The DeFi Report

Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 13 May 2026 13:21:22 -0700

Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:45 Bear Market Symmetry

6:00 Comparing Past Cycles

14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K?

19:23 Weak Market Conditions

23:10 Momentum Starts Fading

27:37 June’s Historical Weakness

29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels

32:40 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Are we still in a bear market rally?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 06 May 2026 11:33:27 -0700

Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence

5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning

10:04 Spot Market Analysis

15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand

19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis

21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ

26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin

30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook

33:17 The Marshmallow Test

34:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 11:56:18 -0700

Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes next. They also break down the key level that decides the market, and how to position if this rally is on borrowed time.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

3:57 Bitcoin Market Dynamics

6:51 Short-Term Holder Insights

15:22 Fed Policy Implications

19:31 Liquidity and Economic Outlook

27:44 Crypto Portfolio Strategy

30:09 Navigating Altcoin Markets

38:47 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Why This Rally May Be Too Early

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:50:04 -0700

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins
5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data
8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts
10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns
14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles
18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis
26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion
32:07 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Bottom Is Not In! Why We Get 4-Year Cycles

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 11:58:31 -0700

Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment

4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained

13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology

17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions

27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact

29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns

44:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:03:11 -0700

Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.

Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire
6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases
11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective
15:34 Iran's Strategic Position
22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle
26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin
31:34 Short-Term Market Signals
36:08 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:15:52 -0700

Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.

Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective

4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch

6:31 War's Impact on Markets

11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis

14:03 Fed Rate Predictions

18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement

24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis

28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy

32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities

35:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 11:46:09 -0700

The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?

Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran

7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil

10:04 The US-China Connection

13:26 Lessons from 2022

16:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights

22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology

26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health

28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets

32:44 TDR Portfolio Update

33:56 Patience in Bear Markets

36:28 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 11:28:16 -0700

Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally?

Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict

4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications

8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges

12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis

19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases

27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends

35:33 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 10:57:50 -0700

Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin

4:24 Mining & Network Security

8:08 Fees & Block Rewards

11:20 Security Budget Risks

14:25 The Future of Mining

15:57 Address Trends & Activity

22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge

25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin

28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets

30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns

33:34 The Future of Bitcoin

36:43 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 11:08:42 -0800

Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:24 The Tension of Deployment

3:46 Market Positioning Updates

4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators

7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value

11:44 Market Value to Realized Value

15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average

18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value

20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty

24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value

28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions

33:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 11:18:25 -0800

Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights

8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions

12:20 Impact on the Bond Market

12:31 AI & Investor Psychology

20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market

26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update

35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

What is the bond market telling us?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 11:08:46 -0800

Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals
6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative
9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets
12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?
15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era
19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts
22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks
26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts
29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends
33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook
35:24 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Where do we go from here?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 11:01:34 -0800

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts

3:28 Comparing Past Cycles

6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market

7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions

12:50 Analyzing Market Structure

17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology

21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation

27:47 Updates on the Watch List

31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments

32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

What does the new Fed Chair mean for Crypto?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 14:26:24 -0800

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices

2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair

7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation

10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment

12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective

18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies

20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence

21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook

23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery

25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior

27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners

29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends

32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind

39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals

40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights

42:41 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Why is Bitcoin Underperforming Gold?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 10:19:32 -0800

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset, and how investor “envy” distorts cycle perception. Mike lays out realistic downside scenarios, key support levels to watch, and the onchain signals he needs to see before deploying capital.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio Analysis

8:19 Understanding Gold's Outperformance

13:12 China's Impact on Gold Demand

14:27 Bitcoin's Future as a Reserve Asset

16:27 Potential Bottom for Bitcoin Ratio

20:25 Market Sentiment & Investor Behavior

26:35 Onchain Metrics and Market Conditions

33:41 The Future of Real World Assets in Crypto

34:59 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Constructing a Portfolio

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 10:48:57 -0800

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan lay out Mike’s full portfolio construction framework for a crypto bear market. We walk through how he sizes Bitcoin as the anchor, how core and high-beta assets fit into the cycle, and why price matters more than narratives right now. Mike also shares fair value targets across nearly 30 assets, explains why most investors rush entries too early, and what signals he’s waiting for before going risk-on again.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Market Overview & Conditions

4:03 Constructing a Portfolio

7:00 Importance of Bitcoin

10:41 Core Assets Explained

13:26 Long-Term Holds Strategy

14:06 Risk-On Assets Discussion

17:36 Price Targets for Each Sleeve

20:54 Core Asset Candidates

29:13 Long-Term Holds & Watchlist

33:13 Meme Coins and Market Cycles

36:41 Analyzing the Watchlist

40:30 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Next Stop $100k?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 13:17:46 -0800

Bitcoin is pushing toward $100K, but is the move real or just a positioning unwind? Mike and Ryan break down the CPI surprise, real rates and breakevens, why global liquidity still looks like it’s rolling over, and what the onchain data says about true demand, from ETF flows to long term holder selling, open interest, and funding. Mike explains what would convince him this rally can reclaim $100K as support, and why he’s still staying patient and largely in cash.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Next Stop: $100K Bitcoin?

1:10 Positive Price Action

4:54 Powell's Prosecution & Market Impact

6:08 Bitcoin's Moment?

9:14 Understanding Real Rates & CPI

12:19 Global Liquidity & Bitcoin

17:57 Onchain Data Insights

21:47 Market Demand Signals

26:14 Anticipating Market Reactions

32:15 Upcoming Assets on the Watchlist

35:44 Closing

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Our Outlook for 2026

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 10:39:02 -0800

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Today on The DeFi Report, we’re mapping the 2026 setup: shifting fiscal flows, tighter liquidity, and why rate cuts are not automatically bullish for crypto. Mike stays risk off (80 percent cash) while he watches for the signals that would force a pivot, falling real yields, a dovish Fed, and Bitcoin reclaiming key levels. We also break down where we are in the market cycle, why a counter rally could be a trap, and what Mike’s $65K fair value target implies for positioning this year.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:10 Setup for 2026

5:54 Macro & Liquidity Setup

8:46 2022 Comparison

11:40 U.S. Liquidity Cycle Insights

13:20 Bitcoin & Interest Rates

16:34 Labor Market Insights

18:49 Real Estate Trends

21:04 Midterm Year Implications

23:30 Asset Allocation Cycle

26:18 Crypto Cycle Analysis

29:38 Transition Phase in Crypto

34:23 Geopolitical X Factor

37:12 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Was the Fed Rate Cut a False Signal for Crypto?

Michael Nadeau — Wed, 17 Dec 2025 11:01:02 -0800

The Fed cut rates and announced $40B/month in T bill purchases. Is that the signal to buy back into crypto? Mike says no. In this episode, we explain why “QE light” is not real easing, the key indicators Mike needs before flipping risk on, and what Bitcoin’s onchain market structure suggests about where this cycle could go next.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction to the DeFi Report

2:28 Current Market Positioning

9:25 Federal Reserve's Actions Explained

13:13 Economic Conditions & Predictions

18:35 Big Picture of Economic Strategy

23:17 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Structure

29:57 Closing & Future Outlook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.