Trades Report

Copper Parts Up 30%, Builders at 2012 Low, Twin Cities Late Freeze

Trades Report — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 17:05:37 -0600

The Twin Cities still hasn't had its first freeze, and that changes when HVAC and roofing crews get calls. This week we cover who is booking work, why remodeling is doing better than new construction, and how copper, steel, asphalt and lumber prices affect your margins.

In this episode:

October was the third-warmest on record and November opened at 71 degrees. If the airport stays above 32°F past Nov 18, it will be the latest first freeze on record.
EIA expects a gas-heated Midwest home to spend $613 this winter, down 10%. Electric heat is forecast at $1,380 (up 3%) and propane at $1,305 (down 4%). EIA also warns that a strong El Niño could bring big weather swings.
September housing starts ran at an annual pace of 1,221,000, down 7.4% on the year. Single-family starts were 859,000 and permits were 1,400,000.
The NAHB builder index fell to 29, the lowest since June 2012. 43% of builders cut prices and 65% used sales incentives.
The NAHB remodeling index rose to 62 in Q3. Small jobs under $20,000 scored highest, at 73.
Freddie Mac's 30-year rate averaged 7.24% on Oct 29, up from 6.17% a year ago. Homeowners are staying put and fixing what they have.
LME copper closed at $14,140 per metric ton, down from its $14,875 record. Copper and brass mill shapes are up 30.0% on the year, steel mill products are up 27.6% and asphalt is up 17.1%.
The Madison's framing lumber index fell 7.2% on the week to $459.10, but the government's softwood lumber index is still up 14.2% on the year. ABC says construction input prices are up 11.2% on the year.

Sources:

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Full transcript

Mara Quist: Seventy-one degrees. That's how November opened in the Twin Cities, according to MPR News. October was the third-warmest on record. And the airport still hasn't hit its first freeze. If it stays above thirty-two past November eighteenth, that's the latest first freeze on record. So... if you run a furnace crew, your phone is probably quieter than you'd like for the first week of November.
Mara Quist: And that's what I want to talk about today. The tune-up calendar. Not the one printed on the fridge magnet you hand out. The real one, the one the weather sets. Right now the weather is running late, and that changes who calls you, when they call, and what you can charge when they do.
Mara Quist: Okay so. Start with the forecast. MPR says colder air shows up Thursday. But colder isn't freezing, and no freeze is forecast yet. For HVAC, that means furnace calls will likely come later than usual. For roofers it's the other way around. You've got a longer working season than you'd normally get. Same weather, two completely different effects on your schedule.
Mara Quist: Here's the catch on the heating side. The federal Energy Information Administration expects a gas-heated home in the Midwest to spend about six hundred thirteen dollars on heat from November through March. That's down ten percent. Lower gas prices, plus a winter they figure runs about two percent warmer than last year. Electric heat is the exception. EIA has that at thirteen hundred eighty dollars, up three percent. Propane, thirteen hundred five, down four.
Mara Quist: So think about the homeowner. It's warm out. They're hearing heating bills will be lower. Nothing about that says "call the furnace guy today." That's the demand problem in one sentence. The urgency isn't there yet. And when it does show up, it'll show up all at once.
Mara Quist: One more thing from EIA, and I'd take it seriously. They warn a strong El Niño could make this winter swing hard. Warm stretches, then sharp cold. That's the worst kind of winter for a service calendar. Dead weeks, then a wall of no-heat calls on the first real cold night.
Mara Quist: Now. Who IS booking? Let's zoom out from the weather. New construction is weak. Census reported on October twentieth that September housing starts ran at an annual pace of one million, two hundred twenty-one thousand. That's five point two percent below August and seven point four percent below a year ago. To be fair, Census says both of those changes are inside the margin of error, so don't read too much into one month. Single-family starts came in at eight hundred fifty-nine thousand, down four point six percent. Permits were one point four million, about flat on the month, down three percent on the year.
Mara Quist: Builders are feeling it. The NAHB builder confidence index fell three points in October to twenty-nine. Twenty-nine! That's the lowest since June of 2012. Forty-three percent of builders cut prices, the biggest share since at least 2020. Sixty-five percent were using sales incentives. That's a lot of builders trying to move houses that aren't moving.
Mara Quist: But. Remodeling is a different story. NAHB's remodeling index went up a point in the third quarter, to sixty-two. Current conditions held at seventy. Leads climbed to fifty-three. Backlogs climbed to fifty-six. And here's the number I'd circle... small jobs, under twenty thousand dollars, scored highest of anything, at seventy-three.
Mara Quist: Why the split? Mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's thirty-year rate averaged seven point two four percent on October twenty-ninth. That's down a little from seven point three two the week before, but it's up from six point one seven a year ago. If you've got a cheap mortgage, you're not trading it in for one over seven percent. You stay put. And you fix what you've got.
Mara Quist: So that's who's booking. Homeowners staying in the house they own. Not the builder down the road with incentives on half the lots. The repair, the replacement, the small project. Tune-ups fit right in there. Small ticket, done in the house they're keeping. That's exactly the kind of work that's holding up.
Mara Quist: Okay. Materials. And this is where your margins get decided.
Mara Quist: Copper first. Kitco reported that London Met...

Copper Pipe Up 30%, Lumber Falling: Is Booked Out Six Weeks Safe?

Trades Report — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:50:10 -0600

If your calendar is booked six weeks out, are you locking in prices that won't hold by the time the job starts? This week we look at the latest data on materials, housing starts, remodeling demand and Twin Cities permits to separate the signal from the noise.

In this episode:

Building material prices rose 0.4% in September and 5.5% over the year, the biggest annual gain since December 2022. Plywood was up 15.9%, diesel was up 115.2%, and total home-building input costs were up 10.3%.
Framing lumber fell to $459.10 per thousand board feet on Madison's index, down 7.2% in a week. The wholesale lumber price index is still about 8.7% higher than a year ago.
LME copper slipped to $14,140 a ton, its first monthly drop since June, after a record $14,875 in September. The index for copper and brass mill shapes, which covers pipe and tube, is about 30% higher than a year ago.
The asphalt shingle price index eased 1.8% in September to 370.4, but it is still about 3.7% above last year.
September housing starts ran at an annual pace of 1,221,000, down 7.4% from a year ago. Single-family starts were 859,000, and completions were 14% below last year. The next Census release is November 18.
NAHB's Remodeling Market Index rose to 62. Large projects rose to 66, and backlog and incoming leads each gained 2 points.
Labor shortages, made worse by immigration enforcement and competition from data-center construction, are making projects take longer.
Minneapolis is speeding up home-improvement permits: roof approvals now take one day, and kitchens and room additions take four days. The EIA expects Midwest natural gas heating bills to fall 10% this winter.

Sources:

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Full transcript

Mara Quist: Five point five percent. That's how much building material prices rose over the past year, according to the National Association of Home Builders. It's the biggest annual jump since December 2022. And here's the weird part... framing lumber is FALLING. So which one is it? Both. Okay, let's sort the signal from the noise.
Mara Quist: I'm Mara Quist, this is Trades Report, and my question this week is the same one it always is. Booked out how far, at what price? Today's title is Booked Out Six Weeks. I'll be straight with you, that's not a number from the data. It's a question. If your calendar is six weeks deep right now, is that a good thing? Or are you locking in prices that won't hold up when you actually start the job?
Mara Quist: Let's start with demand. Who's actually calling. And the clearest answer this week comes from remodelers, not builders. NAHB's Remodeling Market Index came in at 62 for the third quarter. That's up one point. Current conditions held at 70... the third quarter in a row at that level. In this data, flat is good.
Mara Quist: Now look inside that number, because that's where it gets useful. Large projects, fifty thousand dollars and up, rose two points to 66. Small jobs, under twenty thousand, slipped one point to 73. Small jobs still score higher overall. But the momentum? It's moving toward the bigger tickets. Then there are the two lines I care about most. Backlog rose two points. Incoming leads rose two points. That's how deep the calendar is and how fast new work is coming in, and both went up together.
Mara Quist: New construction is a different story. Census put September housing starts at an annual pace of 1,221,000. That's down 5.2% from August and 7.4% from a year ago. Single-family starts were 859,000, down 4.6% from August. Permits were 1,400,000, about flat for the month and down 3% on the year. And completions were 14% below a year ago. The next Census release is November 18, so mark that.
Mara Quist: So here's my read. Builders are pulling back and remodelers are holding steady. If most of your work comes from new construction, your pipeline is getting thinner. If you work on homes people already own, the data says homeowners are still signing, and they're signing for bigger projects.
Mara Quist: But wait... there's a catch. NAHB also flags labor as a real squeeze. They point to labor shortages made worse by immigration enforcement and by competition from data-center construction. And they say it's making projects take longer. So part of that rising backlog might not be extra demand. It might be the same jobs taking longer to get done. More leads and slower crews look the same on your calendar. Keep that in mind for the next segment.
Mara Quist: Okay. Materials. And this is where the six-week question starts to cost money.
Mara Quist: Lumber first. Madison's index had framing lumber at $459.10 per thousand board feet as of October 30. That's down 7.2% in a week, 9.4% in a month, and 4.4% from a year ago. That's from NAHB's November 2 update. So that's good news, right? Mostly. The government's producer price index for lumber, which tracks wholesale prices, was 282.3 in September. That's down 1.4% from August and about 3% below the July peak. But it's still about 8.7% higher than last September. So the spot price is falling, but what's already moving through the supply chain is still up on the year. Your yard's prices might take a while to catch up.
Mara Quist: Now copper. Plumbers, electricians, this part is for you. Copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped 1.5% to $14,140 a metric ton on October 30. It was headed for a 1.8% loss for October. That's the first monthly decline since June, and it came after a record $14,875 in September. Reuters blamed worries about the returns on AI spending and weak tech stocks. So, a small pullback, from a record high.
Mara Quist: And here's what matters for your actual quotes. The price index for copper and brass mill shapes, which covers pipe and tube, was 835.3 in September. That's about 30% above a year earlier. Thirty percent. If you've got a repipe on the calendar six weeks out, priced off a number you put together this summer... ...