Manifold

Embryo Selection and Frontier Genomics with Dr. Alex Young – #111

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 May 2026 05:05:00 -0400

Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer.

https://x.com/AlexTISYoung

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Alex Young Bio
(06:36) - Biobank Era Genetics
(10:49) - Missing Heritability Debate
(27:18) - Embryo Selection Controversy
(50:32) - Embryo Selection Backlash
(53:42) - Mexico City Admixture Study
(01:00:13) - Censorship Via Data Access Control
(01:05:02) - Battle With Cancer and Circulating Tumor DNA (ctDNA)

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Iran War is the First Missile War (crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast) – #110

Steve Hsu — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 05:00:00 -0400

Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it

reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and

the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific.

Links:
https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Missile War Reality Check
(01:49) - How the War Started
(04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations
(06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails
(14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship
(19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout
(33:44) - US Politics and Israel Lobby Aftershocks

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Dreamers and Doomers: Our AI future, with Richard Ngo – #109

Steve Hsu — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:00:00 -0400

Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for

his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from

OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on

forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His

debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI

and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22

science fiction stories that explore the psychological and

sociological impacts of advanced artificial intelligence.

On X: @RichardMCNgo

(00:00) - Richard Ngo Origins
(03:48) - DeepMind vs LLMs
(09:24) - OpenAI Futurist and AGI Risk
(39:17) - Machine God Tail Risk
(45:20) - Weird Futures and Normies
(51:28) - Alignment Research and Academia
(01:16:25) - Doomers vs Skeptics
(01:23:57) - Labs Governance Futures
(01:39:37) - Doom Scenarios Society

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China, Acceleration, and Nick Land - with Matt Southey – #108

Steve Hsu — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 05:00:00 -0400

Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here, and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai.

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:07) - China Trip: Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai
(03:16) - Tsinghua University: Talent
(09:02) - Robotics and AI research
(24:01) - Shanghai and Nick Land
(35:46) - Land’s Esotericism
(37:19) - Accelerationism and Orthogonality
(43:01) - Simulation Metaphysics and Physics
(54:36) - Dark Enlightenment and Inevitable Complexity

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Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan – #107

Steve Hsu — Thu, 12 Mar 2026 05:00:00 -0400

Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of

Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies.

Taylor on X:

https://x.com/TaylorOgan

Previous episodes with Taylor:

https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK

https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr

(00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan
(00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen
(02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained
(06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories
(18:26) - China Tech Reality Check
(36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging
(37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones
(41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance
(53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback

–

AI DOOM: Jesse Hoogland of Timaeus

Steve Hsu — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 05:00:00 -0500

This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI.

Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus, an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety. SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the loss landscape and internal structure in models. This connection is used to develop scalable, rigorous tools for evaluating, interpreting, and aligning neural networks. Jesse is one of the leading young minds in the new generation of AI safety researchers.

https://www.jessehoogland.com/

(00:00) - Jesse interview at FAR Labs, Berkeley
(00:54) - Introduction
(01:50) - From Physics to AI Safety
(08:36) - AI Is Dangerous
(26:08) - Funding, P(Doom), and Futures
(56:21) - Trauma and Safety Vibes
(01:00:39) - Asymptotic Guarantees Debate
(01:03:54) - Mapping the Safety Tribes
(01:26:09) - Timelines, AI Pause, and Failure Modes

–

Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105

Steve Hsu — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 05:00:00 -0500

Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.

This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI.

(00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105
(01:47) - Introduction and Welcome
(05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography
(08:48) - AGI House and collectives
(43:59) - AI and Scientific Research
(45:52) - Existential Risks and Doom
(54:14) - AI and Human Progress
(01:26:42) - Job Automation and Society
(01:31:35) - Future of AI and Technology

–

Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition – # 104

Steve Hsu — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 05:00:00 -0500

Links:

Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future

https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034

Dan's 2025 annual letter

https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

Related episodes:

Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome
(02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book
(05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape
(21:07) - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents
(47:59) - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua
(51:09) - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter
(52:56) - China's Market Competition and Innovation
(56:34) - AI, Automation, and Future Risks

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Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103

Steve Hsu — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 05:00:00 -0500

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.

Links:

Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72

Previous crossover episodes:

Weeks Where Decades Happen

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen

AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84

(00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103
(02:10) - US-China Economic Tensions
(05:45) - Technology and Strategic Shifts
(08:48) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy
(17:43) - Middle East Developments
(28:41) - US-China Competition and Taiwan
(33:44) - Venezuela and International Law

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Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – #102

Steve Hsu — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 05:00:00 -0500

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.

Links:

Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078

My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8

Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physics

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits
(03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare
(08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF
(20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO
(31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge
(55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026

–

Theoretical Physics With Generative AI – #101

Steve Hsu — Thu, 18 Dec 2025 05:00:00 -0500

All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.

Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!

He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters B after peer review. Remarkably, the main idea in the paper originated de novo from GPT-5.

Links:

X discussion - https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435
Companion paper: Theoretical Physics With Generative AI - https://drive.google.com/file/d/16sxJuwsHoi-fvTFbri9Bu8B9bqA6lr1H/view
Physics paper - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15935 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370269325008111
Related discussion of AI and theoretical physics with Prof. Nirmalya Kajuri (IIT) and Prof. Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL) - https://youtu.be/BRuDd3l0e3k
Related video: AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – Manifold #97 - https://youtu.be/8JeRCqNg7Rc

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Intro: AI discussion with specialized physics at the end
(03:40) - The current AI landscape for science: frontier models, Co-Scientist, and recent math breakthroughs
(11:01) - Why models help and why they fail: errors, deep confabulation, and the research risk
(15:54) - The Generator–Verifier workflow: how chaining model inference suppresses mistakes
(23:30) - Project origin: testing models on Hsu’s older nonlinear QM/QFT work
(30:35) - The “GPT-5 moment”: Tomonaga–Schwinger angle appears and produces the key equation
(40:35) - Wild goose chases & a practical heuristic: axiomatic QFT detour; Generator-Verifier convergence
(51:44) - Referee-driven test case: Kaplan–Rajendran model, past-lightcone geometry, and verification
(55:55) - Tooling & outlook: automation prototype, chaining into “supermodels,” where this is headed
(59:39) - Physics slides (advanced): TS integrability, microcausality, and why nonlinearity threatens locality

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Jeffrey Epstein, Israel, and Elite Power, with Murtaza Hussain – #100

Steve Hsu — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has broken

important stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussain

reports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeli

intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other

countries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, very

elite level.”

Links:

Drop Site News series on Epstein and Israel

https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israel

Former Israeli spy Ari Ben Menashe on Jeffrey Epstein

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1994046737040712144

(01:08) - Introduction
(02:20) - The Mission of Drop Site News
(06:00) - Epstein Emails
(15:28) - Epstein connections and elite power
(35:48) - Epstein and intel agencies
(39:54) - Ari Ben Menashe and the Iran Contra Affair
(42:21) - Media Censorship and Political Implications
(47:33) - The Future of Epstein Investigations

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Jian Lian on China's Industrial Policy and Global Strategy – #99

Steve Hsu — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.

Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Kyle Chan episode:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94

Chinese industrial maximalism:

https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics!
(05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation
(24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions
(34:13) - Venture Capital in China
(36:13) - Hard Tech Investments
(37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants
(44:28) - Future of China Technological Development

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98

Steve Hsu — Thu, 06 Nov 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.

Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376
X handle: @scotthortonshow

(00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98
(01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey
(04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media
(11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey
(43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma
(43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption
(46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations
(59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97

Steve Hsu — Thu, 23 Oct 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research, legal analysis, and complex document processing.

https://github.com/lyang36/IMO25/blob/main/IMO25.pdf

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1948189075707469942

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97
(00:57) - Prof. Lin Yang, UCLA
(04:27) - Journey from Physics to Computer Science: 2 PhDs
(11:15) - Transition to AI from Theoretical CS
(13:16) - AI Pipeline Math Olympiad: Gold Medal!
(28:23) - Probability Amplification
(29:00) - Applications in Industry and Legal Analysis
(29:58) - Challenges in Model Reasoning and Verification
(33:23) - Future of AI in Scientific Research and AGI Speculations

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

The Global AI Race: Z.ai and the View from Beijing — #96

Steve Hsu — Thu, 09 Oct 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.

https://chat.z.ai/
Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_org

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background
(05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges
(10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights
(34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China
(35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions
(39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC
(50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Seeking Truth From Facts: Weeks Where Decades Happen — #95

Steve Hsu — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts

The theme of this episode derives from Lenin:

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Steve and Alf discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology
(12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications
(20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement
(25:00) - Trump's South Asian blunder?
(32:14) - The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace
(40:01) - Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right
(46:12) - Bipolarity or multipolarity?

–

Kyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — #94

Steve Hsu — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other industries, such as semiconductors and biotechnology.

Kyle Chan writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure, particularly in China and India.

Personal website: https://www.kyleichan.com/

NYT op-ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.html

Lu Feng interview: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests
(05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development
(12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy
(37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism
(38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy
(41:33) - US-China Technological Competition
(59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Joleen Liang: 40M+ kids educated by adaptive AI — #93

Steve Hsu — Thu, 28 Aug 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to individual learning patterns.

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Joleen Liang: Co-Founder of Squirrel AI
(02:14) - Squirrel AI: Beginnings and scale
(14:44) - AI vs Human Teachers
(33:51) - Learning environment: tablet, headphones, human supervisors/analysts
(51:11) - Challenges and Opportunities in the US Market

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Max Dama on HFT: Millisecond Algos and Bid/Ask Dynamics — #92

Steve Hsu — Thu, 14 Aug 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.

A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.

https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617
http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdf

Steve and Max discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Max Dama's Early Life and Education
(02:19) - Journey into Trading and Career Development
(06:56) - The High-Frequency Trading Industry
(26:42) - Academic Foundations for Trading
(27:50) - Computer Science in Trading
(28:57) - Insights into the Trading Industry
(35:49) - AI and the future of HFT

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Andrew Song: Global Cooling with Sulfur Dioxide in the Stratosphere — #91

Steve Hsu — Thu, 31 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.

https://makesunsets.com/

Previous Manifold episodes on climate:

Steve and Andrew discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career
(06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience
(11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science
(32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions
(33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions
(36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits
(39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Challenges

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Manifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve — #90

Steve Hsu — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NX

The purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A
(02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics
(09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary
(29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities
(36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense
(45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips

Links related to Q&A:

Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207
Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12
Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367

China-US comparisons:

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Omar Shams: AI Founder and Google AI Agent Lead — #89

Steve Hsu — Thu, 03 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.

Steve and Omar discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI
(10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind
(16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs
(33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree
(42:58) - AI and The Workforce
(58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Patrick McGee: Apple In China — #88

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China.

“The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery.

Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373

(00:00) - Introduction to Patrick McGee and his Book
(03:05) - The Apple-Foxconn Partnership
(07:07) - China's Industrial Transformation and Apple's Role
(32:48) - Automation Challenges in Apple's Production
(34:50) - Chinese Innovation and Huawei's Rise
(36:15) - The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions
(38:08) - Apple's Internal Struggles and Future Outlook
(48:56) - Hidden gems in the book

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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GODZILLA DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?

Read TP Huang on X: https://x.com/tphuang

(00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87
(00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict
(02:15) - Details of the Air Battle
(04:40) - Expert Analysis by TP Huang
(08:34) - Analysis of Air Battle Tactics and Technology
(12:40) - Role of Chinese Technology
(16:13) - Implications for Future Warfare
(25:23) - Indian and Pakistani Military Strategies
(34:34) - Unexpected Aggression: India's Miscalculation
(36:52) - Pakistan's Strategic Restraint
(39:19) - The Rafale Controversy: A Deep Dive
(43:08) - Electronic Warfare: Myths vs. Reality
(52:31) - Future of Indian Air Force: Tough Choices Ahead

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Robots, Small Models, and RL with DeepSeek Alumnus Zihan Wang — #86

Steve Hsu — Thu, 22 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.

Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China
(11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US
(16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research
(31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints
(33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models
(34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws
(36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training
(47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture
(01:01:06) - Future of AI and Robotics

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85

Steve Hsu — Thu, 08 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.

Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan
(02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University
(05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation
(14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures
(41:48) - China's Auto Market
(42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism
(43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing
(44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains
(49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence
(51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Seeking Truth From Facts: AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics — #84

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:11) - China AI
(02:30) - DeepSeek
(04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance
(08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives
(12:54) - China Meritocracy
(24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China
(37:12) - European Defense and Security
(41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Incels, Evo Psych, and Modern Literature with ARX-Han — #83

Steve Hsu — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel'
(06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences
(13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism
(18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom
(26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships
(32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics
(40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth
(45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning
(48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness
(50:38) - Free Will and Determinism
(52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land
(58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization
(01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction
(01:16:45) - AI and Literature
(01:19:44) - AI and Human Meaning

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Callum Williams: Economics, AI, and Technological Progress — #82

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Mar 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:07) - US-Russia Relations
(03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy
(05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia
(09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion
(14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions
(29:37) - US Wealth Inequality
(40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States
(42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention
(45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior
(50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis
(53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence
(01:06:06) - Cultural Differences in Economic Growth
(01:10:48) - AI and Job Market Transformation
(01:13:50) - Challenges in AI Adoption
(01:15:16) - Consumer vs. Business Tech Adoption
(01:15:56) - Slow AI Integration in Businesses
(01:17:34) - AI in Customer Service
(01:23:48) - Resistance to AI
(01:26:36) - AI and Productivity
(01:37:35) - Debates on Technological Progress

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Misha Laskin, Reflection.ai — From Physics to SuperIntelligence

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Mar 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.

https://x.com/MishaLaskin

Steve and Misha discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education
(03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI
(05:47) - First Startup Experience
(07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning
(08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley
(14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind
(16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models
(26:42) - Challenges and Future of AI
(48:30) - Unique Perspective from Physics

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen, Part 2

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Feb 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation.

Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47

Steve and Taylor discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China
(04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact
(06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough
(11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development
(26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier
(38:01) - Huawei and PLA?
(40:49) - The Semiconductor Race
(43:13) - Huawei's accelerated chip development
(45:13) - Government's Role in Technological Advancements
(46:21) - China's Domestic Tech Ecosystem
(48:56) - Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship in China
(51:57) - Corporate Culture and Innovation
(55:48) - China's Competitive Edge in Various Industries
(01:00:00) - Perceptions and Realities of Chinese Tech
(01:08:37) - When will China be "investible" again for Western funds?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Ken Liu: Art in the Age of AI — #79

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Feb 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award.

He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School.

https://kenliu.name/

Steve and Ken discuss:

00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer

04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives

09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation

15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology

34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning

34:31 Technology Outstripping Science

35:22 AI and the Arts

38:30 The Future of AI in Art

42:44 AI's Role in Creative Processes

50:04 Art, Automation, and Society

57:31 Favorite Science Fiction and Fantasy

01:03:06 The Genius of Philip K. Dick

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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US-PRC Tech War: DeepSeek AI and 6th Generation Fighters — #78

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 Jan 2025 05:00:00 -0500

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power
(00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model
(02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute
(10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations
(15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
(34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology
(42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs
(46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes
(52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities
(01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments
(01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases
(01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China
(01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jim Haslam: Covid Origins and Coronavirus Genetic Engineering — #77

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Relevant links:

Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5
Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/
Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dp

Chapters:

(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam
(03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved"
(04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal
(08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses
(20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab
(24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak
(29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy
(36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection
(40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab
(44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology
(48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications
(50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery
(01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting
(01:19:41) - Unintentional vs. Intentional Engineering
(01:21:28) - Tracing the Virus to Wuhan, Patient Zero, and the Role of Danielle Anderson
(01:29:38) - Rocky Mountain Lab and Virus Processing
(01:36:32) - Animal Models, Engineering Aerosol Transmission
(01:42:23) - The Smoking Gun Email

Joscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Jan 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind.

Links of interest:

Steve and Joscha discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany
(06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy
(10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall
(14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences
(15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions
(19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models
(25:29) - Consciousness
(41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test
(43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology
(46:34) - The future of consciousness research
(48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering
(52:19) - AGI and humanity's future
(58:18) - Simulation hypothesis
(01:03:33) - Liquid AI: Innovations and goals
(01:16:02) - Philosophy of Identity: the Transporter Problem, Is there anything beyond memory records?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Adventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 05:00:00 -0500

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.

Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPod
Information Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw

(00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast
(01:19) - The education of a physicist
(10:53) - Computational genomics
(19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics
(26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation
(40:39) - University research administration
(45:05) - Reproducibility crisis
(57:58) - Impact of basic research
(01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research
(01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition
(01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics
(01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Dec 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi

Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.

Follow Pascal on X @Plottaz
Pascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies

(00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan
(14:17) - Neutrality in international relations
(20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality
(28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict
(37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality
(46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies
(47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes
(51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence
(56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics
(01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance
(01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia
(01:30:35) - Philippines' strategic dilemma
(01:36:26) - Concluding thoughts

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 05:00:00 -0500

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China
(02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality
(06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing
(15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture
(22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite
(27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China
(33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry
(35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements
(37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone
(41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph
(48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology
(51:16) - High-speed rail in China
(53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!

Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timeline

during this period.

PPP and US vs PRC Real GDP

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492

PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768

Note to retards, on "Chicoms":

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645

Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371

Me and He Jiankui:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262

Dali:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195

Lijiang:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057

MAGA on the Mountain:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674

Business-class lie flat seats on HSR:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977

Kumming:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273

Shanghai:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Letter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Nov 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.

Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi
01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now

06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing

12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people

19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis

30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy

31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness

34:13 Globalization and its discontents

40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism

45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life

58:09 Whither China? Xi Jinping

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Seeking Truth From Facts: Israel and Iran, Missile Defense, China Economic Development

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Oct 2024 05:00:00 -0400

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast.

(00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense
(13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis?
(21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine?
(25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline?
(30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame?
(34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant?
(41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision
(46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China?
(57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity?
(01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore?

Links:

Iran ballistic missiles and missile defense

https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile

Pershing 2 Missile

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316

Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowback

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154

India development

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1814994391502667953

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1815047688829706279

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Samo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70

Steve Hsu — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.

Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”

Steve and Samo discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis
(03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication
(06:37) - The Unique Culture of Silicon Valley
(12:53) - Inside Bismarck Analysis: Services and Clients
(21:35) - The Role of Technology in Global Innovation
(32:13) - The Influence of Rationalists and Effective Altruists
(48:07) - European Tech Policies and Global Competition
(49:28) - The Role of Taiwan and China in Tech Manufacturing
(51:12) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Alliances
(52:49) - China's Provincial Power and Industrial Strategy
(56:02) - Urbanization and Demography, Ancient Society
(59:41) - Intellectual Pursuits and Cultural Dynamics
(01:04:09) - Intellectuals, SF, and Global Influence
(01:13:45) - Fertility Rates, Urbanization, and Forgotten Migration
(01:22:24) - Interest in Cultural Dynamics and Population Rates
(01:26:03) - Daily Life as an Intellectual

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Deus Ex Machina: A Man, Machines, and God

Steve Hsu — Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:04:37 -0400

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.

I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!

Deus Ex Machina podcast:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background.
(11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC
(20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated
(35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance?
(45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy.
(48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans.
(56:52) - Genomic Prediction. Genomics of cognitive ability. Leftists holding back genetic science. PING = NIH-funded Pediatric Imagining, Neurocognition, and Genetics study. Stephen J. Gould was a fraud. Asian culture (pragmatic realism) and resistance to woken...
(01:05:20) - Physics and Free Will. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have an illusion of self?
(01:10:04) - Copenhagen Interpretation of QM: Is there true randomness in Physics? Many Worlds, Foundations of QM, and groupthink in modern physics.
(01:19:09) - Christianity, raised as a Methodist by my mother, whose family has been Christian since the 19th century. Religious Experience vs Physics viewpoint. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have mystical religious feelings?
(01:21:28) - Raising children, family, happiness, the meaning of life in view of my father's life
(01:24:34) - The meaning of life, "All is Vanity" (Ecclesiastes), Religion

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Seeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68

Steve Hsu — Thu, 12 Sep 2024 05:00:00 -0400

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.

Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853

Steve and Alf discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration
(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise
(02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics
(28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy
(32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future
(45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67

Steve Hsu — Thu, 29 Aug 2024 05:00:00 -0400

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.

Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica

00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland

02:04 deCODE genetics

05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik

11:56 Hyperscaling genAI

23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling

24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?

29:45 Quantum black holes

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66

Steve Hsu — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

0:00 Introduction

00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences

08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics

22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges

28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society

40:49 Fertility and Demography

48:37 Life as a Polymath

59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question

01:09:29 Audience Q&A

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

China Today: Myths and Realities — #65

Steve Hsu — Thu, 01 Aug 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.

00:00 Introduction

02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble

08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War

16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US

20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce

39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy

41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges

45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content

53:00 Freedom of expression

1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles

1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64

Steve Hsu — Thu, 18 Jul 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome
(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception
(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom
(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism
(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide
(54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

AI Global Odyssey: REAL Situational Awareness — #63

Steve Hsu — Thu, 04 Jul 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.

Chapters:

(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley
(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley
(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI
(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications
(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness
(51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race

Links:

Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361
AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUM
LLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blog
The Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7ch
Situational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62

Steve Hsu — Thu, 20 Jun 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.com
Philippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background
(00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey
(08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual
(46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy
(48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science
(56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives
(01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising
(01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War?
(02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61

Steve Hsu — Thu, 06 Jun 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.

Steve and John discuss:

00:00 Introduction

00:36 Early Career and Influences

02:10 The Investor Choice Problem

07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges

12:43 First Steps in Finance

30:39 Lehman Brothers

37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds

44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets

01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital

01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe Bonds

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 May 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.

Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_Hart
Amazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3

Steve and Molson discuss:

1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China

5:26 The IQ Question

13:19 Entrepreneurship and China

38:40 Selling on Amazon

48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon

50:40 The Future of Amazon

55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs

57:27 Understanding China

1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence

1:16:12 Personal and National Identities

1:18:45 Demographics: China's Future

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 May 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.

Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.

Steve and Jaan discuss:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor

02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety

04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution

05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium

07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration

13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions

26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes

36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally

39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future Directions

References:

Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Glenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58

Steve Hsu — Thu, 18 Apr 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.

Steve and Glenn discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China
(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy
(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital
(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures
(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies
(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures
(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China
(49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP
(56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant?
(01:17:26) - Future of China's Economy

References:

Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLuk
Glenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-gray
Munger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57

Steve Hsu — Thu, 04 Apr 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!

Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.

March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."

Links:

Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/
Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/
Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEU

Steve and Casey discuss:

0:00 Introduction

00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech

07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship

10:40 Terraform Industries

15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact

24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane

31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights

35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform

41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation

44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships

45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality

55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Mar 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/

Steve and Russell discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan

13:25 Hong Kong and finance

31:53 China property bubble

48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency

56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective

1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Mar 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Steve and Stephen discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background

5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets

11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement

20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration

23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement

27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions

30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets

31:47 Dating markets

32:53 The Art of PR

38:32 Global reach and community engagement

39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions

43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54

Steve Hsu — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.

He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.

Steve and Ray discuss:

0:00 Introduction

01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination

26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop

30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state

55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.

01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?

Books referenced in this episode:

JFK and the Unspeakable

https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886

Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy

https://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53

Steve Hsu — Thu, 08 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?

Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing

Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html

CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52

Steve Hsu — Thu, 25 Jan 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.

More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes

NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4

00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history

14:21 Sean's personal journey and career

21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG

24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom

28:45 The reality of human trafficking

31:40 Technology and law enforcement

44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media

01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51

Steve Hsu — Thu, 11 Jan 2024 05:00:00 -0500

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.

Previous episodes with TP include:

China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48
Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44

Steve and TP discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD
(08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology
(13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception
(29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle?
(33:36) - Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict
(36:15) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan
(42:44) - Amphibious landing, boots on the ground
(45:20) - Red lines and Taiwan independence
(48:38) - PRC nuclear weapons buildup
(51:17) - PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster
(59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China
(01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #50

Steve Hsu — Thu, 14 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.

https://research.gavekal.com/

Steve and Louis discuss:

(00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer
(14:42) - Founding Gavekal
(23:50) - Understanding China economic growth
(32:57) - China real estate market
(42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth
(48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies
(01:07:09) - China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt
(01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve.

Charles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — #49

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.

Lynk - https://lynk.world/

Steve and Charles discuss:

0:00 Introduction and guest background

1:27 Miller's early passion for space

3:54 Evolution of commercial space

6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX

8:01 The challenges of early stage startups

11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs

33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity

35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites

36:41 Competition with Starlink

39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk

47:04 Satellite technology and global competition

50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features

59:01 Advice for entrepreneurs

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

0:00 Introduction

2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles

6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market

9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market

14:41 Buying a car in China

27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries

30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China

40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving

50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving

59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid

1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #47

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.

Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.

Steve and Taylor discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China
20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism
33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR
56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits
1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — #46

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.

Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/

Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:
https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/

An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciences

Steve and Bharat discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:58 Karnad's educational background, nuclear research, journalism career

26:50 Refocusing India's defense posture from Pakistan to China

45:21 Why don't India and China have better relations?

53:33 India's nuclear arsenal

1:04:31 The mysterious death of Homi Bhabha, India's Oppenheimer

1:28:50 Land of subjugation, the caste system, and English as the language of Indian elites

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Yasheng Huang: China's Examination System and its impact on Politics, Economy, Innovation — #45

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.

Steve and Yasheng discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s
15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"
37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination
48:33 Impact of the exam system
57:04 China's innovation peak and decline
1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West
1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve?

Yasheng Huang at MIT
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huang

Web site:
http://www.yashenghuang.com/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

Steve and TP discuss:

0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology

5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC

23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics

28:21 Impact on Qualcomm

36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China

semiconductor companies

42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.

47:14 5G and Huawei

52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones

56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers

1:01:33 Chip War and AI model training

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Meritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #43

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.

Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing

CLA and College Learning outcomes:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.html

Harvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduate

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.html

Defining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html

Chapter markers:

0:00 Introduction

1:28 University of California system report and the use of SAT scores admissions

8:04 Longitudinal study on gifted students and SAT scores (SMPY)

12:53 Unprecedented data on earnings outcomes and SAT scores

15:43 How SAT scores and university pedigree influence opportunities at elite firms

17:35 Non-academic factors fail to predict student success

20:49 Predicted earnings

24:24 Measured benefit of Ivy Plus attendance

28:25 CLA: 13 university study on college learning outcomes

32:34 Does college education improve generalist skills and critical thinking?

42:15 The composition of elite universities: 4 paths to admission

48:12 What happened to meritocracy?

51:48 Hard versus Soft career tracks

54:43 Cognitive elite at Ivies vs state flagship universities

57:11 What happened to Caltech?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Aella: Sex Work, Sex Research, and Data Science — #42

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.

Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl

Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello

An earlier Aella interview with Reason:

https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/

Steve and Aella discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing
(12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting
(29:52) - Pimp culture
(38:01) - Seeking Arrangement
(43:50) - Cheating
(46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps
(51:49) - Incels and sex work
(56:24) - Porn and Gen-Z
(01:12:43) - Embryo screening
(01:21:43) - How far off is IVG?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

AI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — #41

Steve Hsu — Thu, 10 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.

Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.

Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.

0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background

18:02 Tim's interest in the efficiency and accessibility of large language models

38:05 Inference, speed, and the potential for using consumer GPUs for running large language models

45:55 Model training and the benefits of quantization with QLoRA

57:14 The future of AI and large language models in the next 3-5 years and beyond

Tim's site: https://timdettmers.com/

Tim on GitHub: https://github.com/TimDettmers

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Paul Huang, the real situation in Taiwan: politics, military, China — #40

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Jul 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.

Sample articles:

Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/

Steve and Paul discuss:

0:00 Introduction

1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan

4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese

15:02 Taiwan taboos: politics and military preparedness

15:27 Effect of Ukraine conflict on Taiwanese opinion

29:56 Lack of realistic military planning

37:20 Is there a political solution to reunification with China? What influence does the U.S. have?

51:34 The likelihood of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China

56:45 Honest views on Taiwanese and U.S. military readiness for a

conflict with China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Hanania & Rob Henderson: The Rise of Wokeness and the Influence of Civil Rights Law — #39

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Jul 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!

They discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses
17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?
29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action
35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action
41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed
44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling
50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions
1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males
1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West
1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests
1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move

LINKS

Richard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802

Richard Hanania’s newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/

The Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: https://www.cspicenter.com/

Rob Henderson’s newsletter: https://www.robkhenderson.com/

Rob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537

UATX: https://www.uaustin.org/forbidden-courses

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander (UCLA Law) on the Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling — #38

Steve Hsu — Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:34:04 -0400

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.

Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.

Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.

0:00 Introduction

1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling

4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision

7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling

11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling

16:59 The litigation landscape

21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system

32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?

38:02 The landscape of college admissions

44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher education

LINKS

SCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdf

Richard Sander’s amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1199/222805/20220509134743957_20-1199%2021-707%20Amicus%20BOM.pdf

Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-unc

Richard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

AI Cambrian Explosion: Conversation With Three AI Engineers — #37

Steve Hsu — Thu, 08 Jun 2023 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.

0:00 Introduction

1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI

14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?

30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?

34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside

41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment

Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.

Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35

Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30

ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-ai

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

David Goldman: US-China Competition, AI, Electric Vehicles, and Manufacturing — #36

Steve Hsu — Thu, 25 May 2023 05:00:00 -0400

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.

Steve and David discuss:

0:00 Introduction

2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia

16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis

23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy

29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power

36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market

38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China

45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind

52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition

1:04:07 Predictions for Taiwan

Links:

David Goldman in Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldman

Spengler column:

https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/

You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the World

https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetime

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemma/

David Goldman articles in Claremont Review:

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldman/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35

Steve Hsu — Thu, 11 May 2023 05:00:00 -0400

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models.

Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing

Chapter markers:

0:00 Introduction

2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results

21:15 Embedding space, word vectors

31:53 Next word prediction as objective function

34:08 Attention is all you need

37:09 Transformer architecture

44:54 The geometry of thought

52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI

1:02:41 Hallucination

1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples

1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the future

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Simone Collins: IVF, Embryo Selection, Dating on the Spectrum, and Pronatalism — #34

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Apr 2023 05:00:00 -0400

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com).

Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone.

Steve and Simone discuss:

0:00 Introduction

1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening

40:02 Dating; girl autists

55:41 Finding a husband, systematized

1:09:57 Pronatalism

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

—

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Katherine Dee: Culture, Identity, and Isolation in the Digital Age — #33

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Apr 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.

Steve and Katherine discuss:

0:00 Introduction

1:15 Katherine’s early life and background

21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels

59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights

1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter

1:33:00 TikTok

1:41:41 Adderall

1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos

1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?

References:

Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/

“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: https://contra.substack.com/p/mass-shootings-and-the-world-liberalism

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Marc Martinez: "Dream Big" and the Golden Age of Bodybuilding — #32

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Mar 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.

Steve and Marc discuss:

(01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding
(05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California
(26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use
(33:52) - Frank Zane
(38:33) - Robby Robinson
(40:32) - Butler, Gaines, and Arnold
(42:46) - "Dream Big"
(48:18) - Pumping Iron
(59:44) - Hypersexuality in bodybuilding
(01:10:56) - What's next for Marc

References:

Watch Dream Big on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Dream-Big-Ken-Sprague/dp/B0B8ST5LNL/
Dream Big documentary: https://dreambigdoc.com/
Dream Big trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X22ISDn083A
Pumping Iron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lCCk6rgn84

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Gilles Saint-Paul: The Yellow Vests, French Politics, and Hypergamy — #31

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Mar 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.

0:00 Introduction

1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education

6:31 French and American higher elite education

14:44 The Yellow Vests

41:46 Mating and Hypergamy

References:

On the Yellow Vest Insurrection

https://gillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrection/

Genes, Legitimacy and Hypergamy: Another Look at the Economics of Marriage

https://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/9118.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.

00:00 Introduction

02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination

20:52 China demographics & STEM

34:29 China IVF

40:28 Survey on embryo screening in Science

References:

Bing vs Bard and Hallucination

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119

China demographics and STEM

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385

China IVF

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224
https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623478413758500864

Survey on embryo screening

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Feb 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT.

0:00 How do LLMs work?

10:22 Impact of ChatGPT

15:21 AI landscape

24:13 Hallucination and Focus

33:09 Applications

39:29 Future Landscape

References:

Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI:
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16

Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind:
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-future-of-thought-via-thought.html
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Dominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — #28

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Jan 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode.

Steve and Dominic discuss:

0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics

16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro

19:41 How Dominic and Steve became acquainted: blogs, 2008 financial crisis, meeting at Google

27:37 Vote Leave, the science of polling

43:46 Cambridge Analytica conspiracy; History is impossible

48:41 Dominic on Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of him and the movie “Brexit: The Uncivil War”

54:05 On joining British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office: an ultimatum

1:06:31 The pandemic

1:21:28 The Deep State, talent pipeline for public service

1:47:25 Quants and weirdos invade No.10

1:52:06 Can the Tories win the next election?

1:56:27 Trump in 2024?

References:

Dominic's Substack newsletter: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sahil Lavingia: Founding Gumroad, The Minimalist Entrepreneur, and our AI LLM future — #27

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Jan 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups.

Steve and Sahil discuss:

0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur
9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins
24:15 Backstory of Gumroad
30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad
37:09 Experiments with OpenAI LLM, ChatGPT, and the promise of AI

References:

Sahil's web page
https://sahillavingia.com/

Ask My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLM
https://askmybook.com/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Geoffrey Miller: Evolutionary Psychology, Polyamorous Relationships, and Effective Altruism — #26

Steve Hsu — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution.

For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29

Steve and Geoffrey discuss:

0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology
14:44 How evolutionary psychology is perceived and where the field is going
38:23 The value of higher education: sobering facts about retention
49:00 Dating, pickup artists, and relationships
1:11:27 Polyamory
1:24:56 FTX, poly, and effective altruism
1:34:31 AI alignment

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Anna Krylov: The Politicization of Science in Academia — #25

Steve Hsu — Thu, 01 Dec 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry.

Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters.

Steve and Anna discuss:

0:00 Anna Krylov’s background, upbringing in USSR

7:03 Ideological control and censorship for the greater good?

14:59 How ideology underpins DEI work in academic institutions

30:40 Captured institutions

37:05 How much is UC Berkeley spending on DEI, and where the money is going

41:46 Krylov thinks it can get worse

52:09 An idea for soliciting anonymous feedback at universities

Resources:

Professor Krylov academic page:

https://dornsife.usc.edu/chemistry/krylov/

Wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Krylov

The Peril of Politicizing Science, Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters 2021

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpclett.1c01475

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Abdel Abdellaoui: Genetics, Psychiatric Traits, and Educational Attainment — #24

Steve Hsu — Thu, 17 Nov 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.

Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.

Steve and Abdel discuss:

00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career
10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification
21:43 Correlations across geographical regions
33:21 Educational Attainment
38:51 Comparisons across data sets
44:48 Longevity
52:04 Reaction to NIH restricting access to data on educational attainment

Resources:

Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=en

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC

Steve Hsu — Thu, 03 Nov 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.

Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.

Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.

0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court

4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments

16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions

29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students

34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action

40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases

44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic

50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person

52:12 Mismatch theory

56:31 The future of higher education

Resources

Background on the Harvard case:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html

Transcripts:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/20-1199_6537.pdf

https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/21-707_m64n.pdf

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Discovering the Multiverse: Quantum Mechanics and Hugh Everett III, with Peter Byrne — #22

Steve Hsu — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine.

Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.

Steve and Peter discuss:

0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett

18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book

24:00 Everett and Decoherence

31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory

40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory

43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy

49:21 Everett’s post-academic life

52:58 How Hugh Everett is remembered now

References:

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Jeffrey Sachs: Lessons from the COVID Commission, Lab Leak Questions, and Nord Stream — #21

Steve Hsu — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.

Steve and Jeffrey discuss:

0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-19

13:41 Potential for bioweapons research

19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible

32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup

43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern

48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotage

Resources:

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19

pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltext

Why the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The US

Government Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic,

Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Rob Henderson: A Journey from Foster Care to the US Military to Elite Academia — #20

Steve Hsu — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.

Steve and Rob discuss:

00:00 Early life and foster experience

20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force

31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Yale and then Cambridge

44:04 Dating and socializing as an older student

50:06 Reflections on the Yale Halloween email controversy

1:01:10 Personal incentives and careerists in higher education

1:09:45 Luxury beliefs and how they show up in elite institutions

1:31:08 Age and moral judgments

1:42:50 Rob on resisting legacy academia and his future

Links:

Rob's substack

https://robkhenderson.substack.com/

Luxury Beliefs are the Latest Status Symbol for Rich Americans

https://nypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-are-the-latest-status-symbol-for-rich-americans/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Lyle Goldstein on U.S. Strategic Challenges: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Taiwan — #19

Steve Hsu — Thu, 08 Sep 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the nature of China-Russia relations in the 21st century. He has a longstanding interest in great power politics, military competition, and security in the pacific region.

Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at the Washington think-tank Defense Priorities, which advocates for realism and restraint in U.S.defense policy, and also a visiting professor at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. He earned a PhD at Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and an AB from Harvard. He is fluent in both Chinese and Russian.

Steve and Lyle discuss:

00:00 Early life and background

18:03 Goldstein’s dissertation on China’s nuclear strategy

37:35 Pushback on “Meeting China Halfway”

41:24 Could the U.S. have prevented war in Ukraine?

46:05 How territorial conflicts are influencing China’s relationship with Russia

1:00:16 Analyzing war games with U.S., China, and Taiwan

Links:

Watson Institute, Brown University

https://watson.brown.edu/china/people/lyle-goldstein

Meeting China Halfway (2015)

https://www.amazon.com/Meeting-China-Halfway-Emerging-US-China/dp/162616634X

Here's Why War With China Could Elevate to Nuclear Strikes

The National Interest, January 29 2022

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/heres-why-war-china-could-elevate-nuclear-strikes-200099

Goldstein's articles at The National Interest

https://nationalinterest.org/profile/lyle-j-goldstein

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Harvard Veritas: interview with a recent graduate (anonymous) — #18

Steve Hsu — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 05:00:00 -0400

The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly.

Steve and his guest discuss:

0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard

21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard

29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities

46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard

50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities

58:46 Competing with off-scale students

1:00:48 Ideological climate on campus, wokeism, and controversial public speakers

1:23:11 Dating at Harvard

1:26:52 Z-scores and other metrics to add to the admissions process

Harvard Admissions and Meritocracy:

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/09/what-is-best-for-harvard.html

Harvard Affirmative Action Lawsuit:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/09/former-yale-law-dean-on-harvard-anti.html

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/06/harvard-office-of-institutional_21.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Lowery: The War for American Universities — #17

Steve Hsu — Thu, 28 Jul 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus.

Links:

Richard Lowery at UT Austin:

https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/

National Review coverage:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texas/

Academic Freedom in Crisis:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Tim Palmer (Oxford): Status and Future of Climate Modeling — #16

Steve Hsu — Thu, 14 Jul 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute.

He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events.

He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability.

After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a large part of his career, Tim has developed ensemble methods for predicting uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts.

In 2020 Tim was elected to the US National Academy of Sciences.

Steve, Corey Washington, and Tim first discuss his career path from physics to climate research and then explore the science of climate modeling and the main uncertainties in state-of-the-art models.

In this episode, we discuss:

00:00 Introduction

1:48 Tim Palmer's background and transition from general relativity to climate modeling

15:13 Climate modeling uncertainty

46:41 Navier-Stokes equations in climate modeling

53:37 Where climate change is an existential risk

1:01:26 Investment in climate research

Links:

Tim Palmer (Oxford University)
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/find-an-expert/professor-tim-palmer

The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change (2019)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1906691116

ExtremeEarth
https://extremeearth.eu/

Physicist Steve Koonin on climate change
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/how-physicist-became-climate-truth.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Kishore Mahbubani: A Nuanced View of Asia & China's Rise — #15

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 Jun 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Kishore Mahbubani is Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

Kishore enjoyed two distinct careers: in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer and speaker on geopolitics and East-West relations.

He was twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.

Mr. Mahbubani joined academia in 2004, when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 2004 to 2017.

In this episode Steve and Kishore discuss:

0:00 Introduction

2:52 Upbringing in Singapore and Asia's rise

11:35 How western thinking influences China-U.S. relations

23:05 Is China a threat to U.S. hegemony in Asia?

25:52 The United States' long-term strategy for China

32:13 How trade with ASEAN influences U.S.-China relations

40:58 Can ASEAN countries play a diplomatic role between U.S. and China

43:05 Xi Jinping's leadership and the zero-sum view of China

Links:

Can Asians Think? - https://mahbubani.net/can-asians-think/

The Asian 21st Century - https://mahbubani.net/the-asian-21st-century/

Has China Won? - https://mahbubani.net/has-china-won/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Greg Clark: Genetics and Social Mobility — #14

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Jun 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University.

His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility.

Steve and Greg discuss:

0:00 Introduction

2:31 Background in economics and genetics

10:25 The role of genetics in determining social outcomes

16:27 Measuring social status through marriage and occupation

36:15 Assortative mating and the industrial revolution

49:38 Criticisms of empirical data, engagement on genetics and economic history

1:12:12 Heckman and Landerso study of social mobility in US vs Denmark

1:24:32 Predicting cognitive traits

1:33:26 Assortative mating and increase in population variance

Links:

For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 shows Genetics Determines most Social Outcomes
http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/ClarkGlasgow2021.pdf

Further discussion
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/03/genetic-correlation-of-social-outcomes.html

A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_Alms

The Son Also Rises
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Son_Also_Rises_(book)

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

John Mearsheimer: Great Powers, U.S. Hegemony, and the Rise of China — #13

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Jun 2022 05:00:00 -0400

This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine.

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.

Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.

Steve, Corey, and John discuss:

0:00 A quick message for listeners

1:21 Introduction

2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview

15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S.

21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky

29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies?

36:44 Will Europe become more united?

41:23 China’s ambitions

46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends

47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War?

51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competition

Resources:

John Mearsheimer - https://www.mearsheimer.com/

The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - https://www.amazon.com/Great-Delusion-Liberal-International-Realities-ebook/dp/B07H3XRPQS

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Theodore A. Postol: Nuclear Weapons, Missile Technology, and U.S. Diplomacy — #12

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 May 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology.

Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations.

After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.

He has received numerous awards, including the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society for "incisive technical analysis of national security issues that [have] been vital for informing the public policy debate", the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses", and the Richard L. Garwin Award "that recognizes an individual who, through exceptional achievement in science and technology, has made an outstanding contribution toward the benefit of mankind."

Steve and Ted discuss:

0:00 Introduction
2:02 Early life in Brooklyn, education at MIT, work at the Pentagon
20:27 Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense plan
28:26 U.S. influence on Russia and China’s second-strike capabilities
54:41 Missile defense: vs nuclear weapons, scuds, anti-ship missiles (aircraft carriers), hypersonics
1:11:42 Nuclear escalation and the status of mutually assured destruction
1:32:24 Analysis of claims the Syrian government used chemical agents against their own people
1:44:45 Media skepticism

Resources:

Theodore Postol at MIT
https://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/

A Flawed and Dangerous US Missile Defense Plan, G. Lewis and T. Postol, Arms Control Today
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010-05/flawed-dangerous-us-missile-defense-plan

Review Cites Flaws in US antimissile Program, NY Times May 17 2010
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.html

Improving US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy, G. Lewis and F. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, May 2018

https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/lewis-vonhippel-2018.pdf

“Whose Sarin?” by Seymour Hersh (2013)
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/whose-sarin

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Raghuveer Parthasarathy: The Four Physical Principles — #11

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 May 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World.

Steve and Raghu discuss:

1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics

20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems

26:06 - DNA prediction

37:46 - Machine learning / causality in science

46:23 - Scaling (the fourth physical principle)

54:12 - Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes

1:05:41 - Science funding, grants, running a research lab

1:09:12 - Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system

Resources:

Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning

Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/

Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - https://eighteenthelephant.com/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Carl Zha: Xinjiang, Ukraine, and U.S.-China relations — #10

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Apr 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia.

Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha.

Steve and Carl discuss:

1. Carl’s background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad

2. Xinjiang (35:20)

3. Ukraine (1:03:51)

4. China-Russia relationship (1:16:01)

5. U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Scott Aaronson: Quantum Computing, Unsolvable Problems, & Artificial Intelligence — #9

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally.

Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/

Steve and Scott discuss:

Scott's childhood and education, first exposure to mathematics and computers.
How he became interested in computational complexity, pursuing it rather than AI/ML.
The development of quantum computation and quantum information theory from the 1980s to the present. Scott's work on quantum supremacy.
AGI, AI Safety

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sebastian Mallaby: Venture capital as an engine of courage — #8

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Mar 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.

Biography:
https://www.cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallaby
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_Mallaby

The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future
https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Vlatko Vedral: Oxford Theoretical Physicist on Quantum Superposition of Living Creatures — #7

Steve Hsu — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Vlatko Vedral is Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford and Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore. He is known for his research on the theory of Entanglement and Quantum Information Theory.

Steve and Vlatko discuss:

History of quantum information theory, entanglement, and quantum computing
Recent lab experiments that create superposition states of macroscopic objects, including a living creature (tardigrade)
Whether quantum mechanics implies the existence of many worlds: are you in a superposition state right now?
Present status and future of quantum computing

Resources

Web page:

https://www.vlatkovedral.com/

Entanglement Between Superconducting Qubits and a Tardigrade

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.07978.pdf

Macroscopic Superposition States: entanglement of a macroscopic living organism (tardigrade) with a superconducting qubit

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/12/macroscopic-superposition-states.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or to Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, & Academic Freedom — #6

Steve Hsu — Thu, 03 Mar 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.

Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.

Topics discussed:

1. Early life: educational background and experience with race and

politics in America.

2. Mismatch Theory: basic observation and empirical evidence; Law

schools and Colleges; Duke and UC data; data access issues.

3. CA Prop 209 and Prop 16.

4. SCOTUS and Harvard / UNC admissions case

5. Intellectual climate on campus, freedom of speech

Resources:

Faculty web page, includes links to publications:

https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/richard-h-sander

A Conversation on the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Action in Higher Education Admissions (with Peter Arcidiacono, Thomas Espenshade, and Stacy Hawkins), University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law 683 (2015) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2625668

Fifteen Questions About Prop. 16 and Prop. 209, University of Chicago Law Review Online (2020)

https://lawreviewblog.uchicago.edu/2020/10/30/aa-sander/

Panel at Stanford Intellectual Diversity Conference, April 8, 2016, Stanford Law School

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RZbz-lHwVM

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Shai Carmi: Polygenic risk scores & embryo screening — #5

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Feb 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem).

Carmi Lab: https://scarmilab.org/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi

Topics and links:

Shai's educational background. From statistical physics and network theory to genomics.
Shai's paper on embryo selection: Schizophrenia risk. Modeling synthetic sibling genomes. Variance among sibs vs general population. RRR vs ARR, family history and elevated polygenic risk. (Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.05.370478v3)
Response to the ESHG opinion piece on embryo selection. https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi/status/1487694576458481664
Pleiotropy, Health Index scores.
Genetic genealogy and DNA forensics. Solving cold cases, Othram, etc. (Link to paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau4832)
Healthcare in Israel. Application of PRS in adult patients.

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Jon Y (Asianometry) on Semiconductor Tech and U.S.-China Competition — #4

Steve Hsu — Thu, 17 Feb 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack.

Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition.

Topics discussed:

Jon's background and his move to Taipei.
Key components of the semiconductor ecosystem: fabs, lithography, chip design.
US-China tech war
TSMC, ASML, Huawei
Taiwan politics: Green and Blue parties, independence
PRC invasion / blockade of Taiwan?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Hanania: Wokeness, Public Choice Theory, & Geostrategy — #3

Steve Hsu — Thu, 10 Feb 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.

He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.

Resources

Richard Hanania on Twitter - https://twitter.com/RichardHanania

CSPI - https://cspicenter.org/

Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy
https://www.amazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7S

The Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hanania
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UmdveWMURc&ab_channel=CSPI

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve Hsu Q&A: Complex trait prediction in Genomics, and Genomic Prediction / Embryo Selection

Steve Hsu — Thu, 03 Feb 2022 05:00:00 -0500

Steve answers questions about recent progress in AI/ML prediction of complex traits from DNA and applications in embryo selection.

Highlights:

Overview of recent advances in trait prediction
Would cost savings from breast cancer early detection pay for genotyping of all women?
How does IVF work? Economics of embryo selection
Whole embryo genotyping increases IVF success rates (pregnancy per transfer) significantly
Future predictions

Some relevant scientific papers:

Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy: New Methods and Higher Pregnancy Rates - https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html
2021 review article on complex trait prediction - https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.05870
Accurate Genomic Prediction of Human Height - https://www.genetics.org/content/210/2/477
Genomic Prediction of 16 Complex Disease Risks Including Heart Attack, Diabetes, Breast and Prostate Cancer - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-51258-x
Genetic architecture of complex traits and disease risk predictors - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68881-8
Sibling validation of polygenic risk scores and complex trait prediction - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69927-7

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.

ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

James Lee on Polygenic Prediction and Embryo Selection — #1

Steve Hsu — Mon, 24 Jan 2022 20:01:48 -0500

James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex.

Resources

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.

ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

Warren Hatch on Seeing the Future in the Era of COVID-19 – #50

Steve Hsu — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.

Resources

Leif Wenar on the Resource Curse and Impact Philosophy – #49

Steve Hsu — Thu, 04 Jun 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar’s thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve’s). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.

Resources

Transcript
Leif Wenar (Bio)
Blood Oil: Tyrants, Violence, and the Rules That Run the World
John Rawls – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Peter Nozick – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Michael Kauffman on Cancer, Drug Development and Market Capitalism – #48

Steve Hsu — Thu, 28 May 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey speak with Dr. Michael Kauffman, co-founder and CEO of Karyopharm Therapeutics, about cancer and biotech innovation. Michael explains how he and Dr. Sharon Schacham tested her idea regarding nuclear-transport using simulation software on a home laptop, and went on to beat 1000:1 odds to create a billion dollar company. They discuss the relationship between high proprietary drug costs and economic incentives for drug discovery. They also discuss the unique US biotech ecosystem, and why innovation is easier in small (vs. large) companies. Michael explains how Karyopharm is targeting its drug at COVID-induced inflammation to treat people with severe forms of the disease.

Resources

Transcript
Michael Kauffman (Bio)
Karyopharm’s Publications and Presentations
The Great American Drug Deal: A New Prescription for Innovative and Affordable Medicines by Peter Kolchinsky

Scott Adams on Trump, and his book Loserthink – #47

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 May 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott’s predictions, including of Trump’s 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump’s unique “skill stack”. Scott highlights Trump’s grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump’s policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.

Resources

Transcript
Scott Adams (Blog and Podcast)
Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America
Kihlstrom J. F. (1997). Hypnosis, memory and amnesia. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 352(1362), 1727–1732. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0155
Hypnosis and Memory (Blog Post)

James Oakes on What’s Wrong with The 1619 Project – #46

Steve Hsu — Thu, 14 May 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about “The 1619 Project” developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote.

Other topics: Northern power, Industrialization, Capitalism, Lincoln, Inequality, Cotton, Labor, Civil War, Racism/Antiracism, Black Ownership.

Resources

Transcript
James Oakes (Bio)
Oakes and Colleagues Letter to the NYT and the Editor’s Response (NYT)
The Fight Over the 1619 Project Is Not About the Facts (The Atlantic)
The World Socialist Web Site interview with James Oakes
Benjamin Lay, the first revolutionary abolitionist (Smithsonian Mag)
Oakes, J. (2016). Capitalism and Slavery and the Civil War. International Labor and Working-Class History
Wright, G. (2020), Slavery and Anglo‐American capitalism revisited . The Economic History Review
John J. Clegg, “Capitalism and Slavery,” Critical Historical Studies 2
Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2018. “Cotton, slavery, and the new history of capitalism,” Explorations in Economic History

For those interested in exploring Jefferson’s and Lincoln’s views further Professor Oakes recommends the following books:

John C. Miller, The Wolf by the Ears: Thomas Jefferson and Slavery
Graham A. Peck, Making an Antislavery Nation: Lincoln, Douglas, and the Battle over Freedom

Robert Atkinson on US-China Competition and Industrial Policy – #45

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 May 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.

Other topics: Forced technology transfer, IP theft, semiconductors and Micron technologies (DRAM), why the WTO cannot handle misbehavior by China.

Resources

Transcript
Robert Atkinson (Bio)
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)
Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Mythology of Small Business (MIT Press, 2018)
Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage (Yale, 2012)

Raman Sundrum: Physics and the Universe – #44

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 Apr 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination.

Resources

Vineer Bhansali: Physics, Tail Risk Hedging, and 900% Coronavirus Returns – #43

Steve Hsu — Thu, 23 Apr 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.

Resources

Transcript
LongTail Alpha
LongTail Alpha’s OneTail Hedgehog Fund II had 929% Return (Bloomberg)
A New Anomaly Matching Condition? (1993)

Jaan Tallinn: Coronavirus, Existential Risk, and AI – #42

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Apr 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?

Rationality

Additional Resources

Dan Gable: Legendary NCAA and Olympic Wrestler & Coach – #41

Steve Hsu — Thu, 09 Apr 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable’s sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable’s reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.

Resources

Transcript
Dan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video)
The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable’s senior NCAA season)

Klaus Lackner on Carbon Capture, Climate Change, and Physics – #40

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Apr 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.

Resources

COVID-19, Blockchain, and the Global Startup Scene – #39

Steve Hsu — Thu, 26 Mar 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.

Resources

Claude Steele on the Challenges of Multi-Cultural Societies – #38

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.

Resources

A.J. Robison on the Neural Basis of Sex Differences in Depression – #37

Steve Hsu — Thu, 12 Mar 2020 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.

Topics

01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression
13:54 – Nature of Mouse models
23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms
32:36 – Liz Williams’ serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex
45:47 – A.J.’s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up’s plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease
59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain Stimulation

Resources

Papers

Kaja Perina on the Dark Triad: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy – #36

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Mar 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.

Topics

2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad
11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people?
17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability?
35:16 – Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy
50:32 – Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today
1:01:06 – Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses

Resources

Adam Dynes on Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes – #35

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Feb 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.

Topics

1:22 – What is retrospective voting?
5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting
14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?
17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research
23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?
27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter
34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?
39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?
48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?
52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results
56:40 – Reactions to the results

Resources

Yang Wang on Science and Technology in China, Hong Kong Protests, and Coronavirus – #34

Steve Hsu — Thu, 20 Feb 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.

Topics

2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property?
16:23 – Academic Culture in China
33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors.
1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic’s trajectory.

Resources

Elizabeth Kolbert on Climate Change: Impacts and Mitigation Technologies – #33

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Feb 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?

Resources

Meghan Daum on the New Culture Wars – #32

Steve Hsu — Thu, 06 Feb 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book “The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars”. Meghan describes how she became aware of the “Red Pill” through what she calls “free speech YouTube” videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z’s focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.

Resources

Steven Broglio on Concussions, Football and Informed Choice – #31

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 Jan 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk with Steven Broglio, Director of the Michigan Concussion Center, about concussion risk, prevention and treatment. Broglio describes how the NCAA emerged from the deaths that almost led Theodore Roosevelt to outlaw college football. He also explains recent findings on CTE, why females may be at greater concussion risk, and why sleep is critical to avoiding long-term brain injury. They discuss how new rules probably make football safer and debate why New England is so down on kids playing football. Steve wonders whether skills are in decline now that some schools have eliminated “contact” in practices.

Resources

Barbara O’Brien on Race, Reform and Wrongful Conviction Rate Estimates- #30

Steve Hsu — Wed, 22 Jan 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Our guest, Barbara O’Brien, explains why we don’t know much about conviction error outside of murder cases, making error rates for the vast majority of crimes: misdemeanors, sexual assaults, armed robbery, etc. a “dark ocean”. She explains factors that contribute to wrongful convictions including mistaken cross-racial identification in sexual assault cases. Barbara also talks about the surprising frequency of “rain damage” to evidence rooms and why Texas leads the way in both executions and criminal justice reform. The two consider why having your death sentence commuted to life in prison means you are actually less likely to ever to be released.

Resources

Sebastian Junger: Meaning from War and Technological Isolation in America – #29

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 Jan 2020 07:00:00 -0500

This conversation occurred just after President Trump withdrew US forces from Northern Syria. Steve, Corey and Sebastian debate ISIS and the Kurds. Sebastian argues that men who went to war after 9/11 wanted to experience communal masculinity, as their fathers and grandfathers had in Vietnam and WWII, a tradition dating back millennia. When they came home, they faced the isolation of affluent contemporary American society, leading to high rates of addiction, depression, and suicide. War veterans in less developed countries may be psychologically better off, supported by a more traditional social fabric.

Resources

Zach Hambrick on Psychometrics and the Science of Expertise – #28

Steve Hsu — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 07:00:00 -0500

MSU Psychology Professor Zach Hambrick joins Corey and Steve to discuss general cognitive ability, the science of personnel selection, and research on the development of skills and expertise. Is IQ really the single best predictor of job performance? Corey questions whether g is the best predictor across all fields and whether its utility declines at a certain skill level. What does the experience of the US military tell us about talent selection? Is the 10,000 hour rule for skill development valid? What happened to the guy who tried to make himself into a professional golfer through 10,000 hours of golf practice?

Resources

Andrew Hartman: The Culture Wars Then and Now – #27

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 Jan 2020 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Andrew about his new introduction to his book “The War for the Soul of America.” While the left largely won the culture wars, the three wonder whether the pendulum has swung so far left that many liberals are alienated by today’s cultural norms.

Other topics: Was the left’s victory in the debate over the college curriculum pyrrhic? Is identity politics a necessary step in liberation or a problematic slide toward greater division or both? Are current students too sensitive, and easily triggered, to take the fight to the Billionaire class?

Resources

Bruno Maçães: China, Russia and the Future of Eurasia – #26

Steve Hsu — Thu, 26 Dec 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Originally from Portugal, Bruno Maçães earned a PhD in Political Science at Harvard under Harvey Mansfield, and served as Portugal’s Secretary of State for European Affairs from 2013-2015. He is regarded as a leading geopolitical thinker with deep insights concerning the future of Eurasia and relations between the West and China. He is the author of two widely acclaimed books published in 2018: The Dawn of Eurasia and Belt and Road.

Topics discussed include: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle Income Trap, A Chinese World Order, Techno-Optimism in East and West, China-Russia alliance and geopolitics, the future of Eurasia and the EU.

Resources

Ted Conover on Immigration, Prisons and 21st Century Homesteading – #25

Steve Hsu — Thu, 12 Dec 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Ted about his article for the August issue of Harper’s Magazine, “The Last Frontier”. Ted describes how Trump’s election led him to seek out his new project on people living off the grid in Colorado’s San Luis Valley (“Appalachia without the Trees”). The three discuss how immigration has changed since he wrote Coyotes in 1987. Ted explains how working as a prison guard in Sing Sing led to the uncomfortable realization that he was getting comfortable with unnecessary violence and offers advice to young people seeking to write interesting stories in the new media landscape.

Resources

Jason Snyder on Neurogenesis – #24

Steve Hsu — Wed, 27 Nov 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Jason about a fundamental question of neuroscience: Do humans grow new neurons as adults? The dogma that humans do not, gave way to the dogma that they do, which is now being questioned. Adult neurogenesis has been associated with learning, better cognitive function and resistance to depression. Jason suggests that a simple error of treating young mice as models for adult humans led to excessive optimism regarding the potential for later neuronal growth. Recent findings suggest that adults grow few, if any, new neurons but that what little neurogenesis occurs can probably be enhanced by exercise.

Resources

Timothy Searchinger: Biofuels vs Foods and Major Climate Change Policy Errors – #23

Steve Hsu — Thu, 14 Nov 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Steve and Corey talk to Tim Searchinger about the unintended consequences of biofuels policies. Searchinger argues that these policies do not consider the opportunity costs of using plants for fuel rather than food. Combined with crazy carbon accounting principles, existing rules make cutting down trees in the US, shipping them to Europe and burning them in power plants count as carbon neutral under the Kyoto protocol. The three also discuss how eating less beef in the developed world along with educating women, family planning, and reducing child mortality in the developing world can decrease stress on land use and emissions.

Resources

Jamie Metzl on Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity – #22

Steve Hsu — Thu, 31 Oct 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Jamie Metzl joins Corey and Steve to discuss his new book, Hacking Darwin. They discuss detailed predictions for the progress in genomic technology, particularly in human reproduction, over the coming decade: genetic screening of embryos will become commonplace, gene-editing may become practical and more widely accepted, stem cell technology may allow creation of unlimited numbers of eggs and embryos. Metzl is a Technology Futurist, Geopolitics Expert, and Sci-Fi Novelist. He was appointed to the World Health Organization expert advisory committee governance and oversight of human genome editing. Jamie previously served in the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a Human Rights Officer for the United Nations in Cambodia. He holds a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian history from Oxford University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.

Resources

Tyler Cowen on Big Business, Socialism, Free Speech, and Stagnant Productivity Growth – #21

Steve Hsu — Thu, 17 Oct 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Polymath and economist Tyler Cowen (Holbert L. Harris Professor at GMU) joins Steve and Corey for a wide-ranging discussion. Are books just for advertising? Have blogs peaked? Are podcasts the future or just a bubble? Is technological change slowing? Is there less political correctness in China than the US? Tyler’s new book, an apologia for big business, inspires a discussion of CEO pay and changing public attitudes toward socialism. They investigate connections between populism, stagnant wage growth, income inequality and immigration. Finally, they discuss the future global order and trajectories of the US, EU, China, and Russia.

Resources

Betsy McKay on Trends in Heart Disease and How to Avoid It – #20

Steve Hsu — Thu, 03 Oct 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk to Betsy McKay, senior writer on U.S. and global public health at The Wall Street Journal, about her recent articles on heart disease. Betsy describes how background reporting led to her article linking the recent drop in life expectancy in the United States, often attributed to the opioid crisis or increases in middle age suicides due to economic despair, to the increasing prevalence of heart disease, driven by the rise in obesity. The three also discuss current public health recommendations on how to reduce heart disease risk and on the use of calcium scans to assess arterial plaque buildup. Steve describes boutique medical programs available to the super-rich that include full body scans to search for early signs of disease. Betsy elaborates on how she approached reporting on a new study linking egg consumption to higher cholesterol and increased risk of death, a result at odds with other recent findings and national recommendations that two eggs a day eggs is safe and healthy. Finally, they consider whether people are wasting money on buying fish oil supplements.

Resources

Ted Chiang on Free Will, Time Travel, Many Worlds, Genetic Engineering, and Hard Science Fiction – #19

Steve Hsu — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey speak with Ted Chiang about his recent story collection “Exhalation” and his inaugural essay for the New York Times series, Op-Eds from the Future. Chiang has won Nebula and Hugo awards for his widely influential science fiction writing. His short story “Story of Your Life,” was the basis of the film Arrival (2016). Their discussion explores the scientific and philosophical ideas in Ted’s work, including whether free will is possible, and implications of AI, neuroscience, and time travel. Ted explains why his skepticism about whether the US is truly a meritocracy leads him to believe that the government-funded genetic modification he envisages in his Op-Ed would not solve the problem of inequality.

Resources

Rebecca Campbell on Identifying Serial Perpetrators, Rape Investigations and Untested Rape Kits – #18

Steve Hsu — Thu, 05 Sep 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Dr. Rebecca Campbell is a Professor of Psychology at Michigan State University, whose research focuses on violence against women and children with an emphasis on sexual assault. Steve and Corey discuss her recent National Institute of Justice-funded project to study Detroit’s untested rape kits. Dr. Campbell describes the problem of untested kits and her work with police departments around the country to reduce the backlog. She explains how the use of the national CODIS database has led to sharply higher estimates of the proportion of rapes committed by serial perpetrators and how many rapists appear to be criminal “generalists”, committing a wide range of offenses. She describes the dynamics of sexual assault investigations, the factors that lead police to put more effort into investigating certain cases over others, and how common ways of questioning women can lead them to disengage from the process. Other topics include the incentives at work in law enforcement, the slow pace at which new research in DNA testing and treatment of victims is incorporated into police training, and Dr. Campbell’s efforts to engage with law enforcement agencies to improve investigative practices.

RESOURCES

Papers

Other

Mark Moffett on the Life and Death of Human Societies – #17

Steve Hsu — Thu, 22 Aug 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey talk with Mark Moffett, Photographer and Research Fellow at the Smithsonian Institute, about his new book The Human Swarm: How our Societies Arise, Thrive and Fall. They discuss Mark’s view that being able walk into a cafe filled with others and not be attacked illustrates what makes human societies distinct and so successful. Mark explains why he is far more interested in questions about when war and other events occur than with traditional issues such as the genetic origins of human behavior. The three discuss Dehumanization and its Chimp equivalent, Dechimpanizeeization, and how they lead to the division of societies, friend turning against friend, and genocide. They discuss the conditions under which foreigners are embraced and whether the US might ever enter into a post-racial society where group differences don’t matter and immigrants are more easily accepted.

Resources

John Schulman: OpenAI and recent advances in Artificial Intelligence – #16

Steve Hsu — Thu, 08 Aug 2019 07:00:00 -0400

John Schulman is a research scientist at OpenAI. He co-leads the Reinforcement Learning group and works on agent learning in virtual game worlds (e.g., Dota) as well as in robotics. John, Corey, and Steve talk about AI, AGI (Artifical General Intelligence), the Singularity (self-reinforcing advances in AI which lead to runaway behavior that is incomprehensible to humans), and the creation and goals of OpenAI. They discuss recent advances in language models (GPT-2) and whether these results raise doubts about the usefulness of linguistic research over the past 60 years. Does GPT-2 imply that neural networks trained using large amounts of human-generated text can encode “common sense” knowledge about the world? They also discuss what humans are better at than current AI systems, and near term examples of what is already feasible: for example, using AI drones to kill people.

Resources

Daniel Max on Writing a Literary non-Fiction Classic and Prion Diseases Then and Now – #15

Steve Hsu — Thu, 25 Jul 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Daniel Max, staff writer at The New Yorker and author of Every Love Story is A Ghost Story, a biography of David Foster Wallace, speaks with Corey and Steve about his first book, The Family that Couldn’t Sleep. The discussion covers the emerging genre of literary non-fiction, Daniel’s process of writing The Family that Couldn’t Sleep, and how he approached and gained the trust of the family at the heart of the story. Corey probes Daniel about how he handled the complex scientific characters, Carl Gajdusek and Stanley Prusiner, who led research into prion disease for 40 years. Daniel recounts how Shirley Glasse (now Lindenbaum) discovered how prions were transmitted through ritual cannibalism in Papua New, a critical step in solving the mystery of what causes of the disease, but how credit was given to Gajdusek. The three discuss the painfully slow pace of research and the inspiring story of a young couple, Eric Minikel and Sonia Vallabh, who have changed careers to dedicate their lives to finding a cure.

Resources

Stuart Firestein on Why Ignorance and Failure Lead to Scientific Progress – Episode #14

Steve Hsu — Thu, 11 Jul 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Steve and Corey speak with Stuart Firestein (Professor of Neuroscience at Columbia University, specializing in the olfactory system) about his two books Ignorance: How It Drives Science and Failure: Why Science Is So Successful. Stuart explains why he thinks that it is a mistake to believe that scientists make discoveries by following the “scientific method” and what he sees as the real relationship between science and art. We discuss Stuart’s recent research showing that current models of olfactory processing are wrong, while Steve delves into the puzzling infinities in calculations that led to the development of quantum electrodynamics. Stuart also makes the case that the theory of intelligent design is more intelligent than most scientists give it credit for and that it would be wise to teach it in science classes.

Resources

Joe Cesario on Political Bias and Problematic Research Methods in Social Psychology – #13

Steve Hsu — Thu, 27 Jun 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward the left politically and that this affects how courses are taught and research conducted. Steve points out the university faculty on the whole tend to be shifted left relative to the general population. Joe, Corey, and Steve discuss the current ideological situation on campus and how it can be alienating for students from conservative backgrounds.

Resources

James Cham on Venture Capital, Risk Taking, and the Future Impacts of AI – Episode #12

Steve Hsu — Thu, 13 Jun 2019 07:00:00 -0400

James Cham is a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a venture capital firm focused on the future of work. James invests in companies applying machine intelligence to businesses and society. Prior to Bloomberg Beta, James was a Principal at Trinity Ventures and a VP at Bessemer Venture Partners. He was educated in computer science at Harvard and at the MIT Sloan School of Business.

Resources

Joe Cesario on Police Decision Making and Racial Bias in Deadly Force Decisions – Episode #11

Steve Hsu — Thu, 30 May 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve talk with Joe Cesario about his recent work showing that, contrary to many activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings. Joe discusses his analysis of national criminal justice data and his experimental studies with police officers in a specially designed realistic simulator. He maintains that evidence suggests that racial bias does exist in other uses force of force such as tasering but that the decision to shoot is fundamentally different and driven by facts about criminal context in which officers find themselves rather than race.

Resources

Ron Unz on the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, The Unz Review, and the Harvard Admissions Scandal – Episode #10

Steve Hsu — Thu, 16 May 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Ron Unz is the publisher of the Unz Review, a controversial, but widely read, alternative media site hosting opinion outside of the mainstream, including from both the far right and the far left. Unz studied theoretical physics at Harvard, Cambridge and Stanford. He founded the software company Wall Street Analytics, acquired by Moody’s in 2006, and was behind the 1998 ballot initiative that ended bilingual education in California.

Resources

Philosopher Sam Kerstein on the Morality of Genome Engineering, Inequality, and Star Trek – Episode #9

Steve Hsu — Thu, 02 May 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Corey and Steve speak with Samuel Kerstein, Professor of Philosophy and expert in Medical Ethics at the University of Maryland. They discuss the ethics of genome engineering and preimplantation embryo selection, and the inequality and narrowing of human diversity that might result from widespread adoption of these technologies. Among the topics covered: Why genome engineering at this time is immoral. Should we always pick the healthiest embryo? In the future will parents have a moral obligation to engineer their children? Will there be an arms race between countries to engineer their populations? Is Star Trek’s Khan a more advanced person (Steve) or just another smart psychopath (Sam) or both?

Resources

Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #8

Steve Hsu — Thu, 18 Apr 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Hossenfelder is a Research Associate at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies. Her research areas include particle physics and quantum gravity. She discusses the current state of theoretical physics, and her recent book Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray.

Resources

The Uncertain Future of Particle Physics (New York Times Article)
Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray (Book)
Transcript

David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species – Episode #7

Steve Hsu — Thu, 04 Apr 2019 07:00:00 -0400

David Skrbina is a philosopher at the University of Michigan. He and Ted Kaczynski published the book Technological Slavery, which elaborates on the Unabomber manifesto and contains about 100 pages of correspondence between the two which took place over almost a decade. Skrbina discusses his and Kaczynski’s views on deep problems of technological society, and whether violent opposition to it is justified.

Resources

John Hawks on Human Evolution, Ancient DNA, and Big Labs Devouring Fossils – Episode #6

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Mar 2019 07:00:00 -0400

Hawks is the Vilas-Borghesi Distinguished Achievement Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is an anthropologist and studies the bones and genes of ancient humans. He’s worked on almost every part of our evolutionary story, from the very origin of our lineage among the apes, to the last 10,000 years of our history.

Resources

John Hawks Weblog
Ghosts and Hybrids: How ancient DNA and new fossils are changing human origins (Research Presentation)
Transcript

Kaiser Kuo of Sinica on Modern China and US-China relations – Episode #5

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Mar 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Kaiser Kuo is a host and co-founder of Sinica, a current affairs podcast originally based in Beijing. Sinica guests include prominent journalists, academics, and policy makers who participate in uncensored discussions about Chinese political, economic, and cultural affairs.

Resources

Sinica Podcast
Personal Ties, Meritocracy, and China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign
“MMG | Kaiser Kuo” by Meet the media Guru is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
Transcript

Ted Schultz on Ants, Emergent Behavior, and the Molecular Revolution in Systematics – Episode #4

Steve Hsu — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve speak with Ted Shultz, research Entomologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. Ted is an expert in Leaf Cutter Ant evolution and systematics. Topics discussed include evolution, systematics, the genetic basis of behavior, E. O. Wilson and small revolutions in science.

Resources

Noor Siddiqui, Thiel Fellow, on Stanford and Silicon Valley – Episode #3

Steve Hsu — Thu, 07 Feb 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve interview Noor Siddiqui, a student at Stanford studying AI, Machine Learning, and Genomics. She was previously a Thiel Fellow, and founded a medical collaboration technology startup after high school. The conversation covers topics like college admissions, Tiger parenting, Millennials, Stanford, Silicon Valley startup culture, innovation in the US healthcare industry, and Simplicity and Genius.

Resources

Bobby Kasthuri & Brain Mapping - Episode #2

Steve Hsu — Thu, 31 Jan 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve are joined by Bobby Kausthuri, a Neuroscientist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago. Bobby specializes in nanoscale mapping of brains using automated fine slicing followed by electron microscopy. Among the topics covered: Brain mapping, the nature of scientific progress (philosophy of science), Biology vs Physics, Is the brain too complex to be understood by our brains? AlphaGo, the Turing Test, and wiring diagrams, Are scientists underpaid? The future of Neuroscience.

▶️ WATCH: Bobby Kausthuri & Brain Mapping — Episode #2

Resources

CRISPR Babies — Episode #1

Steve Hsu — Thu, 24 Jan 2019 07:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve discuss news of gene edited babies in China, and the future of human genetic engineering.

▶️ Watch: CRISPR Babies — Episode #1

Resources

Introductions — Episode #0

Steve Hsu and Corey Washington — Thu, 24 Jan 2019 05:00:00 -0500

Corey and Steve, friends for almost 30 years, introduce each other to the audience.

Caltech Traditions and Pranks
http://www.admissions.caltech.edu/exp...

Steve’s blog, Information Processing
http://infoproc.blogspot.com

man·i·fold /ˈmanəˌfōld/ many and various.

In mathematics, a manifold is a topological space that locally
resembles Euclidean space near each point.