Moving Markets

The View Beyond: When earnings meet geopolitics

Julius Baer — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 06:30:00 +0200

The first quarter of 2026 has presented investors with complex and worsening financial conditions, volatile oil prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Q1 earnings are already being reported, and so far, the indications have been promising. What are the expectations for the rest of the season? And what should investors be watching out for?

In this episode of The View Beyond Podcast, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, to preview the first-quarter earnings season and explore how markets are dealing with the ongoing uncertainty. They examine the resilience of equity markets, the concentration of earnings growth in big tech and commodity sectors, and the early signals from major banks. The conversation includes expectations for European markets, the critical importance of forward guidance this time around, and thoughts on how investors might navigate the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:04) - Market backdrop ahead of Q1 earnings
(02:00) - Consensus expectations for Q1
(02:59) - Early results and the performance of big banks
(04:08) - European earnings outlook
(05:08) - What investors should focus on now
(05:59) - Assessing equity markets amid geopolitical uncertainty
(07:20) - Investment views in the current environment
(08:24) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Nasdaq on its best winning streak since 2009

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 08:49:39 +0200

Wall Street ended modestly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs following a twelfth consecutive advance. US markets reacted positively to the announcement of a 10‑day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Earnings also provided support, led by banks and semiconductor companies, while luxury remained the weak spot this week. Notably, shares of Charles Schwab and Netflix both fell sharply yesterday after releasing their results. US economic data was mixed, with industrial production declining but survey indicators staying firm. In Europe, inflation surprised to the upside and Germany cut its growth forecast for the year. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about why the US dollar may be trading lower despite unresolved tensions between the US and Iran.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:19) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
(09:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Bullish signs of a peace deal send stocks soaring

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:54:18 +0200

President Trump indicated that Tehran wants to make a deal yesterday and officials from Pakistan signalled that new talks are planned. Meanwhile, it seems as if Israel and Lebanon might also be poised to have ceasefire discussions. US and Asia stock markets have reacted very positively with several indices surging to new all-time highs. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to unravel the complicated nuances of different fuel prices and explain why he believes that oil prices might now be past their peak.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:18) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(12:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Stocks closing in on record highs

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 08:46:22 +0200

Investors grapple with rising stagflation fears amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, yet optimism over renewed US-Iran peace talks has fuelled a broad equity rally, pushing major markets close to record highs. Banks are reporting booming trading revenues even as they sounded a note of caution about the ripple effect of higher oil prices. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses how major central banks may respond to the repercussions of the war and whether credit markets can benefit from the equity rebound.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets bounce back as deal hopes resurface

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 08:49:01 +0200

After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:08) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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From ceasefire relief to risk‑off reality

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 08:40:31 +0200

Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today include LVMH and Goldman Sachs. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights an improvement in market breadth in US equities, and explains why semiconductor stocks are in favour.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:39) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:52) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: What the fragile Middle East truce means for China

Julius Baer — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 01:11:00 +0200

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, to assess the implications for global markets and China. They discuss whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why China’s equity market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

This episode was recorded on 9 April, 2026.

(00:00) - A fragile ceasefire and the market rebound
(02:00) - Assessing the market risk-reward, geopolitical landscape
(04:44) - Has the USD/gold long-term trend changed?
(09:22) - How vulnerable is China to high oil prices?
(14:58) - Green shoots in China’s economy – signal or seasonal?
(19:05) - China’s consumption sector – staples vs discretionary
(24:02) - Views on Chinese banks

Ceasefire hopes lift markets as eyes turn to US inflation

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:52:56 +0200

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
(10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equity rally falters after disagreements on ceasefire terms

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:47:50 +0200

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongoing situation. He explains how the ceasefire fits into a pattern in which extreme price spikes trigger both behavioural and political responses, and that markets respond in a monochrome fashion. Tune in to find out more about the possible shades of grey that need consideration.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:38) - Reaction of commodities to ceasefire: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and Iran agree 2-week ceasefire that will open Strait of Hormuz

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:49:05 +0200

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:02) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
(09:55) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets on edge as oil, inflation, and AI drive a fragile mood

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:41:20 +0200

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of President Trump’s deadline.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Energy: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(10:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: The continued resilience of emerging market equities

Julius Baer — Sat, 04 Apr 2026 06:30:00 +0200

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets
(01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance
(03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown
(04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions
(06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook
(07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets
(07:30) - Outlook for EM equities
(09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Strategist at Julius Baer, to examine the recent performance of emerging market equities in the wake of geopolitical shocks. They discuss why the fundamental story for the asset class remains robust, the importance of distinguishing between net energy importers and exporters, and how factors such as a weakening US dollar and the AI-driven CapEx cycle are shaping the outlook. The conversation also addresses the implications of regional dispersion, the role of earnings revisions, and why patient investors may find compelling opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.

Tensions rise, markets shift after Trump dashes hopes of a quick resolution

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:50:42 +0200

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets finish a turbulent March with a solid rebound

Julius Baer — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:58:57 +0200

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who discusses how equity markets are reacting to the ongoing geopolitical situation and offers a deep dive into emerging market equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:26) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(16:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets torn between growth and inflation; an AI-dawn in healthcare?

Julius Baer — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:52:39 +0200

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sharp global equity drop and a bond‑yield spike this month, and quarter‑end flows as key drivers of market moves at the end of the month. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research highlights a promising outlook for healthcare, driven by better diagnostics and AI‑enabled drug discovery.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:24) - Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
(12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US-Iran war escalates further

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 08:46:36 +0200

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(01:00) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Energy markets and the economic outlook amid the ongoing war in the Middle East

Julius Baer — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 06:30:00 +0100

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves?

In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists.

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises
(02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation
(03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption
(04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage
(05:21) - Energy infrastructure
(06:41) - Economic implications
(07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes in energy markets?
(09:36) - Central banks’ policy response
(10:54) - Scenario analysis
(14:55) - Key takeaways for investors
(15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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An anything-but-oil day and navigating fixed income markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 08:43:30 +0100

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings, and US consumer sentiment figures. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the recent sharp moves in bond yields and what it means for investors amid an uncertain war trajectory.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(05:54) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global rally cools, social‑media firms lose key case

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:56:30 +0100

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that aluminium prices have fallen back after an initial spike following the outbreak of the Iran war, despite the region’s central role in the market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:45) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks gain, oil falls on Trump’s 15-point plan

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 08:53:31 +0100

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:40) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(10:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

From turmoil to turnaround – markets shift on de-escalation hopes

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 08:47:00 +0100

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:02) - Germany’s infrastructure spending: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Central banks keeping calm and carrying on as Gulf tensions escalate

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 08:59:10 +0100

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins today’s podcast to wrap up last week’s key central bank decisions and provide his assessment of how they are tackling the increasing threat of inflation. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his insights into the correction in equity markets, and also where he sees risk appetite remaining intact. Tune in for the details!

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:37) - Central bank meetings: David Kohl, Chief Economist
(11:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(14:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Central Banks’ response to the Energy Crisis

Julius Baer — Sat, 21 Mar 2026 06:30:00 +0100

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawkish tone from policy makers is justified but may not necessarily translate into actual policy tightening. He also offers his insights for fixed income investors navigating the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:13) - Takeaways from the Fed’s decision
(02:42) - Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank
(03:57) - Has the rate-cut narrative been derailed?
(06:40) - Will sounding hawkish translate into being hawkish?
(08:06) - Implications for bond markets and yield curves
(09:33) - Fixed income scenarios
(11:05) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Choppy trading persists as rate jitters and Middle East risks collide

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 08:54:52 +0100

Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:50) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
(10:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil spike rekindles inflation fears, putting markets on edge

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 08:52:27 +0100

Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their latest insights on the future trajectory of energy and precious metals prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:46) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:29) - Precious Metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(14:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets hold steady despite Middle East tensions

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 08:52:09 +0100

Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to discuss this week’s monetary policy decisions, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who brings us the latest on Swiss equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:12) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
(10:39) - Equity market update - Switzerland: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(14:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil jitters, NVIDIA’s big product presentation, Trump hits pause on China trip

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 08:51:19 +0100

Markets rebounded on Monday as declining oil prices during the day briefly eased inflation concerns, supported by IEA oil supply assurances and US comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European and US equities advanced, led by artificial‑intelligence names, with Nvidia in focus after its major product event. Australia’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. In Asia, markets flattened as oil prices climbed again amid Middle East tensions, and President Trump postponed his trip to China because of the Iran war, driving European equity futures into the red prior to open. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research discusses renewed investor and large‑cap pharma interest in biotechnology, with a focus on Genomics.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Emerging investment opportunities in gene testing and immunotherapy: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
(13:07) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets attempting a positive start to the week

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 08:49:50 +0100

US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. China and Hong Kong’s equities have rallied this morning as have South Korea’s, and futures point to a positive start to a central bank ‘super week’. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 200-day moving averages are a key factor to watch in attempting to determine where markets might go from here, but at the same time it is important to focus on market breadth. Tune in to hear more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:28) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: The impact of the Iran war on Asia markets

Julius Baer — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 05:07:10 +0100

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong versus A-shares, and the case for renminbi appreciation. Looking further ahead, they also examine the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession framework for China.

(00:00) - Can Asia and China markets weather the storm?
(03:14) - Hong Kong markets vs A-shares
(07:40) - Key takeaways from Two Sessions
(11:19) - Is the RMB appreciation trend set to continue?
(16:08) - Lessons from Japan's balance sheet recession framework for China

Geopolitics‑driven volatility deepens across global markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 08:46:11 +0100

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:28) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil tops USD 100, lifting yields and shaking markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Mar 2026 08:47:37 +0100

Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:50) - Aluminium update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets rebound as oil tumbles

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 08:44:58 +0100

Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fog of war.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:06) - Fixed income market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:25) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(15:36) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Oil whiplash, Wall Street rebound, China’s export strength

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 08:47:30 +0100

Brent oil saw historic intraday swings yesterday, surging on supply fears before dropping sharply as the G7 discussed releasing reserves and the US president signalled the war could soon end. This shift helped European markets rebound from their lows and lifted US equities as safe‑haven flows unwound. Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, supported by strong corporate results and robust Chinese export data. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations, although household spending weakened. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his timely view on the oil price spike and what likely comes next.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:27) - Latest developments in oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Oil surges after Iran names new supreme leader

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:58:32 +0100

This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and looks beyond the fog of war to identify attractive Asian equity sectors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis focuses on what the charts reveal when it comes to the price of oil and the trajectory of US equity markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:17) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(11:27) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(15:13) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: How are financial markets reacting to the strike on Iran?

Julius Baer — Sat, 07 Mar 2026 06:30:00 +0100

The recent US and Israel strike on Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, with investors closely monitoring the implications for oil & gas, and portfolios overall. How should investors interpret these developments and position themselves amid heightened geopolitical risk?

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to discuss the market impact of the Middle East escalation. The conversation covers the immediate effects on oil and gas prices, the scenarios investors should consider, and how clients are responding to volatility across asset classes. The discussion also explores the role of gold, the importance of strategic asset allocation, and why infrastructure and alternatives are gaining traction as diversifiers in uncertain times.

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:48) - Assessing the current situation in the Middle East
(01:31) - Client reactions and portfolio positioning
(02:31) - Market responses: commodities and oil price dynamics
(03:31) - Key scenarios for oil and gas markets
(05:17) - The impact of shipping and insurance costs
(05:56) - Oil price outlook and investor implications
(07:01) - Broader market effects: equities and fixed income
(08:16) - Gold’s performance as a diversifier
(11:24) - Scenario analysis: prolonged conflict and market consequences
(12:39) - Harnessing volatility and portfolio strategies
(13:27) - Investment topics for the long-term
(15:25) - The enduring importance of strategic asset allocation
(16:32) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Oil surge pulls equities lower and dampens rate-cut expectations

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 08:47:29 +0100

Global markets saw another volatile session as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and dampened risk appetite. Equities fell across the US and Europe, and US bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In tech, potential new US restrictions on AI chip exports weighed on sentiment, though software stocks bucked the trend with a notable rebound. Asian markets were mixed overnight. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:02) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(11:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

From energy tensions to market gains

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 08:47:16 +0100

US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil and gas markets following the near‑halt in activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:12) - Oil and gas update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(12:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets fall again as Iran conflict continues

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 08:58:00 +0100

US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how to position portfolios in the current situation.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:31) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(13:11) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets on edge as Middle East conflict widens

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Mar 2026 08:53:21 +0100

While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have climbed further as tensions continue to rise, and Asian markets are deep in negative territory. Today, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who puts the latest moves in precious metals into perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:33) - The impact of geopolitics on precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:10) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

War in the Middle East

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 08:53:35 +0100

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed global markets under heightened scrutiny. Equity indices are trading lower, while safe-haven assets - including the Swiss franc and gold - are seeing increased demand. Oil prices have spiked overnight, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy regions. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides timely analysis on the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for global investors. He is joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who outlines key technical support levels for equity markets and shares his outlook for oil and precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:26) - Middle East situation: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
(10:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(12:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: The road ahead after the US Supreme Court's tariffs decision

Julius Baer — Sat, 28 Feb 2026 06:30:00 +0100

The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winners and losers among countries and sectors, the impact on corporate earnings, and the unresolved question of tariff refunds. Christian Gattiker also shares insights on the muted reaction of the US dollar, the outlook for fixed income, and the key takeaways for investors as US trade policy enters a new phase.

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:42) - What the decision means for investors in the short term
(01:28) - The temporary universal tariff
(02:06) - Winners and losers by country and sector
(03:32) - Ongoing uncertainty and the medium-term outlook
(04:12) - Will there be an impact on corporate earnings?
(04:47) - The unresolved issue of tariff refunds
(05:31) - The US dollar reaction and outlook
(06:22) - Fixed income perspective: uncertainty, fiscal effects, and inflation
(07:32) - Key takeaways
(07:59) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Tech slips but broader markets hold up

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 08:54:55 +0100

Major stock indices ended mostly lower after a two‑day rally. In the US, the Information Technology sector fell nearly 2%, weighed down by a 5.5% drop in Nvidia shares. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Treasury prices and gold edged higher as investors sought safe‑haven assets following the conclusion of US - Iran talks, which ended without any tangible progress. Today, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his views on precious metals and alternatives for those looking to diversify beyond the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(05:40) - FX & Metals markets update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland
(08:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Nvidia delivers, but not enough for euphoria

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 08:58:31 +0100

Nvidia delivered results yesterday that beat analysts’ expectations but failed to cause more than a brief rally in extended trading. Nevertheless, US indices ended the day higher, with the Nasdaq Composite closing up 1.26%, and Asia’s tech-biased indices following suit. The Nikkei 225 breached 59,000 for the first time as the Takaichi trade continued. Elsewhere investors await further tariff announcements from the US in the coming days. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain why, despite rising geopolitical tensions, he believes that the trajectory for both oil and European natural gas prices will be down as we head towards the summer.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:42) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tech climbs, gold shines, and why AI could be good for bonds

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 08:57:35 +0100

US stocks rebounded yesterday led by technology shares after AI developments announced by Meta and Anthropic. Strong US economic data lifted the broader market and boosted small caps. In Europe, autos rose on lower‑than‑expected US tariffs, while banks fell. Taiwan and South Korea climbed on AI optimism, and Japan advanced after the Prime Minister nominated two reflation‑focused academics to the Bank of Japan’s policy board, fuelling expectations of slow rate increases and keeping the yen weak. Precious metals strengthened with gold and silver rising on geopolitical tensions, China’s market return, and continued safe-haven demand. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Research, explains why artificial intelligence could initially support bonds.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:02) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:38) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Risk sentiment sours on trade and AI concerns

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 08:44:33 +0100

Global markets were on edge yesterday as President Trump’s newly announced 15% global tariff triggered a sharp European response and fresh trade uncertainty. Equity markets across both Europe and the US struggled, with tech stocks hit particularly hard amid renewed concerns about AI disruption in the software sector. Defensive names, meanwhile, benefited from the flight to safety, alongside a strong move in gold. Asian markets painted a mixed picture. On today’s show, we are joined by Next Generation research analyst Damien Ng who shares an update on the implications of the emerging Alzheimer’s blood test and what it means for the genomics space.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:17) - Alzheimer's blood test impact on Genomics: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
(11:25) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US Supreme Court strikes Trump tariffs, what’s next?

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 08:36:14 +0100

The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs last week, dealing a blow to his administration’s centrepiece trade policy. The administration quickly signalled that it would pursue 10%, then 15% global tariffs. While equity markets rallied on Friday, risk sentiment has been dampened this morning as uncertainty about trade policy returns. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a step back from the limited geopolitical visibility and looks at what the charts on Treasury yields, the US dollar, and precious metals say. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:57) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:28) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Diversifying beyond Big Tech

Julius Baer — Sat, 21 Feb 2026 06:30:00 +0100

How sustainable is the narrow leadership of US equity markets? With aggressive AI-related capex plans raising concerns about long-term returns, investors have been reassessing concentrated positions in US mega cap technology and turning their attention elsewhere. What should be in focus as they look to broaden their portfolios?

In this edition of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Nenad Dinic, one of Julius Baer’s equity strategists, to discuss the drivers behind the current equity market rotation. They explore the broadening of market leadership beyond the AI-linked hyperscalers, the implications of massive capital expenditure plans, and the importance of selectivity within software and IT. The conversation also covers renewed investor interest in non-US equities, with a focus on Europe, Switzerland, Japan, and emerging markets, as well as sector preferences for healthcare, financials, and miners. Nenad shares why diversification is more critical than ever as investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:07) - Factors behind the improvement in market breadth
(03:35) - How AI is reshaping equity leadership
(05:45) - Is the software selloff overdone?
(08:12) - Diversification beyond US equities: Flows and drivers
(09:20) - Regions benefiting from the broadening
(12:04) - Healthcare, financials, and miners
(13:58) - Key takeaways
(14:27) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Heightening US/Iran tensions ahead of key US data

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Feb 2026 08:56:49 +0100

US and European equity markets fell yesterday following President Trump’s announcement that Iran has 10-15 days to reach a deal over its nuclear programme. This pushed oil prices up over USD 72/ barrel this morning. On the bright side, Indian and South Korean equity markets climbed today. US Futures are also higher ahead of key US data due out today, and the possibility of the announcement of the highly anticipated Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Fixed Income Research analyst Afonso Borges discusses expectations around the data and the court ruling as well as unpacking this week’s Fed minutes.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:58) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
(10:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equities break records as AI disruption fears ease

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:51:07 +0100

European stocks climbed to new highs as investors responded positively to solid corporate earnings. Meanwhile, the latest Federal Reserve minutes revealed a divided stance among US monetary policymakers. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi index - often seen as a bellwether for AI-related trades - surged to a fresh record amid easing concerns over AI‑driven disruption. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the emerging winners and losers as agentic AI reshapes the software sector.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(05:55) - AI and software: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Jittery tech, cheaper gold, and US-Iran talks

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 08:55:32 +0100

As US markets returned from the holiday, volatility re-emerged across AI-linked equities. Europe showed resilience but commodities fell on easing geopolitics. In precious metals, volatility remains elevated due to thin trading during Asian hours amid the Lunar New Year holiday. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about what that means for gold and silver going forward and why dips in AUD and NZD are looking like an opportunity. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets – tune in!

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:00) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:21) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thin trading, thick headlines

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 08:45:46 +0100

With US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and much of Asia shut for Lunar New Year, trading was thin yesterday and overnight, yet European equities still managed to edge higher. Swiss GDP data showed a slight rebound in Q4, although overall growth for 2025 remained below the historical average. Geopolitical developments also shaped sentiment, as investors digested the outcomes of the Munich Security Conference. Meanwhile, talks between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between Iran and the US, are taking place in Geneva today — highlighting how global politics continues to steer markets and keeping oil and gold firmly in the spotlight. On today’s show, we were also joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation for an update on the crypto world, which has had a tough start to the new year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Digital Assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:44) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

£Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Profit taking in Japan after weak data and a potential red flag for the US

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 08:45:44 +0100

Global equity markets are starting the week on a subdued note, with US markets closed today for President’s Day. Liquidity is also thinner than usual due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and carnival celebrations in parts of South America. Japanese equities are seeing some profit-taking following weaker‑than‑expected GDP data, while gold and silver are also trading lower. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares why he remains wary on US equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(01:14) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:51) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Making sense of the cross-asset turbulence

Julius Baer — Sat, 14 Feb 2026 01:01:37 +0100

Recent weeks have seen extreme cross‑asset volatility, with sharp unwinds hitting US and China tech stocks, precious metals and cryptocurrencies. In China, renewed concerns about regulatory scrutiny are weighing on sentiment, even as the case for a stronger renminbi continues to build.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., to discuss what the market dislocations mean for investors, and how these cross-asset dynamics may shape positioning in the weeks ahead.

(00:30) - The big precious metals selloff
(04:04) - Cryptocurrencies – near and long-term outlook
(08:13) - Industrial metals remain supported by rising strategic demand
(10:36) - China tech – is it time to buy the dip?
(13:55) - Defining “value” in China’s rotation
(15:32) - Regulatory scrutiny – how worried should investors be?
(20:20) - A-shares vs H-shares in the short term?
(23:03) - Renminbi strength and outlook

Rising AI worries drag on market momentum

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Feb 2026 08:46:29 +0100

Markets were mixed yesterday, with European shares dragged down by weak results from Adyen, Magnum and Mercedes-Benz, despite solid updates from Siemens and Hermès. Schroders jumped on a takeover approach from Nuveen. In the US, deepening concerns over AI‑driven disruption hit tech stocks hard, pushing the ‘Magnificent Seven’ lower and marking Apple’s worst day since Liberation Day. Gold and silver slipped on stronger US labour data, oil fell on rising supply signals, and US housing data highlighted growing structural weakness. We’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on metals and currencies ahead of key US inflation data.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:45) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:59) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US jobs surprise lifts yields as European stocks break new ground

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:56:09 +0100

A surprisingly strong US jobs report sent yields higher – most notably at the short end of the curve – and weighed on equity index performance. Market expectations have now shifted, with traders anticipating that the Federal Reserve will hold off on further rate cuts until July. Meanwhile, European equities climbed to fresh highs on the back of robust earnings. In today’s episode, Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins us to share his detailed perspective on how investors should navigate the current landscape in cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:01) - Cloud Computing & AI: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(13:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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AI’s next victim

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 08:44:49 +0100

Rising concerns about who will be disrupted next by rapid advances in artificial intelligence continue to weigh on parts of the markets. Investors are caught between solid corporate earnings and concerns about the strength of the US economy as consumer spending has finally caught up with consumer sentiment, and not in a good way. Investors’ focus will remain on US data this week. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research talks about which data releases he will be watching closely. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:09) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
(11:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Alphabet’s big raise, Japan’s big run, and precious metals’ way ahead

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 08:43:03 +0100

US stocks rose, with the S&P 500 near a record, led by technology and AI on renewed OpenAI momentum. Alphabet’s USD bond sale drew over USD 100 billion in demand, allowing it to raise USD 20 billion and tighten pricing on its 40‑year bond. The USD weakened on reports that China’s banks are advised to cut their US Treasury holdings. Europe closed higher on strong gains from UniCredit and Novo Nordisk, while Asia followed Wall Street, with regional technology at new highs and Japan hitting another record. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the precious metals market after its record surge and subsequent pullback.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(05:48) - Latest news on precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:22) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Sanae Takaichi sweeps to victory

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 08:56:38 +0100

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi captured a historic supermajority for her Liberal Democratic Party in yesterday’s election, meaning the LDP holds two-thirds or more seats in the Lower House, and giving her the scope to pursue her fiscal agenda. The Nikkei 225 rallied 5.5% today, crossing the 57,000 threshold for the first time. Other Asian markets rallied this morning following the recovery in the US indices on Friday. Nevertheless, last week marked a rotation out of Big Tech and into smaller companies and dividend growth stocks. Gold is back up above USD 5,000 after whipsawing last week. Louis Chua, Equity Research Asia, joins the podcast today to talk about the likely impact of the Takaichi victory on Japan’s financial markets, and Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his analysis of the moves in the IT sector and what the charts suggest might lie ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(01:14) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:47) - Japan elections: Louis Chua, Equity Research Asia
(11:56) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(14:20) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: What Kevin Warsh means for markets

Julius Baer — Sat, 07 Feb 2026 06:30:00 +0100

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the likely next chair of the Federal Reserve has prompted immediate market reactions and renewed debate around the future direction of US monetary policy. What should investors expect as the Fed faces new leadership?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, to discuss the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. They examine market reactions, the prospects for rate cuts, the outlook for the US dollar, and the potential impact on asset classes including treasuries, fixed income, and equities. The conversation also covers the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, the risk of increased volatility, and what a shift away from ample liquidity could mean for investors. Finally, they address the recent volatility in precious metals and whether the nomination will bring stability to gold and silver markets.

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:01) - Was Warsh's nomination a surprise?
(01:39) - Hawkish or dovish: What does Warsh’s stance mean for the Fed?
(03:20) - Expected rate trajectory and implications for monetary policy
(05:19) - Data dependence and the Fed’s decision-making process
(06:22) - Do we expect the US dollar to weaken further as a result?
(09:59) - Will Warsh's nomination affect the Fed’s balance sheet?
(12:07) - No further quantitative easing underr Kevin Warsh?
(13:33) - What is the potential impact on financial markets?
(15:11) - The new outlook for fixed income investors
(16:04) - US equities and the case for diversification
(17:38) - Precious metals volatility: Will the rollercoaster end?
(19:27) - Closing remarks

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Central banks steady, markets shaky and silver steals the spotlight

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 09:06:51 +0100

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both kept rates unchanged yesterday, signalling a cautious but data‑dependent stance even as inflation trends diverge on either side of the Channel. European equities finished broadly lower on the back of a busy earnings day, while in the US a third straight sell‑off pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year. Crypto joined the risk‑off trend, while silver remained the standout story in commodities after back‑to‑back plunges and an overnight rebound that left volatility high. In corporate news, Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their merger discussions. Today we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, for an update on Asian tech stocks, and by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on metals and currencies.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(08:30) - Asia equity update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kon
(15:49) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva g
(20:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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China’s tech stocks enter bear market territory

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:54:14 +0100

Earnings and Big Tech remain in focus, with Alphabet beating Wall Street’s expectations but causing some investors to take flight in the wake of projected capex spending. The rotation out of tech stocks continued on Wednesday - the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%. China’s Hong Kong-listed technology stocks slid overnight with the Hang Seng Tech Index now 20% below its October peak. The threat of VAT increases being imposed on internet platforms exacerbated the move. The ECB and the Bank of England are both expected to keep rates on hold today. With investors hypnotised by swings in gold and silver prices this year, it’s easy to lose sight of oil and natural gas markets. In light of the current geopolitical tensions impacting these markets, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research joins the podcast to put things in perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:58) - Oil and Gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research
(12:01) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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AI disruption, US Treasury funding, earnings, and emerging-market outperformance

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 08:57:56 +0100

The rotation out of technology stocks continued, with software shares selling off on AI‑disruption concerns, while cyclical stocks outperformed. WalMart reached a USD 1 trillion market‑cap milestone. German long‑dated yields hit their highest level since 2011 as heavy issuance lifted supply. Precious metals remain volatile but rebounded sharply, while Brent oil rises on Middle East tensions. In earnings, Novo Nordisk expects sales to fall this year due to pricing pressure. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research outlines developments in the US fixed income market and our Overweight stance on duration. Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy provides an update on the earnings season and the outperformance of emerging‑market equities this year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:08) - Update on US Federal Reserve: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
(11:48) - Earnings season and EM update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research
(18:34) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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From turmoil to upswing: rebounding markets and a standout from Palantir

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Feb 2026 08:39:12 +0100

After a deep slump at the open, market sentiment turned and equity markets swung sharply into positive territory, while precious metals — which had been under intense pressure — began to claw back recent losses in the hours that followed. In the US, tech favourite Palantir impressed after the close with stronger than expected results. And looking ahead, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, shares his perspective on what the recent volatility means for precious metals and the path forward.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(05:13) - Making sense of the precious metals sell-off: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Historic sell-off in gold and silver

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 08:43:50 +0100

Gold and silver plummeted in a historic sell-off amid volatility and margin calls, triggered by speculation of a hawkish Fed chief pick. Markets reel as global equities tumble this morning, while investors brace for key earnings and central bank decisions in a turbulent start to February. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his view on what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term trend in precious metals is still positive after the crash.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:23) - New Fed Chair: David Kohl, Chief Economist
(09:39) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Technology earnings, historic moves in precious metals, and Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair?

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 08:55:57 +0100

US equities were mixed yesterday, with investors rotating out of technology as Microsoft dropped sharply while Meta jumped. In Europe, SAP’s steep fall weighed on the DAX, while the Swiss market outperformed. Precious metals are experiencing extreme volatility after record highs, energy prices are rising amid escalating Middle East tensions, while markets also price in the growing likelihood that Kevin Warsh will become the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, explains what to watch in an environment of historic precious‑metal volatility and dollar weakness.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:41) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Fed holds steady, S&P 500 hits 7,000 and gold smashes records

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:42:37 +0100

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and struck a data‑dependent tone, even as political pressure around the central bank intensifies. The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 before paring gains, tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla sent mixed signals after the close, and European markets fell on volatile moves in ASML and LVMH. The US dollar rebounded on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, while geopolitical tensions pushed oil higher and gold surged above USD 5,500 as silver and copper also reached record highs. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on precious metals and why fundamental analysis cannot explain the most recent moves upwards.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:31) - Precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Trump deepens dollar woes while gold jumps

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 08:48:31 +0100

A whirlwind week in global markets — and it’s only Wednesday. The dollar plunges, the Swiss franc hits multi‑year highs, and gold and silver seem unstoppable. Equity markets touch new records as investors brace for mega‑cap tech earnings and the Fed’s rate decision after market close today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what he expects from the US central bank. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

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The View Beyond: Is the precious metals mania set to continue?

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 05:30:00 +0100

After a remarkable 2025, gold and silver have surged to new highs in early 2026, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and speculative flows. What is fuelling this rally, can it continue, and how should investors position themselves in these volatile markets?

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Christopher Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading, to dissect the forces behind the explosive moves in gold and silver. The discussion covers the impact of US political dynamics, the role of central bank and ETF flows, the unique characteristics of the silver market, and the macro factors investors should monitor. The episode concludes with practical guidance for managing risk and navigating heightened volatility in precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:26) - Key catalysts behind the gold and silver rally
(03:12) - Trading flows, speculative positioning, and physical demand
(04:25) - The role of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and silver market dynamics
(04:58) - Silver – currency or commodity?
(07:00) - Geopolitics and the persistence of the rally
(08:43) - Erosion of confidence in US assets and implications for gold and silver
(09:06) - Silver’s acceleration and trading behaviour
(10:35) - Fundamental differences between gold and silver
(11:59) - Macro factors to watch: interest rates, inflation, and the US dollar
(13:09) - What investors should focus on now – gold
(14:10) - What investors should focus on now – silver
(15:02) - Key takeaways from trading
(16:00) - Closing remarks

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The music plays in FX and precious metals

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 08:57:47 +0100

Markets opened the week with a weaker US dollar and sharp gains in gold and silver. Precious metals broke key levels, with gold rising as high USD 5,100 and silver to over USD 112 an ounce. Equities and bonds were relatively calm, but global stocks are still near record highs. China’s annual industrial profits rose for the first time since 2021 and India and the EU announce a trade deal. Energy prices are being supported by cold weather in the US and geopolitics. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research discusses stablecoins and the broader crypto backdrop.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:43) - Digital assets in the wake of the gold rally: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(12:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The beat goes on for silver and gold

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 08:46:42 +0100

Silver sailed past USD 100 on Friday and has topped 107.50 in Asia this morning. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the USD 5,000 mark. There’s a lot of focus on USD/JPY and a possible US government shutdown is also now on the cards. Along with the twists and turns of geopolitics, markets now face a dense run of central bank decisions and one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. Our analysts expect a test of conviction as markets navigate policy, growth, and profits simultaneously. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides more colour on the moves in precious metals and the backdrop of the USD, setting out the case for how he believes investors should best position themselves in the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:49) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: Does China’s 2026 rally echo 2015?

Julius Baer — Sat, 24 Jan 2026 14:00:17 +0100

China’s markets are off to a strong start in 2026, raising renewed comparisons to the 2015 boom‑and‑bust just as global tensions escalate — from dramatic US moves over Greenland to a surge in gold prices and a weakening dollar. With capital rotating out of U.S. assets and liquidity patterns shifting across Asia, does today’s rally carry familiar risks, or does it mark the start of a very different cycle?

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., to examine these cross‑currents: the resilience of A‑shares, the wave of Hong Kong tech IPOs, and why rising margin financing today is not a replay of 2015. They also highlight the key themes shaping 2026, including precious metals, AI‑linked industries, and high‑dividend opportunities.

This episode was recorded on 21 January 2026.

(00:24) - Initial reactions to the Greenland crisis
(02:39) - Implications on gold, US dollar, and global assets
(07:36) - China’s rising margin financing balances, and the paradox of a “slow bull market”
(12:55) - Hong Kong IPO glut: liquidity drain or healthy market growth?
(17:05) - China’s economic cycle vs. valuations
(21:16) - Key sector themes for 2026

Markets calmer, dollar slides, metals surge

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Jan 2026 08:49:05 +0100

Global risk sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased, diplomatic efforts advanced, and resilient US data lifted equities while pushing volatility and high-yield credit spreads to their lowest since 2007. European stocks played catch‑up, supported by their cyclical exposure and positive company‑specific news. The US dollar has weakened sharply this week, boosting risk‑sensitive currencies. Commodities are surging, with gold and silver extending their historic rallies on strong momentum and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, discusses the historic rally in precious metals and investor positioning given the weak USD.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:08) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Relief rally as Trump declares “framework of a future deal” on Greenland

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Jan 2026 08:57:23 +0100

President Trump castigated European leaders over their response to his Greenland takeover attempt during his speech at the WEF in Davos yesterday but did step back from suggesting the use of military force. Equity markets rallied in response. They were given further positive momentum by a later post from the president which claimed that a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland had been agreed with NATO and that tariff threats against Europe were off the agenda. Equity markets globally are mostly higher today and safe-haven assets have slipped. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about Natural Gas - a sector that has not only seen a surge in prices of late, both in Europe and the US, but which also could be another bargaining tool for President Trump.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:55) - Natural gas and the Greenland commodities story: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets hold their breath as Trump takes the stage in Davos

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 08:50:00 +0100

Markets continue to de-risk and the “Sell America” narrative gains traction as geopolitical tensions over Greenland spook investors, triggering an equity sell-off, a weaker dollar, and soaring precious metals. With scant data ahead, all eyes are now on President Trump’s keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today for clues on policy direction and de-escalation potential. We’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on Japanese bond markets, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on how recent geopolitical risks might impact global equity markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:22) - Japanese government bond yields: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(08:05) - Geopolitics disrupting equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(11:38) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Tariff threats rattle European stocks as bonds sell off globally

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 08:45:18 +0100

European equities pulled back sharply yesterday after President Trump threatened tariffs on European goods, sending trade-sensitive sectors like autos and luxury sharply lower while defence stocks bucked the trend. Bond markets also came under pressure, with global yields rising and Japan’s 40-year government bond yield hitting a record high amid fiscal concerns and election uncertainty. In Asia, equity markets were mostly weaker despite fresh record highs in South Korea, while Chinese regulators moved to cool an overheating rally. Gold and silver jumped on safe-haven demand, oil edged higher, and diplomatic tensions flared further over Trump’s proposed ‘Board of Peace’. We’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on critical minerals, with a focus on Greenland.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:18) - Critical minerals and the Greenland connection: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:39) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Gold soars and the US dollar dips on new US tariffs announcement

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 08:50:15 +0100

President Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs on eight European allies - linked to the US push to acquire Greenland - is set to ripple through global financial markets this week. Gold and silver have surged to fresh record highs on the news, while the US dollar has weakened. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, who continues to see significant upside potential in select US equity sectors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:42) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: What Iran and Venezuela mean for oil

Julius Baer — Sat, 17 Jan 2026 07:30:00 +0100

Geopolitics is once again in the spotlight. With protests intensifying in Iran and the recent US intervention in Venezuela, many investors are questioning whether these developments will meaningfully move oil prices — or whether an already oversupplied market will simply absorb the shocks.

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins Ayako Lehmann to explore how these events fit into the broader global energy landscape. They also discuss the longer‑term outlook for US shale, the ongoing erosion of oil demand in advanced economies, and what all of this could mean for the crude oil market in 2026.

(00:00) - Introduction and framing the geopolitical context
(01:00) - Why Venezuela’s regime change did not move oil markets
(02:35) - The role of heavy oil from Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico
(04:16) - Assessing the situation in Iran and its impact on oil supply
(06:22) - Contrasting risks: supply disruption in Iran vs. long-term supply potential in Venezuela
(07:44) - Other geopolitical hotspots: Ukraine, Taiwan, and global supply chains
(09:49) - Can geopolitical risks meaningfully drive oil prices higher?
(12:00) - The state of the U.S. shale business and its sensitivity to price
(13:55) - Implications for U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy
(15:35) - The impact of lower oil prices on Russia and the Ukraine conflict
(17:23) - Lessons from previous geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in oil markets
(20:01) - Closing remarks and key takeaways

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AI chip stocks power global rally as oil prices plunge

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Jan 2026 08:53:08 +0100

Semiconductor stocks stole the spotlight yesterday as record results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reignited the AI trade across Europe, Wall Street, and Asia. Meanwhile, Germany recorded the first year of annual economic growth since 2022, while strong US data shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Oil prices tumbled after President Trump signalled a pause in threats of military action against Iran, and gold extended losses as geopolitical tensions eased. Currency markets saw the yen strengthen on hints of possible intervention and speculation about an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike. Today’s episode features Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his insights on silver, the yen, and the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US equity market rotation gaining steam

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 08:54:39 +0100

The average stock in the US rose yesterday, but investors shifted away from technology and bank stocks. European equities reached a new all-time high, though German stocks experienced their first decline in eleven days. Geopolitical tensions and announcements from the Trump administration led to demand for US Treasuries driving yields lower and also caused volatility in precious metals and oil, which rose initially but then declined. Weakness in US technology is affecting Asia, however, the main equity indices there remain stable. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the factors behind silver’s incredible rally, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, talks about why he anticipates a positive earnings season overall.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:51) - Silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:04) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(14:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Silver and gold rally powers on

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 08:43:57 +0100

Equity markets struggled despite cooler-than-expected US inflation data, as mixed bank earnings, Fed independence concerns, and Iran tensions weighed on sentiment. The latter two factors boosted gold and silver to new record highs. Attention turns to the US and the prospect of possibly hearing about the Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA tariffs later today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the potential impact on the bond market and what it means for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:34) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets on edge: gains amid political uncertainty and change

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 08:47:26 +0100

Equity markets pushed higher despite mounting geopolitical tensions, US political uncertainty, and sharp declines in some bank stocks following President Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates. Japanese shares surged on speculation of imminent snap elections, adding another twist to global market dynamics. And today, Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins us to explore how emerging retail trading platforms are reshaping market structures and investor behaviour.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(05:41) - The Future of Finance: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:14) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US Fed Chair responds to DoJ’s threat of criminal investigation

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 08:52:48 +0100

Jerome Powell has responded to the threat of criminal charges against him relating to the renovation of historic Fed buildings, stating that they are nothing to do with this and rather reflect the fact that he will not bow to political interference when it comes to matters of monetary policy. US futures and the dollar have fallen since he spoke yesterday. This comes after record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on Friday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s podcast to discuss the technical take on US equity performance as well as the continued rise of precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Defence stocks surge as markets await key US jobs data

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Jan 2026 08:43:52 +0100

Defence stocks soared across the globe yesterday after US President Trump called for a bigger military budget. Meanwhile, technology shares stumbled, oil rebounded sharply, and precious metals gained ground. In Asian trading, Fast Retailing impressed with strong earnings, while Rio Tinto slipped on merger talks with Glencore. We also discuss the narrowing US trade deficit, the Fed’s dovish signals, and Switzerland’s muted inflation backdrop. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva, with an update on metals and currencies.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(08:40) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(12:54) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: Market Outlook 2026 – Reset, Rebalance, Go Global

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Jan 2026 05:30:00 +0100

Investors should prepare themselves for 2026 to be a year that rewards those who adapt early to the resets and rebalancing which are shaping the new investment landscape. So, what are the key themes?

In this edition of Moving Markets - The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, to discuss Julius Baer's Market Outlook 2026 and why it’s important not to let a single country or theme dominate portfolios. Asian equities, artificial intelligence, defensives, and European cyclical stocks all have a role to play. The conversation also covers fixed income positioning, the appeal of Australian dollar bonds, prospects for further US dollar weakness, and whether gold's remarkable run can continue.

(00:00) - Introduction to speakers and topic
(00:52) - Defining resetting and rebalancing
(01:53) - Economic expectations for 2026
(02:46) - The opportunity set is going global
(05:51) - Asian AI and tech have room to run
(08:03) - Careful portfolio construction required for AI
(09:07) - A balanced equity allocation advised for 2026
(09:54) - Fixed income: balancing credit exposure and duration
(10:41) - Time to consider Australian dollar bonds
(11:52) - Expectations for the US dollar and its alternatives
(13:58) - Can the precious metals rally continue?
(15:34) - Key messages to take away
(16:30) - Closing remarks

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Equity markets pause for breath as they digest geopolitics

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 08:54:23 +0100

Global equity markets closed marginally lower yesterday as they weighed the US administration’s moves on Venezuela and the potential for escalation regarding Greenland. Nevertheless, there were some bright spots: the Nasdaq was boosted by Alphabet, and the Kospi saw gains this morning as Samsung announced impressive Q4 earnings guidance. Defence stocks rose in Europe, but fell in the US, for different reasons. Amidst the surge in precious metals prices, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that silver prices have moved too far, too fast of late, and why investors need to distinguish between flow-driven and fundamentals-driven price moves. Tune in to find out where he sees prices going from here.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:22) - Precious metals update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The equity rally continues

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 08:52:50 +0100

Global equities surged with US, European, and Asian markets reaching new highs, brushing aside geopolitical concerns. Copper and precious metals spiked on supply concerns and strong demand, while bond markets priced in more rate cuts following softer European inflation data. Still, geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data remain in focus, creating the first challenges of the year in Asian trading this morning. On today’s show, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares what these developments mean for the bond market, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, outlines his sector outlook for 2026.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:37) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:24) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:58) - Equity market sector update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(12:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets soar amid geopolitical ripples – oil and metals in focus

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 08:43:38 +0100

Equity markets have kicked off the first full trading week of the year on a strong note, with major indices in the US and Europe reaching record highs despite persistent concerns over Venezuela and its potential geopolitical ripple effects. Gold and silver continued their breathtaking rally while government bond yields fell a little. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his insights on the situation in Venezuela and the outlook for oil prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:40) - Oil price update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitical tensions greet the New Year

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 08:44:26 +0100

Global markets surged in 2025, fuelled by economic growth, AI optimism, and central bank rate cuts, though there were sharp swings in volatility at times. Commodities diverged: oil ended lower while precious metals soared, led by gold’s biggest annual gain in 46 years. 2026 started on a strong footing, driven by semiconductor stocks. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions spiked with the arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, lifting gold as Brent held near USD 60 amid oil supply concerns. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, expects the USD and related assets to remain in a bear market, while precious metals are likely to continue to shine.

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Special episode: Singapore dollar – Small but mighty

Julius Baer — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 25.09.2025.

This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.

When one thinks of safe-haven currencies, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar typically come to mind. But with capital flows diversifying away from the US dollar, interest in alternative safe havens is increasing. The Singapore dollar, one of Asia’s most stable and best-performing currencies, stands out as one such potential candidate. In this episode, we explore the unique characteristics of the Singapore dollar, its central role in Singapore’s monetary policy, and how investors can position themselves to benefit from the Singapore dollar’s strength.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Singapore dollar: Yaw Shin Wong, Equity Specialist and Jen-Ai Chuna, Equity Research Analyst
(07:35) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Special episode: Water: Too little and too much

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 08.04.2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Water sustainability: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, Maeve Timoney, Next Generation Analyst and Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership
(09:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Special episode: From Battlefield to Boardroom: Leadership in a changing world

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 13.08.2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, speaks with General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General, about leadership lessons from his distinguished military career and how they translate to the corporate world. Their conversation explores recent conflicts, including the India–Pakistan skirmish, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Russia–Ukraine war, highlighting the critical role of deterrence. They also examine the future of US energy policy amid shifting dynamics in the Middle East and global oil markets, consider China’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere and its implications, and explore regions with strong potential for development.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - From Battlefield to Boardroom: Leadership in a changing world: Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia and General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General
(10:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Special episode: Private Equity in a Changing World

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 24.08.2025.

Investing in private markets has the potential to create long-term value in portfolios. But how can qualified and professional investors navigate the current marketplace? What does the private equity market look like today? Which factors are driving potential opportunities? And where might the risks lie?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists at Julius Baer talks to Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at the global alternatives firm TPG, to discuss these questions as they evaluate the current landscape and reflect on the potential risks and rewards.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:40) - Private equity: Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at TPG and Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists
(08:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Special episode: What is agentic AI and how might it impact your investments?

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 12.09.2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Agentic AI: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research and Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership
(09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Special episode: How structured products can add value to a portfolio

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 01.10.2025.

Structured products can provide investors with capital protection, enhanced yield, or targeted exposure to specific market scenarios. While they may appear complex to those less familiar with them, this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast aims to demystify these instruments. Helen Freer is joined by two Julius Baer experts, Conrad Bruggisser and Raffaele Perroncello, to explain how structured products work and how they can add value to a portfolio. They also discuss the key risks to consider, why market volatility is relevant and how the products can be tailored to suit different investor profiles.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:37) - Structured products: Conrad Bruggisser, Head of Markets PB Sales & Solutions and Raffaele Perroncello, Head of Cross Asset Sales
(07:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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An FX year told in rhyme

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Dec 2025 08:55:28 +0100

In trading yesterday, lower inflation led the way, technology earnings brightened the day. A UK cut, the ECB’s soft tone, sent markets climbing, risk well-known. Across the seas, Japan stood tall, rates are the highest since the mid-2006 call. And to close the year with rhythmic cheer, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, penned a verse sincere.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:24) - A festive FX poem: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(08:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Investor rotation hits AI stocks

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Dec 2025 08:52:52 +0100

Markets showed little festive spirit yesterday with almost all equity markets globally declining as investors continued to rotate out of key artificial intelligence names. The sell-off was triggered by concerns around financing issues of a data centre project in the US. In contrast, energy and financial sectors outperformed, supported by rising oil prices and dovish remarks from a Federal Reserve member ahead of today’s key events: interest rate decisions by the ECB and BoE, as well as the release of US inflation data. On today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides deeper insights into the oil market, while Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, discusses asset allocation strategies for the coming year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:26) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(12:36) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis
(17:44) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US jobs data, Tesla’s surge, and oil’s wild ride

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Dec 2025 08:56:20 +0100

Markets digested a mix of headlines yesterday. In the US, the latest jobs report pointed to a resilient but cooling labour market. US equities were mostly subdued, though Tesla stole the spotlight with a record-breaking rally on robotaxi optimism. Oil prices swung sharply, first falling on hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal before rebounding on renewed geopolitical tensions, while gold edged higher as uncertainty lingered. In Europe, defence stocks slipped as peace talks gained traction, and the EU made waves by reversing its planned ban on combustion-engine cars. Asian markets were broadly higher, buoyed by strong export data from Japan. We’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on bond markets and central banks, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on their recent upgrade of Swiss equities and their views on the financials sector.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:50) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:02) - Equity market update: Switzerland and financials: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(15:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets on edge ahead of key labour and inflation data

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 08:45:44 +0100

European equities rallied after industrial production data came in stronger than expected, while Wall Street traded cautiously ahead of a packed schedule of key labour‑market and inflation releases between today and Thursday. The US dollar, oil, gold, and bitcoin all slipped as investors absorbed a noisy flow of macro headlines. On today’s show, Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research joins us to discuss the latest developments in biotech - and why he believes the outlook for the sector is finally brightening after years of underperformance.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:01) - A pivotal year for biotechnology: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
(11:12) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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AI anxiety continues to weigh on main indices

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 08:51:14 +0100

The story that started with Oracle in the middle of last week continued with Broadcom on Friday. Despite its earnings and guidance actually breezing past expectations, the company's stock had lost 11% by the end of the day, and this filtered through to other tech names in both the US and Europe. Asia is also lower this morning with China in particular delivering some disappointing growth data. Nevertheless, gold and silver continue to climb and on today’s podcast our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, weighs in with the technical view on whether the rally can continue. He also explains why he believes that most investors are underestimating how weak the US dollar is as we head towards year end.

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Fed sparks equity rally but big tech stumbles

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 08:49:43 +0100

Equities rallied broadly following the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut communication, though big tech underperformed amid concerns over valuations and leverage. At the same time, precious and industrial metals regained investor attention as the US dollar weakened and expectations for Chinese stimulus grew. Today, we’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his insights on the recent dynamics in currency and metal markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:08) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The Fed cuts again

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:51:40 +0100

The US Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.5%–3.75% but three dissenting members signal deepening divisions. It surprises with a new bond buying programme to start in the coming days. US small caps moved to an all-time high, US Treasury yields dipped, and the USD fell. Yet, Oracle’s outlook and additional financing needs are unsettling investors. Nasdaq futures and Asian technology stocks are lower. In Japan, strong demand at a 20-year bond auction eases yield pressures. With a record high in silver and gold close to its recent highs, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delivers our outlook on the two metals following the Fed decision.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:56) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:21) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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It’s Fed day!

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Dec 2025 08:56:43 +0100

We’ll finally get the last monetary policy decision of the year from the US central bank today and a 25 basis point cut is firmly priced in. Almost more important will be the dot plot, economic projections, and comments from Jerome Powell after the main event. Global equity markets have been relatively muted in the last 24 hours aside from some company specific news that you can catch up on in today’s podcast. Strong earnings growth and an accommodative Fed are a strong backdrop going forwards, as detailed by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who also provides more clarity on his recent downgrade of Industrials to Neutral. He even provides a sneak peek at his preferred sectors for 2026.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:52) - Equity market update and industrials downgrade: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(11:15) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets tread water ahead of Fed decision as M&A frenzy heats up

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Dec 2025 08:48:11 +0100

Financial markets were largely subdued yesterday, as investors awaited tomorrow’s pivotal Fed rate decision. But the corporate world was anything but quiet with Paramount challenging Netflix in the hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery. Asian markets were mixed, oil prices eased on hopes for progress in Ukraine, and gold dipped ahead of the Fed decision. In tech, President Trump surprised markets by allowing Nvidia to export its H200 chips to China. Joining us today is Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who shares the latest developments in Alzheimer’s research and provides an update on the extended longevity investment theme.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(05:43) - Alzheimer’s developments & update on longevity investment view: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
(10:00) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Stocks continue to edge higher

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 08:38:40 +0100

Equities ended the week higher with US personal consumption expenditure data signalling easing inflation and bolstering expectations of a Fed rate cut this week. Meanwhile, Netflix’s blockbuster USD 72 billion Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition could shake up the streaming and entertainment landscape if approved. Joining today’s show is Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team. He talks about the outlook for the US dollar; gold, silver, and copper, and why he expects a year-end rally for equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jann Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:09) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis
(08:16) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Gold over bonds

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Dec 2025 08:45:05 +0100

Data showed low US jobless claims contrasting with continued corporate layoffs, leaving rate cut expectations for next week intact. This helped US small caps to outperform. Onshore China shares are rising following strong demand for the second-largest IPO this year. Global central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time in 30 years. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, talks about volatile metals this week and what FX trading in a narrow range means for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:33) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US jobs data provides more fuel for a rate cut

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 08:42:48 +0100

Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a rate cut by the Fed next week after November private payrolls data surprised, revealing 32,000 jobs were cut (instead of the expected 40,000 added). US indices closed marginally higher on the day, with Asian markets following suit. Japan’s 30-year government bond auction saw good demand, but JGB yields remain high as markets anticipate a rate hike. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about silver - its remarkable rally and whether it is justified, and what might happen next.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:06) - Silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Stocks stage cautious rebound

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 08:44:41 +0100

Equity markets staged a cautious rebound yesterday, with major indices posting modest gains. In Europe, utilities led the advance, lifting the broader market, while in the US, leadership came from big tech and AI-related stocks. Sentiment was buoyed by SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son’s revelation that he was “practically crying” to sell the company’s Nvidia stake, alongside a strong earnings report from MongoDB. However, not all segments participated in the rally – precious metals lagged, and the energy sector saw a notable reversal. Meanwhile, DarioMessi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses expectations surrounding the still-pending appointment of a new Fed Chair for next year and how the bond market is digesting this transition.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets dip on bond supply worries and potential Japanese rate hike

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Dec 2025 08:48:49 +0100

Stocks and bonds declined amid company-specific developments and concerns over bond supply, as investors prepare for a record-level issuance of investment-grade debt in the coming days. Additionally, rising expectations of an imminent interest rate hike in Japan further pressured yields upward. In today’s programme, we welcome Manuel Villegas from Next GenerationResearch, who shares his insights on the future trajectory of artificial intelligence - and addressesthe pressing question: Is AI experiencing a bubble?

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:08) - Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(12:38) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Silver is stealing the show

Julius Baer — Mon, 01 Dec 2025 08:54:27 +0100

November closed with markets focused on hopes of a Fed rate cut, which overshadowed fears of an AI bubble. The S&P 500 made strong gains in a holiday-shortened week, while technology lagged, leaving the Nasdaq down in November for the first time after seven months of gains. European equities ended the month slightly higher, supported by the strong outperformance of Switzerland’s SMI last week. Silver is hitting new highs, while gold is also climbing. In Asia, Chinese PMI data disappointed, while India stood out with 8.2% GDP growth in the third quarter. The head of Japan’s central bank hinted at a rate rise during a speech on Monday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his views on the USD, precious metals, and his outlook for US equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets catch their breath amid eurozone data watch

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Nov 2025 08:55:02 +0100

The US Thanksgiving holiday has given stock markets globally a brief pause following the strong performance earlier in the week. With Asian markets trading mixed this morning, attention shifts to key eurozone inflation data, while US markets resume trading for a shortened session. In today’s programme, we welcome Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office, who discusses the concerns around potential cracks in the artificial intelligence capital expenditure cycle.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:23) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis
(11:29) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global equity rally boosted by tech stocks and rate cut prospects

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Nov 2025 08:54:12 +0100

Markets are now pricing in an almost 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December – this boosted tech stocks and others followed suit, prompting a global rally. US markets will be shut today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the Black Friday shopping bonanza will start tomorrow when the US market will reopen for a shortened trading session. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economic and Next Generation Research, joins the show with a timely update on energy markets and what’s driving them currently. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, rounds off the podcast by highlighting the latest moves in Sterling after the UK budget as well as this week’s action in preciousmetals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Energy Markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:41) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(15:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Risk-on sentiment drives stocks higher as oil pulls back on Ukraine developments

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Nov 2025 08:57:30 +0100

Equity markets continue to rally amid improving investor sentiment and rising expectations of further US interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, oil prices are trading lower, driven by signs of de-escalation efforts in relation to Russia’s war in Ukraine. In today’s programme, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research analyst, who shares his insights on why a stronger Japanese yen is unlikely to hinder the ongoing rise of Japanese equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Japan update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research
(17:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The Nasdaq has its best day since May

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Nov 2025 08:54:44 +0100

US equities, led by technology, rallied as confidence in artificial intelligence strengthened and rate-cut expectations grew. European defence stocks slipped amid ongoing Ukraine peace talks. Novo Nordisk tumbled, while Bayer surged on positive trial results. In Asia, Taiwan tensions kept trading cautious. Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research discusses the outlook for digital assets after last week’s sharp price drop.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:19) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets end a rough week on a strong footing

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Nov 2025 08:51:19 +0100

Last week brought significant market shifts — from concerns about bursting investment bubbles to potential peace talks in Ukraine, and a major milestone for Eli Lilly. The S&P 500 posted its second decline in three weeks, while the Nasdaq recorded a third consecutive weekly drop. However, on Friday, US markets stabilised after dovish remarks from a prominent Federal Reserve official, with most stocks closing higher. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why this is a positive signal and why last Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal, though counterintuitive, is technically a bullish indicator.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:16) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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A rare reversal in US equities

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Nov 2025 08:49:47 +0100

Stock markets swung sharply as NVIDIA’s post-earnings rally reversed into losses, triggering a sell-off on Wall Street. Robust US employment data and hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes of interest rate cuts, while defensive sectors held firm and oil prices slipped amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan unveiled a new stimulus package—the largest since the Covid crisis. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses how investors are navigating tough choices amid persistent volatility in precious metals, mixed economic indicators, and shifting currency flows, including notable Swiss franc selling this week.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:52) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva
(10:58) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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NVIDIA results ease AI bubble fears

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 08:49:27 +0100

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang shrugged off concerns about an AI bubble on Wednesday, as the company surprised Wall Street with accelerating growth after several quarters of slowing sales growth. Technology-heavy indices in Asia are trading significantly higher this morning. Defence companies came under selling pressure after news of a potential US peace plan for Ukraine. Oil also fell on the news. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his latest view on the black gold and dives deeper into the topic of data centres and related energy demand.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:50) - Oil / data centres and rising electricity prices in the US: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
(13:38) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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Markets turn cautious ahead of NVIDIA earnings

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Nov 2025 08:50:40 +0100

Investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of today’s highly anticipated NVIDIA earnings release, scheduled after market close in New York. The uncertainty weighed on equities, pushing stock indices lower and widening credit yield spreads. Notably, the equal-weighted S&P 500 held up relatively well, indicating that the downturn was not broad-based. Joining us today is Dario Messi, who shares his insights on navigating fixed income markets amid the current macroeconomic backdrop.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:38) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:58) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Fear and caution grip markets

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Nov 2025 08:51:02 +0100

Equity markets saw another sharp decline yesterday as investors awaited Wednesday’s earnings report from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia and a closely watched US jobs report later this week. Sentiment was already fragile, and news that a prominent hedge fund had sold its Nvidia stake added further pressure. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his outlook on the upcoming wave of US economic data following the end of the government shutdown and explains what these developments could mean for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:50) - With US data delivery resuming, what next for the Fed?: David Kohl, Chief Economist
(11:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US Tech stocks bounce back but need to watch out for Wednesday

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 08:47:56 +0100

After a rollercoaster session US equities rebounded by Friday’s close, with technology even ending the day in positive territory. Europe had earlier closed lower, mirroring Thursday’s US tech selloff. Overnight, Korean technology stocks drove the Kospi higher but China and Japan’s geopolitical tensions over Taiwan weighed on the broader market. Japan’s travel and tourism sectors took a hit today after China warned its citizens not to travel there. When it comes to the week ahead, watch out for the Fed minutes, a raft of US data being unleashed after the shutdown, and Nvidia’s all-important results on Wednesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical analysis covers likely trajectories for gold and the US dollar in today’s podcast, as well as revealing what the charts say about a year-end rally.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:40) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Fed hawkishness and China data weigh on investor sentiment

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Nov 2025 08:53:12 +0100

Markets turned risk-off after early optimism. European stocks reversed gains, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6%. In the US, hawkish Federal Reserve comments erased the relief rally: the Nasdaq dropped 2.3%, Bitcoin fell back below USD 100,000, and gold eased slightly. Odds of a December rate cut slipped to 50% following remarks by several Fed members, lifting US Treasury yields. US president Trump plans tariff cuts on food imports to tackle inflation. Brent crude rebounded from midweek losses. The dollar softened, the Swiss franc strengthened, the yen hit a record low against the euro, and sterling remains volatile. Weak Chinese data weighed on Asian equities, led by technology losses.

Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights that precious metals are trading with equity-like dynamics, the CHF goes from strength to strength, while the Japanese yen is under pressure.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:30) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva
(10:51) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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As the US government shutdown ends, the equity rally continues

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Nov 2025 08:46:05 +0100

We need to exclude tech stocks though. Whilst the S&P 500 rose, and the Dow Jones closed above 48,000 for the first time ever, the Nasdaq Composite closed lower yesterday, with investors further rotating out of technology and into industrials, financials and healthcare stocks. News of the end of the US government’s longest ever shutdown also provided a muted boost to Asia’s stock markets.European stocks closed broadly higher, continuing their upward trend this week. Even gold saw a relief rally. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research joins the podcast today to try to make sense of just what is driving the current rebound in the precious metal markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:14) - Gold & silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:16) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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Investors rotate out of tech

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Nov 2025 08:58:08 +0100

European equities hit fresh highs, led by Swiss stocks on tariff hopes. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Tuesday’s session also at record levels while the Nasdaq Composite faced pressure after SoftBank exited its Nvidia stake and investors moved money away from technology stocks into other parts of the market. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the potential end of the US shutdown from a bond perspective, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on the final inning of the Q3 earnings season and why he thinks healthcare is in a good place.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:36) - US corporate credit update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(09:54) - Earnings season, and a sector upgraded to Overweight: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(14:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Shutdown relief lifts sentiment across assets

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Nov 2025 08:48:37 +0100

Markets staged a broad-based rebound yesterday, driven by optimism that the US government shutdown may soon be resolved. Equities rallied, led by tech, while both Bitcoin and gold also moved higher. In Asia, early gains faded after China signalled potential restrictions on rare earth exports, and Japan’s bond auction underwhelmed. We also cover Fed Governor Miran’s dovish comments, ongoing delays in US economic data, and what to watch during today’s Veterans Day trading session. Joining us is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s Q4 performance so far, which has been overshadowed by broader economic uncertainty.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:22) - Crypto assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rebound as US government shutdown nears resolution

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Nov 2025 08:46:46 +0100

After a volatile week in equity markets – driven by valuation concerns surrounding tech and AI-related companies – stocks are climbing this morning on news that the US government shutdown may soon come to an end. Gold is also on the rise, potentially signalling the conclusion of its brief consolidation phase. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on why he believes the year-end rally is gaining momentum.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:15) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tech wobbles and Fed to cut, or not to cut?

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 08:55:53 +0100

Outplacement firm Challenger reported over 150,000 job cuts in October – the highest for the month of October in more than 20 years. US Treasury yields fell sharply, raising expectations of a December Fed rate cut, although some officials remain cautious. AI-related stocks dragged markets lower, but the selling was selective. In Europe, German industrial output beat forecasts but remains weak; while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell on disappointing earnings. In Asia, China’s exports unexpectedly declined for the first time in eight months. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the lack of short-term catalysts for China’s equity markets and our outlook on the AI investment theme, which is key to markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:19) - Asia update – Japan, Korea and China: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(13:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Data, earnings, and the Supreme Court give equities a boost

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Nov 2025 08:49:28 +0100

US, European and Asian markets have all reacted positively to news in the US yesterday. Private payrolls and ISM data revealed that the economy is more resilient than had been feared. Advanced Micro Devices’ Q3 earnings beat expectations, and their tide lifted other AI boats globally. And the Supreme Court hinted that it may well place limits on President Trump’s tariffs, although we’ll have to wait a while for any decision there. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, provides insights into the rollercoaster ride that copper has been on recently, sharing his thoughts on what might come next.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:58) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Reality check for AI sends markets lower

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Nov 2025 08:55:57 +0100

Global markets retreated yesterday as investors took a closer look at lofty AI valuations. The US dollar climbed to a three-month high, supported by persistent inflation concerns and the ongoing government shutdown. Commodities came under pressure, with both gold and oil slipping, while crypto markets saw sharp declines amid broader risk-off sentiment. In Asia, tech-led losses weighed on indices, and minutes from the Bank of Japan revealed a growing internal debate over potential rate hikes. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the US public debt dynamics, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on Q3 hyperscaler earnings, the AI bubble, and emerging market equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:21) - Q3 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(16:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets ride the AI and earnings wave, but valuation concerns linger

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Nov 2025 08:53:52 +0100

Stock markets edged higher during the European and US trading sessions, buoyed by earnings and renewed investor enthusiasm around AI-driven deals and ahead of Palantir's highly anticipated earnings release after the close. Although the company surpassed earnings expectations, its share price tumbled post-market as concerns emerged over its current valuation. In today’s discussion, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides insight into the evolving opportunities and risks within the AI ecosystem.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:34) - Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:25) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Nvidia creates a country’s economy in only 5 days

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 08:52:28 +0100

Markets were buoyed by solid tech earnings, a positive Trump–Xi meeting, and a wave of AI-related deals last week. Nvidia single-handedly created an entire country’s economy in five days. Outside the tech sector, however, equity performance was more muted. European markets lagged, weighed down by persistent inflation and cautious central bank messaging. Meanwhile, emerging market equities posted their strongest year-to-date rally since the dawn of the internet era.

Joining the show is Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team. He shares insights on what seasonality suggests for the remainder of the year, what US equity market internals are signalling, and why copper may be on the verge of a secular breakout.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:40) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis
(08:47) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets pause for breath as they digest key earnings

Julius Baer — Fri, 31 Oct 2025 08:55:56 +0100

US Markets closed slightly lower on Thursday after hyperscaler earnings raised concerns about increasing AI spending, but Apple and Amazon results after the close provided a boost to futures. The mood was further elevated by an agreement between China and the US that seemingly delays the trade war by a year. To date, October 2025 is bucking the historical trend, with the big three US indices all in positive territory. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, assesses this week’s central bank action and what to expect policy-wise going forwards. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, provides a round up of what he is seeing with the Japanese yen, the US dollar and the euro, as well as the latest on silver and gold.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:43) - Central bank meetings: David Kohl, Chief Economist
(13:03) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(17:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Rate Cuts, Record Highs, and Rare Earths

Julius Baer — Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:59:27 +0100

The US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated rate cut, but growing divisions among policymakers spooked markets. Strong AI-driven spending fuelled big-tech earnings, but the outlooks dented the bullish mood. Eurozone markets gained on robust banking performance, while the main indices in the UK and Spain hit another all-time high. The Bank of Japan opted to leave rates unchanged at its meeting today. The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi ended and has eased some global trade concerns – but underlying tensions persist. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about rare earths as well as oil in light of the latest sanctions.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:41) - Oil and rare earths: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(13:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

AI-powered markets hit new highs, but market breadth remains narrow

Julius Baer — Wed, 29 Oct 2025 08:47:44 +0100

As European markets experience some profit-taking ahead of key central bank meetings, all major US stock indices closed at record highs. However, market breadth remains narrow, driven primarily by gains in just a few mega-cap technology stocks. Today, we welcome Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his outlook on upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank – and what these developments could mean for fixed income investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:54) - Fixed income & central banks: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(13:09) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Wall Street hits record highs ahead of key earnings and central bank decisions

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 Oct 2025 08:53:03 +0100

Global equity markets rallied as optimism around US-China trade negotiations lifted investor sentiment. European trade-sensitive sectors led early gains, while Wall Street closed at new record highs, driven by strong performances in chip stocks. Gold sold off sharply and oil prices dipped. In tech, Qualcomm surged on its AI pivot, while AMD partnered with the US government on supercomputing. Argentina’s markets soared following political developments, and Japan signed new trade deals with the US. Joining the show today are Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on the unfolding earnings season, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who covers the latest developments in crypto assets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:36) - Earnings Season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(09:33) - Latest news on Crypto assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(13:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities rally on trade deal optimism

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 08:43:02 +0100

Global stocks rose on renewed optimism that the United States and China are nearing a trade agreement. The upbeat sentiment also lifted commodity prices, with copper and oil posting gains. In contrast, Treasuries declined and gold slipped. Looking ahead, investors face a pivotal week featuring interest rate decisions from four G7 central banks and earnings reports from five of the ‘Mag-7’ tech giants—Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Joining the show is Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team. He discusses the significance of Japan’s Nikkei breaking above the 50,000-point level and shares his outlook on the Swiss franc, anticipating the end of a prolonged consolidation phase.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:32) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis
(09:54) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil surges on sanctions, markets rally on earnings

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 Oct 2025 08:40:15 +0200

Oil prices spiked over 5% after the US imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s top crude producers. Meanwhile, equity markets rallied on strong corporate earnings, with European luxury and US tech stocks leading the charge. The Swiss National Bank released its first-ever policy minutes, offering insights into its current stance. In Asia, markets gained ahead of President Trump’s upcoming visit to the region, where trade and security talks with China’s President Xi are in focus. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, joins us to share his views on China, Japan, and Singapore.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:28) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(11:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Earnings and trade tensions in focus … as oil grabs the spotlight from gold

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 Oct 2025 08:52:12 +0200

European and US stocks moved lower in yesterday’s trading sessions, with earnings releases and new mooted curbs on US software exports to China doing nothing to boost the trading mood. Asia’s equity markets also reacted negatively to the escalation in trade tensions. Oil prices jumped about 3% last night after the US administration imposed further sanctions on Russia’s two largest crude companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to harm the Kremlin’s ability to raise revenue to fund its war against Ukraine. Our Head of Equity Strategy Research, Mathieu Racheter, joins the podcast to provide an update on a – so far – strong US earnings season. He explains why next week is the one to watch out for though, as it should reveal whether or not AI momentum is still building.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:11) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
(10:22) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Mixed markets, metals meltdown, and CHF strength

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:44:24 +0200

European and US equity markets were mixed yesterday, with gains from strong earnings offset by declines in mining stocks. French shares reached record highs despite political uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new peak following robust earnings. US Treasury yields fell on weak data; gold and silver saw steep declines; the USD strengthened, and the Swiss franc approached record highs amid resilient exports. India and the US are reportedly negotiating a trade deal involving lower tariffs and reduced Russian oil imports. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides his timely take on one of the sharpest declines in precious metals in years.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:04) - Gold update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:38) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rebound on upbeat earnings and easing credit concerns

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 08:53:20 +0200

Stocks bounce back on diminishing fears regarding US regional bank credit quality and positive earnings reports. Meanwhile, French assets lag on the back of waning investor confidence and company specific news in the banking sector, and the gold rally continues. Today, we are joined by Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research, who shares her thoughts on French bonds after the downgrade, on Argentina ahead of the mid-term elections on Sunday, and the credit jitters among US regional banks.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:28) - Bond market update: Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research
(12:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Turbulence, tensions & turnarounds

Julius Baer — Mon, 20 Oct 2025 08:45:38 +0200

Markets swung wildly last week as easing US-China trade tensions clashed with fresh regional bank fears. While Wall Street rebounded on Friday, Europe lagged amid banking and defence sector woes. Bond yields fell, gold slipped, and this morning Asia rallied on Japanese political shifts. All eyes now turn to earnings and US inflation data later this week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he still likes gold and why he expects equity markets to kick-off a year-end rally.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:51) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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On banks, gold and the USD

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Oct 2025 08:54:43 +0200

US stocks opened higher yesterday, but then reversed course. Small caps underperformed, and market volatility rose amid credit concerns at regional banks. In Europe, Swiss and French equity markets outperformed, supported by positive corporate news and France temporarily avoiding a political crisis. Gold extended its record-breaking rally. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell below a key threshold, reflecting weak economic data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on bank earnings and talks about US vs European banks. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, discusses key considerations amid the rally in precious metals and the recent pullback in the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:42) - Earnings season: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(09:25) - Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(13:46) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rebound on luxury rally and earnings boost

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 08:51:42 +0200

Global equities rebounded midweek, driven by a sharp rally in European luxury stocks and strong earnings from major US banks. US-China trade tensions remain in focus, with Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirming a firm stance. The AI theme continues to dominate headlines, supported by major deal announcements and robust earnings results. In commodities, both gold and oil are trading higher this Wednesday morning. Gold is benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, while oil prices are rising on reports that India may reduce its purchases of Russian crude. Today’s show features Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office, who shares his insights on the US equity market, China, and gold.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:43) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis
(13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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US earnings season opens strongly with banks

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Oct 2025 08:51:22 +0200

Equities fluctuated on mixed US–China trade signals and a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chair, which suggested that the central bank may be ready to halt balance sheet reduction. This boosted small-cap stocks and non-technology sectors, while robust bank earnings added momentum. Asian markets rose, although China lagged due to data indicating persistent deflationary pressures. Gold reached new highs, whereas oil declined amid supply concerns. Sophie Altermatt, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares our perspective on the tense US–China trade negotiations.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Developments in China: Sophie Altermatt, Macro & Next Generation Research
(10:23) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Monday’s European and US equity rally sullied by new trade war actions

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Oct 2025 08:52:40 +0200

President Trump’s Sunday post – “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine” – boosted stock markets yesterday, with further positive AI-specific headlines also providing fuel to a rally that saw the main indices clawing back a good part of their losses from Friday’s sell-off. News overnight that China is imposing curbs on American units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co. have seen markets in Asia retreat and US futures drop. Gold and silver were the winners, yet again. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to bring an update on Bitcoin, explaining why crypto assets are also impacted by geopolitical risks.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:04) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(09:19) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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Markets slide as trade tensions return

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Oct 2025 08:43:26 +0200

Global markets tumbled on Friday following renewed trade war fears sparked by President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric towards China. Major global indices saw sharp declines, while gold surged past USD 4,000 an ounce. In Europe, political uncertainty in France added to the risk-off mood, with President Macron’s surprise reappointment of Lecornu facing immediate opposition. Meanwhile, China’s latest trade data showed unexpected resilience, and Japan saw a shift in its political landscape with the dissolution of its ruling coalition. Joining us today is Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on the market fallout.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets pause as geopolitical shifts and rare earth tensions take centre stage

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Oct 2025 08:42:08 +0200

After a strong rally, US and European markets paused, with major indices closing lower amid a more cautious mood. In Europe, Ferrari’s downward revision to guidance and HSBC’s restructuring in Hong Kong weighed on sentiment, even as Germany’s DAX reached a fresh intra-day high. Geopolitical developments dominated headlines, with Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire. Gold and oil prices retreated on the news. Meanwhile, silver surged past USD 50 an ounce for the first time ever yesterday. China’s expanded restrictions on rare earth exports triggered a rally in US mining stocks, underscoring strategic tensions in global tech supply chains. In fixed income, US Treasury yields edged slightly higher amid ongoing uncertainty around a potential government shutdown, and Fed Governor Barr cautioned against premature rate cuts. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi outperformed, buoyed by strong performances from AI-driven chipmakers. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares insights on precious metals, the US dollar, and the Japanese yen.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:20) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva
(10:00) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Gold glitters, stocks rally, and China’s cracks

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Oct 2025 08:57:10 +0200

European and US equities edged higher as gold held above USD 4,000/oz amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty. Despite strong travel data, Chinese consumer sentiment remains weak, while Germany’s industrial downturn fuels structural concerns. With the Fed maintaining a dovish stance and political tensions easing in France, investors turn to upcoming earnings and central bank cues. Today, we’re joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, to discuss his outlook for the Q3 earnings season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:21) - Q3 Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(13:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Gold breaks records as markets pause

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 09:00:29 +0200

Global equity markets paused after a strong rally, with US equities dipping slightly and bringing an end to a seven-day winning streak as Oracle’s weak cloud margins raised concerns about profitability in AI infrastructure. European stocks remained flat, though French luxury brands outperformed. Airbus broke a major commercial barrier when its A320 family of planes overtook the Boeing 737 to become the most delivered jetliner in history. In currencies, the yen and euro weakened amid political shifts, while the US dollar strengthened. Meanwhile, gold surged past USD 4000 per ounce, continuing its record-breaking run. To talk about what is behind the recent rally and the outlook for this precious metal, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research. Also on the show today is Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who shares his insights on Japan and China – and what recent developments mean for global investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:56) - Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:17) - Japan & China: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(16:21) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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US stocks hit fresh highs on deals and despite geopolitics

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 09:05:41 +0200

Major US equity indices, from small caps to tech, hit fresh highs yesterday, spurred by strong corporate news – from semiconductors to banking deals. Political uncertainty in France and Japan lifted bond yields, weakened the yen and euro, and drove gold towards the historic USD 4,000 per ounce level, while oil rose on a modest OPEC+ output increase. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research, assesses the outlook for France following the surprise resignation of its prime minister. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, sees the AI investment surge as a boom – not (yet) a bubble.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(05:48) - Impact of French politics on markets: Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research
(08:07) - Cloud computing and Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(12:19) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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All eyes on Japan as markets rally ahead of historic leadership shift

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 08:44:21 +0200

Japanese equities surge to fresh record highs as Sanae Takaichi – known for being pro-stimulus - has won the LDP leadership and is likely to become the country's first female prime minister. Consequently, Japanese government bond yields have risen, while the yen weakened against major currencies. Meanwhile, both bitcoin and gold extended their rallies, reaching new highs as investors seek out alternative stores of value. Today, we welcome Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on whether the current momentum behind gold’s upward trajectory is sustainable - or if a correction may be on the horizon.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:22) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:30) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rally, unfazed by Washington turmoil

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 Oct 2025 08:54:16 +0200

Global stock markets rally to fresh record highs amid upbeat developments in the automotive and artificial intelligence sectors, with gains extending beyond the US into European bourses. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has re-entered acquisition mode for the first time since 2022, signalling renewed confidence in deal-making opportunities. In today’s podcast, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, who shares his latest insights on commodity markets – with a particular focus on oil and natural gas.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:48) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(11:04) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Financial markets shrug off the shutdown and embrace AI

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 Oct 2025 08:55:04 +0200

European and US stock markets rallied on Wednesday, seemingly unconcerned by the US government shutdown. The S&P 500 closed above the 6,700 level for the first time ever. Asian stocks, particularly in South Korea, were boosted overnight after OpenAI signed an agreement with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for them to supply the company with memory chips. OpenAI also completed a share sale at a record USD 500 billion valuation, making the creator of ChatGPT the world’s most valuable startup. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva shares what he is seeing in terms of market activity in precious metals – there are some surprising revelations. His thoughts on investors only being conceptually bearish on the USD are also worth hearing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:40) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:15) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Washington shuts its doors

Julius Baer — Wed, 01 Oct 2025 08:59:12 +0200

September saw strong gains across markets, with the S&P 500 up 3%. Hong Kong outperformed, rising 7%. Gold hit multiple highs and credit spreads narrowed to multi-year lows. Yesterday, healthcare rallied after Pfizer announced discounted drug sales via a new government platform. Switzerland and the United States issued a joint statement opposing currency manipulation. In Asia, trading was subdued due to China’s Golden Week, while Tokyo declined on interest rate concerns. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, comments on the US government shutdown, noting that while politically sensitive, the market impact is likely to remain limited.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:58) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:29) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets hold firm as shutdown fears loom

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Sep 2025 08:50:02 +0200

European markets closed higher yesterday, buoyed by strong performances in the healthcare and luxury sectors. In the US, concerns over a potential government shutdown failed to dampen investor sentiment, as a rebound in AI-related stocks helped support equity markets. Beyond market movements, President Trump unveiled a proposed plan to address the conflict in Gaza, alongside announcing a new wave of tariffs targeting a wide range of goods from films to furniture. In commodities, gold continues its impressive rally, reaching yet another record high. Meanwhile, oil prices declined sharply amid expectations that OPEC+ may increase output in November. Joining us on today’s episode is James Haunso from Next Generation Research, who shares a timely and insightful update on the cybersecurity investment theme.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:15) - Cybersecurity: James Haunso, Next Generation Research
(12:04) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Equities rebound and gold reaches another all-time high

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Sep 2025 08:56:08 +0200

Markets faced a turbulent week, starting with caution amid hawkish Fed commentary and trade tensions, but ending on a more optimistic note thanks to a solid US inflation report. Global equities rebounded on Friday, though US equities still closed the week in negative territory. In contrast, European markets held steady, supported by robust economic data and reassurance regarding pharmaceutical tariffs. Meanwhile, gold continues its upward momentum. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he still likes the precious metal, he discusses this year’s lacklustre performance of Swiss equities and offers guidance for Swiss investors, noting that the Swiss franc is expected to strengthen further.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rattle as data surprises and tariffs return

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 Sep 2025 08:51:59 +0200

Markets hit some rough patches yesterday, with all major European indices closing lower, followed by similar losses across the three main US benchmarks. Revised US data revealed an upward adjustment to second-quarter GDP, while jobless claims came in below expectations. This prompted markets to reassess the outlook for future interest rate cuts. Overnight, trade tensions resurfaced as US President Trump announced new tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals and heavy-duty trucks. Asian pharmaceutical stocks were quick to react, reflecting renewed concerns over global trade policy. Today, attention turns to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Joining us to unpack the latest developments in currencies and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:07) - Gold and silver: Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) – FX and PM
(12:15) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Product & Investment Content

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Have equity markets hit an air pocket?

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 08:48:40 +0200

US indices closed lower yesterday, despite good performance by some individual names, notably Intel, which rallied 6.4% after reports of a possible investment by Apple. President Trump’s announcements regarding Ukraine boosted defence stocks globally and semiconductor stocks powered the Asian indices. Today’s US jobless claims and tomorrow’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will now be closely monitored for signs of the Fed’s intentions. With gold and silver continuing to rally, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides some insights into why the inflows are continuing at such a strong pace, as he unpicks central bank and investor demand.

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US equities slide as Nvidia-OpenAI deal raises questions

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Sep 2025 08:55:00 +0200

US equities struggled to keep up with the recent momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 posting its worst day in three weeks, while the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 saw even larger declines. Questions around the Nvidia-OpenAI-deal weighed on segment. Over in Europe, there was much more of a risk-on tone after the September flash PMIs painted a picture of ongoing resilience. Powell did not offer any groundbreaking revelations in yesterday’s press conference, reiterating his arguments for last week’s rate cut. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses what the restarted rate cutting cycle means for equities going into year end, as well as what he thinks about Swiss equities after August’s tariff shock.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:52) - Equity market update and outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(11:40) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Headwinds in Europe, tailwinds in big tech – and momentum building in Asia

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:52:46 +0200

European markets have recently underperformed compared to their US counterparts, with German automakers weighing heavily on broader indices yesterday. Meanwhile, US technology stocks continue to power ahead, buoyed by another significant development in the AI space—the announcement of a partnership of Nvidia with one of its largest customers, OpenAI. In today’s episode of Moving Markets, we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who sheds light on how the ongoing AI boom is driving growth not just in the US, but also across select Asian markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:07) - China and Japan in focus: Richard Tang, Head of Equity Research Hong Kong
(13:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US equity strength sets up a promising finish

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:48:51 +0200

Wall Street trades at record highs after the Fed cut rates, led by technology stocks. Investors expect further cuts, but hawkish Fed comments pushed both US Treasury yields and the dollar higher last week. In Europe, data showed industrial output rebounding; in Asia, Bank of Japan’s ETF unwind plans initially weighed on Japanese shares, but concerns are easing this Monday. Gold rises for a fifth week with record ETF inflows, Apple climbs after the iPhone 19 launch, and Porsche postpones its EV launch. Trump’s USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee threatens US tech and India-US relations. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that strong US equities year-to-date and in September bode very well for the rest of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:47) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Equities cheer Fed Rate cuts

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Sep 2025 09:02:09 +0200

All of the major US equity indices hit a new all-time high, a day after the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of the year and stronger-than-expected economic data. Europe followed suit with strength in semiconductor stocks. Central banks diverged: Norway cut rates, the Bank of England held steady, and the Bank of Japan surprised by announcing plans to offload its large equity ETF holdings. Asian markets are mixed, with Japanese stocks volatile and Asian dollar bond spreads at record lows—reflecting global optimism in credit markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his take on this week’s central bank decisions, while Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, examines the USD and gold following a central bank heavy week.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:08) - Central bank actions – implications for bonds: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:28) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva
(16:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The Fed is back to lowering rates

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Sep 2025 08:41:33 +0200

The US central bank delivered a widely expected rate cut, sparking mixed market reactions amid cautious optimism. Tech stocks wobbled, especially Nvidia, after China’s internet regulator had told the country’s tech companies to stop buying Nvidia’s AI chips and terminate its existing orders. Robotaxis and a USD 42 billion tech pact between the US and the UK fuelled gains elsewhere. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains copper’s role in powering the AI revolution and what the Fed decision means for the gold price.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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It’s Fed day!

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 08:51:42 +0200

Yesterday brought a mixed set of signals across global markets. We saw unexpected optimism from Germany, developments on the US–China trade front, stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures, and mounting anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Equity markets in both Europe and the US ended the session lower, partly weighed down by profit-taking ahead of the policy announcement. In contrast, gold surged to new highs, breaking through the USD 3,700 per ounce mark. Today, all eyes are on the Fed, its forward guidance, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference that will follow the rate decision. Joining us on the show is Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who provides deeper insights into the rate decision, equity market valuations, and the outlook for emerging markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:30) - Equity markets in Fed week: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(12:31) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Global equities rally, and French government bond yields making headlines

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:55:37 +0200

Global stocks rise on upbeat US-China trade talks, with technology giants driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. Alphabet is joining the USD 3 trillion club, while Tesla is surging after Elon Musk’s USD 1 billion share purchase. US chip stocks are facing pressure from Chinese antitrust probes, and gold is at an all-time high on rate cut expectations. European markets are gaining despite France’s credit downgrade, with French 10-year government bond yields above their Italian counterparts – a first since 1999. Asian equities reach a 4-year high on strength in technology, and Tencent is launching its first offshore yuan bond. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research shares insights on the ‘Buy now, pay later’ industry.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:21) - Future of finance: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Rate decisions ahead – a make-or-break week for markets?

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:52:33 +0200

Markets are off to a strong start this week, which will be a critical one with a 'triple-header' of major central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all scheduled to announce their latest monetary policy moves. Recent economic data suggest it may now be time for the Fed to restart its rate-cutting cycle, following a pause that began in January. In today’s discussion, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who anticipates further declines in US Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar. He also expects equities to continue their upward momentum, supported by improving technicals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:06) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:58) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rally as ECB holds rates and US data fuels Fed rate cut bets

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:46:53 +0200

marked a second consecutive pause following eight hikes since last year. In the US, data was mixed: inflation remains sticky but isn’t accelerating, and jobless claims unexpectedly surged. These developments have reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Asian markets were lifted overnight by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. In commodities, gold is trading near record highs, while oil has pulled back from earlier gains this week as investors refocus on fundamentals. Joining us today is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on what the ECB’s decision and US inflation data mean for bond markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:07) - Fixed income markets after ECB and US inflation data: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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New record closing and intraday highs for US stocks

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 09:01:08 +0200

US equities surged again yesterday, closing off their intraday highs but nevertheless achieving new records. US PPI data confirmed that growth is slowing, providing more of the data that the Fed needs to start cutting rates again – markets will now scrutinise today’s CPI data for more clues. Oracle’s near 36% rally yesterday was sparked by astonishing cloud demand numbers. Asian tech also drove markets there higher. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, explains why his team believes oil prices should trend lower and gold higher in the next 12 months, whilst Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides some insights into relative trends in equity style factor performance and why they are important when making portfolio decisions.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:35) - Oil and gold: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(10:05) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis
(14:12) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Higher ground – equities rise on rate hopes and merger activity

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Sep 2025 08:59:10 +0200

Stocks in the US hit another all-time high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will fight the slowdown in jobs growth with interest rate cuts. US inflation data out today and tomorrow will be the next test for markets. The Anglo/Teck ‘merger-of-equals’ creates a premier global player in copper and critical minerals. Today, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who explains why he believes markets will grind higher into year-end, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PMPrivate Banking Sales Geneva, who shares his current insights on currencies and metals markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:39) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(13:03) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(17:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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French government collapses as Bayrou loses confidence vote

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 08:46:25 +0200

French Prime Minister Bayrou lost the confidence vote yesterday, triggering the collapse of his government. European markets had no chance to react, as the decision came after trading ended. The political uncertainty adds fresh strain to the eurozone, where stock markets actually started the week on a high. Speaking of highs, the Nasdaq hit a fresh record, driven by strength in tech and AI-related stocks, while gold also rallied to a new peak, supported by expectations of a US rate cut and ongoing geopoliticaltensions. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly touched a record intraday high before turning negative, as investors assess the implications of Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation. Joining us today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the video game industry and the structural transformation it’s undergoing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(05:40) - Video game industry undergoing structural transformation: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(09:06) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Japan’s stock markets rally after PM resigns

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Sep 2025 08:48:30 +0200

The Nikkei 225 was up around 1.5% and the Topix hit a record high this morning after Japan’s prime minister resigned over the weekend. It’s hoped that a new regime should provide greater longer-term policy and political stability, and a more conducive pro-growth environment for the equities market. Asia’s stock markets rallied after the US jobs report on Friday provided further justification for data-based Fed rate cuts.At the start of a big week including inflation data, a vote of confidence in the French government and the September ECB meeting, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that there’s room for both US equities and the price of gold to rally further and for US Treasury yields to keep falling.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A new all-time high in time for the labour market report

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Sep 2025 08:56:24 +0200

The S&P 500 is trading at fresh all-time highs ahead of today’s crucial US non-farm payrolls report, which iswidely seen as the final piece of the puzzle that could give the Federal Reserve the go-ahead to resume cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, Asian markets are rising, buoyed by positive trade developments out of Japan and broader optimism in the region. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of Private Banking Sales in Geneva for FX and Precious Metals, to discuss which currencies – beyond the usual suspects – could benefit from a renewed weakening of the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:03) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(11:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US tech rally can’t help Chinese stocks

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:02:04 +0200

Google avoiding worst-case penalties in its antitrust case lifted tech stocks yesterday, which drove the good performance of both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500. Meanwhile, US job openings data provided a boost to US Treasuries, fuelling hopes of a September rate cut. Asia joined the rally, with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. The latter had news specific to Nidec Corp to digest but China’s dropcame on the back of news that financial regulators are said to be considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market following its spectacular rally since the start of August. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to shed light on the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:53) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Long term yields spike on fiscal concerns – stocks dive and gold rallies

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:51:14 +0200

Global long-term government bond yields spike amid renewed concerns over fiscal sustainability. This has put pressure on equities, which declined broadly – though certain sectors held up better, including luxury stocks. In the US, both major indices ended the session lower, though they recovered somewhat from their intraday lows. Meanwhile, gold emerged as a key beneficiary, climbing to new all-time highs as investorssought safe-haven assets. Alphabet and Apple shares surged in extended trading following a favourable court ruling. Joining us today is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and he explains why he isn’t overly alarmed by the rise in long-end yields.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:47) - Fixed income markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Start of September brings gains for European equities and gold

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:45:30 +0200

With US markets closed yesterday for a public holiday, attention was firmly on European markets, where equities began the new month on a positive note. Two sectors led the gains: defence and healthcare. Meanwhile, European bond markets weakened slightly, weighed down by ongoing concerns over France’s political stability and fiscal outlook. Overnight in Asia, markets traded mixed as investors digested developments from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit amid lingering uncertainty over tariffs. In commodities, gold hit a fresh record high, while oil prices were supported by worries of potential supply disruptions. Joining us today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who discusses the latest developments in AI data centre projects – specifically in Asia – and their role in advancing global AI innovation and deployment.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:51) - Artificial Intelligence news: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Precious metals shine as markets open September

Julius Baer — Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:59:02 +0200

August saw strong gains in global equities, particularly in the Dow Jones, as well as indices in both China, and Japan. Gold has hit a four-month high nearing USD 3,500 per ounce this morning, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence and uncertainty around US tariffs. Silver is breaking the USD 40 an ounce level – for the first time since 2011 – boosted by supply constraints and rising demand from the clean energy sector. After tech profit-taking last week and ongoing political risks in France, investors face a seasonally weak September with pivotal US labour market data due on Friday and the anticipation of US rate cuts later in the month. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that declining US corporate bond yields bodes well for US stocks, while gold and silver offer further upside.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:23) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:16) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Fed independence in the spotlight as markets await key inflation gauge

Julius Baer — Fri, 29 Aug 2025 09:01:29 +0200

Yesterday saw a flurry of economic data releases, accompanied by significant political developments. The US economy demonstrated stronger-than-expected resilience in the second quarter, expanding at a revised annualised rate of 3.3%, while recent labour market figures suggest a supportive backdrop. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, followed by her decision to sue the President, could have a profound effect on the relationship between the White House and the central bank. Stock markets remained robust yesterday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new intraday high. Attention now turns to today's key US economic data release: the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation.

Joining us today are Nenad Dinic, who offers insights into the French equity market amid ongoing political uncertainty, and Tim Gagie, who provides an update on the current trends in FX and precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(06:25) - Equity update – France: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research
(10:38) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(15:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Nvidia beats but its share price tumbles in after-markets trading

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:52:21 +0200

French stocks have staged a modest recovery following the recent sell-off, while government bond spreads relative to neighbouring Germany have continued to widen. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 reached a new record high, as investors awaited Nvidia's Q2 earnings report after the market close. Despite exceeding analyst expectations, Nvidia's share price declined in after-hours trading. To discuss how current geopolitical developments may influence commodity prices, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:23) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(12:02) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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After Jackson Hole is ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Aug 2025 08:49:23 +0200

French political uncertainty sparks market jitters, sending European equities tumbling, with the CAC 40 falling a further 1.7% yesterday. In contrast, US stocks buck the trend despite concerns over the Fed's independence. Today, market participants will focus on upcoming corporate earnings, in particular Nvidia's quarterly results. And we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show to discuss what Jackson Hole and the French confidence vote mean for bond markets, and what fixed income investors should do now.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:52) - What Jackson Hole and the French confidence vote mean for bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:30) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump tries a new tack to unsettle the Fed

Julius Baer — Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:57:08 +0200

The US President attempted to sack Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook yesterday – a move that saw the dollar fall and gold gain. These moves were somewhat reversed when Governor Cook’s lawyer called the action illegal and lacking proper process and Cook vowed not to quit. Trump was also in the news for threatening “200% tariffs or something” on China if it does not export rare-earth magnets to the US. European markets closed Monday lower with the CAC 40 down more than 1.6% after the country’s Prime Minister announced that he will seek a confidence vote in parliament next month over the government’s budget plans. US markets also traded lower on Monday following Friday’s rally, and Asia followed suit with the exception of China’s CSI 300 which traded marginally higher. Richard Tang, Head of Equity Research Asia, shares his thoughts on the recent Chinese equity rally and explains why he now believes that A shares should outperform H shares. He also provides insights into his preferred sectors for those looking to get on board.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(01:05) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(07:07) - Asia update, including China: Richard Tang, Head of Equity Research Asia
(12:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Jerome Powell opens the door to interest rate cuts

Julius Baer — Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:50:23 +0200

Global markets have rallied following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish speech on Friday that opened the door to interest rate cuts. In response, stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto assets surged, while the US dollar has fallen. Asian equity markets are following Wall Street this morning, led by shares in Hong Kong. The US government will acquire a 9.9% stake in Intel. Looking ahead to the week, key events include Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday after the market close, as well as crucial inflation data releases on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, market breadth indicators in the US and Europe suggest further stock market gains are likely through to the end of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:20) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

S&P 500 continues to slide, while Walmart warns of tariff impact

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Aug 2025 08:43:04 +0200

US stocks extended their losses amid trade tensions and mixed corporate earnings. Stronger-than-expected PMI data and warnings from Walmart, the US retail giant, that Trump's tariffs are driving up costs, have heightened inflation concerns and lifted yields. As markets are looking for direction, investors eagerly await Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's keynote speech at Jackson Hole, seeking guidance on future interest rates. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Solutions Geneva, discusses what this means for the US dollar and in which currencies he sees opportunities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:22) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A significant intra-day reversal in US technology stocks

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Aug 2025 08:49:49 +0200

The Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 1.5% before recovering to close just 0.6% lower. Markets remain on edge ahead of key events, including Jay Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow, whilst the USD remains unchanged and gold rises amid concerns over Fed independence. UK inflation surged to an 18-month high and government bonds rallied, lifting large-cap UK stocks, whilst Asian markets showed mixed results, with technology-heavy Korea and Taiwan rising and Japan's Nikkei 225 falling. Shares in Shanghai have reached their highest in a decade. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the Circular Economy investment theme, focusing on the plastic problem.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:34) - Circular Economy: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:26) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Tech stocks stumble but the broader market holds up

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Aug 2025 08:55:47 +0200

While major European stock markets experienced a cautiously optimistic trading session, buoyed by hopes of de-escalation in Ukraine, the main US indices ended the day in negative territory, led by declines in large-cap technology stocks. Nevertheless, a notable 70% of S&P 500 constituents managed to finish higher, as investors looked ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium, which begins tomorrow, for fresh insights into future monetary policy. For expert analysis, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his perspectives on these developments, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the potential implications of a peace agreement for European equities, especially the defence sector.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:38) - Expectations for Jackson Hole: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:12) - Defence stocks in the wake of peace talks: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(16:12) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Financial markets cautiously optimistic after Trump-Zelenskyy meeting

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Aug 2025 09:04:04 +0200

President Zelenskyy’s second meeting at the White House delivered more smiles than his first but resulted in expectations rather than deals. President Trump has announced that he will now set up a face-to-face meeting for Ukraine and Russia’s leaders, and President Zelenskyy has made security guarantees a ‘starting point for ending the war’. Financial markets are breathing a small sigh of relief and now turning their attention to the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium starting on Thursday. Meanwhile, technological advancements and product innovations in the asset management space are blurring the divide between public and private markets, and the exchange traded fund (ETF) market is now undergoing something of a revolution – Next Generation analyst Manuel Villegas joins the podcast to explain the trend and what it might mean for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:27) - Future of finance: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Ukraine, the Fed, and market breadth

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Aug 2025 08:53:19 +0200

Major equity markets surge to new highs, driven by easing trade tensions, robust US earnings, and expectations of US interest rate cuts even as US inflation remains a concern. This trend is also reflected in US investment-grade credit spreads, which have reached their lowest level since 1998. Meanwhile, Indian markets are up over 1% today, following news of a planned cut in consumption tax. Looking ahead, investors are eagerly anticipating several key events this week, including today's meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump in Washington DC, the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his insights on what market breadth reveals about our regional equity preferences from a technical perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(06:34) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trump-Putin summit takes centre stage after hot US inflation data

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Aug 2025 08:51:50 +0200

Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data prompted a reassessment of rate cut expectations, driving yields and the US dollar higher. Although most stocks fell, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a marginal gain, largely due tothe strong performance of major tech companies. Notably, Intel’s stock jumped on news that the Trump administration was considering taking a stake in the beleaguered chipmaker. Attention now turns to the upcoming Trump-Putin summit, where discussions may significantly impact safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc. To explore the potential implications and trading opportunities, Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions, shares his insights.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:16) - FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
(08:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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So many all-time highs

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Aug 2025 09:02:12 +0200

Benchmark equity indices in the US, Italy, Spain, and the UK have surged to new highs, fuelled by a benign US inflation report and Germany's inflation data confirming a sub-2% reading. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says US interest rates could be 150 to 175 basis points lower. Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high, with Ether also close to its record high. Japanese shares are down on a stronger yen, after previously reaching a record high. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, weighs in on the energy market outlook: from oil to gas and Friday's US-Russia summit.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:14) - Update on oil and gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(13:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets at new all-time highs as US inflation remains contained

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Aug 2025 08:59:59 +0200

The latest US inflation figures for July sent stocks soaring to new all-time highs once again. With a 25 basis-point rate cut in September now widely anticipated by market participants, expectations are running high. In contrast, European markets underperformed due to disappointing economic data from Germany. Joining us today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research. Dario shares his rationale for why he doesn't foresee any significant yield spikes, while Mathieu provides insight into the challenges facing the pharmaceutical sector and the shifting landscape of market leadership in Europe.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(00:37) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Fixed Income: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:34) - Equities: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(18:10) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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All eyes on today’s US inflation report

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Aug 2025 08:42:31 +0200

The main question on everyone’s mind is whether today's US inflation report will corroborate the narrative of easing inflation, potentially paving the way for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A stronger-than-expected inflation figure would serve as a reality check for investors. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, such as the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, and trade news, including the extension of the US-China trade truce, are dominating the headlines. Overnight, the Australian central bank cut interest rates, whilst Japanese shares reached new record highs. Joining us on the show to discuss the recent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum is Manuel Villegas from our Next Generation Research team.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:08) - Digital assets – Bitcoin and Ethereum rally: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks move higher but this week’s inflation data will be crucial

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:54:52 +0200

US stocks are on a tear with the S&P 500 trading just a whisker below its all-time high and the Nasdaq shining thanks to renewed enthusiasm around tech and artificial intelligence stocks. European stocks are also having a good run with banks in the lead. However, Switzerland has been lagging after the hefty 39% levies on Swiss exports to the US took effect on Thursday. This week’s inflation data will be decisive in terms of whether markets can rally further. Joining us this morning is Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on the direction of US yields and explains why he believes in a rise in gold prices during the second half of this year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:23) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:16) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Plenty on the plate for markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Aug 2025 08:53:56 +0200

Once again, investors are facing a flood of news to digest – from tariff updates, such as Japan’s announcement that the US will end the stacking of universal tariffs and cut levies on cars; to central bank developments, including the Bank of England’s rate decision and the appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; to company-specific headlines, such as Eli Lilly’s latest study results; and geopolitical updates, including a potential Trump - Putin meeting. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the currencies and metals markets is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:22) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(12:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Earnings boost markets but tariffs loom large

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 08:53:39 +0200

Markets are in a positive mood, driven by corporate earnings that are exceeding expectations, and this is despite further 'tariff sabre-rattling' by President Donald Trump, who announced a potential 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors that are not manufactured in the US. Meanwhile, Switzerland has yet to successfully negotiate a reduction in the US tariff of 39%. Yields are slightly higher this morning, partly due to the underwhelming demand in yesterday’s auction of new 10-year US Treasuries. For insights into the bank's investment strategy, we are joined by Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Investment Analysis team.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(05:47) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis
(10:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Trade news and macro data keep investors on their toes

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Aug 2025 08:59:40 +0200

With tariffs on Switzerland still in focus, a small Swiss delegation travels to Washington to negotiate a resolution. Meanwhile, emerging tariff threats for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are weighing on market sentiment. Beyond trade developments, investors must digest a slew of macroeconomic figures and reports from the ongoing earnings season. The US Federal Reserve is also in the spotlight, especially after President Trump announced his intention to nominate a new Fed Chair by the end of the week. To provide clarity amidst the market turmoil, we welcome Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, to the show today.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:21) - Is Fed independence really at risk? Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(13:24) - Swiss equities and Q2 earnings in focus: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(19:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Markets bounce back – Switzerland lags on tariff shock

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:51:08 +0200

European and US stocks staged a recovery rally yesterday, although the Swiss market trailed behind following the recent 39% tariff shock. Meanwhile, yields have fallen sharply across Europe due to robust real money demand. In the US, yields have also dipped slightly, as markets now largely anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September. With a comprehensive update on the current state of the Swiss property market, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory and Intelligence.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(05:24) - Real estate update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence
(11:22) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Higher tariffs and lower jobs numbers hit equity markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:56:46 +0200

President Trump’s team delivered more tariff surprises ahead of the weekend with conditions worsening for both Canada and Switzerland. Then the jobs data delivered some ugly news for the US economy, with severe downward revisions to May and June’s data which saw the bearer of the tidings - the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – lose her job. Added to this, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her early departure from office, leaving the President with two new job announcements to make. It’s therefore no surprise that equity markets fell, and US treasuries rallied, as markets more than doubled their previous day’s bet on a September rate cut to 87.5%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to provide insights into how the tariff news might impact Swiss investors as he discusses rates, the Swiss franc and Swiss equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(06:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Tech giants lift markets after Fed-induced decline

Julius Baer — Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:45:17 +0200

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations that the central bank may cut interest rates at its September meeting, leading to a modest decline in stock prices. However, after the close of trading, both Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings for Q2, with their shares rising substantially, which could set the stage for a positive trading day ahead. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, offers his insights on the current strength of the US dollar and identifies potential opportunities as we head into August.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(07:26) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Solid earnings, growth upgrade, and a sell-off

Julius Baer — Wed, 30 Jul 2025 08:48:16 +0200

European equities rebounded yesterday, driven by largely positive earnings, as the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast for this year and next, citing reduced US trade war impact and a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk makes headlines with a 30% share dive on revised sales and profit guidance, and US equities lose steam ahead of today’s Fed meeting. For more on the earnings season so far and ahead of the four mega-cap tech stocks that are scheduled for this week, we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(05:55) - Q2 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(11:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Market optimism faded quickly yesterday

Julius Baer — Tue, 29 Jul 2025 08:53:20 +0200

The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump’s renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today.

Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(06:12) - Central Banks and Trade Deals: David Kohl, Chief Economist
(12:26) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Trade tensions ease as US and EU strike a deal

Julius Baer — Mon, 28 Jul 2025 08:48:05 +0200

The European Union and the United States have reached a significant trade agreement, substantially reducing the likelihood of an all-out trade war. While some details remain unclear, the markets have responded favourably to the announcement. In a related development, Chinese and US officials are set to convene in Stockholm today to discuss easing trade tensions. Markets have a lot to digest this week with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the latest US jobs data due. Also, it is a busy week for company earnings reports, with four of the Mag7 companies reporting, among other. As always on Mondays, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to share his views on markets from a technical analysis perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(05:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:35) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

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The ECB keeps rates unchanged

Julius Baer — Fri, 25 Jul 2025 08:58:09 +0200

Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on gold. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, explains why the precious metal has consolidated since Liberation Day, and why he agrees with the consensus view of higher prices for metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(05:54) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Progress in trade negotiations lift markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 08:50:08 +0200

Global equity markets rally on US-Japan trade deal progress, sparking hopes for EU agreements, with equities surging and gold easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaches a new all-time high, as does the S&P 500. In earnings: Alphabet surprises positively, while Tesla disappoints. Companies reporting today include industry giants like Nestle, Roche, Deutsche Bank, and LVMH. The ECB is not expected to cut rates today, with the market’s focus on its outlook. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses China's historic new hydropower project – which is six times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam – and explores its potential impact on iron ore and steel prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(05:58) - Iron ore and steel: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Earnings and trade deals keep markets busy

Julius Baer — Wed, 23 Jul 2025 08:45:06 +0200

The current earnings season is proving particularly intriguing, with some companies surpassing analyst expectations and others struggling, particularly due to the impact of US tariffs. On the subject of tariffs, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal has boosted market confidence and fuelled optimism that others, such as the European Union, may also be able to secure similar deals. Meanwhile, attention is slowly but surely shifting towards interest rate decisions, with the ECB set to announce its decision tomorrow and the US Federal Reserve scheduled to follow next week. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update and outlook on the crypto space.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:10) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:37) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

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US stocks hit a new record - despite trade unease

Julius Baer — Tue, 22 Jul 2025 08:50:49 +0200

The US stock market reached new heights, driven by the strong performance of several of the top tech giants, but the broader market failed to follow suit. Meanwhile, government bond yields declined across the board as the deadline for President Trump's trade negotiations, set for 1 August, draws closer. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, offers his insights on the Japanese market in the aftermath of the recent election upheaval and provides a comprehensive overview of the earnings season thus far.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(07:04) - Implications of Japan elections and earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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A historic upset in Japan

Julius Baer — Mon, 21 Jul 2025 08:53:45 +0200

Japan's Upper House election has sparked market uncertainty after the ruling LDP coalition lost control. Nevertheless, the JPY remained surprisingly stable. The S&P 500 and MSCI World indices reached new heights last week, bolstered by robust economic data and impressive corporate earnings. The US Congress passes legislation regulating stablecoins, thereby giving credibility to the digital asset industry. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, the CHF is likely to maintain its strength, and small- and mid-cap stocks are currently preferred over large-cap equivalents in the Swiss equities market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(06:09) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Markets buoyed by strong earnings and data

Julius Baer — Fri, 18 Jul 2025 08:57:20 +0200

Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attention centred on Japan ahead of its upper house elections this weekend. On the commodities front, oil prices remain steady, whereas gold has edged down slightly this morning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar have both appreciated. We are joined today by Bence Boldvai from FX/PM Solutions, who discusses the latest developments in currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:26) - FX and metals: Bence Boldvai, FX/PM Solutions
(11:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trump escalates attack on Fed independence

Julius Baer — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 08:50:26 +0200

The US President’s comments regarding potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked market volatility. The initial reaction was swift, with the dollar and stocks tumbling, but the market later showed resilience with the S&P 500 rising. Strong US bank earnings and mixed inflation signals added to the complex picture. Global trade tensions weighed on European stocks, with shares of ASML and Renault plunging, while in Asia, TSMC came out with strong results. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides some impressive numbers behind Bitcoin’s march to a new all-time high.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(06:39) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tariffs have arrived in US inflation data

Julius Baer — Wed, 16 Jul 2025 08:55:39 +0200

Stocks retreated in response to US inflation data, which met expectations but showed that tariffs have arrived in inflation figures. The earnings season has started with mixed bank earnings dragging down broader equity markets, while the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a record high on gains by chip giant Nvidia. This followed the US decision to ease restrictions on selling AI chips to China. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect from the earnings season and why he sees more upside potential for the defence sector. And Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why Japanese bond yields increased so strongly and Japan’s election this weekend remains a risk event.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(06:14) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:52) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(16:21) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

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Market focus shifts to earnings as tariff threats linger

Julius Baer — Tue, 15 Jul 2025 08:54:25 +0200

Stock markets continue to show resilience in the face of the latest US tariff threats and potential countermeasures from trading partners such as the EU. Other significant news yesterday included French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to substantially increase defence spending, while the US shifted its stance towards Russia, threatening to introduce secondary sanctions. Overnight in Asia, investors digested a slew of Chinese macroeconomic data and the latest increase in Japanese government bond yields. Today, the focus shifts to US banks as they kick off the earnings season. Also joining the show today is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, with an update on gold and silver.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:16) - Gold and silver update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets take a wait-and-see stance amid escalating trade tensions

Julius Baer — Mon, 14 Jul 2025 08:56:57 +0200

Markets take note of the escalating trade tensions, yet their response appears surprisingly subdued. The US dollar has edged upwards, just like global long-term yields, and stock prices have dipped slightly. Investors seem to be adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the ongoing developments and hoping that some political flexibility can be maintained until 1 August. In addition, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the specific drivers of China's onshore and offshore markets, as well as the potential significance of Japan's upcoming upper-house elections for the country's government.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:29) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(16:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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US stocks and Bitcoin reach new records

Julius Baer — Fri, 11 Jul 2025 08:59:54 +0200

US equities reach another record high as investors downplay tariff concerns, buoyed by a positive forecast from Delta Airlines. Bitcoin soars to a new all-time high, exceeding USD 118,000. European shares see modest gains, with the Swiss market leading the way due to advancements in healthcare, and the UK market rising on the back of strong commodity performance following the announcement of the US copper tariffs. The original Hermès Birkin handbag is sold for EUR 8.58 million. According to Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, the US dollar's downward trend remains in place, although he notes that July and August are typically not periods of strong trends.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(06:15) - FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
(08:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

New tariff threats fail to dent enthusiasm for equities

Julius Baer — Thu, 10 Jul 2025 09:02:15 +0200

President Trump delivers more tariff letters and lays down the gauntlet to Brazil – announcing a 50% tariff on their exports into the US. Copper also faces a 50% import tariff. US markets rally on artificial intelligence enthusiasm as Nvidia buoys tech stocks, becoming the first company ever to reach a valuation of USD 4 trillion. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, provides his thoughts on the latest tariff developments and what they might mean for the US economy and the dollar going forwards, and sticking with the tariff theme, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delves into the copper news and the multiple factors at play when it comes to pricing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(05:54) - Tariff developments by David Kohl, Chief Economist
(13:49) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(18:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks stay put and yields rise as tariffs are back in vogue

Julius Baer — Wed, 09 Jul 2025 08:50:43 +0200

Stock markets remain quiet, shrugging off President Trump's assertive rhetoric on additional tariffs and his stance that no exemptions will be made ahead of the 1st August deadline for reciprocal tariffs. Nevertheless, government bond yields are rising across major markets due to potential inflationary pressures triggered by the tariffs and a broader re-evaluation of risk appetite. To provide insight into these developments, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses why he remains relatively unfazed by the increase in yields, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his outlook for the upcoming Q2 earnings reporting season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:01) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:49) - Q2 Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(14:53) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Trade letters trickling in

Julius Baer — Tue, 08 Jul 2025 08:50:29 +0200

The US sent a flurry of ‘trade letters' to numerous countries yesterday, stating that it will impose steep tariffs from 1 August 2025 unless these countries take steps to open their markets to American products. Meanwhile, US President Trump signed an executive order, delaying the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from this Wednesday to 1 August. The stock market reacted swiftly, with US indices closing lower yesterday, but market sentiment appears to have improved slightly overnight as investors focused on the fact that Trump has left the door open for further trade discussions. With a quiet economic agenda today, investors are likely to remain focused on the trade saga and await further developments. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins our show today to provide an update on the world of crypto.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(06:38) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Renewed tariff threats

Julius Baer — Mon, 07 Jul 2025 08:57:11 +0200

Investors are seeking protection in more defensive areas of the market as US President Donald Trump ratchets up trade tensions. European and US equity futures plunge alongside Asian shares amidst fresh tariff uncertainty ahead of the Wednesday tariff deadline. However, 1 August appears to be the new deadline, allowing certain countries more time for negotiations. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about the optical illusion of recent all-time highs in US equities and the need to hedge US dollar assets, particularly for Swiss franc investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(05:46) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(08:06) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Trump intensifies trade tensions ahead of tariff deadline

Julius Baer — Fri, 04 Jul 2025 09:02:33 +0200

A solid US jobs report sends global stocks higher and US equities to all-time highs. But the devil lies in the detail. A US Federal Reserve rate cut in July is now off the table, pushing US Treasury yields higher and gold lower. What comes next? Investors are already looking to next week when Wednesday’s tariff deadline looms. Trump has intensified trade tensions even ahead of the deadline, saying the administration would start sending out letters to countries from today. Joining us is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar, the moves in the British pound this week, and why gold remains a buy-on-dip.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(06:06) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US-Vietnam trade deal announced

Julius Baer — Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:51:01 +0200

The S&P 500 reached a new high, fuelled by technology stocks. Despite weak US private jobs data, optimism prevailed thanks to a Vietnam trade deal and significant bank dividend increases. However, UK politics sparked fresh concerns, causing the pound and UK domestic equities to decline. Meanwhile, copper prices are surging due to tariff-induced stockpiling in the US – Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides his take.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(06:12) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets shrug off concerns on the upcoming tariff ‘D-day’

Julius Baer — Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:53:39 +0200

While European stocks had a subdued start yesterday, broader US indices managed to kick off the second half of 2025 firmly in the green, shrugging off concerns on the looming tariff ‘decision day’ on 9 July. However, big tech mega caps dragged down the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Talk of the day was the Senate’s passing of the ‘Big, beautiful (tax) bill’ as President Trump calls it, and a flurry of manufacturing activity reports from around the globe, which showed that this part of the economy keeps on facing challenges. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he believes that the US Treasury yield curve is likely to steepen going forward.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:27) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US trade deals back in the limelight

Julius Baer — Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:53:43 +0200

With geopolitics now taking a back seat again, investor attention is moving to US tariffs. Markets are focused on whether the EU and the US can conclude a trade deal in time for the 9 July deadline, while Canadian PM Carney yesterday said that US-Canada trade talks are set to resume after Canada withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies. US equity markets rose yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the crypto market and shares his outlook on digital assets for the second half of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing
(06:28) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Trade progress

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:50:49 +0200

Global equity markets closed the week on a strong note, fuelled by a series of positive developments. Trade progress, delayed trade deadlines, an important change to Trump's ‘One big, beautiful bill’, and NATO's new defence spending target all contributed to the upward momentum, propelling the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Meanwhile, gold is on track for its first monthly decline this year. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why new all-time highs for US equities are a bullish signal and why he expects the US dollar to continue to weaken.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:26) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(04:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(07:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Cheap dollars anybody?

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Jun 2025 08:48:37 +0200

As the US dollar hits a three-and-a-half year low against its major counterparts, global stock markets continue to attract buyers, particularly in Japan, Germany, and the US. With major US equity indices poised to break their previous records set in February, a sense of (rare) geopolitical calm appears to be taking hold, leading to a consolidation in gold prices. Joining us to share his expertise is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar and the surge in palladium prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:04) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
(10:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Technology in the lead again

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Jun 2025 08:57:05 +0200

Nvidia hits new all-time high and NATO members pledge to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP. The EUR/USD currency pair briefly surpasses 1.17 on a report that US president Trump wants to nominate a new Fed chair as early as September. The US Federal Housing Finance Agency is exploring ways to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac consider crypto holdings in mortgage approvals. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes gold is undergoing a short-term mood-driven consolidation. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis, identifies the gold uptrend and USD downtrend as the most pronounced price patterns in the first half of 2025.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(05:59) - Gold update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(10:05) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis
(14:09) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Global markets breathe a collective sigh of relief

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Jun 2025 08:48:47 +0200

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, and equity markets worldwide have been buoyed by positive sentiment. This shift in sentiment has also been evident in commodity markets, where oil prices fell back to pre-escalation levels and gold prices declined accordingly. Meanwhile, in the US, attention is focused on Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Committee, where investors are hoping to gain insight into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy. To discuss the latest developments in fixed income and monetary policy, we are joined this morning by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(06:25) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:49) - Closing remarks: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing

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Markets respond with cheer following ceasefire in Middle East

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 08:52:43 +0200

Oil prices have continued to fall after Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, as the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane appears to have fallen. Asia-Pacific markets are rallying sharply on the news, while European and US stock futures are also strongly higher. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence, who provides an update on the Swiss real estate market now that interest rates in Switzerland have fallen to zero.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing
(07:20) - Swiss real estate market update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence
(12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Markets in wait-and-see mode

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Jun 2025 08:47:06 +0200

Markets are responding calmly this morning following the US airstrikes on Iran at the weekend, with oil prices initially spiking before retreating to previous levels. Global stocks are trading mixed as investors await potential Iranian reprisals and key economic indicators, including flash Purchasing Managers' Indices and US Personal Consumption Expenditure data later in the week. Key events this week include a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde today, the NATO summit, and testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Tuesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, observes that US equity markets are climbing the wall of worry amid the uncertainty in the Middle East, and he notes that the EUR is at a 10-year high against the JPY.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(05:25) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:02) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Geopolitics meet monetary policy

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Jun 2025 08:43:04 +0200

While US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday, the rest of the world did not escapemarket volatility. Global stocks fell as uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential US involvement continued. Meanwhile, central banks made their interest rate announcements: the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate to 0%, whereas the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4.25%. This morning, oil prices have reversed slightly, trading lower; while gold is also down, putting it on track for a weekly loss. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.

(00:00) - Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
(06:26) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)
(10:36) - Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Middle East tensions and US rates in focus

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:59:48 +0200

Markets await clarity on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. The US Federal Reserve holds rates steady, citing inflation and tariff uncertainty. US bank stocks rise on deregulation hopes, while crypto stocks surge after stablecoin legislation passes. The Swiss National Bank will be the first major central bank to lower interest rates to 0% today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides our latest views on the oil market amid the war in the Middle East. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about two interesting markets amid all the uncertainty: Swiss mid-caps and Indian stocks.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(05:17) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(09:30) - Equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
(13:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Escalating Middle East tensions

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 08:42:46 +0200

Donald Trump says he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran, rather than just a ceasefire in the conflict with Israel, and demands “unconditional surrender”. The escalating tensions and another set of weak US macro data triggered a risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and boosting oil prices. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, investors remain cautious amidst heightened volatility in the energy market and growing concerns about a broader crisis in the Middle East. To provide insight into the implications of these events on bond markets, we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show who shares his expectations for the US central bank's actions in the coming months.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(05:39) - Bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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A positive day for equities is sullied by geopolitics

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Jun 2025 08:58:39 +0200

US and European equity markets rallied on Monday, closing their sessions in positive territory. However, after President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran and decided to abandon the G7 summit to return to Washington, futures turned south. With the exception of Japan, most Asian equity markets turned in a nervous performance overnight as markets wait to see what direction the Israel/Iran situation takes next. US data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision will also be closely monitored. On todays’ show, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets where demand is strong and he sees a healthy derivatives market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(06:54) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Market sell-off remains limited despite geopolitical stress

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Jun 2025 08:59:02 +0200

As geopolitical tensions escalate, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade retaliatory blows, direct US involvement has so far been avoided. The sell-off in equities remains relatively contained, while the safe havens of gold, oil and the Swiss franc see inflows. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the US dollar weakness and the recent rebound in oil.

(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
(07:25) - Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
(09:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tensions in the Middle East reach a new high

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 09:05:32 +0200

Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance.

(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
(01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
(05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
(10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)
(14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets, the USD and gold: Our CIO’s latest views

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 09:05:37 +0200

Although the US trade deal with China is ‘done’, according to President Trump, the worst is not yet over for other countries. They can expect to receive a letter from Trump outlining his terms for trade in the coming weeks. Renewed trade tensions and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are dampening investor sentiment. Yesterday, stock markets saw a broad decline, while oil and gold prices rose. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the evolving dynamics in the commodities market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:18) - Market update (macro update, USD, gold): Yves Bonzon, Group CIO
(16:01) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(22:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Trade talks drive stock market gains

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 08:53:08 +0200

US-China trade talks continue to progress positively and may conclude soon, but have still yet to reach an agreement. Optimism among investors has led to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rallying today, with tech stocks in particular leading the charge. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides us with an update on equity markets and offers his outlook for how investors should position themselves for the rest of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing
(06:32) - Equity markets update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
(10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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China/US trade talks set to continue

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 09:00:30 +0200

US representatives including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China’s vice premier and lead trade negotiator He Lifeng in London yesterday. Both sides have temporarily slashed tariffs to allow the talks to progress following President Trump’s phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday. As the talks enter day two, US and Asian stock markets are cautiously optimistic. Indeed, the MSCI China Index has now rallied sufficiently to enter a bull market. Meanwhile, the markets will also be watching US inflation data tomorrow for indications regarding the next move by the Fed at their meeting next week. With Bitcoin rallying to less than 2% shy of the record high, Manual Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the podcast with all the latest news on stablecoins and the opportunities and challenges facing those who invest in them.

(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
(06:16) - Digital assets – stablecoins by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
(11:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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War of words

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Jun 2025 08:47:35 +0200

US equities closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday, although they ended off worst levels. This followed three straight daily gains for the S&P 500, and major indices remain on track for modest weekly gains. Yesterday, big tech was mixed but Tesla notably lagged as Musk and Trump's public war of words escalated. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut rates as expected, but surprised markets with a more hawkish tone, casting doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, discusses what this means for the euro and how to position for today’s US payrolls.

(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
(00:25) - Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
(05:34) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)
(10:02) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Global equities back at an all-time high

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Jun 2025 08:56:28 +0200

The MSCI All-Country World Index is back at a new all-time high. The German government announcement of a EUR 46 billion tax relief package boosted European investor confidence, propelling the German DAX to a new high. US private-sector labour market data revealed weak job growth, triggering a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. In Asian markets, China's services sector showed signs of growth, while Japan's economy was affected by declining inflation-adjusted earnings for the fourth consecutive month. Today, attention turns to the European Central Bank. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about the tectonic shifts in the oil and gas markets and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, discusses what the US equity market recovery and the USD weakness mean for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:30) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
(05:39) - Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
(10:14) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis
(14:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Markets up on inflation, jobs and sentiment – Meta’s deal energises the chip sector

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Jun 2025 09:01:51 +0200

The S&P500 index now is at the brink of entering technical bull market territory, up nearly 20% since its lows after ‘Liberation Day’. Yesterday, equity markets rose, fuelled by a surprise fall of inflation in Europe, good labour market data in the US, a perceived easing of trade tensions and some AI chips-excitement following Meta’s energy deal. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to share his views on where yields go and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, speaks about the point at which yield levels start to trouble equity markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:34) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:18) - Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
(15:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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It’s all about commodities, for a change

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Jun 2025 08:46:38 +0200

With Trump imposing new import tariffs on steel and aluminium, prices of the two metals on the US physical market have soared, lifting shares of domestic steelmakers. However, there is still a glimmer of hope on the trade front, with reports emerging that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to hold talks ‘very soon’. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world have seen some volatility as investors digest the latest manufacturing activity data. Treasury yields, which have been in the spotlight recently, remained stable overnight after strong demand was seen at a 10-year Japanese government bond auction. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who gives us an update on digital assets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
(07:30) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(11:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets mull new tariffs and continuing US/China tensions

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 08:53:35 +0200

US action was somewhat muted on Friday, although indices closed the month of May comfortably higher. President Trump announced that he was doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminium. He also accused China of breaking the Geneva agreement. China has responded today to say that they have not. Markets in Asia are mostly lower this morning on the back of this, and US futures point to a lower open today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the relevance, or not, of that age-old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away’.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
(05:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:52) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

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Who gets to set tariffs?

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 May 2025 08:49:29 +0200

The US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, fueling ongoing recession concerns amidst escalating trade tensions and mixed economic indicators. Technology giant NVIDIA posted strong quarterly results, providing a much-needed boost to market sentiment. US courts are deliberating on the authority to impose tariffs, with the decision pending between President Trump and the Senate. President Trump held his first meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell since taking office, marking a significant encounter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the US-China trade negotiations as "a bit stalled," which is exerting downward pressure on Asian markets today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, notes that the US dollar remained range-bound throughout the week and provides his thoughts on the tariff news.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:04 FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)

10:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Bond markets surprised yesterday, but will the good news last?

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 May 2025 08:52:41 +0200

US stock markets played catch-up yesterday after a long holiday weekend. A boost in consumer confidence in both the US and Germany also contributed to the upbeat market mood, as did reports that the US is nearing the signing of new trade deals, potentially as early as this week. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with South Korea posting the strongest gains, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor stocks as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. Meanwhile, shifts in longer-dated government bond yields remain the dominant theme in fixed income. To shed more light on the latest developments, we are joined today by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.

00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

01:01 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing

07:31 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

12:06 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tariff noise trumps markets again – and the US dollar suffers

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 May 2025 08:49:16 +0200

Trade tensions took centre stage again, as President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until early July. The move sparked a relief rally in European markets, while the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and UK markets. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term yields declined as the Ministry of Finance is apparently considering reducing bond issuance, which would be a potential boost for stocks and the yen. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss his insights on the potential investment case for digital assets and he also provides an update on AI.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
(06:33) - Digital assets and AI update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
(13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Stock market relief as 50% EU tariffs postponed

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 May 2025 08:49:36 +0200

US President Donald Trump says he has agreed to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July as the EU continues to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. European equity futures are higher on the news. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the current US dollar weakness and the steepening Treasury yield curve.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US Treasury yields drive market volatility

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 May 2025 08:42:55 +0200

Yesterday’s trading session saw significant volatility in Treasury yields after the US House of Representatives approved President Trump’s major tax reform bill. This occurred amidst mixed macroeconomic data from the US. European stocks closed lower, while key US indices finished the day mixed around the zero line. Meanwhile, in Asia, one of the top stories overnight was the first phone call between the US and China since their meeting in Geneva. Asian markets were broadly higher. Bitcoin reached new record highs due to a combination of factors. To discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, platinum, and other foreign exchange and precious metals news, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:28 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing

07:43 FX/Metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

11:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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US assets slump as budget deficit concerns resurface

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 May 2025 08:50:16 +0200

US markets began yesterday's trading session on a weak footing, with sentiment deteriorating further as the day progressed. Concerns over a further widening of the US budget deficit, coupled with a disappointing US Treasury auction, led to a rise in yields and credit spreads, which in turn weighed on equity prices. In contrast, European markets defied the trend, with the German DAX index reaching a new record high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into the recently remarkable performance of the industrial metal copper.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

06:37 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research

10:55 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Wall Street halts six-day rally

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 May 2025 09:01:33 +0200

While European equities had another strong day yesterday, US equities took a breather following an impressive rally from their April lows. US Treasury yields near recent highs, along with the fiscal situation in the US, remain concerns for investors and weigh on sentiment and the dollar. A report about a potential attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities supported flows into traditional safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, the yen, and gold. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the recent rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s and about the investment implications of the US fiscal situation. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses what that means for equity investors and why they should think more globally.

00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

00:27 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

05:16 Impact of Moody’s downgrade: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

08:51 The outlook for developed-market equities: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

13:25 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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Momentum marches on as investors shrug off US downgrade

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 May 2025 08:51:44 +0200

US stocks managed to eke out a slim gain yesterday, with the S&P 500 index notching its sixth consecutive winning session, as investors sought to look past the Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating. Meanwhile, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the green after China cut its lending rate, which has fuelled some broad-based up moves across the region. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who provides insights into his expectations for Chineseand Japanese equity markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:52 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Moody’s downgrades the US

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 May 2025 08:44:58 +0200

The Nasdaq surged 7% last week, driven by the US-China trade truce and President Trump's USD 2 trillion Middle East deals. Novo Nordisk's CEO resigned, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to rising deficits. In China, retail sales grew 5.1% year-on-year, despite slowing industrial output. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the short-term US equity market recovery remains intact, even as the USD remains in a bear market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:58 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

08:16 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US equities close to a technical bull market

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 May 2025 08:54:10 +0200

Global equities ended Thursday’s trading session mostly higher, with defensive and defence stocks leading the gains while big tech was mostly lower. This came while Walmart’s CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year - even after the recent decrease in duties on China - and data included softer US producer prices as well as underwhelming retail sales. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what this means for bond markets and why he would cut the allocation to higher-risk segments. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses his expectations for a weaker Swiss franc and highlights his preferred currency pair.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:31 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

06:22 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

10:49 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

15:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Markets pause for breath

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 May 2025 08:50:02 +0200

European markets closed lower on Wednesday after the positive sentiment induced by the weekend’s interim trade deal between China and the US seemed to run of steam. The Dow Jones closed in the red, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day slightly higher, mainly driven by the mega-cap names and a few select beneficiaries of President Trump’s trade deals in Doha. US Treasury prices and gold felt the effect of easing trade tensions, as well as the market revising its expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Asia’s equity markets were lower today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide extra insight into gold’s move lower.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:24 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

05:47 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

09:16 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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(US) technology back in the driving seat – for now

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 May 2025 08:52:04 +0200

US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook.

00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing

06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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US stocks rally after US-China trade detente

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 May 2025 08:59:58 +0200

After the US and China both slashed their reciprocal tariff rates, US markets responded with jubilation yesterday, sparking an impressive rally with the S&P 500 building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by David Meier, Senior Economist, who shares his insights on the impact of recent trade talks, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the outlook for digital assets following the recent recovery in crypto markets.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:38 Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing

06:13 Trade talks progress: Dave Meier, Senior Economist

12:41 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

16:44 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Tariff tensions ease and markets react

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 May 2025 08:45:39 +0200

The United States and China have taken a step towards resolving their trade dispute, with both sides describing their initial talks in Switzerland this weekend as constructive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned substantial progress, lifting equity markets in Asia and boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, safe havens like gold are feeling the pressure. Our guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to discuss where he sees the most upside as good news on the trade landscape keeps on rolling in, at least for now. Tune in to find out how these developments are moving markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:02 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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We have a deal!

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 May 2025 08:53:09 +0200

The US and the UK agreed a new trade deal yesterday, making the UK the first country to reach a deal with the US since US President Trump introduced new tariffs a month ago. Although this boosted global market sentiment, with US and European markets closing higher, UK stocks underperformed. The deal also weighed on safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s rate cut by 25 basis points was seen as a supportive move for the UK economy. Asia-Pacific markets were largely higher overnight, buoyed by China's stronger-than-expected export growth in April and a narrowing import decline, which brings some relief to Beijing ahead of tariff talks with the US this weekend. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:27 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing

07:26 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva

11:45 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Fed says ‘No’ to pre-emptive rate cuts

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 May 2025 09:01:14 +0200

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that with inflation still running above target, the Fed has no intention of cutting rates pre-emptively. He also warned that if tariff levels remain where they are, then a risk is posed to economic growth and inflation. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides more insight into the Fed’s decision making and its market impact on today’s show and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil market, sharing his insights into the latest market events.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:38 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

06:49 Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

10:22 Bond market update post-Fed: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

17:36 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Markets are taking a breather ahead of the Fed meeting

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 May 2025 08:50:29 +0200

It took two attempts, but German conservative leader Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday after an unprecedented defeat on the first attempt got his coalition government off to a wobbly start. Market sentiment took another U-turn yesterday, with global equities falling back for a second day ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve rate decision. News that trade negotiations are going well and that initial US and China trade talks will take place this Saturday did little to improve investors’ mood. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses how markets reacted to the news and provides more details on Beijing’s policy measures as well as the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

00:28 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

06:09 Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong

14:29 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

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US stocks stumble amid FX fluctuations

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 May 2025 08:56:27 +0200

US equities struggled yesterday as the S&P 500 index snapped its nine-day winning streak with a modest rotation into defensive stocks. Meanwhile, the broad US dollar sell-off against Asian currencies is fuelling speculation that regional economies are allowing their currencies to strengthen to gain leverage in US trade negotiations. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, who shares his insights on Japan as well as the recent outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed market equities.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:20 Japan and EM Asia equities by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy Research)

12:04,8 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rebound, USD weakens, Buffett steps down

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 May 2025 08:59:00 +0200

Global equity markets have largely recovered their losses since 2 April, or Liberation Day, with Australia, Mexico and Germany's DAX among the best performers. Warren Buffett will step down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year after 45 years. Brent oil falls below USD 60 a barrel, a four-year low, after OPEC+ announces further supply increases. The Taiwan dollar has jumped 5% against the USD, its biggest intraday gain in 30 years, sparking speculation that Asian countries are seeking to revalue their currencies to win US trade concessions. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that Germany's DAX index is within 2% of its all-time high, reflecting its relative strength against US equities.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:31 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing

06:28 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

10:37 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Microsoft and Meta boost risk-on sentiment

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 May 2025 08:48:33 +0200

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday with the S&P 500 nearing its ‘Liberation Day’ level after the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020. The rally was driven by upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta. This optimism has continued overnight after China said it’s evaluating trade talks with the US, boosting optimism that tariff tensions will come down. And we have Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory on the show today to talk about the strong April performance of the Swiss Real Estate market and the unchanged positive outlook.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:17 Real estate update by Markus Waeber (Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)

11:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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100 days with Trump

Julius Baer — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 08:47:46 +0200

Donald Trump and his policies remain a key focus for investors, particularly today as he reaches his 100th day in office. Yesterday, Trump signed orders aimed at easing the pressure on carmakers, whilst Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that the US has secured a trade deal with an unnamed country, prompting a rise in US shares. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have fallen for a seventh consecutive day, driven by weak economic data that has fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to avoid a recession. Overnight, macroeconomic data from China and Japan was released, with both countries reporting lower-than-expected figures, suggesting early signs of damage from the ongoing trade war. A closer look at individual company reports reveals a mixed picture during this earnings season. To provide further insight into this complex earnings landscape, our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, joins our show today.

00:00 Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

00:38 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing

07:38 Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

11:58 Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

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Trade talks and tech titans: busy times for investors

Julius Baer — Tue, 29 Apr 2025 08:49:33 +0200

The markets have seen some brief respite from volatility, thanks to positive developments in ongoing trade talks and upbeat company reports. However, this week promises to be action-packed, with four of the tech giants - Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon - set to release their earnings reports, which will likely dictate market direction. Joining us on the show is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on the recent surge in digital assets and offers his take on whether this rally has legs.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

07:13 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research

12:01 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks climb on Fed-cut hopes

Julius Baer — Fri, 25 Apr 2025 08:55:36 +0200

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday on US Federal Reserve comments indicating an openness to rate cuts and signs that trade negotiations were progressing. China may exempt some US goods from tariffs and Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:24 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

05:48 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva

09:59 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Optimism returns – but for how long?

Julius Baer — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 08:46:38 +0200

Market sentiment has shifted towards optimism once again, with the US dollar gaining strength as concerns over President Trump's potential interference with the Federal Reserve's independence have eased. A two-day stock market rally has been fuelled by hopes that the US-China trade tensions will not intensify further. Meanwhile, recent data suggests that the economy may be heading towards a stagflationary environment in the coming months. Joining us to share his insights on the volatile gold market is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

06:20 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

10:02 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Relief rally

Julius Baer — Wed, 23 Apr 2025 08:55:57 +0200

Stocks jumped and the dollar edged up as the Trump administration defused some of the tension that had rattled financial markets in recent sessions. President Donald Trump said yesterday that he does not intend to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors that the US-China trade dispute is unsustainable and that a deal will be made. This came as the International Monetary Fund slashed their global growth forecasts, with widespread downgrades after the US tariff announcements. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his views on what to expect from the ECB and the Fed in terms of monetary policy in this environment and what it means for the economy.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:34 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing

06:38 Comments on ECB, US recession risks, Fed: David Kohl, Chief Economist

12:38 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Investors ditch US assets and Fed independence comes under fire

Julius Baer — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 08:53:42 +0200

Market uncertainty has taken hold, with the US dollar hitting 15-month lows, stocks plummeting – including the Nasdaq, which has entered bear market territory – and credit spreads spiking. In contrast, Asian markets remain relatively resilient, while gold and digital assets rally. To make sense of these trends, we're joined by two expert guests: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research. Together, we delve into the latest news across financial markets and explore what's driving investor sentiment.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

05:55 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

09:57 Bitcoin and gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

13:32 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Nvidia down and Jerome Powell delivers cautious speech

Julius Baer — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 09:00:53 +0200

Technology stocks were weak, with Nvidia shares down 7% following the imposition of export restrictions to China and other countries. In a speech in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the potential dilemma of balancing inflation control with economic growth and indicated a cautious monetary approach. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about all things commodities, from the fading US dominance in energy markets to gold reaching new all-time highs. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about the investment implications of the increased likelihood of a US recession.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:03 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:17 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:39,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The tariff tightrope: investors walking a fine line

Julius Baer — Wed, 16 Apr 2025 08:57:01 +0200

The ongoing tariff saga remains the dominant theme, with investors waiting to see if tensions will ease or escalate. This uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer sentiment and investor expectations. Following recent volatility, markets were relatively calm yesterday, with European bourses ending the day in positive territory, while US stocks closed marginally in the red. However, in after-hours trading, Nvidia’s shares plummeted by over 6% after the company faced new restrictions on its exports to China. Both the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilised somewhat. In overnight trading in Asia, most markets fell, despite China releasing robust economic data. One notable exception was gold, which continued its upward trajectory. To provide further insights into the equity markets, particularly banking stocks, we are joined today by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy.

00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

00:24 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing

07:39 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

11:52 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets gain stability amid hints of tariff revisions

Julius Baer — Tue, 15 Apr 2025 08:47:48 +0200

Markets are showing signs of stabilisation as the US administration appears to be reconsidering its tariff policy. This has boosted auto stocks in particular, driven by reports that President Trump may modify the tariff package for auto-related imports from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, US Treasury yields have decreased following their sharpest increase in twenty years last week. Joining us to discuss the latest on digital assets is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.

00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

01:05 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing

07:29 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research

12:52 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing

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Safe havens see record demand amid plunge in US bonds and dollar

Julius Baer — Mon, 14 Apr 2025 09:04:39 +0200

Global financial markets experienced a tumultuous week, with safe-haven assets surging, and the US dollar and Treasury bonds posting sharp declines, raising concerns about the future of US economic dominance and global trade stability. As the escalating trade war with China continues to unfold, investors are bracing for another volatile week, in which the European Central Bank meeting takes place and the corporate earnings season gets underway. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, also joins the show and shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:45 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Risk appetite disappeared on Wall Street

Julius Baer — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 08:44:37 +0200

European markets played catch-up with Wednesday’s US rally yesterday, with nearly all sectors posting significant gains. However, when US markets opened, risk appetite appeared to evaporate on Wall Street, as stocks fell despite subdued inflation data. There was some brief respite for Treasuries but they then resumed their sell-off from earlier in the week, sparking concerns among many about the health of the financial system. Asian markets delivered mixed performance overnight, but gold reached yet another record high. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, offering valuable insights into these markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:49 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets spring back, for now

Julius Baer — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 09:08:25 +0200

Following President Trump’s ‘pause’ announcement yesterday, US And Asian equity indices experienced a relief rally of historic proportions. The punitive tariffs imposed on dozens of countries have now been swapped for a universal 10% rate, but only for 90 days. It remains to be seen whether this rally can be sustained or if it is merely a dead-cat bounce: US futures are pointing to a lower open this afternoon. Gold and oil have not been immune to some puzzling price moves in the past few weeks too, so it was great to have Carsten Menke and Norbert Rücker on the podcast to provide their insights into what might be behind these.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:54 Oil: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

09:01 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tariff-ied markets

Julius Baer — Wed, 09 Apr 2025 08:43:07 +0200

The global trade war intensifies as the Trump Tariffs come into effect. Equities continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, threatening to push the S&P 500 into bear market territory, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Treasuries, once considered the world's ultimate safe haven, remain under pressure as investors appear to be losing confidence in the US. To gain more insight into the bond market's reaction, we spoke with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the implications for investors' positioning in more detail.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets between despair and guarded hope

Julius Baer — Tue, 08 Apr 2025 08:39:01 +0200

Global markets experienced significant volatility yesterday due to ongoing trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump - the VIX index surged to 60 at one point. The S&P 500 closed just 0.2% lower despite threats of additional tariffs. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley stated that a decline in stocks alone won't prompt the Fed to intervene, but an impairment to the flow of credit to businesses would. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded slightly today after a historic 13.2% collapse on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 6% on positive trade news, with the US and Japan potentially negotiating a trade deal. European equity futures are up over 2% in response to the news. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, notes that the upcoming earnings season will be all about companies’ comments on the trade war.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:49 Q1 earnings season preview: Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)

08:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Global stock markets plunge deeper as trade war escalates

Julius Baer — Mon, 07 Apr 2025 09:06:49 +0200

As the emerging trade war takes its toll, causing global stock markets to sell off from Japan to Mexico, investor sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. After US stocks fell steeply on Friday, Asian equities have plummeted today, with tech and banking stocks leading the decline in response to the retaliatory tariffs announced by China. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his reaction to the escalating tariff war with a focus on China.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:17 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:04 Reaction to tariff announcements in Asia: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

19:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Liberation Day fallout

Julius Baer — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 09:06:09 +0200

The fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff war spread across global markets on Thursday, knocking down stocks and sparking a flight to fixed-income havens. US equities and the dollar saw some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will cripple the American economy. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights on the latest developments and how investors should navigate this uncertain environment. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why he sees more room for US dollar weakness and why he thinks gold will continue to perform well.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:10 Reaction to Trump tariff announcements: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)

11:10 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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And the verdict is? Tariffs for all

Julius Baer — Thu, 03 Apr 2025 09:09:30 +0200

Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures’ to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist)

11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets brace for Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans – more turmoil ahead?

Julius Baer — Wed, 02 Apr 2025 08:45:11 +0200

In this episode, we dive into the latest market developments as European government bonds and equities surge on contained eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, US stocks experience a volatile session ahead of the unveiling of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff plans. Joining us is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on why he thinks it's not the right time to increase risk exposure in bond markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

09:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Gold shines brighter as Liberation Day looms

Julius Baer — Tue, 01 Apr 2025 09:02:33 +0200

European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns over the Trump administration's imminent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on energy markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:22 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:15,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The week begins on a risk-off note

Julius Baer — Mon, 31 Mar 2025 08:46:45 +0200

US inflation concerns intensified, with the core PCE rising 2.8% year-on-year, fuelling fears of stagflation. Tariffs remain a significant concern, with the US poised to unveil new measures on Wednesday. The EU is bracing itself for a potential 20% tariff, and Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Asian markets are feeling the strain of tariff uncertainty, with stocks declining, the Japanese yen strengthening, and gold at an all-time high. Also in focus this week: Friday's US jobs report, which may signal a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the S&P 500, gold, and the US dollar amidst a risk-off backdrop in the markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

08:29 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tariffs remain top of mind

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Mar 2025 08:59:00 +0100

Wednesday’s announcement of new tariffs on all non-US-made cars sent shockwaves through the markets, with stock markets worldwide feeling the ripple effects. Carmakers were among the hardest hit, while some investors sought safer havens in more stable sectors, such as consumer packaged goods, where share prices rose. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were largely down, despite news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had met with global CEOs in Beijing and speculation that Trump may cut tariffs on Chinese goods to facilitate a TikTok deal. Against this backdrop, gold reached yet another record high overnight. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, and offers some interesting trade ideas.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:05 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks sell off as tariff angst hits markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Mar 2025 08:44:47 +0100

A three-day period of relative calm on Wall Street came to an end as major tech and automobile companies led a decline in global equity markets yesterday. Concerns about the economic impact of ever more tariff announcements, weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation risks are dampening investor risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla slumped nearly 6%, and the automobile sector was among yesterday’s laggards after Trump announced 25% tariffs on the sector. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of tariffs on copper and why he expects the latest rally will not last.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:29 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Consumer sentiment slumps and copper prices surge – but markets remain calm

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 09:02:23 +0100

Consumer sentiment in the US continues to decline, with some indices flashing warning signs of a potential recession. Despite the weakness in sentiment, hard economic data remains resilient - for now. Meanwhile, one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, is industrial metal copper, whose price has reached an all-time-high in New York. Join us as we discuss the latest developments with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who predicts further volatility on the horizon, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who argues that investors should capitalise on the current US equity bounce to diversify into international markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:09 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:24 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Big tech leads relief rally amid optimism on tariffs and data

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Mar 2025 08:54:39 +0100

US equity markets jumped yesterday on hopes that President Trump may hold back from implementing some of his wide-ranging tariff plans, hinting at a narrower scope of reciprocal levies set to be announced on 2 April. In today’s Asia session, though, it’s a different story, with tech stocks on the back foot, weighing on markets. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on digital assets following the substantial outflows seen in recent weeks.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:51 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:40 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US equities trying to rebound

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Mar 2025 08:48:23 +0100

Central banks adopted a cautious tone on monetary policy, driving gold to a new high last week. The EUR suffered a 'sell the news' reaction following the announcement of Germany's spending plans. President Trump's comments on tariff flexibility provided a boost to the S&P 500 late on Friday. Looking ahead, this week promises to be eventful, with over 50 corporate results from China, and Ukraine peace talks. Investors will be closely watching Friday's US PCE inflation data. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, a sustained rebound in US stocks will require broad-based buying and a shift in behaviour from retail investors - refraining from buying every dip in the market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

08:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Equities halt Fed-fuelled rally as trade fears linger

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Mar 2025 08:55:16 +0100

Equity markets remain fragile as a renewed focus on trade fears derailed a short-lived recovery in risky assets as a busy central bank week draws to a close. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the impact of the latest central bank communications on currency markets, and what he expects for gold going forward.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:47 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:11 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Fed does not scare markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Mar 2025 08:51:47 +0100

The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, while downgrading the growth forecast to 1.7% and increasing inflation expectations to 2.8%. Chairman Powell's comments sparked a positive market reaction, with the Treasury curve steepening and equities rising on hopes of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Turkey's lira plummeted over 10% after the detention of Istanbul's mayor. The EU may exclude the US, the UK, and Turkey from its EUR 150bn defence spending fund if they do not sign security agreements. Today, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that growth concerns are luring safe-haven seekers back into gold. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, says that US equities are no longer the only game in town after two years of unmatched outperformance.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:51 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:49 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Germany gives the green light to major fiscal package

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Mar 2025 08:55:08 +0100

The German parliament voted in favour of a significant fiscal package yesterday, paving the way for increased defence spending and a substantial infrastructure fund, subject to the bill passing through the Bundesrat on Friday. This news was warmly received by investors, helping to drive a solid performance in European markets. In contrast, the US market told a different story, with all three major indices closing lower, largely due to a sell-off in some of the biggest technology stocks and growing investor nervousness ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has already made its move, leaving its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. Joining us to provide further insight into the Fed’s decision is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We are also joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares his thoughts on the shift away from US equities.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:35 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:44 Equity Strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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90% of the S&P 500 sees a rally

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Mar 2025 08:53:45 +0100

It was a good day almost across the board for US stocks yesterday with rallies in all the major indices. The megacaps though did not fare so well and a gauge of the Magnificent 7 fell 1.1%. European markets rallied ahead of Germany’s debt brake vote which is expected to be successful in the Bundestag today. Asia joined in the rally party this morning with China tech stocks leading the charge. Japan’s markets were buoyed by Berkshire Hathaway’s investments yesterday. All this ahead of four central bank meetings this week in the US, Japan, Switzerland and the UK. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to tell us what investors should be watching for when it comes to Bitcoin’s moves.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:26 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Gold shines even brighter amid uncertainty

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Mar 2025 08:56:52 +0100

After gold reached a record high on Friday, breaching USD 3,000 an ounce for the first time, driven by investor anxiety over the economic impact of tariffs and trade wars, US stocks managed to claw back some of last week’s harsh losses, but still ended the week in the red. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective. Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy, provides an update on private equity and how it fares in an environment of increased volatility.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:53 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:24 Private equity update by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea (Head of Private Markets Strategy)

16:57,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The S&P 500 enters correction territory

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 08:53:35 +0100

US trade policy continues to weigh heavily on financial market sentiment, leading to a dismal day for US equities yesterday. The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory, joining the Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000 approached bear market territory. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns, stating that he was not worried about ‘a little bit of volatility over three weeks’. Across the Atlantic,European wine and spirits companies came under pressure after Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on their products, leading to a widespread downturn across the continent. In commodities, gold hit a new high overnight. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who provides an in-depth update on metals and currencies, including a special focus on the Australian dollar.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:47 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Market momentum stalls as shutdown fears rise

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Mar 2025 08:59:56 +0100

US equity indices rose modestly yesterday following relatively subdued inflation data. However, the rebound, that was driven primarily by the performance of the Magnificent Seven, was short-lived, while European markets continued to outpace their US counterparts. As the possibility of a US government shutdown this Saturday looms, investor sentiment remains cautious. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides an update on the shifting dynamics in the oil market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:07 Update from our Group CIO: Yves Bonzon (Group CIO)

12:59 Commodities update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

17:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Trump anxiety deepens

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 08:48:51 +0100

A fresh flurry of trade-policy headlines touched off another volatile trading day on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 Index’s three-week selloff briefly reaching 10% before paring some losses after Trump walked back on more tariff threats. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, will talk about the details of the recent sell-off and what it means for the market outlook. And we have Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research on the show to share his insights on what is happening in the crypto market after the 20% drop in bitcoin.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:26 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

09:18 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

13:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US stock market rout intensifies amid recession fears

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Mar 2025 08:46:01 +0100

US markets plummeted yesterday due to growing fears of a looming recession, with the major US stock indices all falling sharply, amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policies. The sell-off was particularly brutal in the tech sector, while the VIX volatility index surged 19% and bond yields plunged, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. On today’s podcast, we are also joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, with an update on the German Bund market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:18 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets brace for another week of tariff tit-for-tats

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Mar 2025 08:56:26 +0100

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% suffering its worst week since September last year. The Dow Jones fell 2.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.45%. Meanwhile, in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed 0.46% lower on Friday, marking its first losing week in 2025. Nevertheless, Europe’s new plans to increase spending on defence did have a positive effect on the aerospace and defence sectors. Canada has a new Prime Minister in the form of ex Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Although he has not actually assumed the role yet, he is already promising to stand up to President Trump. He might have to stand up to China first: they announced new tariffs (some up to 100%) on some of Canada’s goods over the weekend. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, joins the show today to explain why we should pay attention to the 200-day moving average when examining US equities charts.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:19 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Another blow to artificial intelligence stocks

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Mar 2025 08:48:20 +0100

US equity markets continued to sell-off yesterday, driven by disappointing tech-earnings, Chinese AI innovations, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy – even after he decided to exempt some goods from Mexico and Canada. In contrast, European equities largely defied the trend, with German equities continuing to rally. Joining us today to discuss the energy landscape is Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who discusses the potential implications of a ceasefire deal in Ukraine on energy prices.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

0025 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:33 Geopolitics and energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Whatever it takes and tariff twists – bad for bonds and good for equities

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Mar 2025 08:50:52 +0100

European markets surged following German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's commitment to do 'whatever it takes' to ramp up defence and infrastructure, but this vow comes with a price tag: increased fiscal spending. Consequently, government bond yields soared across the continent. Meanwhile, in the US, markets rebounded after President Donald Trump temporarily lifted his 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican auto imports. Joining us to break down the implications for currencies and metals is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

0025 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:08 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Investors looking to China today

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Mar 2025 08:50:20 +0100

Investors have a lot to digest. With US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China now in force – along with some retaliatory measures from affected countries – US Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted that the US may reconsider some tariffs. Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Commission and Germany have unveiled plans to significantly increase defence spending. In Asia, all eyes are on China's National People's Congress, where the government has set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025. No wonder global equity markets are experiencing volatility this week, and bond markets are no less turbulent. Joining us to shed light on the latest developments in fixed income is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We're also joined by Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, for expert analysis on the National People’s Congress.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:20 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:48 China’s NPC news: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

16:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Trade wars escalate

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Mar 2025 08:55:33 +0100

US equities did not like the news of weak manufacturing data and President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, as well as increased tariffs on Chinese imports. The move prompted swift retaliation from Canada and China, who imposed their own tariffs on US goods. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% and Nvidia dropped nearly 9% but defensive sectors, like healthcare and consumer staples, rose on the day. European equities moved higher yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 1.6% on easing inflation, anticipated monetary easing and the prospect of a large German stimulus package. Chinese stocks are reacting calmly to the tariff news, while export-heavy Japanese stocks are falling. Next up: Donald Trump's speech to Congress (later on Tuesday) and China's National People's Congress meeting (Wednesday). Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and a high-beta play on US equities in the short term.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:14 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Bitcoin resurgent ahead of moment of truth for tariffs

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Mar 2025 08:54:58 +0100

US President Trump's surprise announcement that Bitcoin will be included in a new US strategic reserve saw its value soar over 20% from last week's lows. Meanwhile, investors are now in wait-and-see mode as to whether Trump will push through his planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the extra 10% on China this week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:47 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tariffs and tech weigh on sentiment

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Feb 2025 08:50:14 +0100

Tariffs are back on the table after President Trump confirmed yesterday that the delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on 4 March, while China will face an additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies. While investors are still wondering if this is just a negotiating tactic or not, stock markets were broadly lower yesterday and overnight. Meanwhile, Nvidia had to say goodbye to the exclusive USD 3 trillion market capitalisation club, as its shares plummeted despite a robust earnings report. Today, all eyes are on the upcoming release of the US PCE price index release – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Joining us today is Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, with a deep dive on currencies.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:39 FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)

10:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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European stocks keep on climbing and Nvidia fails to inspire (really)

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Feb 2025 08:44:15 +0100

The much-anticipated earnings report of chipmaker Nvidia, the posterchild of the AI revolution, failed to spark enthusiasm although it did suggest that the AI investment boom remains alive and well. For now, European stocks may be a good place for investors too with benchmark indices scaling fresh highs almost daily. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, shares his insights on how a potential peace agreement in Ukraine could impact the construction and rebuilding industries.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:37 Ukraine reconstruction by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets on edge ahead of Nvidia

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Feb 2025 08:50:33 +0100

US growth concerns and geopolitics keep investors busy ahead of Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings report later today. Germany's incoming chancellor seeks to boost defence spending, while US yields decline amid uncertainty over Trump's policies and weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data. Global markets react, with bonds rallying, the dollar down, and equities slipping, especially tech stocks. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he expects European yields to continue to trend lower. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show to share his expectations for Nvidia’s earnings report after today’s market close.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:13 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:04 European equity markets: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US tech takes a hit as gold continues to shine

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 08:56:30 +0100

US stock markets lost steam yesterday with big tech leading losses and the 10-year US Treasury yield moving back towards the 4.40% level while European bourses put in a mixed performance as investors digested the results of German federal election. Meanwhile the gold price continues to gain ground trading just shy of the USD 3000 mark. On today’s podcast we are also joined by Manuel Villegas Next Generation Research with an update on drivers in the artificial intelligence space.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:53 Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Watch our upcoming Beyond Markets Webcast “Market update & artificial intelligence” live at 10:00 CET on 27.02.2025:

https://ow.ly/Sf6e30sKaH6

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Markets react positively to German elections

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 08:48:11 +0100

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline on Friday, falling 1.7% in its worst session of 2025, after hitting record highs earlier in the week. Concerns about stagflation spooked investors. In Germany, the opposition conservative CDU/CSU won the election with 28.5% of the vote. In a first reaction, German equities and the EUR rose on Monday morning. Berkshire Hathaway reported strong earnings growth and over USD 300 billion in cash available for investment. This week in focus: Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, core PCE (US inflation) on Friday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the S&P 500 has to hold 5,900 in order to continue its upward trend after last week's drop.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:27 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:28 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Chinese shares continue to rally

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Feb 2025 08:56:55 +0100

While the US labour market remains resilient despite a modest increase in initial jobless claims, concerns are growing about a potential stagflation scenario in the US. Meanwhile, in Europe, eurozone consumer sentiment improved slightly in February, albeit from a low base, and UK retail sales beat expectations. In Asia, markets digested news that Japan's inflation rate hit a two-year high of 4%, but Alibaba's robust quarterly earnings boosted Chinese stocks. Joining us today are Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, with a deep dive on currencies and metals, and Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia, with insights on China.

00:00 Introduction by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:25 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:53 Update on China: Cheng Hin Saw (Head of Equities Specialists Asia)

16:41 Closing remarks by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

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The tariff noise continues

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Feb 2025 08:58:14 +0100

US President Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on European imports triggered a sell-off in European markets. The European Stoxx 600 had its worst day of the year, while US markets closed flat. Bonds and currencies also felt the impact of the tariff news, with gold hitting a new all-time high overnight. And we also have Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office on the show to discuss the reasons behind this year's impressive rally in European equities and why he believes the US market remains a structural overweight.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:21 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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‘Tariff Man’ strikes again – but stocks rally to new all-time highs

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Feb 2025 09:03:28 +0100

Hopes for an end to the conflict in Ukraine has provided a significant sentiment boost, driving European and US stocks to new heights. Despite ongoing discussions, announcements, and postponements of new tariffs, markets are increasingly looking beyond the short-term noise. For a deeper analysis of the latest developments, we turn to our experts. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, offers his insights into the recent moves in bond yields, while Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, shares his views on the surge in emerging market stocks and identifies areas with further growth potential.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:23 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:36 Emerging market equities update: Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)

16:23 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Ukraine peace talks boost Europe defence spending

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 09:01:38 +0100

European leaders yesterday called for increased spending to boost the continent's defence capabilities, amid hopes of a potential Ukraine/Russia peace deal. Meanwhile, Asian markets today are being led higher by a surge in Chinese technology stocks as investors express optimism about fresh potential support measures from the Chinese government. On today’s podcast, we are also joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, for a weekly update on digital assets and a look at the drivers behind the recent softening in Bitcoin prices.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:55 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:28 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets pause for breath ahead of US/Russia talks

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Feb 2025 08:59:56 +0100

Friday was a mixed bag for Europe’s and America’s main indices, but they still saw gains on the week. The Munich Security Conference gained more attention than usual as the world awaits a solution for Ukraine. As of Friday it seemed that Ukraine and Europe would be left out of negotiations to end the war, but since then US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that both Ukraine and Europe will be part of any ‘real negotiations’. In Asia, Japan’s GDP has risen a surprising 2.8% year-on-year, well above expectations, and China’s President Xi Jinping has met with Chinese entrepreneurs at a symposium, signalling his support of the private sector. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his perspective on China’s tech rally as well as his assessment on the Swiss franc.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:33 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Europe shines amid US politics

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Feb 2025 08:55:55 +0100

Amid the noise surrounding Donald Trump’s policies and potential tariffs, European equities have been quietly shining, defying expectations with several robust trading sessions. Investors in Europe seem to be shrugging off trade tensions and there are even signs that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be easing. Elsewhere, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made headlines at a joint press conference with Donald Trump, outlining bold plans to significantly increase bilateral trade between India and the US. On the commodities front, oil looks set to snap a three-week losing streak, while gold is on track for its seventh consecutive weekly gain. In this episode, we’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory & Execution Geneva, for a deep dive into currencies and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:31 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A Ukraine peace deal?

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Feb 2025 08:54:33 +0100

US inflation rose 0.5% in January, beating expectations. The market reacted with rising yields but unlike previous months, US equities held up and the USD failed to rally. In Europe, stocks rose slightly, helped by strong earnings from several large companies. European equities are pointing higher again today, with the focus now on the Ukraine peace talks. In Asia, stocks in Hong Kong and Japan gained ground on improved sentiment and lower oil prices, rounding out a significant 24 hours in global financial markets. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, gives a world tour of the energy markets and offers his initial thoughts on the Ukraine news, noting that it comes as no surprise.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:18 What’s interesting in Energy markets: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

12:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Tariff headline fatigue

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:57:56 +0100

Markets are already showing signs of tariff headline fatigue, with US stocks little changed after the latest US tariff announcements. Meanwhile, European equities continue to outperform. French, German, and Swiss markets are all hitting new all-time highs. Traders are now braced for the US inflation report later today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why the Fed is in no hurry to make further interest rate cuts. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show to give us an update on the ongoing earnings season, and to discuss opportunities in Europe and China.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:30 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:27 Earnings Season latest by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Gold shines as Trump weighs in on Gaza and tariffs

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Feb 2025 08:52:25 +0100

US president Donald Trump has said he will call for an end to the Gaza ceasefire unless Hamas releases all Israeli hostages by Saturday. Meanwhile, the US president has signed executive orders to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, boosting safe-haven demand and sending gold to its seventh record high this year alone. Also on today’s podcast, we are also joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who provides an update on artificial intelligence after the dust has settled from the DeepSeek shock.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:57 Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:24 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Market movers: tariffs, inflation and earnings

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Feb 2025 08:41:58 +0100

US stock market futures are slightly up this morning despite President Trump announcing another set of tariffs, this time on all imports of steel and aluminum. The US dollar is slightly up on the news and gold is trading at all-time highs. This week, we will be watching US and global inflation figures, the Federal Reserve Chair's testimony, and a slew of big companies reporting earnings. Our special guest Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, believes that stocks are bound to rally further.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

05:34 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

07:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Amazon outspends its rivals on AI

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Feb 2025 08:57:08 +0100

European equities surged to a new all-time high, driven by robust earnings reports and positive developments regarding a potential peace plan for Ukraine. US equities also gained ground, with the S&P 500 finishing just shy of 1% below its record high. However, Amazon's post-market earnings release tempered the positive mood, as strong results were offset by slower cloud growth and cautious first-quarter guidance. Notably, the company announced plans to invest USD 100 billion in AI infrastructure this year, outspending its rivals. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins the podcast to discuss the high volatility in currency markets, which has been exacerbated by increasing political uncertainty since Trump took office, and he also talks about opportunities in precious metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:14 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rise as inflation fears ease and earnings impress

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Feb 2025 08:58:39 +0100

Join us for a recap of a dramatic trading day, marked by a late-day surge in stocks as inflation concerns eased in the US and earnings reports exceeded expectations. While tech stocks stumbled, rate-sensitive sectors and financials shone in both European and US markets. Meanwhile, gold continued its upward trajectory, reaching yet another intraday record high. In this episode, we're joined by two expert guests: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, who shares his insights on the gold market, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the earnings season so far.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:44 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:16 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Trump makes his mark with radical Gaza plans

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Feb 2025 08:58:33 +0100

Marking the most significant change in US policy towards the Middle East in decades, President Trump has shocked markets by announcing plans for the US to take over the Gaza Strip, resettle Palestinians, and turn it into what he has called the ‘riviera of the Middle East’. Meanwhile, gold notches a fresh record close as tariff concerns remain at the forefront of investors' minds. On today’s podcast, we are also joined by Markus Allenspach, Fixed Income Research, who provides an update on fixed income markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

08:05 Bond market update: Markus Allenspach (Fixed Income Research)

13:11 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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It’s still all about tariffs

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Feb 2025 08:45:31 +0100

The ongoing tariff saga continues to dominate financial markets, as President Trump’s trade policies spark uncertainty and volatility. While Mexico and Canada have temporarily avoided tariffs through an agreement with the US, China has been hit with 10% tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures including its own tariffs, export controls on critical minerals and an antitrust investigation into Google. Meanwhile, in separate news, Trump has signed an executive order paving the way for the creation of a potential sovereign wealth fund that could acquire TikTok. In this episode, we’re also joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research to discuss the latest news from the world of crypto.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:20 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:23 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trump escalates trade war

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Feb 2025 08:44:07 +0100

US President Donald Trump has announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, citing economic and non-economic reasons. The tariffs are set to go into effect on 4 February, unless a last-minute deal is reached. Mexico and Canada promptly announced retaliatory tariffs. This has led to risk-off sentiment in the market, with safe-haven assets in demand, equities lower and volatility rising across asset classes. The USdollar is the big winner and is rising. Chinese equities are outperforming thanks to gains in technology stocks. Looking ahead to this week, investors will be closely watching tariffs, earnings (including UBS, Amazon, and Eli Lilly) and the continued impact of DeepSeek on technology stocks. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that 5900 on the S&P 500 must hold for the medium-term uptrend to continue.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:33 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

European stocks close at all-time high after ECB delivers as expected

Julius Baer — Fri, 31 Jan 2025 08:53:14 +0100

The European Central Bank delivered a 25 basis point rate cut yesterday and their comments left investors and traders alike expecting more cuts to come. The Stoxx 600 Index closed at a new all-time high. A busy day for earnings in both Europe and the US saw results from some of the big names and more news from the Magnificent 7. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple all saw their shares move higher on the day and the major US indices ended the session in positive territory. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins the podcast to talk about the reaction of the euro to the ECB rate cut and provide an overview of precious metals in light of gold reaching a new all-time high.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:17 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The Fed and Big Tech

Julius Baer — Thu, 30 Jan 2025 08:56:22 +0100

Global markets react to central banks’ cautious stance, with the Fed holding rates steady and the Bank of Canada cutting amid trade concerns. Big Tech earnings were mixed, with Microsoft, Meta and Tesla all reporting and AI optimism prevailing. European equities hit all-time highs with ASML jumping while LVMH disappointed. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the global energy markets. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, notes that DeepSeek has led to a broadening of market performance, but its long-term impact remains to be seen.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:55 Energy market update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:36Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The dust is settling after the DeepSeek news

Julius Baer — Wed, 29 Jan 2025 09:05:21 +0100

Stocks rebounded after a rocky start to the week, sparked by concerns over a low-cost artificial intelligence model developed by Chinese startup DeepSeek. However, investors are beginning to see the development as a potential boon for the industry, while OpenAI says it has evidence that DeepSeek has used its model to train its own. The focus today shifts to the Federal Reserve's decision and the upcoming big tech earnings reports. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provide their insights on these key events.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:13 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income

10:56 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:13 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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DeepSeek’s impact on financial markets deepens

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 Jan 2025 09:03:05 +0100

This week’s biggest story has the financial world reeling: Chinese startup DeepSeek’s revolutionary AI model is challenging conventional wisdom about the need for massive AI investment. Companies heavily reliant on AI, including Nvidia, were among the biggest losers. However, the fallout extends far beyond the tech sector, with implications for derivative plays on AI development, such as energy providers. Manuel Villegas joins us to dissect the implications of DeepSeek’s groundbreaking technology, and we also have special guest Markus Waeber on the show today to share his insights on the Swiss property market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:07 Artificial Intelligence latest: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:23 Swiss Real Estate update: Markus Waeber (Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)

15:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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China's AI challenger sends shockwaves

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 Jan 2025 08:52:39 +0100

After US stocks notched their best start to a presidential term since 1985 last week, DeepSeek, China's answer to ChatGPT, is making big waves in the tech sector. The AI startup is gaining significant traction and sending US stock futures sharply lower. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 09:03:53 +0100

Two of this week’s biggest stories collided when US President Donald Trump addressed the World Economic Forum, where he made some big demands. US stock markets rose in late trading yesterday and are on track to end the week higher. European stock markets are also building on the positive momentum seen earlier in the week. Meanwhile in Asia, the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates has caused some market moves. Joining us to break down the latest in FX and metals is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, and we are also joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, for a thorough update on Asian markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:18 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:31 Asia update: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

21:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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European equities on fire

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 Jan 2025 08:58:20 +0100

The Euro Stoxx 600 index reached an all-time high yesterday, as did the German DAX index, led by strong earnings from companies like Siemens Energy and Adidas. In the US, President Trump's USD 100 billion AI infrastructure plan, called Stargate, and its focus on growth rather than protectionism has eased inflation concerns, causing the US yield curve and the US dollar to dip. US equities closer higher, but the CEO of JPMorgan cautioned that asset prices are somewhat inflated. Gold is near its all-time high. In Japan, the latest economic data supports a rate hike tomorrow. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that Stargate constitutes a continuation, rather than an acceleration, of the established structural trend.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:02 Expansion of AI infrastructure: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Big AI infrastructure investments with a chance of tariffs

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 Jan 2025 08:51:33 +0100

Headline risks are back. Stocks extended their gains after Trump announced a major AI infrastructure initiative called Stargate, while vowing to hit the European Union and China with tariffs. Markets were focusing on the positive news, pushing global equities higher. This has also been supported by positive earnings news. Leonardo Pellandini from Equity Strategy discusses the ongoing earnings season in more detail, while Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his view on the world of bonds and how to navigate the credit market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:41 Bond Market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

09:35 Earnings Season update: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

13:10 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trump 2.0 – a new era of volatility

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 Jan 2025 08:47:03 +0100

President Trump has spent his first hours back in the White House tearing up many of Joe Biden’s policiesand issuing a flurry of executive orders on matters including immigration, energy and the cost of living. The US dollar surged on news of potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while oil prices slipped after Trump announced plans to boost US oil and gas production. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on digital assets amid increased volatility in the new Trump 2.0 era.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:24 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Bitcoin surges ahead of Trump’s inauguration

Julius Baer — Mon, 20 Jan 2025 08:41:58 +0100

Bitcoin is trading sharply higher as Donald Trump prepares to take office as the 47th President of the United States, with many anticipating that his presidency will further boost the price of the largest cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, despite US markets being closed today, investors are bracing themselves for a hectic week ahead, marked by the new administration's expected announcement of numerous executive orders, the commencement of the World Economic Forum in Davos, and the intensification of earnings season. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes that stocks still have room to rise, while yields appear poised for a downturn.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:00 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:27 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Strong earnings and dovish Fed speak support markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Jan 2025 08:55:45 +0100

US banks kick off the earnings season with strong beats, while European luxury companies such as Richemont impress with better-than-expected sales. Comments from Fed official Waller on potential rate cuts in 2025 boost investor sentiment, supporting equities and pushing yields lower against a backdrop of robust but slightly softer US economic data. We have Bence Boldvai from our FX & PM Solutions team on the show to talk about the currency market and the particularities of the gold market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:13 FX and metals: Bence Boldvai (FX & PM Advisory)

09:50 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rally on falling inflation and positive earnings reports

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 08:46:51 +0100

Stocks rally and government bond yields drop on positive inflation reports from the US and the UK. Another catalyst for the positive mood across markets is the season's first earnings reports from several Wall Street heavyweights, which all beat estimates and provided positive outlooks. Meanwhile, gold has been quietly gaining ground, despite a strengthening US dollar. We're joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his thoughts on why he believes last year's rally in the yellow metal might resume.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:10 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US small business optimism soars

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 08:56:40 +0100

US small business owners are experiencing their highest level of optimism in over 40 years, fuelled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under Donald Trump. US producer prices rose less than expected in December, providing some relief, although today's consumer price data release will be key. The UK reported lower-than-expected inflation in December, weighing on the pound, while Japan's yen strengthened on hints of impending rate hikes. The US earnings season kicks off today, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and what makes them outperform. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, discusses the US earnings season and what to look out for.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:33 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:25 Earnings Season Preview: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

17:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Higher yields and a stronger dollar drive markets

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 08:46:00 +0100

It was a mixed bag for global equities at the start of the new trading week. European equities stumbled in response to last week's robust US jobs data, while US markets saw a significant shift away from technology stocks and towards energy, healthcare and materials. Market sentiment is being driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will be cautious with regard to cutting interest rates this year, higher global government bond yields and a strengthening US dollar. Meanwhile, Japanese equities faced headwinds overnight amid growing expectations of an imminent rate hike. Joining us to break down the current state of the crypto world is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:50 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Strong US jobs report sparks global market meltdown

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 08:58:48 +0100

Friday’s US jobs report saw global stocks wipe out their 2025 gains while the US dollar jumped to its highest level in over two years. Meanwhile, swap traders are slashing their bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year amid the global bond rout. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest views on markets from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:58 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Technical Analysis update)

09:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Gold shines, USD soars, GBP stumbles

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Jan 2025 08:50:02 +0100

Global economic data showed mixed signals, with German exports and industrial production beating expectations, while UK bond yields rose to a 15-year high. In China, the government suspended purchases of government bonds, sending yields soaring, as the currency is suffering from an interest rate disadvantage versus the USD. Meanwhile, gold prices are showing resilience, rising to a four-week high. Next up is the critical US employment report. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, discusses the massive USD surge and GBP weakness so far this year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:08 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Concerns about inflation set the market tone

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Jan 2025 08:57:39 +0100

December’s Fed Minutes released yesterday revealed that FOMC members believe that upside risks to their inflation outlook have increased and that incoming President Trump’s policies likely will not help matters. Neither US nor European data releases helped stocks yesterday. European markets had a mixed Wednesday with indices up or down in the order of half a percent. US stocks also struggled for direction ahead of today’s market closure for President Jimmy Carter’s funeral. China’s overnight inflation data seemed to confirm that Beijing’s stimulus efforts aren’t reviving demand yet. Bond market prices continued to fall with new record highs being set in longer-dated yields from the US to the UK. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide an update on digital assets, whilst Nicolas Jordan delivers his regular update from the CIO office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:07 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:58 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US Equities sell off and yields jump on inflation scare

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Jan 2025 08:48:40 +0100

While European equity markets rose in yesterday's trading, their US counterparts had a rough day as the latest economic data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month amid inflationary pressures. This pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with traders no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before July. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, tells us why he would tactically take the opportunity to close any duration gap, but would still avoid excessive duration at this stage.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:40 Starting the year with higher bond yields: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

AI surge propels tech stocks higher

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Jan 2025 08:51:06 +0100

A rally in the world’s largest US technology companies lifted stocks globally yesterday amid renewed investor optimism for all things AI, prompting Nvidia to close at an all-time high. Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister Katsunobu Kato issued a fresh warning today against speculative yen selling after the currency fell to its weakest level since July 2024. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on supply and demand drivers in the natural gas market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:02 Natural gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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2025 kicks off with market optimism vs geopolitical jitters

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 Jan 2025 08:54:24 +0100

US equities began 2025 with a brief sell-off followed by a rebound, while Chinese shares are having their worst start to a year since 2016. Microsoft said that it will spend USD 80 billion on data centres this year. This week, investors will be watching economic data releases, including PMI and employment figures, to gauge the global economic outlook. Upcoming events later this month include earnings reports from majorUS banks, the People's Bank of China's interest rate decision, Donald Trump's inauguration, and US Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate decisions at the end of the month. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the S&P 500 needs to regain the psychologically important 6000 level after last month's decline.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:52 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special episode: Future Cities: How can we make buildings better

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 Jan 2025 08:45:00 +0100

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, talks to host Emily Rookwood about the surprising fact that buildings surpass sectors like aviation and transportation in terms of global carbon emissions. Carsten highlights investment opportunities in insulation materials, heating and cooling systems, and smart building technologies, while addressing the challenges of retrofitting existing buildings and the cyclical nature of the real estate market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:45 How can we make buildings better? Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) and Emily Rookwood (Head of Publications)

10:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special episode: Market Outlook 2025

Julius Baer — Tue, 31 Dec 2024 08:45:00 +0100

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the current and expected market environment as the new economic cycle unfolds, and what opportunities this should present going into 2025.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Market Outlook 2025: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research), Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia), Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

11:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special episode: How we manage money: Performance and risk

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Dec 2024 08:45:00 +0100

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Julius Baer’s Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon joins journalist Hannah Wise to take a closer look at Julius Baer's investment strategy. They discuss performance and risk and how this impacts investors. Yves shares how we analyse and assess performance, how to avoid ‘bad’ performance and what ‘healthy’ performance looks like, especially in a volatile market. He also talks about the risks involved with performance, how we mitigate those risks, and how he measures his success as a CIO.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 6th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:54 How we manage money: Yves Bonzon (Group CIO) and Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communications)

12:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Special episode: Carbon credits, markets and trading: What’s it all about

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Dec 2024 08:45:00 +0100

"We are not trying to save the planet, we are first trying to save ourselves".

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Roy Athanasius Ang, Strategy & Business Operations Singapore, talks to Julius Baer's in-house climate and stewardship specialist Jean-Damien Bogner about the origins of carbon credits and their applicability in the climate change scene today.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 6th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:48 Carbon credits, markets and trading: Jean-Damien Bogner (Climate and stewardship specialist) and Roy Athanasius Ang (Strategy & Business Operations Singapore)

10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Special episode: What is 360 Wealth Management and why does it matter?

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Dec 2024 08:45:00 +0100

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation that Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions and member of the Executive Board, and Sonia Goessi, Head of Region Switzerland and Europe and member of the Executive Board had with host Emily Rookwood on Julius Baer’s 360-degree approach to wealth management and why it is important for everyone.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 6th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

01:03 What is 360 Wealth Management and why does it matter? Nicolas de Skowronski (Head of Wealth Management Solutions, Member Executive Board), Sonia Gössi (Head of Region Switzerland and Europe, Member Executive Board), Emily Rookwood (Head of Publications)

09:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Special episode: What is the cost of obesity?

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Dec 2024 08:45:00 +0100

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation one of our Next Generation analysts, Damien Ng, had with host Emily Rookwood about the background and economic significance of obesity drugs.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 6th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 What is the cost of obesity? Damien Ng (Next Generation Research), Emily Rookwood (Head of Publications)

06:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US markets fail to rebound

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Dec 2024 08:45:12 +0100

Markets struggled to recover from hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with equities ending the day lower despite a stronger-than-expected US GDP reading. Investors now turn their attention to European producer prices and the Fed's preferred inflation metric due out today, amid concerns over a potential US government shutdown. And we have Maeve Timoney on the show to talk about the topic of water and potential solutions to tackle water-related challenges.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:42 Water – too little and too much by Maeve Timoney (Next Generation Research)

10:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The Fed sees higher inflation

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 08:49:37 +0100

The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% cut in interest rates, bringing the total cuts since September to 1%. The Fed's economic projections indicate a slower pace of cuts next year, citing a solid labour market and a stalled decline in inflation. Equity markets reacted negatively, with US equities falling sharply. Other asset classes also reacted, with US Treasury yields rising, the USD strengthening, and gold and Bitcoinfalling, although Bitcoin did hold above the USD 100,000 level. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, weighing on the JPY. In what has become an annual tradition, Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, reviews the year in the world of currencies and gold, not in prose but in rhyme.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:39 FX Christmas poem by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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It’s Fed day

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Dec 2024 08:48:25 +0100

Today's main event is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated interest rate decision. Recent US economic data releases have been mixed, but investors are heavily betting on a 25 basis point cut. Meanwhile, German economic data has also been mixed as the country continues to navigate choppy waters. Over in Asia, a potential merger between Japanese car giants Nissan and Honda is making headlines. In commodities, cocoa prices have risen to new record highs, while oil and gold are trading in narrow ranges ahead of the US interest rate announcement. We're joined today by Leonardo Pellandini from our Equity Strategy Research team, who explains why US equities remain in favour.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:56 Why US equities remain in favour: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)

10:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Year-end rally continues: what's driving markets?

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Dec 2024 08:42:38 +0100

In this episode, we explore why US stocks are continuing their upward momentum into year-end, and why some European markets are performing better than others. With major central banks set to announce interest rate policy decisions this week, traders are on high alert. We'll also examine the unrelenting surge in the Bitcoin price and take a closer look at industrial metals. To provide expert insights on the latter, we're joined by our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:25 Industrial Metals: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Bitcoin brawn, a year-end rally and Fed forecast

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 08:53:36 +0100

Bitcoin surged to a new record high today, extending a rapturous rally since Donald Trump's re-election.With value stocks having been beaten down recently, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes a year-end rally remains on the cards. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his insights into last week’s central bank decisions along with an outlook for the Fed’s interest rate path.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:52 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:40 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:46 Central bank meetings by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Two rate cuts – different sizes

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 08:54:53 +0100

Europe was the main focus yesterday with rate cuts from both the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The ECB mulled a 50 basis point cut but delivered 25 bps. The SNB, however, led by its new chief Martin Schlegel, surprised markets, announcing a half a percentage point cut. In the US, a raft of data didn’t convince the markets and they closed lower ahead of the Fed meeting next week where the bet is still on for a 25 bps rate cut. Asian markets were uninspired by the outcome of the Chinese Central Economic Working Conference. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, supplies the details of this meeting as well as sharing his thoughts on adopting an offensive/defensive stance when it comes to the Chinese equity market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:56 China’s Politburo meeting: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US inflation is giving the Fed the green light

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 08:55:46 +0100

US inflation comes in as expected, solidifying interest rate cut hopes ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. Equity markets breathe a sigh of relief, with technology names leading the charge, while the ECB and SNB prepare to announce rate decisions amidst growing growth concern. And we have Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, on the show to talk about the comeback of central bank gold buying and why it was a difficult year for Swiss equities.

00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:23 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:37 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:26 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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US inflation data looms large – equity markets in wait-and-see mode

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Dec 2024 08:44:02 +0100

As investors await the release of November inflation figures in the US later today, markets have edged slightly lower. The upcoming data is expected to provide clarity on the likelihood of a rate cut in the US next week. Meanwhile, central banks are set to take centre stage, with the Bank of Canada announcing its decision today, followed by the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank tomorrow. All three institutions are anticipated to reduce their policy rates. To shed light on the potential implications for the US dollar and gold, we're joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions at our Geneva office.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:48 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:27 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks lifted by China’s policy stimulus signals

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 08:47:58 +0100

Chinese officials’ pledges to provide bolder support for economic growth are fuelling a rally in shares related to Chinese consumption, Chinese real estate, and Asian mining stocks. China beneficiaries in Europe also posted strong gains yesterday. Meanwhile, US equity markets took something of a breather following the recent strong rally, as traders await tomorrow’s key inflation data. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides a detailed update on Bitcoin’s breach of USD 100,000.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:31 Crypto asset update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:51 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Geopolitics meet monetary policy this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Dec 2024 08:44:36 +0100

Global markets are starting the week cautiously due to geopolitical tensions, including the toppling of Syria's leader and the ongoing unrest in South Korea. Despite this, European markets performed well last week, with the CAC 40 and DAX rising. US jobs data was mixed and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached fresh highs. China's inflation slowed, and investors await tangible policies from the government's economic meeting. This week, major central banks, from Australia, Canada, Brazil, the eurozone, and Switzerland, will decide on interest rates. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that despite the strong (US) equity market gains this year inflows into equities are far from euphoric levels.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:05 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:45 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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French turmoil and German stagnation – what it means for the ECB

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Dec 2024 08:56:13 +0100

Global markets are awaiting the US employment report, which could influence the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on 18 December. European stocks rose despite political turmoil in France. Asian markets were mixed, with Chinese stocks rising ahead of a key policy meeting. OPEC+ delayed an increase in oil production to support prices. Bitcoin fell below USD 100,000 and Donald Trump named a prominent venture capitalist as his artificial intelligence and crypto czar. Argentina's central bank cut interest rates and the country's stock market has soared 90% this year. David Kohl, Chief Economist, talks about the political and economic challenges facing the eurozone and what it means for the ECB.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:15 Eurozone outlook: David Kohl (Chief Economist)

16:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks and bitcoin hit record highs as France ousts parliament

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Dec 2024 08:48:38 +0100

A rally in the world's biggest technology companies led global equities higher yesterday as traders digested the latest economic data. US Treasury yields fell, while the euro regained some strength as investors watched the no-confidence vote in France. Bitcoin has crossed the USD 100,000 mark overnight for the first time. And we have Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, on the show ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting to discuss the state of the energy market and his outlook for 2025.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:17 Energy markets: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets in motion: Germany’s new highs and South Korea’s woes

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Dec 2024 08:43:49 +0100

Join us on MovingMarkets, your daily dose of global market insights. In this episode, we explore the latest records broken in Germany and the US, with the DAX index surpassing 20,000 points for the first time and US stocks hitting an all-time high for the 55th time this year. But not all markets are thriving - South Korea's political turmoil has raised concerns. Our expert guests weigh in on the latest developments: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, analyses the situation in France ahead of the no-confidence vote, while Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, shares his expertise on currencies and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:34 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:26 FX and Metals markets: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Resilient US markets versus Europe’s political quagmire

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 08:58:50 +0100

US equities advanced further yesterday, led by the Magnificent Seven stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting fresh record highs. Meanwhile, France’s 10-year yield premium widened to levels not seen since June, as the country’s budget impasse risks plunging France’s government into its second political crisis in six months. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about why exchange-traded funds have been a quiet disruptor of the asset management industry.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:18 Future of Finance: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European stocks end the week, and the month, on a high

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Dec 2024 08:50:34 +0100

It was probably too soon for the S&P 500 to feel the impact of Black Friday, but the index did just fine without it, closing the day, the week, and the month higher. The same could be said for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite. The small cap Russell 2000 saw the biggest monthly gain though – up 10% since Donald Trump won the election. European stocks shrugged off poor inflation data to see the Stoxx 600 also close November 0.96% higher. Europe is now focused on political events in France. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to talk on a range of topics, including why the charts still look good for the S&P 500 as we head into year end.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

01:00 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:23 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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French budget concerns

Julius Baer — Fri, 29 Nov 2024 08:47:07 +0100

Trading volumes were low due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Investors’ focus was on the French budget discussions as French bond yields surpassed those of Greece for the first time on budget concerns. This morning some headlines around a potential further stimulus package in China at a key policy meeting in December are shaping the markets going into the weekend. And we also have Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, on the show. He talks about the US dollar, why he likes precious metals, and the seasonality of the Swiss franc.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:29 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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French stocks and bonds under pressure as investors fear politics

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Nov 2024 08:51:13 +0100

French assets took a hit yesterday, with stocks and bonds underperforming all other major markets. The current coalition government's instability has investors spooked, causing French 10-year government debt to yield the same as its Greek counterparts. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, provide updates on the outlook for gold and Julius Baer's investment strategy.

00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:32 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:09 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:52 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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Markets react as expected to Trump tariff announcements

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Nov 2024 08:57:43 +0100

European markets closed lower yesterday, with auto stocks down 1.7%. The big US equity indices all inched higher, although small caps fell after Monday’s gains. Asia was mixed this morning with Chinese stocks up and Japanese stocks down. Bitcoin is now trading nearer USD 90,000 than 100,000. Geopolitical tensions have eased a touch today after a 2-month ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was initiated in the early hours of this morning. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, assesses the likely growth enhancing/hindering policies of the incoming US administration, whilst Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares the reasoning behind some of his team’s recent sector rating changes.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:30 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:12 Consumer cyclicals up, utilities down: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

12:22 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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US small caps and Trump tariffs make the headlines

Julius Baer — Tue, 26 Nov 2024 08:52:29 +0100

Markets reacted to the nomination of Scott Bessent as the next US Treasury Secretary on Monday, with the dollar pulling back from two-year highs and US Treasury yields falling. US stocks rose, led by small caps which hit an intraday high, while European markets were mixed. A survey showed a drop in German business confidence and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane called for gradual interest rate cuts. Other notable developments include UniCredit's attempted takeover of Banco BPM; a potential deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict; and President-elect Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, says Bitcoin has established itself as a global macro asset this year.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:11 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investor appetite buoyed by resilient US data

Julius Baer — Mon, 25 Nov 2024 08:45:31 +0100

After upbeat data out of the US provided a boost to investor sentiment, US markets extended their rally on Friday. A stock market rotation into small caps saw the Russell 2000 index make outsized gains last week, while safe haven assets continued to attract investors. As the market turns its attention to a data-packed week ahead, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and explains why a year-end rally is still on the table.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:39 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The rotation continues

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Nov 2024 08:59:11 +0100

European equities enjoyed a strong day yesterday, while Wall Street had a moderately positive day, marked by a rotation out of tech stocks and into more cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and retail. Elsewhere, Gary Gensler announced his resignation as Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission as of 20 January 2025. Treasury yields rose across the curve as investors digested mixed economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. In Asia, Japanese stocks led the way following the release of Japan's October CPI and preliminary PMI figures. Commodities also posted gains, with oil and gold prices rising amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is marching towards the USD 100,000 mark. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the world of currencies is David Meier, Senior Economist.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:57 Currencies update - USD, EUR, CHF: David Meier (Senior Economist)

12:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Sometimes good just isn’t good enough

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 08:58:43 +0100

The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s highly anticipated results last night indicates just how high expectations were. The company’s results exceeded analysts’ expectations and it delivered a strong forecast for the current quarter, but the revenue forecast just wasn’t enough for the market and the company’s shares fell 2.5% in extended trading. Asia’s tech heavy markets also sold off somewhat following the results and the growing geopolitical tensions arising from developments in Ukraine. Bitcoin hit another new high. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast for a detailed look at what’s going on in the oil and gas market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:59 Oil and gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets shake off geopolitical tensions

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Nov 2024 08:52:38 +0100

Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine dampened global risk appetite and sent investors scrambling for safe-haven assets yesterday. While European markets ended the day in the red, US equities recovered from earlier losses as the focus turned to Nvidia's earnings report due after the close today. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about the most anticipated earnings report of the season and explains why the path of least resistance for equities is up. And we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show to talk about the divergence between ECB and Fed rate cut expectations.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:17 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:06 What we learned from the earnings season: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Equities turn a corner after a tough week

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Nov 2024 09:04:47 +0100

US stocks yesterday regained some ground after last week's sharp sell-off that reversed the S&P 500’s post-election gains as Wall Street looks ahead to some major market-moving earnings reports and bets for a December Fed rate cut are losing steam. Fabian Wenner, Equities Research, provides an update on the healthcare sector, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, shares with us the latest from the world of digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:53 Update on healthcare sector: Fabian Wenner (Research Analyst)

10:51 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

14:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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USD soars, gold plunges

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:52:01 +0100

The Trump rally came to a halt last week as the S&P 500 fell 2% despite confirmation that the Republicans also won the House of Representatives. The USD strengthened to a one-year high and gold had its worst weekly drop in three years. Trump's cabinet appointments raised concerns and led to a sell-off in pharmaceutical stocks on Friday. Upcoming events this week include the G20 Summit starting on Monday, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, and PMIs on Friday. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, notes that the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend despite dropping last week.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:49 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

09:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A pause in the post-election party?

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 08:50:35 +0100

US equities stumbled yesterday, in contrast with a more positive day for European markets. The shift comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, following a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested the economy was not sending any signals that would necessitate a rush to cut rates. Meanwhile, some ‘Trump trades’ have begun to unwind as investors continue to navigate the post-election landscape. In commodities, both oil and gold are feeling the pinch of a stronger US dollar. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the currency and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:51 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock rally pauses to assess US CPI data

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:06:47 +0100

European bourses closed Wednesday’s session lower. The Nasdaq followed suit in the US, with the Dow and the S&P 500 ekeing out small gains on the day. This followed the release of October US CPI data which came in as expected and added support to the expectation of another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. There was also further US political news last night as the Associated Press announced that the Republicans have secured a majority in the US House of Representatives, which means that the new president will have the power to enact his legislative agenda. With gold down 8% since Mr Trump’s victory, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delivers his assessment of where the precious metal will go now, and Nicolas Jordan joins from the CIO Office to update us on the current expectations of the bank’s investment committee.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:30 Impact of Trump victory on gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:28 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Invnestment Analysis)

13:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities are taking a breather

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Nov 2024 08:54:54 +0100

Following a strong start to the week, markets took a step back yesterday as investors continued to digest the implications of the US election outcome. With key events on the horizon – including a slew of earnings reports and the release of US inflation data later today – traders are cautious about the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Joining us to provide expert analysis on how these developments are shaping their respective markets are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy. They share insights into their latest rating changes in response to the shifting US political landscape.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:58 Fixed income rating changes: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:52 Upgrade cyclicals and financials: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:07 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Bitcoin soars alongside record-high US stocks

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Nov 2024 08:53:28 +0100

Stock markets in Europe and the US started the week on a high note, with all three major US indices hitting new record highs. However, the momentum did not carry over to the Asia-Pacific region, where markets fell across the board in overnight trading. Meanwhile, commodities were lower, with gold and oil also bucking the upward trend. In contrast, Bitcoin has been on a tear, rising nearly 30% since the US presidential election last week. To help make sense of the current crypto market landscape, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:49 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Nvidia hits USD 3.6 trillion milestone, Bitcoin tops USD 81,000

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 08:47:48 +0100

Donald Trump's presidential victory boosted US equities, with gains led by banks, energy and small caps – the S&P 500 had its best week so far this year. Bitcoin crossed USD 81,000 for the first time ever and Nvidia became the first company to surpass USD 3.6 trillion in market value. Meanwhile, China’s economic stimulus disappointed. Key economic data and earnings reports are due this week, including AstraZeneca,Siemens, Alibaba and Tencent. Also watch for news on Trump cabinet picks. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, notes that US equities have more upside, while gold is in a healthy consolidation.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:54 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:21 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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Equities extend post-election rally

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:59:04 +0100

Global equities continued to celebrate the US election results, with European stocks joining the rally despite German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing potential snap elections. US equities hit new record highs yesterday, driven by technology stocks, upbeat earnings reports and another Fed rate cut. Chief Economist David Kohl expects this to be the last one for the year. And we also have Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, on today’s show talking about the US dollar, why he likes sterling, and the fundamentals behind this year's gold rally.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:06 Comments on FOMC Meeting: David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:05 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

15:00 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Trump’s victory sparks US equity rally

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Nov 2024 08:58:08 +0100

With Mr Trump confirmed as the next US President and a Republican sweep priced in as a 94% probability, US equities, especially those likely to benefit from his policy changes, took off yesterday. The rally was echoed by the US dollar and Bitcoin. US Treasuries sold off on expectations that Mr Trump’s fiscal plans and proposal to hike tariffs will boost inflation and erode the Fed’s ability to lower rates. Europe’s equity markets were lower on the day as they digested the US news. Chinese markets have rallied this morning on the back of positive export growth data and the expectation of renewed stimulus. On the agenda for today – central bank meetings in the UK and the US: expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut by both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins the podcast to talk us through what a Trump sweep would mean for various different asset classes.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:27 Cross-asset class implications of US election result: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The Trump effect: stocks, crypto, and rates surge

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Nov 2024 08:53:25 +0100

Join us on MovingMarkets as we break down the market implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump. With his pro-growth policies, including corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and new tariffs, investors are betting on a boost to US stocks, the US dollar, and crypto assets. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation are driving up US Treasury yields. In this episode, we're joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on how a Trump presidency could impact US Treasury markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:29 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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It’s US election day

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 08:49:05 +0100

While it's still anyone's guess who will become the next US President, some currency analysts took the latest polls favouring Kamala Harris to unwind some of their 'Trump trades' by selling the US dollar. US equities saw some volatility yesterday, but safe-haven US Treasuries rallied, suggesting that investors may be getting cautious ahead of the election result. Christian Gattiker, our Head of Research, joins the show today to share his views on the US election and the possible outcomes and market reactions.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:24 US election preview: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)

11:06 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Fasten your seatbelt for a busy week

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Nov 2024 08:50:51 +0100

A busy week ahead with key events including the US presidential election, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and China's National People's Congress meeting to name but a few. The latest Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, despite him winning the state in 2016 and 2020. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Wednesday. Among the 300 major companies reporting earnings are weight-loss company NovoNordisk and luxury group Richemont. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that in the past a Democratic president and a divided Congress have produced the best returns, if history is any guide.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:43 Technical Analysis update – Focus on US election by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:58 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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Mixed results from Big Tech

Julius Baer — Fri, 01 Nov 2024 08:58:25 +0100

Markets had a risk-off day, with global equities, gold and Bitcoin falling. Investors are getting jittery ahead of next week's US elections, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and China's National People's Congress. European stocks slumped after the release of eurozone inflation data. Big Tech earnings disappointed, with Meta and Microsoft shares tumbling. Amazon was higher, but Apple was lower in after-hours trading following its earnings release. China showed signs of recovery and oil prices ticked higher amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the sharp move in GBP, the latest moves in metals and the USD ahead of the US elections.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

08:18 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

15:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Market volatility: earnings misses and economic surprises

Julius Baer — Thu, 31 Oct 2024 08:49:51 +0100

Global stock markets are facing headwinds as several high-profile companies have fallen short of earnings expectations. However, recent economic data releases have painted a more optimistic picture, with Germany's economy unexpectedly posting growth in Q3. In this episode, we're joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on the surge in the price of gold, which has recently reached new heights.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:25 An update on Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Can tech giants meet the high expectations?

Julius Baer — Wed, 30 Oct 2024 08:50:40 +0100

European stock markets struggled yesterday, while US markets closed higher and a strong tech sector pushed the Nasdaq to a new all-time high. Earnings reports from top companies including Meta and Microsoft will be closely watched today as investors navigate high expectations and uncertain market conditions ahead of next week's US elections. An important event that is partly behind the recent rise in US yields, says Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show. He tells us why the robust earnings season is a stock picker's paradise.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:35 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:07 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:09 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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The calm before the storm?

Julius Baer — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 08:54:45 +0100

Markets had a quiet session yesterday, but a flurry of earnings reports and economic data releases are set to breathe new life into trading in the coming days. The US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision are also looming large on the horizon. Meanwhile in Europe, carmakers face significant challenges in maintaining profitability in a rapidly changing landscape. In commodities, oil had its worst day in more than two years yesterday as geopolitical concerns began to fade, but gold hit a new record high this morning. With Bitcoin breaking through the psychologically important USD 70,000 mark, Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research joins the show today to discuss the latest developments in the world of crypto.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:50 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Political turmoil in Japan pushes yen to three-month low

Julius Baer — Mon, 28 Oct 2024 08:45:14 +0100

Japanese PM Ishiba’s gamble to call a snap election backfired yesterday, as Japan’s ruling party lost its majority in a general election amid political scandals and soaring inflation. The Japanese yen is plunging and stocks are surging on the news. As investors turn their attention to a busy, data-packed week ahead, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and shares his outlook for the global equity bull market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:08 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:03 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Popular Trump trades in the currency market

Julius Baer — Fri, 25 Oct 2024 08:48:22 +0200

Positive earnings surprises in the eurozone weren't enough to lift its major equity indices significantly, as economic data disappointed yesterday. Tesla had its best day since 2013 after a positive earnings release. US stock indices are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of some big earnings releases, starting with Amazon after the close today. Newmont Mining plunged as the gold miner struggles to keep costs under control. Mercedes-Benz vows to cut costs after weak results. Japanese national elections will be in focus this Sunday. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, talks about popular Trump trades in the currency market and also why they could disappoint some.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:39 Currencies and metals: Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX Sales Zurich)

09:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Market volatility: earnings concerns and pre-election jitters

Julius Baer — Thu, 24 Oct 2024 08:57:31 +0200

US stock markets experienced a downturn, with all major indices posting significant losses. Consumer discretionary stocks felt the brunt of the decline, led by disappointing performances from Coca-Cola and McDonald's. Meanwhile, the tech sector faced pressure ahead of the highly anticipated earnings report from Tesla, the first set of Q3 results from the ‘Magnificent 7’, which were released after the market close.

Joining us to share their insights are two experts: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro Research and Next Generation, who discusses his current views on commodities, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, who explains why, and which European equities remain a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:39 Commodity update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)

09:28 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:22 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Gold climbs to fresh record high as stocks waver

Julius Baer — Wed, 23 Oct 2024 08:57:06 +0200

US stocks saw their first back-to-back drop in six weeks yesterday as traders weighed the prospects of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold posted another new record high on geopolitical concerns. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his thoughts on the recent steep rise in US Treasury yields. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides an update on the Q3 earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:20 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:35 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US politics heating up

Julius Baer — Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:46:36 +0200

As investors grapple with the implications of an ‘earnings yield inversion’, where the S&P 500 Index yields more than 10-year US Treasuries, US equities took a breather yesterday from last week’s gains. Meanwhile, Asia is seeing its busiest IPO week in more than two years, a key test of market risk appetite. With the US election just two weeks away and US politics increasingly in the headlines, we're joined by Leonardo Pellandini to discuss the impact of the US election on European equities.

00:00 Introduction by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

08:08 Impact of US election on European equities: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

12:28 Closing remarks by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

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Another week, another all-time high

Julius Baer — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 08:50:01 +0200

Markets experienced a wild ride last week, with mixed earnings reports, shifting sentiment on China, and monetary policy moves. Despite volatility, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, while gold hit a new record high. This week, investors will watch global flash PMIs, corporate earnings, and sentiment indicators for direction. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why silver has plenty of upside potential, the path of least resistance for Swiss rates is the one towards zero, and why the year-end rally is still on track.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:55 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:28 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Gold at an all-time high

Julius Baer — Fri, 18 Oct 2024 08:47:27 +0200

US economic data showed a mixed picture and the S&P 500 ended the day flat. Weakness in healthcare insurance names was offset by gains in financials and semiconductors. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, with eurozone stocks rising. The Swiss Market Index also gained, led by Nestle as it unveiled a corporate realignment. China shares are ending a volatile week higher, after the central bank provided more details on the stock buyback program. The yen weakened, while gold surged above USD 2,700 an ounce, up over 30% this year, on its way to its best annual performance since 1979. Tim Gagie, FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also takes up gold in his comments, pondering what investors can consider doing now.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:19 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Earnings season boosts stocks

Julius Baer — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 08:50:21 +0200

US stocks soared on strong earnings reports, with small caps leading the charge. Could this be a sign of a broader market rally? Meanwhile, European markets saw a mixed bag, with luxury stocks feeling the pinch. Our expert guest, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his insights on why a potential correction in the gold price could be a buying opportunity. Tune in for analysis and commentary on the markets that matter.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:44 Gold’s latest rally: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks fall on tech sell-off and tumbling oil prices

Julius Baer — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 08:57:32 +0200

Global equities fell after weak orders and a disappointing guidance from chipmaker ASML dragged down the entire tech sector, wiping USD 420 billion off the sector’s market capitalisation. Energy companies were hit by falling oil prices after the Washington Post reported that Israel has no plans to target Iran’s oil facilities. US banks continued to report solid earnings. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to talk about what to expect from tomorrow’s ECB decision. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show to give us more details on the recent earnings reports.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:47 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:23 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:06 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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US stocks continue to fly high

Julius Baer — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 08:47:50 +0200

US equities rose to new highs yesterday, led by a strong performance from information technology and semiconductor stocks. As the earnings season continues, investors are closely watching corporate reports for signs of growth and momentum. Meanwhile, European governments are making waves with investment and tax plans, while China's stimulus efforts continue to shape the Asian landscape. In this episode, we are joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research to discuss the latest developments in the world of crypto.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:47 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A solid start to the earnings season

Julius Baer — Mon, 14 Oct 2024 08:53:31 +0200

Global equities bounced back on Friday, buoyed by strong earnings reports from leading US banks. The S&P 500 wrapped up the week at a fresh all-time high. Meanwhile, Chinese equities started the week on a mixed note after news on China's fiscal stimulus was light on details. With a plethora of company reports, US retail sales data, and the ECB rate decision on the horizon, this week is shaping up to be particularly eventful. Markus Wachter of our Technical Analysis team explains why equities are poised for a year-end rally and his positive view on gold and silver remains unchanged.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:19 News from the charts by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

09:38 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Digesting US inflation data

Julius Baer — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 08:58:08 +0200

Yesterday’s biggest economic story was the US inflation data for September, which showed a slight rise in prices, leaving investors to wonder whether the Fed will opt for a smaller rate cut – or none at all – at its next meeting in November. Meanwhile in Europe, the French government unveiled its budget plan for next year in an attempt to tackle the country’s large public debt and restore investor confidence. Today marks the official start of the earnings season, which should provide a nice distraction from all the other macroeconomic news. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show to talk about the US dollar, gold and where he sees opportunities in FX at the moment. We’re also joined by Markus Waeber, Head Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence, for an update on the Swiss and German property markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:08 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:41 Switzerland and Germany Real Estate: Markus Waeber (Head Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)

14:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US stocks reach another all-time high, for the 44th time in 2024

Julius Baer — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 08:51:37 +0200

The S&P 500 has reached yet another all-time high, marking its 44th record close this year. As investors await key inflation data, US Treasury yields are rising in tandem with stocks, fueling speculation about a 'no landing' scenario. In this episode, we're joined by two expert guests: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the latest commodity trends, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO office, who discusses the pros and cons of UCITS-compliant hedge fund exposure.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:41 Oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

12:16 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:10 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US stocks get tech boost

Julius Baer — Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:31:32 +0200

Global markets saw divergent trends, with European stocks struggling due to a falling oil price and high China exposure, while US markets saw a broad-based rally driven by positive tech sector news. Bond yields steadied, and investors await the release of the FOMC minutes for insights into the Fed's next move. Chinese stocks continue to pull back from their post-holiday opening highs yesterday. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, tells us what to expect from the upcoming reporting season, while Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why long-term yields remain elevated despite the Fed’s rate cuts.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:42 Earnings season preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:18 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

14:47 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Hong Kong drops on lack of new stimulus

Julius Baer — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:46:53 +0200

US stocks fell due to concerns about the Middle East, a fall in large-cap tech stocks (except Nvidia), and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts following a strong US labour market. Oil prices rose above USD 80 a barrel on Middle East concerns, but then fell back due to lack of new stimulus measures announced by China. The USD strengthened to a 7-week high against major currencies, while gold held steady. Chinese stocks initially surged after a week-long holiday, but gave up some gains as investors were disappointed by the lack of new stimulus measures announced after the Golden Week holiday. This also weighed on Hong Kong shares, which are down sharply today. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, notes that a Democratic sweep is a tail risk for digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:34 Digital assets: Manuel Villages (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:13 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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US jobs data kicks the ball out the park

Julius Baer — Mon, 07 Oct 2024 08:44:42 +0200

At the end of a turbulent week in markets, Friday’s September US jobs report surprised to the upside, helping stocks to close up on the week. US stocks remain close to their all-time highs as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and shares his outlook for the global equity bull market.

00:00 Introduction by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:03 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:32 Closing remarks by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

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Markets cautiously await key US data as Middle East tensions mount

Julius Baer — Fri, 04 Oct 2024 09:06:49 +0200

Ahead of US non-farm payrolls data due out later today, and following the latest developments in the Middle East, European and US stock markets closed lower yesterday. Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea, however, had a positive session as mainland China continued to enjoy the Golden Week holiday. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, provided his weekly update on what to watch in the currency markets, covering the US dollar, the Swiss franc, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:03 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Geopolitics vs central bank easing

Julius Baer — Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:49:51 +0200

Global markets were mixed yesterday as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran offset investor optimism driven by central bank easing. This was also reflected in US and European equities, which were little changed on the day. The USD gained on strong employment figures and safe-haven demand. OpenAI raised USD 6.6 billion in funding, valuing the company at USD 157 billion, and Nvidia shares rose after hours on strong demand for its chips. In Japan, stocks are higher on a weaker JPY following comments from the new prime minister. Sophie Altermatt, Macro Research, talks about China's new stimulus measures and whether they are enough to revive the economy.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:40 Latest developments in China: Sophie Altermatt (Macro & Next Generation Research)

12:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Middle East tensions rule as traders await Israel’s retaliation

Julius Baer — Wed, 02 Oct 2024 08:51:23 +0200

Financial markets have calmed a little after investors seeking safe havens drove stocks and government bond yields lower and gold, oil, the US dollar and the Swiss franc higher. Iran’s attack on Israel has been left unanswered by Israel so far, so markets remain on tenterhooks – they hope for ‘more barking rather than biting’ for now. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his fundamental assessment across asset classes, now that the Federal Reserve has embarked on its rate cutting cycle.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:11 Rate cuts - implications for different assets: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

11:14 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US stock indices reach fresh new highs despite a hawkish Fed

Julius Baer — Tue, 01 Oct 2024 08:53:36 +0200

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones stock indices climbed to fresh new highs yesterday after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he foresees two more rate cuts of 25 basis points this year following fresh data underlining sustained economic growth and robust consumer spending. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks yesterday posted their biggest daily gains in 16 years as Beijing’s latest stimulus package sparked a searing rally. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the global macroeconomic factors driving demand for digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:59 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China's stimulus package ignites growth hopes

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 08:47:16 +0200

China's massive stimulus package has boosted markets, sending the CSI 300 index to a gain of 15.7% last week. This has also lifted export-oriented European equities and industrial metals. Meanwhile, inflation data came in below expectations, and investors await key releases this week, including the US jobs report and eurozone inflation data. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team is also on today’s show and he talks about why he expects further weakness of the US dollar and more upside for Chinese equities and gold.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:17 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

08:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Rallies, rates, and rumours

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:48:09 +0200

Global markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600 hitting all-time highs. China's promise of fiscal stimulus lifts the Hang Seng Index by well over 2% today, its best weekly gain since 2007. ECB rate cut expectations rise after comments from ECB member Isabel Schnabel. Swatch shares jump on speculation that the company may be taken private. The Swiss National Bank cuts its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year and hints at further rate cuts to come. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what the CHF, gold/silver/platinum and the USD are doing and shares his thoughts.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:38 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Optimism window in China

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Sep 2024 08:58:12 +0200

China’s latest stimulus failed to ripple beyond Asian markets on Wednesday with US and European stocks broadly lower as investors pondered central banks’ path of rate cuts and digested housing-market data. Our Head of Research in Hong Kong, Richard Tang, shares his take on the latest policy measures in China and talks about why he thinks Chinese equity markets should continue to do well, while Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, discusses the implications for the commodity sector.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:38 China stimulus measures: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

10:55 Impact of China stimulus on commodities: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China’s stimulus lifts stocks worldwide

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Sep 2024 08:52:14 +0200

The biggest story in the markets remains China’s massive stimulus efforts, which have not only lifted Chinese equities but also had a spillover effect on European and US equities, particularly those that stand to benefit from a Chinese economic recovery. Despite some lacklustre economic indicators – including waning consumer confidence in the US, declining business sentiment in Germany and rising borrowing costs in France – investor optimism has been boosted by Beijing’s moves. In this episode, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who brings us up to speed on the latest developments in the crypto asset market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:01 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Asian markets ride high on China stimulus measures

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Sep 2024 08:57:55 +0200

Chinese authorities this morning unleashed a package of monetary policy stimulus measures and property market support to help revive the country’s struggling economy, which continues to battle with deflationary pressures and is in danger of missing this year's growth target. Meanwhile, US equities built further on last week's gains yesterday, with the S&P 500 index reaching a fresh closing high after data showed that US business activity remained steady in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, takes a look at bond markets after the Fed’s jumbo rate cut last week and provides his key takeaways for bond investors.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:29 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Rate cuts and rally hopes

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Sep 2024 08:41:05 +0200

Equity markets across the world have performed well, supported by a big rate cut in the US and the growing belief that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing. This week, there is more central bank action expected as Australia, Sweden and Switzerland decide upon their policy rates. Our expert guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares insights from the charts, revealing a promising outlook for a year-end rally.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:26 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:51 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets riding the ‘Fed wave’

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 08:38:58 +0200

Stocks across the globe moved higher yesterday following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, with both the Dow and S&P 500 seeing new all-time highs. Meanwhile, other major central banks – including those in England, Norway, Turkey, Japan and China – opted to keep their key rates steady. Joining us on today’s show is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who offers insights on the implications of some of these central bank decisions for currency markets and identifies potential opportunities for investors.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:40 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:51 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The Fed takes bold action: cutting rates from a position of strength

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Sep 2024 08:54:50 +0200

In a surprise move, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5%, kicking off its first easing cycle since the pandemic began. But unlike previous rate cuts, this decision is not a response to economic weakness – instead, it's a proactive bid to prevent future downturns. We break down what this means for markets, including stocks, bonds, gold and oil. Among the guests today are Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, who share their insights on the implications for investors.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:33 Commodities – energy and gold: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:21 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Another quiet session ahead of today's FOMC meeting

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Sep 2024 08:44:05 +0200

It was an up-and-down session for US equities yesterday. Markets reacted positively to stronger-than-expected US economic data before worrying about getting ahead of itself before today’s US central bank meeting. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the unusually high uncertainty ahead of today’s FOMC decision and recommends focusing on the messaging.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:48 Bond markets and Central banks: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

09:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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S&P 500 Equal Weight and gold reach new all-time highs

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Sep 2024 08:47:18 +0200

The US Empire State manufacturing survey showed a jump in sentiment, a welcome sign amid weakness in the manufacturing sector. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, markets are pricing in a 50 basis point cut, leading to a rotation out of tech stocks and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index hitting an all-time high. Microsoft announced a new USD 60 billion share buyback and a 10% dividend increase. Gold hit an all-time high yesterday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied after a successful IPO by Midea Group. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, explains why Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and what this means ahead of US interest rate cuts.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:40 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

13:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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25 or 50 bps? That is the question

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:00:07 +0200

Markets are eagerly anticipating a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve this week. We only have to wait until Wednesday to find out whether they opt for 25 or 50 basis points. Ahead of this, US stock markets rallied. European markets also advanced after the ECB cut rates on Thursday. Asian markets are a little more mixed after disappointing Chinese data and the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on Friday. Markus Wachter joins the show today to provide the technical viewpoint on, amongst other things, precious metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:06 Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

09:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Will the Fed go big? Gold hits new records amid rate cut speculation

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 08:51:22 +0200

Markets are abuzz with speculation that the Federal Reserve may deliver a larger-than-expected 50 basis-point rate cut next week. As a result, yields have tumbled, and gold prices have surged to new record highs. Meanwhile, equity markets continue their winning streak, with the S&P 500 index closing higher for the fourth consecutive day. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, also joins the podcast today and he breaks down the latest developments in currencies and metals markets and shares his insights on the current trading landscape.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:00 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tech rally saves the day, ECB meets today

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Sep 2024 08:55:47 +0200

US inflation unexpectedly rose in August, with core inflation up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year. The data suggests that the Fed will cut rates next week by 25bps rather than 50bps. Markets initially reacted negatively, but US equities later rallied strongly, led by tech stocks. OpenAI is in the news for a new round of funding, valuing the company at USD 150bn. The ECB meets today and is expected to cut rates due to weak demand and low wage growth. Commerzbank rose almost 17% yesterday after UniCredit confirmed reports that it had taken a 9% stake in the company, fuelling takeover speculation. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, suggests that gold investors need to be patient before this year's record moves are repeated.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
07:47 Gold update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
11:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US financials under pressure and tech stocks rising as bond yields fall

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Sep 2024 08:51:18 +0200

Tech stocks led the charge overnight, while financials felt the pinch, as yields fell, and the S&P 500 eked out a gain. But despite the market's mixed signals, all eyes were on the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump - and some believe Harris may have gained ground. Meanwhile, with a packed schedule of central bank meetings on the horizon, we're joined by Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research to share her insights on what to expect from policymakers in the critical weeks ahead.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:33 Central bank expectations/implications: Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

11:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets snap their losing streak

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Sep 2024 08:52:27 +0200

Global stocks rebounded yesterday following the worst week for the S&P 500 since March 2023, as investors await US inflation data for clues on the size of the US Federal Reserve’s coming interest-rate cut. Meanwhile, weakness in Chinese equities is intensifying as a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks hovers near its lowest close since January 2019. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the latest price moves in digital assets and how US politics and macroeconomics are impacting Bitcoin.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:37 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Growth concerns persist, ECB set to cut rates again this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Sep 2024 08:49:23 +0200

The US employment report for August showed a slower than expected increase in jobs, but a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 having its worst week since March 2023, closing at 5408 points. Other asset classes such as Bitcoin and oil also fell sharply. Key events this week include the release of Apple's iPhone 16 on Monday, the Harris-Trump presidential debate on Tuesday and key economic data releases, including US consumer price inflation on Wednesday and an expected ECB rate cut on Thursday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that 5350 is a key support level for the S&P 500.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:58 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Laser focus on US payrolls data

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Sep 2024 08:58:07 +0200

Global equity markets struggled to find interest in the last 24 hours as traders and investors alike digested more US and European data whilst waiting with baited breath for today’s US non-farm payrolls data. The only area that saw appetite was the tech sector, in particular the Magnificent Seven. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides an update on the latest developments in China, as well as reiterating why we see good opportunities in Japanese equities.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:35 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

15:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Much to absorb in this data-heavy week

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 09:05:46 +0200

Investors are grappling with a flood of data this week. Yesterday’s releases from the US revealed a two-year high in the trade deficit, a slowdown in the labour market and a cautious outlook from the Fed’s Beige Book. However, there was some respite as US factory orders rebounded after two lacklustre months. As equities continue to struggle for traction in September, a key segment of the US Treasury yield curve brieflyinverted yesterday. In this episode, we’re joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the oil market. In addition, Ronny Kaufmann from our CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team provides insights into our investment strategy and discusses the recent investment boom in the technology sector.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:30 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:15 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks dive as an eventful September kicks off

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Sep 2024 08:45:00 +0200

September gets off to a rocky start for stocks, with semiconductors plummeting. The S&P 500 index has suffered its worst September opening in years, tumbling over 2% amid renewed worries about overstretched valuations in AI-related stocks and a disappointing manufacturing report. Meanwhile, oil prices have wiped out their entire year-to-date gain, while the Japanese yen surges. In this episode, we're joined by Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research expert, who shares her bullish case for Brazilian stocks and bonds.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:41 Brazilian bond market update by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

09:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A crucial few weeks for crypto assets

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Sep 2024 08:55:43 +0200

European markets were flat after reaching a record high last week, held back by weak economic demand from China. Rolls Royce fell sharply on concerns over a faulty engine part in the Airbus 350. Swiss PMIs surprise to the upside, while manufacturing activity in France and Germany remains sluggish. Volkswagen plans its first plant closure in Germany since it was founded 87 years ago. In Asia, Japan's Topix index rises for a sixth consecutive session, led by financials on higher bond yields. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, notes that the next few weeks will shape the outlook for crypto assets for the rest of the year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:46 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US jobs data to take centre stage

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Sep 2024 09:05:17 +0200

After US Treasuries and the S&P 500 index advanced for a fourth consecutive month in August, investors brace for September, a typically challenging month for markets, ahead of crucial US jobs data due on Friday. A significant shift to the far right in German state elections yesterday sent shockwaves through the European political landscape. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and shares his outlook for the US dollar.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:21 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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More US stocks rose than fell, even as Nvidia dropped

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 Aug 2024 08:52:32 +0200

Nvidia did not meet lofty earnings expectations and its stock fell 6%, while revised Q2 US GDP figures beat expectations at 3%, meaning more stocks rose than fell on the S&P 500. US Treasury yields rose on the better economic data, although Treasuries are on track for a fourth month of gains. In Europe, inflation fell and Germany's DAX rose to near all-time highs. Asian equities are higher, led by China on reports ofincreased support for the ailing housing market, while Tokyo inflation data supports the case for further interest rate increases there. Today's key data will be the core PCE inflation figures - the US Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses whether we have seen the end of the dollar's weakness.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

08:48 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets, the Fed and gold: Our CIO’s latest views

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:59:08 +0200

Markets braced themselves for Nvidia’s Q2 results yesterday with the top three indices all closing lower on the day. Nvidia then delivered results that beat expectations, but apparently not by enough and the stock fell more than 8% in after-hours trading. The impact was felt globally by the rest of the tech universe. In today’s special episode we also hear from our Group CIO, Yves Bonzon, who talks about his views on markets after elevated volatility this month, the Fed, where the question is no longer if they will cut interest rates, but by how much, and gold, which continues to rise to new all-time highs. Norbert Rucker also provides a timely update on the state of the energy markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:09 Market update, the Fed and gold (pre-recorded): Yves Bonzon (Group CIO)

13:58 Energy markets – update on oil and gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

18:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Everyone’s waiting for Nvidia

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:53:27 +0200

Artificial intelligence leader Nvidia reports earnings today and the market is bracing for impact. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence has taken a step up, but still lags behind pre-pandemic levels. In China, another set of disappointing earnings results has sparked concerns over the country’s slowing economy. In today’s episode, we're joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on monetary policy and bonds, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the healthcare sector and obesity drugs.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:16 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:45 Healthcare Stocks: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Market divergence sees Dow surge to record high amid tech sell-off

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:57:01 +0200

US equity benchmarks struggled in trading yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posting losses amid a rotation out of big tech and into small caps. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Equal Weight indices both hit record highs after US Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments on Friday. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his key takeaways from last week’s Jackson Hole summit and outlines his thoughts on the future paths of Fed and ECB policy.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:03 Jackson Hole/Fed outlook: David Kohl (Chief Economist)

13:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Jerome Powell ignites risk assets – next up: Nvidia results

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:55:36 +0200

Risk assets ended the week on a strong note after Jerome Powell made it almost certain that interest rates will be cut next month. This led to a further fall in the USD and gold closing above USD 2500 an ounce for the second week in a row. Oil prices rose on rising tensions in the Middle East, but only a little as investors seem to have become immune to short-term military exchanges in the region. Nvidia is due to report quarterly results after the US close on Wednesday - it could well shape investor sentiment given its bellwether status. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that the technical picture looks good, with the MSCI World, S&P 500 Equal Weight index and US high-yield bonds all at all-time

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:01 Technical Analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Slower to lower?

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Aug 2024 08:46:02 +0200

Markets saw a decent pullback over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 recording its worst daily performance for over two weeks. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield moved back up to 3.85%. These moves reflected investors becoming more sceptical about the chances of rate cuts of 50bps this year, thanks to more positive data and comments from Fed officials yesterday. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why this should be positive for the US dollar and why he likes platinum.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:53 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Anticipating Jackson Hole: stocks surge, yields dip, and gold shines

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Aug 2024 08:44:03 +0200

Stocks continue their upward march as markets gear up for the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium, commencing today. Preliminary payroll revisions, coupled with the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, strongly indicate a potential rate cut in the US in September. This could also spell good news for gold as Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains in today’s podcast – and there are more reasons to be positive on the price of the yellow metal.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:06 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock rally hits a wall on shaky investor sentiment

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Aug 2024 08:55:16 +0200

Global equities have paused in their winning streak, posting losses ahead of revisions to US jobs data due today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his thoughts into the future path of Fed policy. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, outlines his sector preferences when it comes to equities.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:31 Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:44 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The recovery rally continues

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Aug 2024 08:53:26 +0200

European and US equities extended their rebound yesterday, starting the new trading week on a strong footing and maintaining the momentum built last week. Most Asian-Pacific markets followed suit, with Hong Kong and China being notable exceptions. Meanwhile, oil prices saw some relief following reports that Israel had accepted a proposal to resolve disputes hindering a Gaza ceasefire agreement. Joining today’s show is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on what’s happening in the crypto space.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:39 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:57 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Corporate America buys the dip

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Aug 2024 08:41:59 +0200

Equity markets rebounded strongly last week, driven by tame inflation data, stabilising macro data, and solid earnings. Quant funds are expected to rebuild their positions, and corporate America is buying the dip, with record orders for share buybacks. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about why he thinks the recent bounce is an early start to the year-end rally.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:03 Technical Analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

13:00 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Stocks rise as US recession fears abate

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 08:56:47 +0200

Global equities surged, driven by US stocks, as strong retail numbers and encouraging jobless claims alleviated recession fears. US Treasury yields and the dollar also climbed. Meanwhile, gold rose on Middle East tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts. Retail giants Walmart (the world’s largest retailer) and Alibaba (China’s largest retailer) saw their shares jump, with Walmart boosting its sales guidance and Alibaba benefiting from broker upgrades despite mixed earnings. According to Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, major Asian markets look promising, including Japan (where a weaker yen should boost stocks), India (with its structural growth drivers), and China (too cheap to ignore).

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:21 Asia update: Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia)

15:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rise further on tame inflation readings – now it’s all about the Fed

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 08:46:47 +0200

This week's inflation data releases have been favourably received by financial markets. After the UK, the US also released inflation figures that indicate further progress towards disinflation, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts beginning in September. The extent of the first cut – whether it will be 0.25% or even 0.5% – will be determined by incoming data. Also on today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, offers his insights on oil prices and reassures listeners that Europe won't face a gas shortage, even if supplies from Eastern Europe dwindle.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:57 Update on oil and gas by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

12:45 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Cooling US producer prices fuel equity rally

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:50:22 +0200

European equities had a good session despite disappointing sentiment data from Germany while US producer prices rose less than forecast, indicating continued disinflation. This has boosted hopes for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September, sending yields lower and stocks higher. And Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the health of the bond market, why his team upgraded the US high yield segment and what the latest data means for the Fed’s policy path.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:48 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:41 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Geopolitical threat sees oil prices spike

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Aug 2024 09:15:20 +0200

Oil prices have rallied on reports that an Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel has grown even more likely and could be imminent. In the US, stocks closed yesterday’s session flat, maintaining the momentum from late last week as investors braced for key inflation data due this week. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with the latest news from the world of digital assets including what’s driving the moves in Bitcoin and the role of Bitcoin miners.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:47 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US economic data and the JPY in focus this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 08:53:11 +0200

Global equity markets staged a remarkable recovery from the panic at the start of last week, while government bonds and gold acted as effective hedges during the market turmoil. This week, all eyes will be on the US economic reports and whether they will show that the US economy is indeed set for a soft landing and lower inflation. There will be a lot of attention on the JPY after its recent movements were felt inglobal markets. In the US elections, Kamala Harris is leading in three key states according to the latest polls, brightening the outlook for the Democrats. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that after last week's turmoil, investors are likely to be over-pricing short-term risks, which is traditionally a promising sign for equity markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:48 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

12:00 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks stage a comeback

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 08:55:35 +0200

US stocks surged yesterday, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.3% in its strongest session since November 2022. The positive market sentiment was fuelled by a drop in US initial jobless claims to the lowest level since late May, which also led to an upward shift in the yield curve. In Asia, equities rose across the region on the back of encouraging Chinese consumer price data, which pointed to a potential rebound in domestic demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and oil prices have risen this week, while gold has fallen slightly. Joining us today is our Chief Economist, David Kohl, who will help us make sense of the past week’s volatile markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:28 Macro update: David Kohl (Chief Economist)

18:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets consolidate after initial rally - uncertainty remains high

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Aug 2024 08:54:49 +0200

Equity markets rallied after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida talked down the Japanese yen - but the rally faded into the US close as investors realised that more economic challenges may lie ahead. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, explains how our investment strategy is affected by the current bout of volatility across markets and asset classes.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:53 Latest news from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing

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Markets bounce back as dip buyers step in

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Aug 2024 08:58:46 +0200

US stocks surged yesterday, recouping some of the losses from the massive sell-off, and the rally continued overnight with all major Asia-Pacific markets trading in the green. As investor confidence grows globally, demand for safe-haven assets such as Treasuries has decreased, leading to a decline in Treasury prices and a rise in yields. In today’s episode, we're joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy,who provides an update on the fundamental state of the stock markets, including insights into the ongoing earnings season; and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, who delves into the repricing of the bond market and the expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:07 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

12:15 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

16:24 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Asia turns a corner amid global equity turmoil

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Aug 2024 09:01:06 +0200

After the global stock-market rout accelerated yesterday, with losses cascading across tech shares and Japanese equities crashing by the most in over a decade, Japanese stock indices have staged a turnaround and are leading gains in Asia today. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights into the latest equity market developments and how he see things going forward. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets and talks about the prospects of a Trump trade.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:40 Equity market developments: Christian Gattiker (Head of Equity Strategy)

09:22 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

13:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities fall sharply on recession fears

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:54:26 +0200

A weaker-than-expected US jobs report added to concerns that the Federal Reserve has been too slow to cut interest rates. Rate cut expectations increased strongly amid a slowing US job market pulling government bond yields lower, while global equities continue to sell off with the tech-heavy Nasdaq underperforming. The sell-off wiped out more than USD 2 trillion in value in just over three weeks as several megacaps entered bear-market territory. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, guides us through the fundamentals and why he sees attractive entry opportunities in some areas of the market, while Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the implications of the latest sell-off from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:51 Latest equity market developments: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:22 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

12:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Treasuries rally amid global equity sell-off

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 09:00:43 +0200

The past 24 hours have seen an increasingly precarious backdrop for risk markets. A perfect storm of weak US data and disappointing earnings outlooks or results from industry behemoths such as Amazon, Apple and Intel triggered a global sell-off. Safe havens such as US Treasuries rallied, with the policy-sensitive two-year yields touching a 14-month low amid increased bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We have David Kohl, Chief Economist, on the show to take us through this week's central bank decisions and give us more details on what to expect going forward.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:46 Comments on central bank meetings by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:10 Closing remarks by Helen Freer(Investment Writing)

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BoJ raises interest rates, but the Fed is expected to hold off today

Julius Baer — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 09:03:20 +0200

Ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to around 0.25% this morning, whilst also announcing a reduction to its bond buying programme. The Bank of England will announce their rate decision tomorrow and there, the markets are still undecided as to whether they will cut rates or wait another month. Microsoft’s results yesterday showed that its Azure cloud computing service saw a slowdown in quarterly growth, leading to a further fall in big tech stocks in extended trading. Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, explains why although the Fed has room to cuts rates today, it will probably wait until September’s meeting instead. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, explains his recent downgrade of the global communications sector, while also providing an update on the busy earnings season.

Please note that there will be no episode tomorrow due to Switzerland’s National Day.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

08:22 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:21 Communications downgrade and earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:41 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Has the market rotation hit a turning point?

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 08:55:07 +0200

The sell-off in large-cap tech companies seemed to have found a pause yesterday, with a Magnificent 7 ETF rising for the second day in a row. This week’s earnings reports from major US tech firms will be crucial in determining whether they can bounce back from last week’s losses. Meanwhile, in fixed income, companies are scrambling to secure funding ahead of this week’s pivotal central bank meetings. On today’s show, we’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who sheds some light on the recent turbulence in precious metals and the significant carry unwind. We’re also joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the latest developments in the world of crypto.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:00 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets start the bumper week on a strong footing – crypto assets rally on Trump

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Jul 2024 08:41:23 +0200

Equity markets are broadly higher following a string of positive economic data on US growth and inflation at the end of last week. The entire crypto space is also rallying after presidential hopeful Donald Trump said that, if elected, he would make the US the ‘crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower’. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes that the consolidation in tech stocks is healthy from a technical point of view.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:05 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Rotation continues ahead of key US inflation data

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:44:04 +0200

Beyond the dominant theme of investors rotating out of technology and into small-cap stocks, another interesting trend has emerged: a shift from growth stocks to value stocks. Meanwhile, despite a widespread decline in business confidence across the eurozone, some upbeat earnings reports have managed to stand out. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets largely rebounded today, although Taiwan was a notable exception. Joining today’s show is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Portfolio Management Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on a potential carry trade unwind and the key drivers behind precious metals markets this week.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:52 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Market's AI darlings stumble, Japanese yen rallies

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 08:48:14 +0200

Equity investors are having a tough few days as one after another of the darlings of the past 18 months or so report disappointing Q2 earnings or issue profit warnings. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is staging an impressive comeback ahead of next week's Bank of Japan meeting. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, gives us his view on the major industrial metals.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:42 Industrial Metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

12:08 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Earnings season kicks into gear with Tesla and Alphabet disappointing

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Jul 2024 08:59:16 +0200

Luxury companies continue to face cooling demand for their high-end goods in China. And mega-cap tech companies have had a lacklustre start to the earnings season. While equity markets are moving big on earnings reports, bond markets are taking a back seat. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about his expectations for bond markets going forward. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who talks about a positive earnings season so far and where he sees strengths and weaknesses.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:19 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

09:46 Q2 earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

12:27 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rebound as the first two of the Magnificent Seven are about to report earnings

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 08:38:35 +0200

Stocks are broadly higher as most markets take a breather after last week's dismal performance. The second largest digital token, Ethereum, is outperforming Bitcoin on news that several spot ETFs will start trading today. Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research explains what potential investors in these ETFs need to consider.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:21 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

‘Did you try to turn it off and on again?’

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Jul 2024 08:49:40 +0200

There has been no summer lull in the markets so far. After last week's broad-based weakness in equity markets, a massive IT outage on Friday that caused global chaos and US President Joe Biden's announcement that he is dropping out of the race for the White House are keeping markets on their toes. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the implications for broader trends from a technical perspective and why he sees the recent weakness in equity markets as a healthy consolidation, with the larger positive trends remaining intact.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:48 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:08 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Market rotation is the theme of the week

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Jul 2024 08:41:55 +0200

The move away from large cap technology companies towards small cap and more cyclical names remains the big theme in the markets and led to a broad sell-off in US equities yesterday. Meanwhile in Europe, the European Central Bank decided to leave its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.25% at its meeting yesterday. Across Asia, equities have largely struggled today, with the Hang Seng Index leading regional declines. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins the show today to share his thoughts on the recent moves in gold, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:48 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:14 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Market darlings take a beating as political markets are back in focus

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Jul 2024 08:56:53 +0200

Stocks, especially those in the IT and communication services sectors, came under heavy pressure yesterday as investors were forced to price in new political developments – political markets are back in focus. Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office talks about how our investment strategy is dealing with the new situation, and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, remains cautious on oil.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:03 Energy markets: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:35 Latest news from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The rotation in equities continues and gold reaches new highs

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Jul 2024 09:01:00 +0200

Rotation is the key word in financial markets at the moment, as leadership of the US market has shifted very quickly from the Magnificent 7 to the broader market. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, talks about how investors should position themselves in this environment and sheds some light on the ongoing earnings season. And we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show. He talks about the recent move lower in bond yields as well as expectations for tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:44 Bonds update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:12 Q2 earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:24 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US stocks cheer Mr Trump as Europe gets China blues

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Jul 2024 08:55:42 +0200

US stock markets are broadly higher as the odds increase that former President Donald Trump will return to the Oval Office in 2025. Meanwhile, European equities are suffering from a string of underwhelming economic data out of China. And Bitcoin is on the rise after Germany sold all of its confiscated tokens last week. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research talks about this and also links the performance of the largest digital asset to the US elections.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:40 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets digest data, earnings and an assassination attempt

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 Jul 2024 08:53:42 +0200

European and US markets closed the week higher with some stock rotation in evidence after Thursday’s US CPI data fuelled optimism of a first Fed rate cut in September. The big banks started to announce Q2 earnings, and more than 40 S&P 500 companies are due to report second-quarter earnings this week. Then came the shock attempt on Donald Trump’s life at a rally in Pennsylvania. He escaped serious injuryand as he plans the next stages of his presidential campaign, pollsters currently see a higher likelihood of him winning the race. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, gives his insights into where the markets might go from here.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

08:00 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Sticky inflation becoming unstuck

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Jul 2024 08:53:27 +0200

Bond markets rallied as signs of US disinflation reinforced bets the Fed will cut rates in September. This led to heavy profit-taking in the big tech space and a strong rotation into previously unloved stocks, which pulled the S&P 500 lower, while small caps jumped higher. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins the show. He talks about the strength in gold, the weak US dollar and what’s behind the recent rise of the yen.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:38 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva

10:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets buoyant ahead of CPI data

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44:45 +0200

Big tech and chip companies were the main drivers of stock markets yesterday ahead of the all-important US June CPI data due out today. Even the CAC 40 closed the day in positive territory, despite France’s uncertain political future. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the risks to the economy are more balanced between inflation and recession, and that the Fed does not need inflation to fall below 2% before cutting rates. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, updates listeners on his expectations for the oil/energy markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:11 Oil/Energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
10:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Renewed Fed rate cut hopes fuel US equity market gains

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Jul 2024 08:56:19 +0200

US stocks inched higher yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new record highs following Fed Chair Powell’s encouraging remarks that the US is no longer an overheated economy. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides an update on the bond market ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting next week. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy gives a preview of what to expect from the Q2 earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:20 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:25 Q2 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US and Japanese markets reach new peaks

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Jul 2024 08:47:47 +0200

While European markets remain preoccupied with the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty in France, investors in the US are shifting their focus to the upcoming earnings season, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 has also hit a new record high as the country sees a significant increase in machine tool orders. Meanwhile, the Chinese market is struggling with uncertainty after the People’s Bank of China announced new liquidity operations yesterday. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins us today to discuss Bitcoin’s recent price drop and why investors should brace themselves for more volatility ahead.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:57 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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No clear path after the French elections

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Jul 2024 08:56:25 +0200

The bond market is starting to think about what another Trump presidency could mean for yields. Despite slowing inflation and weak growth figures in the US and Europe, equities are thriving – the S&P 500 and Japan's Topix have just hit new all-time highs. On Friday, US Treasury yields fell and gold rose after a downward revision to US employment data. The Q2 earnings season kicks off later this week, with analysts expecting a 9% year-on-year rise in EPS, the strongest since Q1 2022. Kaspar Köchli, Economist, talks about the French election and the likely impact on French assets of the uncertainty following Sunday's vote. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, stresses that gold is outperforming every other major asset class except US large-cap equities.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:18 French election result by Kaspar Köchli (Economist)

11:34 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

14:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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French equities outperform ahead of weekend elections

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Jul 2024 08:48:42 +0200

With the US celebrating Independence Day yesterday, investors turned their attention to Europe where French equities continue to outperform ahead of the second round of the country's parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, UK voters have handed power to the Labour Party. Dave Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, puts the election result into context and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about currencies and metals and prepares you for the weekend with his now traditional end-of-week joke.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:59 UK election result by David Meier (Investment Research Analyst)

10:21 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

15:10 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets shrug off weakness in US economy

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Jul 2024 08:51:16 +0200

A string of weaker macroeconomic data out of the US yesterday was unable to shake investor sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices touching fresh all-time highs, propelled by a rally in mega-cap tech stocks. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides an update from our CIO office. Dr Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins us to talk about longevity and explains why we should be paying attention to extending our healthspan.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:00 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:58 Longevity by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)

13:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Powell’s dovish comments push US equities to another record high

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Jul 2024 08:43:51 +0200

Markets reacted positively to Fed Chair Powell's upbeat comments on disinflation, sending US equities to another record high and bond yields lower. European equities struggled however, amid prevailing political concerns, despite inflationary pressures easing in June. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses what political risks in Europe mean for bond investors and why he believes there is value in peripheral European bonds.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:08 European bonds in the current climate by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:19 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Crypto is in the Trump camp

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 08:46:12 +0200

Germany's Ifo Institute predicts that inflation could fall to 2% by August. European equities rose after the first round of parliamentary elections in France suggested that no party would win an outright majority in the second round. The Nasdaq hit an all-time high, but stocks were held back by a jump in Treasury yields. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 is back above 40,000. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research notes that crypto has become politicised in the US, with recent gains coming on the back of Donald Trump's increased chances of becoming the next US president following his debate with President Biden.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:44 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets celebrate the first half of the year

Julius Baer — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 09:11:48 +0200

Most of the key US and European indices closed the first half of the year in positive territory, with the Nasdaq Composite turning in 18.1% in H1. In Asia, the Taiwan Weighted Index made a 28% gain. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, points out what he thinks investors should take away from the first half of the year. Europe’s focus is now firmly on the second round of the French elections – these will take place on Sunday and all parties other than the National Rally will be out to prevent them from achieving a majority.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:45 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
09:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Politics and inflation remain in focus

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Jun 2024 08:52:21 +0200

A batch of underwhelming data out of the US keeps rate cut expectations for the Fed alive. While that helped US yields to trade lower in yesterday’s session, European yields remained steady for the most part ahead of this Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections in France. The political uncertainty continued to weigh on equities in Europe, while their US counterparts ended the day higher, with the Magnificent 7 cohort closing at a new record. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what is going on in FX markets and explains why it might be a good idea to protect your gains in gold.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:51 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Asian tech stocks hit by US chipmaker woes

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Jun 2024 08:49:11 +0200

Major US stock indices eked out only minor gains yesterday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE), due tomorrow. Shares in chipmaker Micron Technology slumped in afterhours trading yesterday, with reverberations being felt across Asia-Pacific markets today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the drivers behind the recent rebound in oil prices.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:09 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US Treasury auctions calm nervous investors

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 08:45:44 +0200

While it was only a few consumer services and information technology stocks that drove the gains in the US equity markets yesterday, the good news came from a successful auction of 2-year Treasury notes by the US Treasury Department. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains why the results of these US Treasury auctions have become so important for investors.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:01 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Tune in to the Market Outlook Mid-year 2024 webcast

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Jun 2024 08:56:25 +0200

European equity markets rose on reports that China and the European Union will sit down to discuss the EU's plan to impose additional tariffs on electric vehicle imports, despite uncertainty over the French election. 70% of the S&P 500 constituents were higher, but the index was lower on weakness in Nvidia. Shein is in the news for a possible IPO. Asian stocks are higher, but mainland China is lower. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communications, previews this week's Market Outlook Mid-Year 2024 webcast on Thursday, details of which are available on the Julius Baer LinkedIn page. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, highlights the importance of being able to tolerate short-term drawdowns amid weakness in digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
07:19 Market Outlook Mid Year 2024 Webcast, on 27th June: Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)
10:39 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
14:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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America innovates, Europe regulates - Tech companies delay AI features in Europe

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 08:50:26 +0200

After markets were rattled by weaker-than-expected economic data last Friday, investors are facing rising political risks this week, with the first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump scheduled for Thursday and the French election on Sunday. Recent leading indicators point to a slowdown in economic momentum in Europe, weighing on equities, while US technology companies are having a tough time with European regulators. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the technical setup for equities remains positive, why interest rates could trend lower in the summer months and why US equities remain his favourite region.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
07:08 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
11:10 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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European equities outperform as investor sentiment improves

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Jun 2024 08:46:54 +0200

European equities were higher as investor confidence returned following a successful auction of French government debt. In the US, however, mega-cap tech stocks dragged the broader market lower, pausing the impressive rally seen in recent weeks. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses why he believes Swiss interest rates will continue to fall and that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut until September this year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:35 Comments on SNB and BoE meetings by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
13:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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European markets edge lower in search of fresh stimulus

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Jun 2024 08:53:46 +0200

Stock markets in Europe took a breather yesterday as traders looked for fresh catalysts to extend the latest tech-driven gains. After government bond yields across the eurozone edged higher, we take a look at the line-up of today’s central bank meetings and expectations for their policy decisions. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on supply and demand in the copper market, and the outlook for the metal.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:51 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
07:16 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
11:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets upbeat as they await central bank decisions this week

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Jun 2024 08:57:40 +0200

Recent macroeconomic data from the US may encourage the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, although officials have stressed that inflation needs to fall further before any action is taken. Meanwhile, in company-specific news, Nvidia’s share price soared, making it the most valuable listed company in the world. In Asia, Japan released a mixed batch of economic data, while minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting revealed that officials discussed the possibility of accelerating the pace of policy normalisation. With several central bank meetings scheduled this week, Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us today to share his insights on what to expect.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:46 Central banks and bond markets by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The S&P 500’s 30th all-time high this year

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Jun 2024 08:52:37 +0200

French assets stabilised after last week's rout and the S&P 500 hit its 30th all-time high this year, while Indian equities also hit new highs after their election blues. Nvidia's rally this year is making life difficult for technology sector ETFs. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, but a rate hike was discussed. Bitcoin is at its lowest level in a month, but remains well within its trading range since March. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the Swiss franc, which is caught between a likely rate cut and safe-haven demand amid French election uncertainty.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:22 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A tale of two continents

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Jun 2024 08:49:42 +0200

European markets were weighed down last week by heightened political uncertainty emanating from France, while US markets enjoyed a solid week on the back of encouraging inflation data. The divergence was clearly visible in relative equity performance, with the weekly gap between the S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the French CAC 40 (-6.2%) the widest since early March 2022, just after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Investors looking for safe-haven assets pushed gold higher and yields lower. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he would still wait before turning bearish on European equities, why yields could very well fall further and why he still likes large-cap US growth stocks.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:07 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Football fans look to Germany, investors to France

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Jun 2024 09:00:23 +0200

While most of Europe looks to Germany for football, investors are turning their attention to France, where President Macron’s decision to hold a parliamentary vote has caused quite a stir – French equities and bonds are both down on the week. Meanwhile, in the US, this week’s data pointed to a cooling of inflation and the labour market, making a strong case for interest rate cuts. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, joins the show today to share his insights into the latest US macroeconomic data and what it means for our interest rate expectations this year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:36 Comments on latest US data and FOMC meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US CPI and Fed double bill leads US stocks to fresh highs

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Jun 2024 08:53:15 +0200

After US consumer prices for May rose by slightly less than expected, the US Federal Reserve yesterday left its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, but dialled back its expectations for interest-rate cuts, now pencilling in just one for the rest of the year. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on the gold market and central bank purchases. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides a rundown of the latest news from the CIO Office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:16 Gold/PBOC halt in purchases: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:17 Latest news from the CIO Office byLatest news from the CIO Office byNicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:40 Closing remarks by CIO Office by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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French legislative elections and US interest rate decision day

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 08:58:47 +0200

President Emanuel Macron's call for legislative elections sends shockwaves through European financial markets. It is the big day for US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Apple hits a new all-time high. China remains in a deflationary environment, while Japan's producer prices surprise to the upside. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, remains positive on peripheral European government bonds despite political uncertainty in France. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses the news that China's central bank has stopped buying gold (for now).

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:25 European politics/The Fed by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

13:32 FX and Metals update by Tim Gagie (Head FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

18:22 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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European stocks fall on politics while US indices close at record highs

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Jun 2024 08:41:34 +0200

US stocks rose to new record highs yesterday as two of the major tech mega-caps led the way for the major indices. Meanwhile, Europe suffered a hangover of fresh political uncertainty after right-wing parties emerged victorious in the European Parliament elections over the weekend. Next Generation analyst Manuel Villegas shares his insights on the latest regulatory twists and turns in the crypto markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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July rate cut off the table after strong US jobs report

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Jun 2024 08:50:38 +0200

US jobs growth surged in May and wages accelerated, prompting traders to push back the expected timing of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US Treasuries sold off, pushing yields higher on Friday. And while equity markets in Europe ended the day lower, US stocks initially fell but largely pared losses to end the day just slightly in the red. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the technical setup for the S&P 500 and Dax indices, and why he expects US Treasury yields to fall.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

08:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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ECB cuts rates and we like German equities

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Jun 2024 08:43:55 +0200

The ECB cut its deposit rate yesterday, but did not commit to further rate cuts. Eurozone banks rallied the most on the prospect of fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Microsoft and Nvidia may face antitrust investigation in the US. Two giant banks, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui, are to start selling their strategic stakes in Toyota Motor worth around USD 8.5 billion, illustrating that corporate reform in Japan is for real. India's financial markets are returning to calm after the surprise outcome of the national elections, while European parliamentary elections are in focus this weekend. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, explains why we like German equities.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:26 German equities by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)

09:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Artificial Intelligence continues its ascent

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Jun 2024 08:47:32 +0200

Nvidia became the second biggest company in the world yesterday as its market value exceeded USD 3 trillion, whilst ASML pushed LVMH aside to take over the number 2 spot in European markets. Other technology stocks also performed well – pushing their indices to new all-time highs. Markets now await more the discussion than the decision when it comes to the ECB later today: whilst the rate cut is firmly priced in, what Christine Lagarde says afterwards will be the main focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain his ‘Cautious’ outlook for the oil markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:18 Update on oil / OPEC meeting by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

08:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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India votes to surprise

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Jun 2024 09:03:13 +0200

The Swiss equity market continues to shine among its European peers, with inflation well below the Swiss National Bank’s upper target and the stock market outperforming. In Asia, all eyes are on the Indian elections, where Prime Minister Modi’s party failed to win an outright majority but he looks set for a third term in office. Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, shares his views on the Indian election and reviews the Chinese and Japanese markets. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research discusses our expectations for tomorrow’s European Central Bank rate decision.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:55 India election results & Asia calls by Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia)

14:36 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

19:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Weaker US macro data dampens investor sentiment

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Jun 2024 08:42:22 +0200

A flurry of weaker US economic data, which included a slowdown in factory output and a surprise contraction in the construction industry, saw the US dollar index drop to a new two-month low. The data also saw US equities post lacklustre, flat returns yesterday, while the US bond market rallied and US Treasury bond yields fell. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets, and takes a closer look at the approval of Ethereum ETFs and the topic of regulation.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

08:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities set to rally further as risk-on prevails

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 08:37:49 +0200

Major stock market indices are building on May's strong performance as we enter the meteorological summer here in Europe. In Asia, Indian markets are leading the way as exit polls show a landslide victory for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes there is more upside ahead for both equities and gold.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:29 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Wall Street diverges on bad tech news

Julius Baer — Fri, 31 May 2024 08:51:52 +0200

Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected US GDP data helped to boost rate cut expectations by the Fed and bring yields down from their highs. And while equity markets in Europe and Asia gained, tech stocks in the US came under selling pressure. Disappointing earnings data and US officials reviewing licenses to chipmakers for shipments to the Middle East pulled the sector down. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the importance of central bank meetings in the coming weeks, recent developments in precious metals and why he thinks the recent CHF strength will only be temporary.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:59 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva

09:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Risk-on mood sours amid rising bond yields

Julius Baer — Thu, 30 May 2024 08:57:58 +0200

Markets came under pressure yesterday after a USD 44bn Treasury auction saw weak investor demand, following two lacklustre auctions on Tuesday. The broad risk aversion gripping markets comes as rising bond yields are putting an increasing strain on risk assets. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, comments on the latest drivers in the oil market and shares his outlook for oil prices.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:25 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Yields jump on Fed speak and weak US Treasury auction results

Julius Baer — Wed, 29 May 2024 08:44:37 +0200

While equities were broadly flat on Tuesday, US Treasury yields jumped on weak 2- and 5-year auctions and comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said policymakers had not completely ruled out further rate hikes - even if the current policy stance was restrictive. Fixed Income strategist, Dario Messi, explains what's behind the more cautious tone from Fed speakers and what it means for investors.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:02 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

09:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US-listed Ethereum ETFs on the horizon

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 May 2024 08:54:19 +0200

Germany's Ifo business climate survey shows an improved outlook, while European equities see renewed inflows. Elon Musk's AI startup xAI raises USD 6 billion in its second round of funding. Japan's inflation picks up, supporting the case for higher interest rates. Shanghai makes it easier for home buyers. And the US moves to T+1 stock settlement. Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research wonders if it will be ‘sell the news’ once Ethereum ETFs will be trading on US exchanges.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:24 Digital Assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

12:12 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Asia-Pacific markets open the week strongly

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 May 2024 08:57:24 +0200

Fresh data from China showed that industrial profits rose, boosting Asia-Pacific markets today. Meanwhile, Ethereum, the second largest digital token, rose as the US SEC signed off on a proposal by major US exchanges to list Ether-linked products. Gold edged higher this morning, while oil prices are in a holding pattern ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week. Today’s public holidays in the US and UK are expected to keep trading relatively thin. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us today to discuss what the charts say about where equities and bonds might go from here.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:03 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Nvidia now larger than the German stock market

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 May 2024 09:07:06 +0200

Stronger US economic data reduces the case for an interest rate cut, weighing on gold, US Treasuries and global equities. Bucking the trend, Nvidia was up almost 10% and its market cap is now larger than the entire German stock market. The latest eurozone data points to a recovery. Ethereum received a big regulatory boost and the launch of spot Ether ETFs in the US looks more likely. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the CHF, which has now weakened slightly, had been too strong and recalls the time when one of his British pounds bought him more than two Swiss francs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:30 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

NVIDIA trumps the US central bank

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 May 2024 08:53:21 +0200

Equity markets are higher following NVIDIA's stellar results and despite news that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates in restrictive territory for longer than expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, explains why the latest Chinese stimulus package has little impact on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO office summarises the views and positioning of the bank's investment committee.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

01:02 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:27 Impact of China’s rescue package on industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:12 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)

13:45 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors brace for volatility as US markets soar

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 May 2024 08:55:13 +0200

US stocks moved higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at another all-time high, but not without signs of caution among investors ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement today. UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level in almost three years, although April’s drop was not as large as expected which helped the pound sterling jump to its highest level in two months. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides us with his insights into the impact of last week’s US CPI print on the interest rate outlook in the US.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:20 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:56 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets await Nvidia results

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 May 2024 08:53:23 +0200

With artificial intelligence so prominent in our lives, it’s perhaps no surprise that one of the biggest players – Nvidia – is not only partially responsible for the current explosion in the sector, but will also be a key factor in where the markets go this week, given that it reports its results tomorrow. Wall Street firms are certainly lining up for good news so let’s hope that they are not disappointed. Stock markets continue to hit new highs, with gold and silver joining the party. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, explores whether this can continue on today’s show.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:41 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Dow Jones reaches new milestone

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 May 2024 08:49:55 +0200

Both European and US stock markets ended yesterday’s trading session in negative territory, but the Dow Jones made some positive headlines as it touched the significant milestone of 40,000 points for the first time in history. Macroeconomic data releases from the US continued to point to a stable or gradually cooling US economy, while China reported a mixed economic picture, weighing on Asia-Pacific markets. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins the show today to talk about the US dollar and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:14 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Softer US CPI sends stock markets to fresh highs

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 May 2024 08:51:37 +0200

Global equities are rallying on yesterday's lighter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index data, with investors snapping up stocks and riskier currencies. The data has led traders to raise their bets that the Fed will cut its policy rate at least twice this year. And after a recent rally in copper prices, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses whether the copper market has moved too far, too fast.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:51 Copper update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks rise ahead of key US data

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 May 2024 08:57:47 +0200

A rally in big tech drove US equities close to their all-time highs as bond yields fell, with investors awaiting key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. And meme stocks are back on investors’ radar. GameStop surged 180% this week alone, raising questions about the prevailing market sentiment. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about how to navigate through volatile bond markets around CPI data. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, gives us the latest news on the key takeaways from this earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:37 Bond markets update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:31 Earnings Season Review by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US inflation is top of mind, even for Bitcoin

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 May 2024 08:49:17 +0200

Financial markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of US inflation data today and tomorrow, as well as Alibaba and Tencent earnings later today. French President Emanuel Macron said he is open to a major French bank being taken over by a European rival, in a bid to spur deeper financial integration in the euro bloc. Yields on 20-year Japanese government bonds rose to their highest level since 2013. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, says that like any risk-on asset, Bitcoin is awaiting US inflation reports.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:38 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A great week for equities … and the show’s set to continue

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 May 2024 08:55:09 +0200

Equity markets closed last week stronger than they started it and futures broadly project the upward trend to continue today. Nevertheless, China’s latest inflation data over the weekend was disappointingly strong and the news today that China will begin an ultra-long bond selling programme was not enough to support onshore equities today. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark however climbed to its highest level since August 2023. With oil prices moving sideways and precious metals moving higher, our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, explains what this traditionally means for equity markets, whilst also covering his outlook for other asset classes.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:01 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Over USD 800 billion in US Treasury supply coming

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 May 2024 08:52:45 +0200

A higher-than-expected reading on US jobless claims rekindled expectations of earlier interest rate cuts this year, helping US equities to close at their highest levels ever. After the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates on Wednesday, the Bank of England gave clear indications at its policy meeting yesterday that rate cuts are on the horizon. Meanwhile, demand for corporate bonds remains very strong, although risk premiums on debt remain very tight. And Hong Kong stocks are rising on a report that the dividend tax for mainland investors will be abolished. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi says that there is no need to rush into longer-dated bonds at any price.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:11 Fixed Income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

12:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks struggle to hold on to gains

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 May 2024 09:00:00 +0200

While European markets ended the day firmly in the green yesterday, US equities struggled as investors remained fixated on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Asian markets followed the US lower, with Japanese equities underperforming and the recent rally in Hong Kong and mainland China came to a halt. Oil fell close to its lowest level since mid-March, while gold held steady this morning. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, join today’s show to provide further insights into our equity calls and what has been driving the FX markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:35 Changes to our equity calls by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:42 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

15:42 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets ride a wave of optimism

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 May 2024 09:11:30 +0200

Global equity markets are rallying further as investors continue to revise their Fed policy bets after last week’s softer US jobs data. Asian stocks are hitting 15-month highs on renewed confidence in US interest rate cuts, while encouraging PMI data shows further evidence that the eurozone economy is healing. And as Bitcoin shows renewed strength, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:25 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A goldilocks jobs report?

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 May 2024 08:59:37 +0200

Fed Chair Powell’s ‘No hike’ message and weaker-than-expected labour market data was the perfect combination for a strong end to the week for financial markets. Off the back of this, equity markets continued their uptrend after a difficult start to the month. And Chinese equities joined other regions in entering bull market territory. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about the improved sentiment for equity markets after April’s weakness, why he expects US Treasury yields to continue to fall, and why he thinks both have set the stage for new all-time highs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:00 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Earnings still a key market driver

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 May 2024 08:54:43 +0200

Swiss inflation data yesterday showed that the Swiss National Bank is in a comfortable position compared to its peers, but Swiss equity markets are clearly underperforming year-to-date. Strong earnings reports lifted US equities while markets also breathed a sigh of relief that the Fed meeting was less hawkish than feared. Oil and gold are both higher this morning as investors turn their attention to macroeconomic data releases later this afternoon. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins the show today to talk more about the latest currency moves.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:26 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Fed hold underscores higher-for-longer narrative

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 May 2024 08:52:44 +0200

After the US Fed announced a hold in interest rates as expected, Fed chair Powell said that fighting inflation was taking longer than expected but he poured cold water on speculation that the central bank’s next move would be to raise rates. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the recent spike in the price of gold and assesses the impact of Chinese demand and central bank buying.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:17 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A surprisingly good US earnings season

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Apr 2024 08:56:11 +0200

German inflation accelerated for the first time since December, while China PMI data releases point to a slowly healing economy and Tesla's 15% gain helps the S&P 500 close slightly higher. Japanese stocks are gaining, with the focus on yesterday's currency intervention. Samsung's profits rise on AI demand for its chips, while German carmakers report a drop in profits. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, says that macro-economic factors are in the driving seat when it comes to Bitcoin. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights that the US earnings season is surprising on the upside.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:40 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:26 Q1 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)

13:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Earnings season keeps investors busy

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Apr 2024 09:00:20 +0200

Equity markets ended a volatile week on a strong note, with US markets recording their best week since November. Earnings generally boosted markets, although US inflation and activity data were worrying, and yields remained elevated. In the commodities space, M&A talks are adding some noise as miners look to increase their share of copper production. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the technical setup of the markets and what to expect from equities, currencies and gold in the coming months.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:38 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

10:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Monetary policy and earnings in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 Apr 2024 08:52:49 +0200

While central bankers in Europe are sending signals that monetary easing may be around the corner, the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged overnight. Meanwhile in the US, stocks tumbled after data showed a sharp slowdown in economic growth and pointed to persistent inflation. The earnings season continues to make headlines, particularly the big tech companies, whilst Anglo American has rejected BHP's takeover bid. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins the show today to talk about the Japanese yen and the US dollar.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:15 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Are AI-related earnings expectations impossible to meet?

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 Apr 2024 09:05:29 +0200

Markets have had a challenging 24 hours, with equities flat in the US but lower in Europe as bonds sold off and disappointing revenue guidance from Meta weighed particularly on the tech sector overnight. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, talks about the energy market amid geopolitical risks, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office talks about the impact of endogenous and exogenous risks on markets and how they have adjusted their asset allocation amidst the recent volatility.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:41 Energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

09:58 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equities buoyed by strong corporate and economic data

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Apr 2024 08:56:12 +0200

While the earnings season remains in focus, yesterday’s release of PMI data from around the globe helped to assess the economic environment. Equity markets across the board posted positive gains as investors bought into the dip in tech stocks and a strong batch of corporate earnings eased concerns about higher interest rates. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia reported a slowdown in inflation, while the Bank of Japan is again said to be looking at currency intervention. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins the show today to provide an update on the ongoing earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:08 Q1 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:51 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Investor sentiment improves as geopolitical risk fades

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:50:17 +0200

Following last week’s worst selloff in a year, US equities turned a corner yesterday as the risks of a Middle East escalation appeared to ease. Investor sentiment was decidedly more risk-on as this week’s corporate earnings and economic data shifted into focus. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, discusses the impact of geopolitics on bond markets and talks about emerging market debt in the current climate.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:18 The dominance of inflation signals by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Asia kicks off the week with a relief rally on lack of escalation in the Middle East

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 08:50:19 +0200

Markets are in a rallying mood this morning, with most major Asia-Pacific equity markets up on the lack of signs of further escalation in the Middle East. This follows a dismal end to the week in US trading, with the AI darlings in particular weighing on markets. And Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, takes us on a tour of Asia in 80 seconds and explains why Japan remains his top pick.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

01:14 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:10 Asian Markets Update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

13:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Stocks fall on Middle East worries

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 08:48:58 +0200

European and US equity index futures declined overnight as global markets were rocked by fresh conflict in the Middle East that sent stocks lower while oil and safe-haven assets are trading higher. The Fed is hammering home its patient rhetoric. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show today to tell us more about the adage 'sell in May and go away' and what to expect from equity market seasonality in the coming months.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:37 Special: Sell in May and go away? by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

12:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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New sanctions on Russian industrial metals

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Apr 2024 08:58:57 +0200

US equities were lower again in yesterday’s afternoon session, with a drop in orders at European semiconductor company ASML Holdings weighing on technology stocks. US and Asian authorities are pushing back against USD strength and oil is lower on ample US supply. Stocks are in the green this Thursday morning, supported by some upbeat earnings results and comments from Christine Lagarde that Europe's economy is nearing the end of its malaise. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of new sanctions imposed by the UK and US on Russian industrial metals. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, comments on the Swiss franc's recent recovery and much more.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:31 Impact of sanctions on Russian metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:50 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Sticky inflation prompts Fed to delay rate cuts

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Apr 2024 08:56:49 +0200

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signalled that policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to begin cutting interest rates. Nevertheless, despite the recent selloff, global equities are starting to show signs of stability. Investors are now betting on just one to two US rate cuts this year starting in July or September. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides us with an update on the Q1 earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:20 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:28 Q1 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

09:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets lower on geopolitical fears

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Apr 2024 08:56:07 +0200

European markets managed to close Monday’s session higher but the same could not be said for the US, where tech stocks fared the worst. Strong US retail sales data pushed back expectations of rate cuts there until September. Concerns about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did little to calm jittery Asian markets and they fell further on mixed economic data from China. Norbert Rücker explains why it’s important not to underestimate the resilience of the energy market regardless of geopolitical storms, and Manuel Villegas reveals the reasons for the recent price reversal in digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)w

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:04 Geopolitical update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:38 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

13:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Yields remain high, equities rebound, and gold prints a new high

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Apr 2024 08:47:28 +0200

Despite global government bond yields remaining high following this week’s US inflation reports, equities staged a recovery rally into the close. And overnight, gold hit another record high, edging closer to the USD 2,400 mark each day. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Solutions Geneva, shares his views on tuna, pianos and why he is not short the Japanese yen.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:56 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:31 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Markets under the spell of higher US inflation

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Apr 2024 08:54:58 +0200

Hotter US inflation lowered expectations of interest rate cuts. Wall Street reacted with a down day, but the weakness did not spread to European or Asian equities. However, it was government bond yields and the USD that rose sharply. Today's focus is on the ECB's rate decision – a rate cut is not expected, so the focus will be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. And the JPY is at its lowest level since 1980, raising the spectre of monetary intervention. Tensions are rising in the Middle East, but so far the markets have remained calm. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that the latest news on supply and demand dynamics is very supportive for copper, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office highlights the benefits of Swiss and value stocks in diversified equity portfolios.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:21 Copper update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:35 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Everyone’s waiting for US inflation data

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 08:51:43 +0200

Market action appears subdued as investors around the world await key US inflation data later today. Meanwhile, on a more company-specific level, ‘everything AI’ still seems to be the trend. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, data showed that Japan’s corporate inflation rate rose for the third month in a row, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss longer-maturity bonds, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, previews the upcoming earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:12 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:08 Q1 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Who will move first – the ECB or the Fed?

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 08:53:56 +0200

The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:54 Outlook for the Fed and ECB by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

11:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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10-year US rates approaching key levels

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Apr 2024 09:01:12 +0200

Markets had a difficult start to the second quarter last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance for 3 months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices led to growing concerns about inflation. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday has led investors to continue to price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing yields on government bonds to key levels. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 4.5% is an important level for 10-year US Treasury yields.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:10 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks slip and oil gains on Middle East jitters

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Apr 2024 08:51:00 +0200

Markets took a sharp risk-off turn in late US trading yesterday. The main catalyst was rising tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rallying above USD 90/bbl for the first time since October, which in turn added to existing fears about inflation. In Switzerland, inflation figures for March once again surprised to the downside, which put pressure on the Swiss franc. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what he expects for the safe-haven currency going forward and why he expects some currency crosses to continue to trade rangebound.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Global equities back in the green

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Apr 2024 08:53:37 +0200

After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the fact that he reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, explains the different narratives at play in the oil market and what they might mean for the future trajectory of the oil price, and Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, makes the case for his upgrade of global industrial stocks to Overweight.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:09 Oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:05 Industrials upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A poor start to the new quarter

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Apr 2024 08:46:43 +0200

The second quarter is off to a rocky start for global equities as sticky inflation data and strong economic figures have pushed bond yields higher and their prices lower, weighing on a stock market that has so far ignored the repricing of central bank rate cuts in recent months. The only asset currently seeing an upside seems to be commodities, with oil hitting a five-month high and gold reaching a record high yesterday. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for investors right now.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:10 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:52 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks down and yields up on strong US factory data

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Apr 2024 08:39:12 +0200

Strong US manufacturing data, pointing to expansion for the first time in over a year, pushed US Treasury yields higher and stocks lower, albeit in light trading. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade higher, almost on a daily basis. But Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says investors should favour productive assets as momentum remains strong in many parts of the market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:56 Technical analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks push towards new all-time highs in light trading

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:43:34 +0100

The equity market rally is continuing ahead of the Easter break, while fixed income markets are a little less euphoric following Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s comments that recent economic data does not warrant as many interest rate cuts as expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, argues that sentiment in the gold market is overly bullish.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:17 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Falling yen lifts Japanese stocks

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Mar 2024 08:43:12 +0100

While there are still a few trading days left in the quarter, equity trading already seems to be driven by end-of-quarter positioning. Overnight in Asia, Japanese stocks rose as the yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in around 34 years, while the rest of Asia struggled for momentum. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to discuss the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision and what it means for Swiss franc-denominated bonds.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

01:06 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:39 CHF bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:18 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Social media stocks in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Tue, 26 Mar 2024 08:49:00 +0100

Social media stocks are in the spotlight as the EU takes a closer look at their activities and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs a bill banning minors under 14 from having social media accounts. In fixed income, the US yield curve has been inverted for more than 430 trading days, the longest period on record. In Asia, the Chinese government continues its efforts to shore up confidence amid a slowdown in foreign investment. Meanwhile, cocoa prices are at an all-time high, trading higher than copper for the first time ever. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research talks about Bitcoin’s healthy correction and what’s next for the world’s number one digital asset.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets get the green light

Julius Baer — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 08:43:52 +0100

US equities had their best week of the year, with the technology sector leading the way. Global equities were also strong. The broader risk-on sentiment was driven by relatively dovish central bank meetings on both sides of the Atlantic, including the first G10 rate cut of the cycle by the SNB. The dovish backdrop led to a sharp fall in global government bond yields. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the market's technical setup and what the strong momentum in European equity markets means going forward.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:59 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:15 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

08:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The SNB’s surprise move

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Mar 2024 08:47:17 +0100

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting interest rates ahead of other major central banks, sending Swiss equities higher yesterday. Equities were also higher elsewhere: in the US, all three major indices closed at record levels, and European equities also ended at new all-time highs, with UK equities seeing strong gains. Overnight in Asia, however, stock markets were mostly lower, with Japan – once again – being the outlier. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, and Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory join today’s show to discuss what the central banks' decisions mean for the FX and Swiss real estate markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:22 What the SNB rate cut means for the Swiss real estate market by Markus Waeber (Head Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)

15:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities advance on Fed rate hold and booming tech sector

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Mar 2024 08:50:13 +0100

US stocks rallied yesterday, closing at all-time highs after the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. The market optimism is extending to Asia today, where stocks are at their highest levels in nearly two years as the tech sector rallies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial production in China, what this means for industrial metals and why we like copper.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:45 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:10 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks continue to rise ahead of the Fed meeting

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Mar 2024 08:54:54 +0100

Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the much-anticipated Fed decision, with government bond yields stabilising yesterday. That didn’t stop equities in the US and Europe from reaching new record highs. The focusnow moves to central banks for the rest of the week. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, talks about the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and what to expect from the FOMC meeting today.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:10 Bond markets and central banks by Dario Messi (Fixed income Strategy)

11:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The end of an era for central banks

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Mar 2024 08:46:17 +0100

After 17 years, the Bank of Japan has become the last global central bank to end its negative interest rate policy, but the JPY is lower as some expected even more policy tightening. US equities outperformed on strength in AI names, in particular Alphabet. Nvidia unveiled a new chip that is up to 30 times faster than its predecessor. Demand for high yield bonds remains strong despite low spreads. Oil has moved above its range from earlier in the year amid supply concerns. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research talks about how the price of Bitcoin has become a function of demand for the new spot Bitcoin ETFs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:16 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:00 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Investors face a key week with the US and Japan in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Mar 2024 08:44:26 +0100

With a number of major central banks meeting this week, volatility will potentially return to equity markets. Slightly weaker economic growth data, coupled with inflation that is proving stickier than expected, is making life difficult for central bankers now. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why investing at market tops tends to be beneficial over time.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:15 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Inflation spoils the mood

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 08:51:54 +0100

Higher-than-expected producer prices spooked investors yesterday, sending Treasury yields and the US dollar higher and equity markets lower. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year medium term lending facility rate unchanged and investors are now focusing on Japan’s interest rate decision next week. Bitcoin saw a pullback, while oil climbed to a fresh 2024 high after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit throughout this year. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins today’s show to share his insights on the FX markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:16 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets await the last big data release ahead of next week’s Fed meeting

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Mar 2024 08:49:51 +0100

European stocks closed broadly higher on Wednesday whilst the US took a breather, with some of the big tech stocks lower on the day. Japan was the standout Asian stock market with stocks boosted by an advance in commodity companies and a slightly weaker yen. The general market focus now turns to US PPI data due out today. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research Norbert Rücker, gives his latest thoughts on the oil market, and Nicolas Jordan provides the latest market insights from our CIO office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:22 Oil market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:05 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US inflation tops forecasts for a second straight month

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Mar 2024 08:45:34 +0100

US and European equity markets put in another strong performance yesterday, climbing to fresh records as the latest hotter-than-expected inflation figures did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year - even if officials keep a more cautious stance for now. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, shares details about yesterday’s US inflation report and what it means for the Fed and bond investors.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:37 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

09:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks falter as Bitcoin soars ahead of US CPI data

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Mar 2024 08:51:04 +0100

US equities ended mostly lower in a calmer session yesterday ahead of today’s eagerly awaited inflation print out of the US. The Japanese yen fell against its peers after the latest comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on Bitcoin and shares his insights into what’s driving its string of new all-time highs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:30 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks consolidate in a bull market

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Mar 2024 08:54:05 +0100

The US labour market continues to cool, but red-hot Nvidia first hit a record high then recorded a 10% intra-day drop, the USD had its longest losing streak since last October, and gold and Bitcoin reached all-time highs – these are just some of the headlines from last week. Asia is starting this week with better inflation figures out of China, but prospects of higher interest rates and a stronger JPY mean that Japanese shares are off their all-time high. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that in a bull market, momentum peaking indicates a slowing uptrend, which is followed by a sideways consolidation, not a lasting decline in prices.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:26 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:09 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equities rally as major central banks hint at rate cuts ahead

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Mar 2024 08:42:15 +0100

Both European and US stock market indices rally to new all-time highs as the two most important central bankers hint at interest rate cuts as early as this summer. In currencies, the Japanese yen is higher again this morning, trading at multi-month highs against the US dollar. And Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on why he thinks gold's rally has no legs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:13 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Global equities rally further on market optimism

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Mar 2024 09:05:23 +0100

After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony yesterday, US equity markets rallied further, recouping some of Tuesday's pullback. And Europe’s STOXX 600 index reached an all-time high yesterday, ahead of today’s ECB policy rate decision. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins us with an update on currencies and precious metal markets. And Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, talks to us about the outcome of China’s ‘Two Sessions’ politburo meeting.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:34 Currencies and metals markets update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

13:02 Outcome of China’s ‘Two Sessions’ by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

18:46 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The Magnificent Seven under the weather

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Mar 2024 08:58:22 +0100

Markets were on the back foot yesterday, dragged down by tech giants such as Tesla and Apple, which added to their year-to-date losses. While tech stocks led the declines, the losses were fairly broad-based. In addition to the tech correction, some weaker than expected economic data added to fears that a soft landing might not be a done deal. The general weakness in data helped to push government bond yields lower throughout the day, with gold and bitcoin hitting new all-time highs in intraday trading. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, gives more insight into what to expect from central bank meetings in the coming weeks.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:30 A big central bank month: Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:40 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A big day in politics

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Mar 2024 08:47:54 +0100

It’s a big day in politics today. Not only is it Super Tuesday in the US where primaries are being held, but China has also kicked off its National People’s Congress today, where it has set its annual growth target ‘at around 5%’. So far, China has not announced any major fiscal stimulus and as such, Asia-Pacific markets are mostly lower today. This also follows yesterday’s session in the US, where stocks took a breather from the recent rally. Meanwhile, for Bitcoin, it looks like there is no stopping the rally and we have Manuel Villegas on the show to share his views on the latest developments there.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:48 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:45 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Can stocks maintain the relentless rally?

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Mar 2024 08:52:20 +0100

European and US equity indices reached new highs on Friday and indeed, one bank has now set a 5,400 year-end target for the S&P 500. And the rally continues in Asia this morning with both Japan and India setting new highs. Ahead of a busy week that will culminate with the all-important US employment report on Friday, our Head of Technical Analysis Mensur Pocinci tackles the technical challenges of trying to spot the end of a rally … before moving on to grapple with other technical conundrums.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:29 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities in China and Japan outperform in February

Julius Baer — Fri, 01 Mar 2024 08:47:37 +0100

The release of US and European inflation data eased concerns about renewed price pressures, pushing bond yields lower and giving a boost to US equities in particular, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at all-time highs. But the real star of February in terms of monthly equity performance was Asia, with Japan (also at an all-time high) and China outperforming global equities. And India just raised its growth forecast to 7.6%, the strongest figure among the major economies. In Switzerland, there was a surprise announcement that the chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, has decided to step down. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about how, contrary to some perceptions, range-bound currency markets are quite attractive.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:13 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Bitcoin rallies on supply squeeze - but the European Central Bank sows doubts

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Feb 2024 08:50:10 +0100

While equities traded slightly lower yesterday ahead of some key economic data due today, all the action was around Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, which shot through the USD 60,000 mark, accelerating a rally that has seen it gain 50% in February alone. And Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, puts the latest moves in the energy market into perspective - the main message being that the energy crisis is over.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:59 European energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Subdued markets await tomorrow's inflation print

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Feb 2024 08:56:58 +0100

While most investors are eagerly awaiting tomorrow's US inflation numbers, yesterday's data releases have raised some doubts about the stability of the US economy. Meanwhile in Asia, new government initiatives in Hong Kong are boosting the property sector, while the Chinese government is tightening its national security protocols. Corporate news is also moving markets, such as Apple's decision to abandon its decade-long effort to develop an electric car. In today's episode, our equity strategist, Nenad Dinic, explains why the Indian stock market stands out amongst its emerging market peers.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:45 Indian equities by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)

11:27 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US markets take a breather while Japanese inflation surprises to the upside

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Feb 2024 08:53:31 +0100

US benchmark equity indices broke their winning streak yesterday as fresh economic data underwhelmed investors. In Japan, core consumer inflation slowed for a third straight month in January but beat forecasts, fuelling speculation that the central bank may soon abandon its negative-interest-rate policy. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us with an update on Bitcoin spot ETFs and looks at why a supply squeeze may lie ahead.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:08 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Data makes it difficult to time the first rate cuts

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Feb 2024 08:55:10 +0100

While equity markets are pushing higher, bond investors need to navigate carefully. Last week’s FOMC minutes, PMIs and employment data, all had a hawkish tilt to them. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, showing the continued strength in the US labour market. The price components of the PMI data showed that inflationary pressures remain. And the FOMC minutes sent a clear message that the members have ruled out any interest rate cuts in the near future. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to talk in more detail about the Japanese rally and what springtime might have in store for Swiss equities.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:46 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:57 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Off to new highs

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Feb 2024 08:47:16 +0100

Nothing is certain but death and taxes … and Nvidia beating earnings. Global equity markets stormed to fresh all-time highs on Thursday following Nvidia’s blowout earnings report. The company added USD 277 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday alone, making this the biggest single-session gain in value of all time. The Nvidia-led optimism sent the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones indices to new all-time highs. However, all global equities benefited yesterday, with Europe also reaching new all-time highs. Luca Menozzi from Next Generation Research joins the show today to talk about the automation and robotics theme.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:37 Automation and Robotics by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research)

09:02 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Nvidia provides some fuel for a potential continuation of the AI-rally

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 08:52:53 +0100

Giant chipmaker Nvidia published an eye-watering set of results and forecasts yesterday, sparking a rally in Asian equities this morning. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting provided more fuel to those believing that interest rates will remain where they are for longer. David Kohl, Chief Economist, puts things into perspective after the latest round of inflation prints, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the latest views from the CIO Office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:45 Inflation/central bank outlook in US and Switzerland by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:58 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tech headaches weigh on broader market

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Feb 2024 08:51:08 +0100

Concerns that Nvidia may miss high expectations for its quarterly results and that the technology sector is overvalued have weighed on the broader US equity market. Later today, investors will look to the January FOMC meeting minutes for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s outlook. In Asia, China’s stimulus measures appear to have been successful, with stock indices rising. In today’s episode, Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research provides an update on our fixed income strategy and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses cyclicals versus defensive.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:34 Fixed Income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:38 Cyclicals vs. defensives by Mathieu Racheter (Head Equity Strategy)

14:14 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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European stocks close in on record highs

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 08:51:25 +0100

Global markets have been subdued over the last 24 hours given the US holiday. In very quiet markets, the STOXX 600 built on its run of four consecutive weekly gains to close within touching distance of its record high. Overnight attention was focused on China, where stocks fluctuated after domestic banks cut a key mortgage reference rate by a record amount. Manuel Villegas from the Next Generation Research team provides the latest news on digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:06 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Sentiment remains positive for equities despite sticky inflation

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Feb 2024 09:02:51 +0100

While US bond markets continued to sell off last week on higher-than-expected inflation data, equities were less impressed. However, European equities managed to eke out a gain over the week for the fourth time in as many weeks. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, remains bullish on US equities and shares his views on whether he thinks Japanese equities can go even higher.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:59 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Many (near) highs in the stock market

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Feb 2024 08:48:44 +0100

European equities are close to their 2022 highs, Japanese equities are just below their 1989 highs, and US equities closed at an all-time high with the rally broadening beyond the Magnificent 7. The European bond market saw the largest corporate bond offering in more than a year from Siemens, which was more than three times oversubscribed. Shares in Hong Kong are showing signs of life, up for a third day in a row, as consumer spending in China is picking up with a surge in travel during the first six days of the holiday. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, says that markets got to excited about rate cuts, and discusses the implications for currency markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:32 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets shrug off US inflation data but recession rears its ugly head

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 08:46:38 +0100

Equity markets rallied yesterday, shrugging off Tuesday’s US inflation data whilst embracing earnings announcements. Slightly tarnishing the mood came the news this morning that the economies in both Japan and the UK have contracted for two consecutive quarters, which means that they are technically in a recession. Despite this, the Nikkei 225 closed above 38,000 today for the first time since 1990. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks us through the outlook for gold and silver.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:58 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Financial markets caught off guard by sticky US CPI

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Feb 2024 08:58:57 +0100

Equity and bond markets sold off after US CPI data topped estimates. The tech heavy Nasdaq was hit the hardest while the broader S&P 500 fell back below the 5,000 mark. Yields increased strongly. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, talks about how to position in such a market. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, gives an update on the earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:18 Bond Market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

12:02 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

17:01 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Consumer sentiment buoyant ahead of US CPI

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Feb 2024 08:55:52 +0100

US consumer expectations for inflation over the medium term have dropped to the lowest level since 2013 ahead of today’s key US CPI inflation print. Hotter-than-expected UK unemployment data is encouraging news for the labour market in the UK, where the Bank of England remains cautious about cutting interest rates prematurely. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to share his insights into crypto assets and the drivers behind the recent rally in Bitcoin.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:04 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets rally to new highs – but investors are not euphoric

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Feb 2024 08:47:00 +0100

US equity markets are greeting this week at lofty levels, having been driven higher and higher by the tech mega-caps, despite the recent rise in yields. Even European markets managed to close last week higher for the third time in a row. Are investors too euphoric? Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, does not think so. Rather, he says, they were too pessimistic going into 2024.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:26 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Strong price reactions to earnings releases

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Feb 2024 08:56:09 +0100

The major US and European stock indices only moved slightly, but the reaction to earnings surprises was very strong, including that of stocks such as ARM, SoftBank, Disney and L'Oreal, to name but a few. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen addressed concerns about the US commercial real estate market and focused on non-bank mortgage lenders. Bitcoin is showing strong gains as the new ETFs in the US are seeing steady inflows. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, talks about how to invest in currencies when FX markets are calm.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:52 Currencies and metals by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)

08:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tech stocks power US equity market rally

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Feb 2024 08:58:03 +0100

US stocks extended their rally yesterday on prospects that a solid global economy will continue to fuel corporate earnings. The S&P 500 climbed to a new high just shy of the milestone 5,000 mark, as the rally led by technology stocks powered ahead. We speak to our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, who gives an update on the natural gas market. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, joins us to share the latest views from the CIO Office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:25 Natural gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

11:25 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Some calm returns to markets after bond rout, China in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Feb 2024 08:50:15 +0100

In the absence of any significant economic data releases, equity markets take a breather and US Treasury yields slightly retreat after a period of volatility following strong US labour market data and Jerome Powell’s comments on Sunday. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his thoughts on the latest policy actions in China and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides an update on the US earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:07 Chinese equities by Richard Tang (Head of Research, Hong Kong)

12:23 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:52 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Chinese stocks rally on fresh stimulus

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Feb 2024 08:43:28 +0100

Yesterday's strong economic data from the US prompted traders to scale back their expectations regarding interest rate cuts, sending Treasury yields higher along with the US dollar. Equity markets suffered across the board, but overnight news of new Chinese stimulus measures improved market sentiment. We are about halfway through the earnings season and it is still making plenty of headlines. Dario Messi, from Fixed Income Research, also shares an update on bond markets in today’s show.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:33 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategist)

09:00 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A red-hot US employment report

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Feb 2024 08:49:26 +0100

On Friday US bond yields soared, the USD strengthened and expectations for the size of the 2024 rate cuts were scaled back. Equities didn’t mind, with the US indices reaching new all-time highs. All of this was driven by a red-hot US January jobs report last Friday, following an already eventful week for financial markets on the back of some exciting earnings reports. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show today to discuss the technical setup of the market and why equity markets continue to have all the characteristics of a bull market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:26 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:20 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Big tech continues to dominate - earnings reports fuel rally

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 08:51:49 +0100

After falling on Wednesday on renewed concerns about the path of US interest rate cuts and the state of commercial property valuations, equities bounced back yesterday - Meta, Amazon and Apple all delivered solid earnings reports after the close of trading, sending equity market futures higher. Tim Gagie, Head of FX and PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on how investors can make the most of the current environment in the FX markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Powell closes the door for a March rate cut

Julius Baer — Thu, 01 Feb 2024 08:54:00 +0100

The Fed held interest rates steady yesterday but pushed back on the prospect of rate cuts in March. US equities took a hit on Wednesday after some of the biggest names failed to live up to high expectations, dragging European markets lower in the afternoon session. Softer price data out of Europe and concerns over a regional US bank led to a rally in bonds. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the oil market, and Ronny Kaufmann from our CIO Office talks about the ongoing earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:11 Commodity update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics and Next Generation Research)

09:17 Latest from the Investment Committee by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Data, earnings and rate decisions keep investors on their toes

Julius Baer — Wed, 31 Jan 2024 08:58:00 +0100

The latest GDP figures from the eurozone boosted equities in the region yesterday. Meanwhile, the US reported a robust labour market and strong consumer confidence ahead of today’s interest rate decision, both of which suggest that the US economy remains in good health. In China, manufacturing activity remained in contraction mode while services activity continued to expand. China is also reportedly planning to merge hundreds of rural banks into regional giants. Dario Messi, from Fixed Income Research, joins today’s show to outline our view on TIPS and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, updates us on the Q4 earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:49 Now is not the time for TIPS by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

12:05 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

15:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investor sentiment jumpy ahead of this week’s Fed’s meeting

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Jan 2024 08:50:19 +0100

The S&P 500 recorded a fresh record high yesterday ahead of key economic reports and central bank action this week, which could prove pivotal for markets in 2024. We speak to our Head of Research in Hong Kong, Richard Tang, who shares his views on the health of China’s real estate sector and the impact for the broader Chinese and Hong Kong markets. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the key drivers behind the selloff in Bitcoin in recent weeks.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:44 Evergrande liquidation impact by Richard Tang (Head of Research, Hong Kong)
12:17 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

16:05 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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It’s Fed week

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Jan 2024 08:51:10 +0100

LVMH and Richemont earnings reports drove luxury stocks higher last week, with Eurozone equities outperforming. US equities underperformed, but still reached an all-time high. This week will be all about the Fed, but also the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta (five of the Magnificent 7) will also likely drive markets as they report earnings. Geopolitical tensions will be in focus after the first US troops were killed in the Middle East since hostilities between Israel and Hamas began. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the path of least resistance in the markets is for bond yields to fall and (US growth) equities to rise.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:18 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:19 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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US growth continues to surprise on the upside

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 Jan 2024 08:57:04 +0100

Equities kept their positive momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at another record high and yields falling across the entire yield curve amid softer US price data and a more dovish than expected ECB. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what this means for FX markets and suggests taking advantage of increased volatility, while Nenad Dinic from our Equity Strategists team gives us an update on the Q4 earnings season and why he still prefers US over European equities.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:42 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
06:46 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:38 Earnings season update by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)

15:19 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Microsoft just shy of USD 3 trillion market capitalisation

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 Jan 2024 08:49:30 +0100

Large-cap US tech stocks rallied yesterday, with Microsoft closing just shy of a USD 3 trillion market cap, while most other sectors were lower as yields on 30-year US Treasuries rose to their highest this year. Germany's DAX index closed at an all-time high following strong gains in SAP and some better-than-expected German manufacturing data. The rally in Chinese equities continued for a second day. Today's focus will be on central banks, including the ECB, and earnings from heavyweights such as LVMH. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the outlook for the Future Mobility and Circular Economy investment themes.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:31 Future Mobility and Circular Economy by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Investor focus shifts to Europe ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Jan 2024 08:55:30 +0100

As equity markets in Europe struggle for direction, US stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 reaching a fresh all-time closing high. In politics, Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley to win the key New Hampshire primary, in what pundits are claiming is now a done deal for Trump moving ahead. And Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, shares with us his views on European government bonds ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting tomorrow.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:23 European government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US equities at all-time highs

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Jan 2024 08:53:46 +0100

In the US, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs yesterday, suggesting that Wall Street is indeed in a bull run. Meanwhile, in Asia, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged and Chinese authorities are reportedly planning fresh stimulus measures to help ailing stock markets both onshore and offshore. In Europe, Italy’s yield premium over Germany narrowed to its smallest in almost two years. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the show today to discuss the implications of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
07:12 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:46 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A mixed bag in stock markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Jan 2024 08:59:59 +0100

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high last week, but European stocks ended the week lower. This morning the Nikkei 225 is up more than 1.6% but China’s stocks are in the red. Investors now anticipate European Central Bank policy decisions and two major US data reports at the end of this week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, reveals what the charts are saying about the current market situation and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides insights into the Chinese equity doldrums.

00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:39 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:44 China markets by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

14:45 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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Tech stocks driving markets higher

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 08:55:19 +0100

The world’s largest technology companies are leading stocks higher around the globe, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching an all-time high yesterday. Treasuries spiked inthe immediate aftermath of yesterday’s jobs report, but the move quickly lost steam. Meanwhile, Italy looks set to proceed with its privatisation push, which could see the country sell EUR 20 billion worth of its stakes in state-owned companies by 2026. InAsia, Japan’s inflation numbers for December came in at the lowest level since June 2022. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what’s happening in the FX markets and Adrienne Jaersvall, Head of Funds Advisory, talks about alternative investments.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:01 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:29 Market Outlook 2024 – Alternative investments by Adrienne Jaersvall (Head of Funds Advisory)

16:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Buoyant US data delays case for rate cuts

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 08:51:17 +0100

Stocks around the globe fell for a third day and bond yields rose, as traders trimmed their bets on rate cuts by the Fed after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. Fed swaps are now showing the probability of a rate cut in March at just 58%, versus 90% for May. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on industrial metals and the Chinese economy. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, talks to us about external shocks in markets and the outlook for the global economy.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:15 China/Iron ore by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:32 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Central banks pushing back on rate cut expectations

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Jan 2024 08:57:06 +0100

The market’s positioning for aggressive cuts in the US and Europe is being tested this week by several central bank officials. All of this is pushing US and European bond yields higher and continuing to weigh on equity markets. In Asia, a stock selloff deepened after fresh data redoubled concerns about China’s economy. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins today’s show to shed some light on what to expect from bonds this year, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, gives us more insight into the ongoing earnings season.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

01:05 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:28 Market Outlook 2024 - fixed income calls by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:22 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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With the US closed, all eyes on Davos

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Jan 2024 08:55:07 +0100

US markets were shut for Martin Luther King Day yesterday, but polling booths in frozen Iowa were open for Republicans who voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump as their next presidential nominee. Also yesterday, the World Economic Forum in Davos kicked off, with the ECB’s Robert Holzmann stealing most of the headlines as he sent European stock prices down and bond prices up with his comments that there might be no scope for rate cuts in the Eurozone in 2024. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communication, provides a sneak peek into the forthcoming Market Outlook 2024 Webcast taking place at 10:00 CET on the 18th January, whilst Manuel Villegas rejoins the show from Next Generation Research with the latest news on digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:47 Market Outlook 2024 Webcast 18th January by Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)

10:15 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

15:28 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Microsoft becomes the world’s largest company

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 Jan 2024 08:53:42 +0100

US equities rallied last week on growing expectations of lower interest rates and Microsoft became the largest company by market capitalisation. The earnings season kicked off in earnest on Friday with the major banks including JPMorgan reporting, and this will be followed by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs announcing results on Tuesday. The Republican nomination process for the US presidency begins tonight with the Iowa caucuses, where the former President Trump is seen as the clear frontrunner. Chinese equities are only marginally lower as China's central bank did not cut a key interest rate, while Baidu is sharply down as the risk of sanctions on the company has increased. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, points out that the uptrend in (US) equities remains intact, as does the downtrend in bond yields.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:01 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US CPI data fails to impress

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Jan 2024 09:04:09 +0100

US CPI data, revealing that headline prices increased more than expected in December while core inflation fell, disappointed equity markets on Thursday. A US/UK airstrike on Houthi rebels in Yemen added to inflationary concerns although it did provide a boost to oil prices. Markets are now turning their attention to the US earnings season. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provide timely updates on what’s hot and what’s not in the FX and equity markets as we start the year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:30 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:24 Market Outlook 2024 – Equities by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

16:06 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US inflation and spot Bitcoin ETF approval in focus today

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Jan 2024 09:00:32 +0100

Today’s main focus will be the first trading day of the newly approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs and the market’s reaction to the release of US inflation figures. Asian shares are seeing their best day since the start of the year on USD weakness, and the EUR is higher as ECB officials caution against interest rate cuts. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that the muted price reaction to the SEC’s approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs is probably a positive sign. Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Office, highlights that a more optimistic investor consensus compared with the start of last year means that market fragility has increased in the short term.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:41 Bitcoin ETF approval by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:24 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Today is a big day for Bitcoin

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Jan 2024 08:57:16 +0100

As global equities continue to struggle, Japanese equities are hitting highs last seen in 1990. US Treasury yields are higher ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data while investors continue to look for clues as to the state of the US economy and the direction of interest rates. Bitcoin had a volatile evening yesterday following a false report that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins today’s show to shed some light on the US fiscal budget and bond issuance, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, tells us what to expect from the earnings season that’s just around the corner.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:38 Bond marker update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:20 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

13:25 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Big tech rallies while subdued German data disappoints

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Jan 2024 09:01:51 +0100

While a string of economic data prints out of Germany disappoint, big tech made a comeback yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite posting its best daily return since November. After Swiss inflation remained stable in December, the Swiss franc shows renewed strength and the SMI is one of the few European indices in positive territory year to date. And Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talks to us about the health of the Japanese equity market and why he sees India as a rose among the thorns.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:36 Asia update: India, China and Japan by Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia)

16:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The end of a rocky first week in financial markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Jan 2024 08:50:26 +0100

A string of hawkish comments, a rise in inflation rates in Europe and a strong US employment report last week had market participants worried that interest rates were set to stay higher for longer than they had hoped, putting stocks and bonds on course for one of the worst starts to the year in a decade. In China, investors are faced with the shadow banking giant Zhongzhi filing for bankruptcy, marking one of China’s biggest-ever corporate collapses. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show today to discuss the technical setup of the market and why you shouldn’t pay too much attention to the first week of equity market performance when it comes to its implications for the rest of the year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:20 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The struggle continues

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 08:50:13 +0100

Equities around the world continue to struggle, with US equities set to end the week lower, snapping a nine-week winning streak. This comes as traders increasingly reduce their bets on how quickly and how deeply central banks will cut interest rates. In Asia, investors are speculating that the Bank of Japan will find it difficult to scrap its negative interest rates at a time when the country needs monetary support following the tragic events there. Meanwhile, oil rose overnight despite yesterday's data showing an oversupply in the US. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to provide further insights into the bond market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:46 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategist)

09:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets in a hangover mood - and the Fed offers no medicine

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Jan 2024 08:47:56 +0100

Equity markets continued to slide yesterday, with most markets posting negative performance for the day. Economic data pointing to some weakness in the US and China, as well as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, have been the main talking points over the last few hours. Meanwhile, oil is rising again this morning - Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on where the price of black gold is heading.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:38 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special Episode: Good retirement planning

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 08:30:00 +0100

As part of a special winter series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a conversation on Beyond Markets between Gaetano Petrocelli, Head of Wealth Planning Insurance, and Grace Treston, Content Editor about what factors we should consider for good retirement planning.

Our regular programme featuring daily market news returns on Thursday 4th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Good Retirement Planning by Gaetano Petrocelli (Head of Wealth Planning Insurance) and Grace Treston (Content Editor)

05:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Special Episode: How secure is our food future?

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 08:30:00 +0100

As part of a special winter series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a conversation between Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Emily Rookwood, Head of Publications on the topic of food inflation and food security.

Our regular programme featuring daily market news returns on Thursday 4th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Food inflation and food security by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

12:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special Episode: Investing in Swiss Assets

Julius Baer — Fri, 29 Dec 2023 08:55:00 +0100

As part of a special winter series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a conversation about investing in Swiss assets between Helen Freer and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, along with Dario Messi, a Fixed Income Strategist on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets series. They talk about the strength of the labour market in Switzerland as well as the currency, the high-quality businesses, the safe-haven status of both the currency and the country, and much more.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:45 Investing in Swiss Assets by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) and Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategist)

08:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Our regular programme featuring daily market news returns on Thursday 4th January.

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Special Episode: China’s Economy

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Dec 2023 09:00:00 +0100

As part of a special winter series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a recent conversation about the Chinese market between Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, and China Strategist Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong). Together, they discuss China’s exports and property market.

Our regular programme featuring daily market news returns on Thursday 4th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:38 China's Economy by Hong Hao (Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group)
08:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Special Episode: Looking at the biotechnology sector

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Dec 2023 09:00:00 +0100

As part of a special winter series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a recent conversation on biotechnology between healthcare analyst Fabian Wenner and equity specialist Yaw Shin Wong on the Julius Baer Beyond Markets podcast. Together they talk about the fundamentals of this segment of healthcare, mRNA technology and the number of acquisitions taking place.

Our regular programme featuring daily market news returns on Thursday 4th January.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:41 Biotechnology by Fabian Wenner (Healthcare Analyst) and Yaw Shin Wong (Equity Specialist Asia)
05:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Will there be a Santa Claus rally?

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Dec 2023 08:52:01 +0100

US equities recovered from Wednesday’s sell-off and are now on track for a Santa Claus rally, which refers to the last five trading days of the year. However, the positive mood could be spoilt by two things: the PCE deflator figures due later today, which will provide a fresh indication of where US inflation is heading, and concerns in China as the country cracks down on the mobile gaming industry. In commodities, Angola’s decision to leave OPEC has raised some questions about how effective the organisation really is, but oil is currently well supported by tensions in the Red Sea. Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy, joins the show today to discuss the impact of higher interest rates on private markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:10 What higher interest rates mean for private markets by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea (Head of Private Markets Strategy)

13:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock market rally stalls as traders take profits ahead of long weekend

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Dec 2023 08:55:12 +0100

Yields in Europe have come under significant pressure as inflation has collapsed across the board, with the German 10-year benchmark yield now back below 2%. Meanwhile, the relentless rally in equity markets over the past few weeks took a pause yesterday, with traders apparently taking some chips off the table ahead of the long weekend. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about our commodities outlook for 2024 and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares the latest thoughts from the CIO Office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:53 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:49 Commodities Market Outlook 2024 by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

12:44 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity rally continues on growing hopes of a soft landing

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Dec 2023 08:58:30 +0100

US equities continued to rally yesterday on encouraging economic data prints and Fed officials’ comments, furthering strengthening the narrative for a soft-landing in the US economy. In the UK, core and headline inflation data came in lower than estimated, with the pound sterling falling on the news. And as fixed income markets reflect a growing consensus that central banks have reached the peak of their rate-hiking cycles, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, shares his latest insights into bond markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:16 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:19 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Fed pushback defied by Wall Street

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Dec 2023 08:55:32 +0100

Central bank officials continue to push back on aggressive rate cut expectations. While US equity markets are still powering ahead, Europe is looking for direction. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, talks about the latest central bank decisions and what it means for markets in 2024. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, has a special Christmas gift for us.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
07:19 Latest central bank meetings and interest rate outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

13:46 Review of FX markets in 2023 by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

16:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A positive end to one week, a jittery start to the next

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Dec 2023 08:52:36 +0100

European and US equities closed last week higher and a few new record highs were reached following a series of central bank decisions to leave rates unchanged. A few Fed speakers then stepped in to curb traders’ enthusiasm over likely rate cuts, causing Asian equites (Korea aside) to stall this morning. US futures however point to a steady day ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the rally still has legs, and he adds the technical reasons to invest in Indian equities to our fundamental call.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

08:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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European central banks have yet to join the party – still, markets are up

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Dec 2023 08:52:29 +0100

After starting the trading day on a strong footing, European markets petered out during the day but still ended in positive territory. European central banks refrain from declaring victory over inflation and stick to their tight monetary policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what this means for currencies and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
07:00 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities rally on bullish Fed pivot

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Dec 2023 08:49:25 +0100

After the US Federal Reserve yesterday left interest rates unchanged as expected and signalled interest-rate cuts next year, global stocks gained for a sixth straight session and US Treasury yields plummeted. Today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank to announce their latest rate decisions, with expectations for a hold in rates across the board. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares with us his key takeaways from COP 28 and his current views on the energy transition.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:46 COP 28 by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
10:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks continue to rally ahead of today's Fed rate decision

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Dec 2023 08:52:27 +0100

Although US consumer price inflation figures came in slightly higher than expected, equities continued their Santa Claus rally, with the S&P500 Index now trading at highs not seen since January 2022. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about this week's key central bank meetings and his expectations for their interest rate decisions.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:26 Bond market update/Central bank preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investors wait patiently for US inflation numbers

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 08:57:46 +0100

Trading has started this week on a subdued note as investors await the US Consumer Price Index figures later today, which will test the market’s optimism for interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, in Asia, China’s Central Economic Work Conference is expected to conclude today and could shed light on how the country plans to support economic growth. In commodities, copper is making headlines as the metal’s supply could tighten due to political and social opposition, and the difficulty of developing new operations. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research is also on the show today to discuss the key developments in digital assets in 2023.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:25 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The DAX hits an all-time high and it’s a big week for central banks

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Dec 2023 08:57:51 +0100

The world's major central banks meet this week. Apart from Brazil, no rate changes are expected. The focus will therefore be on their forward-looking communication. Germany's DAX index hit a new all-time high on Friday, while better-than-expected US non-farm payroll figures boosted the S&P 500 index. In Asia, China's consumer prices fell by the most in three years in November and the JPY remains in focus after a dramatic spike on Friday. Bitcoin is giving back some of its gains this Monday morning after this year's spike. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that it is a good sign for equities that this year's laggards (European and small caps) are catching up quickly.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The Japanese yen, India’s equities and AI captivate financial markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Dec 2023 08:57:14 +0100

On a day when we await non-farm payrolls data, ahead of a central bank heavy week, one might have expected muted markets. Instead, the three main US indices broke their three-day losing streak as artificial intelligence (AI) announcements drove equities higher. And India’s election results, combined with their central bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged, boosted their stock markets to record highs. The yen surged more than 1% and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks us through all of the associated market reactions, and highlights his calls ahead of those central bank meetings next week.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:07 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:46 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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US awaits more labour market data

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 08:51:46 +0100

A string of labour-focused data releases in the US has the potential to move markets at the end of this week. Meanwhile in Europe, traders are increasing their bets on monetary policy easing from the European Central Bank and are now pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. In Asia, Chinese imports and the auction of a 30-year Japanese government bond both disappointed. In commodities, oil stabilised after several days of declines and US gasoline prices hit their lowest level since 3 January 2023. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain what’s going on in the gold market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:40 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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ECB speech sparks stock rally in Germany - and bond yields continue to fall

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 08:49:49 +0100

Germany's Dax index, arguably the most cyclical market in Europe, closed at a record high after Isabel Schnabel, a prominent official at the European Central Bank, said the slowdown in inflation was ‘remarkable’. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, says that the bond rally may have gone a little too far for now, but there is still plenty of value to be found.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:14 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US markets falter on disappointing factory orders data

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Dec 2023 08:42:29 +0100

US stock markets slipped yesterday after US factory orders fell by more than expected in October adding to signs that the US economy looks set to slow in the fourth quarter. The latest core inflation data out of Tokyo slowed from the previous month in an encouraging sign that cost pressure in Japan is easing. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about the latest Bitcoin rally and whether it looks sustainable.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:28 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US Treasury yields drop like a stone

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 08:53:22 +0100

US equities rallied and bond yields fell sharply on Friday after comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised market bets that interest rates will be cut next year sooner than markets had previously discounted. Gold rose to an all-time high in Asian trading today, at one point reaching USD 2,135 an ounce. Bitcoin rose above USD 41,500 on the prospect of lower interest rates and the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Roche buys Carmot Therapeutics to enter the obesity treatment market. And at COP 28, more than 20 countries pledged to triple nuclear power by 2050. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that the decline in bond yields could be much faster than most expect.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:55 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research

08:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Best monthly return for the 60/40 portfolio since 1991

Julius Baer — Fri, 01 Dec 2023 08:54:15 +0100

Equities and bonds rallied in November on the back of softer inflation data and inflation expectations. This was confirmed by yesterday's data releases from the US and the eurozone, with the latter reporting year-on-year inflation of just 2.4% in November, close to the ECB's 2.0% target. Oil moved lower on an uninspiring OPEC+ decision to cut output and a report showing record US production in September 2023. Chinese equities are off their lows on rumours that state-owned companies have been buying local ETFs. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire appears to have ended but markets have remained calm. All eyes are on today's fireside chat with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that you can have all the protection you want in a portfolio but it does not do you any good if you never take any profits.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:28 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Equities soar as bond yields plunge

Julius Baer — Thu, 30 Nov 2023 08:57:17 +0100

Global stocks are on course for their best month in three years, as bond yields continue to tumble on speculation that the US Federal Reserve is done tightening and will start cutting rates next year. This has led to the US dollar falling further against its peers, with the greenback set for its worst month in a year. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks to us about the outlook for the oil market and why he thinks the European energy crisis is behind us. And we hear from Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, on the outlook for the global economy and whether the year-end rally still has legs.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:31 Update on energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:48 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Fed speak triggers a US Treasury rally – stocks have not reacted (yet)

Julius Baer — Wed, 29 Nov 2023 08:49:35 +0100

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller triggered the US Treasury market to rally by saying that he believes that monetary policy is tight enough and that the US economy is likely to pull off a soft landing. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views and explains where he sees the best opportunities to build fixed income exposure.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:59 US bonds update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

13:32 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investor sentiment buoyed on bets of an end to Fed hiking cycle

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 Nov 2023 09:00:37 +0100

While economic data prints out of the US showed signs of weakness yesterday, bets that the US Federal Reserve is almost done with its rate-hiking cycle, along with solid Cyber Monday sales, supported the broader risk mood in US markets. The US dollar fell further against its peers and is on course for its worst month in a year. And in the latest news from the world of crypto assets, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the developments at Binance.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:05 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Yields rise ahead of fresh inflation data, but equities remain ‘all green’

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:47:52 +0100

Yields rose across the board towards the end of last week, albeit in thin trading. Meanwhile, equities may be due for a pause before the rally continues into year-end - potentially an opportunity to add exposure. Markus Wachter of Technical Analysis explains why he prefers equities to gold at the moment.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:14 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

08:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Investors await US PMI data

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 Nov 2023 08:53:39 +0100

All the major European indices gained yesterday. Today, US PMI data is due. Pharmaceutical company Bayer has said it was unaware of the results of its blood thinner trial prior to issuing over USD 5 billion in bonds. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, gives us the latest insights into currencies and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:20 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:31 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

08:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Investor sentiment buoyed by mixed data and lower yields

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 Nov 2023 08:54:49 +0100

Global equities advanced yesterday as US Treasury yields briefly fell to their lowest level in two months. And in Europe, far-right leader Geert Wilders scores a shock victory in yesterday’s Dutch parliamentary elections. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on the gold market. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares with us the takeaways from the latest CIO Investment Committee meeting.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:16 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:56 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:45 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US Treasury auctions are of interest again

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 Nov 2023 08:49:01 +0100

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the fight against inflation is not over, with the focus now on the impact of wage rises, while the US Federal Reserve sees interest rates remaining in restrictive territory. Nvidia reported a strong set of results and Sam Altman is back as the CEO of OpenAI. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research, talks about a successful US 20-year Treasury auction earlier this week and why this is a positive for fixed income investors.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:10 Fixed income update by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

08:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US equities continue their march higher

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 Nov 2023 08:51:47 +0100

US equities rise on falling US Treasury yields and strong performances from artificial intelligence stocks Microsoft and Nvidia. The Bank of England governor warns that slower growth will not stop it from raising interest rates. Talk of more support for China's big property developers sends their stocks and bonds higher. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that quality growth will continue to lead the way, underpinning our preference for US equities. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about crypto assets as investors wait to see if the SEC will approve spot bitcoin ETFs.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:44 Equity market update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
08:22 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
11:00 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Big changes coming to OpenAI and in Argentina

Julius Baer — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 08:55:23 +0100

Last Friday, the board of OpenAI fired founder and CEO Sam Altman and appointed Emmett Shear, the former head of Amazon's Twitch game streaming site, as its new CEO. US Treasuries are on track for their best month since March, and Argentine voters elected libertarian outsider Javier Milei as their new president in a political upset. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, talks about whether small caps are finally starting to outperform large caps, bonds benefitting from the tailwind of lower interest rates, and gold's attempt to break above USD 2,000 an ounce in recent weeks.

00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:16 Technical market view by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

08:48 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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China and the US take centre stage

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 08:50:31 +0100

Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a positive visit to the US, while Alibaba Group withdrew plans to spin off its USD 11 billion cloud business and Apple is facing delays in developing its own modem for the iPhone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, gives his views on the latest developments in currencies and metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:01 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets boosted by encouraging US inflation data

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Nov 2023 08:59:30 +0100

The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices are all up more than 6% in November, with the Nasdaq climbing 9.8%. Stocks were buoyed further yesterday after US inflation data revealed a 0.5% drop in the PPI index for October. Markets in Asia were lower overnight following disappointing Chinese home price data. Good news came from the Presidents of China and the US agreeing to resume high-level military communication. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains why a little more patience is needed before copper prices go higher, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides the latest news from our Investment Committee.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:32 Copper update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:13 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets rally as US CPI retreats

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Nov 2023 09:03:07 +0100

Global equities rallied strongly, while US Treasury yields plunged after US inflation data surprised marginally to the downside, providing hope that the Fed has concluded its tightening cycle. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Strategy, gives an update on the volatility in the US Treasury bond market. And Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares with us his preferred sweet spots in the healthcare sector.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

01:03 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:20 US bonds update by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Strategy)

08:49 Healthcare sector update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

12:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets muted ahead of key US CPI data

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Nov 2023 08:49:21 +0100

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finished down by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively on Monday, whilst the Dow closed up just shy of 0.2%. All three indices seem set to open higher this afternoon, reflecting market expectations of a drop in US CPI to 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September. China’s gains overnight stalled as markets await a swathe of economic data and big tech results this week. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins the show today to update us on the latest in the crypto space.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:13 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The year-end rally continues

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Nov 2023 08:48:09 +0100

ECB President Christine Lagarde said that interest rates will have to stay high for longer. Weakness in Richemont and Diageo weighed on European equity markets on Friday. All sectors in the S&P 500 rose as the year-end rally in equities resumed, even as the University of Michigan survey showed a rise in long-term inflation expectations and the impact of higher rates on consumer sentiment. The JPY is trading at its lowest level since October 2022. US President Biden and China's Xi Jinping will meet on Wednesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his thoughts on the year-end rally, bond yields and oil.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:37 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets react nervously to Powell’s speech

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Nov 2023 09:01:45 +0100

US equities ended an eight-day winning streak on the back of a weak US Treasury bond sale and a more hawkish than expected speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. A cyber-attack forced the US unit of a Chinese bank to send the settlement of Treasuries in physical form to the counterparty. Siemens Energy is still negotiating for critical support as it faces a huge loss. Crypto assets rally on hopes of the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the US. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that FX markets are at the crossroads of many conflicting currents, but that USD weakness is still on the cards.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:13 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities continue to rally as Chinese data disappoints

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Nov 2023 08:55:56 +0100

As US Treasuries steady and investors anticipate a peak in interest rates, US equity markets advanced for the eighth straight session. And the latest Chinese CPI data hints at low-for-longer growth expectations in China. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the gold market’s reaction to the current geopolitical shock and the outlook for the precious metal.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:55 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Oil hits a three-month low and stock rally pauses as traders mull Fed ‘pivot’

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Nov 2023 08:46:51 +0100

Oil prices have fallen sharply over the past three weeks and are now at a 3-month low. Equity markets are contemplating whether the Fed will deliver a pivot in 2024. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides insights into the Bank’s view on high yield bonds, whilst Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, updates on the Q3 earnings season and the development of the year-end rally.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:31 Fixed Income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)
08:30 Equities update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
12:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US stocks hold on to gains as investors await new Fed-speak

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Nov 2023 08:50:05 +0100

US stocks managed to hold on to last week’s gains in yesterday's trading as strategists await the testimony from a number of Federal Reserve officials later this week. Investors are eager to hear their views on whether inflation is finally under control. And did you know that some see Bitcoin as a 'store of value'? Next Generation Research's Manuel Villegas explains.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:00 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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With the Fed likely done with rate hikes, the year-end rally is on its way

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 08:41:31 +0100

Friday's US non-farm payrolls report, which showed signs of a cooling US labour market, triggered a rally in equities and a fall in bond yields. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says that this rally is likely to have legs into year-end, not only in the US but also in Europe and especially Japan.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:32 Technical Analysis outlook by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

11:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Positive reaction to upside earnings surprises

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 Nov 2023 08:48:00 +0100

US equities are on course for their best week of the year. Apple disappointed with its earnings release after the US close. Companies that surprised to the upside have seen their share prices rise sharply since the end of the week. The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines but remains in inflation-fighting mode. Overall, global equities could be on the cusp of a year-end rally. Tim Gagie, FX/PM PB Sales Geneva, notes that there has been a shift away from the US dollar this week.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
07:17 Update on currency and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Central banks in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 Nov 2023 08:45:16 +0100

US equities and Treasuries were stronger after the Fed decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged and Jerome Powell hinted that the hiking cycle might be over. Today the Bank of England is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged, remaining at its highest level since 2008. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives his views on the latest developments in the energy sector, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office provides an update from the latest Investment Committee meeting.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:58 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
08:46 Investment Committee Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investor sentiment diverges ahead of Fed decision

Julius Baer — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 08:45:27 +0100

As inflation continues to retreat in the eurozone, consumer confidence in the US falls on worries around business conditions and the cost of living. And in Asia, disappointing PMI data is hampering the prospects of recovery for the region's exporters, while the Japanese Ministry of Finance declared it is on standby ready to intervene in currency markets to aid the ailing yen. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, shares his thoughts ahead of today’s Fed rate decision.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:00 Fixed Income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

11:57 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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US earnings recovery, European earnings recession

Julius Baer — Tue, 31 Oct 2023 08:51:30 +0100

With no major geographical escalation over the weekend, US equities rose on Monday, helped by companies such as McDonald's which surprised on the upside with earnings. In Germany, inflation is at its lowest since 2021, but on the flip side, it is the only developed market economy in recession this year. China's economy remains fragile and the JPY is weaker as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains below market expectations. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that while the US is in an earnings recovery, Europe is still in an earnings recession. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about bitcoin as it moves from a payment token to a store of value; the next signpost is whether spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the SEC.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:26 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:29 Q3 Earnings update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity strategy)

12:53 Crypto assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

18:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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The night is darkest before the dawn - it's make-or-break week for markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Oct 2023 08:47:17 +0100

The US yield curve appears stuck and the S&P 500 index is down more than 10% from its highs earlier this year. This week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, news of the US Treasury’s borrowing plans, employment data and earnings are all likely to determine the market's direction into the year end. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says that lows in sentiment often coincide with the lows in markets. And Luca Menozzi, Next Generation, talks about future mobility, a structural trend that is unaffected by the daily ebb and flow of financial markets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:26 Technical Analysis outlook by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:40 Latest news on self-driving cars by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research Analyst)

13:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets soothed by US GDP growth and tech earnings’ beat

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 08:47:32 +0200

Asian equity markets were stronger this morning and US futures are higher following better than expected US GDP growth and strong earnings from two tech heavyweights. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, gives his views on the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and Bence Boldvai of FX & PM Advisory provides insight into currency and commodity movers this week.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:45 ECB rate decision and ramifications for markets by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)
11:07 Update on currency and metals markets by Bence Boldvai (FX & PM Advisory)
14:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets dragged lower by lacklustre company earnings

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Oct 2023 09:01:09 +0200

While US new homes sales rose strongly, highlighting the remarkable resilience of the US economy, it’s the Q3 earnings season that continues to dominate investor sentiment this week. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about China's latest stimulus measures and what these mean for industrial metal prices. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides an update on Julius Baer's CIO secular outlook, an essential part of Julius Baer's investment process.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:55 What China’s infrastructure boost means for commodities by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:37 Investment Committee update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

17:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Earnings dominate headlines

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Oct 2023 08:49:37 +0200

US equities snapped a five-day losing streak yesterday, supported by slightly lower Treasury yields and solid earnings. In Europe, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, while in Asia, both China and Japan are planning to increase government support to help their ailing economies. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, joins today’s episode to outline our expectations for tomorrow’s ECB meeting and what it means for our fixed income strategy.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:49 ECB preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

09:51 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Lower yields, mergers and a crypto rally drive markets

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Oct 2023 08:39:51 +0200

Lower yields after 'things have gone too far', two mega-mergers and the earnings season in full swing this week have driven markets in recent hours. And bitcoin is back in the news after surpassing USD 35,000 overnight. Find out why Manuel Villegas, crypto analyst in our Next Generation team, thinks the crypto winter may be over.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:31 Digital Assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:12 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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S&P 500 – all eyes on 4200 points

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 08:44:24 +0200

In last week’s risk-off environment, the Swiss franc and gold have been the safe haven of choice for investors, while government bonds – another traditional safe haven – are showing weakness amid inflation and interest rate uncertainty. In other news, China's onshore equities are at their lowest since 2019 and Argentina faces another turbulent period ahead of the presidential run-off election on 19 November. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that a year-end rally could materialise if the S&P 500 index holds above the key 4,200 level.

00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:18 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:37 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Joe Biden requests more funding to support war efforts

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Oct 2023 08:54:39 +0200

President Joe Biden appealed directly to the American people to support funding for Israel and Ukraine's war efforts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US central bank is inclined to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting. Data from EPFR Global and Morgan Stanley showed that US and European fund managers have sold a net USD 1.6 billion of Chinese equities so far this month. As people are living longer but there is also an increase in the prevalence of various diseases, Damien Ng from the Next Generation Research team provides insights on the topic of extended longevity.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:42 Extended Longevity by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)

10:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Geopolitics dominates market moves

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Oct 2023 08:47:33 +0200

Mounting tensions in the Middle East and fears over elevated bond yields have sent markets into risk-aversion mode, as investors also try to decipher clues from the Fed around rates staying higher for longer. Yesterday, stocks came under pressure and oil gained as Iran stepped up its rhetoric against Israel. As investors flee to safe havens amid escalating geopolitics, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his thoughts on the main beneficiaries in currencies and precious metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:22 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US Treasury yields spike on robust data and waning safe-haven flows

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Oct 2023 08:52:27 +0200

A robust set of economic data from the US was enough to push yields sharply higher in recent hours, while safe-haven flows ebbed despite a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Financial markets are torn between geopolitical developments and a great start to the US earnings season. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, notes that central bank guidance on monetary policy has increased again.

00:00 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:49 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:35 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

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Risk-on Monday

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Oct 2023 08:47:50 +0200

The view that the conflict in the Middle East may remain geographically limited with little impact on markets was the leading narrative yesterday. US equities and, today, Asian equities rose on the resulting risk-on sentiment. A strong start to the US earnings season also helped to improve investor sentiment after a rocky weekend. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about how the macro headwinds for bitcoin are fading as the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF looks increasingly likely.

00:00 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:36 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:21 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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Geopolitics remain in focus as earnings season gathers pace

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 08:43:35 +0200

As the US and its allies stepped up efforts to prevent further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, safe-havens lost some ground and helped equity futures move higher. Meanwhile, the earnings season kicked off last week with some impressive results and is set to gather pace this week. In Asia, Chinese equities failed to benefit from the central bank’s liquidity injection and are suffering from renewed tensions with the US. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s episode to share his views on equities and commodities.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:10 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
08:51 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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US CPI leaves traders wondering about the Fed's future path

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Oct 2023 08:35:49 +0200

Although the latest US CPI figures were only slightly higher than expected, they were a welcome trigger for traders to take some profits after a few strong days. However, expectations for the first interest rate cuts in the US have been pushed back, reaffirming the market's current 'higher for longer' mantra. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, sums up an intense week for currency and metals traders.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:58 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets broadly higher ahead of key US inflation data

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Oct 2023 08:49:50 +0200

Equity markets are clearly anticipating a CPI report today that will show inflation slowing in the US, as most of the main global indices closed their sessions higher yesterday. China’s stock market was boosted by an announcement from Central Huijin Investment Ltd that they are increasing (and will continue to increase) their stake in four Chinese banks. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, puts the oil market in perspective in light of the ongoing geopolitical situation, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, explains why our Investment Committee continues to be bullish.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:47 Oil by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

10:41 Latest news from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Drop in Treasury yields helps stock markets

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Oct 2023 08:44:08 +0200

US Treasury yields posted their biggest one-day drop all year on expectations that the US Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, and as safe-haven demand for Treasuries increased. The fall in yields also helped equity markets. In Asia, potential new stimulus measures from China are improving investor sentiment and supporting markets. Oil, meanwhile, remains in the spotlight amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to shed more light on yields and what’s been driving them.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:25 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:27 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US Treasuries gain the most since March

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Oct 2023 08:40:42 +0200

The US National Security Council has announced a security aid package for Israel, and that more support will be announced in the near future. Treasuries jumped the most since March this morning after dovish Federal Reserve comments and the Middle East conflict fuelled a safe-haven rally. Chinese developer Country Garden has stepped up warnings that it's on course for its first ever default and has hired advisers, the strongest indication yet that the company is heading for a restructuring. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives his views on the oil market and the impact of the current conflict in the Middle East on financial markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:20 Israel – Gaza conflict and market implications by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

10:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Middle East conflict weighs on market sentiment

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 08:44:46 +0200

US stocks staged an impressive turnaround on Friday, but market sentiment is subdued this morning following the escalation in the Middle East. In response to the developments, oil and safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold surged. Meanwhile in Asia, China returns from its ‘Golden Week’ holiday, which saw tourism revenues rise while other consumption figures remained mixed. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis Research team joins today’s show to discuss US equities.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:14 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)
09:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Markets await the US non-farm payroll report

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 08:54:52 +0200

The market is focused on today's US employment report. Expectations are for an increase of 170,000 in non-farm payrolls last month, and any sharp deviations from expectations could potentially lead to big moves in financial markets today. There are reports that Exxon is buying Pioneer Natural Resources, which would be the largest acquisition of another company this year. The Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged at 6.5% but warned of inflationary risks. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives his views on the state of the Chinese economy and stock market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:34 China update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

14:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Gold isn’t glittering

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Oct 2023 08:41:39 +0200

Not such good news from the jobs market was good news for financial markets yesterday with US Treasury yields declining and US equities bouncing off multi-week lows. Longer-dated US Treasuries are experiencing losses similar to US equities during the dot.com crash in the early 2000s. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about gold and notes early signs of investors starting to capitulate after the recent drop.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:40 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets crumble on rising yields and political uncertainty

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Oct 2023 08:48:51 +0200

A single report of a stronger-than-expected US labour market was enough to trigger another sell-off in equities yesterday. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, puts rising global yields into perspective, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions, Geneva, says the rally in the US dollar looks a bit overdone.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:21 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:24 Latest from the FX markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets continue to struggle on weak data prints

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Oct 2023 08:51:53 +0200

Investor sentiment was dealt a further blow yesterday after manufacturing PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in the eurozone continued to weaken. The US managed to outstrip estimates, but remained in contraction territory all the same. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with the latest news from the digital assets world and the impact on crypto markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:02 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets breathe a sigh of relief as US government remains open for business

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Oct 2023 08:39:52 +0200

US futures raced higher this morning following a last-minute deal on Saturday evening to keep the US government open until at least 17th November. Bond yields are, however, further elevated over concerns of inflation, higher oil prices and how long interest rates will remain high. Chinese markets will be closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he is bullish on the US dollar and believes that we will see US stocks rally into year end.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:11 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

08:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks stage something of a comeback yesterday

Julius Baer — Fri, 29 Sep 2023 09:00:44 +0200

US equities have struggled in September, but staged a bit of a month-end rally yesterday after US Treasury yields fell back from 15-year highs. Meanwhile in Asia, hopes that China’s Golden Week holiday will boost consumer spending are helping sentiment, as is the news that US and Chinese leaders are in talks to meet. In commodities, oil continues to grab headlines, with Brent on track for its best quarter since Q1 2022. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show and outlines why gold has had a tough week and how the stronger oil price is affecting the FX markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:05 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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As Oil grabs the headlines … can the rally last?

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Sep 2023 08:52:42 +0200

Benchmark US oil prices rose to USD 95 a barrel for the first time in more than a year after inventories in the nation's main stockpile fell to critical levels. Meanwhile, the prospect of a US government shutdown is weighing on markets already jittery about higher rates. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research delves into the oil story and further expands on energy transition, whilst Nicolas Jordan shares the views from our investment committee on interest rates, inflation and whether we’ll see a bounce into year end.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:52 Energy update & Net Zero scenarios by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:39 Update from the CIO office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:32 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Fears of US yields rising further drag equities lower

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Sep 2023 08:46:08 +0200

September continues to live up to its bad reputation in financial markets, with equities down between 3% and 7% and bond yields continuing to rise. The Federal Reserve's insistence on keeping policy tighter than expected continues to weigh on markets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains how this could also be an opportunity for investors.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

05:57 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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European and US equity markets diverge

Julius Baer — Tue, 26 Sep 2023 08:49:03 +0200

Investor sentiment in Europe took a hit yesterday as concerns around interest rates staying higher for longer and renewed fears in the Chinese economy continued to daze markets. In the US, however, equities managed to snap their four-day losing streaks, shrugging off moves in the bond market. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the Bitcoin spot ETF saga and what this means for crypto markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:15 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Central banks rain on stock market’s parade

Julius Baer — Mon, 25 Sep 2023 08:44:06 +0200

Equity markets closed the week lower after comments from the leading central banks forced investors to realise that they will be stuck with higher rates for longer than expected as the war against inflation continues to be fought at the monetary policy level. Asia’s stock indices are facing their own challenges today as China’s property sector continues to implode. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, reveals what the charts say about whether September’s sell-off can be converted into a year-end rally.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:00 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

08:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Central banks made bonds sell off

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:56:32 +0200

This week, one central bank after another made it clear that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. As a result, government bond yields rose sharply, the US dollar strengthened and equities sold off. Only the Bank of Japan remains on a different wavelength, keeping its monetary policy as loose as ever. In Asia, the positive news is that China may allow the immediate transfer of investment-related funds in and out of the country, while India's government bonds will be included in a major global bond index. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the Swiss National Bank's decision not to raise interest rates was the most surprising, but also the most understandable. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, makes the point that good news on the economy is bad news for gold.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:22 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:32 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

15:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets fall after 'hawkish hold' by the Federal Reserve

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Sep 2023 08:51:37 +0200

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted at one more hike in the US this year and that rates will stay higher for longer than market participants had initially thought. Yields are higher and equities lower this morning, with only the US dollar shining. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, explains that the current expansionary US fiscal policy could make the Federal Reserve's job of balancing monetary policy even harder in the future.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:26 Latest news from the Investment Committee by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets breathe a sigh ahead of Fed decision

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Sep 2023 08:56:20 +0200

Amid rising pricing pressure in the energy sector, today it’s the turn of the US Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate decision. UK CPI data surprises to the downside, in a sign that sticky inflation is slowly starting to come down ahead of the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow. And our Chief Economist David Kohl provides his comprehensive insights on what we can expect from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:16 Central Bank meetings preview by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:42 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Fiscal policy is the elephant in the room

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Sep 2023 08:47:59 +0200

Markets are basically on hold ahead of the US rate decision tomorrow. The oil rally, which has the potential to raise risks to inflation, has us on tenterhooks in a week dominated by central bank activity. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why fiscal policy might now be more important than monetary policy in the US. He also delves into the Fed’s dots and what we might read from them.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:38 Fixed income update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Oil prices rise to a 10-month high

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Sep 2023 08:54:27 +0200

Oil prices hit a 10-month high on Friday driven by Saudi Arabian production cuts and optimism around Chinese demand. The Federal Reserve is debating whether to raise interest rates one more time this year and how much to ease rates in 2024. Rental costs in the UK have grown at the fastest rate in at least 10 years. There’s a busy agenda of central bank meetings this week. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis Research shares his thoughts on equities and oil from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:58 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

07:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Strong US retail sales vs ECB’s lower growth forecast

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Sep 2023 08:58:07 +0200

European equities rallied yesterday on the prospect of an end to the European Central Bank's tightening cycle even as the growth outlook was downgraded, while US equities rose on strong retail sales figures and Hong Kong equities gained on better-than-expected data from China. Arm's IPO was well received, with the stock rising 25% on its first day of trading; US autoworkers went on strike, affecting a third of the US auto industry; and today's biggest ever options expiration could bring some volatility back to the US equity market. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, points out that metal-intensive sectors in China are still struggling. Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office also joins todays show and discusses the investment implications of Europe, the US and China being at very different points in the economic cycle.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:26 Industrial metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
10:27 Latest news from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
13:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US CPI nudges higher as ECB mulls a hike or pause

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Sep 2023 08:53:22 +0200

Following yesterday’s US inflation data, which came in marginally higher than expectations, today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank to decide whether the unprecedented surge in eurozone inflation has fallen enough to warrant a pause in its tightening cycle. Our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, shares his insights into the European and US equity market dynamics. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, provides an update on currencies and precious metals.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:08 Equities: Eurozone vs US by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

08:30 Currencies and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

13:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tech stocks under pressure ahead of US inflation data

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Sep 2023 08:51:08 +0200

Tech stocks are under pressure after Oracle missed on earnings and gave a rather gloomy outlook and Apple's 'Wonderlust' event failed (so far) to inspire investors' imagination. With US inflation figures due today and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains why he remains positive that yields are peaking.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

07:08 Bond market / Research Calls update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Riding the tech wave

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Sep 2023 08:49:37 +0200

Stocks around the world are being boosted not only by expectations that the Fed will pause its rate hike cycle next week, but also by investors buying into technology stocks after recent weakness and on news from companies like Tesla and Apple. In Asia, sentiment in the property sector improved after a Chinese property developer in distress reached an agreement to extend the repayment on six of its bonds. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communication, joins us today to provide a few details on our next webcast, where we will revisit our Market Outlook. The webcast takes place tomorrow, Wednesday 13th September, at 10am CEST. You can register here: http://ow.ly/rslb104TSK1

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:20 Market Outlook Update webcast details by Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)
08:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A positive end to a losing week

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Sep 2023 09:05:22 +0200

Investors breathed a small sigh of relief on Friday as European and US equity markets halted their losing streak, closing the day, if not the week, marginally higher. Recent economic data in the US has reignited rate hike fears. This Thursday we will find out what the ECB will do. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank governor boosted the yen and government bond yields as he signalled that an end to negative interest rates might be on the cards. Markus Wachter tells us why technicals are pointing to a year-end stock rally.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:17 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

09:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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When is an apple not an apple? When it’s a spanner of course!

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Sep 2023 08:54:12 +0200

Yes, Apple Inc. was the spanner in the equity markets’ works yesterday. In all fairness, it was actually the Chinese government turning the screw on Apple, as it sought to broaden its ban on foreign technology further. As Apple‘s share price dropped for the second day in a row, the impact was felt most in the tech sector and saw the Nasdaq composite fall for a fourth consecutive session yesterday, closing down 0.89%. Data released on US jobs and labour costs also upset markets and has provided some ammunition for the Fed to keep monetary policy tight for longer. Meanwhile the US dollar maintained its strength. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, sums it up nicely today: “The dollar always trades at the level which suits the US best."

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:20 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:50 FX and metals update by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)

08:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Brent oil at a new high this year – quo vadis from here?

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 08:49:32 +0200

Good news on the US economy was bad news for US equities yesterday as increased interest rate expectations weighed on stocks. An expanded ban on using iPhones in China also weighed on market sentiment, and this is also spilling over to Asian markets that are a sea of red this Thursday. European luxury stocks were lower yesterday as Richemont’s chairman warned of the impact of high inflation on local demand in Europe. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, notes that brent oil at USD 90 is detached from fundamentals even as sentiment on the black gold has improved.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:07 Oil market by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

10:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities under pressure as bond yields, oil and the dollar all rise

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Sep 2023 08:47:06 +0200

After Saudi Arabia and Russia both pledged to extend their supply cuts until the end of the year, oil has rallied, pushing yields higher and interrupting the rally in equities. Meanwhile, Eurozone economic data continues to come in below expectations. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains what this means for the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next week.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:19 Next week’s ECB meeting by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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China optimism fades on weak data print

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Sep 2023 08:54:49 +0200

As sluggish demand continues to plague the Chinese economy, investor sentiment takes a renewed hit on more disappointing data out of China. Today’s Caixin PMI data shows that China's services activity in August expanded at the slowest pace in eight months, with stimulus efforts so far unable to kickstart consumption. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on the latest from the world of digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:46 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Economic stimulus from China boosts equities

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Sep 2023 08:46:37 +0200

After US labour market data drove up stock prices on Friday, today it is China and its government's measures intended to prop up its ailing economy that are driving market sentiment. In commodities, oil prices are trading at levels last seen in November on fears over supply cuts by the OPEC+ group and strong economic data from China and the US pointing to strong demand for oil. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is struggling after the US SEC said it was delaying decisions on Bitcoin ETFs for another 45 days. US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s show and talks about the US dollar, bond yields and investing in September.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:32 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
09:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Fed’s eyes on today’s US employment report

Julius Baer — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 08:55:10 +0200

The US employment report will take centre stage today and it could well impact the US Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. In China, authorities are continuing with their strategy of announcing not one big-bang stimulus measure, but rather many small measures, to help the economy. And the US Securities and Exchange Commission has again delayed the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs – this would be a big deal for the industry as it would allow investors to own Bitcoin like any other security. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that he expects the USD to soften a bit more from here.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:55 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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More data moves markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 31 Aug 2023 08:59:44 +0200

Lower-than-expected Q2 US GDP data yesterday added to investors’ hopes that the Fed might take a breather in its hiking cycle. Stock markets might have rallied in response but they are still set to end August lower. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data came out below the magic 50 mark, indicating the economy is still contracting, but some Chinese building and AI companies were given a boost by positive sector news. Meanwhile, UBS announced record-breaking Q2 results. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, explains that something does glisten more than gold (spoiler alert: it’s US Treasuries) and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis joins us to share what our Investment Committee makes of the ‘unbelievable strength of the US economy’.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:36 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:41 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A welcome cooling in the US labour market

Julius Baer — Wed, 30 Aug 2023 08:47:50 +0200

The cooling of the US labour market suggests that the US Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike cycle in September. This sent equity prices soaring yesterday, while government bond yields fell substantially. In China's latest state-led measures, the country's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. Bitcoin is also back in the headlines as a new ruling by a federal court in the US has given the green light for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. In today's episode, Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his views on the impact of central bank comments on bond markets and explains why we are now less convinced about the emerging market segment of the bond market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:41 Bond markets – what’s changed? by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets upbeat ahead of economic data releases

Julius Baer — Tue, 29 Aug 2023 08:47:41 +0200

Global equities advance as investors continue to ponder central bankers’ comments at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week and ahead of a series of key data releases later this week. Shop price inflation in the UK fell sharply to 6.9% in August reflecting hopes that this slowing in the pace of rising prices is a sign that UK households may soon be over the worst of the sharp squeeze on living standards. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, talks about the resilience of the US economy and shares with us where he thinks monetary policy will go from here.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:07 Jackson Hole review by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stock markets rally on careful central bankers and China news

Julius Baer — Mon, 28 Aug 2023 08:55:58 +0200

After central bankers delivered no surprises to markets at Jackson Hole, equities are rallying this morning led by Chinese on-shore stocks, which are rising on the back of the new measures announced to lure investors back into the ailing stock market. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the uptrend for stocks remains intact.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:23 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

10:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Everyone’s waiting for Jerome Powell

Julius Baer — Fri, 25 Aug 2023 08:54:47 +0200

US stock markets stumbled yesterday as strong results from blockbuster Nvidia failed to boost the broader stock market and as investors seemed nervous ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The negative sentiment spread to the Asia-Pacific region overnight. In other news, the BRICS group announced plans to increase its number of members, which could well lead to some complicated geopolitics going forwards. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he comments on the major developments in the FX and metals markets.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:45 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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AI optimism drives stock markets higher

Julius Baer — Thu, 24 Aug 2023 08:49:29 +0200

Nvidia delivered sterling results yesterday, topping analysts’ expectations for earnings per share, revenue and the forecast for quarterly sales. Stock markets globally rallied with tech and AI stocks benefitting disproportionately. US treasuries stabilised in Asian trading, having recovered some ground in the US session on Wednesday following softer-than-expected PMI data. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, provides insights into the current ups and downs of European energy prices and Nicolas Jordan shares how our Investment Committee expects the Jackson Hole Symposium to unfold.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:59 European energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:08 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US stocks hampered by rising bond market yields

Julius Baer — Wed, 23 Aug 2023 09:00:58 +0200

US equities fell further yesterday, weighed by concerns over rising Treasury yields ahead of a key speech later this week from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares with us his recommendations on how to tackle the current environment in bond markets. And in a special contribution from Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, we talk about the latest developments in China.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:56 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:57 Latest developments in China (pre-recorded): Helen Freer (Investment Writing) and Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

11:26 China: Triggers for latest economic concerns

13:09 China: Impact of Chinese deflation

14:36 China: Explanation of recent rate decisions

15:43 China: Support for the property sector

17:29 China: Increase in risks to growth?

18:47 China: Our current investment philosophy

19:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Tech stocks rally despite rise in bond yields

Julius Baer — Tue, 22 Aug 2023 08:40:55 +0200

The sell-off in US bond markets resumed yesterday, pushing yields on typical Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) up to levels not seen in years. Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied on optimistic earnings reports, which is particularly interesting as they have historically struggled in a high interest rate environment. In Asia, Japanese yields also surged, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Japan could launch an unscheduled bond-buying operation. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins today’s episode with his views on the latest news on digital assets.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:25 Latest news on digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

08:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Rate cuts in China fail to improve sentiment

Julius Baer — Mon, 21 Aug 2023 08:42:25 +0200

Banks in China have cut their short-term lending rates, but markets are disappointed having expected more. Meanwhile, fixed income investors are looking for clues on monetary policy at this week's Jackson Hole conference. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, sees the market rout in August as a consolidation only.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:45 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US bond yields rose to their highest since 2007

Julius Baer — Fri, 18 Aug 2023 08:52:55 +0200

Higher bond yields in developed markets are spooking equity markets, but some on the bond side see the higher yields as too attractive to miss out on. Services prices in Japan rose at the fastest annual rate since 1993. China is pushing hard against a weaker yuan. Bitcoin drops like a stone on a report that Elon Musk's SpaceX company has sold the digital asset. A big options expiration day could explain some sharp moves in the US today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s podcast and he notes that the British Pound has a big interest rate advantage over the CHF.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:32 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Encouraging signs from the US do little to pacify investors

Julius Baer — Thu, 17 Aug 2023 08:55:43 +0200

Strong economic data out of the US highlighting the country’s resilience contrasts with an increasingly worrying picture in China and economic woes in Europe. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals in the context of developments in China. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares with us the latest decisions from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:59 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:46 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

15:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China and interest rates weigh on sentiment

Julius Baer — Wed, 16 Aug 2023 08:49:51 +0200

Equity markets are pricing in a new reality in which US interest rates will stay higher for longer and China will no longer be a growth engine for the global economy. This has implications for investors, as Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains: "The momentum for higher yields in the US has increased”.

00:14 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:19 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:27 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

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China cuts, the Fed is done, and the Bank of England has one more hike to go

Julius Baer — Tue, 15 Aug 2023 09:10:34 +0200

China's central bank has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate due to weakness in its economy and it being on the brink of deflation, while Japan's economy accelerated in the second quarter on a surge in exports. In the US, artificial intelligence stocks led a market rally in technology stocks, while small caps traded at their lowest level in a month. Argentina was forced to devalue its currency by 18% and hiked its key interest rate by 21% after an election upset, while the Bank of Russia is meeting as the Russian ruble fell below 100 per USD. David Kohl, Chief Economist, said that the US Federal Reserve has completed its tightening cycle, while the Bank of England only has one more rate hike of 0.25% to go.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:47 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:35 Outlook for Fed and Bank of England by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Asia-Pacific markets lower on fresh concerns over China's shadow banking sector

Julius Baer — Mon, 14 Aug 2023 08:48:57 +0200

Asia Pacific markets are trading lower this morning after reported liquidity concerns at one of China's largest private wealth managers. A team at Goldman Sachs are expecting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of June next year. Markus Wachter from the Technical Analysis Research team provides a technical insight on oil, precious metals and US and European stocks.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:05 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

08:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Market rally proves short-lived after Fed warning

Julius Baer — Fri, 11 Aug 2023 08:46:48 +0200

The rally across markets faded into the end of trading as Fed officials warned that the battle against inflation is not yet won, despite a benign US inflation report for July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what the latest inflation data means for currencies and metals.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:27 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US inflation and US investment restrictions in China in focus

Julius Baer — Thu, 10 Aug 2023 08:58:15 +0200

A down day for US equities yesterday may not be so telling ahead of today’s all-important US inflation data release. The Italian government qualified the extent of its windfall tax on excess profits of banks; a US 10-year Treasury auction was well received; the US announces new restrictions on investments in key sectors in China; China is allowing group travel to key countries again; and oil, natural gas, and rice prices are all on the rise – so plenty to talk about on a peak summer day. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about China being in a balance sheet recession, the benign US economic picture, and that a consolidation in the US equity advance may not be such a bad thing.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:39 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China CPI and PPI figures prompt fears of deflation

Julius Baer — Wed, 09 Aug 2023 08:47:05 +0200

Investor sentiment in Asia-Pacific takes a hit after China’s CPI and PPI data for July fell in tandem for the first time since November 2020, indicating deflation pressure amid weakening demand. And in a bid to restore calm to its financial system, Italy caps its new tax on banks' windfall profits at 0.1% of the firms’ assets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on fixed income markets and shares his expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI print.

00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:54 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:19 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Asia-Pacific markets mixed after worse-than-expected China trade data

Julius Baer — Tue, 08 Aug 2023 08:49:11 +0200

Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning after China reported trade data that showed a worse-than-expected decline in imports and exports. US markets closed higher on Monday, despite Moody's Investors Service downgrading ten small and mid-sized US banks. The Italian government approved a surprise tax on the ‘extra profits’ of banks this year, which could bring in over EUR 2 billion to the state. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:17 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

07:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Earnings season draws to a close - inflation data to dominate markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 07 Aug 2023 08:48:18 +0200

Equities had one of their worst weeks in months, but most market participants believe this was due to profit taking rather than a significant change in the investment environment. The US employment report triggered a rally in US Treasuries - the entire yield curve has shifted significantly lower. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis shares his thoughts on the direction of both equities and yields in the coming months.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:51 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

10:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The Bank of England hikes too

Julius Baer — Fri, 04 Aug 2023 08:49:35 +0200

The Bank of England is the latest major central bank to raise interest rates in the face of high inflation figures. Elsewhere, earnings reports are pushing equities in one direction or the other, but US non-farm payrolls are the main focus for investors today. In Asia, China has pledged further support for the private sector and capital markets, while Hong Kong opens its doors to crypto. Also joining today’s show is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, who shares his thoughts on the Bank of England's latest decisions and other major developments in the FX markets.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:05 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

13:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Bank of Japan intervention for the second time this week

Julius Baer — Thu, 03 Aug 2023 08:52:57 +0200

The Bank of Japan intervened in the bond market for the second time this week in an effort to slow gains in benchmark sovereign bond yields. ADP data showed private sector job gains in the US totalled 324,000 in July outstripping expectations, driven by a jump in the services sector. And Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, provides an update on how the Q2 earnings season is progressing.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:37 Q2 Earnings season update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)

07:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Fitch's US downgrade proves a blow to sentiment

Julius Baer — Wed, 02 Aug 2023 08:53:53 +0200

Mixed US jobs data, a string of underwhelming earnings reports, another lower-than-expected reading on US manufacturing activity and Fitch's surprise downgrade of US sovereign debt are weighing on markets today. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research comments on the latest twists and turns in the fixed income markets.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:58 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:26 Central Bank actions last week and this week by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

12:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets focus on economic data and earnings

Julius Baer — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 08:48:56 +0200

On this last day of July, investors this morning are still digesting last week’s central bank actions and assessing the latest supportive government measures from China. In commodities, oil – although trading lower this morning – is broadly supported and on track for its biggest monthly gain in over a year. In equities, more earnings reports and a slew of economic data releases could drive this week’s market action. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s episode with his views on yields and equity markets.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:17 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
08:28 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets dominated by central banks

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Jul 2023 08:52:41 +0200

After the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and the European Central Bank followed suit, it was the Bank of Japan’s turn to announce its policy decisions this morning. While leaving its monetary policy unchanged, it signalled a loosening of its yield curve control, and this has caused volatility in the markets. Meanwhile, economic and labour market data from the US continues to signal strength, leading some to question whether the Fed will raise rates again. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he reports on the latest developments in FX markets with a focus on the currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:49 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

07:35 Mid-Year Market Outlook - FX market update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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It’s rate hike week

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Jul 2023 08:50:47 +0200

Yesterday the US raised rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations, and gave no hints as to whether a further hike will take place on September 20th. Markets took the news in their stride and Asian stocks rallied this morning. Today it’s the ECB’s turn and they are also expected to raise rates by 25bps. With oil settling above USD 80 a barrel, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on where the bullishness is coming from, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the latest views from the CIO Office.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:46 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:28 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
09:57 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
12:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Earnings results drive share prices ahead of key policy meetings

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Jul 2023 08:44:05 +0200

Earnings results from the big tech companies are keeping investors on their toes as they wait for more colour on the interest rate decisions due today in the US and tomorrow in the Eurozone. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research talks us through his expectations and makes the case for peripheral eurozone sovereign debt.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:13 European Peripheral Government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Latest data points to economic slowdown

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Jul 2023 08:52:15 +0200

The latest purchasing managers' indices for July from Europe and the US point to a slowdown in economic activity in both regions. Investors are now turning their attention to this week's interest rate decisions and any clues as to the future path of interest rates. In addition to economic data, earnings reports and corporate news are also driving equity markets. In the Asia-Pacific region, news that China is planning further stimulus measures has given hope and lifted stock prices in the region. Joining today's show are David Kohl, our Chief Economist, who revisits our currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the current earnings season.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:26 Mid-year Market Outlook – currencies by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

15:05 Q2 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

18:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Nasdaq ends down on big volumes while Europe sees some unexpected winners

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Jul 2023 08:41:28 +0200

The outcome of the Spanish elections came as a surprise and is causing uncertainty among investors. Equity markets have generally performed well of late, with the exception of the Nasdaq, which fell slightly on Friday on heavy volumes ahead of rebalancing. However, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, remains positive on equities, and particularly the Nasdaq.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:49 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:34 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US labour market continues to show strength

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Jul 2023 08:51:08 +0200

The US labour market continues to send out strong signals, which could be crucial for consumer spending and avoiding a recession this year. Meanwhile, disappointing results from some tech giants are weighing on the markets, raising the question of whether the recent rally has gone too far. Elsewhere, some commodity-related news is hitting the headlines, pushing commodity indices higher for the week. Manuel Villegas, from Next Generation Research, talks about Bitcoin’s supply mechanisms and what factors could start off Bitcoin’s next rally.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:01 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Netflix and Tesla spoil the after markets party

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 08:55:35 +0200

European stocks closed higher yesterday after UK inflation came in at its lowest level in 15 months. US markets also closed higher but futures fell stateside after both Tesla (record quarterly revenue but lower margins) and Netflix (revenue miss) reported Q2 results. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China surprised traders as it stepped in harder than expected to support the yuan, and Japan delivered its first trade surplus in nearly two years. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains the impact of China’s recent data releases on the industrial metals market.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:52 Industrial metals and China by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks are up and yields are down as risk-on sentiment takes over

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Jul 2023 08:46:39 +0200

After a somewhat sluggish start to the month, equities and bonds have picked up momentum in recent sessions, driven by positive earnings reports and lower yields. Dario Messi from our Fixed Income Research department explains why he remains positive on one of our core ideas in a risk-on environment: emerging market hard currency bonds.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

01:00 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:47 Impact of China’s stuttering economy on emerging market bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Asia-Pacific markets mixed after downgrade to China's growth forecast

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Jul 2023 08:57:27 +0200

US markets closed higher on Monday with the technology, financials and industrials sectors outperforming. Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning, as China's sluggish economic recovery has led to a downgrade in growth forecasts. In response, China has unveiled an 11-point package of measures to support household spending. Microsoft has moved closer to completing its USD 69 billion acquisition of Activision but the deal is not likely to close by today’s deadline. Thomas Caflisch, our Head of FX & PM Solutions, provides an update on the currency markets and Leonardo Pellandini, from the Equity Strategy Research team, reviews the Q2 earnings season so far.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:34 FX update by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)

06:50 Q2 earnings season by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)

10:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The USD’s worst week for eight months

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Jul 2023 08:46:40 +0200

In a week full of optimism that the Fed was getting closer to ending its rate hikes, global equities rallied. The USD could not hold its own and sold off sharply last week. China's Q2 growth figures out this morning disappoint and are weighing on local equities. In the US, the Q2 earnings season has kicked off in earnest, with the big US banks surprising on the upside on Friday. UnitedHealth's strong results are an encouraging sign for the defensive healthcare sector, which is lagging this year. More than 150 companies will report this week. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the USD has broken major support levels.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:06 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:46 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A successful week for equities

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Jul 2023 08:47:03 +0200

Global equities are heading for their best weekly gains since November last year after another set of lower than expected US inflation data. In Asia, optimism over policy support in China as well as the easing of some restrictions on artificial intelligence is supporting markets. Currencies have also seen some movement this week, with the US Dollar Index struggling. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his views on the latest US data and the likely path of the Federal Reserve.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:59 Assessment of recent US data and Fed’s likely path now by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Fed Funds Rate exceeds inflation for the first time in a long time

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Jul 2023 08:54:13 +0200

US equities rose, bond yields fell, gold advanced, and the US dollar dropped after US inflation data showed that core inflation fell to 4.8%. The lower inflation means that the real (inflation-adjusted) Fed Funds rate has turned positive for the first time in this economic cycle. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, talks about the clean energy investment theme, noting that it has become a victim of its own success. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, discusses the strong performance of the Magnificent 7 this year, highlighting that the rise of technology stocks is creating a positive performance backdrop for the broader equity market.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:37 Clean Energy downgraded to Neutral by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

08:52 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets steady ahead of US CPI data release

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Jul 2023 08:53:24 +0200

US markets closed higher on Tuesday with the S&P 500 seeing Energy, Utilities & Industrials all outperforming. Asia Pacific markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 trading lower and China's CSI 300 down 0.4% this morning, a sign that local investors would like to see more stimulus to support the ailing economy. Microsoft moved closer to completing its USD 69 billion bid for Activision. Dario Messi of the Fixed Income team highlights our strategy for investing in longer dated bonds and looks ahead to the release of US CPI data and the next FOMC meeting.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:16 Strategy for adding duration to a portfolio by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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China’s pledge to support property sector buoys markets

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 08:51:04 +0200

China has signalled that it will extend a number of policies and concrete economic support measures to support its ailing real estate sector. Asian markets are trading higher on the news today. And we hear from Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who talks to us about digital assets and provides an update on Solana.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:15 Digital assets update update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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A heavy data week gets underway

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 08:57:25 +0200

US markets closed lower on the day and the week on Friday after non-farm payrolls data indicated that the Fed might raise rates at their forthcoming July meeting. Inflation data coming on Thursday and Friday will complete the final piece of the rate-hike puzzle. Meanwhile China’s disappointing CPI/PPI data this morning has heightened expectations of more monetary policy support being required. As the Q2 earnings season is set to kick-off, hear what our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, has to say about the prospects for the US equity and bond markets.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:09 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity investors throw in the towel on strong jobs data

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Jul 2023 08:45:55 +0200

Equity markets have suffered steep losses in recent hours on the back of better-than-expected private employment data - today's official US non-farm payrolls report for June is likely to shed further light on the resilience of the US economy. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on how these figures could impact currencies and metals. And Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia, talks about where he sees the best investment opportunities in Asian equity markets at the moment.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
06:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:32 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Asian Equities by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Asia Research)

18:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets react negatively to Fed minutes

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Jul 2023 08:53:46 +0200

The Fed minutes released yesterday revealed some disagreement among committee members regarding the future path of interest-rate policy. After their June ‘pause’ it seems that members do expect to resume hiking rates but perhaps at a slower pace. US and Asian markets closed lower, with Asian stocks also impacted by the recent disappointing data from China. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, updates us on events in the oil markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan fills us in on our CIO’s current thinking.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:09 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:05 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China’s growth rate slows but our analysts still see sweetspots in equities

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Jul 2023 08:56:59 +0200

China’s services sector activity is seeing a deceleration in its growth rate, as some firms reported softer than expected market demand, denting investor sentiment ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China. And we hear from Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares with us his outlook for developed market equities in the second half of 2023.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:39 Mid-Year Market Outlook - Developed-Market Equity Strategy by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Asia-Pacific markets mixed after RBA keeps rates on hold

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Jul 2023 08:55:09 +0200

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep interest rates on hold. China has decided to restrict exports of critical minerals and electric vehicle manufacturers had one of their best days yesterday after Tesla and BYD reported strong Q2 electric vehicle sales figures. Manuel Villegas of the Next Generation Research team provides an insight into the latest news regarding Bitcoin ETFs.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:51 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

05:30 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equities - what's next after a strong first half of the year?

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Jul 2023 08:45:47 +0200

The Nasdaq 100 index had its best first half-year ever, up 39%, as the emergence of the artificial intelligence product cycle drove these and other major US equities higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield came within striking distance of 4.0% last week, and strong electric vehicle sales and talk of the first approval of a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF are also in focus this Monday morning. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis research, points out that equities are not only strong on their own, but also relative to gold and bonds.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:53 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Traders buckle up for an important set of inflation data today

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 Jun 2023 08:46:03 +0200

US Treasury yields rose yesterday on better-than-expected economic data, but stocks continued to climb the wall of worry. The all-important US PCE deflator figures for May will decide the fate of the markets on the last trading day of the half year. And there is a lot going on in the currency markets these days - hear what our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, Tim Gagie, has to say about the latest moves.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:41 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

14:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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More central bank rate rises on the horizon

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Jun 2023 08:45:04 +0200

At the ECB forum in Sintra, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey all said that they still have some way to go in raising interest rates to fight inflation. The 23 largest US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test. And both the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan are in focus as authorities worry about the weakness of their currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, says silver continues to move in gold’s slipstream.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:12 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Investor sentiment boosted by robust US data prints

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Jun 2023 08:43:49 +0200

A raft of strong data underscores the resilience of the US’s economy in the face of stickier-than-expected inflation. Investors will closely be watching the ECB forum today, when top central bankers will speak on a policy panel to discuss how to combat unrelenting inflation. And we hear from Roman Frey, Head of Fixed Income Investment Management, who shares with us why now is such a good time to consider fixed income.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:34 Implementing Market Outlook Fixed Income strategy by Roman Frey (Head of Fixed Income Investment Management)

11:01 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Tech stocks lead Wall Street lower

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Jun 2023 08:48:29 +0200

US stock markets didn’t have the best start to the week as tech stocks led indices lower. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer, falling more than 1%. But this bad start to the week needs to be put into context: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track to finish June more than 3% higher, while the Dow Jones is currently set for a monthly gain of nearly 2.5%. As rates starts to bite and their impact is felt, Dario Messi highlights which segments of the bond market should be in investors’ focus as we head into the second half of the year.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:57 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets calm amid geopolitical tensions

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 08:49:42 +0200

Markets are eerily calm this morning following the dramatic end to an armed uprising in Russia. This week marks the last week of trading for the first half of the year, so the first conclusions will be drawn with regard to market performance this year. The headlines this week are likely to include the ECB’s Bank Forum in Sintra, the release of the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator), and the US bank stress tests. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to explain the technical patterns in precious metals.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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No summer holidays for major central banks

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 08:55:25 +0200

Asian equities and European stock futures are in a sea of red this Friday morning as major developed market central banks go on inflation alert. However, artificial intelligence (AI) stocks continue to shine. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is falling again as traders look ahead to possible intervention to support the currency. In today's podcast, David Meier, Senior Economist, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, give their views on a range of currencies – from the British pound to the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real, to name but a few.

00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:56 UK Update by David A. Meier (Senior Economist)
13:44 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

18:31 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets lower as yields and data point to a slowdown

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Jun 2023 08:55:14 +0200

Stock markets are lower for the third day in a row as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message on monetary policy, and data points to slower growth ahead. And European natural gas prices are on the rise again - listen to Norbert Rücker, our Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, to find out whether he thinks Europe is once again on the brink of an energy crisis.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:52 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:47 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

10:09 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Investors caught between FOMO and a hawkish Fed

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Jun 2023 08:48:38 +0200

Global equity markets struggle ahead of US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual report to Congress today, when he is expected to reinforce the message that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on why investors should not be chasing the rally in high yield bonds. And Adrienne Järsvall, Head of Fund Advisors, shares with us why now is a good time to consider alternative investments.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:53 Don’t chase the high yield bond rally by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:16 Reasons to consider alternative investments now by Adrienne Järsvall (Head of Fund Advisors)

11:35 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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European markets lower with Asia’s markets a mixed bag

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Jun 2023 08:46:25 +0200

European markets fell at the start of the new trading week with investors nervous about the economic outlook. US markets were shut for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight as investors digested China’s central bank decision to cut its one-year and five-year loan prime rate. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping yesterday, with both sides pledging to stabilise their relationship. Hannah Wise joins the podcast today with details of what to expect when she hosts Christian Gattiker and David Kohl in the mid-year markets outlook webcast, which takes place at 10.00 CEST on the 27th of June.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:33 US growth and inflation by Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)

05:30 Preview of Mid-Year Market Outlook webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of Video Channels)

08:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A quiet start to a busy week

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Jun 2023 08:47:26 +0200

The main story this morning is the visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which has shown the first tentative signs of progress. However, Asian equities are still lower today as investors reset their expectations for further stimulus from China. Despite a generally quiet morning, the week ahead will be busy for investors with a total of 12 central banks due to announce their latest decisions and on the macroeconomic front, we will receive a number of leading indicators (flash Purchasing Managers’ indices).

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Equities up, USD mostly down

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Jun 2023 08:52:13 +0200

After a flurry of interest rate decisions by major central banks, global equities are mostly higher and the USD is mostly weaker - although it is rising against the JPY as the Bank of Japan remains on its lonely monetary policy island. The rally in US equities appears to be broadening, while Chinese equities are rallying on stimulus hopes. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses currency positioning as the USD has continued to weaken against most currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that simply stopping rate hikes is not enough for gold to shine again.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:41 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:07,5 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Fed pauses as it weighs impact of tightening cycle

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 08:53:18 +0200

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday and sees two small hikes by the end of 2023, as it deals with a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his thoughts on how the Fed will move from here, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides an update from our CIO’s Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:30 Comments on Fed meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:10 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rally ahead of likely Fed pause

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 08:40:59 +0200

The stock market rally extended yesterday after US inflation figures reassured investors. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but much of the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the press conference. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, expects some words of caution.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:35 Bond markets ahead of central bank decisions by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Apple at an all-time high

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 08:49:45 +0200

Apple closed at an all-time high and the S&P 500 index ended the day above 4325 points its intra-day high from last August and so a key level for technical analysts – the focus is now on today’s US inflation release. China’s central bank in a surprise move lowered its short-term policy rate today amidst faltering growth figures – the big question is now if more stimulus is to come out of the world’s second largest economy. Manuel Villegas Next Generation Research notes that investors in crypto should expect confusion and volatility ahead as the US regulatory environment remains treacherous.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:36 Crypto assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A big central bank week coming up

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Jun 2023 08:57:50 +0200

This week is a busy one with central banks around the world expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, including the US, Eurozone, Japan and China. There will also be a raft of macroeconomic data for investors to digest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to talk more about the VIX index hitting a new 3-year low and equity markets hitting a 52-week high.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

08:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A bull market in the US and the Swiss franc on a roll

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Jun 2023 08:41:47 +0200

The S&P 500 index in the US entered bull market territory yesterday, up 20% since its October 2022 low, on optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the time being. In contrast, a rate hike in Switzerland on 22nd June appears to be a done deal, setting the Swiss franc up for a rally, especially against the US dollar, as Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, explains.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:49 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

08:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Bank of Canada’s surprise hike spooks markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Jun 2023 08:45:02 +0200

The Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia by resuming rate hikes yesterday. Following the surprise 25-basis-point hike, US Treasury bonds sold off. India’s government bonds also sold off despite the central bank there not hiking rates, but the Sensex stock index is heading towards record highs. Japan’s government bond yields also rose following news that Japan’s economy grew an annualised 2.7% in Q1 this year, higher than the expected 1.9%. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the show to update us on the iron ore market, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides the latest thoughts from our Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:34 Iron ore update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

06:43 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:18 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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China in the spotlight this morning

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Jun 2023 08:39:49 +0200

Straight after the Chinese authorities asked the country’s largest banks to lower their deposit rates, China’s trade data disappointed, with both imports and exports falling. But at least there is some positive geopolitical news as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to visit China. Meanwhile, US equities enjoyed some support yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 2023. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins today’s episode to explain why we still love IT stocks.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:24 Why we still love IT stocks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

07:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US regulator files a lawsuit against crypto exchange Binance

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Jun 2023 08:48:58 +0200

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has sued cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for US securities violations. Our Chief Economist David Kohl talks about the risk of a recession in the US, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the digital assets space.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:42 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:48 What’s the chance of a US recession? by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
11:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

15:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US equity outperformance resumes

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Jun 2023 08:43:28 +0200

US equities gained on Friday on the back of the deal to raise the debt ceiling and a mixed bag of economic reports that suggested the Federal Reserve would hold off on raising interest rates at its June meeting. Saudi Arabia said it would cut oil production by an additional 1 million barrels per day after the OPEC+ meeting, while Turkey has a new market-friendly finance minister. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, points out that the outperformance of US equities has continued and become more broad-based.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:24 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rally on renewed economic optimism and debt ceiling resolution

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 Jun 2023 08:57:01 +0200

Although this week's employment data was generally stronger and US manufacturing remains under pressure, equities and bonds broadly rallied yesterday as the outlook for central banks pausing on interest rate hikes brightened. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about how this could affect the US dollar, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a guess as to which digital assets will dominate going forward.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:03 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:02 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

14:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Debt ceiling bill passes in the House with broad bipartisan support

Julius Baer — Thu, 01 Jun 2023 08:51:26 +0200

The US House of Representatives passed a bill late yesterday to suspend the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling. The bill will now pass to the Senate just days before Monday’s US default deadline. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on oil, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, shares the latest thoughts of our CIO’s Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:05 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

08:22 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Weak Chinese PMI prompts market selloff

Julius Baer — Wed, 31 May 2023 08:52:30 +0200

China's economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity slumped, prompting investors to sell stocks and call for more stimulus to boost growth. UK business confidence fell for the first time in three months as faster-than-expected inflation figures weighed on firms' sentiment about the economy. Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research provides insight into our views on both Greek and other eurozone sovereign bonds.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:00 Greek bonds back in favour by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US debt ceiling negotiations clear their first hurdle

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 May 2023 08:50:58 +0200

Futures markets have reacted with cautious optimism to the fact that President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement on a deal to raise the US debt ceiling this weekend. Nevertheless, they now face the challenge of getting the bill passed by the House of Representatives before 5th June. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Markus Allenspach, examines the deal and its economic consequences on today’s show.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:43 US debt ceiling update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

10:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Tech sector shines as time runs out to avoid US government default

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 May 2023 08:41:10 +0200

The tech sector rallied strongly yesterday, while other sectors and the broader market were flat to slightly lower. This followed the upbeat outlook on AI-related demand from the US chip developer Nvidia. Meanwhile, negotiations over the US debt ceiling increase are heating up as time is running out for politicians to find a solution. And Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about where he sees opportunities in currencies and metals.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

07:01 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Fitch move adds to pressure on markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 May 2023 08:54:06 +0200

US ratings agency Fitch put the United States’ AAA bond rating on negative watch yesterday, saying that the debt ceiling negotiations have raised the risks that the government could miss payments on some of its obligations. The impact was felt by the major US indices which all closed lower, but Nvidia’s surprisingly good results did provide a boost to Nasdaq futures later. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, joins us to provide an update on the natural gas market, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office gives us some insights into the latest thinking of our Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:51 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:30 Natural gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:12 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US debt-ceiling impasse dents investor sentiment

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 May 2023 08:47:19 +0200

Global equity markets suffer losses after continued US debt-ceiling negotiations ended without a deal yesterday. This increases the likelihood that the House and the Senate will both have to vote on a deal next week to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt obligations. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his insights into the eurozone’s latest flash purchasing managers' index data and what this means for the growth outlook.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:46 European PMIs and growth outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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No deal yet

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 May 2023 08:57:08 +0200

The US debt ceiling negotiations are still stealing the spotlight and while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden had a “productive” meeting yesterday, they have not yet reached an agreement. Markus Allenspach, our Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to explain whether he thinks a deal will be reached in time and why no-one can nail down an ‘X-date’ for when the US will actually run out of money. Hannah Wise, Business Journalist, shares how listeners can join our Beyond Markets webcast on Thursday about how to generate income in uncertain times.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:48 Update on US debt ceiling talks by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

9:28 Details for Forthcoming Income Generation Webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of video channels)
12:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Positive momentum in major global equity indices

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 May 2023 08:52:48 +0200

The S&P 500 is at its highest level this year and the German DAX index is at an all-time high. This week, the US debt ceiling, US & eurozone interest rates, and US-China tensions are likely to be in focus. China has announced that it will ban some sales of chips from the US semiconductor company Micron Technology, even as President Biden said he expected ties with China to improve very shortly. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, points out that there have been strong moves in the Nasdaq 100 index and the Nikkei 225 index.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:03 Technical analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

09:05 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks up and bonds down as sentiment improves across markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 May 2023 08:51:33 +0200

The S&P 500 Index is trading at its highest level in 9 months and US Treasuries are falling as the likelihood of an end to the US debt ceiling impasse has increased in recent hours. This has implications for the US dollar and metals, as Tim Gagie, our Head of FX and PM solutions in Geneva, points out. And Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the latest action in crypto-land.

00:14 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

06:29 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:33 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
14:39 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US debt ceiling and interest rate views in focus

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 May 2023 08:52:07 +0200

The S&P 500 closed down 0.6% yesterday. Comments from Federal Reserve officials on whether further interest rate hikes will be necessary in light of strong economic data releases, and the ongoing uncertainty over the debt ceiling drove equities lower. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides our view on the ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations, noting that we are working on the assumption that a last-minute deal will be reached. Richard Tang, Equity Research Asia, talks about the renewed interest in Japanese equities after Warren Buffett increased his stake in five trading companies and where Julius Baer sees the sweet spot in the Japanese equity market.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:32 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:20 Update on US debt ceiling by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:05 Japan – reopening and reform by Richard Tang (Equity Research Asia)
16:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US Treasury warns of catastrophe of a US default

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 May 2023 08:46:40 +0200

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US government will default on its payments by 1 June unless the debt ceiling is raised, putting pressure on Congressional Republicans and the White House to reach a deal. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research, shares her insights into the Turkish elections and the market impact, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on the copper market.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:48 Turkish elections and market impact by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

07:19 Copper market update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:03 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Markets dominated by politics

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 May 2023 08:45:25 +0200

US stocks barely moved on Friday. President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and other congressional leaders are planning to meet on Tuesday to discuss budget negotiations in order to avoid a US government default. In the Turkish presidential election, President Erdogan failed to win a majority of the votes, leaving him with 49.3% of the votes and his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45%. Mensur Pocinci our Head of Technical Analysis provides a technical update on Chinese financial markets following the steep decline in Chinese interest rates.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:14 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US debt ceiling, BOE rate hike, tech company news – a lot to digest

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 May 2023 08:58:51 +0200

From concerns about US regional banks to the US debt-ceiling debate, the Bank of England’s interest rate hike and the raft of news from tech companies, there are plenty of headlines for investors to absorb. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins today’s episode to shed some light on the latest developments in currencies and metals markets, and Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist, is here to provide an update on the earnings season.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:55 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:56 Earnings season update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategist)

13:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Inflation moderating in both the US and China

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 May 2023 08:47:38 +0200

Both the US and China have announced CPI inflation data in the last 24 hours and the headline numbers showed inflation moderating. The market reaction was muted with tech stocks being the main beneficiaries; the US dollar weakened, and US Treasuries rallied. Traders are now focused on whether a solution to the US debt default possibility can be found before 1st June. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the hydrogen market, and from the CIO office, Nicolas Jordan gives us an insight into what’s currently top-of-mind for the investment committee.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:38 Hydrogen by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

09:45 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Debt ceiling negotiations and regional bank weakness in the US

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 May 2023 08:52:25 +0200

President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans have made little tangible progress in averting a first-ever US debt default, but promised negotiations that would open the door to a possible deal. Meanwhile, the ECB has to do more to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as it waits to see the full impact of the measures taken so far. Fixed income analyst, Dario Messi provides an update on the high-yield view, and Roger Degen from the Equity Research team provides the latest news on US regional banks.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:17 Fixed Income strategy update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research Analyst)

09:11 Latest on US regional banks by Roger Degen (Equity Research Analyst)

14:09 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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US equities unchanged even as credit standards tighten

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 May 2023 08:47:07 +0200

US equities ended the day little changed on Monday, despite the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Survey showing tightening credit conditions for both households and firms, as well as declining collateral values. In a sign of confidence in Apple, the company was able to tap the bond market with a bond that matures only in 2053. All eyes are now on tomorrow's US inflation report. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, discusses the rise of meme coins and what market participants should make of them.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:54 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Risk sentiment improves across financial markets after a good set of data

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 May 2023 08:45:07 +0200

The trading week has started on a positive note with Asia Pacific stocks trading higher on improved sentiment after a solid US labour market report and the overall better than expected earnings season. US government yields are up on the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, but our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, still believes that the overall direction of US yields is down.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:53 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:10 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

08:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

We would love to receive your feedback! Please leave us a review and star rating wherever you listen to the show.

Rate hikes, earnings, banking turmoil – plenty to digest this week

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 May 2023 08:54:17 +0200

As if investors didn't already have enough to digest this week, with interest rate hikes from the major central banks and the ongoing earnings season, there was a fresh sell-off in US regional banks which only added to events. However, investors seemed to quickly regain their composure and this volatility just highlights the fragility of the market. With oil suffering some declines this week, Norbert Ruecker, our Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, joins today’s episode to share his view on the commodity.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:58 Update on oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

08:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Fed raises rates and hints at pausing its tightening cycle

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 May 2023 08:51:18 +0200

The US central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range as forecast. In his statement following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave hints that the Fed could now be set to pause its current hiking cycle. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on the outlook for the US dollar, and Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts of our CIO.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:33 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:42 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US Fed decision day

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 May 2023 08:47:28 +0200

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate to 5.25% today. However, with markets pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year, all eyes will be on the Fed's statement and Jerome Powell's press conference. Yesterday's sell-off in US regional banks and the ongoing debt ceiling debate will make his comments all the more important. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that US Q1 earnings are coming in better than expected, but the market reaction has been muted – one big exception: large-cap communications stocks, a sector he recently put on Overweight.

00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:51 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:11 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Markets on tenterhooks ahead of central bank decisions

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 May 2023 08:53:13 +0200

Central bank rate hike decisions are in the spotlight this week, but equity market sentiment has picked up somewhat in recent days. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on what the markets want to hear from central banks and why the risk of a US recession has increased. And Next Generation Research's Manuel Villegas explains why he believes that regulatory action in the crypto space is set to increase.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:38 Comments on latest US data by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

11:06 Digital Assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Analyst)

14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Tech stocks help markets shrug off fresh banking woes

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Apr 2023 08:54:41 +0200

While there are fresh jitters in the banking sector, tech stocks are lifting the broader market. Meanwhile, investors are digesting yesterday’s US GDP data while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation gauge – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator due out later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show to give his views on how central banks are impacting FX markets and he reveals which currencies looks like good value at the moment.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

01:09 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:28 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Big-tech corporate earnings reassure investors

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Apr 2023 08:49:53 +0200

With the Q1 earnings season garnering the attention of investors this week, big-tech earnings are helping to bolster sentiment amid lingering concerns about the health of US regional banks. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the recent rally in gold, and Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts of our CIO.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:54 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:33 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Further turmoil in the US banking sector

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:46:45 +0200

Just as the banking sector was recovering from the turmoil that engulfed it last month, First Republic Bank is making fresh headlines with its divestment plans. Meanwhile, the so-called FAANMG stocks have started their fair share of earnings reports, which showed that quarterly results were largely driven by their established search and cloud computing businesses, and they also used their investor calls to highlight what's next: Artificial Intelligence. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on US high yield and emerging market hard currency debt.

00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:33 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:18 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:14 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Low volatility in markets – but a lot of push and pull below the surface

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Apr 2023 08:58:52 +0200

While financial markets’ overall ups and downs remain rather muted, there is a lot happening on a single company level with about 180 S&P companies reporting this week alone. Listen to what Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist thinks about the current earnings season. And in addition, there is news about crypto regulation – Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research shares his thoughts about it.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:30 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:27 Earnings update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

09:30 Digital assets and regulation by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation research)

13:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

A big earnings and economic data week

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Apr 2023 08:45:01 +0200

On the earnings front, Coca-Cola and First Republic Bank, which has been at the centre of a crisis of confidence in mid-sized US banks following the collapse of SVB, will be reporting today. The major US technology companies will start reporting tomorrow, as well as SMI heavyweights. And on Friday the Bank of Japan meets, and the US Federal Reserve releases its preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, talks today about the major tailwinds supporting equities, but also the resistance levels worth watching.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:15 Technical outlook by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:24 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Downbeat US economic releases

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Apr 2023 08:51:38 +0200

US stocks fell and US Treasuries rallied after the release of disappointing economic reports and some weaker than expected earnings. March inflation figures from Japan were slightly higher than expected. Bence Boldvai, FX & PM Advisory, comments on the Yen and next week's Bank of Japan meeting, as well as other issues driving the currency markets at the moment.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:21 FX update by Bence Boldvai (FX & PM Advisory)

09:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Company earnings offer a mixed bag with a few surprises

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Apr 2023 08:52:31 +0200

With calm returning to financial markets, investors’ attention turned to corporate earnings. L’Oréal and Morgan Stanley came in ahead of expectations, while Tesla missed expectations, as it plans to further drop the price of its vehicles. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts from our CIO.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:47 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:46 Industrial metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:58 Our CIO’s latest thoughts by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Earnings in focus

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Apr 2023 08:52:10 +0200

The S&P 500 was flat on the day yesterday as there was a mixed bag of earnings. Although the VIX index, a fear gauge for US equities, dropped to its lowest level since the start of the year, a Bank of America survey nevertheless showed that global fund managers have their equity allocations at their lowest versus bonds since the Great Financial Crisis. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about the key take-aways form the earnings releases of large US banks as well as what to focus on as the earnings season continues.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:28 US earnings seasons expectations and review of bank earnings

10:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets eke out small gains – but the US dollar remains in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Apr 2023 08:46:37 +0200

Stock markets keep on climbing the wall of worry, with investors seemingly less concerned than equity strategists, as highlighted by major volatility indices printing new lows. Higher yields are probably one of the reasons for the rebound of the US dollar over the last two business days. Find out in today’s show where the currency is heading next, according to our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:09 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

08:22 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Inflation data and earnings season in focus

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 08:57:10 +0200

Economic data showing some easing on the inflation front has lifted equity markets around the world, but investors are now turning their attention to the earnings season, with some of the big US banks reporting today. In the bond markets, US interest rates have begun a consolidation process that could extend through to next week and into the pre-FOMC period of silence. David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst, join today’s show to share their views on the latest US inflation data and digital assets.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

05:03 Comments on US CPI and PPI data by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:47 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research Analyst)

14:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US inflation slows, raising prospect of further rate hike

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Apr 2023 08:53:51 +0200

Softening US inflation suggests the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, although its rate hike cycle may be nearing the end. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, explains why we are now upgrading the global communications sector to Overweight, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts from our Chief Investment Office.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

01:15 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:04 Global communications sector upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)

09:06 Our CIO’s latest thoughts by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Markets trade in narrow ranges before the all-important US inflation report

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Apr 2023 08:50:08 +0200

While Tech shares remained under pressure, closing down for the 5th time in 6 days yesterday, the rest of the market traded rangebound ahead of today’s main data point, the US inflation report for March. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on expected US inflation data and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM solutions talks about his thoughts on the latest ups and downs in the currency and metals markets.

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

05:24 Bond markets and likely impact of forthcoming inflation releases by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)

09:38 FX markets this week by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US labour market cools whilst China’s inflation remains muted

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Apr 2023 08:51:21 +0200

Non-farm payroll data out of the US on Friday saw hiring growth moderating and wage rises easing. In China, data published today revealed muted inflation as the consumer price index rose just 0.7% year on year in March, weaker than the 1% forecast. Investors are now watching out for US CPI figures (Wednesday) and PPI data (Thursday) for signs of whether or not the Fed is about to pause or even end its hiking cycle. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:47 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

05:24 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Rising recession risks keep markets busy

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Apr 2023 08:47:11 +0200

Stock markets are torn between the rising recession risks and expectations that yields will fall - defensive sectors have outperformed over the last few hours and US Treasury bonds have continued their impressive rally. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the surprise OPEC+ oil output cut, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO Office talks about how to tackle the current investment environment.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:15 What OPEC+ cuts mean for the oil market by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:48 CIO update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis)

11:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Stock markets wobble again

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Apr 2023 08:45:36 +0200

US stocks snapped a four-day winning streak yesterday as concerns about the banking sector and the broader economic outlook persist. In addition, comments from Federal Reserve officials about higher interest rates for longer are further dampening sentiment at a time when Treasuries are coming off one of their most volatile quarters ever. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to outline his views on fixed income

00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:35 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:14 Bonds and the risk of a credit crunch by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

9:36 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets mixed as investors assess outlook after weaker US factory data

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Apr 2023 08:53:13 +0200

US equities finished mixed in trading yesterday, as investors weighed the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing data against inflation concerns following OPEC+’s plan to cut oil output. Australian equities extend gains for a seventh straight day, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.6%. Our Chief Economist David Kohl provides us with the latest on Eurozone inflation and credit growth and we have an update on digital assets from Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:56 Eurozone inflation and credit growth by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:22 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

12:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

OPEC+ cut oil production

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Apr 2023 08:42:28 +0200

OPEC+ announced an unexpected cut in oil production of more than a million barrels per day, breaking its promise to maintain supply stability and introducing a new risk to the global economy. In company news, after completing its takeover of Credit Suisse, UBS is expected to reduce its workforce by 20% to 30%; and Tesla has fallen short of Elon Musk's long-term goal of 50% annual growth despite record first-quarter deliveries. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, provides some insights into the this morning’s oil rally.

00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:21 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure out today

Julius Baer — Fri, 31 Mar 2023 08:45:02 +0200

US large-cap equities had another strong day, and the Biden administration wants to strengthen banking regulation. China’s non-manufacturing PMI data release points towards the country’s economic recovery gaining strength. Yet, for trading action today all eyes will be on the release of the Core US PCE Deflator, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, at 14:30 CET. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, takes a closer look at gold after it has moved back towards USD 2,000 an ounce as of late.

00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:24 Gold in the spotlight by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Equity markets advance ahead of US core PCE deflator

Julius Baer — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 08:49:26 +0200

Global equities advanced yesterday, and investors are now turning their focus to tomorrow’s core PCE deflator data. The Bank of England has warned that the UK financial system urgently needs to be made more resilient. Nicolas Jordan from CIO & Strategy Analysis provides us with the latest from the Julius Baer Investment Committee. And we have an update from Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, on forex and precious metals

00:14 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:21 News from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

07:23 FX & PM update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:15 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Government bond yields rise as some calm returns to equity markets

Julius Baer — Wed, 29 Mar 2023 08:52:26 +0200

With nerves calmed, traders have started to reassess the odds of additional interest rate hikes in Europe and the US. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, explains why he believes in a comeback for quality growth stocks, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, highlights where fixed income investors can now find value.

00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap-up Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:07 The comeback of quality growth by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

07:50 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:50 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Investors looking past the regional banking crisis

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 08:54:25 +0200

With news of the prospect of further support from US authorities, there were signs of investors trying to move on from the regional banking crisis yesterday. The DJIA and the S&P 500 index both rose, although the Nasdaq Composite fell. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on the economic outlook and the impact of the banking turmoil, and then Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research analyst, provides an update on digital assets and the implications of tougher regulation in the crypto space.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:29 Monetary Policy transmission by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

07:53 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

12:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Markets still unsettled by banks

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 08:52:03 +0200

Whilst US markets closed last week on a high, Asian markets were more circumspect overnight and sentiment in China was dented by declining industrial profits data. Although it has been announced that First Citizens Bank & Trust Co is buying Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans, nervousness persists in the banking sector. In today's episode, our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, urges investors not to bottom-fish and explains why he’s watching gold and equities right now.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:21 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Stock markets held back by bank stocks

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 Mar 2023 08:56:37 +0100

Bank stocks have held down overall stock markets over the past hours as traders remain wary of further potentially disruptive news from the sector. Short-dated government bonds rallied after several central banks hiked rates yesterday. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, puts these moves into perspective and Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, summarises his thoughts on the week in FX and metals.

00:14 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:01 Central bank decision week by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:01 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

14:56 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Central banks all day long

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 Mar 2023 08:52:45 +0100

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the ninth consecutive time and signalled that additional increases might be forthcoming, prompting equity markets to tank. Today, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are likely to follow suit with increases in their respective policy rates, continuing their fight against sticky inflation. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research gives insights on Genomics and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis shares the latest news from the Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:00 Genomics – bright prospects by Dr. Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)

08:31 News from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:33 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gives equites a boost

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 Mar 2023 09:00:42 +0100

US equities rose yesterday, supported by comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the US government would step in again if smaller banks suffered deposit runs. Investors are now firmly focused on today's Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference - it will be interesting to see if the markets give the decisions a thumbs up or thumbs down. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, looks at the surprise write-down of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds following the UBS takeover announcement.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko & Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:28 Bond market update with a focus on AT1 by Dario Messi (Fixed income research)

11:29 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets breathe a sigh of relief

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 Mar 2023 09:00:39 +0100

The Credit Suisse ‘solution’ seems to have calmed global equity markets – with the major indices trading up in yesterday’s/overnight sessions. Regulators outside of Switzerland have been keen to clarify that shareholder capital has to be written down before AT1 debt, following the upset that has been caused in bond markets by Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds being written down to zero. David Meier joins the show to provide insights on upcoming SNB, Bank of England and US Fed rate decisions, and Manuel Villegas charts Bitcoin’s moves in the wake of the recent market activity.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

02:41 Fed, BoE and SNB meetings by David Alexander Meier (Senior Economist)

07:52 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:55 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Credit Suisse deal sends shivers through markets

Julius Baer — Mon, 20 Mar 2023 09:10:44 +0100

With the UBS take-over of Credit Suisse dominating all the headlines, both stock and credit markets are under pressure, the latter due to fears on deeply subordinated bond exposures, which the Swiss regulator called worthless in the case of Credit Suisse. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives some guidance on where support and resistance levels are across the major market indices.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) and Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:53 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

07:24 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

ECB hikes 50 bps and moves towards a more data-dependent approach

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Mar 2023 08:52:38 +0100

News that the biggest banks in the US said they’ll deposit USD 30 billion with First Republic Bank seemed to boost investor confidence yesterday and equity markets rebounded. All the major indices in the US and Europe ended the day in the green. Also yesterday, the ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points - our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on this and his expectations on the pace of rate hikes going forward. Finally, Tim Gagie, Head of FX and PM Solutions Geneva, provides an update on currencies.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:15 Comments on ECB decision by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:09 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Swiss National Bank to save Credit Suisse

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Mar 2023 08:50:33 +0100

Credit Suisse will borrow CHF 50 billion from the SNB and make a tender offer to buy back up to CHF 3 billion in Dollar and Euro-denominated debt. European Central Bank officials have a crucial decision to make today as they consider whether the market turmoil surrounding Credit Suisse is severe enough to derail a long-anticipated interest-rate hike. Jeremy Hunt's decision to inject more than GBP 20 billion into the UK economy may push the Bank of England to raise interest rates again. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy provides an update on European banks and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research shares his thoughts on the impact of the market turbulence on the gold and silver markets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:46 Thoughts on European banks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)

05:17 Impact of market turbulence on the gold and silver markets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:10 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

Markets finally turn a corner

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Mar 2023 08:58:53 +0100

US equity markets staged a rebound yesterday following the brutal selloff earlier this week, as traders see the worst of the US banking sector turmoil now behind us. UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will today unveil his first budget as the country battles a cost-of-living crisis and a stalling economy. And Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, takes a closer look at what the recent market developments and the latest US inflation print mean for bond markets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:09 Bond market update in the light of latest US CPI data and SVB by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:56 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) fallout continues to dominate markets

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Mar 2023 09:02:16 +0100

The major US indices closed lower yesterday with the exception of tech which managed to close higher. Asia also traded lower overnight. Traders and investors are now eyeing other banks to see if they have similar issues to SVB, and also mulling whether or not the bank’s collapse might lead the US federal Reserve to change their monetary policy path. All eyes will be on US inflation data later today. Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) and Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Office) join the show to inform us how the SVB collapse impacts crypto assets and give us the view on the collapse from our CIO.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:04 Digital assets & SVB by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

08:38 Thoughts on the SVB situation by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Silicon Valley Bank collapses

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Mar 2023 09:02:26 +0100

US regulators stepped in over the weekend to ensure that customers of the collapsed bank will have access to their insured and uninsured deposits. This is calming markets after last week's losses, with the S&P 500 set to open sharply higher and investors reducing bets on central bank tightening. In today's episode, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, looks at the level that the S&P 500 must hold to remain in an uptrend, which is 3,900. Roger Degen, Equities Research, provides more details on the US banking sector, noting that Silicon Valley Bank is not representative of the US banking sector as a whole.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:22 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:41 US banks by Roger Degen (Equity Research)

10:24 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Financials and the Fed driving the market

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 08:52:38 +0100

Wall Street suffered a losing session yesterday, dragged down by financials and concerns that higher interest rates could leave banks exposed to loan losses due to borrower defaults. Meanwhile, remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continue to leave market participants pondering how much the US central bank might raise interest rates and what the consequences might be. Today's guests are David Kohl, Chief Economist, who comments on the Fed, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his latest views on currencies.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:12 Comments after Powell’s testimony by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

06:07 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

08:15 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Markets digest Powell’s rate hike comments

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Mar 2023 08:54:05 +0100

After suggesting on Tuesday that the US Federal Reserve might be prepared to increase the pace of interest rate hikes again, in his testimony the Fed Chair Jerome Powell softened his tone slightly yesterday and said that policymakers would wait for more data before making this month’s interest rate decision. With investors considering what his remarks mean in terms of the risk of a recession, there were lots of twists and turns but no huge gains or losses in markets yesterday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on what this all means for the gold and silver markets, and Ronny Kaufmann from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team fills us in on the Investment Committee’s most recent thoughts and actions.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:52 Gold and silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:00 Investment Committee update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s impact on markets

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Mar 2023 08:47:12 +0100

Jerome Powell warned yesterday that the “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated”, which set in motion a sell-off in stocks and bonds and saw the dollar stage a rally. Asia (ex Japan) followed suit with the added downward impetus of a more-modest-than-expected China growth target. Equity strategist Leonardo Pellandini joins the show to explain why healthcare stocks deserve their ‘Overweight’ rating.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:40 Overweight healthcare stocks by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

07:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets rangebound before Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 08:58:21 +0100

The rally on equity markets fizzled out towards the end of the trading day in the US as traders started squaring positions ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s US Senate testimony later today. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, explains why the path of least resistance for European inflation data is lower, despite the latest data continuously surprising to the upside, and Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research shares his latest views on digital assets, namely layer 1 and layer 2 protocols.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:49 EU inflation data and impact on ECB policy by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

07:48 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

11:13 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

China sets a cautious growth target

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 Mar 2023 08:47:50 +0100

The annual National People’s Congress in China got underway yesterday and China has set a cautious growth target of “around 5%” for this year. With expectations now that demand may be softer than had been expected, iron ore, copper and oil prices all fell on this news. Eyes will stay on Beijing this week but investors will also be watching out for several economic data releases, including US non-farm payrolls figures due on Friday, and interest rate decisions including the last from the Bank of Japan under the current governor Kuroda. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:43 Markets from a technical view by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Interest rates could rise more than expected

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 Mar 2023 08:48:37 +0100

Interest rates could continue to rise in both the US and the eurozone. In the US, recent stronger-than-expected economic data has the potential to prompt Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated. Meanwhile in Europe, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council said that market bets on interest rates reaching 4% may be correct if underlying price pressures remain high. In Asia, China is on the verge of its most significant political reshuffle in decades, favouring politicians with close ties to the president. Timothy Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, explains where he sees opportunities in the currency market, and Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides the latest news on digital assets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:55 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

05:04 Digital asset update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

07:47 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Further rate increases needed to fight inflation

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 Mar 2023 08:56:02 +0100

Stock and bond markets fell yesterday as investors adjusted their outlook on peak rates after data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, talks to us about the impact of China’s re-opening on the iron ore market. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:00 Iron Ore view downgraded to cautious by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:09 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:07 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

A deep dive into our fixed income strategy and China

Julius Baer — Wed, 01 Mar 2023 08:56:50 +0100

Strong economic data out of China sent positive waves through the markets - certainly a nice change after February’s losses. In today's episode, Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research gives his view on what our new growth and interest rate forecasts mean for fixed income investors. This episode ends with Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, who shares his thoughts on the upcoming National People's Congress in China.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:20 Fixed income strategy update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:12 Upcoming National People’s Congress in China by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Positive US data releases again

Julius Baer — Tue, 28 Feb 2023 08:55:11 +0100

After three weeks of losses, US equities staged a minor advance on Monday as better-than-expected US economic data releases fueled the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative. This is also helping to push the US dollar higher for the first time in four months, even as ECB officials are also stressing the need for higher interest rates. David Kohl, Chief Economist, adds more colour to the growth and inflation dynamics in the eurozone and the US, and explains why we now expect further rate hikes not only from the ECB but also from the US Federal Reserve.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:37 US and Eurozone growth outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:38 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The post-Brexit deal and the fight between bulls and bears

Julius Baer — Mon, 27 Feb 2023 08:46:38 +0100

In preparation for an expected announcement on a post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meet today for final negotiations. In other UK news, the International Energy Week returns to London for the first time since the pandemic. In Asia, government investigations into environmental violations could lead to the complete closure of China’s lithium production hub. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update and talks about the fight between the bulls and the bears in the equity market.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:46 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

04:57 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data

Julius Baer — Fri, 24 Feb 2023 08:53:47 +0100

On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US is planning to make an announcement today about “sweeping sanctions”, while China has made a proposal calling for a cease-fire. The major US markets ended the day in the green yesterday, with technology the biggest outperforming sector, and today investors will be watching for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January. Bence Boldvai, FX and PM Solutions Zurich, provides an update on currencies, and Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research analyst, shares his thoughts on emerging market equities.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:23 FX update by Bence Boldvai (FX&PM Solutions Zurich)

05:42 Emerging Market Equity strategy update by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)

09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Fed indicates more rate hikes ahead to curb inflation

Julius Baer — Thu, 23 Feb 2023 08:52:02 +0100

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s February meeting show that ongoing interest rate increases are necessary to help stamp out inflation. The Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer is weighing on investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares his insights on the European Commission’s proposed reforms of European fiscal rules.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:52 EU fiscal rule reform by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:38 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Should investors be chasing the rally?

Julius Baer — Wed, 22 Feb 2023 08:51:26 +0100

Concerns about higher interest rates and the state of the consumer continue to weigh on market sentiment. Meanwhile, on the political front, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his first state of the nation address in almost two years, which made for some headlines. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Research Analyst, gives his view on whether investors should chase this year's stock market rally.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:15 Recent rally vs. fundamentals by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

06:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Geopolitics in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Tue, 21 Feb 2023 08:48:21 +0100

As Turkey faces yet another series of devastating earthquakes, geopolitics remain at the forefront of investors’ minds this week. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev yesterday, while UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is trying to win support for a post-Brexit deal. Meanwhile in China, the world’s biggest miner reported its lowest half-year profit since 2021, as the country’s economic slowdown hit demand for iron, copper and coal. Luca Menozzi from Next Generation Research provides insight into ChatGPT and the search engine market.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:48 Digital Disruption: ChatGPT by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research)

06:08 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Positive momentum to keep on pushing equity markets higher

Julius Baer — Mon, 20 Feb 2023 08:58:10 +0100

While US bond and equity markets will remain shut today, due to President’s Day, Asian markets have started the trading week on a strong note with the China reopening trade gaining steam again. Also, Europe’s equity markets are likely to trend further up, extending their recent outperformance. And it is far too early to write off the US stock market as Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains in today’s Moving Markets podcast.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:22 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

05:53 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Fed comments dampen sentiment

Julius Baer — Fri, 17 Feb 2023 08:45:14 +0100

Market sentiment has soured after two Federal Reserve officials said they may favour bigger interest rate hikes to combat persistently high inflation. Investors subsequently raised their expectations of how far the Fed will raise rates, dragging down markets around the world. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on the regulation of digital assets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:58 Digital assets - regulation by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:59 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Stocks shrug off retail sales data

Julius Baer — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 08:52:56 +0100

A higher-than-expected January retail sales number in the US yesterday did nothing to spur the stock market rally, with all the major indices ending the day in the green. Asia followed suit. The next data point is US jobless claims due out today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains his call on where gold goes from here, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the latest Investment Committee thinking and decisions.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:16 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:48 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

08:29 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Inflation still bothersome

Julius Baer — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 08:54:12 +0100

In the US, Federal Reserve officials are stressing that they might need more interest-rate increases to help tame inflation but they are expressing differing views about how close they are to stopping after new data showed signs that inflation is not falling as quickly as hoped. Meanwhile, the European Union is poised to force banks to report information on Russian Central Bank assets as part of the bloc’s latest sanctions package targeting Moscow for its war in the Ukraine. Dario Messi from Fixed income Research gives his insights on US inflation data and the bond market's reaction.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:03 US inflation data and the bond market's reaction by Dario Messi (Fixed income Research)

06:29 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Kazuo Ueda nominated as the new Governor of the Bank of Japan

Julius Baer — Tue, 14 Feb 2023 08:56:58 +0100

The major markets across the US and Europe all ended the day in the green yesterday. All eyes will be on the US inflation report due out later today, where investors will be assessing the implications of the latest data on future Fed policy. Kazuo Ueda was officially nominated as the new Governor of the Bank of Japan, replacing Haruhiko Kuroda. David Alexander Meier, Senior Economist at Julius Baer, shares his expectations from the Bank of Japan in light of this new appointment.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:11 Bank of Japan / JPY by David Alexander Meier (Economic Research)

07:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US inflation – make or break for markets?

Julius Baer — Mon, 13 Feb 2023 08:50:45 +0100

All eyes will be on the release of the January US inflation report this Tuesday, and it could well shape market action this week. Yet, it is not all macroeconomics – earnings season too remains in full swing with major companies reporting this week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about why the golden cross technical pattern, which can be observed currently, supports the case for investing in equities.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:40 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

05:16 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Negative market sentiment at the end of the week

Julius Baer — Fri, 10 Feb 2023 08:51:57 +0100

Investors are beginning to adjust to the prospect of higher interest rates, dragging down markets around the world. Meanwhile, job cuts in the tech sector continue, with Yahoo being the latest big tech name to announce layoffs. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research analyst, provides an update on digital assets with a special focus on Uniswap.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:25 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

06:29 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Hawkish comments hit sentiment

Julius Baer — Thu, 09 Feb 2023 08:59:15 +0100

US equity markets fell yesterday as investors digested comments from four Federal Reserve officials that the Fed needs to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation. European markets were mixed, while Turkey’s stock exchange suspended trading for the first time in 24 years in the wake of the tragic earthquakes there. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the oil market; Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, explains his preference for European banks over US banks; and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:56 Oil market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

06:37 European banks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

09:12 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

11:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Yet more comments from Jerome Powell

Julius Baer — Wed, 08 Feb 2023 08:51:22 +0100

A week after delivering a 25 basis point interest rate hike, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell welcomed disinflation yesterday, but warned that if we see stronger labour reports, or signs that inflation is creeping back in then “it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more than is currently priced in”. The US equity markets dithered about which way to go during his speech but closed higher on the day as they focused on the disinflation comment, with a particularly strong showing from tech stocks. David Kohl, Chief Economist delivers his thoughts on what happens with US interest rates now.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:51 Latest update from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

06:42 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Yields rise ahead of Jerome Powell speech today

Julius Baer — Tue, 07 Feb 2023 08:53:33 +0100

Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak today with Investors eagerly awaiting his remarks. Rishi Sunak will appoint a new Conservative Party chair, after he sacked Nadhim Zahawi over a tax scandal more than a week ago. The Australian Dollar extended its gains and bonds fell after the central bank raised its key rate to the highest in 10 years. Sophie Altermatt, from Macro & Next Generation Research gives us insights about Chinas economic recovery and Eric Mac from Research Hongkong provides an update on Asian tourism.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:45 China recovery by Sophie Altermatt (Macro & Next Generation Research)

05:40 Asian tourism by Eric Mak (Research Hong Kong)

08:15 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

Markets under pressure due to renewed geopolitical tensions and US data

Julius Baer — Mon, 06 Feb 2023 08:57:00 +0100

Equities as well as bonds are trading lower this morning, with renewed tensions between the US and China over an alleged spy balloon and US payrolls and the latest ISM report threatening the common narrative of US interest rates peaking. However, from a technical perspective, US stock markets are showing plenty of positive momentum, as our Head of Technical Analysis Mensur Pocinci explains. The Japanese yen is under pressure following the rumoured appointment of Masayoshi Amamiya, one of the architects of the Japanese ultra-easy monetary policy, as Chairman of the Bank of Japan.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

06:01 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

The market vs. the European Central Bank

Julius Baer — Fri, 03 Feb 2023 08:58:58 +0100

Global equities were propelled higher yesterday by expectations that rates are soon to peak, even as the European Central Bank is leaning against this view, and a surge in shares of Meta Platforms. This morning, markets are being weighed lower by results of Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, notes that after the central bank meetings this week, FX markets went into reverse as the dollar rose despite a more dovish US Federal Reserve and the euro fell even though the European Central Bank was more hawkish. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, highlights that in digital assets it is all about staking at the moment and the upcoming upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain network.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:16 Currencies and metals update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

06:13 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

08:54 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Mixed corporate earnings set the tone overnight

Julius Baer — Thu, 02 Feb 2023 08:57:19 +0100

The US trading day was marred by an issue with the New York Stock Exchange system that caused hundreds of securities to commence trading without an opening auction price. After-hours trading saw Microsoft rally and then fall following better-than-expected earnings but a warning regarding its cloud-computing business. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, joins the show to explain the rationale for his call to invest in USD investment-grade bonds.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:58 Review & preview of central bank meetings by Markus Allenspach (Fixed Income Research)

09:08 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

The Fed is in focus today

Julius Baer — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 08:45:37 +0100

Several data releases yesterday showed encouraging signs that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes over the past year have begun to slow inflation. Investors are now eagerly awaiting today’s interest rate decision from the US and subsequent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – which could certainly provide the big headlines of the day. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research provides an update on this week’s central bank action and what it all means for investors.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:05 Central Banks – what’s coming up this week by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:33 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

UK reels from Brexit’s real cost to the economy

Julius Baer — Tue, 31 Jan 2023 09:02:32 +0100

Brexit is costing the UK economy GBP 100 billion a year and economists at Bloomberg believe the UK economy is 4% smaller than it might have otherwise been. In today’s episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides an update on the Q4 US earnings season and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares the latest news on the Chinese markets following last week’s Lunar New Year celebrations.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:11 US earnings update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

06:38 China after the Lunar New Year celebrations by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:00 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Another weekly gain in US equities

Julius Baer — Mon, 30 Jan 2023 08:54:04 +0100

After a strong start to the year for global equities, there is plenty going on for investors to watch this week: earnings releases from major global companies, China returning from its Lunar New Year celebrations, central banks in the US, Europe, and the UK expected to raise rates, and tensions flaring up again in the Middle East after an Israeli drone strike inside Iran. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that broad-based advances in US equities, in particular the Nasdaq index, support the case for further upward moves.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:51 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

05:18 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US economy beats expectations

Julius Baer — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 09:02:22 +0100

Markets were lifted yesterday by the latest data from the US, which showed that GDP rose more than analysts had predicted. In addition, consumer spending remained clearly positive and jobless claims were lower than expected - all good news from the US economy. In Asia, Japanese inflation is making headlines after rising to its highest level since 1981. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, gives his view on currency markets, and Manuel Villegas of the Next Generation Research team provides an update on digital assets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:10 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

06:37 Digital asset update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

08:27 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

USD weakens ahead of Q4 GDP data

Julius Baer — Thu, 26 Jan 2023 08:54:21 +0100

There were no big movements in the major US markets yesterday after the major indices in Europe all ended the day in the red. The US dollar has weakened ahead of US Q4 GDP data that comes out later today and the PCE inflation measure that is due out tomorrow. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the energy markets, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:40 Update on energy by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

07:18 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Mixed corporate earnings set the tone overnight

Julius Baer — Wed, 25 Jan 2023 08:57:33 +0100

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:06 USD investment-grade bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

06:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Ford cuts jobs in Europe ahead of shift to EVs

Julius Baer — Tue, 24 Jan 2023 08:55:55 +0100

US car manufacturer Ford announces plans to slash 3,200 jobs across Europe. The Nasdaq 100 gains 2.2%, marking its strongest 2-day rally since November. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, takes a closer look at the impact of China’s reopening. And Chief Economist David Kohl provides his insights on US GDP forecasts.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:36 China re-opening by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

06:57 US GDP forecast by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

10:32 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

US equities end the week on a high note

Julius Baer — Mon, 23 Jan 2023 08:49:33 +0100

US equities rallied on Friday following better than expected earnings reports; Alphabet's admission that it needs to reverse some of the business decisions it made during the pandemic; and members of the Federal Reserve arguing for a moderation in interest rate hikes. One interesting observation: US monthly new home sales for December were reported on Friday at 4 million, well below the 5 million seen during much of the last decade. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, makes the case for the Nasdaq and Swiss small- and mid-caps.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:33 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

05:33 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Hawkish comments from Fed officials

Julius Baer — Fri, 20 Jan 2023 08:45:03 +0100

US equity markets fell yesterday as investors digested comments from US Federal Reserve officials that monetary policy tightening has not yet finished. All the major indices in Europe also ended the day in the red. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:10 FX Update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

06:40 Digital Assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Equity markets pause for breath

Julius Baer — Thu, 19 Jan 2023 08:58:58 +0100

After a strong start to the year, equity markets in the US and China saw investors take some of their chips off the table overnight. The Dow Jones for example lost 600 points, as investors took profits on some of the strong January gains and as a disappointing December retail sales reading raised concerns of a recession. Meanwhile, the 10 year US Treasury bond continued to rally, seeing its yield slide to its lowest level since September. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, reveals what the most recent Chinese economic data means for the country’s property market and the knock-on effect on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office fills us in on the Investment Committee’s most recent thoughts and actions.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:46 China/Demographics/Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:06 Update from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Scholz convinced that Germany will avoid a recession

Julius Baer — Wed, 18 Jan 2023 08:55:07 +0100

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that Germany will not fall into a recession. And the Bank of Japan has decided to further maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy, causing the yen to tumble over 2.5%. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research, explains the implications of the BoJ’s decision for bond markets.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:07 Bank of Japan policy decisions and implications for bond markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:10 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Weaker than expected data push Asian equity markets lower – Japan up on policy bets

Julius Baer — Tue, 17 Jan 2023 08:54:45 +0100

Asian stocks dip this morning, with traders selling on weaker than expected Chinese gross domestic product data despite an uptick towards year-end. Japanese stocks are up on the prospects of a further adjustment of the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve-control policy at the central bank’s meeting tomorrow. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his thoughts about Q4 results reported by some of the heavy-weight US Wall Street banks – markets are eagerly awaiting Morgan Stanley’s and Goldman Sachs’s reports, due today.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:41 US bank earnings by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

05:48 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

A lot to digest this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 16 Jan 2023 08:53:00 +0100

US equities reversed their initial losses on Friday as investors seemed to like what they heard from major US banks on their earnings releases and US short-term inflation expectations fell to their lowest in nearly two years. An interesting observation: after the recent rally, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the last twelve months. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about what type of assets to own as US Treasury yields have fallen recently.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:22 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

04:50 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Next stop: Earnings season

Julius Baer — Fri, 13 Jan 2023 08:48:10 +0100

The US inflation data was certainly the most important news item yesterday - the US stock market seesawed in reaction to the data and then ended in the green. While market participants are now speculating on the future interest rate path of the US Federal Reserve, they are slowly but surely turning their attention to the earnings season, which kicks off today with the usual big US banks. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his thoughts on currency markets, and our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, gives an update on stablecoins.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:35 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

06:38 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:00 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Global equity markets climb ahead of US Consumer Price Index inflation data release

Julius Baer — Thu, 12 Jan 2023 08:57:04 +0100

Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, has spoken out in favour of an interest rate hike of 0.25% at the US central bank’s next policy decision. We take a look at what the Q4 2022 earnings season holds in store, we find out what China’s reopening means for the copper market and we also feature an update from Julius Baer’s first Investment Committee meeting of the year.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:41 Q4 2022 earnings briefing by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)

06:55 Copper’s reaction to China reopening by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:23 Update on the 2023’s first Investment Committee meeting by Nicolas Jordan (CIO office)

12:42 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Markets cautiously optimistic ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data

Julius Baer — Wed, 11 Jan 2023 08:55:01 +0100

The key US equity indices closed higher yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite celebrating a third day in the green, as investors optimistic about the prospect of cooling inflation took the opportunity to pick up beaten-up tech stocks. Asian markets followed suit – further buoyed by China’s reopening. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research joins the podcast today to enlighten us on new research data on one aspect of the Healthy Living theme – why how much (water) you drink, matters.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:07 New Year’s resolution - lower blood sodium? By Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)

05:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Hawkish comments from Fed officials dampen the mood

Julius Baer — Tue, 10 Jan 2023 08:50:28 +0100

In Europe, almost all of the major indices ended the day in the green yesterday and US equities also started positively, but the hawkish comments from some US Federal Reserve officials then dampened the mood. The S&P 500 ended the day broadly flat, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%, helped particularly by Tesla’s rally. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, comments on the latest economic data in the US and Europe, and Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research talks about the latest situation in Brazil and what it means from a fixed income investment perspective.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:39 US jobs report, European inflation figures by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:27 Brazil by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)

12:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Strong equity rally on a positive US jobs report and China reopening

Julius Baer — Mon, 09 Jan 2023 08:59:10 +0100

Stocks in the US and Asia are up this morning on the heels of what some called a ‘goldilocks’ US jobs report, showing a somewhat less tight labour market and lower-than-expected wage growth, and the on-going China reopening. Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, sets the rally in Asia in perspective and Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that investors are well advised to rebalance stock portfolios, considering investments in Asia and Europe too over the coming months.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:59 China outlook by Richard Tang (Head of Research, Hong Kong)

09:57 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:59 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Special episode: Private Markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 06 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Helen Freer (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a recent conversation that Helen Freer had with Simon Ibbitson, our Head of Private Markets Fund Distribution, and Michael Hornung-Moser from our Private Markets investment team on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. They talked about various aspects of investing in private markets.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: There is no shortcut

Julius Baer — Thu, 05 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Helen Freer (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation featuring Alan Hooks, Head of Private Clients for Julius Baer in the UK, on Julius Baer’s True Connections podcast. Alan spoke to Rutu Buddhdev, the Founder and Managing Director of Amara Property, a luxury home builder in North London. Alan asked Rutu about how she started her business and how it has evolved, the challenges and opportunities she has experienced as an entrepreneur, and the impact that Covid had on the business.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Deploying cash in uncertain times

Julius Baer — Wed, 04 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Helen Freer (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that John Franklin and Grace Treston had with our Head of Investment Advisory, Diego Würgler, on Julius Baer’s Wealth Insights podcast. When uncertainty is high, some investors feel safer reverting to cash, but in this conversation Diego explains the impact that this can have on a portfolio.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: How to protect your purchasing power

Julius Baer — Tue, 03 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a conversation that John Franklin and Grace Treston had withChristian Gattiker, Head of Research, on Julius Baer’s Wealth Insights podcast. With the record high inflation levels that we have seen, John and Grace spoke to Christian about how investors can protect their purchasing power.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Simplicity was at the heart of it

Julius Baer — Mon, 02 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that Alan Hooks, Head of Private Clients for Julius Baer in the UK, had on Julius Baer’s True Connections podcast. Alan spoke to Chris Sheldrick, the CEO and co-founder of what3words, and he asked Chris about what inspired him to set this business up and what the future holds for what3words, a company that offers an innovative address-finding solution.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: How is the energy crisis impacting the ‘clean’ transition?

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Helen Freer (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that John Franklin and Grace Treston had with Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, on Julius Baer’s Wealth Insights podcast. They discuss various aspects of the energy transition and the remaining obstacles to the global adoption of clean energy.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Hydrogen – part of the future energy system?

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation between Helen Freer and Roberto Cominotto, who is an Equity Research Analyst, on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. Helen talked to Roberto about hydrogen – what it actually is and if hydrogen could be an environmentally-friendly source of energy and therefore help in the fight against climate change.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Currency matters

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that Helen Freer had with Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. Helen and Tim talk about the impact of rising interest rates and economic data releases on currencies and whether investors should consider hedging their portfolios.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Impact of US dollar Strength

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show features a conversation between Roy Athanasius Ang and Sabrina Choy, a Singapore-based FX specialist, on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. They discuss what a strong US dollar means for investors.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Special episode: Thematic Investing

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Hosted today by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing).

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that Helen Freer had with Diego Würgler, Head of Investment Advisory, on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. Helen asks Diego for his thoughts on thematic investing.

Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January.

Better-than-expected US data weighs on markets ahead of today’s inflation numbers

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Dec 2022 09:25:34 +0100

Short-dated yields in the US rose on better-than-expected economic data, implying that there is further room for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates in its quest to rein in inflation. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, rhymes a review of the year for currencies and Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about one of the leading centralised crypto exchanges.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
02:50 FX markets update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
04:29 Digital assets – Binance by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

Markets breathe a sigh of relief

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:52:01 +0100

Stock markets around the world rallied on improved consumer confidence and better-than-expected earnings reports. In Asia, technology and property companies led the rise after a series of comments from regulators supporting the overall economy and property developers. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives an update on energy markets, and Luca Menozzi from the Next Generation Research team shares his views on ChatGPT, a chatbot that has caused quite a stir.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:18 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

06:13 ChatGPT (artificial intelligence) by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research)

09:56 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

The Bank of Japan’s policy shift continues to reverberate

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Dec 2022 08:57:19 +0100

US equities were flat on the day yesterday with oil & gas stocks rising, but consumer discretionary stocks falling on weak numbers from the housing market. Following the shift in Japan’s monetary policy yesterday, Japan’s two-year government bond yield briefly rose above zero for the first time since 2015. Dario Messi, Fixed Income analyst, takes a closer look at what the Bank of Japan decided and what it means for global bond markets. Maximiliano Ranieri, Structured Products Solutions in Geneva, speaks about a European Investment Grade Credit Index.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:48 Bank of Japan by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:26 European Investment Grade Credit Index by Maximiliano Ranieri (Structured Products Solutions Geneva)

10:47 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Yen surges as Bank of Japan doubles yield cap

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:52:07 +0100

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda shocks markets in a surprise change to the bank’s yield curve policy. EU energy ministers approve a measure to limit natural gas prices to combat the energy crisis after two months of intense negotiations. And David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on currencies after a busy few days of central bank meetings.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:30 Our view on currencies after central bank meetings by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

05:55 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Central bank hikes and hawkish outlooks dent sentiment

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Dec 2022 09:25:00 +0100

After a number of rate hikes from major central banks last week and officials drilling home the message that rates will go higher until they’re confident that inflation is under control, all the major indices in the US and Europe fell on Friday. Leaders in China have said they’ll focus on boosting their economy next year, and European Union member states will meet today to discuss the proposal of a much lower gas-price cap. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:08 Technical analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)

05:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Equities don’t like what they heard from central banks this week

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Dec 2022 09:04:07 +0100

The central banks of the eurozone, the UK, and Switzerland raised interest rates by half a percentage point yesterday, matching the Federal Reserve’s previous day move. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, and our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, Tim Gagie, join us on this show to talk about what this means for growth, inflation, and currencies. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research speaks about the continuing fallout from FTX’s collapse, and the recent news flow around Binance.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:06 Central banks update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:11 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:47 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

14:13 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

With the Fed out of the way, it’s the turn of European central banks

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 09:07:28 +0100

The US federal Reserve delivered the expected 50 basis point hike yesterday, but stock markets were disappointed by the indication that officials expect to keep rates higher in 2023, with no reductions expected until 2024. European stock markets now nervously await decisions from the ECB, Swiss national Bank and Bank of England. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research talks us through why he expects the recent recovery in gold and silver prices to run out of steam soon, and Nicolas Jordon updates us on the latest thoughts from the bank’s investment committee.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:47 Gold & Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

06:58 IC Meeting update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy)

09:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Now that the inflation data is out of the way, it’s all about the Fed

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Dec 2022 09:15:49 +0100

US stock and bond markets gained yesterday after CPI data revealed that inflation in the US is cooling. Nevertheless, headline CPI remains above 7% and whilst the Fed is expected to deliver a 50 basis point hike today, the markets are now more interested in the forecasts that they will release and the language that they use around their decision. Dario Messi from Fixed income Research joins the podcast to explain more.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:02 Thoughts on strategy pre-Fed by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

06:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Ukraine to receive an 18 billion euro aid package

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 08:44:35 +0100

The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement which clears the way for an EUR 18 billion support package for the Ukraine. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from its zero-covid strategy. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy gives us some insight into the opportunities emerging from China’s reopening.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:44 Impact of China reopening by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

04:29 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

All eyes on central banks this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Dec 2022 08:43:45 +0100

US equity markets closed in the red on Friday and posted losses for the week following the release of November’s producer price index figures which came in higher than expected, while the major European indices closed the day in positive territory on optimism after China’s strict Covid-19 rules were relaxed. It’s central bank week this week with the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where a 50-basis-point hike is expected. Then we’ll hear from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others, on Thursday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:16 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

05:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

What will US producer prices tell us today?

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Dec 2022 09:04:24 +0100

Today, investors are focused on US producer price data, which is among the last data US Federal Reserve policymakers will see before their December meeting next week. In Asia, China is experiencing a rapid rise in Covid infections, but outgoing Premier Li Keqiang said the country’s economic growth will still “keep picking up”. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, provides an update on the latest movements in currencies, and Manuel Villegas from the Next Generation Research team talks about what is currently driving the crypto space.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

02:50 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

06:26 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

09:32 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Stock markets stuck in the Fed’s headlights, whilst energy headlines abound

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Dec 2022 09:02:30 +0100

US and Asian stock markets closed fairly flat yesterday and overnight, with only Hong Kong seeing any meaningful gains, based on local news reporting of further covid restrictions being lifted. Investors now await more economic data this week for clues on what to expect from the US Federal Reserve next week. Amidst the oil, gas and coal headlines dominating the newswires, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, updates us on global energy markets. Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office fills us in on the investment committee’s thoughts about year-end.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:57 Global energy situation by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

07:41 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Growth concerns are being balanced by China reopening

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Dec 2022 09:05:17 +0100

It was not an economic data release, but downbeat remarks from CEOs of major US banks about growth headwinds ahead that led the US equity market lower yesterday. Yet, on the positive side of the ledger, China’s National Health Commission announced 10 new measures to ease Covid restrictions. Dario Messi, from Fixed Income Research, joined the show to talk about why the fundamental backdrop for emerging market hard-currency bonds has turned attractive.

00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:32 Emerging market hard currency bonds upgraded to ‘Overweight’ by Dario Messi (Fixed-income Research)

07:08 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US equity markets fall on surprisingly strong US services data

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Dec 2022 08:46:35 +0100

The ISM Services Index rose to 56.5 in November which has cast some doubt over a Fed pivot and contributed to US equity markets falling and US Treasury yields surging yesterday. Chinese authorities are relaxing some of their strict Covid rules, but the possibility of new tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium might weigh on sentiment. David Meier, Senior Economist, talks about the EUR/USD outlook and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his latest thoughts on what’s in store for the industrials sector.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

02:55 The US dollar and EUR/USD outlook by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

05:18 Global industrials – is the rally premature? By Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

07:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

OPEC+ keeps oil production unchanged

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Dec 2022 08:52:43 +0100

OPEC+ agreed yesterday to keep its output targets unchanged. Chinese authorities appear to be engineering a major shift away from their strict Covid Zero policy with the relaxation of testing rules across major cities. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince may be preparing to invest around USD 500 million in Credit Suisse’s CS First Boston spinout. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update on the latest market moves from a technical perspective.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:53 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

04:12 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

All eyes on today’s US payroll report

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:01:34 +0100

US economic data releases on Thursday pointed to a cooling off in growth and inflation. All eyes will be on the US labour market data today and whether it can impact interest rate expectations and the markets as a whole. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about whether the recent USD weakness has room to grow. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research is on the show for the first time. He speaks about crypto and why now is the time to understand custody solutions.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:17 Currencies & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

05:12 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

07:23 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Is a soft landing on its way?

Julius Baer — Thu, 01 Dec 2022 08:52:25 +0100

US markets were buoyed yesterday by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying that smaller interest rate increases are likely to be coming – as early as this December. Asian markets also rallied on the back of the US optimism and an initial easing in China’s Covid-zero approach. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research talks about the current moves in gold and silver, and what he expects going forwards, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the thinking at this week’s Investment Committee meeting.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:13 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:46 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

07:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

China and European inflation in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Wed, 30 Nov 2022 08:59:35 +0100

One of the main stories in the market remains China, where officials have asked local authorities to avoid excessive lockdown curbs and have promised to step up vaccinations. In Europe, meanwhile, recent data has shown that price pressures have eased significantly in Spain and Germany. Investors now await inflation data for the whole eurozone later today. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research talks about how the market has perceived the lower inflation readings in Europe and what this means in terms of increasing duration risk.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:29 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst

07:02 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Fed indicates rate hike pace may slow, but likely to peak higher

Julius Baer — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 08:52:11 +0100

US Federal Reserve policymakers suggest that interest rates may peak higher than anticipated, foreseeing a modestly higher path for policy compared with its stance in September. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for robust pragmatism towards China, referring to the country as a systemic threat. And Damien Ng, Next Generation Research Analyst, talks to us about developments in the global immunotherapy industry and opportunities it presents for investors.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:03 The power of cancer immunotherapy by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)

06:03 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Oil tumbles to its lowest since December

Julius Baer — Mon, 28 Nov 2022 08:59:09 +0100

Protests are spreading across China over harsh anti-virus curbs. In the UK, meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing pushback from his ruling Conservatives as they try to force the government to drop a ban on new onshore wind farms. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, gives an update on the latest market moves, and Mark Mathews, Head of Research APAC, supplies more insights on the current situation in China.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:03 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

04:40 China by Mark Matthews (Head of Research APAC)

11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Black Friday starts today, while Beijing goes on lockdown again

Julius Baer — Fri, 25 Nov 2022 08:59:19 +0100

The US equity markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving and are only open in the morning session today. Yet, people across the US will be shopping around the clock as it is Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, while parts of Beijing are back in lockdown again due to the country’s Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the recent weakness in the USD. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, takes a closer look at the continuing fallout from the crypto exchange FTX, but also highlights some positive trends.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:38 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

06:41 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:31 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The US Federal Reserve hinted at a moderate pace of interest rate hikes

Julius Baer — Thu, 24 Nov 2022 08:50:33 +0100

The US Federal Reserve signalled that it is leaning towards downshifting to a 50 basis points rate hike in December. In Asia, meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party indicated further monetary stimulus, including a likely cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update copper and metals, and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis provides insights on the latest Investment Committee meeting.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:52 Copper & metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:59 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

07:52 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Domino effect feared as crypto contagion intensifies

Julius Baer — Wed, 23 Nov 2022 09:00:42 +0100

Credit Suisse is cutting at least a third of its investment banking workforce in China as part of the bank’s cost-cutting plans. And the ongoing crypto crisis shows no signs of abating, with fears of contagion continuing to spread throughout the crypto world. Dario Messi, Investment Research, talks about US fixed income and his view on the rising risk of a recession.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:20 US fixed income - Positioning for rising recession risk by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst)

06:51 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Stocks mixed as China’s Covid infections climb to a near record

Julius Baer — Tue, 22 Nov 2022 08:52:35 +0100

The sentiment is fragile in Asia after China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record. It is said local authorities may possibly re-introduce strict measures, despite the new directives from authorities over a week ago, that marked an easing in the official zero-Covid playbook. Guy Bettschart, Equity Analyst, shares insights on our longstanding Overweight call on Healthcare equities.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:00 Healthcare equities by Guy Bettschart (Equities Research)

05:26 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

China’s Covid worries drag markets down

Julius Baer — Mon, 21 Nov 2022 08:55:01 +0100

Markets are mostly down today after China reported its first Covid deaths in almost six months, sparking fears of new lockdown measures in the country. This week is traditionally quiet due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, but there will be a focus on the FOMC minutes which are released on Wednesday as these may offer some new insights. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about what the charts are telling us.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

02:56 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

03:58 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Equity markets take a breather after James Bullard’s speech

Julius Baer — Fri, 18 Nov 2022 08:49:59 +0100

The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, suggested in a speech yesterday that policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% - this likely contributed to all the major markets in the US ending the day in the red yesterday, and all except the DAX following suit in Europe. In the UK, Jeremy Hunt announced the Autumn Statement, and in Japan, core inflation for October reached a 40-year high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, updates us on currencies.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

02:53 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

07:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Markets rattled by single stock news

Julius Baer — Thu, 17 Nov 2022 08:58:23 +0100

Both the US and Asian stock markets were upended by micro news overnight. In the US, it was Target that rattled investors by announcing that sales were down as shoppers grappled with higher inflation heading into a peak shopping season. US retail sales data however painted a different picture coming in 0.3% higher than expected in October. In Asia, an announcement from Tencent that it will divest USD 20 billion in Meituan shares caused markets to sell off. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, updates us on his expectations for the energy markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan updates us on the CIO view.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

02:52 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Macro & Next Generation Research)

05:55 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US equities rise, but geopolitical concerns resurface again

Julius Baer — Wed, 16 Nov 2022 09:30:13 +0100

A softer than expected increase in US producer price prices for October gave US equities another boost. However, geopolitical concerns are weighing on sentiment this morning after a missile is reported to have struck land in Poland near the Ukraine border. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research speaks about the broadening opportunity set in fixed income following the rise in real bond yields this year.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:00 New fixed-income strategy calls by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:45 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US/China leaders meet again

Julius Baer — Tue, 15 Nov 2022 08:49:03 +0100

At the G-20 summit in Bali, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met face-to-face for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting ran about three hours, and showed signs of reduced US-China tensions. David Meier, Economics Research, gives an update on the EUR/USD currency pair, and why we believe the dollar has likely peaked.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:20 FX update (EURUSD) by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

06:14 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

China is making fresh attempts to boost its ailing economy

Julius Baer — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 08:54:59 +0100

Asian equities advanced to their highest level in two months on the back of China’s policy shifts on Zero Covid and the property sector. Democrats will keep control of the US Senate after its candidate for the US Senate for the State of Nevada is all but certain to have won the contest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at market dynamics after the strong moves last week, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives his insights on the latest developments in China.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:35 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

05:23 China – double pivot by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Lower than expected US inflation and a subtle shift in China’s zero-Covid policy fire up markets

Julius Baer — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 09:05:55 +0100

Equities rallied, the USD fell, and bond yields plunged following a report that US inflation rose less than expected in October. This morning, a subtle shift in China’s zero-Covid policy towards more targeted and scientific implementation is adding fuel to Asian equities. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about gold, which has rallied sharply from mid-week lows. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, provides a comprehensive sector-by-sector overview of this year’s Q3 earnings releases.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:07 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

06:41 Earning season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)

13:36 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Investors waiting for consumer price data today

Julius Baer — Thu, 10 Nov 2022 08:57:35 +0100

While the race for the US Senate is still open and it may be days or even weeks before the results are final, US President Joe Biden said that the Democrats had exceeded expectations and that he intends to run for a second term. Today, all eyes are on the latest consumer price data from the US, which will offer some clues on the path of future Fed tightening. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains what has been happening in the crypto world this week and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis reports on the latest decisions from our Investment Committee.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:59 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:25 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:57 Dividends from a portfolio context by Arian Osmani (Traditional Fund Specialist)

12:45 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US Midterm results and upcoming inflation numbers in the spotlight

Julius Baer — Wed, 09 Nov 2022 08:57:10 +0100

While all eyes are on the results of the US Midterm elections rolling-in, it could still take a while until final results are declared. Markets will soon focus on tomorrow’s US inflation figures, which are expected to drop slightly. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Research, shares his take aways on the Midterms and their impact on markets, and Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about the strong moves in FX and metals markets.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:47 US Midterm results – initial assessment on market impact by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

06:12 FX/commodities update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

09:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Markets brace ahead of potential gridlock in US midterms

Julius Baer — Tue, 08 Nov 2022 08:50:45 +0100

Former US President Donald Trump plans to make a “big announcement” next week, indicating that he intends to run for President in 2024. China is experiencing an increase in coronavirus infections, reporting 7,323 new local Covid-19 cases, as it staunchly defends its zero-Covid policy. And David Meier, Senior Economist, gives us a preview of what we can expect from today’s eagerly awaited US midterm elections.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

03:28 US Midterms preview by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

06:53 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

China signals no change in its zero-Covid stance

Julius Baer — Mon, 07 Nov 2022 09:02:14 +0100

Whilst speculation mounted about China’s re-opening story, Chinese officials vowed over the weekend to remain “unswervingly” strict in Beijing’s approach to stamping out the coronavirus. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update on markets from a technical perspective. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights on China’s potential easing of the zero-Covid stance and how it might impact the country’s long-term economic outlook.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:23 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:17 China – loosening of Covid restrictions? By Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

10:49 Closing remark by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

US interest rates are moving higher, so are China stocks this week

Julius Baer — Fri, 04 Nov 2022 08:52:56 +0100

US market sentiment was subdued following the big Fed-day on Wednesday, while the Bank of England delivered its largest rate hike in 33 years. China shares are on course for their best week since 2015 on continued speculation that the nation will start relaxing its zero-Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, takes a closer look at what drives currency markets this week with a special focus on today’s employment report. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, compares bitcoin (miners) with gold (miners) and shows the differences, but also highlights similarities.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:33 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:28 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

10:18 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

BoE expected to follow the Fed with jumbo rate hike

Julius Baer — Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:05:26 +0100

Yesterday evening saw all eyes once again on the US Federal Reserve, when it announced its fourth consecutive rate hike of 0.75%. Today is the Bank of England’s turn, and it is expected to follow suit. We hear from David Meier, Senior Economist, with his thoughts on the outcome of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, from Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, on precious metals, and from Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, with an update on the latest Investment Committee discussions.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:11 FOMC meeting by David Meier (Economic Research)

06:48 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:36 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

13:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Don’t expect any miracles from the Fed

Julius Baer — Wed, 02 Nov 2022 08:52:44 +0100

In China, equity markets rallied as investors there entertained the prospect that the zero-Covid policy might be dropped but at the same time the area around Foxconn Technology’s group has been put into a 7-day lockdown, which will drastically curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory. US equity markets fell yesterday, the dollar faltered and 2-year Treasury yields rose – all in anticipation of another 75 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later on today. Dario Messi joins us from Fixed Income Research to share his thoughts on what to expect from the Fed (there’s a clue in the title).

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:27 Fed preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets taking a breather before Fed-Day on Wednesday; Asia pushes higher

Julius Baer — Tue, 01 Nov 2022 08:47:16 +0100

US markets took a breather yesterday, after a couple of strong trading days last week. While today’s trading action will be overshadowed by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow, Asian stock markets are rallying on speculation to an end of the Covid-Zero policy in China. Nenad Dinic, from our Research’s Equity Strategy team, shares his thoughts on the outcome of the Brazilian Presidential elections and what that means for financial markets going forward.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:28 Brazilian elections by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)

09:52 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

US stocks rise for the second consecutive week

Julius Baer — Mon, 31 Oct 2022 08:46:55 +0100

US equity markets all made solid gains on Friday and 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose for the first time in four days. Wheat futures have surged today after Russia has withdrawn from the Black Sea corridor agreement and in Brazil’s presidential election, the left-wing former president Lula da Silva has beaten the far-right incumbent Bolsonaro. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:25 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Top-down macro and bottom-up company results are moving markets today

Julius Baer — Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:05:21 +0200

Shares are falling in Asia after disappointing results from US tech giants Meta and Alphabet, while the Bank of Japan does not move an inch on its ultra-low interest rate policy. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, notes that the ECB is clearly focused on the inflation battle, but he explains why we have a below consensus view on future interest rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, sees digital assets moving from crypto crisis to crypto calm, but it’s too early to argue for a rapid rebound as bottom-up crypto-specific factors have not turned favourable (yet).

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:14 ECB interest rate decision by David Meier (Macro and Next Generation Research)

07:44 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:24 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Credit Suisse reports Q3 loss of 4 billion Swiss francs

Julius Baer — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 09:01:03 +0200

Credit Suisse posted a disastrous loss of CHF 4 bn in its Q3 results, hugely below the average estimate of CHF 413m. The disappointing results come as the bank is preparing a sweeping restructuring overhaul and is said to be in advanced talks with a group including heavyweights Apollo and Pimco, who are interested in buying the bank’s securitised products business. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives an update on energy, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, provides an update from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:00 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)

06:25 Latest CIO views by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Chinese central bank seeks to bolster investor confidence

Julius Baer — Wed, 26 Oct 2022 08:51:53 +0200

Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended their rebound from their historic rout earlier this week, as authorities sought to bolster investor confidence in one of the worst-performing markets this year. Rishi Sunak is under criticism for reappointing a number of scandal-plagued former ministers to senior government positions. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, gives an earnings season update.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:44 Earnings season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)

06:24 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Xi Jinping and Rishi Sunak … in with the old, in with the new

Julius Baer — Tue, 25 Oct 2022 08:54:52 +0200

US stock markets rallied yesterday but Asian markets couldn’t quite make their minds up, underscoring investor nervousness following China’s twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress and the announcement that President Xi Jinping remains in power. Rishi Sunak will become the UK’s new prime minister after meeting with the King today. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on what Mr Sunak’s government needs to do now and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong provides his insights into what to expect from China’s ‘new’ cabinet.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:23 UK politics by David Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

07:16 Chinese National People’s Congress by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index spirals

Julius Baer — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 08:51:52 +0200

After the end of the party Congress in China, big falls in Hong Kong stocks and mainland China markets today have seen the Hang Seng index drop to its lowest levels since April 2009. There have been big swings in the yen amid signs of another intervention from the Japanese authorities. And after Boris Johnson withdraws from the Conservative party leadership race in the UK, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are left to battle it out, with Sunak the current frontrunner. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:02 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US equity markets fail to extend an early rally – and end the day near lows

Julius Baer — Fri, 21 Oct 2022 08:52:07 +0200

Traders were probably less surprised about Liz Truss’s political exit than herself. However, this morning, it is economic data, which weigh on the British pound. Yields in the US are back at levels last seen during the financial crisis and European yields are expected to catch up. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on the latest moves in FX and metals markets.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:32 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

07:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Equity market rally stalls and US Treasury yields surge

Julius Baer — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 09:02:59 +0200

The equity market rally seen earlier in the week stalled yesterday and 2 and 10-year US Treasury yields climbed 13 basis points amid fears of a global slowdown. The Japanese Yen is inching towards the psychological barrier of 150 relative to the US dollar, so investors are watching closely for further intervention to support the currency. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:49 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

06:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Strong earnings boost stocks

Julius Baer — Wed, 19 Oct 2022 08:57:58 +0200

Earnings reports in the US fuelled the rally overnight but the story was more mixed in Asian trading. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy explains why he favours software in the IT space, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research joins us to reveal whether or not emerging market bond yields are just too attractive to ignore.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:36 Our focus in the IT space by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

05:39 Emerging markets bond yields: too attractive to ignore? By Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Will the global rally continue today?

Julius Baer — Tue, 18 Oct 2022 08:51:07 +0200

The global stock market started the week with a big rally, which saw the Nasdaq Composite Index rise 3.4%. Reasons for the rally were the solid earnings reports so far that offer a largely rosy view of the US consumer, as well as the news that Jeremy Hunt, the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, will reverse nearly all announced tax cuts and wind back energy subsidies. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides us with an update on China’s green ambitions.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:53 Update on China’s green ambitions by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

09:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

China's Communist Party signalled no change in direction

Julius Baer — Mon, 17 Oct 2022 08:58:04 +0200

At the 20th national party congress, President Xi Jinping indicated no change in course for the two major risk factors weighing on the Chinese economy. Liz Truss is fighting for her premiership this week, when financial markets will render a new verdict on her economic reset. Mensur Pocinsi, head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Ronny Kaufmann from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis gives an IC meeting update.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:47 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

05:31 IC meeting by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:36 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

A rather unexpected market rally

Julius Baer — Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:50:45 +0200

Following the higher-than-expected US inflation figures, US stocks initially plunged but then rallied, which improved the overall risk appetite and boosted other equity markets around the world. Now investors are turning their attention to the earnings season with the big US banks being the first to report their Q3 results today. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his take on the US inflation data, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, takes a closer look at currencies and metals.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:46 US inflation and impact on the Fed’s tightening path by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:12 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

11:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Today, it’s US inflation day

Julius Baer — Thu, 13 Oct 2022 08:47:28 +0200

The S&P 500 is at its lowest level since November 2020; the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting show that it is committed to raising rates to restrictive levels; and Germany reported that inflation rose 10% in the 12-months ending September. This sets the stage for the all-important US inflation report due out later today, which is likely to drive market action today, and maybe even in the weeks to come. Roberto Cominotto, Equities Research, speaks on why he thinks European automobile stocks are worth taking a closer look at now, even if there are concerns about a recession looming around the corner.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:10 Automobile stocks by Roberto Cominotto (Investment Research Analyst)

06:05 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Bank of England sticks to its guns whilst markets wait for earnings to kick off

Julius Baer — Wed, 12 Oct 2022 08:57:02 +0200

Stock markets continue to suffer in the face of inflation and recession risks but the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insists that the US economy is doing “very well”. The Bank of England publicly said it would buy more bonds but only until Friday. Privately, however, it’s reported that they will extend the deadline. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy shares his thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and suggests that the focus should be on Q4 and 2023 guidance.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:03 Earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

06:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets remain fragile before US inflation prints – semiconductor sector under pressure

Julius Baer — Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:53:31 +0200

Despite a slight change of tone coming from the Federal Reserve, US bond markets remain under pressure and yields have climbed further over the past hours. The US administration’s decision to curb China’s access to US semiconductor technology weighed heavily on the sector worldwide. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his views on the latest US labor report and Sophie Altermatt from Macro and Next Generation Research talks about what to expect from the upcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:20 US labour market update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:00 China party congress by Sophie Altermatt (Investment Research Analyst)

11:32 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

United States imposed new restrictions on China

Julius Baer — Mon, 10 Oct 2022 08:57:09 +0200

Chinese semiconductor stocks are falling after the United States imposed new restrictions on China's access to American technology. Liz Truss is preparing for battle with her ruling Conservative Party in a bid to quash any attempt at rebellion just one month into her UK premiership. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives a technical update.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:48 Chart insights by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

05:21 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

A more orderly week – but US payroll data have the potential to stir it up

Julius Baer — Fri, 07 Oct 2022 08:42:25 +0200

A drumbeat of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept stocks on the back foot, after a strong rally earlier this week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on the markets. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on digital assets with a focus on the city of Lugano embracing tokens as a form of payment.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:25 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

05:25 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:24 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Risk-on rules the markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 08:56:25 +0200

Despite higher-than-expected US PMI services readings, stocks managed to claw back almost all of the losses through the trading session yesterday. The OPEC+’s announcement of a massive oil production cut provided tailwinds for oil and gas shares. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the latest moves in silver.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:56 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

06:39 Investment Committee Update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:54 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Stock markets rally and Musk makes his move

Julius Baer — Wed, 05 Oct 2022 08:54:55 +0200

Stock markets rallied in the US and those parts of Asia that were open overnight, as a weakening in the most recent US job openings data prompted some investors to consider whether the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Amidst this, Elon Musk went back to the SEC to say that he will buy Twitter at the agreed price after all. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves and warns that volatility is the only constant.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:12 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets rebound amid greater optimism

Julius Baer — Tue, 04 Oct 2022 09:14:35 +0200

Following the worst September in two decades, markets are rebounding. Oil is surging on indications that the OPEC+ alliance is considering cutting production by over 1 million barrels a day to help prop up plunging prices. David Meier, Senior Economist, shares his latest insights on the UK macroeconomic situation.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:13 Update on UK macro policy by David Meier (Senior Economist)

08:26 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

S&P 500 is down three quarters in a row

Julius Baer — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 09:02:07 +0200

US and European inflation data released on Friday surprised to the upside and Nike shares fell the most in 20 years. Oil is back up as there are reports that OPEC+ countries will cut oil production by one million barrels. The pound is up as the UK government will not cut its top income tax rate. And Brazil is off to a run-off election to be held on 30 October. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, speaks about the volatility across financial assets and the bearish tone with US equities breaking through June lows.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:31 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

07:20 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Markets down on Federal Reserve news and the great pound rebound

Julius Baer — Fri, 30 Sep 2022 08:55:29 +0200

Stocks ended the day another leg lower yesterday after US Federal Reserve speakers reiterated their strong will to raise rates further, despite increasing volatility on financial markets and clear signs of slowing growth. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on currencies and metals markets, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a clear view on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the latest developments in the field.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

03:24 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

05:48 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

08:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

BOE triggers a global rally in government debt

Julius Baer — Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:56:47 +0200

The Bank of England’s intervention to buy an unlimited amount of long-dated bonds triggered record gains for government debt. Stocks in the US also posted their best day since early August. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the energy markets. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives an update on the latest CIO views.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:29 Energy markets/Nord Stream by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

07:01 IC Strategy update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:51 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Stock markets decline as US treasury yields and the US dollar soar

Julius Baer — Wed, 28 Sep 2022 08:59:12 +0200

Global stock markets continue to sell off whilst the US dollar strengthens further and US Treasury yields hit new highs. The IMF has called the UK’s proposed tax cuts excessive and suggested that they re-evaluate them. The European Commission President says that the Nord Stream leaks are an act of sabotage. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves with a specific focus on Switzerland.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

04:04 Swiss franc rates by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

08:09 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Markets jittery following rollercoaster ride for the pound

Julius Baer — Tue, 27 Sep 2022 09:03:36 +0200

Markets jittery following rollercoaster ride for the pound

The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low yesterday. And there is growing speculation among investors that the pound could soon fall to parity with the US dollar or even beyond. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides his analysis on the outcome of the Italian general election and David Meier, Senior Economist, gives an update on the drop in the British pound.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:28 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

08:41 Sterling’s drop by David Meier (Senior Economist)

13:32 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

The pound plunges almost 5% to a record low overnight

Julius Baer — Mon, 26 Sep 2022 09:00:27 +0200

The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts has caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low. Giorgia Meloni, who earned a resounding victory in the Italian election held on Sunday, is poised to become the nation's first female prime minister. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Tim Gagie our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva provides a currencies and metals update.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:15 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:16 Currencies and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

09:18 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)

Central banks continue to hike rates, apart from the Bank of Japan

Julius Baer — Fri, 23 Sep 2022 08:47:53 +0200

Equity markets across the US and Europe ended the day in the red yesterday. Central Bank meetings continued: the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and then announced they were intervening in an attempt to stop the slide of the yen; the Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Bank of England all announced rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, also shares his latest thoughts on digital assets.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:11 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The Fed delivered the clearest signal yet

Julius Baer — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 08:56:17 +0200

The US Federal Reserve is willing to tolerate a recession as a necessary trade-off for regaining control over inflation. The US central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, leaving the Federal Funds Rate between 3% and 3.25%. It also forecast a further tightening of 1.25 percentage points by the end of the year. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his view on gold and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office provides an update on this week’s Investment Committee meeting.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:34 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:09 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

08:55 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

It’s (nearly) all about the Fed

Julius Baer — Wed, 21 Sep 2022 08:54:30 +0200

US and Asian equity markets are lower and US Treasury yields remain at mutli-year highs ahead of the rate decision of the US Federal Reserve this evening. Market expectations are for a third consecutive 75 basis point hike. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, fills us in on bond markets movements as well as expectations not only for the Fed announcement today but also what the Swiss National Bank may deliver tomorrow.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:03 Central banks and fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:29 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US equities rebound in late trading

Julius Baer — Tue, 20 Sep 2022 08:59:41 +0200

On Monday, US equities bounced back in the last hour of trading to erase early losses and finish in the green. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to nearly 4%, its highest level since 2007. However, markets remain on something of a knife edge as investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes given stubbornly high inflation levels. In fact, Japan just reported that inflation rose 3.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides a preview of the upcoming central bank meetings. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about the Italian elections this weekend and the likely impact on local bonds as well as equities.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:10 Central bank meetings preview by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:40 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

12:00 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Central banks take the spotlight this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 19 Sep 2022 08:58:34 +0200

Global equity markets ended their worst week since June this year and are now focused on the various central bank decisions due this week. The weakness in markets reflects expectations of further interest rate hikes around the world and concerns that the aggressive tightening to curb inflation could trigger a recession. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at US equity and fixed income markets.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:04 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Growth and interest rate concerns collide

Julius Baer — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 08:57:58 +0200

Concerns over the prospects of higher interest rates and the US company FedEx withdrawing its earnings forecast due to worsening business conditions are weighing on investor sentiment this Friday. Chinese data releases – while better than expected – did not help to calm investors’ nerves. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the drop in the gold price is the most important development in precious metals markets this week. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about the Ethereum Merge and highlights that its immediate benefits will not go beyond a reduction in energy consumption. Currently, it is macroeconomic factors that are driving price changes in crypto coins.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:23 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

07:36 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:27 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Cautious rally

Julius Baer — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 09:11:14 +0200

US equities recovered some of their losses yesterday, with Asia following suit, but concerns remain about the pace of US Federal Reserve tightening, as evidenced by the even steeper inversion of the US Treasury yield curve. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the energy situation and explains why he believes that despite the current higher prices, the market fears over Europe’s energy risks are excessive. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analyst, talks us through the discussions and decisions in this week’s Investment Committee meeting.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:16 EU energy by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

06:33 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

10:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Higher than expected US inflation

Julius Baer — Wed, 14 Sep 2022 09:05:08 +0200

US inflation fell less than expected in August sparking a broad-based sell-off across markets. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides further insights on the print and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equities Research, gives an update on equities.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:20 US inflation numbers by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

06:47 Bottom-up sector considerations by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)

10:46 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

All eyes on US inflation today

Julius Baer — Tue, 13 Sep 2022 09:01:37 +0200

Ahead of key consumer price data due today, stocks rallied around the world yesterday, with risk sentiment lifted on speculation that inflation is near its peak. In Europe, natural gas prices finally dropped after the European Union began outlining the details of its intervention in the energy crisis. David Alexander Meier, Senior Economist, talks about UK politics and the British pound.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:59 UK politics and the British pound by David Meier (Senior Economist)

08:41 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US inflation data in focus this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 12 Sep 2022 08:57:46 +0200

US equities rebounded from a three-week losing streak last week, even as bullish sentiment in investor surveys continued to deteriorate.

The main economic event this week will be the release of the August US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. It is the key economic data release before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 21 September. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at what market action is telling us and what it may mean for US equities, crude oil, and US Treasuries.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

03:56 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:30 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Monetary policy remains in focus

Julius Baer — Fri, 09 Sep 2022 08:54:55 +0200

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve remain committed to bringing down inflation by rising rates further. Meanwhile, UK politics takes a back seat as the world mourns the death of Queen Elizabeth II. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, comments on the interest rate decision by the ECB and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides further insights on the Ethereum merge.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:29 ECB interest rate decision by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

06:18 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

09:16 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

All eyes on the ECB

Julius Baer — Thu, 08 Sep 2022 09:00:38 +0200

The European Central Bank (ECB) takes centre stage today and is set to hike rates by either 50 or 75 basis points. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on gold and silver. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on currencies. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, gives an update on this week’s investment committee decisions.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

02:42 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:36 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

08:51 IC Meeting Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

12:16 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

New Treasury-yield highs provide fuel for the dollar

Julius Baer — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 08:53:20 +0200

Global stock markets extend their declines as the US dollar continues to strengthen, assisted by higher Treasury yields. Crude oil has fallen to its lowest level since January on concerns that a global slowdown will cut demand in Europe and the US – all this as China’s Covid strategy hurts consumption by the world’s largest crude importer. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on the tasks ahead for the UK’s new PM as well as the impact of growth and inflation on the bond markets generally.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

03:20 Market update with a fixed-income focus by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

05:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

New UK Prime Minister

Julius Baer — Tue, 06 Sep 2022 08:43:55 +0200

Liz Truss has won the conservative party leadership election and will become the next Prime Minister in the UK. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, gives an update on the energy market. David Meier, Senior Economist, explains what the newly appointed British prime minister means for the country’s politics and the British pound.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

02:40 Energy update by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)

05:03 UK politics and GBP by David Alexander Meier (Senior Economist)

08:42 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

European energy news dominates market action today

Julius Baer — Mon, 05 Sep 2022 08:53:19 +0200

US market action started positive on Friday following the release of a better-than-expected US payroll report. However, concerns about interest rates being higher for longer and the news that Gazprom would indefinitely halt its key gas pipeline to Europe led to a sharp reversal in US equities. European equity markets are sharply lower this Monday morning on the energy developments. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, gave an update on US equity markets and the USD from a technical perspective.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:30 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

06:47 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Global bonds tumble into a bear market

Julius Baer — Fri, 02 Sep 2022 08:53:05 +0200

The global bond sell-off means they have now fallen into their first bear market for a generation. Today investors await the US jobs report for August. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:53 FX Update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions)

07:11 Digital Assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Two-year Treasury yield touches 3.50%

Julius Baer — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 08:57:20 +0200

Global bonds extend their sell-off, sending yields on two-year US Treasuries to a 15-year high. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, gives an update on the Oil & Gas sector, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:01 Oil & gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

06:28 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

08:52 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

US equities down for a third day in a row

Julius Baer — Wed, 31 Aug 2022 09:01:21 +0200

Global financial markets are in defensive mode, after US equities were lower for a third day in a row yesterday, and commodities experienced their biggest single drop yesterday since early July. On the bright side, US gasoline prices are now below levels the day the war in Ukraine started, giving a boost to consumer confidence. Economic data releases out of China and Japan came in better than expected. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, explains how the EUR is caught between the ECB on a tightening course and high energy prices. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides his outlook in the year-end given the market turmoil.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:17 Currencies in the wake of Jackson Hole by Dave Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)

07:36 Year-end outlook: subsector overview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

10:02 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Markets still digesting Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 08:46:55 +0200

Stock markets are taking a small breather this morning, reassessing the situation after it took Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eight minutes to dictate the new normal with regard to the central banks’ inflation fighting plans. US Treasury yields are slightly down but the US yield curve is still heavily inverted. Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, explains where he see yields heading and whether it is time to ramp up exposure now.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:05 Jackson Hole and its aftermath by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)

09:03 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Markets reacting hawkish after Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Mon, 29 Aug 2022 09:02:08 +0200

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke on Friday, with the markets reacting hawkish to his comments. In Europe, natural gas prices posted the biggest weekly gain in two months surging to fresh highs. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives us a technical update.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:52 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

05:36 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Interest rate hawks and doves are waiting for Jerome Powell’s speech

Julius Baer — Fri, 26 Aug 2022 08:57:26 +0200

Global financial markets are awaiting today’s speech by Jerome Powell, while power prices in Europe continue to rise. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Solutions Geneva, looks at the major currency moves this week. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, shares his views on Ethereum and the upcoming ‘Merge’

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:16 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

06:57 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

10:48 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Markets are anticipating a more hawkish lean before Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 08:55:26 +0200

China is stepping up stimulus spending with a further 1 trillion yuan. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday, with the market anticipating a more hawkish lean to his comments. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on industrial metals and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO talks about what it means as markets are waiting for the next rate hike.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

02:50 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

05:40 IC Meeting Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

09:29 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Investors await Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Wed, 24 Aug 2022 08:43:27 +0200

With investors waiting for more clarity from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole Symposium and after some weak economic data, equities across the US and Europe largely retreated yesterday. The Euro has dropped more than 12% versus the US dollar since the beginning of the year and is now below parity. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, also shares his thoughts on Jackson Hole.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:59 Jackson Hole tremors by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The pressure on stock markets intensifies before Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Tue, 23 Aug 2022 08:52:29 +0200

Both equities and bonds have had a bad start to the week on rising fears of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivering a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he is scheduled to speak on Friday. The euro stays under pressure after falling to a two-decade low versus the US dollar yesterday. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, shares his views on equity markets going forward.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:18 Equity markets outlook by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

06:18 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Stock markets fear Jackson Hole

Julius Baer — Mon, 22 Aug 2022 08:42:53 +0200

Markets are starting the week on their back feet as investors remain nervous ahead of the central bankers’ yearly get-together in Jackson Hole at the end of the week. Chinese markets are in a better mood as loan interest rates there have been cut by major local banks. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes that there is more upside for stocks going into September.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

02:53 Technical view on the market by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

05:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

A rather muted week so far

Julius Baer — Fri, 19 Aug 2022 08:47:31 +0200

So far this week, US equity markets have been rather subdued, but a large number of options expiring today could stir some volatility. Trading was mixed in Asia today, and in Europe investors have to digest the record high inflation print of 8.9% in the eurozone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the world of digital assets.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:12 FX and commodities by Tim Gagie (FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

07:08 Broad crypto update by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

11:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

FOMC minutes show pace of rate hikes to eventually slow

Julius Baer — Thu, 18 Aug 2022 08:56:23 +0200

UK inflation data came in at another 40-year high for the year ending 31st July – on the back of this Treasuries sold off in the UK and also in the Eurozone. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were published yesterday and showed that officials agreed that the pace of interest-rate hikes will eventually need to slow down. Norbert Rücker, our head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on the energy market and Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides an update from the Investment Committee.

00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

03:52 Energy update by Norbert Ruecker (Next Generation Research)

06:40 IC Meeting Update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income)

09:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US retailers surprise positively

Julius Baer — Wed, 17 Aug 2022 08:59:07 +0200

US equities ended mixed yesterday, but were helped by better-than-expected results from large retailers. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its key policy rate to 3%. Maximiliano Ranieri, Structured Products Solutions Geneva, takes a closer look at the Brazilian market as the election campaign kicks off.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:19 Fixed Income Structured Products by Maximiliano Ranieri (Structured Products Solutions Geneva)

06:10 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Stocks rise despite weaker than expected economic data

Julius Baer — Tue, 16 Aug 2022 08:57:22 +0200

After a sloppy start, US equities managed to close higher yesterday, just below the 4,300-point mark – a level last seen in early May. Oil is lower again this morning on news of a slowing economy combined with a rising supply. Dr. Sophie Altermatt from Macro and Next Generation Research shares her thoughts on the Chinese economy, where data have mostly disappointed as of late.

00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:55 China by Sophie Altermatt PhD (Economic Research)

08:09 Investment Views – ‘The future is green’ and ‘Ready to rumble’ by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

09:39 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

China’s surprise move

Julius Baer — Mon, 15 Aug 2022 08:52:41 +0200

China’s central bank cut its policy rate by 0.1% as data highlighting its economic travails was released. Chinese bond yields and the offshore yuan fell. Asian stocks fell and the US dollar rose as investors reacted to the news. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, shares his thoughts on the markets from a technical standpoint.

00:09 Introduction & Markets Wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

03:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

04:58 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Inflation dictates market activity

Julius Baer — Fri, 12 Aug 2022 08:52:50 +0200

US equities saw a mixed trading session yesterday, where losses followed gains on speculation that the rally after softer-than-expected inflation data went too far. In Europe, the low level of the River Rhine and the fresh record for European power prices are causing concern. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the Ethereum network and its highly anticipated ‘merge’.

00:09 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:17 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

07:38 Digital Assets update by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

11:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Lower than expected US inflation print triggers massive stock market rally

Julius Baer — Thu, 11 Aug 2022 08:55:31 +0200

Surprisingly low inflation numbers for July in the US ignited a rally across risk assets yesterday. While US Treasury yields dropped only slightly, the US dollar gapped down versus most of its peers. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his take-aways from the inflation print and how the Federal Reserve is likely to proceed in its fight against sticky inflation.

00:09 Introduction by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:15 CPI update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:16 Investment Committee meeting update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy)

11:26 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

US tech stocks fall for a third day

Julius Baer — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 09:03:41 +0200

US stocks closed in the red as markets are eagerly awaiting the US CPI data release. China’s CPI already released showed an acceleration to 2.7% in July, its highest level in two years. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, speaks on the Inflation Reduction Act passed in the US and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, takes a closer look at fixed income markets in the context of US inflation developments.

00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:55 Markets wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

04:25 US Inflation Reduction Act – impact on equities by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

08:56 Fixed Income Research: CPI data release and fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

12:49 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Global stock market rally pauses

Julius Baer — Tue, 09 Aug 2022 08:53:43 +0200

European equity markets closed in the green yesterday, but in the US the major markets pared earlier gains and ended the day broadly flat, reflecting concerns around the economic outlook. Investors are also awaiting US inflation data that comes out tomorrow. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, also shares his thoughts on last week’s US Labor Market Report and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong provides an update on China.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:53 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:20 US Labor Market Report and the Fed by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:01 Hong Kong: China by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

11:51 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

The US economy has restored all lost jobs

Julius Baer — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 09:01:33 +0200

After the strong US employment report last week, inflation reports are on the table for major economies this week, including the US, Brazil, China and India. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, points out the dramatic improvement in the performance of US equities compared to safe-haven assets.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:59 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:19 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Strong US equities ahead of today’s US jobs report

Julius Baer — Fri, 05 Aug 2022 09:04:50 +0200

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up 19% since its low in June, just short of meeting the technical definition of a bull market. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, speaks about why it was a big week in the world of crypto as traditional financial institutions make their way into the crypto world, while concerns about the security of digital assets remain.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:21 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

10:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Risk-on mode continues

Julius Baer — Thu, 04 Aug 2022 09:21:02 +0200

Global stocks continued their advance yesterday, reducing year-to-date losses to about 15%. The Bank of England is set to deliver the biggest interest rate hike in 27 years. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Office, updates us on the latest CIO views.

00:18 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:34 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:38 IC meeting update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Office)

07:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in the limelight

Julius Baer — Wed, 03 Aug 2022 09:02:57 +0200

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan and promised that the US will not abandon Taiwan in the face of Chinese pressure. Market participants are weighing in on further developments and their implications. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials hinted at further interest rate hikes to fight inflation.

00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:44 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Stocks are in for a breather on geopolitical concerns

Julius Baer — Tue, 02 Aug 2022 08:58:49 +0200

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit of Taiwan has triggered a light rally in traditional safe havens, namely US Treasuries, gold, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Stock markets have not been able to hold on to their strong gains from July. David Kohl, Chief Economist, comments on the latest data with regard to economic growth in the US and Europe.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:45 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)

06:32 US and Euro-area GDP by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

09:36 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Q2 GDP figures well digested by investors

Julius Baer — Fri, 29 Jul 2022 08:59:17 +0200

US shares are on course for a seven-week high despite a disappointing US second quarter GDP reading. Strong earnings from Apple and Amazon spur further hopes that the tech industry can handle an economic slowdown. Sipho Arntzen, from Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on cryptos and details further developments on the regulation front.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

04:03 Crypto assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

07:52 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Stock markets spike despite the Fed hiking rates by 75 basis points

Julius Baer — Thu, 28 Jul 2022 09:01:09 +0200

Stock markets in the US rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a slowing pace of interest hikes on signs of an economic slowdown. The US dollar is lower while oil and gold are higher. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, comments on the first part of the earnings reporting season.

00:18 Introduction by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:31 Battery Metals Recycling by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:12 Earnings Update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)

09:30 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Investors await the FOMC decision

Julius Baer — Wed, 27 Jul 2022 09:12:43 +0200

Equity markets fell yesterday but there was positive news later on when Alphabet, Microsoft and Texas Instruments all reported double-digit quarterly revenue growth for the second quarter. Australia’s Q2 CPI was lower than expected and this resulted in investors abandoning their bets for a 75 bps hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, also shares his latest thoughts on the FOMC meeting and the fixed income space.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:39 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:19 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

A busy earnings day

Julius Baer — Tue, 26 Jul 2022 08:54:52 +0200

It was a quiet trading session on Monday as investors are waiting to assess a bundle of companies scheduled to report earnings today. Gazprom will once again cut gas shipments on the Nord Stream pipeline, creating a troubling prospect for the EU. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his thoughts on the Federal Reserve decision due out tomorrow.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

04:05 US monetary policy alert by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

08:37 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Fed in the spotlight this week

Julius Baer — Mon, 25 Jul 2022 08:57:53 +0200

Equities will be put to the test this week as the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points. In Asia, China is grabbing the headlines as it plans a fund to prevent a real estate crisis and solve the issues of US-listed Chinese companies. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, shares his thoughts on the market from a technical standpoint.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:55 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:25 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:29 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Will the global equity market rally continue?

Julius Baer — Fri, 22 Jul 2022 09:00:39 +0200

European stocks closed higher after the ECB raised its key rate by 50 basis points, whilst in the US, major indices point to a lower open today after disappointing results from Snap. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on digital assets, and the decoupling of token performances. Timothy Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, analyses the FX market’s reaction to the ECB’s interest rate move.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:43 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

03:42 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

07:34 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:10 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

All eyes on the ECB today

Julius Baer — Thu, 21 Jul 2022 09:00:19 +0200

In Europe, Italy and the UK are making political headlines as investors await the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision later today. Meanwhile, gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline resumed today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on gold and silver.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:14 Commodities by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:12 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Strong equity rally across the board

Julius Baer — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 08:58:35 +0200

Equity markets rallied yesterday and the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all traded above their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April. US Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, also shares his latest thoughts on the earnings season so far.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:40 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:47 Earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

07:44 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Stocks come under pressure in late trading amid worries on growth perspectives

Julius Baer — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 09:01:46 +0200

The rally on stock markets has paused on Apple’s plans to slow hiring. The race for the succession of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister and leader of the conservative party is heating up with Rishi Sunak one of the favourites. Sophie Altermatt from Macro & Next Generation Research talks about our revised forecast for economic growth in China.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets Wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:13 China economy by Dr. Sophie Altermatt (Macro & Next Generation Research)

08:47 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

No summer lull yet on financial markets – politics rules

Julius Baer — Mon, 18 Jul 2022 09:17:27 +0200

Markets are trading up this morning with Chinese tech shares in the lead on better sentiment as local authorities promise to step up efforts to bolster economic support. The reporting season in the US is gaining steam with some financial behemoths publishing their Q2 results today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about where he sees markets heading from a technical point of view.

00:18 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:36 Markets Wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:10 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

06:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US dollar on a roll and oil below the 100 US dollar mark

Julius Baer — Fri, 15 Jul 2022 09:14:06 +0200

Stock markets recovered somewhat into the end of the US trading day. Main topics today are the US dollar’s rally, oil’s downturn, and the inverted yield curve in the US. Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the impact of the collapse of Mt Gox, once the world’s largest crypto exchange, on crypto assets.

00:17 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:56 Markets Wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

04:27 Currency Markets update / king dollar by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)

07:51 Crypto Markets / Mt. Cox by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

11:52 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US inflation data driving markets

Julius Baer — Thu, 14 Jul 2022 09:07:56 +0200

With US inflation hitting its highest level since November 1981 in June, markets are now speculating that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by one percentage point at its meeting in late July. Meanwhile, draft projections by the European Commission show that the eurozone’s rebound from the pandemic could be weaker than anticipated. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his view on the energy markets.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

00:54 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:37 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)

08:08 Investment Committee decisions by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)

11:36 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

Much-anticipated US CPI data out today

Julius Baer — Wed, 13 Jul 2022 09:00:36 +0200

Equity markets in the US fell yesterday but it was a mixed picture in Europe. CPI data for a number of European countries comes out this morning and then investors will be closely watching the US CPI figures, which are due out later today. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, also shares his latest thoughts on inflation and the fixed income space.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets Wrap Up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

04:53 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

11:09 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

The wait for CPI data spreads risk-off mode

Julius Baer — Tue, 12 Jul 2022 09:05:10 +0200

Global shares moved lower in anticipation of the much-feared inflation data due on Wednesday. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares further insights on the UK’s economic landscape considering also the resignation by Boris Johnson. Richard Tang, Head of Research Asia, updates us on the latest market action of Chinese equities.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:50 Markets Wrap Up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

04:34 GBP / UK politics by David Meier (Macro Research)

08:17 China equities by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)

12:03 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Risk-off this Monday morning, after a good week

Julius Baer — Mon, 11 Jul 2022 09:14:13 +0200

Equities are mostly lower in Asian trading following a report out of Shanghai that there has been a first case of the highly infectious BA.5 omicron sub-variant Sunday, which is stocking fears of further lockdowns. After the Nasdaq 100 had its best weekly return since August 2021 last week, our Head of Technical Analysis Mensur Pocinci gives his take on what this could mean for markets going forward.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:37 Markets Wrap Up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

05:11 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:48 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Sad news rattles early trading

Julius Baer — Fri, 08 Jul 2022 09:17:54 +0200

The shocking news of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe being shot injected uncertainty into the early trading session. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions, speaks about the euro, which has hit a 20-year low against the US dollar; and Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets and progress on the regulatory side this week.

00:19 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

01:04 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

04:23 FX and Commodity markets by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX&PM Solutions)

07:37 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)

11:55 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US Fed solidifies its resolve for higher interest rates

Julius Baer — Thu, 07 Jul 2022 09:10:38 +0200

In the US, a mixed response from Bonds and Equities to the Fed’s June minutes meeting made headlines. The Euro reaches a 20-year low, sliding towards parity with the Dollar, as investors fear the European economy’s lurch towards a recession. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on the recent slide of precious metals prices, notably the price of Gold.

00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

00:59 Markets Wrap Up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

04:24 Gold / Silver by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

07:41 Investment Committee decisions by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)

11:11 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)

Recession fears lead to yield curve inversion

Julius Baer — Wed, 06 Jul 2022 09:02:48 +0200

US technology stocks ended yesterday’s session higher as the yield curve briefly inverted; Asian markets fell in today’s trading as lockdown concerns resurged. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, talks about higher-than-expected inflation in Europe and what it means for central banks.

00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

00:44 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

03:43 European inflation by David Kohl (Macro Research)

06:33 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Inflation top of mind again

Julius Baer — Tue, 05 Jul 2022 09:33:42 +0200

While US markets were closed due to Independence Day, European markets, especially in the UK and Switzerland, staged a rally yesterday, driven by dip buyers. Today, it is all about inflation data with markets again being surprised by higher than expected inflation prints. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research puts it all in perspective and explains where he sees value.

00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

00:41 Markets Wrap Up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

03:32 US Government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

08:17 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Stocks up, yields down on Friday

Julius Baer — Mon, 04 Jul 2022 09:07:38 +0200

US equities posted solid gains on Friday, but the real action was in the bond market where growth concerns led to bond yields plunging. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his view on recent market developments, and shares what he is looking at.

00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

00:45 Markets Wrap Up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

04:49 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

07:29 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Trailer

Julius Baer — Tue, 31 May 2022 11:24:31 +0200

Moving Markets is a daily market news briefing from Julius Baer. Our experts discuss the latest market developments and put the headlines in perspective to set you up for the coming day. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.