(Justin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-lebbon-9b70484/ )

Justin is the founder of the Future of TV Advertising conference series, which brings together broadcasters, agencies, advertisers, and technology companies in markets including the UK, Australia, and Canada. 

Justin is also the co-host of the Media Unfiltered podcast, a podcast covering the big issues shaping advertising and media, often co-hosted by Ian Whittaker, who was a guest on this podcast in episode two.

(Media unfiltered podcast - https://media-unfiltered.com/ )

Back to Justin. 

Justin has an unusually broad vantage point on the industry. He spends his year talking to people across different parts of the TV advertising ecosystem in different markets and hearing where they agree, where they disagree, and where they're still trying to work out the answers. So I thought Justin would be the perfect person to help sort through some of the puzzles, problems, and messes facing television advertising today. It's a wide-ranging conversation, and covers:

• The challenge facing premium local television as media globalises and video inventory proliferates
•  Why a flat TV advertising market means broadcasters need to grow the market, not simply fight each other for share
•  Broadcaster collaboration as a strategic imperative 
•  Moving beyond reliance on the major agency holding companies and pursuing the “messy middle” of advertisers 
•  Making TV dramatically easier to buy — common platforms, consistent audience data and simpler transactions 
•  The opportunity to unlock SME advertising through self-service platforms 
•  Why broadcasters need to retain greater control of their inventory, pricing, data and customer relationships 
•  How broadcaster sales organisations need to evolve beyond traditional agency trading relationships 
•  Going directly to advertisers — and what TV can learn from collaborative approaches in Norway and other markets 
•  The essential ingredients of broadcaster collaboration: politics, scale, common products and common measurement
•  Competing for social-video spend by changing how television is measured 
•  TV’s “fashion problem” — why proven effectiveness alone hasn’t protected advertising share 
•  The economic and societal consequences of advertising expenditure migrating to global technology platforms 
•  Defining and defending premium video through quality, trust, governance, transparency and independently verified measurement 
•  Why premium only matters if premium inventory is also simple to buy
•  Why cross-media measurement may currently be more distraction than solution 
•  The need for broadcasters to diversify beyond advertising revenue 
•  What broadcasters can learn from NBCUniversal, Disney and The New York Times about fandom, events, subscriptions and brand extensions
•  Why combining TV with radio and out-of-home capabilities may create stronger commercial models 
•  Justin’s ultimate conclusion: the answers may be relatively straightforward — execution and industry politics are the hard part

So, in this episode, I speak with Alicia Reese, SVP of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. Over her 17 years with Wedbush Securities, she has covered a variety of sectors, with a primary focus on the movie and entertainment industries. She currently covers theatrical entertainment companies, such as AMC, Cinemark, IMAX, and National CineMedia; streaming-focused companies, such as Netflix, Roku, and Fubo; consumer products companies such as Logitech, Corsair, and Turtle Beach; and media companies related to video games, such as Nintendo, Take-Two, Ubisoft, AppLovin, Unity, Roblox, Double Down Interactive, Playtika, and CD Projekt. Alicia began her career in finance as a data and collateral analyst at Countrywide Securities. Alicia received her B.S. degree in Mathematics/Economics from UCLA.

Alicia speaks about what Netflix is becoming, and how investors should think about the next phase of its evolution. We explore: 

-          why raw viewing hours may be a misleading way to assess Netflix’s health

-          the significance of its shift from subscriber growth towards profitability, engagement and reduced churn

-          how the ad-supported tier is changing subscriber behaviour

-          Netflix’s deliberately low advertising load

-          where the next leg of advertising growth could come from

-          Netflix’s emerging platform strategy

-          the role of live sport as an acquisition tool

-          games and podcasts as engagement layers

-          the significance of its TF1 partnership in France

-          Netflix’s tentative return to theatrical distribution

Finally, we talk about what all this change means for people building careers in media — including the growing importance of AI literacy, marketing and performance marketing, and maintaining a broad view of the companies and capabilities sitting around the traditional media sector.

Here are the applicable disclosures relating to Alicia and Wedbush Securities:

1.       Security discussed: NFLX (Netflix)

2.       Alicia Reese ownership: None

3.       Family/related accounts ownership: None

4.       Firm ownership greater than 1%: No

5.       Wedbush is a market maker in NFLX

6.       Wedbush publishes research on NFLX

7.       Wedbush has not provided investment banking services to NFLX during the applicable disclosure period

Here are some further links:

Alicia on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aliciareese/

Wedbush Securities: https://www.wedbush.com/

The Enders Analysis report references in the episode: https://www.endersanalysis.com/reports/netflix-q2-2026-tackling-engagement-narrative

Doug has also just finished work on a book, Infinite Content: AI, The Next Great Disruption of Media, and How to Navigate What’s Coming, due to be published by MIT Press in early 2027. 

He writes The Mediator on Substack — the links below, and I’ve also linked to Doug’s Media Mental Model – it’s an exceptionally useful way of thinking about the structural changes underway in the media business, bringing together Doug’s writing across the different forces reshaping the industry. 

In this episode, Doug and I focus on three ideas from his Media Mental Model that get to the heart of how the economics of media are changing. 

First, the current shift in the consumer definition of “quality”.  Modern media has been the domain of scarce, professionally produced media, for which ‘quality’ was tied to production values, polish and sophistication. But YouTube, Tik Tok, Reels, and the YouTube x gaming cross-over has given us new forms of media that elevate different attributes - authenticity, relevance, convenience, participation and community.  
 
These new forms of ‘quality’ are easier and cheaper to make – so where does this leave ‘traditional’ media producers? 

Second, we explore what happens as content itself becomes ubiquitous. Doug argues that, as ‘quality’ content can be produced virtually anywhere and by anyone, value migrates towards what Doug terms ‘complements’ and ‘chokepoints’, such as curation, IP, community, trusted provenance, professional validation. 
 
Third, Doug has posited that content might increasingly become top of funnel rather than the final product; less the ‘end’, and more the ‘means’, aggregating attention, building consumer relationships and funnelling demand towards scarcer more valuable downstream experiences and services. 
 
If these two these come to pass - where do traditional media companies position themselves? 
 
Doug’s perspectives are typically thoughtful, thorough and wide ranging – I hope you enjoy the episode.  

Here’s some further links / references: 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-shapiro/ 

https://www.dougshapiro.media/ 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/ 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/media-mental-model-1c6 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/t/book-infinite-content 

Thank you, 
 
Dan Fahy 

François Godard (https://francoisgodard.com/) has been an analyst and advisor on international content-related developments in sports, entertainment and telecoms for more than 20 years, and is based in Italy. 

The episode has fantastic insights and detail from François – I hope you enjoy it. 

On the surface, the answer might be audiences, revenue, formats, talent relationships or advertising capability. But in this conversation with Chris Erwin, founder and CEO of RockWater, a deeper picture emerges.

Creator-economy M&A is becoming a way for media companies to buy speed: speed to talent, speed to audience, speed to culture, speed to new formats, and speed to new commercial models. 

We discuss why the market is maturing, which kinds of buyers are now active, and how companies like Fox are assembling portfolios of creator and creator-adjacent capabilities across talent, audio, vertical video, live experiences, brand partnerships and IP development.

The opportunity is clear - but so is the risk: when legacy buyers acquire creator-native businesses, can they scale what they bought without destroying the voice, culture and sensibility that made it valuable in the first place?

Links:

Chris Erwin in LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrnov/

Rockwater: https://wearerockwater.com/

The Fox deals I mentioned in the episode: 

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/corp-press-releases/2025/fox-corporation-acquires-red-seat-ventures/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/corp-press-releases/2025/fox-advertising-launches-enhanced-brand-storytelling-program-with-strategic-investment-in-the-lighthouse/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-deepens-creative-content-portfolio-and-audience-reach-with-strategic-investment-in-vertical-video-technology-platform-holywater/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-acquires-innovative-audio-drama-storyteller-meet-cute/

https://www.foxflash.com/releases/view/fox-entertainment-names-billy-parks-head-of-fox-creator-studios

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-acquires-equity-stake-in-chain-forging-strategic-partnership-with-experiential-food-phenomenon-co-founded-by-b-j-novak/

This episode explores that question through the OODA loop — John Boyd’s influential model of observation, orientation, decision and action. My guest is Chet Richards, a long-time associate of Boyd and one of the key interpreters of his work for business.

The conversation with Chet homes in on the concepts of time as a strategic instrument, orientation as the engine room of adaptation, and why the ability to recover initiative is ultimately cultural: built on trust, intuitive feel, focus, mission, and learning speed.

For media companies facing constant disruption, seeing the coming change is evidently not enough. The key seems to be finding a way – organisationally, culturally - to move at the tempo of the ‘outside world’.

Links:

Chet Richards’ book – Certain to Win

https://www.amazon.com/Certain-Win-Chet-Richards/dp/818158113X

Chet Richards’ page:

https://slightlyeastofnew.com/page-1/

Chet on Boyd’s OODA loop:
 https://slightlyeastofnew.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/boydsoodaloopnecesse-1.pdf

Jocko Willink podcast discussing the OODA loop:
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwSBOnXrRrM

Details on John Boyd:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Boyd_(military_strategist)

But in 2026, with ad tiers rising, subscriber growth slowing, and churn becoming structural, a different competitive dynamic is emerging: habit.

In this episode, Dan Fahy speaks with Matt Ross, Chief Analytics Officer at Digital-i, about the company’s new “First View of the Day” metric — the first title watched on a streaming platform after 4am local time — and why that first click may now be one of the most important moments in streaming.

Here's the Digital-i blog post on 'First View': 

https://www.digital-i.com/insight-articles/what-the-first-view-of-the-day-tells-us-about-global-streaming-habits

The conversation explores:

• why Netflix’s real advantage may be behavioural, not just content-led
• why frequency matters more than session length
• the surprising strategic importance of kids content and “comfort TV”
• how ad-supported streaming is changing the economics of engagement
• why YouTube increasingly behaves less like a content library and more like a habit platform
• and why broadcasters may be underestimating the strategic value of habitual viewing behaviour

Listen in for a discussion about streaming strategy, engagement, and the shifting battleground for attention.

Featuring:
Matt Ross, Chief Analytics Officer, Digital-i.

In this episode, I'm joined by Guy Bisson. Guy is one of the UK and Europe's leading entertainment market analysts and has specialized in the global television business for more than 30 years.

He is co-founder of Ampere Analysis, a London-based global analyst house focused on the entertainment, sport and game sectors. In this episode, Guy and I focus on ad tiers on SVOD services. On the surface, this might sound like a narrow topic, but with a large share of gross subscriber editions now coming through ad supported plans for many of the major streamers, the move into advertising is starting to reshape the subscription streaming business in some fundamental ways.

Claire's work is widely cited by the Financial Times, the Economist, and the BBC. Claire is a fellow of the Royal Television Society and was awarded a CBE in 2024 for services to media. 

When I sat down with Claire in early February, 2026, we set out to talk about public service media, its current pressures, the trust question, platform distribution, innovation, and lastly, what all of that means for people building careers in media.

The conversation widened into a much richer exploration of public service media's place in a changing Europe, and of the strategic realities now shaping broadcasters platforms and the wider media ecology. 

So I've separated the conversation into six parts: 

Part one: Public Service Media at a European turning point (02:05)

Part two: UK PSB, collective action (11:20)

Part three: Platform economics and distribution realism (20:52)

Part four: Broadcaster and streamer partnerships (30:32)

Part five: Trust and legitimacy (41:50)

Part six: Career development (1:02:17)

Claire's truly excellent firm, Enders Analysis, is here: https://www.endersanalysis.com/

In this conversation, we focus on the rise of YouTube, and why broadcasters and content owners continue to struggle with where to place it in their strategic thinking.

We cover:

-          Whether the current ‘YouTube is TV’ debate is slightly out of focus, with the focus on audience comparisons with broadcast obscuring the monetisation differences and competitive dynamics in the ad market

-          Why it is that broadcasters in particular struggle with how and where to fit YouTube into their audience and monetisation strategies  

-          The foundational questions broadcasters must ask of themselves in order to meet the challenge posed by YouTube 

-          Ian’s career advice for those making their way in this increasingly messy sector.

https://ianwhittakermedia.com/about/

The Puzzle Problem Mess podcast will focus on issues shaping the global media economy, but Gerald is not a media man, and we don’t really focus on media in this episode, and that, too, is deliberate. Gerald and I are both of the view that ideas and inspiration can and should be taken from outside your area of expertise as much as from inside it – and to that end, Gerald’s thinking can be applied to modern media management. 

Gerald and I talk about:

-  Russell L Ackoff’s problem solving based on categorising complex challenges into puzzles, problems or messes. 

-  How predictive planning might best be used in messy strategic environments

-  3M’s culture of innovation and Lockheed Martin’s Skunkworks program

-  The dangers of mistakenly treating messes as problems, or problems as puzzles 

-  Career advice for those making their way in an increasingly messy media landscape

Links relating to the episode:

https://www.geraldashley.com/

Jules Goddard: this is a classic 9 min presentation – Gerald was there and it had big effect on Gerald’s thinking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNlzl37GLdA

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Uncommon-Sense-Common-Nonsense-organisations-ebook/dp/B007XUGB0S/

Gerd Gigerenzer

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reckoning-Risk-Learning-Live-Uncertainty/dp/0140297863/

Arie De Gues

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Living-Company-Arie-Geus/dp/087584782X/

Gerald Ashley and Terry Lloyd

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Two-Speed-World-explosive-everything/dp/1906659702/

The Key Rules of Skunkworks

The founder of the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works was Clarence Leonard "Kelly" Johnson. He established 14 core operating rules

While Kelly Johnson established 14 rules and practices in total (still used by Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works today), the most frequently highlighted key ones revolve around autonomy, efficiency, small teams, trust, and minimal bureaucracy. These enabled rapid development of ground-breaking aircraft like the U-2 and SR-71.Here are the core principles most often cited as foundational:

1. Strong managerial authority — The Skunk Works manager must have practically complete control over the program in all aspects, reporting directly to high-level leadership (e.g., a division president or higher). This ensures quick decisions without layers of approval.
2. Small, empowered teams — Limit involvement to a small number of highly skilled people (ideally 10-25% of a "normal" team size). Strong but minimal project offices on both contractor and customer sides.
3. Minimal bureaucracy and reporting — Require very few reports; keep documentation simple and focused. Use flexible drawing/release systems and reduce inspections/duplications.
4. Mutual trust and close cooperation — Build deep trust between the contractor and customer (e.g., military), with daily liaison to minimize misunderstandings and paperwork.
5. Performance-based rewards — Provide ways to incentivize excellence through pay and recognition not tied to supervising large numbers of people.

These distil the essence of Johnson's philosophy: empower small, talented teams with autonomy and trust to innovate quickly and efficiently—often summarized in his motto, "Be quick, be quiet, and be on time." Many modern agile and innovation methodologies trace roots back to these ideas.