• Colombia's coffee market continues to operate under the close oversight of the Colombian Coffee Federation, which sets base prices tied to global benchmarks. Internal reference prices for 125 kilograms of dry parchment coffee show notable quality-based disparity, with Excelso priced at COP 943,720 and Pasilla at COP 372,000. Cooperative structures play a central role in cost management, with quality control mechanisms adjusting pricing based on defect levels.
• Brazil is projected to increase total coffee production to 65,510,000 bags in the 2025/26 marketing year. However, a strong real continues to weigh on export competitiveness. Dry conditions in Minas Gerais threaten a 13.6% decline in Arabica yields, though Robusta output is expected to expand by 7.3% to 24,700,000 bags, reflecting a broader strategic shift toward the more resilient variety.
• Honduras anticipates a 5.1% increase in production to 5,800,000 bags by 2025/26, offering a positive counterpoint to regional supply pressures.
• Vietnam is facing a significant 20% production decline driven by adverse weather, resulting in reduced export volumes and a reshaping of regional Robusta supply dynamics.
• At the global level, the USDA notes an overall rise in production, led largely by Robusta growth, while inventory levels are trending upward. Despite this, the sector faces ongoing complexity from demand fluctuations and shifting import tariff regimes, factors that continue to influence trade flows and pricing across major consuming markets.

• Vietnam has recorded a 15.8% year-on-year rise in coffee exports from January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to grow 6%, marking a four-year peak, with full-year export projections around 24,600,000 bags. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands rose by VND 1,000 to VND 100,100 per kilogram, tracking upward movements on the London Robusta Exchange. Despite its dominant position in Robusta volumes, Vietnam continues to face a quality and value gap relative to international benchmarks.
• Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 75,300,000 to 75,900,000 bags, a potential record. The incoming harvest is expected to push the global coffee surplus from 1,800,000 bags in 2025 to approximately 10,000,000 bags in 2026, a substantial shift in the supply balance. A stronger Brazilian real may provide some short-term support to internal prices and influence export timing strategies, but the broader directional pressure from expanded supply is clearly bearish for global benchmarks.
• In Ivory Coast, field trials of six new Robusta varieties, developed through collaboration between the Nestle Institute of Agricultural Sciences and CNRA, have demonstrated yield improvements of up to 86% alongside gains in drought resistance and bean quality. These results remain at the trial stage and have not yet influenced commercial Robusta supply chains.
• Colombia posted a 26% decline in washed Arabica production during the first seven months of the 2025/26 season, tightening global Arabica availability and supporting price underpinning for that segment. The shortfall is amplifying concerns about near-term supply adequacy, particularly given simultaneous logistical pressures arising from geopolitical tensions.
• Ethiopia's coffee exporters are under margin pressure as global Arabica prices decline against a backdrop of elevated local procurement costs. The government's export revenue targets are increasingly difficult to meet under current conditions, with EU deforestation compliance requirements adding a further cost layer to the sector.

• Brazil's coffee sector is working with the Ministry of Labor and Employment to strengthen legal and commercial security for exporters, in response to concerns among US importers over labor violations across producing regions. These concerns have been amplified by US Customs and Border Protection withhold release orders and ongoing Section 301 investigations. Labor inspections indicate that human rights violations occur in approximately 1% of cases, suggesting isolated rather than systemic issues. The Coffee Exporters Council is proactively providing compliance documentation to mitigate trade friction in both US and EU markets. Looking ahead, the EU's planned ban on products made with forced labor, effective December 2027, places additional pressure on Brazilian exporters to demonstrate and document ethical supply chain practices.
• Vietnam recorded a 14% increase in coffee exports in 2026, reinforcing its position as a dominant global supplier. Domestic challenges persist, however, including inventory pressures and drought conditions that threaten future output. Vietnam's robusta segment is under heightened international scrutiny, shaped by Brazil's market dynamics and geopolitical disruptions including the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is contributing to short term volatility in coffee futures.
• Ethiopia and other East African producers are facing growing pressure under the Coffee Canopy Partnership, which uses satellite imagery to track deforestation linked to coffee cultivation. The EU's deforestation regulations pose a material risk of export restrictions for countries unable to demonstrate sustainable land use practices, compelling producers to improve transparency and adjust farming methods to preserve access to European markets.

• Brazil is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, with Marex Group and Stonex projecting output of between 75,000,000 and 75,900,000 bags, representing approximately 15.5% year-on-year growth. CONAB, Brazil's national crop agency, offers a more conservative estimate of 66,200,000 bags but still characterizes it as a record season. The growth is driven primarily by Arabica production, projected to increase by 23.2%. Despite this strong production outlook, export performance has weakened notably, with volumes falling 27% in February and 31% in March year on year, a decline attributed largely to currency appreciation dampening seller incentives.
• Vietnam's robusta sector continues to expand, with first quarter 2026 exports rising 14% year on year to 585,000 metric tons. The 2025/26 production forecast stands at a four-year high of 1,760,000 metric tons (approximately 30,800,000 bags). This sustained output growth is exerting consistent downward pressure on global robusta prices. Logistical disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz are inflating freight and insurance costs, adding an operational layer of complexity to Vietnam's export operations.
• Arabica coffee futures are exhibiting a persistent bearish trend, with the May 2026 contract falling below key moving averages. Critical support is positioned near 288.65 cents per pound, with further declines potentially targeting a range of 265 to 268 cents. Rising Arabica inventory levels are eroding scarcity premiums and reinforcing a cautiously bearish medium-term pricing structure. Globally, Rabobank estimates total coffee production for 2026/27 at approximately 180,000,000 bags, an increase from prior years. Global exports show a modest downturn, and market dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay of strong supply forecasts, inventory accumulation, and logistical cost pressures. Currency fluctuations and producer selling behavior in Brazil remain key variables for short-term price volatility.

• The global coffee market is contending with an emerging oversupply dynamic, as record production forecasts from Brazil and continued export strength from Vietnam push inventory levels higher against a backdrop of only gradually rising demand.
• Brazil's 2026/27 season production forecast has reached 75,900,000 bags, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, with Arabica output alone projected to rise 23.2%. Despite this exceptional production outlook, Brazilian export volumes in February declined 27% year-on-year to 2,300,000 bags, a result of a stronger Brazilian real and reduced shipment activity. This points to a temporary tightening in Brazilian coffee availability on international markets rather than any structural supply constraint. Domestically, Brazilian producers are increasingly adopting precision irrigation techniques to manage irregular climatic conditions during critical fruiting stages, a long-term yield stabilization strategy rather than a near-term output accelerator.
• Vietnam continues to post strong results in Robusta production and trade. Coffee exports grew 17.5% year-on-year in 2025 to 1,580,000 metric tons, with further growth anticipated in the 2025/26 season. Price volatility in the Central Highlands has been partially offset by recent recoveries. Beyond volume, Vietnam is actively pursuing quality differentiation through initiatives aimed at establishing distinct standards for Vietnamese Robusta, signaling a strategic shift toward value-focused positioning in global markets.
• At the global level, the combination of Brazilian and Vietnamese supply growth is contributing to a meaningful oversupply condition. ICE futures pricing for Arabica reflects ongoing fluctuations driven by currency movements and logistical disruptions, including those stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which are providing intermittent and temporary price support. However, these factors are set against record global production and inventory levels, sustaining a broadly bearish market outlook. Both leading producers are increasingly directing investment toward advanced agricultural technology and quality enhancement, indicating a wider industry transition from volume-driven growth toward more sustainable, value-oriented strategies.

• Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm robusta futures in London are reinforcing this strength, suggesting that supply concerns in the physical market remain a key source of support.
• The episode also highlights strong export momentum. Coffee exports in January and February 2026 were up 14 percent year over year, supported by solid robusta production. That resilience stands in contrast to arabica futures in New York, which have weakened as the market reacts to more comfortable supply expectations. The result is a market where robusta remains relatively firm while arabica is under more pressure.
• Brazil is presented as a major driver of the arabica outlook. Although softer arabica prices could weigh on near-term shipment revenue, Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected to reach record levels, with gains in both arabica and conilon production. The report notes that reduced green coffee exports and shifting tariff conditions for soluble coffee exports to the United States could affect short-term trade dynamics, but overall production and export capacity still point to a strong underlying performance. Brazil’s soluble coffee sector is also showing resilience through higher February exports and stronger domestic consumption.
• Overall, the episode presents a coffee market defined by imbalance between its two major varieties. Robusta is benefiting from tight supplies and sustained demand, especially in Vietnam and other key producers, while arabica is contending with heavier production forecasts and growing stock levels, particularly in Brazil. 

• In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with robusta output for 2025–26 revised upward to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 6 percent increase and a four-year high. This growth aligns with a 39 percent surge in November exports and a 14.8 percent year-to-date export increase. The rise in supply is exerting downward pressure on global robusta prices.
• Regulatory developments have also influenced market sentiment. The European Union’s decision to delay its deforestation regulation has temporarily eased compliance pressures for South American and Southeast Asian exporters, supporting ongoing supply flows and contributing to a more bearish market outlook.
• On a global scale, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in total coffee production for 2025–26, reaching 178.68 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9 percent. However, global exports have dipped slightly by 0.3 percent year over year, indicating a disconnect between production growth and trade activity. Currency fluctuations, especially involving the Brazilian real, add further complexity to export incentives and pricing strategies.

• Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.
• Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current season estimates have been revised downward to 55.2 million bags due to rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais, potentially affecting arabica cherry and flowering development. Nevertheless, the rollback of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s delay of its deforestation regulation are expected to improve export competitiveness and market stability.
• Arabica prices remain under limited support. Although tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil offered temporary price stabilization, they were insufficient to counterbalance rising supply expectations from both Vietnam and Brazil. The deferral of EU environmental trade regulations also helped maintain robusta flow from Southeast Asia, preventing major disruptions in global supply.
• The broader coffee market continues to experience bearish sentiment, with robust supply forecasts outweighing demand recovery. Regulatory shifts, weather volatility, and evolving export policies remain key factors influencing the current and future landscape of coffee trade.

• Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustain export value.
• Vietnam’s Robusta sector is also gaining momentum, with a projected 6 percent production increase pushing output to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. While weather has been largely favorable, heavy rains in key areas like Dak Lak have caused harvest delays that could create short-term supply challenges.
• On the global front, coffee markets are sending mixed signals. The temporary postponement of the European Union’s deforestation regulation has eased pressure on exporters, while a slight 0.3 percent dip in global coffee exports signals continued tight supply conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in global coffee production and a nearly 5 percent rise in ending stocks for the 2025–2026 season, suggesting some future supply relief.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures have shown price volatility influenced by tariff changes and production forecasts. March 2026 futures reflect a market caught between easing short-term concerns and expectations of higher future output. Technical indicators suggest the market remains volatile but constrained within defined price ranges, requiring careful navigation of both immediate and long-term trends.

• In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta exports rising 13.4 percent year to date, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025–2026 season is forecasted to increase by 6 percent, potentially reaching a 10 percent gain with favorable weather, which could ease global supply constraints and further moderate prices.
• In the United States, tariff policy continues to shape market dynamics. While a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on various commodities has been lifted, the 40 percent national security tariff on Brazilian coffee remains in place, restricting imports and influencing futures pricing. A change in this policy could significantly alter trade flows.
• Colombia, by contrast, has benefited from recent tariff changes. The removal of reciprocal tariffs on Colombian coffee has boosted its competitive edge, supporting a three-decade high in output at 14.8 million bags, up 17 percent year over year. This has strengthened Colombia's market share in the United States and globally.
• Despite current inventory tightness, the global coffee market is expected to stabilize. A 2.5 percent rise in overall production for the 2025–2026 season, alongside increasing stock levels, may counterbalance short-term supply limitations and help moderate speculative price volatility.

• In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S. domestic prices by limiting imports.
• Vietnam is also poised for expansion, with coffee exports growing 13.4 percent year over year from January to October, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Looking ahead, the country’s 2025–2026 output is expected to grow by 6 to 10 percent, contingent on continued favorable conditions. This projected growth in Robusta supply could increase global downward pricing pressure.
• In the United States, the market remains sensitive to regulatory shifts. Speculation about cutting tariffs on Brazilian coffee has drawn attention, as U.S. supply chains rely heavily on Brazil. Any tariff changes would significantly affect pricing and inventory strategies, especially with ongoing constraints in Brazilian exports already impacting stock levels.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle, driven by increased Robusta production in both Brazil and Vietnam. While Arabica output is expected to dip slightly, overall supply will rise. However, this outlook faces risks from climate volatility tied to La Niña and from trade uncertainties in major markets such as the United States, which could disrupt pricing stability and export strategies.

• Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens the 2026-2027 crop, as insufficient rainfall disrupts flowering and fruit set. The likelihood of a La Niña event, now elevated by NOAA forecasts, could further intensify the dry conditions. As a result, Brazil’s national food supply agency has revised its 2025 Arabica production forecast down to 35.2 million bags from an earlier estimate of 37 million.
• In addition to weather setbacks, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States have been hit by steep tariffs, contributing to declining inventories in intercontinental exchange warehouses. Speculation around a potential easing of these tariffs could provide some market relief if implemented.
• Vietnam’s Robusta coffee sector is under threat from Typhoon Kalmeghi, which endangers southern production zones. Despite this, exports have risen 10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 million metric tons in 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projects a 6% increase in 2025-2026 output, potentially reaching 1.76 million metric tons, the highest in four years, assuming no further severe weather disruptions. Vietnam's expanding production continues to influence global Robusta prices.
• Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture anticipates a 2.5% increase in total coffee output for the current cycle, with production reaching a record 178.68 million bags. While Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7%, Robusta production is forecasted to grow by 7.9%, potentially balancing overall supply. Global ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9%, suggesting a relatively stable supply outlook, contingent on weather and trade policy developments.

• In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on specialty coffee has slashed exports in this segment by 70%, pushing producers like Fazenda Komotzium to seek alternative markets. Domestically, coffee consumption dropped 24% following a 70% price hike since 2023, reflecting economic strain and changing consumer behavior. Looking ahead, uncertain rainfall threatens Arabica yields, though Robusta production is expected to remain strong due to improved agricultural practices.
• Vietnam continues its rapid ascent in the coffee sector, with a 61.4% year-on-year rise in export revenues totaling $6.98 billion from 1.23 million tons of mostly Robusta beans. Production forecasts for 2025–2026 have been raised by 10%, and high-value processed coffee exports have jumped 63.5%. The EU remains Vietnam’s primary buyer, accounting for over 63% of its exports. While Vietnam is gaining global prominence, it still faces challenges in quality standardization and establishing internationally recognized brands.
• Globally, the coffee market is grappling with geopolitical disruptions and climate concerns, potentially intensified by La Niña effects. Coffee exports grew marginally by 0.2%, but certified Arabica stocks have dropped to their lowest levels in 18 months. Brazil and Vietnam remain central to global supply stability, even as policy changes and environmental volatility shape market dynamics.
• Colombia is also showing signs of output growth, presenting future export potential. However, trade accessibility remains a concern due to fluctuating international policies.

• In Brazil, concerns persist over insufficient rainfall in key Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais. Although rain is forecasted, current precipitation levels remain below seasonal norms, raising doubts about optimal flowering and bean development. Concurrently, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States seek to resolve tariff disputes that have negatively impacted Brazilian coffee exports and contributed to reduced shipment volumes and ICE-monitored stock levels.
• Despite a modest year-over-year production increase forecasted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, structural supply issues are keeping the Arabica market tight. In contrast, Vietnam is experiencing strong Robusta production, with a 6% increase projected—marking a four-year high. Favorable weather in regions such as Dok Lakh and the Central Highlands has boosted yields and export volumes, contributing to a bearish market sentiment for Robusta prices.
• This divergence is shaping global market dynamics. The Robusta sector faces downward price pressures from Vietnam’s production surge, while Arabica prices are rising due to persistent deficits and adverse weather conditions. Although global coffee exports remain stable, offering short-term supply relief, the enduring Arabica shortfall continues to weigh on market confidence.

• In Brazil, initial optimism driven by forecasts of heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais led to expectations of higher yields and a temporary drop in Arabica prices. However, a sudden shift occurred following the United States’ imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, which reduced shipments and tightened iced coffee inventories. This policy shift contributed to upward pressure on prices amid growing concerns about supply constraints. Conab's revised estimates forecast a 4.9% reduction in the 2025 Arabica harvest to 35.2 million bags and a 0.9% drop in total coffee production to 55.2 million bags. Additionally, La Niña-related drought risks are casting uncertainty over the 2026–2027 crop outlook.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector is experiencing robust growth. Robusta production for 2025–2026 is expected to rise by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking the highest output in four years. This increased supply is likely to place downward pressure on Robusta prices. Vietnam's coffee exports also grew by 10.9% from January to September 2025, further influencing global pricing trends.
• According to the USDA, global coffee production for 2025–2026 is projected to increase by 2.5%, reaching a record 178.68 million bags. This includes a 7.9% increase in Robusta output, although Arabica production is expected to decline. Despite ample overall supply, Volcafe has flagged a looming Arabica deficit, highlighting divergent trends between the two main coffee varieties.

• In Brazil, the depreciation of the real has made coffee exports more globally competitive, contributing to a decline in international coffee prices. Favorable rains in Minas Gerais have supported the flowering of Arabica trees, improving outlooks. However, ongoing harvest pressures and reduced export projections from Brazil, reported by Kanab, are weighing down market sentiment. Looking ahead, concerns are mounting over a potential La Niña event, which could bring dry conditions and threaten future yields.
• Vietnam is experiencing a robust production year, with Robusta output projected to rise by 6 percent to a four-year high, driven by favorable weather. This increase is matched by a 7.8 percent rise in exports, reinforcing Vietnam’s status as a global Robusta leader. However, Typhoon Hualoy has introduced fresh challenges, with flooding restricting farm access and potentially disrupting the supply chain if conditions persist.
• In the United States, tight supplies of both Arabica and Robusta have followed the imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports. This has sharply reduced iced coffee inventories and led to price drops, with Arabica at a 1.5-year low and Robusta at a 2.25-month low, illustrating how trade barriers are reshaping market dynamics.
• Globally, the USDA projects a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase in coffee production for the 2025 Tristosnik season, largely driven by a 7.9 percent boost in Robusta output. Yet, despite high ending stock expectations, Volcafe forecasts an Arabica deficit for the fifth consecutive year.

• In Brazil, regenerative coffee farming practices are gaining momentum, led by companies like Ilsa Brazil. Techniques such as the use of cover crops and organic fertilizers are improving soil health and mitigating climate challenges. These methods have become particularly relevant amid fluctuating market conditions and shifting rainfall patterns in key regions like Minas Gerais, where recent rain temporarily eased dry spells and caused a dip in Arabica prices. However, Brazil’s exports continue to face headwinds due to a 50% U.S. tariff, which has contributed to a drop in Arabica inventories to their lowest point in 18 months. Innovations such as drip irrigation are showing yield improvements, demonstrating adaptive capacity among producers.
• Vietnam, the leading Robusta producer, expects a 6% increase in output for the 2025–26 season, reaching 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable weather. Export performance has also been strong, with a 7.8% increase in shipments between January and August 2025. Notably, exports to the European Union surged following the EVFTA, growing from USD 64 million to USD 466 million over five years.
• China’s coffee export landscape has been mixed in 2025. While July saw a decline, total exports through the first seven months reached USD 230 million, even with a 23.8% drop in volume. On the import side, China’s demand is surging, with a 46% year-on-year increase in coffee imports, largely driven by Brazilian supply. The state of Santa Catarina is emerging as a hub for specialty coffee, fueled by family-owned farms and research-backed development, including Arabica cultivar trials supported by the International Finance Corporation.

• In August, Brazilian coffee exports reached 3.1 million bags, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year decline but a 14.3% increase from July. Despite reduced exports, internal conditions improved for producers. A favorable exchange rate lowered fertilizer costs by 29% compared to the previous year, and dry weather accelerated harvesting. However, frost risks in the Cerrado Mineiro region could impact the 2026 crop, with potential losses estimated at 412,000 bags.
• A new 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee imports began in August, creating significant disruption. U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee dropped 46% year over year. In response, American importers began using bonded warehouses to delay tariff payments, signaling a strategic adjustment that may reshape long-term trade patterns.
• Meanwhile, coffee prices surged due to reduced global inventories and lower export volumes. New York certified stockpiles dropped by 157,000 bags, further tightening supply. Despite the tariff, the United States remains the second-largest importer of Brazilian coffee, underlining its continued importance in the global market.
• The episode also discusses the biological basis of coffee yields, emphasizing the importance of floral differentiation, which is influenced by factors like rainfall, temperature, and plant nutrition. Best practices, such as leaf health preservation through fungicides, composting, and biostimulants, are highlighted as key to supporting flowering and fruit setting stages that determine yield and quality.

• Seedling selection and care are highlighted as critical factors for high-yielding, healthy coffee crops. Fernando Villoso emphasizes that optimal outcomes depend on choosing quality seedlings, typically derived from seeds or clonal cuttings of high-performing Arabica varieties. These seedlings are nurtured in well-drained, nutrient-rich nurseries.
• During the nursery stage, proper shading, pest control, and irrigation are essential to support vigorous development and reduce losses. Once ready for planting, robust seedlings contribute directly to the establishment of productive and sustainable coffee plantations. Detailed attention during these early phases is essential, as it directly affects the future performance of the crop.
• The discussion underscores the strategic importance of early investment in seedling quality and nursery practices for long-term plantation success.

This episode centers on the foundational role of seedlings in determining the success and productivity of coffee plantations. 

• The discussion emphasizes best practices for seedling selection and nursery management, particularly for Arabica coffee.
• High-quality coffee production begins with choosing the right seedling, whether from seeds or clonal cuttings. These seedlings are cultivated in nutrient-rich, well-drained nurseries that provide optimal shade, water regulation, and pest control. Such conditions are critical for maximizing growth and minimizing losses during the early stages.
• Healthy, well-managed seedlings serve as the cornerstone for productive, sustainable coffee plantations. Proper nursery practices, including attentive care and environmental management, are crucial for developing robust plants that will thrive in the field. The episode underscores that meticulous early-stage management significantly influences the long-term success of coffee cultivation.

• Brazil’s coffee market is navigating both favorable and challenging developments. Recent rainfall has eased drought fears, prompting profit-taking after August’s price rally. However, nearing completion of the harvest (94.9 percent by August) is putting downward pressure on prices. Further declines are influenced by a weaker Brazilian real, which has encouraged increased export activity. At the same time, Arabica inventories have reached new lows, falling to 686,163 bags as of September 3, a notable drop from early 2024 levels. Complicating matters, the United States has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, prompting U.S. buyers to cancel orders. This policy has led to a 28 percent year-over-year drop in green coffee exports in July, down to 2.4 million bags.
• Despite these pressures, tight global supply conditions are providing some price support. Brazil’s production is forecast to rise, but stockpiles remain lean. Vietnam, the leading Robusta producer, is experiencing a 20 percent decline in output due to drought, reducing 2023–24 production to 1.47 million metric tons—the lowest in four years. Though exports increased earlier in the year, ongoing supply concerns are keeping Robusta prices elevated.
• In the United States, the 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports has disrupted trade flows, yet domestic market trends are mixed: Robusta prices have dipped slightly, while Arabica prices are on the rise. This divergence reflects differences in supply conditions, harvest timing, and possibly shifting consumer demand.
• Globally, the coffee market remains volatile. The USDA projects a record-high coffee harvest for the 2025–26 cycle, but global inventories are tight. Both Robusta and Arabica prices are trending upward due to sustained demand and constrained supply, with weather conditions, economic pressures, and regulatory changes continuing to shape the competitive landscape.

• Brazil is facing severe weather disruptions, with drought and frost significantly affecting Arabica coffee production across Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo. Compounding these challenges, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, resulting in a 28% year-over-year decline in green coffee exports as of July. Although the 2025–26 harvest is nearly complete, logistical delays at northern ports remain problematic.
• Vietnam's coffee output is also under pressure due to prolonged dry conditions in critical regions like the Central Highlands and Jack Laak. The production forecast has been revised down to 26.5 million bags. While exports rose 7.6% from January to July, domestic prices remain elevated, and future yields may decline if dry weather persists.
• Colombia reports below-average rainfall in regions such as Guela and Caldas, potentially reducing the exportable surplus. Nonetheless, Fetekaf has maintained its production forecasts and is focusing on building climate resilience. In the United States, coffee roasters are pivoting toward Central American sources in response to Brazilian tariffs, facing new hurdles like contract delays and higher freight costs.
• Meanwhile, ICE-certified stock depletion is contributing to speculative market pressure. Indonesia is experiencing low bean weight and uneven ripening due to erratic rainfall in Sumatra and Sulawesi, which may constrain third-quarter exports. Ethiopia's coffee shipments are slowing as delayed rains and high local prices intersect with EU compliance regulations, disrupting delivery timelines.
• The episode underscores the intricate interplay between climate events, international trade policies, and logistical challenges that are collectively shaping global coffee prices and availability.

• In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices have surged sharply, ranging between 124,100 and 124,400 Vietnamese dong per kilogram across major producing regions. This spike aligns with global price increases, driven by speculative buying and a substantial rise in Robusta futures. From January to July, Vietnam's coffee exports grew by 7.6 percent year over year, generating $6 billion in revenue, a 65 percent increase from the previous year. However, the European Union’s anti-deforestation regulation presents challenges, particularly for smallholder farmers, due to its recordkeeping and land certification requirements.
• Brazil faces market pressure from a severe drought affecting key Arabica-producing regions like Minas Gerais. The country saw a 20.4 percent year-over-year drop in green coffee exports in July. Compounding the issue is a newly implemented 50 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which has disrupted supply chains and elevated coffee prices in the U.S. As Brazil accounts for a significant portion of U.S. coffee imports, this policy shift has led to contract cancellations and market uncertainty.
• Globally, coffee futures remain on an upward trajectory, heavily influenced by speculative buying, drought concerns in Brazil, and evolving trade restrictions. Weather unpredictability further complicates production forecasts, even as the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects record global output for the 2025-2026 cycle. The market remains sensitive to these intersecting pressures, shaping prices and international trade flows.

• Brazil reports a sharp 49 percent year-over-year decline in Robusta coffee exports for July, contributing to an overall 20.4 percent drop in unroasted coffee exports. Despite the lower export volume, revenue reached a record high, driven by global supply shortages and elevated prices. However, new 50 percent tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee—mirroring levies on other agricultural commodities—pose significant challenges. The tariffs are expected to impact trade flows and potentially lead to inventory buildups. Meanwhile, Brazil's 2025-2026 coffee output is projected to rise slightly to 65 million bags, even as Arabica stocks remain at a 1.25-year low. A light frost in Cerrado Monero triggered temporary price gains, highlighting weather-related vulnerabilities.
• In domestic developments, coffee from Mandaguari in Paraná received Brazil’s first official designation of origin, enhancing its market appeal. Vietnam's domestic coffee prices surged in July, influenced by global supply dynamics and domestic production factors. Despite prior drought issues, Vietnam's 2025-2026 harvest is expected to increase by 6.9 percent to 31 million bags, the highest in four years.
• Globally, the coffee market remains volatile due to geopolitical tensions, weather conditions, and disrupted supply chains. The U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee are reshaping global trade, creating new opportunities for exporters such as Vietnam and Colombia to fill emerging supply gaps. Forecasts suggest a potential increase in global coffee output, which may ease persistent Arabica shortages now entering a fifth consecutive year.

• In Brazil, the sector faces potential headwinds from a proposed 50 percent export tariff under former President Trump, a measure that could curb U.S. sales and swell domestic inventories. Harvest progress has reached 74 percent overall and 85 percent for Arabica, but prices remain under pressure. Minas Gerais, the country’s leading Arabica-growing region, has received only 31 percent of its average rainfall, boosting prices but reducing yields. Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 31 percent year-on-year in June, reflecting ample domestic supply and ongoing market strain.
• Vietnam is grappling with a 20 percent production decline from last year due to severe drought, primarily impacting Robusta output. Exports dropped 17.1 percent to 1.35 million metric tons, while the European Union’s new anti-deforestation regulation poses significant compliance challenges. With the EU accounting for nearly 40 percent of Vietnam’s coffee exports, the sector faces potential market access issues unless it adapts to stringent traceability and legal documentation standards.
• In contrast, Ethiopia’s coffee industry is thriving. Export revenues hit $2.24 billion in the first eleven months of the fiscal year, exceeding targets by 46 percent with 409,600 tons exported. Growth has been supported by expanded production and stronger penetration into markets including Germany, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
• Globally, the USDA forecasts record coffee production of 178.68 million bags for 2025–26, a 2.5 percent increase. Robusta output is expected to rise 7.9 percent, while Arabica production is projected to fall 1.7 percent, a shift that could tighten certain market segments. Recent price softness has been tied to surplus expectations, but looming regulatory changes, potential Brazilian tariffs, and weather-related setbacks in key producing nations may exert greater influence on future pricing. These evolving conditions highlight the need for adaptive export strategies to maintain market stability and access.

• Vietnam's coffee industry continues to excel, with exports reaching $5.69 billion by mid-July 2025, a 66.4 percent increase year over year. Export volumes rose to 1 million tons, up 6.4 percent. This growth is driven by high global coffee prices and a strategic push toward value-added and specialty coffee products. The average export price per ton has climbed to $5,705, a 59 percent increase. Traditional markets such as Germany, Italy, and Spain remain key importers, while emerging markets including Algeria and Mexico are expanding their purchases. Vietnam’s focus on specialty coffee has helped strengthen its position in premium markets, diversify its product range, and build resilience against global price volatility. Domestically, green coffee prices are fluctuating due to speculative trading and weather concerns in major producing regions like Brazil.
• In Brazil, the 2025–2026 coffee harvest is progressing efficiently, with 84 percent completion and Robusta nearing its end. However, June exports dropped 31 percent due to port congestion and pricing uncertainties. Domestic prices have fallen amid expectations of a 50 percent U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee starting in August, prompting accelerated shipments. Despite these challenges, Brazil’s coffee production remains vital, with a gross value projected at BRL 124.25 billion. The sector is also advancing sustainability efforts, reducing chemical use and improving coffee quality through innovative practices.
• Globally, coffee production for the season is forecast to reach 178.7 million 60-kilogram bags, a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. This is mainly due to a 7.9 percent rebound in Robusta production, while Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7 percent. Despite record production, the Arabica segment faces an 8.5 million bag deficit, continuing a five-year trend of structural shortfalls. Consumption patterns in Europe, Asia, Oceania, and North America are increasingly shaping strategic decisions among producers and exporters.

• Brazil’s coffee harvest is progressing rapidly, with 77% completed by mid-July, outpacing both the previous year and the five-year average. Robusta harvesting is nearly finished at 93%, while Arabica stands at 67%. This accelerated pace signals a strong near-term supply. Major forecasting agencies confirm expectations for a global record crop of 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 season, with Robusta production leading. While earlier frost concerns temporarily elevated prices, robust inventories and continuous harvesting have kept pricing stable.
• However, Brazil faces a new challenge: a 50% tariff on coffee imports into the United States. Coupled with logistical bottlenecks at key ports like Santos and Rio de Janeiro, these factors threaten Brazil's export reliability and financial outcomes, emphasizing the need for infrastructure upgrades.
• In Vietnam, coffee production declined 20% during the 2023–2024 crop year due to drought, reaching its lowest yield in four years. Yet, the 2025–2026 season shows promise, with output forecasted to rebound to 31 million bags. Although 2024 exports dropped 17.1%, the first half of 2025 has already seen a 4.1% year-on-year increase. Vietnam is strengthening its position in the Robusta segment through diversification and international promotion.
• Overall, despite intermittent price surges driven by climate concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, the coffee market is characterized by ample supply, significant carryover stocks, and strong producer positioning. Shifts in consumption habits, trade diversification, and geopolitical changes—including tariffs and trade policy reforms—are shaping the global coffee landscape. Each producing country navigates unique challenges, but all operate within a tightly interlinked and dynamically evolving market.

• In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices in July ranged between VND 90,000 and VND 90,500 per kilogram, showing slight regional variation. The country recorded strong export performance in the first half of the year, shipping 953,900 tons worth $5.45 billion—almost matching the previous year’s total volume and value. However, Vietnam's coffee sector is facing growing pressure from stringent European Union regulations related to deforestation and traceability, which pose significant compliance challenges for small-scale and ethnically diverse producers.
• Brazil’s coffee market is experiencing downward price pressure, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and high export volumes. Rapid progress in the country's harvest has boosted global supply, while the potential implementation of a 50 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee has introduced market uncertainty. If imposed, such tariffs could redirect Brazil’s export flows, disrupting international market distributions. Despite these challenges, Brazil generated $14.73 billion in coffee export revenue during the 2024–2025 cycle.
• Globally, coffee prices have weakened across both Arabica and Robusta varieties. A 2.5 percent increase in global production is forecast for the 2025–2026 season, primarily due to a surge in Robusta output. This raises concerns about market overcapacity and continued price declines. Volatility is further fueled by shifting weather patterns in Brazil, policy threats such as U.S. tariffs, and rapid harvesting progress.
• In summary, the global coffee market is navigating complex dynamics: Vietnam sustains strong exports amid tightening EU compliance rules, Brazil faces competitive and regulatory pressures despite record earnings, and overall production growth may influence future pricing trends.

• Brazil continues to face headwinds despite being the top producer of Arabica coffee. Recent U.S. tariff hikes have contributed to rising coffee prices. Compounding these issues is a delayed harvest, with only 40 percent completed by early July, compared to 52 percent at the same time last year. The USDA projects modest output growth, estimating 65 million bags for the season. However, adverse weather in key regions like Minas Gerais is driving price pressures. Brazilian green coffee exports declined sharply in May, down 36 percent year-over-year.
• Vietnam, meanwhile, is recovering from a 20 percent production drop in the 2023–24 crop year due to drought, which caused the lowest yields in four years. Despite this, exports rose 4.1 percent in the first half of 2025. Looking ahead, Vietnam anticipates a 6.9 percent rebound in production for 2025–26, reaching 31 million bags. While robust supply continues to suppress Robusta prices, a decline in inventory levels has provided some price relief.
• Globally, coffee production is expected to grow 2.5 percent, reaching a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–26 period. Robusta production is forecast to rise by 7.9 percent, while Arabica is set to decline by 1.7 percent. This creates a complex supply environment, especially with Volcafe predicting a continued global Arabica deficit for a fifth consecutive year.
• Vietnam's market outlook is further supported by its classification as a low deforestation risk by the EU, enhancing its competitiveness. However, maintaining this status will require adherence to strict regulatory standards. Diversification strategies targeting Northeast Asia and more price-sensitive markets like India are expected to offer additional growth avenues.

• Brazil's coffee harvest is progressing slower than usual, with only 31% completed compared to 42% at this time last year. This delay, attributed to excessive rainfall affecting Arabica beans, has paradoxically helped ease drought concerns. Despite the slowdown, the USDA forecasts a minor 0.5% increase in Brazil's coffee production, reaching 65 million bags for the 2025-2026 season. However, exports have plummeted, with green coffee shipments dropping 36% year over year in May. These mixed signals contribute to bearish market fundamentals in Brazil.
• Vietnam, a leading Robusta producer, is facing severe challenges after a 20% production drop due to drought, resulting in its smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has adjusted its forecast down to 26.5 million bags for 2024. Nonetheless, Vietnam achieved record export values of $4.7 billion in the first five months of the year, driven by high average export prices. The USDA projects a 6.9% rebound in Robusta production for the 2025-2026 season, although domestic and global prices remain under pressure.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to rise 2.5% to a historic 178.68 million bags, with Robusta output expected to grow by 7.9% and Arabica to decline by 1.7%. Ending stocks are forecasted to increase by 4.9%, reaching nearly 22.8 million bags. However, Volcafe warns of a widening Arabica deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year, deepening by 8.5 million bags.
• India's coffee sector is thriving, with exports rising 125% over eleven years to $1.8 billion for 2024-2025. The Coffee Board of India's efforts to promote sustainable, shade-grown, and value-added products have contributed to this growth. In contrast, Colombia faces production setbacks due to poor weather affecting the Mitaka crop. Forecasts for Colombian output have been downgraded, raising concerns about the global supply-demand balance.

• Brazil's 2025 coffee output is forecast at 55.7 million bags, up 2.7% from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to a 28.3% surge in Robusta production in Espirito Santo, while Arabica yields have declined due to drought and cyclical patterns. Harvest progress currently stands at 17.8% overall, with Robusta leading, aided by above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais. However, persistent colder and drier conditions continue to pose risks to crop health.
• In Vietnam, continued drought has led to a downward revision of the production estimate to 26.5 million bags. This has resulted in a 17.1% drop in 2024 exports and a further 1.8% decline in export volumes through May 2025. Ethiopia, conversely, is poised for record production of 11.56 million bags and a projected 11.4% export increase, driven by climate-resilient farming and exchange liberalization. Nonetheless, cooler, drier weather in Oromia and SNMP regions threatens fruit development.
• The global coffee market is currently shaped by a mix of bearish and bullish forces. Supply-side optimism, stemming from Brazil’s recovery and rising ice inventories, is tempered by demand uncertainty, volatile pricing, and shipping disruptions. Meanwhile, concerns over weather-related crop stress in regions like Minas Gerais, Colombia, and Ethiopia provide upward pressure on prices.
• A projected structural deficit of 8.5 million bags of Arabica highlights long-term supply concerns. Declining export trends from major producers such as Brazil and Vietnam, along with technical indicators, suggest potential market downturns unless key resistance levels are maintained. These developments underscore a fragile global equilibrium, where short-term gains are offset by deeper vulnerabilities.

• Ethiopia is expected to reach a historic peak in coffee production for the 2025–2026 marketing year, with output projected at 11.56 million 60-kilogram bags, or approximately 694,000 metric tons. This 9 percent year-on-year increase is driven by national agricultural reforms, favorable weather, and the widespread replanting of improved coffee varieties on over 450,000 hectares of aging farmland. Yield gains have been especially strong in regions such as Gidio, where productivity has tripled.
• The country’s production remains overwhelmingly Arabica. Higher-yielding, climate-resilient seedlings and improved farming practices have supported this growth. Favorable global coffee prices, along with liberalized export policies and market-based exchange rates, have further stimulated investment. Domestic consumption is also rising, forecast to reach 3.7 million bags, reflecting increased urbanization and the growth of a modern cafe culture. Exports are set to increase 11.4 percent to 7.8 million bags, with green coffee accounting for 99.5 percent of shipments.
• Despite this progress, Ethiopia continues to face significant hurdles: erratic rainfall, poor infrastructure, limited financing for smallholders, and dependence on volatile Arabica prices. Market access barriers also persist for smaller producers.
• Brazil is similarly poised for a record-setting coffee harvest in 2025, projected at 55.7 million bags. This performance is notable given it is an off-year in the biennial cycle. Arabica production is down 6.6 percent due to earlier drought conditions and cyclical factors, but Robusta output is surging, particularly in Espirito Santo, where favorable conditions and modern techniques have pushed production up 28.3 percent.
• Global market response included a sharp price increase in May, which eased in June as Brazil’s robust harvest helped calm supply concerns. Brazil continues to lead in logistics efficiency, with over 90 percent of exports processed through major ports. From July 2024 to May 2025, export volumes declined by 2 percent year over year, yet export revenues reached a record $13.69 billion, the highest for any single crop year. Arabica remains the dominant export, with specialty and premium coffees maintaining an important share despite modest output declines.

• This episode of the CropGPT Global Coffee Market Weekly focuses on the latest developments in Vietnam and Brazil, two of the world’s most influential coffee producers.
• Vietnam reported record-high export revenues of $4.7 billion for the first five months of 2025, despite a slight 0.6% dip in export volumes. The surge was driven by significantly higher prices, averaging $5,709 per ton. Major markets included the European Union and the United States, while emerging markets like Algeria, Mexico, and South Africa also showed strong growth. However, declining global coffee prices and falling domestic prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands pose emerging risks. Looking forward, Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to rise by 6.9%, with the government targeting $7 billion in total export value this year.
• Meanwhile, Brazil continues to expand its footprint in global markets, supported by the rise of Amazonian Robusta from Rondonia. This variety, known for its resilience and strong flavor, is gaining popularity. However, climate change is reshaping cultivation strategies. In Cerrado Monero, farmers are testing canilon coffee, a robusta variant, to cope with rising temperatures. Currency dynamics, such as the strength of the Brazilian real, are also influencing export behavior and price stability.
• The episode concludes by highlighting the importance of adapting to both market opportunities and environmental challenges, while encouraging listeners to explore more comprehensive data and insights on the CropGPT platform.

This episode offers a concise and professional overview of key developments in the global coffee market as of early June 2025. The discussion begins with Colombia, where the National Federation of Coffee Growers has implemented a guaranteed purchase price linked to the New York Stock Exchange and exchange rate fluctuations. As of June 2, Colombian coffee fetched a premium of $344.45 per pound, with internal prices reaching up to 385,000 COP for dry parchment loads, depending on milling performance and quality metrics.

The Brazilian coffee market remains under bearish pressure, primarily due to a strong robusta harvest in Espírito Santo and a weakened real, contributing to a 5.14% drop in Arabica futures as of May 30. Local market prices have also declined, with Arabica and Robusta varieties seeing respective decreases of 7.3% and 13%. Despite strong international demand, Brazil's expected 2025/26 production may continue to suppress domestic prices.

In Vietnam, coffee export volumes have declined by 5.5% year-over-year through May 2025. However, a 56% increase in export revenue highlights improved global pricing power. Domestic prices are projected to soften due to higher anticipated production—a 6.9% year-on-year increase is expected for the upcoming season.

The European Union’s new deforestation regulations are also influencing trade patterns, designating Brazilian coffee as medium risk and increasing compliance hurdles. Conversely, Vietnam and Kenya, classified as low-risk, may gain smoother access to EU markets, potentially shifting sourcing strategies.

The episode concludes with a broader view on the volatility and complexity of the coffee trade. While production in Brazil and Vietnam remains robust, export volumes from Brazil have fallen, and yet higher per-bag prices are driving revenue growth. Listeners are encouraged to visit the CropGPT website for in-depth data, including historical weather trends, crop health, pricing, and earnings analysis.

• Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers continues to implement a structured pricing model tied to New York Stock Exchange coffee prices, daily exchange rates, and Colombian quality premiums. As of May 29, a 125kg load of dry parchment coffee was priced at $2,791 COP. Defective coffee incurs significant price penalties, reinforcing a quality-driven production model that financially protects growers.
• Brazil: The 2025–26 season is forecast to bring strong Arabica output despite lingering weather concerns. However, a rapid Robusta harvest has led to sharp price declines—7.3% for Type 6 Arabica in São Paulo and 13% for Robusta in Espírito Santo. Despite falling prices, Brazil's large output continues to exert influence over global coffee pricing.
• Vietnam: While coffee export volumes declined 5.5% year-over-year, export revenues rose by 56%, reflecting high global prices. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands are now softening in line with international trends. A 20% yield loss due to drought highlights the vulnerability of supply to climatic factors. Ongoing investment in cultivation is expected to improve future output stability.
• European Union Regulations: The EU has categorized Brazilian coffee as a “medium-risk” commodity under its deforestation-free import regulations. This designation subjects Brazilian exporters to more stringent audit and compliance procedures compared to “low-risk” countries such as Vietnam and Kenya. Enhanced monitoring and traceability efforts will be essential for Brazilian coffee to maintain access to European markets.

• Colombia: On May 26, the National Federation of Coffee Growers introduced a revised pricing guarantee to stabilize farmer income. This mechanism anchors local prices to the New York Stock Exchange's closing quote, adjusted by exchange rates and Colombian quality premiums. On the day of the announcement, the C contract closed at 360.75 USD/lb, with Colombia’s reference price set at COP 932,000 per 125 kg of parchment coffee. Additional price differentiation applies based on quality and region, with severe defects incurring deductions up to COP 88,000. These pricing models are designed to ensure cost recovery while incentivizing quality production.
• Brazil: The USDA projects Brazil’s 2025–26 coffee harvest to rise slightly to 65 million bags, driven by a 7.3% increase in Robusta output. While rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais pose risks, Brazil remains a key market force, supported by an export value projection of BRL 127.88 billion for 2025—BRL 93.05 billion from Arabica and BRL 34.82 billion from Robusta (Coffea conifera). Despite reduced export volumes, tightening supplies may lend some price support in the near term.
• Vietnam: Vietnam anticipates a 6.9% increase in 2025–26 output, reaching 31 million bags. This follows a 20% yield drop during the 2023–24 crop year due to drought—its lowest in four years. Despite export reductions, Vietnam maintains its dominant position in the Robusta market. Recovery investments in cultivation aim to stabilize supply and reinforce market presence.
• Global Outlook: The international coffee market remains highly volatile, driven by fluctuating production forecasts, export shifts, climate variability, and trade policy adjustments. Prices for both Arabica and Robusta are influenced by rapid changes in major producing nations. The landscape is defined by a delicate balance between local industry strategies and global supply-demand dynamics.

• Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers continues to set a guaranteed daily base price, calculated using the New York Stock Exchange's closing figures, prevailing exchange rates, and premiums for Colombian coffee. On the reporting day, the external contract closed at USD 387.35/lb, and the domestic reference price was COP 3,185,000 per 125 kg of dry parchment. Pricing remains influenced by coffee quality, particularly the share of pasilla (unsalable beans), and varies regionally between cities like Armenia and Bogotá.
• Brazil: Green coffee exports in April 2025 declined by 31.9% year-over-year to 886,250 bags. Despite this, total coffee production for the 2025 calendar year is projected to rise 2.7%, potentially reaching 55.7 million bags. However, challenges persist due to unfavorable weather in Minas Gerais and increased production costs, especially for Arabica growers. In response, investments are being made in crop protection and technological upgrades to sustain output.
• Uganda: The country recorded exceptional growth in coffee exports, with March 2025 volumes up 92.19% year-over-year, totaling 642,981 bags. Robusta led the surge with a 111.39% increase, boosting export revenues by 202.52% to USD 198.62 million. This performance underscores Uganda’s growing role in the global Robusta supply chain.
• India: Coffee agroforestry in the Western Ghats is gaining attention for its dual role in supporting coffee cultivation and ecological restoration. New research highlights the potential of native tree species within coffee farms to contribute to forest regeneration, supporting both biodiversity and sustainable agriculture.

Global Market Perspective: The coffee sector remains highly dynamic, shaped by diverse factors including quality control mechanisms, weather-related production risks, regional policy developments, and sustainability initiatives. As pricing and supply conditions fluctuate, producers and traders must navigate a complex, multi-regional landscape with evolving risks and opportunities.

Key Highlights:

• Origin of Arabica: Ethiopia is widely recognized as the birthplace of Coffea arabica.
• Global Ranking:
  • Largest coffee producer in Africa
  • 5th-largest globally in 2023
  • 2023/24 production: 8.35 million 60-kg bags (~501,000 metric tons)
• Comparison with Top Producers:
  • Brazil: 3.4M tons, highly mechanized, 30% of global supply
  • Vietnam: 2.0M tons, mostly Robusta
  • Colombia: 680K tons, premium Arabica from supported smallholders
  • Indonesia: 760K tons, Arabica + Robusta blend
• Arabica Focus:
  • Nearly 100% of Ethiopia’s output is Arabica
  • Among the top 3 Arabica producers globally
• Yields & Productivity:
  • Yields remain low: ~800 kg/ha
  • Lag behind Brazil (1,500–2,400), Vietnam (2,200–2,500), Colombia (1,000–1,200)
  • Constraints include old trees, low input use, disease, and fragmented land
• Growth Trends:
  • Steady 3–4% annual growth (2015–2025)
  • Driven by area expansion, not yield gains
  • World coffee share rose to ~5% by 2023
• Reputation & Quality:
  • Internationally praised for unique cup profiles and flavor diversity
  • Specialty Grade 1 and 2 beans command premium prices
  • Strong position in specialty coffee markets
• Farming Practices:
  • ~95% of production from smallholder farmers
  • Traditional, organic agroforestry systems under shade trees
  • High quality, but low mechanization and economic vulnerability
• Key Challenge: