Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)

Who Will Win?

Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)

Cookie Poll

Three Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)

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Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

Presidential General Election (RealClear Politics)

Coronavirus

Coronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)

Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)

Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)

Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)

Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)

If you are interested in learning about starting your own podcast, or you have a podcast and want to improve production, distribution, or marketing, contact Richard Fawal at Junto Media, https://juntomedia.co.

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Who Different Groups Supported (New York Times)

National Democratic Primary

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Coronavirus

Trump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)

Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)

Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)

Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)

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Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)

Coronavirus

Trump and the Coronavirus (CNN)

Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)

Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)

About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)

92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)

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National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Corona Beer and the Coronavirus

The Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)

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Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Republicans Increasingly Feel Like They’re ‘Winning’ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)

Cornoavirus

How do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)

High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)

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Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)

Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)

Nevada Primary

Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)

South Carolina Primary

South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)

Americans and the Election

Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)

Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

National General Election

National General Election(RealClear Politics)

Bogus Respondents

Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)

Chucking a Dead Chicken

Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)

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National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)

Trump Approval 

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)

Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)

Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)

Impeachment Vote

Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)

Valentine’s Day

Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)

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Iowa Primary

The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.

The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.

Models in Polling

A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers. 

The Silent Trump Vote

It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election. 

Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538

Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!

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National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News)

Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov)

Iowa Primary

Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College)

New Hampshire Primary

New Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist)

California Primary

Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Trump Impeachment

Americans still divided on Trump’s removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News)

General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)

Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump’s use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico)

Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac)

Eating Meat

Nearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup)

Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup)

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Who's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight)

Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight)

Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR)

Trump Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup)

General Election

General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)

Trump Impeachment

Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth)

By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trump’s Removal (Pew Research Center)

Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult)

New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group)

Abortion Laws

Do state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center)

Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup)

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Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight)

Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos)

Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos)

2020 General Election

National General Election (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing)

Trump Approval/Impeachment

Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)

Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

Issues That Matter to Voters

Several Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup)

Iran

Majority supports Trump’s decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult)

More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist)

Majority of U.S. Public Says Trump’s Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center)

The Oscars

Which Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter)

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U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era (Gallup)

Democratic Polling for Debate

DNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes)

Democratic Primary

Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News)

Biden Is Democrats’ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult)

Trump Job Approval/Impeachment

Trump Job Approval (Real Clear)

Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear)

A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal (FiveThirtyEight)

Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll)

Iran

Can You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult)

What Americans Think About Trump’s Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov)

Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos)

Celebrities and Politics

When Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

#MeToo/Time’s Up

Americans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS)

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In Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast)

2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics)

2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics)

2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics)

2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

2020 Presidential Election

Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Trump Impeachment

Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)

Most Admired Man

Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup)

Fun Charts of 2019

Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research)

The 56 Best — And Weirdest — Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight)

What Black Americans Want

A Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES)

New Year, New You

Top 10 New Year’s Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.)

Almost Half of People Stick to a New Year’s Resolution (Ipsos)

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What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight)

Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)

Trump Approval/Impeachment

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News)

Peace at Thanksgiving

Only About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov)

Dumbest Takes on Polling

Why public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch)

The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch)

Year in Review

Bullock Misses First Debate (New York Times)

Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times)

Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon)

Holiday Shopping

2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF)

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Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)

Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac)

Trump Approval / Impeachment

Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)

Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics)

Who was the better President?

Democrats answer! (Monmouth)

Trust in the media

Republicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research)

UK Elections

Love, Actually?

Current predictions (YouGov)

Travel

What do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven)

Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov)

Christmas Trees

Real versus Artificial (YouGov)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

The Economist/You Gov Poll

California Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times)

Impeachment

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

UK Election

Europe Poll of Polls (Politico)

The key findings from our MRP (YouGov)

Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote ‘tactically’ in General Election (ERS)

Giving Tuesday

Giving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios)

‘All I Want For Christmas’ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboard’s Holiday 100 (Huawei)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News)

Impeachment

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos)

Multi-Party Democracy

What if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon)

British Election

General Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics)

Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft)

Medicare For All

Blue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook)

Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll)

Thanksgiving

More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics)

Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)

Poll: Bloomberg's Potential Run is a Flop With Voters so Far (Politico/Morning Consult)

Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary (Quinnipiac)

Impeachment

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

Framing the Next Step on Impeachment (Navigator)

Immigration/Supreme Court

Immigration/Border Security (Monmouth)

Immigration (CNN/SSRS)

Poll Finds Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Overall, Though More Pronounced Among Conservatives  (Marquette)

Veterans

Go Beyond the ‘Thank You’ (Cohen Veterans Network)

The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation (Pew)

New Poll of U.S. Troops and Veterans Reveals Their Thoughts on Current Military Policies (Smithsonian/Stars & Stripes)

Anxiety Over the Holidays

The worst thing to talk about during the holidays is not politics (YouGov)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (The New York Times Upshot/Siena College)

Poll: Biden Holds Significant Lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; Top Issue is Electing Someone Who Can Beat Trump (The Nevada Independent)

Kentucky Governor - Bevin vs. Beshear (RealClear Politics)

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Impeachment

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

Partisan Opinion on Trump Digs in (Monmouth University Poll)

Trump Approval (Washington Post/ABC Poll)

Fish Pictures

Love at First Bite? (Fishbrain)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Impeachment

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

Partisans Dig In On Impeachment, but Majority of Americans Say Trump Administration Should Cooperate With Inquiry (CBS News)

Worst Impeachment Questions (Mclaughlin & Associates)

Trump Approval Foreign Policy

Trump Approval Foreign Policy (RealClear Politics)

Foreign Policy Approval(Navigator)

Support for Impeaching Trump Soars Among Independents (Reuters/Ipsos)

Syria (CNN/SSRS)

Job Approval Dips, Unfavorable Feelings Climb for President Trump (Grinnell)

Baseball

Is It True Fandom Or Just Rude To Stand During The Entire World Series Game At Nats Park? (DCist)

Halloween

Social Media Influencing Near-Record Halloween Spending (NRF/Propser Insights & Analytics)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April (CNN)

Iowa Caucus (RealClear Politics)

Trump and Impeachment

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Increased Support For Trump Impeachment in Wisconsin (Marquette University Law School)

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

Impeachment Views in 6 Swing States (The Upshot)

Issue of the Week: Religion and Polarization

Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections (PRRI)

In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace (Pew Research)

Groundbreaking Pew Research Study Finds Pews Are Uncomfortable (The Babylon Bee; satire)

Millennials

Majority of Americans Say Parents Are Doing Too Much for Their Young Adult Children (Pew Research)

More work, more sleep: New study offers glimpse of daily life as a millennial (Washington Post)

Twitter

Small Share of U.S. Adults Produce Majority of Tweets (Pew Research)

Team Meghan! (YouGov)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Who Won The Fourth Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight / Ipsos)

Impeachment

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

How To Talk About Impeachment (Navigator)

Issue of the Week: Unskew the Polls

Fox News Pollster Misrepresented Impeachment Poll (Fox News)

Democrats Hold Edge in U.S. Party Affiliation in 3rd Quarter (Gallup)

Everyone Hates Everyone

Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More Personal (Pew Research Center)

Americans Feel Divided On Core Values (Monmouth University Poll)

Syria

Most Americans Do Not Approve of Trump's Move in Syria (YouGov)

Nat's Baseball Isn't Boring

Washington Nationals Fan Confidence Up Heading into NL Wild Card Game (SB Nation FanPulse)

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Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Bullock the only Dem to beat Trump in MT (U. of Montana)

Impeachment

Impeachment Tracker (FiveThirtyEight)

Voters Remain Divided On Impeachment (Quinnipiac)

Public views Ukraine charges as serious, but half say Trump shouldn't be removed (NBC News / The Wall Street Journal)

Majority of Americans say they endorse opening of House impeachment inquiry of Trump (Washington Post / Schar School)

House Republicans show no signs of abandoning Trump on impeachment (Public Opinion Strategies for NRCC)

Issue of the Week: Socialism, Capitalism and Government

Behind Americans’ Views of ‘Socialism’ and ‘Capitalism’ (Pew Research)

Public Expresses Favorable Views of a Number of Federal Agencies (Pew Research)

Vegetables!

Quarter Of Americans Have Never Eaten Vegetables (StudyFinds.org)

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Great Society on Broadway, the poll

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Monmouth Poll numbers Twitter

South Carolina Democratic voters strongly support Joe Biden (Winthrop University)

Trump approval (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: Impeachment (again)

Do Americans Support Impeaching President Trump? (FiveThirtyEight, tracker)

Impeachment Support Up Slightly (Monmouth University)

Support for impeaching Trump rises among independents and Republicans (SSRS for CNN)

Support For Impeachment Grows (Quinnipiac)

Public Support For Impeachment Grows (HuffPost/YouGov)

Majority of Americans and Democrats approve of Trump impeachment inquiry (CBS)

NPR/PBS/Marist

Support for impeachment jumps in new poll (Morning Consult / Politico)

Candy Land!

Favorite Movie Candy Tweet (Lights, Camera Pod)

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Richard Madden’s T-Rex!

Inside Fox News’ polling ‘nerdquarium,’ whose numbers don’t lie whether Trump likes them or not (Los Angeles Times)

2020 Presidential Campaigns

Democratic Primary (RealClear Politics)

One Republican Party, Different Democratic Parties (Echelon Insights)

Trump Job Approval (RealClea Politics)

Latest National General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: Impeachment

Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different? (FiveThirtyEight)

Voters largely unswayed by House Dems’ push for impeachment (Politico)

Would you support or oppose impeachment in this scenario? (YouGov)

National Poll, use of words “removal from office” (Quinnipiac)

Focusing Debates on Trump’s Honesty, Tax Fairness, and Government Shutdowns (Navigator)

President Trump and the Trump Administration (Quinnipiac via pollingreport.com)

Most Americans have heard of the situation with President Trump, Joe Biden and the president of Ukraine (Reuters/Ipsos)

The Steaks are High

How Americans order their steaks and hamburgers (YouGov)

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2020 Democrats (RealClear Politics)

Iowa Voter Survey (David Binder Research for Focus on Rural America)

Iowa Voter Survey (Civiqs - Iowa State University)

The Third Debate Influenced Those Who Watched … But A Lot Of People Didn’t (FiveThirtyEight)

Steve Kornacki Tweet of Crosstabs (NBC News/WSJ via Steve Kornacki)

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: The Workplace

10 facts about American workers (Pew Research)

Do Workers Discriminate against Female Bosses? (Institute of Labor Economics, Germany)

Despite challenges at home and work, most working moms and dads say being employed is what’s best for them (Pew Research)

Union Approval Near 50-Year High (Gallup)

The Art of Bananas

This study is bananas (YouGov)

This drawing explains a surprising amount about your political views (YouGov)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

President Trump trails potential Democratic challengers in 2020 test (WaPo/ABC News)

Latest CNN/SSRS Poll

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: 9-11 and its Impact

Ariel Edwards-Levy tweet of Sept. 2001 CBS Poll

Public Overwhelmingly Backs Bush in Attacks on Afghanistan (Gallup, Oct. 2001)

Bush Job Approval Highest in Gallup History (Gallup, Sept. 2001)

Iraq - Getting In Was Wrong; Getting Out Was Right (Quinnipiac, July 2014)

After 17 years of war in Afghanistan, more say U.S. has failed than succeeded in achieving its goals (Pew Research, Oct. 2018)

Pew Research Polling Data (2018)

Polls on Afghanistan (PollingReport.com)

Majorities of U.S. veterans, public say the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not worth fighting (Pew Research, July 2019)

UFOs and Government Transparency

Americans Skeptical of UFOs, but Say Government Knows More (Gallup)

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Democrats Are Divided On What’s Dividing The Party (Huffington Post/YouGov)

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: Guns

Poll: Most Republicans support assault weapons ban, despite Trump saying 'no appetite' (Politico/Morning Consult)

Trump Approval (Fox News)

What Percentage of Americans Own Guns? (Gallup)

Majority Of Voters Say Climate Change Is An Emergency (Quinnipiac)

Too early for pumpkin spice?

Pumpkin Spice Survey (Accelerant)

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2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

3-Way Lead as Dem 2020 Picture Shifts (Monmouth)

John Anzalone tweet

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)

Issue of the Week: The Economy

Consumer Confidence Index (The Conference Board)

Poll finds a pessimistic America despite current economic satisfaction (NBC News / Wall Street Journal)

All Top Dems Beat Trump As Voters' Economic Outlook Dims (Quinnipiac)

Roughly Half of Trump Voters Would at Least Partially Blame Him for a Recession (Morning Consult)

Most Important Problem (Gallup)

Back to School!

2019 Back-to-School Shopping (Deloitte)

How Did You Feel On Your First Day Back To School When You Were A Kid? (News Center Maine)

This episode of The Pollster was sponsored by The Election Ride Home podcast.

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Democratic Candidates (RealClear Politics)

Elizabeth Warren Had Another Very Good Debate (HuffPo)

Warren Up, Harris Down, But Biden Leads Among U.S. Dems (Quinnipiac)

Gun Laws

Who's to blame for mass shootings? On that, some bipartisan agreement (USA Today/Ispos)

Presidential Power

Republicans Now Are More Open to the Idea of Expanding Presidential Power (Pew Research Center)

Trust in Science

Trust and Mistrust in Americans’ Views of Scientific Experts (Pew Research)

Fun Poll: Are these cities midwestern?

David Montgomery wonders how people think Jacksonville, Florida is in the Midwest (and Kristen blames it all on College Football)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Interest still high in second Dem debate (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Shifting Democratic Lines (Echelon Insights)

Conflicted About Trump: The Americans Disapproving of President Trump While Giving Him Credit on the Economy (Navigator)

Black and Latinx Views

Views on the economy aren’t monolithic (Groundwork Collaborative)

Tech

Americans have become much less positive about tech companies’ impact (Pew Research)

Song of the Summer!

Song of the Summer Rankings (LyricFind, with Billboard)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign (New York Times / The Upshot)

Most Americans disagree with Trump's "go back" tweets (CBS News / YouGov)

Majority of voters say ‘send her back’ chants were racist (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Mueller Testimony

Democrats becoming increasingly skeptical of fairness of Russia probe (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Trust in America

Many Americans think declining trust in the government and in each other makes it harder to solve key problems (Pew Research)

Boris Johnson

How do you feel about Boris Johnson becoming leader? (YouGov)

Boris Johnson has support of two thirds of Tory voters (Opinium / Observer)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets (Reuters)

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Beto O’Rourke and the Value of Polling

Polling is not evil voodoo magic (Kristen Soltis Anderson in the Washington Examiner)

Polling Faux Pas

Incomplete polling for the Democratic Primary (St. Anselm College)

All The Problems With This Anonymous Poll About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (HuffPo coverage of a poll reported in Axios)

More General Election Polling

Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit? (New York Times, “The Upshot”)

Trump Faces Tough Challenge From Top Democratic Candidates in Election Matchup (WSJ/NBC News)

Immigration

Slim majority supports deportation raids (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

More on Presidential Tweeting

Views of Trump’s Twitter Attack on Four Congresswomen Highly Partisan (Ipsos)

State of the Union and Conspiracies (Economist/YouGov)

Ladysports

Do you think if you were playing your very best tennis, you could win a point off Serena Williams? (YouGov)

We Need To Stop Comparing Serena Williams To Men’s Tennis Players (HuffPo)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics Average)

General Election Polling Average (RealClear Politics Average)

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics Average) POLL AVERAGE

Joe Biden Isn’t The Unequivocal 2020 Democratic Front-Runner Anymore (HuffPo)

CNN has new standards for reporting on polls

CNN's transparency questionnaire for polling standards (CNN)

Personal Finances polls

More Optimism about Personal Finances (AP/NORC)

1 in 4 don’t plan to retire despite realities of aging (AP/NORC)

Tariffs and Trade

Divided Country Wary of Tariffs, Trade, Tech (RealClear Opinion Research)

Veterans

Trump Draws Stronger Support From Veterans Than From the Public on Leadership of U.S. Military (Pew Research)

Women’s World Cup!

Polling: Megan Rapinoe for President? (Public Policy Polling)

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Trump Approval

Post-Democratic Debate Polling

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates (SSRS for CNN)

Kamala Harris surges in Iowa as Bernie Sanders suffers after debate (Suffolk University/USA TODAY)

Data from the Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll

Harris Gets Big Debate Bounce While Biden Sinks (Quinnipiac)

Harris Surges After First Democratic Debates (Morning Consult)

Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris Looked Like Winners At The First Debates (HuffPost/YouGov)

Washington Post-ABC News poll

Crisis on the border

Three-quarters of Americans say there's a crisis at the border (SSRS for CNN)

Perceptions of LGBTQ Population

Americans Still Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population (Gallup)

Is America Great Again?

American Pride Hits New Low; Few Proud of Political System (Gallup)

Trump’s July 4th plans

Few Aware of Trump July 4 Speech Plan (Monmouth)

Trends in Fourth of July Foods

What’s In And What’s Out For Fourth Of July Celebrations (Open Mind Strategy for Food Network)

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Democratic voters not fully tuned in to 2020 (AP/NORC)

Most Dems interested in first debates, but not excited (Monmouth)

America’s Political Perceptions

Trump approval (RealClear Politics)

New High in U.S. Say Immigration Most Important Problem (Gallup)

American Bridge 4-State rural and small-town voters (Anzalone Liszt Grove Research)

Democrat interest in climate change (Morning Consult for Sierra Club)

Perception Gaps (More In Common with YouGov)

What the heck is wrong with Gen Z?

Nearly half of young adults no longer wear deodorant (YouGov for Schmidt's Naturals) 

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

The infamous Fox News Polls (FOX News)

Impeachment Talk (Suffolk University / USA Today)

More Impeachment Talk (NBC/Wall Street Journal)

Trump fires pollsters (CNN)

Would voters consider a woman as president?

Nominating Woman or Minority Come Second to Nominating Candidate Who Can Beat Trump (Ipsos / Daily Beast)

Democrats and Rural Voters

The One Country Projection (One Country Project)

Political Discourse in the U.S.

Public Highly Critical of State of Political Discourse in the U.S. (Pew Research)

CBD Products

Four in 10 Say CBD Oil Products Should Be Over-the-Counter (Gallup)

Salad Days

What is the best green to build your salad around? (PRRI)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

More brutal 2020 poll numbers for Trump (Washington Post)

2020 General Matchups (RealClear Politics)

Democratic Nomination (RealClear Politics)

Mike Gravel's Tweet

It’s PRIDE Month!

Gallup First Polled on Gay Issues in '77. What Has Changed? (Gallup)

America’s Growing Support for Transgender Rights (PRRI)

Lord Ashcroft Polls

Candidates are supposed to pay attention to the voters’ backstory, not the other way round

Women

What Women Are Up Against At Work (LeanIn.org with SurveyMonkey)

How to Talk About Americans’ Opposition to Abortion Bans (Navigator)

Aspiring Pollsters

Sean Trende's son's Survey

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Trump Voters Who Heard Mueller Decline To Clear Trump Still Think His Report Clears Trump (HuffPost/YouGov)

Made-up news

Many Americans Say Made-Up News Is a Critical Problem That Needs To Be Fixed (Pew Research)

Millennial, Gen Z, and Gen X voters

Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X outvoted older generations in 2018 midterms (Pew Research)

America’s moral values

Americans Say U.S. Moral Values Not Good and Getting Worse (Gallup)

The future of abortion

A majority of Americans think abortion will still be legal in 30 years, but with some restrictions (Pew Research)

Democrats and “women’s issues”

A growing number of Democratic voters are prioritizing gender-related issues (Morning Consult via Vox)

The census and citizenship

The Fate of Pluralism in a Divided Nation (PRRI)

Trump Approval

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Sen. Michael Bennet’s qualification for Democratic debates

Steve Kornacki's tweet

Patrick Ruffini's tweet

Summer Vacation

More Americans are skipping summer vacations this year

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President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Trump Character Ratings Improved, but Still a Weakness (Gallup) 

Dem (and GOP?) Primary

Democratic Dividing Lines (Echelon Insights)

Nearly Half of Democrats Say the Best Age for a President Is ‘In Their 50s’ (Pew Research)

Economic satisfaction, Capitalism, and Socialism

Framing the Debate on the Economy and Presidential Transparency (Navigator)

Black community survey

More Black than Blue: Politics and Power in the 2019 Black Census (Black Futures Lab)

Brits support Trump visit in the UK

Brits support Trump visit (YouGov via Politico EU)

Swimming Pools, Tuna Stars

Around 3 in 10 adults haven't swam in more than 10 years (John West)

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President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)

Fox News Poll 5/16

Biden Is Only Contender With Positive Score (Quinnipiac)

Most Democrats Are Fine With Their Candidates Doing Fox News Town Halls (Morning Consult/Politico)

Black Voters and Gender Identity Politics

New poll shows black voters want 2020 candidates with big policy plans, not just big names (BlackPAC via Vox)

Who White Democrats Vote For In 2020 Could Be Shaped By Why They Think Clinton Lost (FiveThirtyEight)

Abortion Laws

Majority of Americans don't want Roe v. Wade overturned (CBS News)

Ariel Edwards-Levy Tweet Here’s Why Alabama’s New Abortion Law Is So Unpopular (HuffPo/YouGov)

The Economy...and Socialism?

Americans' View of Job Market Hits New High (Gallup)

Four in 10 Americans Embrace Some Form of Socialism (Gallup)

Australian Election

The eight charts that help explain why the Coalition won the 2019 Australian election (The Guardian)

2019 Australia election in 11 charts (BBC)

Game Of Thrones...for the last time?

What Game of Thrones Watchers Think Ahead of Final Episode (Firehouse Strategies / Optimus)

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Are You Secretly a Millennial? (The New York Times)

2020 primaries

Bullock hires senior staffers ahead of likely presidential run (The Hill)

What traits are Democrats prioritizing in 2020 candidates? (CBS News / YouGov)

Maryland GOP voters widely favor Trump over Larry Hogan for White House (Gonzales Research & Media Services via The Washington Post)

Less Than Half in U.S. Would Vote for a Socialist for President (Gallup)

Political Intelligence (Morning Consult)

Trump

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Americans' support for impeaching Trump rises (Reuters/Ipsos)

Speaking with Journalists

It’s more common for white, older, more-educated Americans to have spoken with local journalists (Pew Research)

Game of Thrones (SPOILER ALERT)

Here’s Who ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Think Is Most Likely to Die in the Final Season (Morning Consult)

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New Navigator Survey

Trump and Democrats’ Enthusiasm

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Democrats lose their enthusiasm advantage (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)

Voter Approval Rising for Trump’s Handling of the Economy (Wall Street Journal/NBC News)

AG Barr and the Mueller Report

Little support for Barr’s handling of Mueller report (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

2020 Campaigns

The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

Latest National General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)

Monmouth on Capitalism vs. Socialism

Socialism not seen as compatible with American values, but opinion is not overwhelmingly negative (Monmouth University)

Foreign Policy

America Adrift: How the U.S. Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want (GBAO/Center for American Progress)

Voters Want an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy (Just Not Trump’s) (GBAO/Center for American Progress)

Democrats are playing down foreign policy. (GBAO/Center for American Progress)

Pew on Diversity

Americans See Advantages and Challenges in Country’s Growing Racial and Ethnic Diversity (Pew Research)

Pew on Methodology

When Online Survey Respondents Only ‘Select Some That Apply’ (Pew Research)

Met Gala Dress

Which Musician Had Your Favorite Met Gala 2019 Look? (Billboard)

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Percentage of Democrats who see border ‘crisis’ jumps 17 points since January amid spike in migrant families (Washington Post / ABC News)

A poll found Mexicans think relations with the U.S. are better than before. Ignoring Trump may be the secret. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs / Buendía & Laredo)

Trump, Mueller, and Impeachment

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll on impeachment

CNN/SSRS Poll on impeachment and Trump approval

31% believe Trump is exonerated after Mueller report, 56% oppose impeachment (ABC News/Washington Post)

Democrats for President 2020

Democratic Dividing Lines (Echelon Insights omnibus)

Democrats largely uncommitted to 2020 candidates (Washington Post / ABC News)

Biden solidifies front-runner status with post-announcement bump (CNN / SSRS)

The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)

Biden Surging Among Democrats In Presidential Race (Quinnipiac)

New Hampshire Marginals (Suffolk University)

Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)

Stress in America

Americans' Stress, Worry and Anger Intensified in 2018 (Gallup)

Game of Thrones Predictions

Our “Game Of Thrones” Poll Accurately Predicted The First Death In The Battle Of Winterfell (Quartz)

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President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Mueller Report

The conservative talking point of “exoneration” has failed to break through (Navigator Research via Politico)

2020 Democrat Race

Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination, Mayor Pete On The Move (Emerson Polling)

If Daily Kos decided the presidential race, it would be a four-person race (Daily KOS)

New From Pew

Sharp Rise in the Share of Americans Saying Jews Face Discrimination (Pew Research)

Little Public Support for Reductions in Federal Spending (Pew Research)

Parenting & Society

School Safety and Shootings (AP-NORC)

Game of Thrones

This Game Of Thrones Poll Says A LOT About The 2020 Election (Anvil Strategies)

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Amid the tumult of the Trump era, the constant: His approval rating (Washington Examiner)

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

2020 Polling?

Biden tops Democratic field after rough week (Politico / Morning Consult)

Women voters could give women candidates a boost in the Democratic primary (Morning Consult)

The Fairness of Taxes

Growing Partisan Divide Over Fairness of the Nation’s Tax System (Pew Research)

Few Americans think they’re getting a Trump tax cut (NBC / Wall Street Journal)

Twitter Dems vs Voting Dems

The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate (The Upshot)

Happy Happy Dog Dog

Dog owners are much happier than cat owners (General Social Survey reported by The Washington Post))

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Trump’s Approval Rating (RealClear Politics)

Views of Trump’s personal traits, job approval (Pew Research)

Most want to see Mueller report released (Ariel Edwards-Levy)

Changing America

Jason McGrath of GBAO talks about Lightfoot in Chicago

Voters Say Scrap Elite School Test in NY (Quinnipiac)

On Equal Pay Day 2019, lack of awareness persists (SurveyMonkey)

2020

Among all voters, half say they are ‘very uncomfortable’ with Trump for 2020 (NBC News / Wall Street Journal)

18-29-year-olds Likely Democratic Primary Voters Prefer Sanders (Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School)

The World

Large Majorities in Both Parties Say NATO Is Good for the U.S. (Pew Research)

NCAA Basketball Final Four

Michigan State has America’s support after beating Duke to reach Final Four (and Kristen loves J.J. Redick)

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Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

Voters want Mueller report released, but will it change views? (FOXNews, pre-report delivery)

CNN/SSRS Poll (post-report delivery)

U.S. Voters Want To See Mueller Report (Quinnipiac, both pre- and post-summary delivery)

Nearly half still think Trump obstructed Russian probe (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Despite report findings, almost half of Americans think Trump colluded with Russia (Reuters/Ipsos)

These Ordinary Americans Discussed the Mueller Investigation. Here's Their Surprising

Consensus (GBAO Strategies for Protect The Investigation, reported in Time)

Trump, Tweets, and White Supremacy (Quinnipiac)

2020 and the Future

Iowa 2020: Biden and Sanders neck and neck (Emerson)

The Spirit of South Bend (Kristen Soltis Anderson in Forum Axess)

Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts (Pew)

Voters prefer popular vote over Electoral College (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Drunk Shopping

The 2019 Drunk Shopping Census (The Hustle)

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GOP Fox News Viewers Say Trump Is Best President Ever (Navigator)

Trump and White Nationalism

Trump Favorable/Unfavorable (RealClear Policy)

Fewer Than 20 Percent Of Americans Say Trump Opposes White Nationalism (HuffPost/YouGov)

The Mueller Report

60 percent have some confidence in fairness of Mueller probe (The Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)

Half of Americans say Trump is victim of a 'witch hunt' as trust in Mueller erodes (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)

2020

Harris climbs in the Democratic race, as enthusiasm starts high for both parties (CNN/SSRS)

For 2020, Most Democrats Prefer an Experienced Political Insider (Morning Consult/Politico)

Sanders Tied with Biden; O’Rourke Gets Post-Announcement Bump (Emerson)

Are Independents Real?

Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think (Pew Research)

AOC and Amazon

2/3 of Voters Say Amazon Cancelling Queens HQ Bad for NY (Siena College)

College Admissions

Large majority says college admissions unfairly favor wealthy, well-connected (Suffolk University/USA Today)

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Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

Weld, Hogan lag far behind Trump in GOP contest (Monmouth)

Iowa Poll: Registered Republicans like Trump but 40 percent want a GOP challenger (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom)

O Canada!

Canada Votes 2019 Poll Tracker (CBCNews)

Across the Pond

Most Britons see no improvement in May's latest plan (Sky News)

Half of UK voters want Theresa May to resign (Politico)

On a scale from 1 to 10, how much do the numbers used in survey scales really matter? (Pew Research)

Dame It All To Hell

Republicans see equality for women. Democrats don't. (Politico/Morning Consult)

Witty Women Are Less Likely To Get Promoted Than Men (University of Arizona)

St. Patrick’s Day Party Cities

2019’s Best Cities for St. Patrick’s Day Celebrations (WalletHub)

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U.S. Voters Oppose Trump Emergency Powers On Wall (Quinnipiac)

60 percent of Americans oppose Trump's emergency declaration to fund wall (NBC/WSJ via  The Hill)

Trump gets some good news from an NBC poll but bad news from Quinnipiac

2020 race will be uphill for Trump (NBC/WSJ)

64 Percent Of U.S. Voters Say Trump Committed A Crime (Quinnipiac)

Impeachment Support Inches Up (Monmouth)

Dem 2020 Catch-up: “a lover not a fighter”

President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

2020 race will be uphill for Trump, but he has strong party loyalty (NBC/WSJ)

A Survey Of Florida Voters (Bendixen & Amandi)

Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke Tie Trump In Texas (Quinnipiac)

2020 Primaries (Morning Consult)

Democratic Voters Would Rather Have a Leader Who Heals Than Fights (Morning Consult)

The 2019 Infinite Dial! (Edison Research & Triton Digital)

Polling the pollsters...How is the political campaign industry doing? (PSB Research for Campaigns & Elections)

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Stabilizing, but what does it mean? (Real Clear Politics)

The Manafort sentencing memo indicates 75 pages of polling data were shared with Konstantin Kilimnik, so we speculate wildly what it might have been.

Kristin’s Washington Examiner column

2020 Democrats, a Deep Dive

Fewer than 3-in-10 Dems have 'strong opinion' about 2020 nominee (Politico / Morning Consult)

The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)=

Democratic Voters’ Second Choices Show How Fluid The 2020 Primary Race Is (FiveThirtyEight analysis of Morning Consult tracking poll)

Releasing the Mueller Report Publicly

Majority wants Mueller report released to the public (Politico / Morning Consult)

Has there been a shift in attitudes on abortion?

Americans’ Opinions on Abortion (Marist for Knights of Columbus)

A new poll shows a spike in pro-life sentiment. Don’t panic — or declare victory. (Davis Byler in The Washington Post)

Pew switches to online polls

What our transition to online polling means for decades of phone survey trends (Pew Research)

TAKE A NAP!

Poll: National Public Sleeping Day (News12 Long Island) 

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Happy Presidents Day! History is hard (Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation)

Trump job approval, Mr 44%! And the national emergency becomes...more popular?

President Trump Job Approval (Real Clear Politics)

6-In-10 Disapprove Of Trump's Declaration Of A National Emergency (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)

And the Oscar for Top Issue goes to…

Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem (Gallup)

How with the 2020 polls influence the Dem debates?

The details for the first 2 presidential primary debates (Politico)

Biden maintains lead in 2020 Democratic field (Emerson)

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders have edge in 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary (UMass)

Understanding Shifts in Democratic Party Ideology (Gallup)

How would people feel if their child married someone of the other party or…?

American Democracy in Crisis: The Fate of Pluralism in a Divided Nation (PRRI)

Teens and anxiety

Most U.S. Teens See Anxiety and Depression as a Major Problem Among Their Peers (Pew Research)

OSCARS!

Oscars 2019 — Best Motion Picture (IMDB)

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Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable (Real Clear Politics)

The work of Mueller and “Mister Peepers”!

Mueller Poll Shows Very Few Republicans Believe Russia Interfered In 2016 Election (HuffPost/YouGov)

Most Americans in new poll support Democratic investigations of Trump administration (Global Strategy Group /GBA Strategies for Restore Public Trust)

More voters back Mueller probe, say it has 'uncovered crimes' (Navigator Research)

Mister Peepers, the Ballad of Rod Rosenstein (song by Ben Folds)

It's time to start looking at the 2020 polls a little more seriously.

Announced/Potential Democratic Presidential Candidate Name Recognition Results (Saint Anselm College / New Hampshire Institute of Politics)

Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t (FiveThirtyEight)

National Tracking Poll (Morning Consult / Politico)

“Well Virginia they didn’t give you quite enough information!”

About a third of Americans say blackface in a Halloween costume is acceptable at least sometimes (Pew Research)

Virginians are split on governor’s fate amid blackface scandal, poll shows (Washington Post/Schar School)

How people are feeling about their finances.

Americans' Confidence in Their Finances Keeps Growing (Gallup)

Valentine’s Day!

Three Months’ Salary for an Engagement Ring? For Most People, It’s More Like Two Weeks (Morning Consult for The Upshot)

Men have higher expectations for Valentine’s Day than women (Bankrate)

Celebrating Valentine's Day with your dog? Survey says that's not weird (Rover.com)

One-in-three women have been disappointed in a partner’s Valentine’s Day actions (YouGov)

This is what men and women really want for Valentine’s Day (YouGov)

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Poll: More than half will definitely vote against Trump (Politico/Morning Consult)

Speech audience was most partisan since 2001 (CNN/SSRS)

Most viewers approved of Trump's second State of the Union address (CBS News)

And what of 2020? With more and more contenders jumping in, we will take a look at Trump’s re-election prospects and what we can know about the Dem field.

President Trump Job Approval (Real Clear Politics)

Most Democrats say bring on Biden (CNN/SSRS)

California Dems Excited About Biden And Harris (Quinnipiac)

Wealth taxes, Medicare for all, and the Green New Deal are the big policy pushes from Dems...we will look at some new polling on wealth taxes.

Warren’s Proposed Tax on Wealthy Draws More Support Than Ocasio-Cortez’s (Morning Consult)

There’s been a lot of apologizing lately. Do people think public officials should have to apologize for things like blackface? And speaking of apologies, how would the Brits do it?

Only 58 percent of Americans oppose blackface (YouGov via Washington Post)

Most Brits think “I’m sorry for any offence caused” is a proper apology (YouGov)

Big game ads! What were the favorites?

2019 Ad Meter Results (USAToday)

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The bleeding has stopped but the patient could use a transfusion...how will Roger Stone and the kick-the-can Shutdown delay impact POTUS numbers?

ProtectTheInvestigation.org (GBS Strategies)

America is heading in the wrong direction (NBC/WSJ)

President Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)

President Trump’s marks on the economy slip (The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)

Socialism...so hot right now, or like trying to make fetch happen? How many early aughts movie references can I jam into this section?

2019 World Economic Forum (Axios/SurveyMonkey)

Turning up the 2020 talk on our 200th episode...Can a primary challenge to Trump survive? How much traction could a Howard Schultz candidacy get? What are Dems looking for?

Inside Democratic coalition, three groups show fissures (NBC News/Wall Street Journal )

Democrats’ 2020 presidential contest is wide open as danger mounts for Trump (Washington Post/ABC)

Josh Krashauer tweet about Schultz poll

SNACK INDEX!

First-Ever Frito-Lay U.S. Snack Index Reveals Super Bowl Snacking Picks (Frito-Lay North America/Morning Consult)

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The shutdown continues to take its toll on federal workers and begins to take a more serious toll on the President’s political standing.

Pelosi has edge over Trump on budget negotiations (CBS News)

Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

6 in 10 Americans blame Trump for shutdown (Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)

Voters see shutdown as bigger problem than border situation (FOX News)

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll

How un/popular is Donald Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)

President Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)

Cardi B reminds us that the last shutdown was about healthcare. Where do voters stand on ACA and its alternatives like Medicare for all?

Public Opinion on Single-Payer, National Health Plans, and Expanding Access to Medicare Coverage (Kaiser Family Foundation)

More Americans are saying climate change is personally important to them.

Global Warming Concerns Rise Among Americans (Yale University and George Mason University)

The “Brexit” is when you tell people you’re leaving but don’t actually go anywhere. The opposite of that? Ghosting. What do people think is acceptable “ghosting” on Tinder?

How Do You Calculate The Emotional Cost Of Ghosting Someone? (BuzzFeed News)

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We are now in the longest shutdown in the history of the US government. Is either side feeling political pain yet? And how widespread is the pain everyday people and government workers are feeling?  And what’s the shutdown over? The Wall of course. Still unpopular, but as people move into their partisan camps, different polls tell different stories about whether the wall is becoming more or less popular overall.

Americans blame Trump and GOP much more than Democrats for shutdown (WaPo/ABC News)

Half of Americans fault Trump for shutdown (Reuters)

Most Americans Hold Trump Responsible For Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)

Most Border Wall Opponents, Supporters Say Shutdown Concessions Are Unacceptable (Pew)

Voters support Democratic proposal to reopen parts of the government that do not involve border security (Quinnipiac)

Trump Approval (and Pelosi)

ThePresident’s job approval trends downward at a slightly faster clip, as Nancy Pelosi proves my “everybody loves a winner” theory of politics correct.

Huffpo Tracker

Real Clear Politics Tracker

Trump, Congress Job Approval Mostly Steady Amid Shutdown (Gallup)

Opposing Trump is making Nancy Pelosi more popular (WaPo article on Civiqs and Gallup polls)

2020

Deep, Lasting Partisan Splits on Immigration, Investigating President Trump (GW Poll)

Generation Z

Defining generations: Where Millennials end and Generation Z begins (Pew)

With The Greatest Respect

Half Of Americans 'can’t Tell When A Brit Is Calling Them An Idiot’ (YouGov UK)

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Why it would it—or wouldn’t it—be a big deal for a foreign intelligence operation to have internal polling data from a campaign?

Shutdown

Voters blame Trump, GOP for shutdown (POLITICO/Morning Consult)

Trump Has Lost Ground In The Shutdown Blame Game (FiveThirtyEight)

Congressional Priorities

Government Gets an Upgrade (Navigator)

Americans' Long List for Congress Spans Education to Income (Gallup)

2020

Elizabeth Warren wins the first Daily Kos 2020 Presidential Straw Poll (Daily Kos)

Daily Kos Democratic Straw Poll, inaugural edition!

American Ideology by Gallup

U.S. Still Leans Conservative, but Liberals Keep Recent Gains

Americans Continue to Embrace Political Independence

#MeToo

Celebrity Soapbox on #MeToo Issues Creates Positive Change, Plurality Says (Morning Consult)

Doggos

Republicans Like Dogs More Than Democrats (YouGov/The Economist)

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Poll of the Week

What do Democrats want in 2020? (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)

The Shutdown

Americans Give Everyone Negative Marks For The Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)

Federal Employees Overwhelmingly Oppose Shutdown (Government Business Council & GovExec.com)

47% of Americans blame Trump for government shutdown (Reuters/Ipsos)

Trump Approval(HuffPo)

Climate Change

Consensus emerges in climate change debate (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)

How American Thinking Has (And Hasn’t) Changed In 80 Years (HuffPo/YouGov)

New Years Resolutions (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)

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They discuss how the typical American community isn’t a small town that voted for Donald Trump to counterbalance Hillary Clinton’s lopsided margin in the cities. By definition, it’s something in between. This usually means that it’s a small city with surrounding suburbs, mainly located in the Northeast and Midwest, that not only was closely contested in 2016 but closely resembles the social and demographic characteristics of the country as a whole.

Kristen and Patrick also talk about the accuracy of election polling and the "new" tech that drives every election.

You can subscribe to Patrick's newsletter at EchelonInsights.com/TheIntersection.

The Pollsters is on hiatus next week but will be back in 2019! Happy holidays! 

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The somewhat controversial article addresses the sexism challenges faced by women who work as politics consultants. Kristen and Margie share some of their own experiences with Abby and dig in to the journalistic methods and insights she brought to the project.

This is ann important issue and we're grateful to Abby for taking it on.

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Most Americans don't think that "Die Hard" is a Christmas movie (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

Personal Importance of Hanukkah Varies by Denomination among Jewish Americans (PRRI)

Trump, Democrats, and the USA

Trump Job Approval (HuffPo)

Trump's Political Risk Spreads to Small-Town America (Selzer & Co./Grinnell College)

Democrats Are Divided On The Ideological Future Of Their Party (HuffPo/YouGov)

Americans Not Optimistic About Trump, Democrats Cooperating (Gallup)

Democrats Lead Surge in Belief U.S. Should Be World Leader (Gallup)

Parenting and Family

Millennial Parent and Education (Echelon Insights)

My marriage? Great! Yours? Not so much. (Brookings Institution analysis of American Family Survey by Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy/Deseret News/YouGov)

The Dog Poop Blues

Is it OK to put your dog's poop in someone else's trash can? (Coloradoan)

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Results of the TIME Person of the Year Reader's Poll (BTS WINS!)

Trumplandia and Political Divisions

Trump Approval (HuffPo)

Few Expect Country to Become United (Monmouth)

Americans Want the New Congress to Provide a Check on the White House, Follow Facts in Investigations (Navigator)

Many Americans Are Giving Trump The Benefit Of The Doubt On Manufacturing Jobs (HuffPo/YouGov)

Republicans and Women

The Republican Party and Women in Politics (DemocracyFund Voice)

The Young and The Old

Teens who are constantly online are just as likely to socialize with their friends offline (Pew Research)

People want to live longer, but maybe not to 100 (Axios/SurveyMonkey)

Critical Thinking

87% say they’re open to opposing views, but only 25% seek them out (Reboot Foundation)

Unwelcome Guests

First sign a guest has overstayed his or her welcome? (CantonRep.com)

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First: Kristen has a new show on SiriusXM but The Pollsters will still be here for your data geek love!

Civility & Division

Most Democrats see Republicans as racist, sexist (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Midterm Follow-up

A Mandate for Democrats? (CNN/SSRS)

Public Wants Congress to be a Check on Trump (Monmouth)T

rump approval (HuffPo)

2020 (Already? Really?)

Trump's 2020 woman problem (Axios/Survey Monkey)

Biden, Bernie, Beto lead 2020 Dem field (Politico/Morning Consult)

Exit Polling Is Changing

Edison, the historically popular choice

AP VoteCast, the new kid on the block

Thanksgiving

FavoriteThanksgiving Pies and Activities (The Pioneer Woman)

The Pollsters is taking next week off. From all of us to all of you, have a very Happy Thanksgiving!

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The Pollsters grade the performance of polling across the country in this election and recognize that there are several high profile races where, even though they were within the margin of error, there are likely to be questions about polling reliability.

There are a lot of data yet to sift through and there are sure to be post-election polls in the coming days, so be sure to come back next week to get our analysis of all the post-election numbers. One new poll: American Jewish Voters Strongly Oppose Trump, conducted by GBA Strategies, commissioned by J Street.

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Poll of the Week

Views of voting access linked to opinion on diversity in the U.S. (Pew Research)

Youth

Harvard IOP Youth Poll Fall 2018 (Institute of Politics, Harvard)

Millennials Turnout (NBC/GenForward)

Trump and Republicans

Job Approval (Huffington Post)

Partisan Polarization Dominates Trump Era (PRRI)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Women and the Economy

Red-Hot Economy? Women Aren’t Convinced (New York Times)

Halloween

Most Popular Halloween Costumes 2018 (Google Trends)

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How much is President Trump helping or hurting Republican candidates? The Democrats appear likely to take back the House, but by how much? What are the implications of the massive gender gap that the GOP faces among women, and is this the start of a long-term trend or just a temporary situation?

Margie, Kristen, Ali, and Liesl answer all these questions and more in this week on The Pollsters!

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Midterms & Trump Approval

Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall (CNBC)

Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections (Washington Post/ABC News)

2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)

Trump Job Approval (Huffington Post)

2020 Democratic Primary

More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field (CNN/SSRS)

Immigration

Varied and Changing Attitudes on Immigration in America (Echelon Insights/BGA Strategies for Voters Study Group)

Voter Identity & IssuesHidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape (More In Common)

Young Voters Might Actually Show Up At The Polls This Year (FiveThirtyEight)

Little Partisan Agreement on the Pressing Problems Facing the U.S. (Pew Research)

Television RebootsTV Reboots May Be Losing Their Luster With Viewers (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)

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Generic Congressional (Real Clear Politics)

2018 Midterm Voters: Issues and Political Values (Pew Research)

Gender Differences (CNN/SSRS)

Senate

Latest Senate Polls (Real Clear Politics)

Texas - Tennessee - New Jersey (CBS)

Nevada (NBC/Marist)

Arizona (ABC-15 / OH Predictive Insights)

North Dakota (FOX News)

Florida (Mason-Dixon)

House

House Battleground (Washington Post - Schar School)

Kavanaugh

Economist/YouGov

Majority oppose Kavanaugh, but his popularity grows with GOP (CNN)

Trump

Approval (HuffPo)

Polling Strategies

Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files (Pew Research)

Youth Poll (But not enough about Taylor Swift!)

Young voters energized for midterms (Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement) 

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Trump Gets Negative Ratings for Many Personal Traits, but Most Say He Stands Up for His Beliefs (Pew Research)

“How you feel about GOP loyalty to Trump probably depends on your age” (Kristen in The Washington Examiner)

Kavanaugh Confirmation

Kavanaugh opinion hardens along partisan lines (Politico Morning Consult)

Brett Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford hearing spurs more division (CBS News)

Opposition to Kavanaugh grows after Senate hearing (Reuters/Ipsos)

More U.S. Voters Say Don't Confirm Kavanaugh (Quinnipiac)

Midterms check-in with Optimus Election Modeling

Events with 30% chances do sometimes happen...about one out of three times.

DecisionDesk HQ by OptimusHouse

Generic Polls (Real Clear Politics)

Trump Approval

Trump Approval (HuffPo)

Coffee Is SOOOO Important!

Survey Confirms Coffee Makes the World a Better Place (Nestlé/Morning Consult)

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Florida Governor & SenatePoll: Andrew Gillum leads DeSantis by 4, Rick Scott and Bill Nelson tied (Tampa Bay Times, UFN)Poll: Democrats have narrow lead in top Florida contests (NCBNews.com, Marist)

KavanaughMajority of Americans oppose Kavanaugh nomination if Ford’s allegation is true, poll says (PBS, NPR, Marist)Voters in Battleground Districts Are Divided on Kavanaugh (The Upshot)Record number of voters oppose Kavanaugh nomination (FOX News)

Women, Leadership, and GenderViews on the state of gender and leadership and obstacles for women (Pew Research Center)The State of Gender Equality for U.S. Adolescents (Plan International, PerryUndem)Major gaps in views of women in politics by gender, party affiliation (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)

Trump and the GOPTrump Job Approval (Huffington P0st)Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years (Gallup)2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)Democrats hold the advantage in November's elections (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)

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Poll of the WeekRepublicans, Democrats See Opposing Party as More Ideological Than Their Own (Pew) 

KavanaughCNN poll (pre-Dr. Ford)

The Week In MidtermsHouse GenericNate Cohn’s Poll FactorySenate RacesMontana (CBS)Missouri (CBS)Arizona & Tennessee (CNN)

The Week In TrumpJob Approval (HuffPo)Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to name Trump as a reason for their pick in congressional elections (Washington Post)

New Voter Study Group Papers! Why Americans' Desires for a Third Party Are Unlikely to Come TrueReligious Trump VotersAmericans' Economic Woes are Hurting Trump

Goodbye, Summer.Most Popular Season Coming to an End (Gallup)

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Poll of the Week: Crying

Red States/Blue SenatorsNBC/Marist poll: It's a neck-and-neck Senate race in TennesseePoll: High-profile Missouri Senate race locked in a dead heatNBC/Marist poll: Democrat Joe Donnelly has slight edge in Indiana Senate race

TrumpHuffPost: Trump Job Approval

QPac: U.S. Voters Believe Anonymous Trump Charges 2-1CNN Poll: Trump approval down 6 points in a month, hits low among independents

Nate Cohn is either a lunatic or a geniusPolling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterm Elections

NRA BrandNRA Brand Suffers Lasting DamageNRA Slipping With Voters, Though Many Have Moved on From Gun Control

9/11Defending against terrorism has remained a top policy priority for Americans since 9/11Ariel Edwards-Levy Twitter thread on post-9/11 polling

HurricanesHurricane: Despite Irma, millions of Floridians wouldn’t evacuate from powerful storm heading their way, survey finds

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WP/ABC poll on the Democratic advantage in the midterms

President Trump:

Job Approval

Generic Ballot

Brett Kavanaugh (last name sung to the tune of Van Halen’s “Panama”):

Fox News Poll

CNN Poll

WPA Intelligence Memo

Press Freedom:

Building a Narrative Toward Trust: Echelon Insights + Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

KFF Poll on corruption, healthcare, and the most important issue of the campaigns

Notre Dame and Michigan are Trash (not really, everyone hates Alabama)

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Poll of the week:

Pew. Maybe we *are* entitled to our own facts?

Hot primaries!

RCP: Florida average  

RCP: Arizona average 

Campaign-mania

RCP Generic

538 Forecasts

Trumplandia

HP: Trump's approval 

Pew: The something-something of Trump expectations: 

HP on the slow news day last week

YouGov Toplines

USA Today/Suffolk on investigation

Pumpkin Spice Latte

ABC News 4, Charleston, SC

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14th & G podcast

Tech CEO Council

Polling memo

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Navigator Research

Morning Consult/Politico

CNN

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Hey, need contacts? Get a discount here: --->>

https://www.simplecontacts.com/pollsters

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Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election

RCP Average.

Emerson memo.

Monmouth Crosstabs.

GBA Memo 7/262018

Generic Congressional Vote

President Trump Job Approval

Trump defectors! You might be surprised how FEW there are…

Pew: For Most Trump Voters, “Very Warm” Feelings for him Endured [EMBARGOED LINK]

War with the media rages onward

Republicans: Give Trump the Power to Shut Down Media This is not new.Ipsos Poll on Sentiment Towards American Media

Everybody colludes. Don’t they?

40% of Republicans say Russia election meddling isn't a big deal Trump Jr.’s Meeting Was Wrong, Americans Say, But Fewer See It As Out Of The Norm

Local food!

Americans Still Favor Beer Over Other Alcoholic Beverages

Snapshot: Few Americans Vegetarian or Vegan

Most Americans Try to Eat Locally Grown Foods

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I Can’t Go For That

Trump approval (HuffPo)

Poll Of The Week:

Who do you trust? (CBS)

Say It Isn’t So:

Generic ballot (RCP)

California House

CA-50 (Tulchin Research, July 17-23)

CA-48 (Monmouth)

CA-25 (Global Strategy Group, June 29)

Texas Senate

RCP Averages

Texas LYCEUM Poll

Quinnipiac

Florida Senate

It's still tight (Miami Herald)

More

GOP Praise Trump at Record Rates (Wesleyan)

Dem candidates should be bolder on gun control (GBA Strategies)

Wedding Cakes, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Future of LGBT Rights in America (PRRI)

Maneater: Sharks & Politics

Let’s live every week like it’s shark week

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Americans now think immigration is most important problem (Gallup)

Views on Mexico as an ally are also shifting (Gallup)

Latest Navigator: data on Family Separation

Americans’ views on Government Agencies

Growing Partisan Differences in Views of the FBI; Stark Divide over ICE (Pew Research)

Trump’s approval and the General Ballot, post-Helsinki

Trump’s approval is slightly up (Huffpo)

General ballot has Dems chances rising (Real Clear Politics)

Huge GOP majority backs Trump's Putin performance (Axios / SurveyMonkey)

Little public support for Trump in doubting Russian interference (ABC / Washington Post)

Most Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Putin summit (CBS)

Public gives Trump thumbs-down on Russia (NBC / WSJ)

Lots more data from Navigator on how Americans feel(pre-Helsinki)

Banned Wedding Songs(FiveThirtyEight)

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Poll of the Week:Spouses Report Earnings (Census) (Full Study)

Trump’s UK ApprovalYouGov/ITV (Crosstabs) - 9th-10th July 2018

A BMG poll for The Independent last week asked Brits if Prime Minister May was right to invite Trump. (Toplines)

NATO (Gallup) ToplinesPew (Spring 2017)Economist/YouGov Americans become more anti-Russian under Trump (NBC)Gallup PollingThe Economist/YouGovTrump approval!RCP538Generic ballot!RCP538SCOTUS The HillGallupIce Cream!Rasmussen: Chocolate (19%), Butter Pecan (16%)YouGov: Chocolate (14%), Vanilla (13%) 

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Survey Monkey write-up: “Senate battleground polls show Democrats in a tight spot”

Criticism: Nate Silver (Twitter): The Axios treatment of this poll is basically "How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart". But wait until we focus on likely voters.

Changing view of SCOTUS

Pew Research  Interpreting Constitution in current times vs Originalists. Are these questions answered by what view will produce the political outcome respondents want? In a vacuum? Growing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means today5 facts about the Supreme Court

American Voters Support Roe V. Wade 2-1, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;

Dem Candidates Up 9 Points In U.S. House Races

Roe v Wade and abortion

So many ways to ask the question. Pretty clear majorities say don’t overturn. Pollsters can frame questions to take advantage of affirmation bias.

What the polls say about Americans, abortion, and the Supreme Court There are so many other issues beyond Roe.

How will this influence people’s midterm votes?Democrats hope Kennedy’s retirement will make the courts a galvanizing issue for their votersPolling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme CourtA quarter of Republicans voted for Trump to get Supreme Court picks — and it paid off2018 Generic Congressional Vote Trump Job Approval

Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. They Told Us Why.

It’s not that they’re selfish, they just can’t afford it.  Where is infertility on this list?

POLL: Did you make it out to see fireworks this Fourth of July holiday? We want our fireworks in our backyard or in the supreme court debate.

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Primary Day

As blue as Maryland is, is it a good place to be Larry Hogan?RealClearPolitics Maryland Governor RacePost-U. Md. poll: Jealous, Baker lead in Democratic race overshadowed by HoganWashington Post-University of Maryland poll - 2018 Maryland governor's election - May 29-June 3

New YorkRealClearPolitics: New York 11th District - Republican PrimaryGrimm vs. Donovan NY 11th Republican Primary

Trumplandia

Trump approval rating Majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time: CNBC surveyBy the numbers: Trump’s economic approval ratings hit a new high

2018 Generic Congressional Vote

Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races

Virginia: GOP Trailing in CD10

West Virginia: Dems Doing Well in Senate, CD03

Midterm Issues

Immigration Gains Steam As A Midterm Issue 

Voters More Focused on Control of Congress – and the President – Than in Past Midterms

Images and Ideas to Engage and Persuade

Freedom Rings in Places You Might Not Expect

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Distinguishing Between Factual and Opinion Statements in the NewsNo one party has a monopoly on ability to distinguish between fact and opinion, but people tend to believe that statements that favor their own opinions are factual.

Family separation pollingLess Than One-Third Of The Public Supports Family SeparationsMajority oppose policy that causes family separation, but Republicans approveAll four outlets show majority oppose the policy, with large party differences. What does support of this unpopular policy mean for Republicans? A quarter of America is ride or die with Donald Trump.

TrumplandiaAmericans are satisfied with Trump's North Korea summithttp://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6b.-.north.korea.pdfTrump Job ApprovalGeneric BallotMelania’s approval rating also decreasesNumbers show that people responded well to the summit. It’s a Thing. A major or minor achievement. Generic ballot shows the spread between Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. Donald and Melania’s approval ratings both drop, but her numbers are much better than her husband’s.

Who doesn’t Approve of Tom Hanks?American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the AnswerThis one is a head-scratcher. In so many ways.

World CupPoll: World Cup Rivals NBA Finals, World Series in Capturing Young Adults’ AttentionOnly 20% of US adults plan to watch. US men are not in it, but so many pretty men are. And some of them are biters.

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Kristen is joined by special guest co-host, Echelon Insights co-founder Patrick Ruffini, to determine who is the goat in this scary movie, who is excited about the midterms, what just happened with North Korea, and what people thought about it before it happened, or didn’t.

Generic ballot / Trump’s approval ratingThe generic ballot is widening back out again in favor of Democrats, but Trump’s approval rating has not taken a hit. Are Dems in the clear? Not so fast.Real Clear Politics: 2018 Generic Congressional VoteTrump Job Approval

NBC/Wall Street Journal PollHow do you talk about the expectation poll when the results of the summit wasn’t a choice?  And what were those results anyway? What is the net outcome of alienating allies and befriending dictators in the same week?Voters unsure what to expect from North Korea talks(Morning Consult poll: U.S. Public Skeptical That North Korea Will Get Rid of Nukes After Trump-Kim Summit)What are midterm voters looking for? A check on Trump? Health care is a problem for Republicans. And the gun issue is surprising. More Dems say they are enthusiastic about primaries, and Republicans look like Independents.Trump's support has gotten deeper — but not broaderEconomic satisfaction under Trump isn't helping his party's 2018 chancesDemocratic Women have won 49% of open seat primaries, Republican Women only 16%

California PrimariesCalifornia Results Are Consistent With a Competitive House RaceWhat to Make of the California Primary ResultsOhio PrimariesVIrginia PrimariesFlorida Primaries

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Margie is lonely on the road, but she’s got polls to keep her company! Especially polls about Michael Avenatti! Trump’s approval ratings hold steady and the Democrats rebound a little in the Generic Ballot. Tariffs have the nation calling flatly, “Anyone?...Anyone?” Women did well in the most recent primaries but do people think they’ll change anything when in office? And, finally, the annual Gallup numbers on what Americans find morally (un)acceptable.

Polls of the Week: What Does The Public Think Of Michael Avenatti?

Quinnipiac University Poll

Echelon Insights Poll

Trumplandia and Generic Ballot

Trump’s approval drops a bit to 44% but data shows a large number of voters want to check him.

Trump Job Approval

NBC/WSJ Poll

Examining Public Support for Checks on Presidential Power

News Fatigue

Pew Research: Almost seven-in-ten Americans have news fatigue

What’s in a Tariff?

Politico Poll: Poll: Few voters think tariffs will help U.S. economyGender in PoliticsRepublicans are less convinced than Democrats that electing more women would make Congress more productive

Morality in AmericaOverwhelming majorities find drinking alcohol and smoking marijuana morally acceptableMore Americans Say Pornography Is Morally Acceptable

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