• In Bangladesh, the sandbars of the Padma River in the Rajshahi and Chapainawabganj districts have become an unlikely hub for groundnut cultivation during the Rabi season. With support from the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, coverage has reached 1,100 to 1,500 bighas, with yields of 298 to 373 kilograms per bigha. Production costs of 10,000 to 15,000 taka per bigha are generating earnings of 45,000 to 50,000 taka, delivering profit margins of 30,000 to 35,000 taka per bigha. The initiative is meaningfully improving incomes in char communities that had previously relied on marginal agricultural activity.
• Nigeria's cashew sector is targeting export earnings of 867 trillion naira (approximately $632 million) by 2026, with Vietnam among the key destination markets. High freight costs driven by geopolitical disruptions remain a constraint. Domestically, less than 10% of cashew output is currently processed locally, but this is set to change with planned investment from Robust International in a new processing facility, in line with the National Cashew Association of Nigeria's push for greater value retention at origin. In Cote d'Ivoire's Berete region, coordinated group sales have enabled producers to adhere to mandated prices and quality standards, resulting in over 550 tons of cashews being evacuated through organised channels, providing price stability and improved market reliability.
• China has taken a significant policy step by opening its markets to all African nations that maintain diplomatic ties with the country, applying unified inspection and sanitary requirements to simplify the import process. This diversification of sourcing could redraw trade flows and exert competitive pressure on established cashew processing hubs in Vietnam and India.
• Iran's Rafsanjan region is maintaining pistachio export volumes at 25,000 tons despite maritime transport difficulties, with innovations in routing and cold storage infrastructure sustaining performance. The outlook is nonetheless cautious, with anticipated declines in national production posing a challenge to maintaining current export levels. In Afghanistan's Herat province, efforts are underway to expand irrigated pistachio orchards across 2,500 hectares, leveraging the region's suitability for drought-resistant crops and targeting both commercial returns and ecological benefits including improved water management and soil preservation. California's pistachio sector continues to record strong shipment and export growth, with strategic farming adaptations cited as central to maintaining its global market position ahead of potential El Nino-related climate disruption.

• In Iran, pistachio exports to the European Union remained resilient during the first quarter of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Export values increased slightly year over year, supported by a strategic shift toward higher-value pistachio kernels. Kernel exports rose modestly, while in-shell pistachio exports declined significantly, reflecting changing preferences among European buyers. Although imports by Germany decreased, stronger demand from other EU member states offset the decline, indicating a broader diversification of European purchasing patterns and continued demand for value-added products.
• South Africa's pistachio industry is positioning itself for long-term growth, targeting a 5% to 8% share of the global export market. Industry plans aim to expand annual production to approximately 60,000 metric tons by the late 2030s, supported by favorable international prices and supply gaps in Northern Hemisphere markets. Growth is concentrated in the Northern Cape region along the Orange River, although producers continue to face challenges related to climate suitability, water availability, and the need for significant investment in efficient production systems.
• In Turkey, hazelnut exports declined by 30.6% between January and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite lower shipment volumes, export revenues increased by 16.3%, driven by a sharp rise in unit values. Average export prices climbed substantially, highlighting strong global demand and tighter supply conditions. Turkey continues to strengthen its position as the world's leading hazelnut supplier by expanding into emerging markets, particularly in Africa, reducing its reliance on traditional European destinations and improving its long-term market resilience.

• Global pistachio production is projected at 701,000 tons for the current season, a 36.4% decline from the prior year, driven by the confluence of natural alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather, and regional production constraints. Global ending stocks are anticipated to fall 48.5% to 123,400 tons, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment and intensified procurement competition against a backdrop of steady demand.
• The United States is forecast to produce 350,000 tons, a 51.6% decline, attributable to alternate bearing compounded by high temperatures during bloom that caused bloom stress, reduced nut set, uneven cluster formation, and flower drop.
• Iran is projected at 130,000 tons, a 42.2% decline, reflecting the combined effect of alternate bearing and severe drought conditions.
• Turkey is on course for a 36.5% production increase to 156,400 tons, representing a partial recovery driven by favorable cycle positioning, though ongoing drought and irrigation constraints are keeping output below 2024/25 levels. Syria, Australia, and Greece are also expected to post production gains, while Italy faces a substantial decline.
• Afghanistan's historic pistachio belt is undergoing reforestation efforts targeting 200,000,000 trees by 2030, though severe drought is threatening sapling survival rates. Community-based forest management is central to the initiative, with near-term commercial supply implications remaining minimal as the program remains in an ecological restoration phase.
• Spain's almond production for 2026/27 is forecast at 135,250 metric tons, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, supported by new orchard maturation and a 6% expansion in planted area. Andalusia and Catalonia are leading output growth, while Castilla La Mancha is facing weather-related yield pressure. The organic segment has been additionally impacted by frost, though the national outlook remains constructive overall.

• Turkey's hazelnut market is operating under the shadow of domestic political instability following the removal of opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, which triggered protests and a surge in foreign currency demand. The central bank has maintained exchange rate stability thus far, and physical supply chains and production remain unaffected. However, rising government bond yields and elevated local financing costs are pressuring suppliers, who may be incentivized to offload stocks prematurely, adding downward price pressure. In-shell hazelnut prices are currently stable at TRY 170 per kilogram, with FOB Istanbul prices for natural 11-13mm hazelnuts at $9.17 per kilogram and natural 13-15mm at $10.56 per kilogram. Turkish export shipments declined in early 2026 due to a smaller crop and tighter quality controls.
• Buyer sentiment is broadly cautious. Major end-users including Ferrero are bidding at low levels, particularly for giresun-quality nuts, and are deliberately delaying purchases in anticipation of further price softening supported by favorable crop forecasts and ample carryover inventories. The Turkish Grain Board's pricing stance for raw nuts is the primary counterweight to this expectation, and its intervention level will be decisive for market direction. Without active board engagement, trading volumes are at risk of remaining subdued against a backdrop of elevated capital costs.
• Georgia is gaining ground in the EU premium segment, with natural 13-15mm hazelnuts trading at approximately EUR 10.90 per kilogram. Favorable weather conditions have supported stable supply without weather-driven price disruption, sustaining a consistent premium. Georgia's improving kernel quality is increasingly capturing EU buyers that would previously have sourced Turkish origin, representing a medium-term structural challenge to Turkey's dominant export position. If EU demand strengthens, a divergence between stable Georgian prices and firming Turkish kernel prices is a plausible near-term outcome.

• The cashew sector is pivoting toward value chain diversification by capitalizing on the underutilized cashew apple byproduct. A national workshop on sustainable cashew production highlighted the potential to convert cashew apples into food, beverage, and extracted products (such as pectin), thereby generating supplementary income streams alongside traditional nut revenues. This diversification approach could stabilize grower and processor incomes while reducing waste and maximizing plant utility from the entire cashew tree.
• Sustainable production practices are critical to realizing cashew apple value chain potential. Key focus areas include developing improved cultivars, enhancing orchard management, advancing pest and disease control, and optimizing post-harvest protocols to maintain both nut quality and apple usability. Standardization and farmer knowledge transfer of these methods are essential to ensure consistent product quality and market viability across producing regions.
• Cashew apple processing faces significant logistical constraints requiring infrastructure investment. The fruit's high perishability necessitates efficient collection and processing systems located near orchard sites. Successful execution also requires compliance with food safety standards, clear product labeling for regulatory approval and consumer acceptance, and deployment of small-scale equipment alongside farmer training in handling and processing techniques. These infrastructure requirements present both barriers to entry and opportunities for organized value chain development.

• Bangladesh's cashew industry is grappling with severe market challenges, primarily due to the impact of cheaper imported cashews, which are undermining local processor competitiveness. The production cost for local processors is approximately TK 1,300 per kilogram excluding profits. However, imported cashew kernels priced between TK 1,400 and TK 1,500 per kilogram undercut the necessary selling price of TK 1,950 to TK 2,000 per kilogram required for local processors to remain viable.
• A crucial factor is the tax differential between imported cashews with testa (skin) taxed at $4.1 per kilogram and processed cashews taxed at $6 per kilogram, resulting in a tax advantage of TK 101 to TK 107. This has catalyzed a significant shift in import trends, with cashews with testa surging from negligible amounts in fiscal year 2024 to 87% in the first ten months of fiscal year 2026. Consequently, domestic investment is stalling, and local cashew farms are witnessing plummeting prices due to decreased procurement by processors striving to compete with more affordable imports.
• In response to these pressures, the Bangladeshi government is deliberating potential changes to import valuation mechanisms and customs classifications to alleviate strains on domestic processors. The current customs valuation misalignment allows imported cashews to undercut local market prices, thereby discouraging investment in domestic processing. Authorities are reviewing policies concerning these valuation rules, with revisions potentially featuring in the forthcoming national budget to address these discrepancies and support local industry viability.
• The influx of cheaper imports compels local processors to operate below breakeven levels, inciting operational losses and diminishing procurement from region-specific cashew farms, particularly affecting areas like Rangameedi. Farm gate prices for raw cashews have dropped from TK 6,000 to TK 6,500 per month to TK 4,800 to TK 5,200 per month. Since cashew cultivation area expanded substantially post-2021 involving roughly 3,500 farmers, the present market dynamics threaten these farmers' economic stability. Policy realignments are essential to develop a competitive stance for the local cashew industry while safeguarding the livelihoods of farmers who rely on this crop across Bangladesh.

• Sudan's Rahad Agricultural Project has commenced groundnut planting across 840 hectares, with ambitions to expand to approximately 2,940 hectares. Historical yields of up to 119 sacks per hectare underline the agronomic potential of the area. However, operations face significant non-weather risk: militia activity by the Rapid Support Forces has historically caused crop failures and displacement, and logistical constraints further threaten planting, maintenance, and harvest timelines. Local leaders are calling for greater government coordination to secure both the physical and logistical conditions needed to protect agricultural output, which carries meaningful revenue importance for the regional economy.
• In Nigeria, a proposed export ban on raw cashew nuts is generating significant pushback from the National Cashew Association of Nigeria and smallholder farmers. While the policy is intended to stimulate domestic processing and value addition, the existing infrastructure is insufficient to absorb national production, with current processing capacity covering less than 10% of output. High domestic interest rates of 25% to 35% and elevated energy costs make processing investment financially difficult, and the three to four month harvest window limits operational flexibility. Implementing the ban without first resolving these structural gaps risks depressing farm gate prices, reducing smallholder incomes, and disrupting global supply chains given Nigeria's significant role in cashew exports.
• California's almond sector is under sustained pressure from drought and water scarcity, with reduced acreage and increasing reliance on deficit irrigation contributing to lower yields and potential quality deterioration. Market indicators point to rising almond prices as supply tightens against stable demand, placing global buyers in a more constrained procurement environment. Producers are weighing the difficult trade-off between removing underperforming orchards and committing to sustainable practices that may not deliver near-term returns. The pistachio segment, by contrast, remains relatively stable and is providing some offset for buyers navigating tighter almond availability.

• India's groundnut market is seeing heightened demand for sowing seeds, with prices rising to around $78.50 per quintal and seed rates up 25 to 30% compared to the previous season. The Strait of Hormuz blockade, alongside domestic geopolitical pressures and government auction activity, has fostered cautious buying behavior and elevated retail purchases. Export prices to Indonesia are ranging from $1,300 to $1,350 per metric ton, reflecting sustained regional demand. Near-term prices are expected to remain firm, with increased domestic cultivation identified as the primary lever for stabilising supply.
• In the United States, Farm Bill 2.0 discussions in Washington are centering on trade, nutrition, and economic support measures for the groundnut sector. Rising production costs and projected financial losses for the 2026 crop year are driving calls for support frameworks that go beyond the existing 2026 Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, with planting acreage adjustments and revised market strategies expected to influence global sourcing dynamics.
• India's cashew processing hub of Pulasa is facing disruption from the West Asian conflict, with its daily capacity of approximately 500 tons underutilised due to halted exports and restricted raw nut supplies. Short-term government intervention and local market adjustments are being considered to maintain operational continuity.
• Mozambique's cashew industry more than doubled in export value in 2025, underpinned by scaled production capabilities. A government initiative targeting 689,000 tons of annual production by 2034 signals a long-term commitment to expanding domestic processing and improving value retention.
• Vietnam's cashew exports showed mild growth in early 2026, with the United States emerging as a notably larger buyer. Diversification of export markets has reduced reliance on traditional buyers, though investment in quality and raw material procurement remains critical to achieving the country's 800,000 ton export target amid intensifying competition from rival origins.

• India's cashew market is under strain from two converging pressures: weak kernel demand and a rupee at a historic low against the U.S. dollar, which is elevating the cost of imported raw cashew nuts. Import prices from Tanzania stand at USD 1.91 per kilogram, while Mozambique supplies are priced between USD 1.60 and 1.62 per kilogram. International raw cashew nut offers remain elevated, exceeding USD 1,500 per metric ton. Some price relief emerged in early April following new shipments from Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Cambodia. February 2026 exports reached nearly 2,700 metric tons, with traders looking to demand signals from China and the Middle East to provide clearer direction on the market's near-term trajectory.
• Vietnam's cashew processing sector is contending with declining kernel quality despite easing prices. The persistent gap between high raw cashew nut input costs and lower processed kernel values is shaping buyer behavior, with roasters and processors gravitating toward premium grades (W3 and W240) even at higher bid levels. The subpar quality of early West African imports has further constrained high-grade kernel availability, keeping the market steady but cautious.
• Following market access for exporters from March 25, 2026, a tight procurement window resulted in local processors securing between 530,000 and 550,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts. Harvests are progressing, though on-farm stockholding has diminished as farmers, facing urgent cash needs, are selling immediately after collection. Yields are below last year's levels. Wholesale prices are ranging between USD 0.72 and 0.75 per kilogram, with factory gate prices between USD 0.82 and 0.87 per kilogram, reflecting active competition among processors.
• The April influx of raw cashew nuts from West Africa and Cambodia initially pushed prices lower, but persistently high international raw material costs above USD 1,500 per metric ton have maintained an unfavorable spread between input costs and kernel values. Quality issues in Vietnam and weak kernel demand in India are reinforcing careful purchasing strategies across the supply chain. The market's next directional move will hinge largely on whether demand from China and the Middle East strengthens sufficiently to rebalance kernel pricing.

• This week's nuts market report covers two distinct developments: a regionally significant expansion in groundnut cultivation in Bangladesh, and a broadly stable but quietly shifting global almond trade picture.
• In Narsinghdi, Bangladesh, groundnut farming along the Meghna River is expanding meaningfully, driven by low input costs, minimal fertilizer and pesticide requirements, and attractive profit margins. Previously fallow char lands are being brought into productive use, with the Department of Agricultural Extension providing ongoing support for sustainable scaling and pest management. Beyond output, the sector is generating tangible community benefits, including seasonal employment in processing and sorting activities, with notable participation from women. Weather-related risk remains a consideration, but the overall trajectory is positive. The development is primarily regional in scope and does not materially affect national-level agricultural statistics.
• On the global almond market, the 2025/26 season is projecting modest output stability with a marginal overall increase. The United States, as the dominant producer, is reporting slight growth, while Australia is seeing a production decline. Turkey and China are posting stronger relative growth rates, though their absolute contribution to global supply remains limited. On the trade side, Spain's almond exports have declined, pointing to softening European demand. Whether this reflects a structural reduction in consumption or a shift in sourcing strategy away from European channels is not yet clear. U.S. shipment patterns to Europe will be a key indicator to monitor in the coming months. Broadly, the almond market is in a state of equilibrium, with modest trade flow adjustments underway rather than any significant supply or demand dislocation.

• A key development comes from Bangladesh, where farmers in Sunamganj are expanding groundnut cultivation beyond initial targets because of stronger profitability and steady local demand. Groundnuts are gaining appeal as an alternative to crops like rice, largely because of lower input costs and better margins. Even so, the outlook remains dependent on favorable rainfall and improved advisory support from agricultural agencies, which are still limited.
• Cashews are another major focus, particularly in West Africa and Southeast Asia. In Togo, authorities are tightening sector rules by lowering the 2026 farm gate price and imposing an early-season moratorium to reduce speculation, stabilize the market, and strengthen the domestic value chain. In Ghana, industry advocates are calling for stronger policy enforcement, greater transparency, and more direct farmer involvement in decision-making to help the cashew economy deliver more sustainable regional benefits. Cambodia’s cashew sector, meanwhile, is becoming more closely integrated with Vietnam through improved varieties, farming techniques, and a standing commitment from Vietnamese buyers to absorb Cambodia’s production.
• The episode also highlights strategic developments in pistachios. South Africa is positioning itself as a future global supplier, targeting meaningful market share through long-term investment in the Karoo region. The effort depends on patient capital and the ability to manage the slow maturation cycle of pistachio trees before commercial scale can be reached. Vietnam, although it does not produce pistachios domestically, is playing an influential role as a processing and re-export hub, especially for shipments moving onward to China. That model allows it to add value within the supply chain while benefiting from tariff and trade advantages.

• Global cashew production is projected to grow by 3 percent in the current season, reaching 5.53 million metric tons. The Northern Hemisphere is expected to contribute 4.57 million tons (a 2 percent increase), while the Southern Hemisphere will add 901,000 tons (a 7 percent increase). Tanzania stands out with a forecasted 17 percent jump in output to 700,000 tons, exceeding expectations set by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council.
• Increased cashew output is also evident in Cambodia, India, Cote D'Ivoire, and Nigeria, with respective gains of 6.3 percent, 17.9 percent, 4.2 percent, and 6.4 percent. This growth is driven largely by robust demand from China, the European Union, and the Middle East. The EU has notably increased its procurement of African cashew kernels. Conversely, Vietnam, Ghana, and Togo are experiencing production declines of 11.8 percent, 18.2 percent, and 33.3 percent respectively. The U.S. market is seeing weaker demand due to elevated costs and tariffs, prompting Vietnam to shift its export focus to China.
• India's domestic processing market continues to expand, with cashew processing demand expected to reach 4 million metric tons by 2045. Price variations among cashew types are notable, reflecting shifting global preferences and market segmentation. Meanwhile, Vietnam has signed a new cultivation agreement with Cuba, covering cashew and short-cycle crops on 2,000 hectares, strengthening bilateral trade and agricultural investment ties.
• In Goa, the cashew feni industry is leveraging geographical indication tags to protect and enhance its market position amid challenges such as aging orchards, climate variability, and import competition. Vietnam’s cashew export volume has increased 4 percent, while export value surged 19.5 percent in the first eleven months of 2025, fueled by a 14.9 percent rise in average export prices. Exports to China and The Netherlands have grown, but shipments to the United States have declined.
• Separately, Iran has achieved EU certification for its pistachios, boosting its credibility and competitiveness in European markets. With annual pistachio exports totaling 100,000 tons, this certification is expected to strengthen Iran’s role as a leading supplier in the region.

• In Kosven Province, authorities intercepted approximately 20 tons of smuggled pistachios en route to European markets. The operation, linked to organized trade networks, uncovered significant economic implications, with the pistachios valued at an estimated BRL192 billion. Authorities are urging public vigilance to curb commodity smuggling and protect economic stability.
• In Canada, health officials issued a national alert regarding potential salmonella contamination in Iranian pistachios and related products. Consumers are advised to check product origins and adhere to food safety guidelines due to the long shelf life of pistachios. The advisory underscores the importance of sustained caution and regulatory oversight in international nut trade.
• Chile has seen notable growth in walnut exports between March and October 2025. In-shell walnut shipments rose by 29%, and shelled walnut exports jumped 35% year-over-year in October. Although exports to India declined by 11%, demand surged in the Middle East and Africa, with European imports up 33%. Particularly, demand for shelled walnuts in Europe increased by 54%, led by the Netherlands and Germany. In contrast, exports to Spain and broader American regions declined, indicating evolving regional preferences and market realignments.

• Vietnam's cashew sector continues to expand, driven by robust demand from China, the United States, and India. Between January and late 2025, Chinese imports of Vietnamese cashew kernels rose 37.4 percent in volume and 54.1 percent in value, setting Vietnam on course to exceed $5 billion in exports by year-end. However, increased reliance on African raw cashew imports, which have reached a three-year high, is pressuring processors’ profit margins due to elevated input costs. Some processors are halting operations under financial strain.
• In Iran, pistachio production in regions such as Zurandieh, Markazi, has plummeted by 50 percent this year, driven by unfavorable weather and persistent export sanctions. The resulting decline in both quality and export potential has sparked calls for government support and investment in agricultural technologies. Further compounding the issue, Canada has issued a large recall of Iranian pistachios due to salmonella contamination, affecting over 130 products and prompting stricter import safety protocols.
• India's nut imports, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios, are projected to rise by 7 percent, spurred by growing health awareness and a large consumer base. Almond demand remains particularly steady. Meanwhile, Turkey's hazelnut output is forecast to drop by 36 percent in the 2025–2026 season due to adverse weather, adding strain to global supply. In contrast, Chile and the United States are expected to increase nut production, contributing to a shifting global trade landscape and influencing pricing structures across the sector.

• In October 2025, U.S. walnut shipments rose significantly to £158 million, an 8.94 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This growth was primarily fueled by a surge in export demand, which reached £120 million, while domestic shipments saw a modest 2 percent rise to £38 million. Since the start of the season, total shipments have reached £421 million, up 10 percent from the previous year.
• The European market remained a key importer with a 5 percent volume increase to £102 million, while Middle East imports declined slightly by 0.7 percent to £3 million. By the end of October, sales commitments climbed to £467 million, an 11 percent year-over-year increase, supported by a 15 percent monthly rise in new sales.
• Crop receipts for October stood at 1.123 billion pounds, reflecting a stable harvest trend compared to the previous year's £1 billion. Market sentiment remains positive, driven by robust export growth and successful penetration into new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand from countries like Thailand has strengthened.
• Despite this optimism, stakeholders are monitoring potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and input cost volatility that could affect pricing strategies. U.S. walnut exports are making notable inroads into emerging markets, offsetting slowdowns in traditional regions. Continued focus on these new opportunities is seen as essential for sustaining global competitiveness.
• Overall, the walnut market presents a narrative of strong export-driven expansion with cautious strategic planning to manage supply chain and logistic challenges.

• From January to August 2025, Azerbaijan's cashew imports surged by 28 percent in volume and 57 percent in value, totaling 282 tons worth $2.3 million. Vietnam dominated supply, contributing 229 tons valued at $1.9 million, while India’s exports to Azerbaijan declined by 44 percent in value. New trade links with Benin and Ghana have emerged, marking a significant shift after 14 years of absence from Azerbaijan’s supplier list.
• Vietnam, a top global cashew kernel exporter, continues to face operational pressures. Despite importing nearly $4 billion worth of raw cashews—much from Cambodia—to manage raw material costs, rising input prices and a shift in processing activity toward Africa threaten efficiency and raise the risk of operational losses and factory closures without strategic adjustments.
• In Ghana, the cashew sector shows strong growth potential, with revenue projections exceeding $660 million annually through enhanced regulation and infrastructure. The Tree Crops Development Authority is working to stabilize prices, increase local processing, and reduce raw exports, currently valued at about $300 million, with an ambition to match regional leaders like Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.
• Tanzania is poised for a record cashew harvest of 700,000 tons, up from 528,000 tons the previous year. Over 45 companies will engage in transparent, quality-assured online auctions. Most of Tanzania’s raw cashews are exported for processing in Vietnam and India, forming a vital part of the country's agricultural exports.
• In Iran, Kermanshah province expects a 2025 pistachio yield of around 250 tons. The region is expanding cultivation, focusing on water-efficient varieties such as Akhburi and Ahmad Agay, aligning with sustainability goals and regional development plans.
• Kenya has announced a temporary halt to macadamia trading from December 1, 2025, to February 15, 2026, aiming to protect crop maturity and uphold export quality. Meanwhile, Georgia’s hazelnut sector is under threat from pests and disease, potentially losing up to 30 percent of the crop. Investment in research and pest control is critical to preserving industry viability.

• In Nigeria, Kogi State is pursuing a bold plan to raise cashew production to 150,000 metric tons by 2027. This effort is led by the state’s Commodity Exchange Export Promotion and Marketing Development Agency (COSIPA) and includes the replacement of old trees with 15 million hybrid cashew trees over three years. These hybrids are known for high kernel recovery and will be sun-dried locally to meet international quality standards. The program includes financial support, training, and market access for farmers, with the goal of boosting employment and export revenue. Additionally, talks with Vietnamese investors are underway to establish processing facilities in Kogi, opening direct export channels to markets such as the United States, Germany, Japan, and the UAE.
• Ghana’s cashew sector also shows high potential, with the capacity to contribute over $660 million annually to the national economy if regulatory and processing improvements are implemented. The sector supports around 500,000 jobs but currently faces issues including under-regulation, price instability, and limited value-added processing. The Tree Crops Development Authority is addressing these gaps through new licensing systems and infrastructure expansion.
• Vietnam remains a global leader in cashew processing, importing over $4 billion worth of raw nuts in the first ten months of 2024. The country sources up to 90% of its supply from countries like Cambodia and several West African nations. Despite rising input costs that are squeezing margins, Vietnam is working to strengthen its national cashew brand by promoting domestic cultivation and adopting more advanced processing techniques.
• A recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and Vietnam reflects a significant step in bilateral cooperation. The agreement focuses on technology transfer and deeper trade integration, aligning Nigeria’s raw output with Vietnam’s processing strengths to benefit both economies. Meanwhile, global supply disruptions, particularly in Tanzania, are straining availability and driving prices higher. Political instability in the region has disrupted exports, creating challenges for major processors in India and Vietnam, who are now paying premiums to source from more stable suppliers like Cambodia.

Key Discussion Themes:

• Rapid Growth in Raw Cashew Production
  • Côte d’Ivoire's cashew output has tripled since 2011, reaching 1.2 million metric tons by 2023
  • Cashews have become the country's second-largest agricultural export after cocoa
  • The industry supports over 250,000 smallholder farmers, primarily in the north
• The Value-Addition Gap
  • Despite increased production, less than 10% of cashews were processed locally as of early 2020s
  • Government goals aimed to raise local processing to 50% by 2025 through subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment
• Two-Phase Industry Crisis (2020–2023)
  • Phase 1: Global buyers from Asia outbid local processors, acquiring over 80% of raw output
  • Phase 2: A downturn in global demand led to falling prices, market oversupply, and factory shutdowns
  • Result: At least eight major local processors went bankrupt, with thousands of job losses
• Structural and Competitive Disadvantages
  • Local processors face financing constraints, higher operational costs, and raw material shortages
  • Competing with well-capitalized, efficient processors in Vietnam and India remains a major hurdle
  • Government subsidies and support have not closed the competitive gap
• Socioeconomic Impact
  • Sharp job losses, especially affecting low-income workers in northern regions
  • Farmers face price instability and market exclusion
  • Declining tax revenues and missed industrial development opportunities for the state
• Global Market Dynamics
  • Raw cashew exports continue to flow heavily toward Asia for processing
  • Vietnam remains the dominant global processor, capturing the bulk of value-added exports
  • The current imbalance entrenches Africa’s role as a raw supplier in global agri-trade
• Forward-Looking Strategies and Policy Considerations
  • Urgent need for sustainable processing infrastructure and supply chain integration in Côte d’Ivoire
  • Potential for foreign direct investment, fairer trade terms, and international development support
  • Consideration of broader trade reforms, export credit guarantees, and consumer-driven sourcing changes

Key Discussion Points:

• Cashew Ubiquity and Market Relevance
  • Cashews as a high-demand input in snacks, dairy alternatives, and culinary products
  • Expanding use across food sectors from plant-based milks to premium processed goods
• Geopolitical Pressures on Freight & Trade Routes
  • Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Gaza crisis on maritime logistics
  • Rerouting of vessels away from the Suez Canal, increasing lead times and costs
• Logistical Bottlenecks and Infrastructure Deficiencies
  • Chronic congestion at Nigerian and Vietnamese ports
  • Persistent global container shortages and port inefficiencies post-COVID
• Volatile Contract Enforcement and Supply Reliability
  • Increasing breach of raw nut contracts in West Africa due to price volatility
  • Financial implications for processors reliant on just-in-time supply models
• Climate Variability and Agricultural Impact
  • Erratic weather patterns reducing yield quality and timing in key producing regions
  • Compound risks posed by nature in already stressed global systems
• Market Implications and Retail Consequences
  • Rising input costs and product shortages affecting downstream availability
  • Potential long-term consumer substitution toward more stable alternatives
• Strategic Responses from Industry Stakeholders
  • Vietnam’s efforts in supply diversification, backward integration, and contract enforcement
  • African nations’ push for local processing amid regulatory reform
  • Investment in resilient infrastructure and supply chain transparency
• Broader Implications for Global Agri-Trade
  • Lessons for other crops with similarly fragile value chains
  • Why cashews are a microcosm of larger global economic vulnerabilities

Conclusion: