Fixed Interests

AI Capex, Monetization, and What It Means for Credit

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:13:07 +0000

AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent developments around AI’s credit implications. The episode looks at whether current data center and compute capex is supported by future revenue potential, how value and cash flows may evolve across the AI value chain, and where overinvestment and disruption risks may emerge

AI Revenue Potential Could Support Current Investment Scale

US Public Power Planning Key to Absorbing Data Center Load Growth

Oil, Risk & Ratings: The Middle East Crisis Briefing

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 21:23:00 +0000

Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom.

Related Resources:

Tech Shifts and Obsolescence Risks in Structured Finance

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:38:22 +0000

From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and modern logistics sites. Taken together, these trends are influencing risk across auto ABS, CMBS, and RMBS and accelerating how these sectors respond to the faster pace of technological change.

Related Resources:

Accelerating Technology May Increase Obsolescence Risk Within ABS, MBS

Stable Arrears Protect European Auto ABS Against Near-Term Risk

U.S. CLO Note Ratings Resilient to Severe Software Sector Stress

Evaluating the Credit Impacts of Youth‑Led Protests in Asia

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 13 Feb 2026 15:57:16 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions.

Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC Sovereigns

Asia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks Diverge

Durable Coalition Key to Thailand's Fiscal Outlook After Elections

2026 Global Credit Outlook: Resilience, Risks, and What to Watch

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 03:32:40 +0000

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.

Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026

Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026

Geopolitical Tensions Raise Emerging Market Credit Risks in 2026

Benign U.S. Credit Backdrop Faces AI, Consumer and Trade Risks

Geopolitical Tensions Cloud Developed Europe’s Growth, Investment

Venezuela After Maduro: US Policy, Oil, and Regional Risks

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 21:19:26 +0000

Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.

Global Economic Outlook - AI-Related Capital Spending Cushions Slowdown

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 13:26:10 +0000

Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.

Are Bubble Risks Emerging in Leveraged Finance?

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:13:39 +0000

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Argentina Mid-Terms - Credit Outlook and Reform Risks

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 13 Nov 2025 16:39:55 +0000

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

Fiscal Challenges for Western European Sovereigns

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 30 Oct 2025 10:52:34 +0000

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Challenges Ahead for US Data Center Boom

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 19:32:44 +0000

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

GCC Diversification: Progress and Challenges

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 29 Sep 2025 15:15:01 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Emerging Markets in 2025 - Resilience Amid Global Headwinds

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:46:26 +0000

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Global Credit Risk Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 13:40:41 +0000

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.

Fiscal Risks in Japan

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 18 Jul 2025 09:31:11 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.

Global Economic Outlook – Better But Not Good

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 07 Jul 2025 15:12:04 +0000

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.

Global Corporates at Mid-Year - Sector Outlooks Deteriorates on Tariffs Pressure

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 26 Jun 2025 17:30:40 +0000

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.

CEE Electoral Cycle: Sovereign Rating Implications

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:17:46 +0000

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, discuss the credit implications and common themes of the 2025/2026 electoral cycle in Central and Eastern Europe.

Tariff Uncertainty Continues To Shape Credit Risk Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 23 May 2025 11:56:15 +0000

Fitch's 2Q25 Risk Headquarters report highlights a worsened risk outlook amid US tariff volatility. David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss key points from the report, centered around how Trump-era policies continue to elevate investor concerns.

Listen and Subscribe to Fitch Ratings Fixed Interests Podcast

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 19 May 2025 18:06:08 +0000

From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch’s Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

Mexico's Sovereign Rating Amid Global Trade Tensions

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 14 May 2025 17:25:35 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s recent rating affirmation, and how the sovereign is navigating global trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.

European Sovereigns: Navigating US Policy Shifts

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 01 May 2025 12:36:22 +0000

Explore the impact of US tariffs on European sovereigns with Jan Friederich, Head of EMEA Sovereigns, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, as they discuss strategic responses and fiscal implications for Europe.

China's Fiscal Future: Insights on the Recent Rating Downgrade

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 07:59:52 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China, discuss China’s recent downgrade, covering key drivers including the sovereign's weakening public finances and rapidly rising public debt ratios.

US Housing Economy Update - Downside Risks Increasing

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 15:44:34 +0000

Olu Sonola, Chief US Economist, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary and Research, delve into Fitch's latest US Cross-Sector Housing Monitor, discussing the US housing outlook and risks from tariffs, labor costs and lower sentiment.

Risk Headquarters 1Q25 - Key Risks to Global Credit

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 18 Mar 2025 22:19:58 +0000

David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 1Q25 Risk Headquarters report, covering how the credit risk environment has evolved since the start of the year in response to inflation, new Trump administration policies, and more.

India's Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 10 Mar 2025 15:01:00 +0000

Join Thomas Rookmaaker and Jeremy Zook from the APAC Sovereigns team as they explore India's 2025 budget, its path for debt reduction, economic outlook, and implications for the sovereign rating amid global uncertainties.

Private Credit - 2024 Trends, 2025 Expectations

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 10 Feb 2025 19:28:01 +0000

Join Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, as they review 2024's private credit trends, including the growth of asset-based finance, and discuss outlooks on the sector for 2025.

Trump Agenda and Outlook for US Fiscal Policy and Debt Trajectory

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 27 Jan 2025 21:03:51 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, look into the impact new Trump administration policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, may have on US public finances and its sovereign rating.

Global Credit Outlook 2025

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:20:20 +0000

David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 2025 Global Credit Outlook report, including positive drivers for the market such as falling interest rates, and negative drivers including escalating geopolitical risks.

Global Economic Outlook – Global Growth Stable as Forecasts for Major Economies Shift

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 11:53:11 +0000

Tariff uncertainty in the US, deflation pressures in China, and political instability in France and Germany are driving forecast changes for 2025. Join Brian Coulton and Ed Parker as they cover these and other developments detailed in Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report.

US Election Impact - Tariffs, Credit Risks, and Market Reactions

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 02 Dec 2024 17:47:38 +0000

Richard Francis, David Prowse, and Justin Patrie discuss the implications of the recent US election, including potential impacts on the US budget, sovereign credit profile, and the macroeconomic effects of new tariffs on global markets.

Public Finances and CEE Sovereign Ratings

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe (EE) Sovereigns, and Malgorzata Krzywicka, Associate Director EE Sovereigns, discuss Central and Eastern Europe’s current state of public finances and the region’s fiscal consolidation prospects and challenges.

US Banks - 2024 Trends, 2025 Expectations

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 22:00:00 +0000

Christopher Wolfe, Managing Director for North America Banks, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look back at US banks’ performance and rating trends in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025, including potential post-election policy changes.

Common Framework Restructurings - Progress and Challenges

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 15:41:42 +0000

Explore the latest developments in Common Framework debt restructurings for Ethiopia, Zambia, and Ghana and the impacts of new IMF policies with Paul Gamble, Head of MEA Sovereign ratings, and Thomas Garreau, Associate Director, MEA Sovereigns.

Outlook on Emerging Market Economies

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 14:34:05 +0000

Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, explore challenges and opportunities for emerging market economies, including recent rate cuts, weaker demand in China, and post-election policy changes in the US.

Economic Policy Expectations for India

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 02 Oct 2024 06:10:42 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Jeremy Zook, Lead Analyst for India, discuss India’s sovereign rating, and what to expect from the country’s economic policy following the election of Narendra Modi to his third term as prime minister.

US Election and Credit Implications

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 10 Sep 2024 18:56:45 +0000

Richard Francis, Richard Hunter and Justin Patrie look into the potential effects the upcoming US election could have on credit, touching on the US’ sovereign rating, the different fiscal policy plans offered by the candidates, and more.

Fiscal Policies in the European Union

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 03 Sep 2024 12:44:32 +0000

Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich and Head of Western European Sovereigns Federico Barriga Salazar discuss fiscal policies in the EU, including the impact of the new fiscal rules and implications for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.

Global Credit Risk through 1H24

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 19 Aug 2024 16:46:04 +0000

David Prowse, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look into our 3Q24 Risk Headquarters report, covering the ongoing impact of high interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, real estate market challenges and more.

Global Economic Outlook – Monetary Policy Enters an Easing Phase

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 16 Jul 2024 12:18:38 +0000

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, parse Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook report, covering focus points including the gradually slowing US economy, global monetary policy developments and more.

Mexico’s New Administration - Key Challenges and Opportunities

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 27 Jun 2024 10:00:00 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Lead Mexico Analyst, look at Mexico’s recent elections, including challenges and opportunities for the new administration, and rating drivers moving forward.

Estimating the Impact of Potential US Tariff Hikes

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 14:41:18 +0000

With elections in the U.S. approaching, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Alex Muscatelli, Director, Economics, look into the potential impact a renewed trade war sparked by US-led tariff hikes could have on the global economy

Contagion Risks from Rising Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 10 Jun 2024 19:10:51 +0000

Euan Gatfield, Head of EMEA CMBS, joins Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, to explore the current CRE environment, delving into rate cycle impacts and other factors such as e-commerce, post-Covid office space utilization and the energy transition

Post-Election Economic Outlook for Turkiye

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 13:31:23 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Lead Analyst on Turkiye, discuss the positive rating actions around Turkiye following the country’s 2023 economic policy changes, and the impact of recent local elections.

Risk Headquarters 2Q24

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 08 May 2024 18:38:20 +0000

Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, dive into the latest Risk Headquarters report, outlining the main risks to global credit this quarter including real estate, geopolitics, China macroeconomics, and more.

Credit Views on Pakistan Post-Election

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 23 Apr 2024 10:11:27 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Pakistan discuss the results of Pakistan’s recent elections, their implications for IMF talks, and the country’s reform potential and funding prospects.

The Growing World of Private Credit

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:28:15 +0000

Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, dive into the rapidly expanding private credit sector, covering the origins of the space, its growing profile following the 2008 financial crisis and more.

Economic Reforms In Argentina Under Milei - The First 100 Days

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 29 Mar 2024 15:45:53 +0000

Join Shelly Shetty, Head of Sovereign Ratings for Asia & the Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Argentina Analyst & Americas Co-Head, as they discuss the potential economic impacts and rating implications for Argentina under President Milei.

Outlook for Chinese Credit - What to Expect in 2024

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 19 Mar 2024 14:30:04 +0000

Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, is joined by fellow Credit Policy Senior Director Lan Wang to discuss the outlook for China’s economy, covering policy support, fiscal rebalancing and the property sector, among other topics.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Risks in the Middle East and North Africa

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 08 Mar 2024 11:35:11 +0000

Toby Iles, Head of MEA Sovereigns, joins Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich to break down the economic and rating implications of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa.

A Challenging Environment for U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 26 Feb 2024 18:38:33 +0000

Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, and Melissa Che, Senior Director, North America CMBS, explore the challenges facing U.S. commercial real estate in 2024, including refinancing issues, weakened fundamentals and more.

2024 Global Credit Outlook - Key Themes and What to Expect

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 23:37:25 +0000

Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Senior Director, discuss the key themes of Fitch’s recent 2024 Global Outlook report, including sustained elevated interest rates, asset quality deterioration, a US growth slowdown, and more.

Opportunities for Supply Chain Diversification In Emerging Markets

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 24 Jan 2024 21:29:49 +0000

Fitch sovereign analysts Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Todd Martinez, Senior Director, and Jeremy Zook, Director, discuss the impact of supply chain diversification trends such as nearshoring/friendshoring on emerging markets.

Global Economic Outlook - High Rates and Slowing Growth

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 18 Dec 2023 13:49:12 +0000

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch's Global Economic Outlook for 2024, including stagnation in the Eurozone, property market concerns in China, and slowing growth in the US

Fiscal Developments in Western Europe

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 20:49:21 +0000

Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Greg Kiss, Sovereigns Director, discuss how underlying fiscal trends in Western Europe have become more challenging in 2023, and divergent debt dynamics among the regions' economies.

Assessing Common Framework Debt Restructuring

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 15 Nov 2023 05:51:53 +0000

Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich is joined by MEA Associate Director Thomas Garreau to discuss the functioning of sovereign restructurings under the G20 Common Framework and cases of its application.

Outlook on APAC Frontier Markets

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 02 Nov 2023 14:51:22 +0000

APAC Frontier Markets continue to face external financing challenges - join Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Sovereign Directors Sagarika Chandra and Krisjanis Krustins, for a discussion of what to expect in these markets in 2024.

US Sovereign Rating and Outlook Going Forward

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 04 Oct 2023 18:28:49 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the recently averted US government shutdown, the August 1st ratings downgrade, and the outlook for US public finances & the rating going forward.

China's slowdown and sovereign risks

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:22:14 +0000

As Fitch cuts its forecasts for China’s economic growth, Thomas Rookmaaker, Jeremy Zook and Brian Coulton discuss the implications of the deteriorating macro-outlook for China’s sovereign creditworthiness.

Nigeria - Policy Settings Under the New Government

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 18 Sep 2023 13:01:35 +0000

Toby Iles, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereigns, and Doug Winslow, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the direction of reform and related credit developments since the new Nigerian administration took office.

Resilience, Nearshoring and What to Expect from Mexico’s Economy

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 10 Aug 2023 14:00:00 +0000

Japan’s monetary policy: shifting gears or doubling down?

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 24 Jul 2023 08:33:50 +0000

Will the Bank of Japan follow the world in tightening? How far could rates go? What could that mean for public finances? Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Japan, explore Fitch’s latest thinking.

How Sustainable are Egypt's External Finances

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 18 Jul 2023 13:38:37 +0000

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, and Laure de Nervo, Primary Egypt Analyst, look into the current pressures on Egypt’s economy following Fitch’s downgrade of its sovereign credit rating in May.

Global Economic Outlook – Central Bank Inflation Fight Continues

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 14:29:34 +0000

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, explore Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report, covering China's recovery, central bank inflation concerns, and more.

Turkish Elections and the Economic Impact

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 19 Jun 2023 10:23:11 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Sovereigns Senior Director, discuss the recent elections in Turkey, and how policy decisions by the Erdogan administration may impact the domestic economy

Central America’s Positive Rating Momentum

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 26 May 2023 12:38:19 +0000

Stress and consequences for the US Banking Sector

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 05 Apr 2023 10:02:46 +0000

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, James Longsdon, Global Head of Banks, and Christopher Wolfe, Head of Bank Ratings, North America, discuss the recent volatility in the US banking sector, including what still to watch in 2023.

Kazakhstan - Geopolitics and Oil Exports

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 12:32:20 +0000

Crude oil exports to Western Europe are vital to Kazakhstan's economy - learn more about the related geopolitical challenges from Michele Napolitano, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, Emerging Europe Sovereigns

India’s Fiscal Outlook after the 2023 Budget

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 06 Mar 2023 08:05:06 +0000

In this edition of Fixed Interests, Sovereigns Senior Director Thomas Rookmaaker, and Director Jeremy Zook, discuss India's fiscal outlook after the recent budget, including plans for sustaining growth while targeting modest deficit reductions.

Rate Hikes and Canadian Consumers

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 18:37:56 +0000

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Mike Girard, Director, ABS, and Mark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, explore how recent bank rate hikes are impacting Canadian consumers - from unemployment rates, to household debt & more.

What to Expect From Brazil’s New Government

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 13 Jan 2023 18:46:34 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the policy and rating outlook for Brazil under the new government of President Lula, following his October election win over Jair Bolsonaro.

Global Economic Outlook - Inflation Battle Intensifies

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 14 Dec 2022 12:58:13 +0000

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director discuss the recessionary outlook in Europe and the US as inflation pressures broaden and central banks are forced to take tougher monetary policy actions.

U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls - What to Expect

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 05 Dec 2022 20:18:17 +0000

The US government recently announced new restrictions on China’s access to US semiconductor technology - join Fitch analysts Carla Taylor, Jason Pompeii and Chaim Kurland for a discussion on what to expect from the new regulations going into 2023.

US Economic Outlook and Implications of the Midterm Elections

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:08:53 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the potential economic implications of mid-term elections in the U.S.

GCC Fiscal Update

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 04:50:12 +0000

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Toby Iles, Head of MEA Sovereign Ratings, discuss the impact of high crude oil revenues on the fiscal policies of GCC sovereigns.

Europe's Energy Crisis

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 23 Sep 2022 14:06:12 +0000

Paul Gamble and Federico Barriga Salazar from the Emerging Europe sovereign team and Michele Napolitano, head of Western Europe sovereign ratings discuss the rating implications of the shutdown in Russian gas supplies to the EU.

Argentina - Still on the Brink After IMF Deal

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 24 Aug 2022 13:13:31 +0000

Despite Argentina's deal with the IMF earlier this year, the country's macroeconomic vulnerabilities are mounting, and it remains unclear if political heavyweight and new economy minister Sergio Massa can do what it takes to get things on track.

Colombia - Prospects and Challenges under President-elect Petro

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 01 Aug 2022 13:41:52 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Sovereigns Managing Director, and Richard Francis, Primary Analyst for Colombia, discuss the outlook for Colombia’s economy, public finances & governability under the incoming administration of Gustavo Petro who assumes presidency in August.

US Rating Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 17:14:07 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Charles Seville, Co-Head of Americas Sovereigns, discuss the US’s sovereign rating and the rationale behind Fitch’s recent decision to revise the Outlook to Stable from Negative.

Tight Monetary Policy and Global Growth

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 11 Jul 2022 22:29:05 +0000

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch, joins Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, to discuss unrelenting global inflation pressures, the Fed’s impending return to a restrictive monetary policy stance and the implications for the global economy.

Philippines - Post Election Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 06 Jun 2022 05:20:33 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Sagarika Chandra, Lead Analyst for the Philippines, discuss the President-Elect’s economic agenda and the implications for the sovereign’s BBB rating and Negative Outlook.

Canada Public Financial Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 23 May 2022 13:13:09 +0000

Doug Offerman, Senior Director for Canadian provincial ratings, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director for the Canada rating, discuss the credit impact of the 2022 budget season for Canada, Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

Sustainability Landscape & Islamic Finance in GCC

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 12 May 2022 08:29:55 +0000

Saif Shawqi, Associate Director, Islamic Finance, and Bashar Al Natoor, Global Head of Islamic Finance, discuss the development of ESG-related products in the GCC, the growth of green & sustainable sukuk, and more.

Chile - Post-Inauguration Expectations

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 14 Apr 2022 15:04:59 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, explore the economic and fiscal outlook for Chile in 2022 and the prospects under the new administration of President Gabriel Boric.

Turkey’s post-downgrade economic outlook

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 22 Mar 2022 14:04:54 +0000

Senior Sovereign Ratings Directors Jan Friederich and Erich Morales discuss the economic outlook and operating environment in Turkey following Fitch's February downgrade of the country's sovereign credit rating to 'B+' from 'BB-'.

Macroeconomic Outlooks on Central and Eastern Europe

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 28 Feb 2022 10:10:44 +0000

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Malgorzata Kleniewska Wodtke, Senior Director of Financial Institutions, discuss the macroeconomic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe, including growth expectations, inflation and more.

India’s Fiscal Outlook after the Budget

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 21 Feb 2022 03:00:46 +0000

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, Sovereigns Director, Lead Analyst for India, discuss the implications of India’s recent budget for the medium-term fiscal outlook and sovereign rating.

Ghana’s Downgrade with Negative Outlook and Zambia’s G20 Common Framework Prospects

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:04:18 +0000

Toby Iles, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Jermaine Leonard, Sovereigns Director, Lead Analyst for Ghana and Zambia, discuss the recent downgrade of Ghana’s sovereign rating and consider Zambia’s G20 Common Framework prospects.

What’s Next for Irelands’ Sovereign Rating

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 21 Dec 2021 22:08:41 +0000

Michele Napolitano, Head of Western Europe Sovereigns and Malgorzata Glowacka, Associate Director, discuss the findings of Fitch’s recent special report “Ireland’s Exceptional Economic Performance Places Debt/GDP on a Firm Downward Path”

Inflation Fears Take Centre Stage

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 13 Dec 2021 17:26:09 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Head of Americas and Asia Pacific Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the policy implications of increasing inflation as the Fed responds to growing evidence that US inflation is broadening to services and wages.

Andorran Banks - Navigating Challenges Ahead

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 17:15:22 +0000

Cristina Torrella, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, and Fernando Sanchez, Lead Analyst for Andorran banks, discuss latest developments in the Andorran operating environment, as well as how banks are expected to navigate challenges ahead.

Sovereign Trends in the Andean Region

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 13:11:53 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss how elevated commodity prices and the reopening of domestic economies are helping Chile, Colombia and Peru recover from the shock of Covid-19.

Assessing Cyber Risk at Banks and Insurance Companies

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 20 Oct 2021 14:02:42 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Marjan van der Weijden, Global Head of Financial Institutions, explore how cyber risk can be assessed at banks and insurance companies, as well as Fitch's recent collaboration with SecurityScorecard.

Central America - Macroeconomic Outlook and Recovery

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 15:20:20 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Latin America Sovereigns, discuss the macroeconomic and fiscal outlook for Central America, including the region's recovery from pandemic-related disruptions.

GCC Update - Budgets, Oil Prices and Reform Prospects

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 02 Sep 2021 05:54:07 +0000

Jan Friederich, Head of MEA Sovereigns, and Toby Iles, Lead GCC Sovereign Analyst, discuss GCC fiscal prospects amid higher oil prices, Oman’s medium term fiscal plan and the tension between fiscal consolidation and diversification in the region.

Canada Banks - Calm in Stormy Waters

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 06 Aug 2021 13:58:14 +0000

Mark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director, Americas Sovereign Ratings, talk rating implications for Canadian banks & the country's macroeconomic environment following Fitch’s 2020 sovereign rating downgrade.

Argentina and Ecuador - Tackling Policy Challenges Ahead

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 19 Jul 2021 17:10:13 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Americas Sovereigns, explore the macroeconomic and political challenges ahead in Argentina and Ecuador following their respective debt restructurings in 2020.

Rule of Law and Sovereign Ratings in Central and Eastern Europe

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 07 Jul 2021 16:19:14 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, discuss the rising prominence of rule of law issues in CEE and how they impact sovereign ratings.

Mexico's Prospects After the Mid-Term Congressional Elections

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:07:35 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Charles Seville, Co-Head of Americas Sovereign Ratings, discuss the potential economic implications of Mexico’s recent mid-term congressional elections.

NextGen EU

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 14 Jun 2021 15:20:27 +0000

Michele Napolitano, Head of Fitch’s Western Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings, discuss the impact of the Next Generation EU Fund on EU growth prospects and public finances.

US Inflation Pressures, Bond Yields and the Fed

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 25 May 2021 13:40:18 +0000

Elevated debt levels in the wake of COVID-19 have exposed borrowers to global interest rate risks. Join Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, as they discuss the outlook for US inflation, bond yields and the Fed.

Fitch Presents "China Perspectives"

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 14 May 2021 02:24:36 +0000

How will China’s 14th Five-Year Plan impact its medium-term growth prospects? Will the Chinese yuan soon challenge the US dollar as one of the world’s leading global currencies?

These are among the topics we will discuss on “China Perspectives,” a new Fitch Ratings podcast hosted by the firm’s lead sovereign analyst for China, Andrew Fennell. China Perspectives will feature candid discussions on the economic and credit developments most impacting China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.

As the first international credit rating agency to set up an office in in China in 1997, Fitch has unparalleled experience and market share in the region, with 21 active offices across the Asia-Pacific region.

Subscribe to the new Fitch China Perspectives podcast, and stay tuned for our inaugural episode on the current state of onshore bond defaults, out this April on your podcast app.

EM Taper Tantrum Risks

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 07 May 2021 15:33:07 +0000

Ed Parker, Head of Fitch’s EMEA Sovereign Ratings, and Tony Stringer, a Managing Director in the Sovereigns Group, discuss the risks facing emerging and frontier markets from Fed tapering its quantitative easing programme and rising US bond yields.

Colombia - Economic, Fiscal and Ratings Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 29 Apr 2021 13:02:48 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director & Primary Analyst on Colombia, discuss Colombia’s economy, the recently unveiled tax reform, and key factors to resolve the country’s negative outlook.

Revision of Turkey’s Outlook to Stable

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 17 Mar 2021 13:57:01 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereigns and Douglas Winslow, Director, discuss Fitch’s the revision of the Outlook on Turkey’s ratings to Stable from Negative and the recent evolution of economic policy.

GCC Update

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 09 Feb 2021 02:33:38 +0000

Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereigns and Krisjanis Krustins, Director covering GCC sovereign ratings, discuss GCC ratings in light of higher oil prices, political developments and reform announcements.

Biden Administration Policy and Sovereign Ratings Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 19 Jan 2021 14:01:40 +0000

In this podcast, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director in the Sovereigns group, and Charles Seville, Senior Director in the Sovereign group, discuss what the Biden administration means for U.S. economic policy and the U.S. sovereign rating outlook.

Outlook on Sub-Saharan African Sovereigns and the Debt Markets

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 01 Dec 2020 03:49:41 +0000

Cote d’Ivoire recently became the first Sub-Saharan African sovereign to access international markets since the start of the pandemic crisis. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings, and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns, discuss SSA’s growth prospects for 2021 and the financing pressures in the region.

Argentina and Ecuador - Post-Restructuring Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 16 Nov 2020 19:02:49 +0000

In the latest Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director of Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Director of Sovereigns, discuss the future economic prospects and challenges in Argentina and Ecuador following their respective debt restructurings in September. They compare and contrast the two restructurings and examine Fitch’s upgrade of Argentina’s ratings to CCC and Ecuador to B- with stable outlook, and the risk factors to monitor in these countries in 2021.

Downgrade of Morocco’s Sovereign Rating

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 30 Oct 2020 07:33:37 +0000

Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Mahmoud Harb, Director, discuss the rationale for the recent downgrade of Morocco’s ratings to BB+ with Stable Outlook, the pandemic impact and prospects for the country.

Korea’s Steady Performance Amidst Pandemic Headwinds

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 13 Oct 2020 07:17:27 +0000

Amidst the global pandemic, Korea is outperforming its peers as a result of virus containment and rebounding exports. Stephen Schwartz and Jeremy Zook of APAC Sovereign Ratings discuss Korea’s economic and trade outlook, policies, and key risks.

Central America’s Weakening Fundamentals - Challenges Amidst US Recession & Health Pandemic

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 30 Sep 2020 19:58:10 +0000

In this latest podcast, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director of Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director of Latin America Sovereigns, discuss sovereign trends in Central America. They delve into the challenges Central America are facing including fiscal pressures, headwinds from the U.S. and the global recession, spread of the coronavirus, downgrades and Negative outlooks ratings, and more. Find out which countries can be more resilient and what’s ahead for the region.

The Negative Outlook On Turkey’s Sovereign Rating

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 27 Aug 2020 15:15:36 +0000

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Douglas Winslow, Director and lead analyst for Turkey, discuss Fitch’s recent revision of the Outlook on Turkey’s sovereign rating to Negative from Stable.

Indonesia’s Credit Profile in the Age of COVID-19

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 17 Aug 2020 09:54:36 +0000

Stephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings and Thomas Rookmaaker, Director and Lead Analyst for Indonesia, discuss the economic impact of the Coronavirus in Indonesia, the fiscal and monetary policy responses and long term growth prospect.

Increased Fiscal and External Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereigns

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 29 Jul 2020 08:10:23 +0000

The pandemic has had a heavy impact on SSA ratings. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Jermaine Leonard, Director, discuss the impact on sovereign ratings, the oil price shock, financing pressures and the G20 DSSI.

Climate Change: The Impact on Sovereign Ratings

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 21 Jul 2020 11:15:00 +0000

Climate change is a huge topic of political, social and financial market discourse. Ed Parker, Head of Fitch’s EMEA Sovereign Ratings, and Tony Stringer, a Managing Director in the Sovereigns Group, discuss the main types of climate change risks, the uncertainties involved and the impact on sovereign ratings.

Peru's Rating Trajectory: Challenges Ahead

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 20:29:53 +0000

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director and primary analyst for Peru, discuss the recent downgrade of Peru’s Local Currency IDR and its equalization with the Foreign Currency IDR which was also affirmed with a Stable Outlook. They examine the challenges ahead for Peru’s economic and fiscal profiles amid the coronavirus pandemic and an impending election cycle.

Nigeria and the Pandemic Shock

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 04 Jun 2020 02:13:47 +0000

Nigeria faces significant challenges from the pandemic shock. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Mahmoud Harb, Director, discuss ongoing pressures on Nigeria’s external finances, its funding plan and growth outlook.

Global Economic Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 26 May 2020 11:07:33 +0000

Forecasts cut again, but global economy close to bottoming out. Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook - Crisis Update, May 2020

Update on the GCC – Impact of Oil Shock and the Coronavirus Crisis

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 14:30:04 +0000

The GCC has been severely impacted by the global coronavirus pandemic. In this podcast, Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, Director and GCC Sovereigns analyst, discuss how sharply lower oil prices and the coronavirus crisis affect GCC sovereign ratings and currency pegs.

Downgrade of Mexico’s Sovereign Rating

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 11:20:30 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas, and Charles Seville, Senior Director, Americas Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s rating downgrade, our main rationale behind our rating action and our overall views on how Mexico is placed to face the current difficult circumstances of global recession, including the contraction of the U.S., lower oil prices, coronavirus impact and other potential hits. What are the main drivers of Mexico’s economic recession? How will Mexico respond to the external shocks, and what’s ahead?

China's Recovery from COVID-19

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 02:46:04 +0000

The lockdown on Wuhan has been lifted and China’s economy is recovering gradually. Stephen Schwartz and Andrew Fennell of APAC Sovereign Ratings, discuss China’s economic prospects, the course of policies, and implications for the sovereign rating.

Global Economic Crisis

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 06 Apr 2020 22:10:28 +0000

Global GDP is collapsing as the COVID-19 crisis escalates rapidly. Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook - Crisis Update.

Lockdown

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 20 Mar 2020 18:06:06 +0000

With the coronavirus crisis taking an extraordinarily heavy toll on the world economy, Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the latest Global Economic Outlook forecasts and downside scenarios.

Ireland: Elections and Rating Assessment

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 04 Mar 2020 10:06:39 +0000

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Michele Napolitano, Head of the Western Europe team, and Alex Muscatelli, from the Western Europe team and Primary Analyst for Ireland, discuss the implications of Ireland’s recent election for our analysis, and the outcome of our recent rating review of Ireland.

Unrest in Chile and Colombia: The Economic Impact & Risks Ahead

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 21 Feb 2020 19:05:51 +0000

What are the economic and political implications of the recent social protests in Chile and Colombia, and what does the future hold? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Richard Francis, Director of Sovereign Ratings and Primary Analyst for Colombia and Chile, discuss how the aftershocks of the recent social unrest impacted the growth outlook and political profile of each of the countries. The overall impact was much more profound in Chile, leading Fitch to significantly revise its previous baseline growth and fiscal forecasts. In contrast, the impact on Colombia’s growth was relatively benign but there were some negative fiscal implications, an area where Fitch already had concerns given the rise in debt to GDP over the past five years. Despite the recent fall in the intensity of the protests, risks and uncertainties remain.

CIS and Black Sea Region Rating Cycle Slowing

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 17:58:16 +0000

Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Black Sea Region have experienced positive rating momentum recently, with four upgrades in 2019. Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Senior Director on the Sovereign team, discuss the factors behind the improvement in the regions rating, and why Fitch believes that further upgrades may be tougher to achieve.

Asian Frontier Markets

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 23 Jan 2020 02:12:13 +0000

Asia’s Frontier Markets have great potential, but are also prone to external financing pressures. Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, moderates a discussion with Sagarika Chandra and Jeremy Zook, Associate Directors on the Sovereigns team, to discuss the ratings outlook for Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam. Sagarika explains the rationale for the recent revision of Sri Lanka’s outlook to negative, in contrast to Vietnam’s positive outlook. Jeremy discusses progress being made to strengthen Pakistan’s public and external finances, and what it would take for Pakistan’s rating to move higher.

Global Economic Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 05 Dec 2019 15:34:00 +0000

The relative stability of the service sector - which accounts for 70% of GDP in the advanced economies – should help global growth to stabilise next year after a sharp leg down in 2019. Manufacturing has been hit much harder by the trade war, the related decline in business investment and the broader emerging market slowdown and we do not expect any rebound, even if signs are emerging that the downturn maybe starting to ease. Service sector output is much more closely tied to consumer spending, where tight labour markets and solid household income growth are supporting steady growth.

Demographic Trends

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 28 Nov 2019 16:59:17 +0000

Demographic trends such as declining or rapidly expanding populations, a bulging youth cohort or pronounced ageing can create risks to sovereign creditworthiness. Key channels of impact include stagnant potential GDP growth, unsustainable pension systems and public debt, and risks to social and political stability. Demographic forces are already affecting some sovereign ratings and Fitch Ratings believes they are likely to become a more important driver over the medium term.

Argentina's Post-Election & Debt Restructuring Prospects

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 04 Nov 2019 16:27:24 +0000

What are the implications of Argentina’s most recent presidential election, and how will it affect the nation’s current economic uncertainty? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss President-elect Alberto Fernandez’s potential fiscal policies to help stem inflation, the pending renegotiation of the IMF program, and necessary debt restructuring to avoid default and establish a sustainable financial position.

Fixed Interests Global Economic Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 01 Oct 2019 09:27:17 +0000

World growth forecasts have been cut across the board following the escalation in the US-China trade war in August. We now expect world growth in 2020 to fall to 2.5% , the lowest rate since 2012. Trade policy disruptions will adversely affect exports, manufacturing and business investment and there are limits as to how effective monetary policy easing will be in softening the blow.

Global Sovereign Conferences Key Talking Points

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 29 Aug 2019 06:14:16 +0000

James McCormack, Head of Sovereign Ratings and Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, provide a preview of key issues that will be discussed at Fitch’s Global Sovereign Conferences taking place in Asia, Europe and the U.S. during the weeks of September 9th and 16th. Issues include the growth implications of the China-US trade war, and policy space across Asia for stimulus, if required, in light of risks to the growth outlook. Check out the events page on Fitchratings.com for more information and conference registration.

South Africa Economic and Political Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 21 Aug 2019 03:28:46 +0000

Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East and African Sovereign Ratings, explains the key drivers behind the decision to revise the outlook on South Africa to Negative and affirm the rating at ‘BB+’ in a conversation with Stephen Schwartz, Senior Director, Sovereign Ratings. They also discuss South Africa’s economic and political outlook from a credit perspective.

Sovereign Trends in Central America

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 08 Aug 2019 18:37:42 +0000

As a result of political polarization, fiscal constraints, and rising tensions with the U.S. over immigration policy, Central America faces political instability; currently, three out of five countries in the region have negative outlooks. In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, co-Head of Latin American Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director of Sovereign Ratings, discuss the latest trends in Central America Sovereigns as well as the more common themes behind some of the recent negative rating actions.

Political Developments in Spain

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 01 Aug 2019 15:34:12 +0000

Michele Napolitano, Head of Western Europe Sovereigns, and Alex Muscatelli, Director, discuss the failure of Pedro Sanchez to win a confidence vote in the Spanish parliament on 25 July. This could delay fiscal consolidation measures scheduled for 2020, although this would not significantly change our debt-to-GDP projections. The increase in political instability in recent years has not damaged the economic recovery that has supported Spain’s fiscal adjustment. However, a cyclical slowdown will lessen the role of GDP growth in deficit reduction.

India Fiscal and Growth Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 24 Jul 2019 01:04:36 +0000

Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, and Thomas Rookmaaker, Director and Lead Analyst for India of Sovereigns Ratings, discuss India’s fiscal and growth outlook, along with the key drivers of the sovereign rating.

Sub-Saharan African Debt

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 08 Jul 2019 13:09:21 +0000

Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings discuss Sub-Saharan African (SSA) debt, noting government debt/GDP has risen steeply in SSA, with the median of 19 Fitch-rated sovereigns doubling since 2012 to 56% at end-2018. Fitch believes that SSA sovereigns have used some of the fiscal space afforded by the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative to boost investment, GDP growth and human development.

Global Economic Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 17 Jun 2019 13:02:55 +0000

Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, say threats to the global growth outlook from trade protectionism have become much more significant in recent months. The breakdown of US-China trade negotiations, the recent use of a US tariff threat to pressure Mexico to change migration policies, and the rising chance of a no-deal Brexit all raise the possibility of disruptions to global trade that could have a much bigger impact on the world economy than anything seen over the course of 2018.

Mexico Downgraded on Pemex Risks, Trade Tensions, and Policy Uncertainty

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 06 Jun 2019 19:25:05 +0000

Shelly Shetty and Charles Seville, Co-Heads of Sovereigns Ratings for the Americas, discuss the recent downgrade of Mexico's credit ratings. Key drivers for the rating action include liability of Pemex's deteriorating credit profile, poor economic growth performance exacerbated by trade tensions, and domestic policy uncertainty from the new administration.

Risks Remain for Argentina in 2019

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 28 May 2019 20:15:21 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss the Negative Rating Outlook for the country against a backdrop of continuing high inflation, economic contraction, as well as a competitive presidential election in October.

Fiscal Trends in the GCC

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 12 Apr 2019 18:54:30 +0000

Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, Director focusing on GCC sovereigns, discuss the fiscal trends in the region, the risks stemming from the oil market, the credibility and direction of reforms and the outlook for sovereign ratings.

Biggest Fall in Global Growth Since 2012

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 26 Mar 2019 10:43:24 +0000

In the latest Fixed Interests Podcast,Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the Global Economic Outlook for 2019, noting global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since December 2018.

Colombia’s Fiscal Challenges and Tax Reform

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 18 Mar 2019 13:04:37 +0000

Shelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Richard Francis, Primary Fitch Analyst for Colombia, discuss the fiscal and growth challenges for Colombia and how the new government is trying to tackle those issues.

Russia, Positive Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 07 Mar 2019 09:31:23 +0000

Tony Stringer Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Erich Arispe, Director, Fitch Ratings, discuss the Positive Outlook for Russia which reflects continued progress in strengthening the economic policy framework underpinned by a more flexible exchange rate, a strong commitment to inflation-targeting and a prudent fiscal strategy. This policy mix has increased the economy's resilience to shocks and helped preserve macroeconomic and financial stability despite the heightened sanctions' risk

Public Finances at Risk When Next Recession Strikes

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 07 Feb 2019 14:58:42 +0000

Public finances in several developed markets look exposed when the next recession eventually strikes, with potential negative consequences for some sovereign ratings.

Costa Rica

Fitch Ratings — Sun, 03 Feb 2019 18:31:08 +0000

Persistently high fiscal deficits leading to rising debt burden and high government financing needs has led Fitch to downgrade Costa Rica. Charles Seville, Head of North America Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Sovereigns, discuss Costa Rica in more detail, exploring the reasons behind the downgrade and how this negative outlook may be resolved.

Cracks Appearing in Global Growth Picture as 2020 Headwinds Rise

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 05 Dec 2018 11:57:54 +0000

Tune into our latest Fixed Interest podcast with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Tony Stringer, COO, Global Sovereigns Group, who discuss what's in store for the global economy in 2019. For more content providing in-depth insight into credit in 2019, including reports, videos and webinars visit our dedicated Credit Outlook page https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html

Global Economic Outlook: World Growth Forecast Cut on US-China Trade Battle

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 21 Sep 2018 10:36:59 +0000

Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Global Economic Outlook: Growth Robust to Political Risks

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 13 Jun 2018 14:59:25 +0000

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss how global growth prospects remain robust despite rising trade tensions and political risks. Accelerating private investment, tightening labor markets, pro-cyclical US fiscal easing and accommodative monetary policy are all supporting above-trend growth in advanced economies. While China’s growth rate is holding up better than expected so far in the face of slowing credit growth; Russia and Brazil continue to recover slowly.

Political Risk in Sovereign Ratings

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 11 May 2018 09:13:55 +0000

Political risk is a key determinant of sovereign creditworthiness, Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, say. They highlight that political and governance issues were the driving or supporting factors in a cumulative 47% of sovereign downgrades, rating crises, or defaults from 1997 to present. They point to current political events that may negatively affect ratings such as: • Activity in the Korean Peninsula • The Gulf and wider Middle Eastern tensions • US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal • Global oil prices

China Sovereign Update

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 09 Apr 2018 08:26:23 +0000

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns & Supranational Group, Fitch Ratings and Andrew Fennell, Director, Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings, discuss Fitch’s recent affirmation of China’s ‘A+’ rating. James and Andrew explore current policy settings, the growth outlook, and provide insights into the deleveraging story whilst giving Fitch’s view on whether household debt will become a credit issue.

Global Growth Booming, Banks Less Cautious

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 14 Mar 2018 15:59:15 +0000

The global economy is experiencing boom-like growth conditions and central banks are becoming less cautious as inflation risks rise, according to Fitch's latest "Global Economic Outlook" (GEO). The US, eurozone and China are all likely to grow well above trend in 2018 and global economic growth is set to remain above 3% for three consecutive years until 2019, a performance not achieved since the mid 2000s.

Eurozone Capital Expenditure Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Fri, 02 Feb 2018 14:45:08 +0000

The Eurozone Capital Expenditure (Capex) recovery had initially been a disappointment in the aftermath of the Eurozone crisis, lagging consumption and wider GDP. But the capex outlook is now looking a lot brighter and has been a key factor behind Fitch’s recent upgrades to its Eurozone GDP forecasts.

Fixed Interests: China’s growth potential will fall to 5.5%, well below India’s in next 5 years

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 17 Jan 2018 17:22:31 +0000

On the latest Fixed Interests, senior members of Fitch’s Economics and Sovereign teams discuss potential growth rates of the largest emerging markets. Analysis highlights the importance of demographic factors and investment rates, placing India ahead of China over the next 5 years with projected GDP growth of 6.7% versus 5.5%.

Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook: Around the World in 10 Minutes

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 08 Jan 2018 09:38:20 +0000

Monica Insoll, Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Director, Investor Development, provide a 10 minute high-level overview of Fitch Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook report which covers all rated sectors and regions. They identify the main macro issues that will drive credit trends over the next 12 to 24 months, focusing on what factors are most likely to drive rating changes in 2018.

Global Economic Outlook: Risks to Watch in 2018

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 11 Dec 2017 14:29:19 +0000

Global growth momentum remains strong and is likely to be sustained by an increasingly positive outlook for investment, says Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Sovereign Rating Crises & Recoveries

Fitch Ratings — Thu, 16 Nov 2017 09:51:53 +0000

Analytical Chief Operating Officer Tony Stringer and Managing Director Ed Parker discuss, in our latest Fixed Interests Podcast, the lessons for countries experiencing multiple downgrades or post-crisis upswings.

Global Economic Outlook: Sweet Spot for World Economy Won't Last Beyond 2018

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 02 Oct 2017 15:59:52 +0000

"Our forecasts imply something of a 'sweet spot' for the global economy in 2017 and 2018 with above-trend growth and still highly accommodative global monetary policies. However, this is not a pattern we expect to persist into 2019 and beyond as output gaps close in advanced economies and monetary policy support is withdrawn," said Brian Coulton, Fitch's Chief Economist.

Credit Market Insights: QE and World Growth Buoy Global Rating Outlooks

Fitch Ratings — Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:27:00 +0000

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings' Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Director, Business and Relationship Management, discuss the themes of Fitch Ratings' latest report: The Credit Outlook 3Q17 (QE and World Growth Buoy Global Rating Outlooks).

Global Economic Outlook: Strongest World Growth Expected Since 2010

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 20 Jun 2017 16:24:14 +0000

In our latest Global Economic Outlook James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereign Ratings and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss growth revisions in 2017 which are, for the most part, positive. There were 12 upgrades to growth forecasts of the 20 countries examined.

Credit Market Insights: European Growth Pick-Up Boosts 2017 Issuance

Fitch Ratings — Sun, 14 May 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings Head of Credit Market Research, talks with Michael Larsson, Director of Credit Market Research, about how European credit markets are being impacted by the improving economy, political risk, and ECB QE programmes.

Global Economic Outlook: Is US Monetary Policy Reaching an Inflation Point?

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 20 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000

James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss US monetary policy and the implications of the Fed's recent rate hike.

Credit Market Insights: Global Credit Outlook

Fitch Ratings — Mon, 23 Jan 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Monica Insoll, Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Associate Director, Investor Development, provide a 10 minute high-level overview of Fitch Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook report. They identify the main macro issues that will drive credit trends over the next 12 to 24 months, focussing on what factors are most likely to drive rating changes during 2017.

Credit Market Insights: European Bond Markets

Fitch Ratings — Tue, 13 Dec 2016 00:00:00 +0000

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Associate Director, Investor Development at Fitch Ratings discuss major themes in the European corporate and financial investment-grade and high-yield bond markets including issuance drivers and trends, the impact of QE, rating and overall credit quality trends and the outlook for 2017.

Global Economic Outlook: Changing Macro Policy Outlooks in the US and in China

Fitch Ratings — Sun, 04 Dec 2016 00:00:00 +0000

James McCormack, Fitch Global Head of Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist discuss a few of the major themes in the global economy, including: * The Fed, the dollar and the fiscal reflation story in the United States. * European dependence on loose monetary policy. * China housing market. * Potential changes in US trade policy towards China