They walk through the competing narratives: a founder-led board defending its strategy versus an activist arguing the company is undervalued due to poor governance and capital allocation. Along the way, they discuss downside protection, third-party bids, and special situations.

Rather than a stock pitch, this is a case study in pattern recognition: how governance disputes, excess cash, and strategic activist pressure can create asymmetric outcomes. 

Building on our original Theory of the Case from November 2024 and our January 2025 update, we unpack recent developments, including:

• Management changes (CEO and CFO),
• IonQ's competitive position in the broader quantum market.
• Challenging valuation metrics ($15 -16 billion on $100 million of revenue)
• IonQ's $2 billion in Equity financing at $93/share  (h/t to Andrew Walker's piece that has a great breakdown of this, link below)

🔗 Links

• Theory of the Case — IonQ (Nov 2024): https://fomo.transistor.fm/episodes/theory-of-the-case-ionq
• IonQ Update (Jan 2025): https://fomo.transistor.fm/episodes/ionq-january-2025
• Andrew Walker on IonQ financing: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/the-evolution-of-meme-stock-financing
• Chris Monroe on quantum computing and IonQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eo_VV0Z4aE&t=6249s

Then we jump to biotech to cover the Pfizer and Novo bidding war for Metsera (Pfizer ultimately won with its $8 billion deal).  The bidding for Metesera  drew at least six bidders and may set-off a chain reaction in the GLP-1 space. We speculate on what this deal might mean for Viking (VKTX) and others in the GLP-1 / obesity space.

The conversation kicks off with Apple’s AI dilemma—is Siri too far behind, and could Apple’s cash hoard finally push them into a big acquisition? Would buying Perplexity or Anthropic give them the AI-native layer their ecosystem needs? And what about the $20B Google search deal that DOJ scrutiny could upend?

From there, they turn to Alphabet/Google, exploring what a DOJ-mandated divestiture could look like. Could Waymo be spun out to unlock value? What happens if Chrome were ever separated from Google Search? And whether DOJ case may require a meaningful remedy from Google (and possibly Apple).

It’s an episode full of hot takes, half-baked speculation, and a few insights that might just age into real deals.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.

Brian and Mik catch up on a few investment ideas they have been following

What we cover

• ANSYS × Synopsys: the deal closed; why a stock-and-cash structure gave us yield and long-term exposure, and how we’re thinking about integration risk and the opportunity ahead. (TLdR: We are still long Synosys)

  
  

• Semis & the “foundry question”: Intel sentiment whiplash, a new CEO with a turnaround pedigree, and the reality of competing with TSMC scale. We speculate on Intel's potential outcome(s) and what second-order effects may be for the ecosystem, including TSMC.

  
  

• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): why a fast-follower with both subcutaneous and oral programs still looks interesting in a market dominated by Novo/Lilly; the real risks (short interest, dilution, timelines) and why patience, position sizing and buying well matters.

  
  

• Process over predictions: how we use updates like these to revisit assumptions without over-trading the noise.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.

What You’ll Learn:

• TG Therapeutics’ evolution to a successful commercial-stage biotech. 
• Practical investment strategies for investing in biotech companies like TGTX.
• Insights into the multiple sclerosis treatment landscape, and the growing market for anti-CD20 therapies, including Roche's Ocrevus, Novartis’s Kesimpta, and TG’s Briumvi.
• How Briumvi has been able to gain market traction.
• Upcoming catalysts for TG Therapeutics, including the potential for a label update to skip the initial dose, the potential to speed up infusions from 1 hour to 30-minutes, and the development of a subcutaneous formulation of Briumvi.
• A discussion about Bruton’s Tyrosine Kinase inhibitors (BTKi), a new class of disease modifying therapies in clinical trials for the treatment of MS.
• How TG Therapeutics has positioned itself as a compelling acquisition target.
• Brian revisits his February 8, 2024 article on TGTX, written when TG was at $14.32.  Recently shares have traded between $35 and $40.  
• Brian updates his forecast for when TG will achieve a $1 billion net product sales run-rate, and notes that the company today is considerably de-risked with market traction and net positive cash flows.

Links

• Brian’s February 8, 2024 article on TGTX
• The Evolution of Anti‑CD20 Treatment for Multiple Sclerosis: Optimization of Antibody Characteristics and Function
• Progress toward Mitigating Disability Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

• Cliff Sosin,  Yet Another Value Podcast
• Recurve,  Yet Another Value Podcast
• Recurve Rebuttal
• Cliff Sosin, Invest Like The Best
• Hindenburg Short Theses
  
  

Key Topics Covered:

• 🧠 What ANSYS and Synopsys actually do and why they matter
• 💻 CAE + EDA: how the merger creates an end-to-end design environment
• 🤖 Physics AI: the untapped potential of generative models trained on physical simulation data
• 📈 Deep dive into the merger economics, risks, and timeline
• 💰 How to think about merger arbitrage as a strategy—when it works and when it burns

Links:
🎧 ANSYS CTO Dr. Prith Banerjee talks about the future of AI in Physics and Simulation on the Neil Ashton Podcast

We explore the science behind Checkpoint UNLOXCYT™.  How Checkpoint navigated FDA delays, dilution, and an unforgiving cash runway — all leading to an eventual $355 million acquisition.

Whether you're into biotech investing, thesis-driven trades, or just love a good underdog story, this one is packed with lessons on risk, timing, and what it takes to bring a new cancer therapy to market.

💡 Key Topics Covered:

• Why Checkpoint Therapeutics caught Brian’s eye in 2021
• The cancer drug (cosibelimab) that made it all happen
• Lessons in biotech cash burn, dilution, and timing
• How to size positions in high-risk trades
• What the 70¢ CVR could still mean for shareholders
• The growing role of fast followers in immunotherapy
• Emotional anchoring, stubbornness, and scorekeeping as an investor

We review Jensen Huang's and Mark Zuckerburg's claims about the timeline for useful quantum computing (being 15+ years out). We also include IonQ management responses, including the CFO's (Thomas Kramer) view. 

We reflect on the current state of play of AI and the potential role for Quantum computing. 

Disclaimer: The content in this podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research.

In this Theory Of The Trade (TOTT) episode, we recount why Mik initially started investing in Intel when Pat Gelsinger rejoined the company (~ February 2021) and why he is now cutting his exposure to the stock, given the uncertainty overhang after Pat’s departure. 

We explore Intel’s storied past—from the 386/486 “glory days” to missed opportunities in mobile—and dissect whether Intel can reclaim its position as a leading-edge semiconductor manufacturer or if this is the beginning of the end of this legendary American Silicon Valley company.

In TOTC episodes, we have an open-ended discussion on an investment that we are beginning to research. We dive into the fundamentals, the opportunity, and ultimately whether we believe there is a good investment thesis.  

IonQ is one of the few pure play quantum compute companies.  IonQ is working on developing and scaling general purpose quantum compute. In this episode we discuss what is quantum compute, potential use cases for quantum compute.   

We explore some parallels between quantum compute and GPU compute and Nvidia ~2009-2011.     We discuss some of IonQ’s promising partnerships, the Quibtek acquisition and some promising new quantum networking products that IonQ is looking to launch.

We recorded this episode on 15th November 2024 when IonQ was breaking through new all-time-highs and we discuss both the opportunities and risks involved in investing in IonQ at the current valuation.   

 (This Jensen Huang talk we reference, to draw out the GPU parallel in the episode is 13 years old and speaks to a vision of GPU Compute at ~40 minutes in)

We touch on topics like the wisdom of crowds, the efficient market hypothesis, and how these new betting markets could hedge traditional financial markets. We discuss whether betting on elections is a legitimate hedging tool or just a gamified gamble. 

We discuss what may have driven poll bias. How analyst predictions for a very tight race may have impacted betting markets.  We also discuss how this led to a disconnect that resulted in betting market odds, which had 75/25 odds in favor of Kamala winning the popular vote.

In TOTC episodes, we have an open-ended discussion on an investment that we are beginning to research. We dive into the fundamentals, the opportunity, and ultimately whether we believe there is a good investment thesis.  

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) has become a fast follower in the rapidly growing GLP-1/obesity drug market. We discuss the current state of play of VK-2735 research and Phase 2/3 studies.  We discuss the potential addressable market for GLP-1 drugs in the obesity and diabetes markets.  We review why the delivery mechanism may be an important driver in the thesis to invest in VKTX (or its competitors).  We discuss the company's capitalization and how the CEO's stewardship (Brian Lian) may be well-positioned to take Viking to the next stage.

We discuss index funds and how Vanguard / Jack Bogle started a trend toward low-cost index funds. We discuss active management as compared with passive index fund investing. We discuss the incentives in fund management that drive asset managers to end up with diversified asset allocations that are closely correlated with indices. We challenge the conventional wisdom of "set it and forget it" indexing and diversified portfolios and highlight the benefits of having a concentrated portfolio (a la Buffet / Munger) when you have high-conviction ideas.

References:

Full Collection of Nomad Capital Letters (Nick Sleep Letters)
Founders Podcast - Nick Sleep Letters
Acquired Podcast - Charlie Munger

Takeaways
Develop a principled approach to investing and know yourself as an investor.
Understand the difference between a great business and a great investment.
Recognize the potential opportunities and risks in emerging technologies like AI and compute.
Be comfortable with the ups and downs of the market and avoid chasing what's hot.
Consider your edge as an investor and focus on areas where you have knowledge and interest.

Sound Bites
"Should I cut some of my exposure to the market? Call it maybe a bit of FOMO."