Operation Epic Fury is over, we are told. The bombs landed. The headlines can move on. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz has become a checkpoint run by the IRGC — with US allies quietly filing the paperwork to get through.

This is your HyperNormal situation report.

In this solo ITCOM episode, Jeremy McKeown cuts through the noise to explain what the US-Israeli campaign against Iran actually achieved, what it failed to achieve, and what the aftermath reveals about the real state of Western power in 2026.

French diplomats negotiating with Iranian middlemen. Greek shipping companies submitting cargo manifests to IRGC checkpoints. Japan is in back channels with Tehran. America's closest allies are paying the toll — not because they want to, but because they cannot afford the alternative.

That's not a military failure. It's something more consequential: it's normalisation.

Jeremy covers:

• Why the Iranian Toll Booth is more consequential than a blockade
• The Western "clown show" response
• What the death of the petrodollar looks like
• Why this is the Suez Moment that nobody's calling a Suez Moment
• Where to position capital when the old maps stop working

Drawing on recent conversations with Doomberg, David Murrin, John Polomny, Charlie Garcia, and Michael Every — this is the episode for investors who want to understand the world as it is, not as the press conference says it is.

The liturgy continues. The faith is gone. Stay sharp.

In The Company of Mavericks | HyperNormalTimes with Jeremy McKeown

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

John Polomny didn't go to Georgetown. He didn't intern under a former Secretary of State. He joined the US Navy at 18, ran nuclear reactors, travelled the world on warships, opened a brokerage account at 15, suffered a 90% drawdown, and eventually became one of the most-followed independent macro investors on the internet.

Today, he runs Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack — covering geopolitics, resource investing, and the slow-motion unravelling of the Western-led world order. 

In this conversation, John and Jeremy discover they've independently arrived at the same framework to describe the world we're living in: hypernormalisation — the condition in which nobody believes the system anymore, but no one dares say so out loud.  It forms the basis of Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.   

Topics covered in this episode:

• How a working-class kid from rural South Florida built a lawn business at 14, joined the nuclear Navy, and became a self-taught value investor
• The 90% drawdown that changed everything — and what Charlie Munger, Howard Marks and Warren Buffett taught him about compounding
• Why John thinks we are already in World War Three — and what Leonid Brezhnev has to do with it
• The Strait of Hormuz, the petrodollar, Saudi Arabia's patience, and the slow death of the post-1973 energy order
• Oil sands investing: why Suncor, CNR and the Canadian oil majors were among the most undervalued assets in the world 
• The "Don Monroe Doctrine" — why the US is quietly retreating to the Western Hemisphere and what that means for Europe
• Frontier markets: Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Africa — and why John thinks a 22-year-old with ambition should be booking a flight, not polishing a CV
• Why Argentina's Milei experiment matters more than most might realise
• Vaclav Smil's EROI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) framework — and what medieval peasants can teach us about the energy transition

The line that sums up John Polomny:
"I don't want to get too radical here." He then does. Every time. That's the point.

Follow John's work at Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack and YouTube.

Keywords/tags: macro investing, geopolitics, oil investing, energy investing, value investing, Substack investing, self-made investor, US Navy, oil sands, Suncor, frontier markets, Argentina, Milei, Strait of Hormuz, WWIII, petrodollar, empire decline, hypernormalization, contrarian investing, independent investor, podcast

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Host: Jeremy McKeown Guest: David Murrin (Geopolitical Forecaster and Author) Release Date: March 26th, 2026.

Join host Jeremy McKeown on In the Company of Mavericks for a riveting conversation with geopolitical expert David Murrin. Discover why Murrin believes World War III has already begun, the inevitable clash between a declining America and an ascending China, and how understanding historical cycles like the "Five Stages of Empire" and the "K-Wave" can help us survive the turbulent decade ahead.

Episode Overview: In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, host Jeremy McKeown sits down with David Murrin, the renowned geopolitical forecaster, author of Breaking the Code of History, and founder of Global Forecaster. Known for his uncanny ability to predict global shifts by studying human behaviour and historical patterns, Murrin delivers a stark and urgent assessment of the world in 2026.

Murrin applies his unique behavioural models—including Isaac Asimov-inspired "psychohistory" and Kondratiev waves—to dissect the current global crises. From the ongoing proxy conflicts draining Western military resources to the looming technological singularity, this episode explores the mathematical certainty of empire cycles and what Western democracies must do to adapt and survive.

Key Topics Covered:

• World War III is Already Here: Murrin explains his controversial thesis that WW3 officially began with the invasion of Ukraine. He outlines the immediate military triggers and "pilot wars" that signal China’s imminent, kinetic move against the US and its allies in the Pacific.
• The Iranian Bear Trap: A deep dive into how the United States is currently entangled in an asymmetric war of attrition in the Middle East. Murrin discusses how Iran's use of cheap drones and mines is depleting US mid-course interceptors, creating a strategic opening for China's hegemonic challenge.
• The Five Stages of Empire & American Decline: Murrin breaks down his Five Phase Life Cycle model (Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and Decline/Legacy). He discusses why the US is firmly in the terminal decline stage, characterised by debt reliance and linear bureaucracy, while China is in the aggressive ascension stage.
• Linear vs. Lateral Leadership: Why are Western nations suffering from a plague of idiots in leadership? Murrin explains the symbiotic relationship between linear thinkers (who maintain the status quo) and lateral or dyslexic strategic thinkers (who drive adaptation and survive high-entropy events). He argues that elevating lateral thinkers is critical to surviving the current geopolitical crisis.
• The K-Wave Commodity Cycle & Resource Scarcity: An analysis of the Kondratiev commodity cycle, which Murrin predicts will peak between 2025 and 2030. Learn how the simultaneous implosion of the debt-fueled Doomsday Bubble and soaring food and energy prices will reshape global survival strategies.
• The AI Singularity & The Future of Warfare: Murrin assesses the risk of an AI singularity, driven by the escalating global arms race. He explores how hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and quantum technologies are permanently altering the fundamental Theory of Warfare.

David Murrin, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, Jeremy McKeown, Geopolitical Forecasting, World War III predictions, Five Stages of Empire, US decline, China hegemony, K-Wave commodity cycle, Iranian Bear Trap, Lateral vs. Linear thinking, Dyslexic Strategic Thinking, AI Singularity warfare.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Host: Jeremy McKeown Guest: David Murrin (Geopolitical Forecaster and Author) Release Date: March 26th, 2026.

Join host Jeremy McKeown on In the Company of Mavericks for a riveting conversation with geopolitical expert David Murrin. Discover why Murrin believes World War III has already begun, the inevitable clash between a declining America and an ascending China, and how understanding historical cycles like the "Five Stages of Empire" and the "K-Wave" can help us survive the turbulent decade ahead.

Episode Overview: In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, host Jeremy McKeown sits down with David Murrin, the renowned geopolitical forecaster, author of Breaking the Code of History, and founder of Global Forecaster. Known for his uncanny ability to predict global shifts by studying human behaviour and historical patterns, Murrin delivers a stark and urgent assessment of the world in 2026.

Murrin applies his unique behavioural models—including Isaac Asimov-inspired "psychohistory" and Kondratiev waves—to dissect the current global crises. From the ongoing proxy conflicts draining Western military resources to the looming technological singularity, this episode explores the mathematical certainty of empire cycles and what Western democracies must do to adapt and survive.

Key Topics Covered:

• World War III is Already Here: Murrin explains his controversial thesis that WW3 officially began with the invasion of Ukraine. He outlines the immediate military triggers and "pilot wars" that signal China’s imminent, kinetic move against the US and its allies in the Pacific.
• The Iranian Bear Trap: A deep dive into how the United States is currently entangled in an asymmetric war of attrition in the Middle East. Murrin discusses how Iran's use of cheap drones and mines is depleting US mid-course interceptors, creating a strategic opening for China's hegemonic challenge.
• The Five Stages of Empire & American Decline: Murrin breaks down his Five Phase Life Cycle model (Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and Decline/Legacy). He discusses why the US is firmly in the terminal decline stage, characterised by debt reliance and linear bureaucracy, while China is in the aggressive ascension stage.
• Linear vs. Lateral Leadership: Why are Western nations suffering from a plague of idiots in leadership? Murrin explains the symbiotic relationship between linear thinkers (who maintain the status quo) and lateral or dyslexic strategic thinkers (who drive adaptation and survive high-entropy events). He argues that elevating lateral thinkers is critical to surviving the current geopolitical crisis.
• The K-Wave Commodity Cycle & Resource Scarcity: An analysis of the Kondratiev commodity cycle, which Murrin predicts will peak between 2025 and 2030. Learn how the simultaneous implosion of the debt-fueled Doomsday Bubble and soaring food and energy prices will reshape global survival strategies.
• The AI Singularity & The Future of Warfare: Murrin assesses the risk of an AI singularity, driven by the escalating global arms race. He explores how hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and quantum technologies are permanently altering the fundamental Theory of Warfare.

David Murrin, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, Jeremy McKeown, Geopolitical Forecasting, World War III predictions, Five Stages of Empire, US decline, China hegemony, K-Wave commodity cycle, Iranian Bear Trap, Lateral vs. Linear thinking, Dyslexic Strategic Thinking, AI Singularity warfare.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, we are joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for a deep dive into the chaos of our current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. 

With over two decades of experience as an economist and strategist—including senior roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet—Michael brings a highly differentiated analytical framework that challenges traditional big-bank thinking.

Drawing on a diverse intellectual background ranging from early Marxist influences to firsthand observations of post-communist transitions, Michael exposes the critical flaws of neoclassical and neoliberal economics, arguing that the world is driven by raw power rather than by natural market equilibria.

Key topics discussed in this episode include:

• The Flaws of Traditional Economics: Why the neoclassical presumption of "mean reversion" and perfect market equilibrium fails to explain our current reality.
• Wave Theories of History: How alternative frameworks—such as Kondratiev waves, the Austrian business cycle, Dalio’s debt cycles, the Fourth Turning, and Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction—can help investors better navigate today's geopolitical tipping points.
• The US vs. China Hegemony: An analysis of shifting global power dynamics, China's neomercantilism, and whether the United States is facing a modern equivalent of the "1956 Suez Crisis".
• The De-Financialisation of the West: Why the West must urgently pivot from financial engineering and asset speculation toward re-industrialisation, commodities, and "economic statecraft" to compete with the East.
• The Middle East and Global Commodities: How the ongoing conflict in the Middle East ties directly into global struggles for control over base commodities, energy, and the future of the US dollar.
• The Realities of Artificial Intelligence: The physical resource constraints holding AI back (such as copper and electricity shortages), its impact on the labour market, and whether it will lead to a technological utopia or a dystopian cognitive decline.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get in Touch: If you enjoyed this episode, have feedback, or want to suggest a future guest, please reach out to host Jeremy McKeown via LinkedIn, Substack, or email at JeremyMcKeown@gmail.com.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and do your own research before investing in these crazy markets

BE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE VIA YOUR PODCAST APP OR ON SUBSTACK  

Michael Every on Geopolitics, Wave Theories, and the De-Financialisation of the West

In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, we are joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for a deep dive into the chaos of our current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. 

With over two decades of experience as an economist and strategist—including senior roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet—Michael brings a highly differentiated analytical framework that challenges traditional big-bank thinking.

Drawing on a diverse intellectual background ranging from early Marxist influences to firsthand observations of post-communist transitions, Michael exposes the critical flaws of neoclassical and neoliberal economics, arguing that the world is driven by raw power rather than by natural market equilibria.

Key topics discussed in this episode include:

• The Flaws of Traditional Economics: Why the neoclassical presumption of "mean reversion" and perfect market equilibrium fails to explain our current reality.
• Wave Theories of History: How alternative frameworks—such as Kondratiev waves, the Austrian business cycle, Dalio’s debt cycles, the Fourth Turning, and Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction—can help investors better navigate today's geopolitical tipping points.
• The US vs. China Hegemony: An analysis of shifting global power dynamics, China's neomercantilism, and whether the United States is facing a modern equivalent of the "1956 Suez Crisis".
• The De-Financialisation of the West: Why the West must urgently pivot from financial engineering and asset speculation toward re-industrialisation, commodities, and "economic statecraft" to compete with the East.
• The Middle East and Global Commodities: How the ongoing conflict in the Middle East ties directly into global struggles for control over base commodities, energy, and the future of the US dollar.
• The Realities of Artificial Intelligence: The physical resource constraints holding AI back (such as copper and electricity shortages), its impact on the labour market, and whether it will lead to a technological utopia or a dystopian cognitive decline.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get in Touch: If you enjoyed this episode, have feedback, or want to suggest a future guest, please reach out to host Jeremy McKeown via LinkedIn, Substack, or email at JeremyMcKeown@gmail.com.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and do your own research before investing in these crazy markets

Having advised six U.S. presidents, Charlie offers insights into the current Middle East crisis that are not merely speculative; they are informed by decades spent at the levers of power. This proximity grants him a "strategic map" allowing him to see through the fog of the US/Israeli bombing of Iran to identify the underlying structural shifts in the global order. For the investor, this episode serves as a masterclass in how kinetic warfare catalyses a broader, permanent shift in financial stability

Charlie Garcia

In today’s "crazy markets," the value of an analyst is directly proportional to the depth of their real-world experience. Navigating the intersection of war and finance requires a lens sharpened by high-stakes decision-making, making it essential to evaluate the pedigree of those providing the intelligence. Charlie Garcia’s history distinguishes him as a rare "maverick" in a field often saturated by desk-bound theorists.

The Garcia Pedigree

• Military Service: His analytical lens is fundamentally grounded in tactical military experience, providing a "boots-on-the-ground" realism to his geopolitical assessments.
• Advisory to Six Presidents: His role as advisor to six U.S. administrations has provided him with an institutional memory of American foreign policy that few can match.
• Commitment to Hard Assets: As an active investor, he practices a philosophy of tangible wealth, prioritising assets that survive the collapse of paper-heavy narratives.

Garcia’s writing style is a hybrid of a Tom Clancy thriller and the sardonic wit of P.J. O’Rourke, is more than a stylistic choice—it is a competitive advantage. In the "Digital Intelligence Era," this high-signal, narrative-driven approach ensures that high-density geopolitical information is not only absorbed but retained by the reader. Unlike sterile corporate reports, Garcia’s style translates complex theatre-level manoeuvres into actionable intelligence.

Capital Mischief

As traditional corporate filters increasingly sanitise geopolitical reporting to protect institutional interests, independent platforms like Substack have emerged as essential repositories for raw, unfiltered research. Capital Mischief represents the vanguard of this movement.

Core Differentiators

• Narrative Style: Garcia utilises a "Clancy-esque" narrative drive and sharp, sardonic wit to challenge conventional market wisdom, making the discovery of "hard truths" an engaging process.
• Responsiveness: During the recent US/Israeli/Iran escalations, Garcia moved into "overdrive," providing a kinetic stream of high-frequency situation reports that tracked the conflict's evolution in near real-time.
• Analytical Focus: The platform is designed for the deep-dive "sitrep," attracting a sophisticated audience that prioritises theatre-level situational awareness over daily ticker noise.

For Garcia, writing is more than a creative outlet; it is his primary tool for exploring the "emerging paradigm" and making sense of global chaos. His passion for the medium allows him to provide a level of dedication and depth that standard investment research simply cannot replicate.

This responsiveness proved particularly critical as global focus shifted abruptly toward the escalating hostilities in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Deep Dive: War in the Middle East and the Emerging Paradigm

The current theatre of war in the Middle East—specifically the US/Israeli bombing of Iran—is a strategic inflexion point for global financial stability. This escalation is not a temporary disruption but a fundamental shift in how risk must be priced in an era of active conflict.

Analysis of the Conflict

• The Iran Escalation: The bombing of Iran has moved the conflict from a proxy war to a direct kinetic confrontation, demanding the "seemingly endless" stream of situation reports provided by Garcia.
• Tactical Agility: The shift from the Caracas discussion to the Middle East theatre demonstrates that in the current paradigm, static investment theses are a liability.
• High-Signal Intelligence: Garcia’s reporting provides the context needed to understand if these escalations are localised events or the opening salvos of a larger systemic reconfiguration.

The "emerging paradigm" is defined by the transition from theoretical, "black swan" risk to active, theatre-level conflict. In this environment, investors can no longer treat geopolitics as a peripheral variable. It is the core driver of market movement, necessitating a shift from speculative paper assets to tangible hedges.

This geopolitical chaos creates an urgent requirement for a more robust investment posture focused on intrinsic value.

Investment Strategy: Hard Assets in "Crazy Markets"

As the old global order is disrupted, a defensive yet proactive investment posture is the only viable path forward. In "these crazy markets," where traditional paper-heavy portfolios face unprecedented volatility, Garcia’s focus on the tangible provides a necessary anchor.

Garcia’s Investment Priorities

1. The Case for Hard Assets: Garcia is a "committed investor" in this category, viewing hard assets as the ultimate hedge. When traditional narratives fail, assets with intrinsic, physical value are the only reliable store of wealth.
2. Navigating Uncertainty: Despite his deep expertise, Garcia maintains a professional discipline, urging listeners to seek personal financial counsel. This is not merely a disclaimer but a strategic imperative: in high-risk environments, bespoke advice is critical before committing capital.
3. The Emerging Paradigm Defined: This new landscape is the intersection of active kinetic warfare, independent intelligence, and a return to asset classes that retain value regardless of the stability of the global financial system.

The Bottom Line for the Professional Listener: The value of Charlie Garcia’s approach lies in the rare intersection of "information and entertainment." By eschewing the dry, sanitised prose of traditional research in favour of a maverick perspective, Garcia provides the tactical depth needed to survive—and profit from—modern volatility. To fully grasp the implications of the Middle East conflict and the shift in the global order, the full episode provides an essential exploration of these volatile times.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Capital Mischief is an ambitious investment Substack project from a man who served six US Presidents, was decorated by US military intelligence, is an entrepreneur and investor, and, now in his mid-60s, is developing a long-held ambition to write freely about what he sees happening in the world.    

Charlie's detailed briefings on the build-up to the early stages of the Middle East war have been informative, timely and highly entertaining. 

We had a great chat. 

Be sure to subscribe to receive the full episode dropping soon on a podcast app near you. 

Recorded on Tuesday, March 3rd, as the fog of war deepens, we dive into why oil prices are spiking and how the world’s reliance on fossil fuels is shaping modern warfare.

Doomberg delivers his signature "no-holds-barred" analysis from "fly-over country," using his unique mental models to strip away the mainstream narrative. We explore the massive disconnect between the information being fed to the public and the harsh realities of energy physics and geopolitics.

In this conversation, we cover:

• Operation Epic Fury: A day-three characterisation of the conflict.
• Energy as a Weapon: Why energy security is the ultimate arbiter of market stability.
• The Fog of War: Navigating misinformation and understanding the longevity of current market volatility in the age of algorithms. 
• Market Impacts: How investors should view the intersection of politics and commodities during periods of high tension.

Whether you're looking to understand the macroeconomic shift or seeking a "maverick" perspective on the green transition versus energy reality, this conversation provides a sobering look at where we are headed.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer:
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial or investment advice. Global markets are currently experiencing extreme volatility; please perform your own due diligence and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

How do you find the next "supernormal" company in a world of radical uncertainty? In this episode, we sit down with
Jamie Ward, author of the Wonder Stocks newsletter and a mathematician-turned-investor who survived the Global Financial Crisis.

Jamie shares his framework for identifying stocks capable of 20% compound growth and discusses the profound influence of
Nick Sleep (Nomad Capital) on his investment philosophy. We dive deep into why stock selection is about more than just "crunching numbers" and evaluate two specific UK-listed companies: Frasers Group (FRAS) and Wise (WISE).

We also tackle the controversial rise of passive investing. Jamie explains why he views index trackers as a "parasite" on market efficiency and how retail investors should navigate this shift to protect their capital.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

• How to filter for companies with 50x to 100x return potential.
• The specific stock selection criteria Jamie uses to find "Wonder Stocks."
• The bull case for Frasers and Wise.
• How to adjust your portfolio for the impact of passive flows.

Show Notes & Keywords

• Guest: Jamie Ward (Wonder Stocks Substack)
• Keywords: Value Investing, Compound Interest, Stock Market Strategy, Passive Investing vs Active Management, UK Stocks, Frasers Group Analysis, Wise Stock, Nick Sleep, Nomad Capital, Financial Markets.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

Jamie writes the Wonder Stocks newsletter with a focus on identifying compounding supernormal growth stocks, and he shares his thoughts on how to find these stocks. 

He also discusses the damaging impact of passive investing on the stock-picking process.  

Full episode to drop soon. 

Be sure to subscribe. 
     

In this episode, we dive into why global capital might be facing the wrong direction. We’re joined by Django Davidson, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Hosking Partners, to explore the Capital Cycle Theory—an investment framework made famous by Marathon Asset Management and financial historian Edward Chancellor.

While most of Wall Street obsesses over uncertain future demand, the Capital Cycle approach focuses on the one thing we can track: Supply.

In this episode, we discuss:

• The Mag Seven vs. Physical Reality: Why the chronic underinvestment in critical infrastructure is creating a massive valuation gap.
• The Chancellor Doctrine: Understanding why return on capital—driven by industry competition—is the ultimate north star for share prices.
• The Return of the Cycle: How the current market mirrors the dot-com boom/bust and why we are in the early phases of a long-term capital rotation.
• Supply over Demand: Why analysing where capital is flowing (or fleeing) is more effective than chasing quarterly earnings.

Django breaks down the "huge valuation discrepancies" waiting to unwind and why the next decade of investing won’t look anything like the last.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are volatile; please conduct your own research or consult a professional advisor before investing.

In his legendary book Capital Account, Chancellor said that:  Over the long run, it is a company’s return on capital, not changes in quarterly earnings, which primarily determines the direction of its share price. The return on capital of any company is largely subject to the state of competition within its industry.

Simple stuff, but this process happens in cycles; capital is attracted to higher returns and is withdrawn when returns fall. Critically, it is an approach to investing that focuses on supply conditions rather than expected but uncertain future demand. 

So, as capital cycle investing came into prominence during the dotcom boom and bust, it is unsurprisingly making a comeback today. 

And it is Django’s view that we are in the early phases of a new long-term capital cycle, and the world, as he sees it, has some huge valuation discrepancies to unwind. We had a fascinating chat.  

As recently as September last year, the gold price was $3,500/oz, silver was $40/oz, and a Bitcoin was priced at around $110,000. 

Since then Gold rose by over 50% to $5,400 / oz before correcting to $5,000 / oz or up 40%; silver rose nearly 200% to $115 / oz before correcting to $80/oz up 90% and while all this was going on the price of Bitcoin more than halved peak to trough before stabilising down 40% at c $70,000. 

So, why the volatility spike? What just happened to the debasement trade? Has the newly nominated Fed Chair changed everything? Is AI or quantum computing about to kill Bitcoin? Is the FT right? Is the Bitcoin price still $70, 000 too high?    

To help dig into what we have just experienced, I was joined last week by two friends of the pod and long-term advocates of precious metals and Bitcoin, so-called outside money, to try to better understand the drivers behind these volatile asset prices and how to assess where things might go from here. 

Dominic Frisby, of the Flying Frisby Substack, has written books on Bitcoin and gold, and multi-asset manager Charlie Morris of ByteTree is the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin & Gold) Fund, which recently launched on the London Stock Exchange. 

It was a timely discussion in which we tried to dissect the different drivers of these asset prices and what has changed as a result of these dramatic moves. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment too. You should seek personal financial advice and do your own research before investing a penny in these crazy markets.         

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Charlie Morris.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

My question to them was: WTF is happening to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and following their extraordinary price actions over recent months, where to now?

Please subscribe to ITCOM, where you listen to your podcasts, so you don't miss the full episode later this week, along with other great guests and topics lined up over the coming weeks.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

For this episode, I chat with Roger Lee, Head of Equity Strategy at Cavendish and a City veteran with almost 30 years in the equity market. 

Roger started his broking career with Cazenove, then worked at HSBC James Capel, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and, most recently, as Head of UK Equity Strategy at Investec.   

Roger is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, a Physics graduate and a frustrated Politician.

For this discussion, I wanted to talk to Roger about politics and how it has come to dominate markets over recent years. He puts today’s seemingly chaotic geopolitics and rather depressing UK domestic politics into a useful historical context. It was an absorbing and illuminating chat with some suggestions on how markets might play out over the coming months.
 

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it is for your information and, hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice and DYOR before investing a penny in these volatile markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Roger Lee. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

We had a great conversation, sharing views on how politics have impacted markets over the span of our professional careers. 

Particularly we discuss how we are in revelationary era for Davos Man, the global elite and the interests of the ordinary man. And how the West can no longer afford the cost of the state. 

Roger talks about his ideas of how Trump's policy volatility and the impact of the AI card cycle has and will continue to impact financial markets.

Dropping soon on all good podcast apps. If you want to listen to this and future episodes, be sure to subscribe to In The Company of Mavericks. 

– The Investment Wisdom of Richard Oldfield

Richard Oldfield, Founder of Oldfield Partners and author of Simple But Not Easy. 

We discuss the psychology of value investing, the structural flaws of modern asset management, and the challenges of navigating the bifurcated markets of the mid-2020s.

Episode Overview

In this episode, veteran investor Richard Oldfield debunks myths about the finance industry, arguing that successful investing is "simple but not easy." Drawing on decades of experience—from the 1970s inflation era to the AI boom of 2025—Oldfield explains why value investing is a character trait rather than a learned skill, why "doing nothing" is often the best strategy in a crisis, and why investors should treat the stock market like a casino where the odds vary wildly depending on which "table" you sit at.

Key Takeaways

Value Investing is In the Blood. Oldfield argues that true value investors are born, not made. It requires a contrarian temperament that naturally gravitates toward unloved assets—a trait that is "simple" to understand but psychologically challenging ("not easy") to execute.

Growth vs. Value. Oldfield believes value provides a "margin of safety" that prevents the ground from opening up beneath you, as it does with growth stocks. He discusses his view of an exciting future for value versus growth. 

Index Hugging. Oldfield is a fierce critic of large asset management firms, arguing they inevitably drift toward mediocrity and "index hugging" (mimicking the market to avoid being fired). He advocates small, independent firms that can maintain "distance" from the noise of Wall Street and the City, enabling independent thought.

A Checklist for Selecting Managers: When choosing a fund manager, Oldfield warns against relying on past performance, calling it a "trap". 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

To do this, we have a panel of industry insiders:

You will hear from Steve Whyman, who previously ran Fidelity International’s debt capital markets business, where he built their investment thesis for digital assets from scratch. Joining him is Ian Hunt, a 40-year veteran of the buy-side who designed the very first ledger for a tokenised fund launched in the UK market. Rounding out the panel is Marvin, an economist and returning "friend of the pod," who brings his critical geopolitical lens to the discussion.

Our guests argue that the current financial ecosystem is not just inefficient, but fundamentally "absurd", filled with intermediaries that add cost without adding value. They contend that we are standing at a precipice: we can either "retool" old processes with new tech, or undergo a paradigm shift toward "composability"—a system in which smart contracts self-execute and assets are built from the ground up as tokens.

This conversation goes far beyond technical theory.

The panel explores:

• How tokenisation will democratise wealth, allowing individuals to invest mere pence into equities, bonds, and private assets.

• The massive geopolitical threat to London’s dominance, as self-executing contracts may remove the need for English Common Law in global debt markets.

• How the rise of US-backed stablecoins could act as a foreign policy tool to counter China and destabilise economies in the Global South.

Stay tuned until the end for an existential risk to the Euro and the European Union: a flight to digital dollars could trigger a major liquidity crisis.

Joined by "friend of the pod" Marvin Barth of Seriously, Marvin? and Thematic Markets, we chat with digital assets specialists Dr Ian Hunt and Steve Whyman.  

We expose the "absurd" complexity and cost added by traditional intermediaries in the financial sector. Discover how blockchain technology acts as the ultimate disintermediator, democratising access to markets by allowing individuals to invest mere pence into equities, bonds, and private asset funds.

We dive into:

• The geopolitical impact of self-executing contracts, reducing reliance on traditional jurisdictions like the UK for global transactions.

• The rise of dollarised stablecoin economies in emerging markets such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and Argentina.

• Critical predictions regarding the potential "end of the European Union" and financial events that could make the Silicon Valley Bank collapse look minor by comparison.

Tune in to understand why financial markets designed for intermediation are facing a huge disruptive test. 

Keywords: Tokenisation, Blockchain, Fintech, Disintermediation, Stablecoins, Global Economics, Investment, Smart Contracts.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In this episode:
• Why Craig sees silver regulation or confiscation coming, or where we rip out solar panels for their silver content. 

• How Western policy has detached from real-world physics
• Lessons from 40 years of upgrading Asian manufacturing, banks & central banks
• Why “national capitalism” is the West’s last hope
• The real economic operating system we’ve forgotten

Timestamps:
0:00 – Intro & Craig’s background
4:44 – The West’s detachment from physical reality
12:24 – Silver: not a bubble, but a strategic signal
20:26 – National capitalism vs globalism
29.04 – Lessons from Asia’s economic transformation
38:03 – Final thoughts & provocative outlook

For information & entertainment only – not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a professional before investing.

Did you enjoy this? If so, please leave a 5-star review — it really helps the show reach more listeners! Subscribe for weekly deep dives into markets, economics and the investment world.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

According to Tindale, Western policymakers must evolve their mandates to reflect the hard physics of strategic rivalry and material constraint. If we continue to manage the economy as a stateless financial abstraction, we will enter the next decade of great-power competition with an operating system designed for a world that no longer exists. Power belongs to the system that aligns its money with matter first.

Please subscribe to make sure you get the full episode, dropping shortly.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Erik discusses his experience investing in Africa in the 20'teens and his involvement in what he calls Project Zimbabwe; don't think that we, in the West, are immune from our own versions of Project Zimbabwe. In Erik's view, we are, and counterintuitively, it partially explains Erik's current bullish stance on equities, with his framing of S&P 10,000 and how we can get there.

He also shares how his investing process identifies sectors and markets at inflexion points, and he currently sees energy (specifically oil and gas) as poised to join the commodity rally underway in metals and rare earths.

He also discusses how AI and robo-advisors might challenge the impact of passive investing on equity markets.   

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice; it's for your information and, hopefully, entertainment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Erik @ YWR.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Erik has a unique perspective on what he calls Project Zimbabwe, which he experienced firsthand while running an African fund in the 2010s, and it enables him to be more bullish than most investors about his call for the S&P to reach 10,000 in this cycle.

Erik's framework seeks out unloved areas of the markets and inflexion points to time his investments. He sees energy as offering such an opportunity at the moment. As he says, inflation-adjusted oil has rarely been cheaper.

But of course, none of this is investment advice. Please take personal financial advice before investing in these crazy markets.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

The answer is quite a lot, particularly regarding the importance of liberty and free markets, and how government overreach in economic matters results in long-term damage and decline.

However, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and other members of the so-called Austrian School have long occupied a fringe position in conventional economic thought, and their ideas have been excluded from policymakers' toolkits, which are dominated by the Keynesian framework.

But is this changing?

The evidence suggests it might be. The growing interest in non-state-backed money, the rise of social media platforms such as Substack, which provide outlets for new ideas, and, significantly, the Milei Revolution, now underway in Argentina, all point to a renaissance in Austrian economics.   

Javier Milei regards himself as an Austrian economist and cites, among others, Mises, Hayek and Murray Rothbard as his heroes, whose ideas changed his life. They may yet change the course of Argentina's history.

So, I was honoured when Dr Mark Thornton of Auburn University and the Mises Institute agreed to join me for a discussion on the Austrian School and its growth since the early 1980s. At that time, we were both undergraduates reading works such as Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, von Mises' Human Action, and Rothbard's Man, Economy & State. And it turns out that we may have met previously, 45 years ago. It is sometimes a small world.   

We had a great conversation in which Mark outlined his optimistic view of how Austrian ideas can help us understand the investment landscape, the broader significance of Milei's reform agenda, and our world where human action seeks opportunities in non-fiat money.

Mark's published works include The Skyscraper Curse: How Austrian Economics Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century. Additionally, articles, digests, and podcasts from the Mises Institute, which provides extensive freely available content for those keen to learn more about the Austrian way of thinking and its growing relevance to our times.

However, of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice but solely for your information and hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Austrian economist, Dr Mark Thornton.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

Hayek for the 21st Century: Essays in Political Economy/ Order a FREE copy of the book or multiple copies! Also, you can download the PDF and ePub versions using this link:  https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy

The answer is quite a lot, particularly regarding the importance of liberty and free markets, and how government overreach in economic matters results in long-term damage and decline.

However, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and other members of the so-called Austrian School have long occupied a fringe position in conventional economic thought, and their ideas have been excluded from policymakers' toolkits, which are dominated by the Keynesian framework.

But is this changing?

The evidence suggests it might be. The growing interest in non-state-backed money, the rise of social media platforms such as Substack, which provide outlets for new ideas, and, significantly, the Milei Revolution, now underway in Argentina, all point to a renaissance in Austrian economics.   

Javier Milei regards himself as an Austrian economist and cites, among others, Mises, Hayek and Murray Rothbard as his heroes, whose ideas changed his life. They may yet change the course of Argentina's history. 

So, I was honoured when Dr Mark Thornton of Auburn University and the Mises Institute agreed to join me for a discussion on the Austrian School and its growth since the early 1980s. At that time, we were both undergraduates reading works such as Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, von Mises' Human Action, and Rothbard's Man, Economy & State. And it turns out that we may have met previously, 45 years ago. It is sometimes a small world.    

We had a great conversation in which Mark outlined his optimistic view of how Austrian ideas can help us understand the investment landscape, the broader significance of Milei's reform agenda, and our world where human action seeks opportunities in non-fiat money. 

Mark's published works include The Skyscraper Curse: How Austrian Economics Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century. Additionally, articles, digests, and podcasts from the Mises Institute, which provides extensive freely available content for those keen to learn more about the Austrian way of thinking and its growing relevance to our times. 

However, of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice but solely for your information and hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Austrian economist, Dr Mark Thornton.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

Hayek for the 21st Century: Essays in Political Economy/ Order a FREE copy of the book or multiple copies! Also, you can download the PDF and ePub versions using this link:  https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy

I wanted to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. I met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution. 

As I was researching an article about my visit, I read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023. 

In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view. 

I looked up Jeffrey on LinkedIn and asked him a couple of questions. It turned out Jeffrey was in BA and only a short walk from where I was staying, and the following day, he met me for lunch in the Argentinian November Spring sunshine. 

Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country. 

12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, I reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since we met, and how he sees things shaping up. He kindly agreed to record this interview. And this is what he told me. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Jeffrey Stout. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I wanted to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. I met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution. 

As I was researching an article about my visit, I read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023. 

In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view. 

I looked up Jeffrey on LinkedIn and asked him a couple of questions. It turned out Jeffrey was in BA and only a short walk from where I was staying, and the following day he met me for lunch in the Argentinian November Spring sunshine. 

Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country. 

12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, I reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since we met, and how he sees things shaping up. He kindly agreed to record this interview. And this is what he told me. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Jeffrey Stout. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.   

We had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

CEO Ed Hugo and CIO Alyx Wood have featured on previous episodes.

But today, Mark and I chat with Alyx about his approach to the UK, why he finds it an attractive market with his active contrarian long-short strategy, and which ideas he is currently most interested in and invested in. 

We had a great discussion, with Mark sharing his valuable perspective as a successful UK equity fund manager over many years, and Alyx talking about his investment process, the lessons he has learnt, and why he is now unemployable elsewhere, given how much fun he derives from doing what he is doing. 

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.

With that, please enjoy our conversation with Alyx Wood.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. 

Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. 

It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. 

In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. 

Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. 

Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. 

It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. 

In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. 

Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted. 

In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.  

So, I was delighted to be joined, last week, by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation. 

While we covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero.
 

While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs. 

As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it both entertaining and informative. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

UK energy policy is becoming a critical political battleground ahead of the next election, and the North Sea hydrocarbon industry is a focal point.

As Professor Sir Dieter Helm said this week in the Times,

"Global climate change won’t be mitigated by halting licences in the UK’s sector of the North Sea and instead importing oil and gas from elsewhere (including the Norwegian sector). Replacing North Sea gas with American LNG is environmentally much worse than “home-grown” gas. It also just makes the balance of payments worse, alongside all the imported gas from Norway and the imported electricity from Europe."

I recently spoke to Watt Energy consultant Kathryn Porter and Serica Energy plc CFO Martin Copeland to discuss this very issue. How long do we have to save the North Sea from this ideologically riven madness? What steps do we need to take to fix our astronomically high energy costs? Is the UK prepared to sacrifice its hydrocarbon industry to the gods of net-zero?

Coming soon, In The Company of Mavericks, on all good podcast apps ...

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is the so-called debasement trade over? Have we just seen another FOMO driven momentum bubble hit a blowout top?

Is that it for another decade? 

Of course, a bubble is a bull market that we are not involved in, and from the outside, the recent frenzy over gold is just another case of market hysteria, right? Conspiracy theories like the dollar debasement are just, well, conspiracy theories, right? 

This week I invited two long standing and respected sound money advocates to share their thoughts on gold, where it came from, where it might be heading and why. 

We had a great chat.  

Dominic Frisby has recently published his latest book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics & Power and is also the man behind the excellent Flying Frisby Substack …

Wealth manager Tim Price of Price Value Partners is also the author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, a rational guide to irrational financial markets.  

We discussed why gold is valuable, why the gold price has recently been so strong and how investors should think about gold as an investment asset class in a world of government deficits, spiralling debt and uncertain geopolitics

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; hopefully, it is informative and entertaining. Please take professional advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Tim Price   

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I asked them: Is the fiat debasement inevitable? Should we be buying the dip in precious metals prices? And much, much more ....

Don't miss it. Make sure you are subscribed, dropping soon on all good podcast apps. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

So, earlier this week I brought them together to share their views, one from the perspective of an experienced trade dispute lawyer and former policymaker in Berlin, the other a straight talking energy analyst and green chicken from his coop in mid-western American flyover country.

We discussed the factors that have led Europe to its current position, its role in a multipolar world, and its struggles to adapt to these new, urgent realities. 

I must warn you that the consequences they draw are not positive for Europe or its institutions, and they pull no punches in their delivery. In short, they agree that the consequences of current established European policies will likely lead to a collapse of the EU; a consequence of the delusion, incompetence and intransigence of its established political class. 

But as always, nothing you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but solely for your information and hopefully entertainment.

I began by asking each of them about the origins of the EU and how Europe got itself into the position it finds itself today. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Doomberg and Brawlster.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

So, earlier this week, I brought them together to share their views. We discussed how we got here, the main factors, and how Europe is positioned in the emerging multipolar world order. I must warn you, they don't hold any punches. 

Full episode coming soon, please subscribe. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

In this episode, we discuss Wise and Goodwin as examples of how very different businesses can compound growth. They share key characteristics, such as high return on capital, growth capacity and duration. 

Very often, these businesses are founder-led or family-owned, allowing them to pivot when circumstances change and take a considered long-term view about investing. 

We also discuss acquisitional compound growth typified by UK-listed Halma and Diploma, or North American-listed Constellation Software. These companies derive their compounding from making serial acquisitions funded from internally generated cash flows. 

Finally, we discuss those companies that might earn the serial compounder tag in the years to come.

But of course, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Mark Wharrier and Simon Young.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

What enables such businesses to compound? How can you identify their critical characteristics so that you can increase the odds of buying them at a fair or low valuation?

I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre and professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and spending their time searching the UK market for exactly these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity fund managers both started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock.

Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied current portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.

COMING SOON on all good podcast platforms ... subscribe to get more great episodes. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.         

Le Shrub uses humour and parody to highlight opportunities and turning points in financial markets, which he brings to life for his followers on his Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator website. 

We discuss the role of satire in understanding the stranger than fiction world we inhabit. Why it only makes sense when you realise it is all nonsense … and how his fictional characters, Klaus and the Pod Monkeys, can shed light on the investment landscape we inhabit.   

Shrub gives his thoughts on the asymmetry of global markets, why he thinks Nvidia Must Die and why currency debasement is a feature of the Golden Age of Grift, not a bug. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. 

Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Le Shrub.

I wrote about Satire & Investing as a tribute to Tom Lehrer, who died earlier this year, where I mentioned Le Shrub's great work.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Learn how he understands the world through satire and memes, as he says, 'nothing makes sense until you accept it's all nonsense.' 

Full episode dropping soon on all good podcast apps. Please make sure you're subscribed. 

Marvin is what I would call an evolved policy wonk. A PhD economist, Marvin’s career includes working for The Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements, the US Treasury Department and several major Wall Street banks.

He has a well-informed and holistic view of the world and its core drivers, which should be interesting to everyone, but particularly those of us trying to understand how to position long-term investment portfolios in these chaotic and challenging times.

I was keen to speak to Marvin about his Global Entropy framework, which he first outlined on his “paid for” Thematic Markets service two years ago, but has recently republished along with an epilogue on his non-paywalled Substack, Seriously, Marvin!

In a wide-ranging discussion, which I found challenging to edit, we discussed what Global Entropy is and how it has commonly been interpreted by differing versions of cognitive dissonance or derangements among universalist liberal elites.       

As always, what you are about to hear is not intended as advice, but rather for your enjoyment and hopefully, entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Marvin Barth.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin. 

Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues. 

Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.  

In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. 

What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state? 

Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.  

Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. 

However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin. 

Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues. 

Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.  

In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. 

What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state? 

Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.  

Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. 

However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”  

An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform? 

Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months? 

Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029? 

To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei? 

Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises, before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then, he has his doubts. 

We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer-term potential to global investors, who, after all, must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest in recently. 

We had a great discussion, but as always, none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”  

An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform? 

Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months? 

Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029? 

To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei? 

Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then he has his doubts. 

We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer term  potential to global investors, who, after all must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest recently. 

We had a great discussion, but as always none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.

Brought to you  by Progressive Equity.

A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”

The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. 

He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. 

He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. 

The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. 

We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. 

We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. 

We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. 

As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”

The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. 

He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. 

He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. 

The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. 

We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. 

We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. 

We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. 

As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Recently, I spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy.
 

Rufus Frazier has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world. 

In a fascinating discussion, we cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?   

Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China’s market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.

For example, China’s Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic. 

Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. 

Now comes the bit where I remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. Please take professional advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. 

Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.

He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. 

Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. 

However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. 

In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. 

As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.

He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results. 
 

Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  

And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

https://bold.report/

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Mini

https://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. 

Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.

He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. 

Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. 

However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. 

In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. 

As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.

He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results. 
 

Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  

And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

https://bold.report/

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Mini

https://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    

Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. 

Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. 

All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? 

These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves. 

Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates. 

For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. 

And before we get into it, here’s the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice, but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   

Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    

Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. 

Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. 

All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? 

These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves. 

Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates. 

For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. 

And before we get into it here’s the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   

Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.  

Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up. 

Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views. 

We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas.

Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail. 

Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.  

Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up. 

Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views. 

We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas.

Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail. 

Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

After Joe exited the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited him on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin; it was his passion and his specialist subject.

However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.

The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. 

The film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. 

For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. 

Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. 

Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. 

Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Having exited from the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited Joe on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin, it was his passion and his specialist subject.

However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.

The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. 

The 40-minute film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. 

For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. 

Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. 

Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. 

Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. 

He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. 

He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.

When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. 

He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. 

David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  

This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.

I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. 

I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  

As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. 

He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. 

He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.

When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. 

He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. 

David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  

This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.

I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. 

I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  

As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

Please make sure you are subscribed to enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Investing to capture the founder-led effect is a way to achieve an asymmetric return, with better downside protection in tough times and higher upside returns in good times. Sounds great in theory, but how do you go about it in practice?    

In this episode, I chat with a Chinese Australian who invests globally in founder-led companies.  

Lawrence Lam has run the Lumenary Global Founders Fund since 2017. As the name suggests, his process attempts to identify companies that are run for the long term and have the founder effect. 

So, what is the founder effect, and how can investors determine whether a management team has this elusive characteristic?  

Well, Lawrence has helpfully written a book called "The Founder Effect - The Three Pillars of Success in Founder-Led Companies." It’s a great read if you are trying to understand good long-term management decisions and how to spot them. 

This is a fascinating conversation with someone who loves what he does and scours the world’s stock markets to find his secret formula at work.  

We learn how he balances the less correlated world for opportunities to buy founder-led companies that offer good value, why China offers a great way to diversify a portfolio, how BYD is poised to become the next Toyota, and how meeting management might useful for understanding if the company is likely to do well next quarter, but not so useful for understanding whether it will compound for you over the next couple of decades.  

As Lawrence says, he looks for the long-term track record of key decision-making, simple organisational structure, skin in the game, and close alignment with shareholders. 

As always, none of what you are about to hear is financial or any other type of advice. It is hopefully entertaining and informative, but what you hear should not be used as the basis for an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. And with that …  

 Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Lawrence Lam.         

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Investing to capture the founder-led effect is a way to achieve an asymmetric return, with better downside protection in tough times and higher upside returns in good times. Sounds great in theory, but how do you go about it in practice?    

In this episode, I chat with a Chinese Australian who invests globally in founder-led companies.  

Lawrence Lam has run the Lumenary Global Founders Fund since 2017. As the name suggests, his process attempts to identify companies that are run for the long term and have the founder effect. 

So, what is the founder effect, and how can investors determine whether a management team has this elusive characteristic?  

Well, Lawrence has helpfully written a book called "The Founder Effect - The Three Pillars of Success in Founder-Led Companies." It’s a great read if you are trying to understand good long-term management decisions and how to spot them. 

This is a fascinating conversation with someone who loves what he does and scours the world’s stock markets to find his secret formula at work.  

We learn how he balances the less correlated world for opportunities to buy founder-led companies that offer good value, why China offers a great way to diversify a portfolio, how BYD is poised to become the next Toyota, and how meeting management might useful for understanding if the company is likely to do well next quarter, but not so useful for understanding whether it will compound for you over the next couple of decades.  

As Lawrence says, he looks for the long-term track record of key decision-making, simple organisational structure, skin in the game, and close alignment with shareholders. 

As always, none of what you are about to hear is financial or any other type of advice. It is hopefully entertaining and informative, but what you hear should not be used as the basis for an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. And with that …  

 Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Lawrence Lam.         

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Global investors are diversifying their portfolios. 

That is why I was keen to host this episode.

David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management and a seasoned emerging markets investor joins me for a fascinating discussion with Sean Peche, the manager of The Ranmore Global Equity Fund. 

Sean recounts how he honed his value investing credentials at Orbis after qualifying as an accountant in South Africa and before launching Ranmore in London in 2008.  

Sean has a first-hand take on how capital flows have shaped equity values and built up today’s imbalances. 

While relative value is not sufficient reason for capital to flow, it is a necessary pre-condition. Sean says there are now multiple reasons investors, typically fully loaded in the US market, want to recycle their capital.  

He talks about how he looks for value, why he has recently moved overweight in the UK, why emerging markets have many developed market characteristics, and why he doesn’t meet the management of the companies he invests in. 

As he says, he can best objectively determine the effectiveness of management by watching what they do, not necessarily by listening to what they say. 

Sean delivers a master class on the principles of value investing combined with an acute sense of how the world is changing and how best to load up on asymmetric risk opportunities that will likely operate in his favour as we confront an unforecastable future. 

Now, please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Sean Peche ..

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Global investors are diversifying their portfolios. 

That is why I was keen to host this episode today.

David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management and a seasoned emerging markets investor joins me for a fascinating discussion with Sean Peche, the manager of The Ranmore Global Equity Fund. 

Sean recounts how he honed his value investing credentials at Orbis after qualifying as an accountant in South Africa and before launching Ranmore in London in 2008.  

Sean has a first-hand take on how capital flows have shaped equity values and built up today’s imbalances. 

While relative value is not sufficient reason for capital to flow, it is a necessary pre-condition. Sean says there are now multiple reasons investors, typically fully loaded in the US market, want to recycle their capital.  

He talks about how he looks for value, why he has recently moved overweight in the UK, why emerging markets have many developed market characteristics, and why he doesn’t meet the management of the companies he invests in. 

As he says, he can best objectively determine the effectiveness of management by watching what they do, not necessarily by listening to what they say. 

Sean delivers a master class on the principles of value investing combined with an acute sense of how the world is changing and how best to load up on asymmetric risk opportunities that will likely operate in his favour as we confront an unforecastable future. 

Now, please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Sean Peche ..

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

By 2021, he had become a congressman, denouncing the political class as useless parasites who had never worked and thought only of self-enrichment. He assured his electorate that he would kick these criminals out. He didn't seek to lead lambs, he told them, but to awaken lions, and the lions he awoke were younger people attracted to his unique combination of in-depth economic knowledge and flamboyant shock-jock delivery.

While other politicians and the mainstream media depicted him as a performative clown, Milei had taught economics for twenty years and published over fifty academic papers. Unlike most academics, Milei was a showman, playing drums for a Rolling Stones cover band. He was an evangelist who sold out increasingly large venues, lecturing his audiences about the workings of the price mechanism, the moral justification for capitalism, and the crime of collectivism while raising a sense of moral outrage.

The coincidence of Argentina's economic cycle of despair with Milei's arrival as a chainsaw-wielding showman, backed up by the deep conviction that he knew the solution to his country's woes, unexpectedly led him to the highest office in the land in less than a year. Last December, he became Argentina's 59th president. He won the largest number of votes and the largest percentage of votes recorded in any election since the transition to democracy, but it came with only a minority position in the legislature.

This left him with an enormous challenge in executing his reforms, but despite this, his first year in office has been largely successful. Unanswered are the questions as to whether Milei's remedies will prove sustainable, whether this time will differ from all the other times, and whether he can end Argentina's era of missed opportunities. Can he continue painful reforms while remaining sufficiently popular to complete the project?

I spent a few days in Buenos Aries in early November to learn more about this man and the libertarian experiment he was implementing. I met several people there, including Robert Marstrand, an author and investor who writes the investment stack OfWealth. 

Robert has a background in investment banking and has lived in Argentina for 16 years. He was very generous with his time and explained the opportunity for Argentina and how investors might like to think about this Maverick nation with its maverick president.  

Please enjoy our conversation about Argentina and its maverick president. 

David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Investment Management recently joined me for a conversation with Richard Stuckey, the manager of the Ennismore Global Equity Fund, about managing such a strategy in smaller global companies.  

In this fascinating chat, Richard discusses different approaches to shorting equities and how they involve different approaches to risk management at the stock and portfolio levels. He outlines a couple of examples of stocks he and his team have successfully shorted that turned out to be deceptions. 

We then discuss two long positions he recently added to his portfolio. Genus, a UK–listed animal genetics company, Genus and Paradox Interactive, a Scandinavian-listed games publisher

Richard then discusses the geographic spread of his fund and how to think about market inefficiency driven by the rise of the mega-cap tech stocks, passive investment and meme-driven markets.

And… importantly, how to adapt investment strategy in a market that can remain inefficient for a long time. 

This is a masterclass in the often counterintuitive art of managing an absolute return strategy in a volatile and illiquid asset class. 

While not for everyone, it can offer downside protection in choppy markets while providing long-term exposure to quality compounding equities.

I must remind you that this is only for information purposes and is NOT investment advice. The views expressed in the podcast are personal to the contributors and do not represent Progressive Equity's views. 

Please enjoy our conversation with Richard Stuckey.

Made possible by Progressive Equity.      

Always interested in horse racing and betting on horses, Mark moved from traditional bookmaking into the emerging world of the internet in the late 1990s, building Sporting Bet into a high-growth AIM company, later acquiring US-facing Paradise Poker.

Things changed suddenly in the US online gambling market in 2006, and Mark eventually left Sporting Bet to focus on his racehorses and his family office. 

In 2002, Mark was named AIM Entrepreneur of the Year, and in 2015, his horse, Next Sensation, won Cheltenham. 

Mark has also had several winners as a venture capital investor and has several strategic public company investments. His wide-ranging portfolio includes interests in NASDAQ-listed Gambling.com and the UK-listed small-caps Gaming Realms, B90 and Good Life Plus. 

Among his private investments, Mark has stakes in platform, payment, ag-tech, and ed-tech businesses.  

He discusses his interest in quantitative analysis, improving operating efficiencies and working with entrepreneurs who are prepared to listen and take advice.

This is a fascinating conversation with many lessons and reminders of how technology can change industries AND how a changing regulatory environment can create radical uncertainty and existential risk. Mark talks openly about his eventful journey from a traditional bricks-and-mortar bookmaker to a seasoned VC and investor.    

I must remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice, but it is solely for your information and entertainment. Please take professional advice before investing your money in these crazy markets. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Mark Blandford.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

The main pillar of Dominic’s investment philosophy is based on gold and Bitcoin, and he has written extensively about both. 

He was an early adopter of real asset protection, writing a book on the role of Bitcoin ten years ago. 

I wanted to get his view on the role of real assets in investment portfolios and how investors might like to consider protecting their capital from fiat currency debasement.  

Dominic didn’t disappoint and added plenty of thoughts on politics, the prospects for liberty and some valuable health tips for the over 50s. Have you tried hanging from a high bar? It works for me. 

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Dominic Frisby.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

The main pillar of Dominic’s investment philosophy is based on gold and Bitcoin, and he has written extensively about both. 

He was an early adopter of real asset protection, writing a book on the role of Bitcoin ten years ago. 

I wanted to get his view on the role of real assets in investment portfolios and how investors might like to consider protecting their capital from fiat currency debasement.  

Dominic didn’t disappoint and added plenty of thoughts on politics, the prospects for liberty and some valuable health tips for the over 50s. Have you tried hanging from a high bar? It works for me. 

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Dominic Frisby.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Recently, there have been signs that Emerging Markets might be re-emerging. This year, there have been signs that the dollar’s dominance may not be so dominant. Following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, China announced an intention to add significant heft to its policy of loosening monetary and fiscal conditions in the world’s second-largest economy.   

Following an extended period of being considered uninvestable, Chinese equities had a near 30% bounce in a couple of weeks. Was this just some hasty short closing or a re-awakening of the biggest emerging markets? This is currently one of the fiercest debates among global investors.

I wanted to get the perspective of an emerging markets expert, so I was delighted to have the chance to speak with Leila Kardouche of Variis Partners. Leila is a veteran of the space, and she and her small team recently launched a new London-based emerging markets partnership. This partnership fills a space left by several high-profile investors who have recently left this area due to its long period of disappointing returns. 

In this episode, we learn about the structure of Emerging Markets and how benchmark indices such as the MSCI are not very helpful in uncovering the full potential of the growth opportunities often obscured within these markets. Among other things, Leila discusses how to evaluate political risk in this widely diverse range of markets as we tour what’s hot and what’s not in an investment universe covering 85% of the world’s population.  

Critically, Leila and the Variis team focus on stock selection. Leila discusses how the challenges of growing businesses in emerging markets have produced some very successful compounding growth opportunities. Yes, these companies have outperformed strongly even within markets like China, which has been disappointing overall.

For my recent Substack covering emerging markets, please see, Are Emerging Markets Re-emerging? 

Be sure you are subscribed to In The Company of Mavericks on your podcast app to avoid missing the next and future episodes.

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

Recently, there have been signs that Emerging Markets might be re-emerging. This year, there have been signs that the dollar’s dominance may not be quite so dominant. Following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, China announced an intention to add significant heft to its policy of loosening monetary and fiscal conditions in the world’s second-largest economy.   

Following an extended period of being considered uninvestable, Chinese equities had a near 30% bounce in a couple of weeks. Was this just some hasty short closing or a re-awakening of the biggest emerging markets? This is currently one of the fiercest debates among global investors.

I wanted to get the perspective of an emerging markets expert, so I was delighted to have the chance to speak with Leila Kardouche of Variis Partners. Leila is a veteran of the space, and she and her small team recently launched a new London-based emerging markets partnership, filling a space left by several high-profile investors who have recently left this area due to its long period of disappointing returns. 

In this episode, we learn about the structure of Emerging Markets and how benchmark indices such as the MSCI are not very helpful in uncovering the full potential of the growth opportunities often obscured within these markets. Among other things, Leila discusses how to evaluate political risk in this widely diverse range of markets as we take a tour of what’s hot and what’s not in an investment universe covering 85% of the world’s population.  

Critically, Leila and the Variis team focus on stock selection. Leila discusses how the challenges of growing businesses in emerging markets have produced some very successful compounding growth opportunities. Yes, these companies have outperformed strongly even within markets like China, which has been disappointing overall.

Be sure you are subscribed to In The Company of Mavericks on your podcast app to avoid missing the next and future episodes. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

We were reading a great new Substack called Sweet Stocks, which featured weekly in-depth write-ups of some fascinating quality compounding growth stocks. Not only were we impressed with Sweet Stocks’ quality, but the weekly publication cadence also meant it was the work of a highly experienced and disciplined analyst.   

A few weeks later, we chatted with Alex Sweet, the man behind the Substack, about what motivates his work, his investment philosophy, his analytical rigour, and, crucially, some of his UK stock ideas. 

Alex didn’t disappoint. He gave a masterclass on investing in quality compounding companies capable of “beating the fade” and on how he uses his fundamental analytical approach to find these anomalous gems globally. 

This episode teaches how Adam and Alex use similar, in-depth fundamental frameworks to derive different strategies. Adam focuses on contrarian deep value, while Alex focuses on growth at a reasonable price.

These two investors illustrate the type of discipline involved in professional investment analysis. They also share an interest in the crazy world of Ultrarunning. Alex talks about his newfound passion for the Backyard Ultra, an offshoot of the Barkley Marathons, an event he hopes to run 300 miles in three days later this year.

The stocks we cover in this episode are 4imprint, YouGov and Loungers. 

I must just tell you that the people on this podcast might own shares in the companies mentioned, but nothing you are about to hear is investment advice. The opinions expressed are purely the contributors' personal views and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or any other organisation mentioned in this podcast. I hope you find this content informative and entertaining. I learned a lot, but please take professional financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets.

I also wrote a Substack article about this podcast at HyperNormalTimes.

Made possible by Progressive Equity.

Alex discusses his background and investment philosophy, and we chat about three UK equities he has covered in his newsletters: 4imprint, YouGov & Loungers. 

COMING SOON on all good podcast apps.

Made possible by Progressive Equity 

He describes himself as a pragmatic, macro-informed, value investor.  

The Ruffer Investment Company is a billion-pound London-listed investment company with the simple aim of delivering consistent positive returns regardless of how financial markets perform with the ambition to protect and increase the real value of its investor's capital. 

A simple but challenging mandate. 

To achieve this distinctive objective, Duncan has a highly differentiated strategy and has constructed a portfolio that looks nothing like most portfolios. 

Since launch in the early 2000s, Ruffer has a good long term track record. 

However, over the last couple of years, performance has slipped as risk assets, particularly equities, have outperformed Duncan’s expectations.   

But Ruffer’s performance has a tendency, as Duncan says, to perform like ketchup coming out of a glass bottle. 

The events of early August, as the yen carry trade sent markets in a spin, offered a brief glimpse of the better times that might lie ahead for this fund. 

Duncan offers a master class in different, often esoteric, markets and how he has used instruments such as gold, FX, credit spreads, derivatives, inflation-linked bonds and even bitcoin to find uncorrelated returns and asymmetric and reflexive risk profiles. 

Duncan is positive on the outlook for gold, the yen, and commodities. However, he thinks investors are over their skis regarding US equities, specifically the Mag Seven. 

He is more positive about UK equities and describes why the consensual view that Chinese equities are uninvestable draws him to them. 

As he says, we are all invested in China already, but at several times the value of most Chinese stocks.

As always, nothing you hear in this podcast is investment advice, and all the views expressed by the contributors are in a personal capacity only and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or any other organization mentioned in this podcast.       

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Duncan MacInnes.   

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

He covers why he is so bullish on gold, gold miners, the yen and UK equities, and long Chinese equities, the ugliest in his portfolio of ugly ducklings.

He also riffs on the yen carry trade, Bitcoin, premium drinks, and how we might know we are nearer the top than the bottom of the current equity market cycle.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.   

We have a fascinating conversation with Ami Daniel, the co-founder and CEO of AIM-listed Windward.

Windward is a 14-year-old company that provides B2B data and software solutions. It helps governments and businesses track, manage, comply with, and protect maritime assets worldwide. Its solutions provide awareness and insights into what Ami calls the problem of big oceans and small ships.

Windward was listed on AIM in 2021 and is currently valued at £120m. 

Ami is a high-energy entrepreneur. Having survived a near-death experience while serving in the Israeli Navy in 2006, he has established Windward as a high-growth, recurring revenue company with a large addressable market. Ami is one of life’s optimists and a joy to chat with.   

In this episode, he discusses the challenges of running an unprofitable growth company, how being told "NO" is only temporary, the importance of building resilience, and why listing in London has been such a positive move for him and the business.  

It was great having Mark’s experienced approach to guide Ami through the key pillars of Windward’s investment case and paint a picture of what Windward could become as it approaches profitability and reinvests in its rapidly growing platform.   

I must remind you that this is for information purposes only. None of what you hear in this episode is investment or any other type of advice, and the views expressed are purely those of the contributors and not the views of Progressive Equity or any other organisation mentioned in this podcast.

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Ami Daniel.   

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

Please subscribe so that you don't miss this and further episodes.

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Originally an English literature graduate, Tim started work as a bond salesman for a Japanese bank.

However, he switched to private client wealth management, where he was to develop his well-reasoned but highly differentiated approach to managing money.  

Tim has developed this approach based on extensive reading in economics, history, finance, and investing. 

In this episode, he shares the main influences, which range from the Swiss Italian Renaissance mathematician Daniel Bernoulli to the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises and the Roman Emperor Diocletian.

His strategy has three main themes focusing on ….  value equities, systematic trend following and real assets. 

He has no time for the traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. 

Due to the unsustainable level of sovereign debt and the sluggish outlook for economic growth, he describes bond investors as dancing around a live volcano. 

I have been reading Tim’s newsletters for a while and highly recommend subscribing.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research. 

Originally an English literature graduate, Tim started work as a bond salesman for a Japanese bank.

However, he switched to private client wealth management, where he was to develop his well-reasoned but highly differentiated approach to managing money.  

Tim has developed this approach based on extensive reading in economics, history, finance, and investing. 

In this episode, he shares the main influences, which range from the Swiss Italian Renaissance mathematician Daniel Bernoulli to the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises and the Roman Emperor Diocletian.

His strategy has three main themes focusing on ….  value equities, systematic trend following and real assets. 

He has no time for the traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. 

Due to the unsustainable level of sovereign debt and the sluggish outlook for economic growth, he describes bond investors as 'dancing on the edge of a live volcano'. 

I have been reading Tim’s newsletters for a while and highly recommend subscribing.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research. 

I first met Geoff Oldfield in the 1990s when he was working as the co-manager of the European Select Fund at Barings Asset Management. He and his partner Gerhard Shoeningh were making a name for themselves in the sector and, in 1998, left to set up Ennismore Fund Management with some very firm ideas about the type of investment firm they wanted to run.

The main pillars were performance over asset gathering (no fund marketing), investment decisions taken by PMs, not a committee, clawback of performance fees to reward individual contributions, and a firm owned internally by its portfolio managers. 

Ennismore’s first fund was launched in January 1999. It has been closed to new investors for most of its life, and a significant proportion of the fund is owned by its portfolio managers, including Geoff.  

I was fortunate enough to invest in the Ennismore European Smaller Companies fund on its launch. Over the subsequent nearly 25 years, it has delivered a 17-fold return with a focused absolute return strategy in European-listed smaller companies. This is an average annual return of 12%. Remarkably over the period, the fund only had three down years: 2008, 2009, and 2020, which together represented an aggregate negative 12% return. This is a track record fully demonstrating the advantages of an absolute return approach.  

Geoff is not a public figure and I have spoken to him about doing this podcast since he returned to frontline fund management. After a 10-year break, Geoff came back into portfolio management in an effort to help turn around the Ennismore Global Fund. This 2016 fund had scored “an own goal” (as Geoff puts it) while running short positions in the meme stock-obsessed NASDAQ market of 2020.  

Geoff is the epitome of the humble investor being respectful of Mr Market and also knowing when to take advantage of his emotionally charged moments of mis-valuation. He talks about mistakes he made in the GFC and how providing liquidity to investors is a good discipline despite investing in an illiquid asset class. He also describes how he defines quality companies and how they should be valued, but he also talks about how he always looks for a margin of safety. Critically he discusses what makes smaller companies such a rich seam of opportunity for value investors a strategy he has successfully pursued in the changing market circumstances for more than a quarter of a century.

I must remind you that nothing you hear today is investment advice. The views expressed are personal to the contributors and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or Ennismore Fund Management. I hope you find it enjoyable and educational. As always when I chat with Geoff, I learned a lot.  

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick investor, Geoff Oldfield. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I first met Geoff Oldfield in the 1990s when he was working as the co-manager of the European Select Fund at Barings Asset Management. He and his partner Gerhard Shoeningh were making a name for themselves in the sector and, in 1998, left to set up Ennismore Fund Management with some very firm ideas about the type of investment firm they wanted to run.

The main pillars were performance over asset gathering (no fund marketing), investment decisions taken by PMs, not a committee, clawback of performance fees to reward individual contributions, and a firm owned internally by its portfolio managers. 

Ennismore’s first fund was launched in January 1999. It has been closed to new investors for most of its life, and a significant proportion of the fund is owned by its portfolio managers, including Geoff.  

I was fortunate enough to invest in the Ennismore European Smaller Companies fund on its launch. Over the subsequent nearly 25 years, it has delivered a 17-fold return with a focused absolute return strategy in European-listed smaller companies. This is an average annual return of 12%. Remarkably over the period, the fund only had three down years: 2008, 2009, and 2020, which together represented an aggregate negative 12% return. This is a track record fully demonstrating the advantages of an absolute return approach.  

Geoff is not a public figure and I have spoken to him about doing this podcast since he returned to frontline fund management. After a 10-year break, Geoff came back into portfolio management in an effort to help turn around the Ennismore Global Fund. This 2016 fund had scored “an own goal” (as Geoff puts it) while running short positions in the meme stock-obsessed NASDAQ market of 2020.  

Geoff is the epitome of the humble investor being respectful of Mr Market and also knowing when to take advantage of his emotionally charged moments of mis-valuation. He talks about mistakes he made in the GFC and how providing liquidity to investors is a good discipline despite investing in an illiquid asset class. He also describes how he defines quality companies and how they should be valued, but he also talks about how he always looks for a margin of safety. Critically he discusses what makes smaller companies such a rich seam of opportunity for value investors a strategy he has successfully pursued in the changing market circumstances for more than a quarter of a century.

I must remind you that nothing you hear today is investment advice. The views expressed are personal to the contributors and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or Ennismore Fund Management. I hope you find it enjoyable and educational. As always when I chat with Geoff, I learned a lot.  

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick investor, Geoff Oldfield.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I subscribe to a lot of podcasts, but there aren’t many that I always listen to. However, Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds is always a must-listen to. It's both entertaining and informative. It is typically just 10 minutes long and contains some real nuggets covering macroeconomics, financial markets, politics, and the long-term drivers impacting the world all investors inhabit.  

We recorded this chat on July 1st, and quite a lot has happened since then. Obviously, we have had elections in the UK and France and the advancement of England and France to the semifinals of Euro 24.   

In this episode, Jim discusses why he thinks bonds are so interesting and important and what we, as investors, can learn from them. He also discusses Trussonomics, the implications of French political instability, the potential impact of an unwinding of Japan’s carry trade, what to know about credit spreads, and how they might inform equity markets. 

Jim has been a fund manager at M&G for 27 years, most recently as CIO for fixed income. Since we recorded this episode, Jim has announced his departure later this year to study art history. I very much hope he can also find the time to keep up his podcasting, maybe interspersing yield curve analysis with a view on the modern relevance of German expressionism from the inter-war period.   

I must remind you that none of what you hear is investment advice, it is all just the personal views of the people talking and does not represent the views of any organisation mentioned in this podcast. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Uncle Jim about his world of bonds. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Simon’s journey is a powerful example of how adverse circumstances, can be a fertile ground for learning and growth. His story underscores the crucial role of resilience in business success. The development of a business supplying tooling and components to the global automotive industry is a testament to Simon’s well-honed entrepreneurial skills and can-do attitude, forged in the face of adversity. 

Growing up in one of London’s more socially deprived areas, Simon thrived in maths, physics, and engineering but was thwarted by his dyslexia in pursuing conventional employment. Through successful side hustles developed during his university years, Simon bought into a plastics moulding and tool-making business, becoming MD of his own company at the age of 25. 

Simon's vision for CT Automotive was clear from the start. He saw the huge potential in manufacturing in China to Western standards. This foresight led him to spend 16 years living in China, transforming CT from its tool-making roots into a global component supply business that serves most of the world’s largest automotive OEMs. 

Simon candidly discusses the challenges he faced in his chosen career path and how he overcame them. He shares why he chose to IPO the business on AIM in 2021 and reflects on the following couple of years as the most challenging period he has ever experienced.

Looking forward, Simon talks about the need to stay ahead via the adoption of AI and robotics, a trend that is happening so quickly that the shape of the automotive industry he supplies will be unknowable over the next few years. However, as he says, CT went to China for its low costs but is staying because of its world-class leadership in modern manufacturing technology.    

This is a fascinating story of resilience, innovation and raw entrepreneurialism. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Simon Philips.  

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

I really enjoyed this one. I hope you do too.

Please subscribe on your podcast app or follow me on Substack.

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Mark introduced me to Miles in early 2023 where we spoke about the challenges of revitalising the defence electronics supplier amid component shortages.  https://share.transistor.fm/s/58cdae19

It was great catching up with Miles again, although the swim home was challenging. 

Adam epitomises the philosophy of doing things differently when it comes to investing in UK equities. He has pursued his unique approach since founding Cape Wrath in 2016 using what he describes as a behavioural value strategy. 

He looks to identify market capitulation events and narrative shifts to cycle capital into shares when they are driven by emotion more than rationality. He then looks to exit positions when narrative shifts lead to equity revaluations to his appraised fair value.

Adam runs his fund according to what he calls the Rules of Wrath, not the established conventional rules of thumb that seek quality companies and long-term holding periods that try to avoid volatility. 

No, for Adam it is a marketing strategy designed to discourage investors who can’t stomach the journey into the deep value that exists in the UK market. He wants a band of loyal investors who understand and back his strategy, a strategy he is fully committed to and invested in.    

While he has all the credentials of a conventional equity fund manager, Adam is anything but. Previously an army officer, Adam has degrees in PPE and law and the CFA qualification. 

He has also rowed the Atlantic, written a book, swam the channel, cycled from Land’s End to John O’Groats, and lived and worked in India for several years. He is now based in North Wales. 

According to Morningstar, only one of 72 smaller company funds outperformed the UK small-cap index last year. That fund was Cape Wrath. A one-year wonder? Well, not exactly. 

As of the end of May this year, Cape Wrath has significantly outperformed its benchmarks over one month, six months, one year, and five years by sticking to and evolving its rigorous investment strategy and process.  

This is a fascinating conversation in which Adam delves into some examples of how his strategy has played out and how he hopes to develop his process further. 

He then looks forward to closing the fund to new investors, switching off his LinkedIn account, and retiring to his library to do what he enjoys best: picking undervalued shares. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick investor, Adam Rackley.

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Adam epitomises the philosophy of doing things differently when it comes to investing in UK equities. He has pursued his unique approach since founding Cape Wrath in 2016 using what he describes as a behavioural value strategy. 

He looks to identify market capitulation events and narrative shifts to cycle capital into shares when they are driven by emotion more than rationality. He then looks to exit positions when narrative shifts lead to equity revaluations to his appraised fair value.

Adam runs his fund according to what he calls the Rules of Wrath, not the established conventional rules of thumb that seek quality companies and long-term holding periods that try to avoid volatility. 

No, for Adam it is a marketing strategy designed to discourage investors who can’t stomach the journey into the deep value that exists in the UK market. He wants a band of loyal investors who understand and back his strategy, a strategy he is fully committed to and invested in.    

While he has all the credentials of a conventional equity fund manager, Adam is anything but. Previously an army officer, Adam has degrees in PPE and law and the CFA qualification. 

He has also rowed the Atlantic, written a book, swam the channel, cycled from Land’s End to John O’Groats, and lived and worked in India for several years. He is now based in North Wales. 

According to Morningstar, only one of 72 smaller company funds outperformed the UK small-cap index last year. That fund was Cape Wrath. A one-year wonder? Well, not exactly. 

As of the end of May this year, Cape Wrath has significantly outperformed its benchmarks over one month, six months, one year, and five years by sticking to and evolving its rigorous investment strategy and process.  

This is a fascinating conversation in which Adam delves into some examples of how his strategy has played out and how he hopes to develop his process further. 

He then looks forward to closing the fund to new investors, switching off his LinkedIn account, and retiring to his library to do what he enjoys best: picking undervalued shares. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick investor, Adam Rackley. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Prior to founding Cohort, Nick worked in the Ministry of Defence before joining United Scientific Holdings, later renamed Alvis. A few years later Nick became CEO. 

Alvis was eventually acquired by BAe, and Nick, along with several former Alvis colleagues, set up Cohort in 2006. With a market value of £26m, Cohort aims to provide technical services to the defence industry in the UK and abroad. 

Today, 18 years later, Cohort is the parent company of six operating businesses, providing a wide range of services and products for British and international customers in defence, security, and related markets. Its market capitalisation is £335m. 

In a fascinating discussion, Nick talks about the changing nature of the defence industry over his long career, why he decided to establish Cohort, how he has gone about making acquisitions and the decentralised operating model for the Group, how the listed defence industry has changed, and how our rapidly changing geopolitics is likely to change the operating environment for Cohort in the coming years. 

With defence spending rising up the priority list for all Western countries, the outlook for Cohort and the rest of the defence industry hasn’t looked this good for decades. As he says the expansion of the Chinese navy over the last 20 years is a source of considerable concern to other countries in the region, such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, all of which are Cohort customers. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has radically changed perceptions about the need to fund defence budgets further in Europe.    

I began by asking Nick about his background and how and why he came to establish Cohort in 2006.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research. 

Nick provides a wealth of anecdotes and knowledge of the defence industry, the geopolitics that drives it, and how it will likely change in the years ahead.

Coming soon on all good podcast apps.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research   

Last year, Onward's fund manager, Laurence Hulse, proposed an investment in Transense Technologies. My initial reaction could best be described as having a Victor Meldrew moment. Those with stock market memories may recall that Transense has a history of failing to meet its ambitious plans and targets and repeatedly returned to investors to back its innovative sensor technology.

In 2007, Transense had a market cap of £60m and forecast revenue of £300,000. Its exciting disruptive technology, Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW), was destined to achieve widespread adoption in the automotive industry. However, this didn't happen, and instead, Transense developed a well-earned reputation for serial stock market underachievement.   

As Sir John Templeton said, the four most dangerous words in investing are, This Time It's Different. With these words in mind, on today's episode, I am joined by Laurence to hear how Executive Chairman Nigel Rogers and Managing Director Ryan Maughan have repositioned this failed AIM-listed, blue-sky growth stock of the early 2000s. It is a fascinating case study of how UK-listed microcap companies can become forgotten and ignored as recovery strategies are implemented and latent value is created. As Nigel mentions, the AIM market is far from perfect.

Today, Transense has a market cap of just £15m and is only now beginning to exploit SAW's true potential in areas like motorsport, EVs, aerospace and robotics. Following an innovative licensing deal with tyre giant Bridgestone that has effectively underwritten the business's foreseeable future, Transense today is led by a combination of Nigel's experienced financial nouse and Ryan's proven engineering credentials and entrepreneurial instincts.

In this episode, we learn how Transense Technologies has been right-sized and can face the future on a firm financial footing, giving it time to exploit opportunities in SAW and its tyre-measuring device business, Translogik.   

Please enjoy our conversation with Nigel and Ryan of Transense Technologies and why this time, it's different.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.     

Last year, Onward's fund manager, Laurence Hulse, proposed an investment in Transense Technologies. My initial reaction could best be described as having a Victor Meldrew moment. Those with stock market memories may recall that Transense has a history of failing to meet its ambitious plans and targets and repeatedly returned to investors to back its innovative sensor technology. 

In 2007, Transense had a market cap of £60m and forecast revenue of £300,000. Its exciting disruptive technology, Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW), was destined to achieve widespread adoption in the automotive industry. However, this didn't happen, and instead, Transense developed a well-earned reputation for serial stock market underachievement.   

As Sir John Templeton said, the four most dangerous words in investing are, This Time It's Different. With these words in mind, on today's episode, I am joined by Laurence to hear how Executive Chairman Nigel Rogers and Managing Director Ryan Maughan have repositioned this failed AIM-listed, blue-sky growth stock of the early 2000s. It is a fascinating case study of how UK-listed microcap companies can become forgotten and ignored as recovery strategies are implemented and latent value is created. As Nigel mentions, the AIM market is far from perfect. 

Today, Transense has a market cap of just £15m and is only now beginning to exploit SAW's true potential in areas like motorsport, EVs, aerospace and robotics. Following an innovative licensing deal with tyre giant Bridgestone that has effectively underwritten the business's foreseeable future, Transense today is led by a combination of Nigel's experienced financial nouse and Ryan's proven engineering credentials and entrepreneurial instincts.
 
In this episode, we learn how Transense Technologies has been right-sized and can face the future on a firm financial footing, giving it time to exploit opportunities in SAW and its tyre-measuring device business, Translogik.   

Please enjoy our conversation with Nigel and Ryan of Transense Technologies and why this time, it's different.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.     

For this week's Market Call Gareth and Jeremy are joined again by Scott Evans of the London Business School and the Deutsche Numis Equity Indices. Scott talks about market performance in Q1 2024. Where have markets come from, how have they performed in Q1, and where are they going? Bond yields have risen, inflation is sticky, and rates are higher for longer. Equities have had a good quarter, albeit the Magnificent Seven have not been quite so magnificent. The UK, by comparison, has been lacklustre. Gold has been the Q1 showstopper, and the main buyer seems to have been China's central bank, the POBC. Are they about to devalue the Red Cabbage or launch a military campaign?

In Q1, small caps underperformed large caps in Q1 in UK and US. The UK IPO market remains moribund. There have been more deaths than births in the UK market YTD. Is the UK stock market just a dumpster fire, or can it recover? Gareth is hopeful for a recovery.

Jeremy highlights the Middle East conflict, its limited impact on financial markets, and what to look for going forward. The big news is UK inflation, but he remains sceptical that the UK will cut rates ahead of the Fed.

Gareth discusses the week's company news, highlighting the Severfield results with a strong order book and a share buyback.

In next week's news, Jeremy highlights US PCE inflation data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

Mark’s professional background was in the paper and packaging industry. He has been a shareholder in MPAC since 2013 when it was known as Molins. 

Adam has enjoyed a varied engineering career, initially working in space technology, then with Rolls Royce and for JCB before joining MPAC initially as COO in 2021. He has a track record of solving engineering problems in global industries and leading teams that provide after-sales care for large multinational customers.

Adam gives us a detailed run-through of the rich legacy of the business he now runs and its evolution into an automation systems provider to the global packaging industry. He talks about the scale of MPAC's market, the challenges, and the opportunities to grow organically with existing and new customers, and via infill acquisition. 

We learn from Adam why he prefers to reinvest in the business than to pay dividends today, how MPAC has significant potential in the giga factory market for the scale production of modern batteries, and that scaling the business and maintaining its culture of engineering excellence and customer service is vital in his vision to make MPAC into a business capable of being 10x its current sales level.  

Please enjoy our conversation with Adam Holland.
 
 Brought to you by Progressive. 

Patrick has extensive and varied experience analysing and investing in financial markets, culminating in 15 years of co-managing a large multi-asset fund. 

Throughout his career, Patrick has questioned the relevance of mainstream economics in understanding the reality of financial markets and investment management, and over recent years he has focused all his time developing what he calls The Market Mind Hypothesis or the MMH. 

Last year, Patrick published a book on his work titled The Market Mind Hypothesis: Understanding Markets and Minds through Cognitive Economics. It is a fascinating read.

In today’s conversation, Patrick discusses how mechanistic economics leads to damaging policy errors, how mechanistic investment strategies damage price discovery, and the amazing overlapping worlds of markets and minds. In short, Patrick believes markets are conscious and we would be better off if we established this as our way of framing how we think about economics and finance.       

As Patrick says, if mainstream economics is the answer to our problems, then we are asking the wrong questions. And that the growing dominance of mechanistic and passive investment flows risk breaking markets' conscious means of price and value discovery.

Patrick’s analysis contains much practical guidance on thinking about real and financial markets, although he concedes that more research is required.  

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick thinker, Patrick Schotanus.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Angus Thirwell is the co-founder and CEO of Hotel Chocolat and was on Episode 4 in December 2021. Angus has just completed the sale of Hotel Chocolat to Mars for a value of £534m and has decided to roll most of his stake in the company into the Mars family structure as he sees an increased opportunity for the brand to grow under its new ownership. 

Gary Channon is the founder and CIO of Phoenix Asset Management with a disciplined value style of investing detailed in previous episodes with James Wilson. Gary heads a team that manages UK-listed investment vehicles, Aurora Investment Trust and Castelnau.  

We are treated to a master class in how Angus’s careful stewardship of his premium branded chocolate and the culture required to develop its full potential led him to his partnership with one of the world’s biggest and most successful family businesses.  

And how Gary’s disciplined approach to research and valuation delivered a stunning return by acquiring a 15% stake in Hotel Chocolat after its post-pandemic setback. 

We cover a lot of ground and discuss the health of the UK stock market, how to think about investing in consumer-facing businesses and how failing and learning from mistakes is an important part of developing a business whether in premium chocolate or asset management. 

Gary also talks about taking the funeral business Dignity private and this latest addition to the portfolio, Churchill China.      

Please enjoy our conversation with the mavericks, Angus Thirwell and Gary Channon.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.

Doomberg is a pen name and alias assuming the form of a green chicken online. Originally on Twitter and now on Substack, Doomberg has become the most popular financial newsletter on the platform.

Doomberg explains why he has chosen to operate anonymously, helping him explore and explain complex and technical aspects of the energy debate with unusual clarity often overlooked or ignored by mainstream media and policymakers.

In this fascinating discussion, Doomberg explains why energy is fundamental to human life, why our dizzying technical expertise in extracting hydrocarbons is overlooked and even denigrated by people whose very lives depend on it, what the connection is between energy and human flourishing, how our thinking has been held hostage by Malthusian beliefs of pessimism leading to energy crises, economic decline and political unrest. We also talk about the recent COP 28 gathering and the renewed pursuit of nuclear energy.

I have learnt much from Doomberg about energy, economics and how our world works. In so doing, he demonstrates the changing nature of our media and how the internet can be used as a force for an informed debate on important topics. I find his approach refreshing and inspiring.

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Doomberg.   

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.

Companies mentioned this week include UK housebuilders, M&S, Marks Electrical, Sosander and Xaar. 

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Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Guest co-host James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management, manager of the Huginn Fund. 

A few weeks ago, James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management joined me for a conversation with Tony Brewer, the founder and CEO of Likewise Group.

James had talked about Tony and his investment in AIM-listed Likewise on a previous episode, and I had been keen to get Tony on ever since.  

Tony has spent his entire adult life in the floor coverings business developing Headlam from a small textile distributor to the UK’s leading flooring supplier before leaving in 2016.

Two years later, at a time when many of us might consider slowing down, Tony set up Likewise and set about building national distribution, as James points out, this is a business where scale matters.

James is an investor who leaves few stones unturned when he seeks companies to join his concentrated and eclectic portfolio. With his questioning and observations, James brings to life the investment case for what one might believe to be an overly competitive and low-value-added business.    

This episode offers a fascinating insight into a man with a passion for carpet distribution and the views of a professional investor backing him to succeed.     

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Tony Brewer.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.

Guest co-host James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management, manager of the Huginn Fund. 

Have you ever wondered why small independent carpet shops can survive competing against the major multiple retailers?

In a previous episode, James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management talked about Tony Brewer previously of Headlam and now the founder and CEO of AIM-listed Likewise. 

Coming soon I am rejoined by James for a fascinating chat with Tony, about his life in carpets.  

This episode gives a behind-the-scenes look at the complexities of the world of floor covering distribution, one man’s life’s passion for it and how a professional investor rates his chances of delivering long-term value from a business he founded in 2018. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.

Nils started as a pizza maker at the age of 15 and opened his first franchised store in Perth, Western Australia, just before his 22nd birthday. 

It is fair to say Nils has pizza in his blood and gives us a masterclass in what makes a delivered pizza shop work and how to develop a winning culture. 

From Australia to Croatia, via Canada Nils now operates AIM listed DP Poland from Warsaw. He is quite the epitome of the Aussie traveller. 

In this episode, we learn how operating a pizza shop is like running a sports team, and how wowing customers with pizza delivered in 25 minutes or less involves better in-store metrics and not high-speed moped drivers. As Nils said, “The race is in the store, not on the road.” 

As Stephen Helmsley of Franchise Brands, formerly CEO of Domino’s Pizza in the UK said in Episode 11, opening Domino’s successfully in new markets requires proven operators. Nils fits the bill perfectly. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Nils Gornall. 

On October 17th, I got Laurie and Alyx back together with Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at City stockbroker Panmure Gordon, to ask the question, Why Invest in the UK?      

It was a great conversation on a live topic of interest for investors and one I hope to return to in future episodes. 

Simon frames the discussion with his expertise in interpreting macroeconomic data.

Alyx adds his perspective of an investor who spends much of his time talking to international investors about investing in the UK. 

Laurie talks of what he sees as a generational opportunity to buy abnormally cheap assets at the bottom end of the UK’s “out of favour” stock market.   

As always, this is for information purposes only. This is not investment advice. 

On October 17th, I got Laurie and Alyx back together with Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at City stockbroker Panmure Gordon, to ask the question, Why Invest in the UK?      

It was a great conversation on a live topic of interest for investors and one I hope to return to in future episodes. 

Simon frames the discussion with his expertise in interpreting macroeconomic data.

Alyx adds his perspective of an investor who spends much of his time talking to international investors about investing in the UK. 

Laurie talks of what he sees as a generational opportunity to buy abnormally cheap assets at the bottom end of the UK’s “out of favour” stock market.   

As always, this is for information purposes only. This is not investment advice. 

For today’s episode, I am joined by the private investor and host of the Desert Island Investor podcast, Mark Atkinson, for a conversation with the Chairman and CEO of Town Centre Securities, Edward Ziff. 

Edward is the second-generation custodian of the family business with a rich history largely centred on the City of Leeds. 

Edward talks candidly about the challenges of managing a small listed real estate company in which his family holds a controlling stake. He discusses the difficulties of attracting outside shareholders and how modern norms of PLC life often run counter to the cherished traditions of personal relationships often prevalent in family-owned companies.

Edward is not a first-generation entrepreneur managing growth and holding a tiger by the tail. First and foremost, he is trying to preserve capital and generate income for an increasingly dispersed group of family and friends while meeting the requirements of a modern listed company. 

Despite navigating the financing pitfalls of the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, Town Centre Securities is left today as something of a stock market relic, trading at less than half its assessed net asset value, reflecting its small size and lack of institutional appeal.  

As Edward says, running a small listed family business is exciting and depressing in equal measure.

This is a catch-up with Alasdair Haynes, founder and CEO of Aquis Exchange. He last appeared in Episode 3 in November 2021, and much has changed in the meantime. Aquis has continued to grow and is now ten years old. Alasdair has been at the forefront of innovation in stock market technology for many years and remains enthused by the prospects for change and innovation despite a recent health scare. Alasdair openly discusses the successes and mistakes he has made along the way but also clearly reiterates his vision of the future, including the need to improve the UK as a primary listing and trading venue. Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Alasdair Haynes. 

For today’s episode, I am rejoined by Sukh Chamdal, the founder and CEO of AIM-listed Cake Box. 

For background on Sukh and Cake Box, you should listen to episode 2 from November 2021, where Sukh talked about the formation of Cake Box as a retailer of egg-free celebration cakes and growth via a franchising model.  

I was keen to catch up with Sukh as, over the last 18 months, the UK consumer has been under pressure from the rising interest rates, inflation and a general cost of living crisis.  

Cak Box has also had specific issues not uncommon among growing businesses, and Sukh has a new senior management team. 

I visited Sukh last Summer and saw the Enfield distribution centre. I witnessed Sukh's passion for all aspects of the business, particularly the development of new products and production and distribution efficiency. 

Cake Box now has over 200 stores and continues to grow. Sukh believes that consumers have re-adjusted to the higher cost of living and remain prepared to spend on treats for birthdays and special occasions. 

Please enjoy my catch-up with the maverick, Sukh Chamdal.

For today’s episode, David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Investment Management joins me for a conversation with James Wilson, fund manager of The Huginn Fund. The Huginn Fund applies the value investing principles of the wider Phoenix Asset Management team to international markets. However, James has his own very distinctive approach to investing. 

David and I have attended the Phoenix Annual Investor Meetings together for the last couple of years and have been impressed by James’ presentations of his top picks, last year of French champagne house Laurent Perrier and this year's US onshore gas producer CNX. 

James talks about his investment philosophy, why he seeks to invest in leaders rather than managers and the difference leaders can have on their organisations. He gives us insights into what he regards as the hidden value in three companies covering the French luxury goods industry, the US natural gas market, and the UK floor coverings market. 

James dives into his holdings in Laurent Perrier, CNX and the UK’s Likewise Group. 

James leaves few stones unturned in his approach to getting insight and understanding of the companies he invests in. He gives us a masterclass in value investing, the importance of doing the work, and the insights it can yield.  

I learnt a lot from this conversation. I hope you do too.