• Ivory Coast is a major focus, with cocoa production for the 2025-26 season projected to fall 10.8 percent year over year to 1.65 million metric tons, down from 1.85 million tons the previous season. That weaker outlook is reinforced by lower port arrivals through mid-March, indicating reduced export flow. At the same time, higher shipping costs linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing import expenses and lending temporary support to cocoa prices. The government’s 57 percent cut in farm gate prices has also encouraged some renewed local buying, as processors moved to secure larger contracts.
• The episode also highlights Ghana, where authorities have reduced farm gate prices by nearly 30 percent in an effort to improve competitiveness. Even so, licensed buyers continue to face serious liquidity constraints, slowing bean procurement from farmers. Because local prices remain above global levels, international trade has been discouraged and stockpiles are beginning to build, raising concerns not only about financial strain but also about possible deterioration in bean quality.
• Nigeria adds another layer to the outlook. Cocoa exports were up 17 percent year over year as of December, showing strong trade momentum, but that strength may be difficult to sustain. The Nigerian Cocoa Association is forecasting an 11 percent drop in production for the 2025-26 season, which could tighten regional supply further unless other producers offset the decline.
• Overall, the episode presents a cocoa market where local disruptions are not enough to outweigh weak global demand. 

• In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.
• Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend persists. Ghana, similarly benefiting from favorable weather, faces comparable logistical hurdles.
• Globally, the cocoa market reflects a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. The International Cocoa Organization has reported a smaller expected surplus, and U.S. inventories have fallen to an 8.75-month low. The recent inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may further attract investment, reinforcing price strength. However, weak demand trends are tempering optimism, as grind figures across Asia and Europe fall and North American chocolate sales decline.
• Finally, the European Union's postponed enforcement of its deforestation rule offers short-term supply relief but introduces uncertainty into long-term forecasts. Traders must weigh these diverse signals, with supply limitations and demand softness continuing to drive volatility in the cocoa market.

• Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.
• In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or logistical issues, tempering expectations of a surplus. While balanced rainfall has aided West African production overall, the corresponding risk of oversupply has placed downward pressure on prices.
• Policy developments are also shaping the market. The European Parliament's delay in implementing the EU deforestation regulation has temporarily eased export pressures for West African producers. Meanwhile, proposed tariff adjustments in the United States on Brazilian cocoa may enhance Brazil’s competitiveness, altering global trade flows and pricing.
• Despite tightening inventories, market sentiment remains cautious. This is reflected in increased net short positions in London cocoa futures, indicating that traders are bracing for potential demand-side weaknesses. These developments illustrate the complex interplay between production trends, policy shifts, and speculative activity in determining global cocoa market dynamics.

• The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.
• Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Nigeria, meanwhile, is expected to see an 11 percent drop in cocoa production due to limited investment and agronomic issues. Nonetheless, broader global supply appears stable due to compensating growth in other producing countries.
• Globally, cocoa demand is under pressure. Asian grind data reveals a 17 percent decline, while Europe reports a 4.8 percent drop, both pointing to reduced chocolate production. North American markets also face weak retail sales, with notable downturns from firms like Hershey.
• On the trading front, March 2026 cocoa futures are under sustained bearish pressure, hovering near $5,050 per ton. Without consistent closes above $5,750, market sentiment remains negative, and lower support levels may be tested. Overall, while production forecasts are favorable in parts of West Africa, market direction is dominated by regulatory timing, demand softness, and technical pricing patterns.

• Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is currently above the five-year average, driven by favorable weather and optimal pod development. Despite a 5.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for October and November, the drop reflects logistical challenges rather than reduced output. Farmers remain hopeful for the main crop, though global demand fluctuations and policy changes add uncertainty. Ghana reports similarly strong production prospects due to healthy agricultural conditions, but faces demand-side and regulatory pressures.
• Nigeria contrasts with its neighbors, projecting an 11 percent production decline for the 2025–2026 season. This decrease stems from infrastructure gaps and local climate issues, though exports have remained stable, showcasing resilience. Meanwhile, the United States has removed a 10 percent import tariff on cocoa, aiming to lower costs and encourage imports.
• In the European Union, the implementation of a deforestation regulation targeting cocoa-linked land use violations has been delayed. This temporarily reduces pressure on suppliers in West Africa and South America. However, global cocoa demand remains subdued. Declining grind data in key markets like North America, Asia, and Europe reflects reduced chocolate sales, with companies such as Hershey noting downward trends. As a result, the International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a market surplus, reversing earlier deficit projections.
• Overall, while favorable production in Ivory Coast and Ghana supports supply, weakened demand and Nigeria’s production setbacks complicate the market outlook and contribute to price volatility.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa production remains robust, supported by favorable weather that has enhanced pod development and bean drying efficiency. Harvest volumes are 7 percent above the five-year average. However, port arrivals have dropped by 9 percent year over year. This is not due to reduced output, but rather early-season logistical bottlenecks and farmers delaying shipments.
• Ghana is also experiencing strong agricultural conditions, with rapid pod development and favorable feedback from farmers suggesting a strong upcoming harvest. Nonetheless, softer chocolate sales in North America and Europe are placing downward pressure on global demand and prices.
• Conversely, Nigeria is facing an anticipated 11 percent drop in cocoa output. Structural inefficiencies and poor weather are contributing factors, potentially causing supply constraints in markets reliant on Nigerian cocoa.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, as reflected by lower processing (grinding) activity in North America, Asia, and Europe. This slowdown is occurring despite rising production levels in key countries. While the addition of cocoa to the Bloomberg Commodity Index could stimulate speculative interest, it is unlikely to offset the impact of declining chocolate consumption and growing supply.
• Export patterns reinforce these concerns. The Ivory Coast, despite strong production, is experiencing reduced export volumes, while U.S. cocoa stock levels are falling. Although tight stock availability might offer some price support, rising global production estimates point to a likely surplus unless demand conditions change substantially.

• In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.
• Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports pod development and yield potential, the industry is hampered by smuggling, driven by price gaps and delayed farmer payments. The government has introduced informant reward programs and improved pricing strategies to combat these challenges. It is also supporting farmers with subsidies, including free fertilizers and pesticides, to retain agricultural value within the country.
• In Nigeria, cocoa production is forecasted to drop by 11% in the 2025-2026 crop year, down to 305,000 metric tons. This decline is linked to aging plantations and insufficient access to fertilizers, posing a risk to Nigeria’s economy and tightening global supply, which may further influence price trends.
• Cocoa’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to draw inflows from passive investment funds, possibly stabilizing or lifting cocoa futures. However, the market remains vulnerable to softening global demand. Grinding volumes—a proxy for demand—have decreased across Asia, Europe, and North America. Elevated cocoa prices and tariffs have also curbed chocolate consumption in key consumer regions like North America.

• Ivory Coast enters the season with strong production expectations, with pod counts above the five-year average. However, significant volumes of preseason stock are being rejected by grinders and exporters due to concerns over small bean size and low fat content. Although the main crop is robust, the mid-crop yield is expected to decline by 9% from the previous year, raising quality concerns. In response to economic pressures and the upcoming presidential election, the government has raised cocoa prices to support approximately five million farmers. Despite this, liquidity shortages and quality issues are limiting trader willingness to finance new purchases.
• Cocoa exports from Ivory Coast have seen a modest year-on-year increase, but logistical and financial hurdles are delaying shipments. On the sustainability front, 40% of cocoa is now digitally traceable, though delays in EU deforestation legislation may slow further reforms.
• Ghana’s cocoa sector is poised for recovery, with projected production exceeding 650,000 tons for the 2025–2026 season, thanks to improved farming practices and government programs. However, long-term risks from soil degradation and illegal mining remain. Subsidies and pricing support have reduced smuggling, bolstering Ghana’s market position.
• Global demand continues to lag, particularly in Europe and North America, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite this, local enterprises are innovating with cocoa pulp to diversify income streams for farmers. As production rises across West Africa, the global cocoa market is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus. However, demand recovery remains slow, indicated by lower grinding volumes in key consumption regions.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa pod counts have risen 7% above the five-year average, driven by higher farmgate prices. However, exports fell sharply, down over 50% year on year, totaling just 48,753 metric tons in early October. While the elevated pricing policy aims to support farmer incomes and encourage production, critics warn it may lead to global oversupply. Additionally, mid-crop quality and volumes have declined due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates lowered to 400,000 metric tons (a 9% annual drop).
• Ghana, by contrast, has seen a surge in cocoa deliveries. Between August and early September, arrivals reached 50,440 metric tons, up from just 11,000 metric tons the prior year. This has boosted optimism for the 2025–26 main crop, with a target of 650,000 metric tons, up 8.3% from last year. Meanwhile, Nigeria faces a forecasted 11% production drop to 305,000 metric tons, driven by aging trees, poor infrastructure, and shortages of agricultural inputs. Although exports rose by 15% in August, they declined 22% year on year in July, reflecting ongoing systemic issues.
• Globally, the International Cocoa Organization projects a 142,000 metric ton surplus for the current season, driven by a 7.8% increase in production to 4.84 million metric tons. This supply growth, coupled with weakening grind data from key regions (including a 35% year-on-year drop in Malaysia's Q3 grindings and a 21% decline in North American chocolate candy sales), is placing downward pressure on prices.
• Despite short-term tensions such as ICE-monitored stocks falling to a six-month low, the broader market outlook remains bearish. 

• Ivory Coast has increased its guaranteed farm gate price to $4.5 per kilogram, a strategic move ahead of upcoming elections aimed at improving farmer incomes. As the world’s leading cocoa producer, contributing 14% to national GDP and supporting around 5 million people, this price hike may prompt neighboring countries like Ghana to reevaluate their own pricing models. Favorable weather conditions support strong cocoa pod development, although concerns persist about mid-crop quality due to earlier adverse weather.
• Ghana has responded with a fivefold increase in cocoa deliveries, reaching 50,440 metric tons in a recent month. The country is also raising farmer payouts to boost production, which is projected to grow 8.3% annually to 650,000 metric tons. In contrast, Nigeria anticipates an 11% decline in output to 305,000 metric tons, citing poor farm management, declining exports, and limited access to farming inputs. These trends highlight structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s cocoa sector.
• The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024–2025 season, driven mainly by increased production in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Despite rising output, global demand remains subdued. Chocolate consumption is falling in key markets such as Europe, Asia, and North America due to high cocoa prices and economic pressures. This supply-demand imbalance is contributing to downward pressure on prices, presenting both challenges for producers and potential price relief for consumers.

• Ivory Coast is experiencing a mixed production season. While the main crop (October to March) shows promise with a 7 percent increase in pod counts above the five-year average due to favorable weather, the mid-crop harvest (April to September) fell 9 percent year over year. This decline is linked to late rains that hindered pod development. Export growth slowed significantly, dropping from a 35 percent rise as of December 2024 to just 4.6 percent year over year. The cocoa swollen shoot virus continues to pose a major threat, with potential yield losses of up to 70 percent.
• In Ghana, the government has implemented a strategic 12 percent increase in farm gate cocoa prices for the 2025–2026 season. This move is designed to support farmer incomes and boost production, with forecasts indicating an 8.3 percent rise. However, risks remain from the swollen shoot virus and climate-induced dry spells, which may offset gains. Weak global demand and the possibility of cocoa surpluses could place downward pressure on prices.
• Nigeria faces an expected 11 percent drop in cocoa production for the season, mainly due to adverse weather and disease. Nonetheless, exports have managed a modest year-over-year increase. The production challenges reflect broader regional concerns around quality control, disease management, and agricultural practices.

• Côte d’Ivoire, which contributes about 40% of the world’s cocoa supply, continues to benefit from government-led agricultural improvement and sustainability initiatives. However, these gains are moderated by unpredictable weather conditions and threats from pests and disease. Political stability and a supportive regulatory environment remain essential to maintaining production levels. Recent projections indicate potential output growth, bolstered by favorable conditions and efforts to replace aging cocoa trees.
• In Ghana, the second largest global producer, the emphasis on sustainable farming is beginning to show positive results in yield improvement. The Ghana Cocoa Board plays a critical role by equipping farmers with training and resources. Rising global demand for high-quality cocoa, especially for dark chocolate, is also influencing market dynamics.
• Despite these advancements, cocoa farmers face volatility. Price fluctuations continue to threaten income stability and the long-term viability of sustainable practices. Nigeria, facing an 11% projected year-on-year decline in production, struggles with plant diseases and inefficient farming techniques. Market and economic pressures further affect pricing and profitability.
• Ecuador is emerging as a significant player, with expected production exceeding 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. High cocoa prices are driving investment, and Ecuadorian farmers receive a larger share of global market prices—about 90%—which enhances profitability. The adoption of agroforestry systems supports both sustainability and disease management.
• On a global level, the cocoa market is undergoing structural changes. Elevated prices are reshaping demand, pushing some buyers toward more cost-effective options or reducing their purchases. The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global surplus, which could help stabilize prices but also pose risks if demand continues to weaken. Across regions, sustainable farming remains essential for long-term industry resilience in the face of evolving economic and environmental conditions.

• In Ivory Coast, favorable weather has boosted the main cocoa crop, but extended heavy rains have hampered port deliveries and bean drying, raising quality concerns. The mid-crop output has declined 9% year over year, reaching 400,000 metric tons. Export growth has also slowed to 5.8%, further altering market dynamics.
• Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, aiming for 650,000 metric tons. This outlook is underpinned by better access to fertilizers and pest control, though irregular rainfall and the prevalence of black pod disease continue to threaten yields and processing margins, especially in the Western North region.
• Nigeria anticipates an 11% production decline to 305,000 metric tons, primarily due to erratic weather and logistical challenges. Nonetheless, exports have edged up by 0.9% year over year. Policy measures are being considered to support the sector.
• Cameroon is also facing a projected 6% production decrease, driven by pest pressure and inconsistent rainfall. Emergency pesticide efforts and price stabilization initiatives are in motion, but climatic instability remains a threat to quality premiums.
• In Ecuador, extreme heat and rainfall shortages have negatively affected cocoa pod development and bean weight, prompting concerns over meeting premium export standards. Exporters have called for emergency government support to mitigate these challenges.
• Despite positive crop projections in some regions, the global cocoa market remains cautious due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and quality concerns, which continue to impact local economies and international supply chains.

• In Ivory Coast, despite increased pod counts and an optimistic harvest forecast, quality concerns persist due to late rains affecting pod development. The mid-crop yield is now projected at 400,000 tons. Although export volumes remain stable, they represent a slowdown from prior peaks, further strained by dry conditions impacting both quality and quantity. The suspension of operations by Cargill due to bean quality deterioration underscores the ongoing challenges for regional processors.
• Ghana expects an 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons, supported by yield enhancement programs. However, disease threats like black pod disease, fueled by abnormal moisture, pose risks to future harvests.
• Nigeria faces an 11 percent decline in cocoa production, down to 305,000 tons, largely due to adverse weather and disease pressure. Nonetheless, a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year increase in exports suggests a degree of resilience. Long-term concerns persist over infrastructure and disease management.
• Cameroon anticipates a 6 percent drop in output, driven by rising pest infestations and erratic rainfall, prompting government consideration of emergency interventions. Meanwhile, Ecuador's cocoa sector is being negatively impacted by extreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall, which are producing smaller beans and raising concerns over quality in both domestic and export markets.

This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. 
• Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod intensified by cold and dry weather, remain a threat. To mitigate risks, the Ghana Cocoa Board has introduced an expanded seedling program targeting 75,000 farms. 
• Nigeria continues to struggle with weather and disease issues, with forecasts pointing to an 11 percent production decline to about 305,000 metric tons. Although June exports showed a modest improvement over last year, persistent post-harvest losses and poor infrastructure, especially in storage and transport, weigh heavily on long-term output. 
• Cameroon faces a projected 6 percent drop in production due to pests and erratic weather. Authorities are considering emergency measures to address infestations. Ecuador is also contending with climate-related challenges. Regions such as Esmeraldas and Manabi are experiencing excess moisture that delays drying and increases disease risk, while Guayas faces drought and potential pod shrinkage. Producers in the country are voicing concerns about the quality of upcoming shipments. 

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.
• Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which have also affected neighboring Nigeria. Nonetheless, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 metric tons, creating a bearish price outlook due to anticipated supply growth. However, farming sector challenges—including delayed payments and shortages of key inputs—could compromise these projections if not promptly addressed.
• Nigeria is expected to see an 11% drop in production, down to 305,000 metric tons, driven by continued adverse weather. This could cause localized shortages despite the broader surplus. Rural transport issues are further increasing post-harvest losses. Cameroon also faces a potential 6% year-over-year decline due to weather variability and pest pressure.
• On a global scale, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings down in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling a slowdown in the chocolate sector. With global production forecasted to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million metric tons, the market is shifting into surplus territory for the first time in four years. Technical indicators show a continued bearish trend, with September 2025 futures breaking below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Current support levels are at $7,385, with resistance now lowered to around $8,000.

• In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.
• Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. However, dissatisfaction among farmers over uncompetitive producer prices could lead to smuggling and instability, potentially impacting support services and future output.
• Nigeria is expecting an 11 percent decline in cocoa production due to adverse weather, falling to 305,000 metric tons. On the demand side, cocoa grindings have dropped in Europe (down 7.2 percent), Asia, and North America (declining by 16.3 and 2.8 percent, respectively), indicating a broader decrease in global demand.
• The International Cocoa Organization predicts a shift from a current global deficit to a surplus in the coming years, driven by expected increases in production. This shift could ease price pressures but will hinge on improving weather in West Africa and resolution of farmer unrest in key producing countries.
• Technical market factors also play a role, with cocoa futures responding to pressures at critical support and resistance levels. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor weather trends and market sentiment in this volatile environment.

• Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is currently facing unfavorable weather conditions characterized by below-average rainfall and high temperatures. These conditions are jeopardizing pod development ahead of the October main crop harvest. Despite this, the country has seen a 6.6% year-over-year increase in cocoa exports, totaling 1,780,000 metric tons between October and August 10. However, this growth reflects a decrease from a December export surge, and concerns remain about crop quality, with 5% to 6% of the mid-crop yield classified as poor due to delayed rains. The mid-crop yield is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9% decline from the previous year.
• In contrast, Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 period, reaching 650,000 metric tons. The growth is supported by government initiatives such as fertilizer subsidies and pest control programs. Meanwhile, Nigeria expects an 11% decline in cocoa output, down to 305,000 metric tons, due to adverse weather and aging plantations. Nevertheless, demand for Nigerian cocoa is rising, particularly through new trade ties with Belgium, reflecting the country's shift towards agricultural exports.
• Globally, the cocoa market is in flux, with production variances and shifting demand patterns. Cocoa grinding has declined in Europe (7.2%), Asia (16.3%), and North America (2.8%), highlighting demand fluctuations. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has reported a record global deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023–2024 season, followed by a forecasted surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, influencing market prices.
• The episode also discusses technological innovations, such as MARS Inc.'s collaboration with Pairwise on CRISPR gene editing. These efforts aim to enhance cocoa crop resilience and productivity in response to challenges like climate change and disease, aligning with broader strategies for agricultural advancement and economic diversification across West Africa.

• The Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is facing a significant slowdown in production growth, with exports up only 6 percent this year to 1.76 million metric tons, compared to a 35 percent increase last year. Adverse weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, are impacting both yield and quality ahead of the main crop harvest in October. Mid-crop yields have been revised downward to 400,000 metric tons from an earlier 440,000 metric ton forecast, due to quality rejections affecting up to 6 percent of the crop. Political considerations are also at play, with speculation that the government may raise cocoa prices before upcoming elections to secure farmer support.
• Ghana, the second-largest producer, expects an 8.3 percent production increase for the 2025–26 season, potentially reaching 650,000 metric tons. This could exert downward pressure on global prices. In contrast, Nigeria is projecting an 11 percent decline to 305,000 metric tons, contributing to upward price pressures. Guyana has increased producer prices to support livelihoods and stimulate tourism through infrastructure improvements in cocoa-producing regions.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings in Europe down 7.2 percent and in Asia down 16.3 percent year on year, marking the lowest second-quarter levels in eight years. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its estimate for the current season’s deficit to 494,000 metric tons but forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–25, driven by a 7.8 percent production rise to 4.84 million metric tons.
• A major concern in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is the increase in cocoa smuggling, fueled by high global prices, price disparities, weak enforcement, and corruption. This is causing substantial public revenue losses and threatening economic stability. These factors are shaping both current and future cocoa market dynamics, influencing everything from African economies to international chocolate pricing and agricultural sustainability efforts.

• Ivory Coast aims to increase its local cocoa processing rate from 42 percent to 50 percent by 2027, targeting 750,000 metric tons in annual grindings. This initiative is supported by infrastructure expansions such as a new grinding facility in Abidjan and the enlargement of the San Pedro Port. However, progress is hindered by slow export growth and deteriorating bean quality. In mid-July, exports grew just 6.8 percent year over year, a steep decline from 35 percent growth seen in December. The European Union’s new deforestation regulations, which require traceability, add further strain on smaller operators, prompting calls for government intervention. Meanwhile, cocoa yield for the mid-crop is estimated to fall 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons due to adverse weather, and the rollout of a digital traceability platform has sparked concerns about its impact on small exporters. Global demand for chocolate is also waning, as reflected by reduced grindings in major regions.
• In Ghana, a projected 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production to 650,000 metric tons is threatened by excessive rainfall, limited sunlight, and heightened risks of fungal diseases such as black pod. These conditions challenge the Ghana Cocoa Board’s production goals despite disease control efforts. Additionally, regional price disparities are driving cocoa smuggling, while quality issues are affecting neighboring producers and contributing to market instability.
• At the global level, the cocoa market faces its largest supply deficit in 60 years, with the International Cocoa Organization reporting a 494,000 metric tons shortfall for the 2023–2024 season. Grindings have declined in key areas, reflecting reduced demand, while high prices driven by supply constraints are dampening chocolate consumption and affecting financial forecasts. Upcoming policy changes, including tariff exemptions, may offer some relief but also introduce new complexities to international trade.
• The cocoa sectors in both Ivory Coast and Ghana are navigating a challenging period marked by environmental, regulatory, and market pressures. Strategic adaptations will be essential for these countries to maintain resilience and competitiveness in a volatile global market.

• Ivory Coast is experiencing a notable reduction in both the volume and quality of its mid-crop cocoa. The crop is forecasted to reach 400,000 metric tons, reflecting a 9% year-over-year decline. Compounding concerns are rising defect rates, now at 5–6% per truckload compared to the usual 1%, raising alarms over quality.
• Export momentum from the region is slowing, as shown by a subdued 6.1% annual growth, a stark contrast to the 35% surge observed the previous December. Additionally, small cocoa firms are grappling with compliance issues related to new EU deforestation regulations, which may threaten their viability.
• On the demand side, global cocoa grindings are in decline. European grindings are down 7.2%, Asia's by 16.3%, and North America's by 2.8% year-over-year. These reductions are mirrored by weak financial results from major chocolate producers like Barry Callebaut and Lindt & Sprüngli. The bearish outlook is reinforced by rising U.S. inventories, now at a ten-and-a-half-month high, and a projected global surplus for the 2024–2025 season by the International Cocoa Organization.
• Despite these trends, the market remains volatile. A prior global deficit and falling production could prompt price spikes if supply disruptions or speculative activity arise. Long-term recovery would hinge on demand resurgence or further crop degradation. High input costs, such as those influencing Hershey’s decision to raise candy prices, underline the industry's strategic crossroads, where cost control and pricing decisions will be crucial.

• Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is experiencing mixed agricultural conditions. From October to July, cocoa shipments to ports are projected to increase by 6.8 percent. However, this figure is modest compared to the 35 percent surge reported the previous December. Heavy rainfall has disrupted the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in poor-quality beans, now affecting 5 to 6 percent of the harvest—up from 1 percent during the main crop. The mid-crop is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9 percent decline from the previous year. These quality issues are contributing to price stabilization despite increasing supply.
• Ghana, the second-largest global cocoa producer, is forecasted to see an 8.3 percent year-on-year production increase in the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons. This growth is supported by favorable weather, though sporadic adverse conditions still pose risks to productivity.
• In contrast, cocoa sectors in Nigeria and Cameroon are facing less favorable conditions. Limited data from these regions suggest that adverse weather may negatively impact yields, further tightening regional supply.
• On the demand side, there is a notable global downturn, with cocoa grinding activity declining in Asia, Europe, and North America. This reduction in demand, coupled with Ghana’s anticipated production boost, may exert downward pressure on global cocoa prices.
• The International Cocoa Organization has significantly revised its estimate of the 2023–2024 global cocoa deficit, now labeling it the largest in over 60 years. Nevertheless, a surplus is projected for the 2024–2025 period.
• Finally, cocoa futures markets remain volatile, reacting to ongoing crop yield updates, quality concerns in key regions like Ivory Coast, and broader economic influences. Major chocolate manufacturers are also adjusting production forecasts in response to fluctuating cocoa prices.

• Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase to 650,000 metric tons for the 2025–26 season, fostering a bearish global price sentiment. However, the Ghana Cocoa Board is struggling with GHS 33 billion in debt, potentially compromising its capacity to support farmers and manage input distribution. This financial strain may threaten the country’s ability to meet its production targets.
• In Ivory Coast, cocoa exports have slowed markedly, with growth dropping to 6.2 percent from last year’s 35 percent. Heavy rainfall has adversely affected the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in low-quality beans and contributing to a downward trend in total production, now estimated at 1.6 million metric tons from over 2 million.
• Nigeria has seen a 29 percent decline in cocoa exports, falling to 14,110 metric tons as of May. This reduction tightens global supply, which could support prices despite broader bearish pressures. Domestic processing initiatives in Nigeria are hindered by weak demand and infrastructural issues.
• Globally, the market faces significant downward pressure from increased production forecasts, notably in Ghana, and rising inventory levels in the United States. Consumer demand is weakening due to economic uncertainty, high prices, and tariff challenges affecting major chocolate producers. While the International Cocoa Organization projects a sharper deficit for the 2023–24 season, it anticipates a surplus for 2024–25, introducing additional complexity to future market expectations.

• Guyana anticipates a cocoa harvest of 650,000 metric tons, marking an 8.3% increase over last season. This growth is attributed to favorable weather and better pod development, though pest control and input shortages may still hinder yields. In Ghana, the Cocoa Board is grappling with severe financial stress, including a debt of CD33 billion, prompting restructuring efforts to sustain farmer support and industry stability.
• The Ivory Coast, the leading global cocoa producer, reported 1,679,000 metric tons shipped between October 2024 and June 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth. Quality issues have intensified due to poor weather, resulting in increased rejection rates of the mid-crop harvest. In response, the government is boosting domestic processing through a new state-owned factory to mitigate market pressures.
• Nigeria is investing in value-added processing and quality improvements to raise the domestic economic value of cocoa. However, challenges persist in promoting internal consumption to reduce dependency on raw exports. The creation of the National Cocoa Management Board reflects a strengthened regulatory approach.
• On the global front, the International Cocoa Organization forecasts a 494,000 metric ton deficit for the 2023–24 season, the largest in over 60 years. A potential surplus may emerge in 2024–25 due to expected production recoveries. Despite this, demand remains weak as high prices and economic uncertainty continue to suppress chocolate consumption, contributing to market volatility.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa producers face a challenging mid-crop season due to cooler-than-average weather, which has slowed pod development and export activity despite some beneficial rainfall. Disease susceptibility is rising, prompting government investment in climate-resilient agriculture. Bean rejection rates have spiked to 6 percent compared to 1 percent during the main season, and the harvest is expected to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons.
• Ghana also anticipates a 3.3 percent shortfall in production. Financial constraints faced by Cocobod, combined with fiscal austerity, have limited access to essential inputs. Unfavorable weather in key regions such as Western North and Ashanti is hampering flowering and pod formation, further dampening the production outlook.
• In contrast, Brazil’s Para region reports a robust productivity rate of 847 kilograms per hectare. This performance is attributed to effective agroforestry, advanced pest control, and widespread use of real-time digital crop monitoring technologies, which are now deployed in over half of the region’s farms.
• Nigeria’s Ondo State is grappling with reputational damage from cocoa adulteration scandals. Authorities have responded with stricter enforcement and quality controls, though exports in April were still down 11 percent year on year.
• In Ecuador, cocoa production is split by climate: excessive rain in Manabi and Esmeraldas has led to flooding and disease risks, while drought conditions in Los Rios and Guayas are straining irrigation and overall crop health. These divergent conditions complicate national production prospects.

• This week's global cocoa market overview spotlights complex dynamics across major producing countries.
• In the Ivory Coast, mid-crop conditions are mixed. While rainfall has been largely supportive, erratic temperatures and increased incidence of pod disease are affecting pod ripening. Export volumes have slowed notably compared to late 2024. In Ghana, production prospects remain strained. Financial limitations at the Cocoa Board have delayed fertilizer distribution, while erratic weather adds further risk. The mid-crop harvest may fall short of initial targets, reflecting deeper economic challenges tied to credit downgrades and fiscal tightening.
• Brazil's cocoa sector, particularly in Pará state, continues to strengthen. With yields averaging 847 kilograms per hectare, a 5% production boost is anticipated through the integration of agroforestry and digital farming technologies. Nigeria is tackling cocoa adulteration in Ondo state to safeguard export quality, amid an 11% year-over-year decline in April cocoa exports, potentially indicating broader structural issues.
• In Ecuador, uneven rainfall patterns are creating regional disparities in cocoa output. While heavy rains in areas like Manabí and Esmeraldas demand increased crop protection efforts, water scarcity in Los Ríos and Goias is heightening reliance on irrigation systems that are not fully operational.
• Overall, the global cocoa market remains sensitive to weather fluctuations, disease prevalence, infrastructure constraints, and shifting financial conditions. As volatility persists, close monitoring of agronomic and market signals is essential. 

This week’s cocoa market update offers a comprehensive overview of production developments and climatic challenges across key producing nations.

In Ivory Coast, cocoa production continues to be affected by erratic weather patterns and declining bean quality. Despite this, the country remains a dominant exporter, with shipments reaching 1.6 million metric tons—a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, mid-crop quality issues are emerging, with up to 6% of beans showing defects.

Ghana faces a 5% reduction in its 2024/25 output forecast, driven by insufficient rainfall and elevated temperatures. The Ghana Cocoa Board is attempting to stabilize the sector through policy efforts, including competitive farm gate pricing, but ongoing climate stress hampers results.

In Ecuador, persistent dryness and lower temperatures are stressing the mid-crop, particularly in Los Rios and Manabí, raising concerns about overall yields.

Nigeria is witnessing renewed interest in cocoa farming, fueled by strong global prices and a weak naira. While production shows signs of recovery, issues like smuggling—estimated at 200,000 tons annually—obscure accurate tracking. Regulatory efforts are underway to improve sustainability and data transparency.

Brazil is expanding its cocoa sector through strategic rural credit initiatives, especially in Pará, and is promoting formal supply chain integration. Events such as the Amazon Cocoa and Chocolate Fair highlight the country’s growing commitment to cocoa development.

Meanwhile, South Sudan is making early progress by distributing cocoa seedlings—10 million planned, with 800,000 already delivered—to improve livelihoods and promote climate resilience.

The episode concludes by emphasizing that each country's ability to adapt to environmental pressures and implement effective policies will shape their future in the evolving global cocoa market.

• Ivory Coast: Cocoa shipments since October 1 have reached 1.6 million metric tons, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, this growth reflects a slowdown compared to the 35% increase seen in December. Concerns over bean quality have intensified during the mid-crop harvest, with up to 6% of truckloads composed of substandard beans—significantly higher than the 1% seen during the main crop. The decline is linked to irregular rainfall, which has adversely affected bean development.
• Ghana: Ghana’s cocoa production forecast has been revised down to 675,500 metric tons, a 5% reduction from previous estimates. This downward adjustment may place upward pressure on global prices due to anticipated supply tightening.
• Global Outlook: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a substantial global cocoa deficit of 441,000 metric tons for the 2023–24 season, primarily due to a 13.1% decline in global production. However, projections for the 2024–25 season indicate a possible surplus of 142,000 metric tons, assuming a 7.8% rise in production, which could weigh on future prices.
• United States: Tariff developments have added volatility. A newly implemented 10% tariff on specific cocoa imports initially pressured prices, but subsequent court rulings have blocked several of these measures, easing New York cocoa contract premiums and leading to a softening of U.S. cocoa futures.
• Weather Conditions: Improved rainfall in West Africa has raised expectations for future harvests, though ongoing drought concerns in Ghana and Ivory Coast continue to pose a threat to production.
• Demand Trends: High cocoa prices and economic headwinds have weighed on major chocolate manufacturers, impacting forecasts and raising costs. Nevertheless, recent cocoa grinding data from North America, Europe, and Asia indicates stronger-than-expected demand, suggesting possible price stabilization if demand remains resilient.

• Ivory Coast: Cocoa export volumes increased by 10.5% to 1.58 million metric tons since the beginning of the season. However, this growth marks a significant slowdown compared to the 35% increase recorded in December. The deceleration, combined with persistent drought across one-third of the region, raises concerns about future supply. Additionally, mid-crop quality has been negatively affected, with 5–6% of beans deemed substandard due to erratic rainfall. The mid-crop yield is expected to fall to 400,000 metric tons, representing a 9% year-over-year decline, contributing to upward pressure on global prices.
• Ghana: Similar to the Ivory Coast, Ghana continues to face production challenges due to drought. Cocobod, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, has revised its 2024/25 harvest forecast downward by 5% to 675,000 metric tons. These reductions are expected to tighten global supply and support current high price levels.
• Nigeria: The Nigerian cocoa sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by favorable market prices and renewed investment. Cocoa exports surged by 606% from NGN 171 billion in 2023 to NGN 1.2 trillion in 2024. Government initiatives such as the establishment of the National Cocoa Management Board and new large-scale plantation projects aim to scale up production and increase processing capacity.
• Global Demand and Price Dynamics: While major chocolate manufacturers such as Barry Callebaut AG and Hershey Co have revised forecasts downward due to high input costs and tariffs, demand remains relatively resilient. Cocoa grindings in North America, Europe, and particularly Asia declined less than expected, providing some support to prices.
• Market Outlook: Despite current supply concerns, the International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season, underpinned by a projected 7.8% rise in global cocoa production. This could contribute to medium-term price easing, depending on how weather patterns and policy developments unfold.

Episode Date: May 18, 2025

Welcome to this week’s global cocoa market summary, brought to you by CropGPT. For comprehensive analysis and data, visit our website where you’ll find full crop health reports, weather archives, pricing dashboards, and earnings call insights.

📍 West Africa: Cocoa Supply Under Pressure

Ivory Coast:

• Mid-crop production is facing difficulties due to delayed rainfall, negatively impacting quality and yield.
• Estimated mid-crop output is 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year.
• Processors are rejecting more beans: 5–6% of truckloads now consist of poor-quality beans, up from 1% during the main crop.
• Exports from Oct 1 to May 11 reached 1.56 million MT, an 11.4% increase YoY — but growth has slowed compared to the 35% pace observed earlier.
• The decline in both quality and output has supported the recent rise in global cocoa prices.

Ghana:

• COCOBOD revised the 2024/25 harvest forecast to 617,500 MT, down 5% from the previous estimate.
• Ongoing production issues add to price volatility, especially as Ghana remains the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.

🌍 Global Supply Trends and Deficit

• The global cocoa deficit for the 2023/24 season is projected at 441,000 MT, the largest in over six decades.
• Global cocoa production fell 13.1% YoY to 4.38 million MT.
• These factors are keeping upward pressure on prices, despite some regional improvements.

📈 Contrasts in Nigeria and Demand Signals

Nigeria:

• Cocoa exports rose 24% YoY to 27,564 MT, injecting a bearish counterweight into the market.

Demand Outlook:

• Cocoa grindings in North America, Europe, and Asia have not declined as much as expected, suggesting resilient consumer demand despite price increases and supply concerns.

📦 Trade & Corporate Reaction

• Companies like Barry Callebaut and Hershey Co. have revised financial forecasts downward, citing concerns over tariffs and potential weakening of consumer demand.

🔮 Looking Ahead: Surplus or Stabilisation?

• The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a shift to a 142,000 MT global surplus in the next cycle, ending four years of deficits.
• A 7.8% increase in production is projected, bringing global output to 4.84 million MT.
• However, the stocks-to-grindings ratio remains historically low at 27, raising continued concerns about long-term supply stability.

🌐 Market Outlook Summary

• A complex global picture is emerging:
  • Supply reductions in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to dominate.
  • Nigeria's export rebound provides some market balance.
  • Demand remains surprisingly firm.
  • The risk of consumer price resistance and policy-driven shifts (e.g., tariffs) looms.

Together, these dynamics shape a volatile yet opportunity-rich environment for cocoa traders and buyers.

📢 For More Insights:

Visit CropGPT for:

• 20 years of crop and weather data
• Field-level disease tracking
• Cocoa price forecasts
• Satellite and ground survey comparisons
• Full earnings call transcripts and analysis

This podcast delivers only a selection of key highlights. For in-depth reporting, please explore our detailed dashboards and reports online.

Episode Date: May 11, 2025

Welcome to this week’s summary of the global cocoa market, powered by CropGPT. This podcast highlights key market developments, while our website offers full reports, long-term data, and in-depth analysis.

🇳🇬 Nigeria: Cocoa Revival Driven by Youth and Price Incentives

• Rising cocoa prices since 2023 have attracted a new generation of young entrepreneurs to cocoa farming in Nigeria.
• Example: Anoge Akwa, who transitioned from a previous career into cocoa farming, reflecting a broader movement in the sector.
• Local farmers have seen their economic fortunes transform dramatically thanks to the price surge.
• Cocoa prices climbed to nearly $11,000/MT in 2024, up sharply from the $2,200–$2,500/MT range in 2022.
• The rally has been driven by reduced output from major exporters like Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Despite Nigeria being the fourth-largest cocoa producer, growth potential is restrained by:

• Smuggling of cocoa beans
• Broader economic challenges, though cocoa exports have cushioned the impact of naira devaluation

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Mid-Crop Outlook Improves

• The Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is benefitting from above-average rains, boosting mid-crop yield forecasts.
• Output is expected to increase through August and September, with strong support from the rainy season (April–November).
• Local conditions (rainfall and temperature) have been ideal, leading to healthy pod development.

📉 Cocoa Tariffs and Corporate Impact

• The recent price spike has triggered concern among major buyers.
• Hershey Co. is actively seeking tariff exemptions in the U.S. to offset rising raw material costs.
  • Without relief, the company estimates up to $100 million in additional costs per quarter in H2 2025.
• Mondelez and Nestlé are also adapting to price volatility by adjusting retail pricing and packaging strategies.

🌍 Macro Trends and Market Strain

• Global cocoa markets remain volatile, with tariff uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy decisions initiated under the Trump administration.
• These tariffs:
  • Vary across cocoa-growing regions
  • Increase operational complexity
  • Threaten consumer demand for discretionary products like chocolate and snacks

📢 For Full Reports and Data:

Visit CropGPT for:

• Crop health dashboards
• 20+ years of weather and yield records
• Cocoa pricing trends
• Smuggling and export flow insights
• Earning call analysis and corporate exposure tracking

Chocolate lovers everywhere have been feeling the pinch — and today we unpack why. Cocoa prices have skyrocketed, production is at its lowest in over a decade, and the traditional cocoa supply chain is under immense strain. In this episode, we explore:

• Why cocoa prices hit a historic high of over $12,900 per ton
• The devastating production drop in West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana
• Major threats: aging trees, swollen shoot virus, and climate change
• Why many cocoa farmers aren't benefiting from high prices
• Brazil’s ambitious rise — from collapse to potential world leader in cocoa
• The risks and rewards of Brazil’s new cocoa mega farms
• Latin America’s growing role and Ecuador’s success story
• How climate resilience and farmer-centric approaches are reshaping cocoa’s future
• Three potential scenarios for the cocoa market through 2030

Key Topics:

• The Cocoa Price Surge: Causes behind the record price increases and their global impact.
• West Africa’s Crisis: Aging farms, disease, and climate threats leading to a major production collapse.
• Brazil’s Comeback: How Brazil is planning to double cocoa output through mega farms and agroforestry.
• Risks of Monoculture: Why genetic diversity matters in large-scale farming.
• Farmer-Centric Innovations: New programs in Colombia and Ghana designed to stabilize incomes and promote sustainability.
• Climate Resilience Efforts: Breeding tougher trees, improving soils, and rethinking farming practices.
• The Big Picture: Managed recovery, structural deficit, or overshoot and bust — where is cocoa headed?

Takeaways:

• The cocoa market is at a crossroads — with massive uncertainty about its future.
• Sustainability, resilience, and empowering farmers will be critical to stabilizing supply.
• Latin America, especially Brazil, may redefine the global cocoa landscape.
• Investment, innovation, and global cooperation are urgently needed to secure chocolate’s future.

This week's episode delivers an in-depth look at shifting cocoa production dynamics, emerging economic challenges, and evolving global demand trends impacting the cocoa industry.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Export Slowdown and Mid Crop Concerns
Cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast increased 11.3% year-over-year to 1,480,000 metric tons — a stark deceleration compared to the 35% surge seen last December. The upcoming mid crop is forecast at 400,000 metric tons, a 9% decline year-over-year, driven by dry weather. Political instability, marked by the exclusion of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam from elections, adds to market risks.

Ghana's Cocoa Production Challenges Deepen
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, has revised its production forecast downward for the second time this season to 670,500 metric tons. The persistent spread of swollen shoot disease, affecting over 40% of productive capacity, underscores the sector’s structural challenges, with replanting efforts hampered by critical funding shortages.

Brazil’s Ambitious Production Expansion
In contrast, Brazil is pursuing aggressive growth. Through Schmidt Agricola’s large-scale, high-density cocoa plantations, Brazil aims to boost production dramatically, with projections of reaching 1.6 million metric tons over the next decade. While promising, risks around genetic uniformity and disease susceptibility remain.

Global Market Overview: Demand Holds, Pressures Mount
Grindings in major regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia saw less-than-expected declines, suggesting steady demand resilience despite elevated cocoa prices. The International Cocoa Organization projects a global surplus, offering slight relief, but market dynamics remain heavily influenced by regional production risks, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Sustainability and Innovation Trends
Efforts like Luker Chocolates’ sustainable initiatives in Colombia highlight how technology-driven, eco-friendly practices may become key to stabilizing global cocoa production and reducing long-term price volatility.

Strategic Implications:

• Supply Volatility:
  Structural production challenges in West Africa, particularly disease outbreaks and political risks, will continue to shape global supply concerns.
• Emerging Producers:
  Brazil’s scale-up could alter traditional market dynamics, creating more competition for West African cocoa exporters over the next decade.
• Demand Shifts:
  Despite price pressure, resilient grindings suggest strong underlying consumer demand, particularly for premium and sustainably sourced chocolate products.
• Sustainability as a Growth Lever:
  Producers investing in sustainable agriculture and technological innovation may gain competitive advantages in an increasingly ESG-focused market environment.

While volume has plateaued over recent decades, the reputation of Venezuelan cocoa remains unmatched. The cocoa is prized by luxury chocolatiers and specialty markets around the globe — commanding prices double the global averages.

60% of the worlds best cocoa varieties come from Venezuela including Porcelana Criollo, Chuao, and Guasare.

Key Themes Discussed:

A Turbulent Production History
Saint Lucia’s cocoa industry has seen dramatic swings—from prominence in the 1700s to sharp declines in recent decades. Production fell significantly from 110 tons in 2009 to just 17 tons in 2018, highlighting persistent volatility.

The Power of Fine Flavor Status
Despite production challenges, Saint Lucia boasts a rare achievement: 100% Fine or Flavour Cocoa classification by the International Cocoa Organization. Only nine countries globally hold this distinction, positioning Saint Lucia’s beans as a prized asset among artisan chocolatiers.

The Terroir and Trinitario Advantage
Unique volcanic soils, tropical climate, and the cultivation of Trinitario beans contribute to Saint Lucia’s exceptional flavor profiles—chocolates imbued with tropical fruit notes, floral undertones, and rich complexity, setting it apart from mass-market varieties.

Hotel Chocolat’s Transformative Investment
The UK chocolatier’s acquisition of the historic Rabot Estate in 2006 marked a turning point. Through its Engaged Ethics program, Hotel Chocolat pays premium prices to farmers, promotes sustainable practices, and deepens the global appreciation of Saint Lucian cocoa through experiences like their eco-resort and London restaurant.

Challenges to Sustainable Growth
Saint Lucia’s cocoa sector faces aging infrastructure, labor shortages, and the risk of younger generations abandoning farming. These issues threaten both production quality and industry longevity unless addressed through modernization and education initiatives.

The Global Niche Strategy
Instead of competing on volume with giants like the Dominican Republic, Saint Lucia focuses on carving a premium niche market in Europe and North America—catering to consumers and artisans who value origin, flavor complexity, and ethical sourcing.

Building a Sustainable Future
Empowering farmers through training programs, promoting environmental sustainability (like shade-grown cocoa and biodiversity conservation), and preserving genetic diversity are critical steps. Maintaining Saint Lucia’s fine-flavor legacy hinges on balancing growth with the protection of its unique agricultural and cultural heritage.

Strategic Implications:

• Premium Market Positioning: By emphasizing quality and terroir, Saint Lucia can command premium prices and build brand loyalty among discerning chocolate makers.
• Sustainability as a Competitive Advantage: Environmental stewardship and community empowerment are increasingly important to global consumers, enhancing Saint Lucia’s market appeal.
• Storytelling Matters: Elevating the narrative around heritage, ethics, and craftsmanship strengthens Saint Lucia’s position in the specialty cocoa sector.

• Examination of why cocoa futures in New York and London are diverging in price
• Analysis of underlying factors: quality differences, currency dynamics, market speculation, and oil-related production costs

Market Differentiation

• New York vs. London Cocoa:
  • New York:
    • Trades premium cocoa sourced from Ghana and Ivory Coast
    • Used for artisanal and luxury chocolate production
    • Futures priced in U.S. dollars
  • London:
    • Predominantly supplied by older, lower-quality beans from Cameroon and Nigeria
    • Suitable for cost-effective milk chocolate production
    • Futures priced in British pounds

Currency Influence

• U.S. dollar strengthened by approximately 14% against the British pound from 2023 to 2025
• Stronger dollar increases international attractiveness of New York’s premium beans
• London’s pound-denominated cocoa becomes less appealing as a result

Speculative Trading and Market Strategies

• Speculators and arbitrageurs contribute to the price divergence
• Arbitrage strategy:
  • Purchase lower-priced cocoa in London
  • Improve quality through re-fermentation
  • Sell in New York for a higher price
• Market speculation intensifies the spread between the two exchanges

Quality and Storage Factors

• High-Quality Deliveries:
  • 85% of cocoa deliveries in New York (2024-2025) meet premium standards
  • Buyers pay an extra premium (up to $800 per ton) for superior quality
• London’s Inventory Challenges:
  • Approximately 340,000 tons of cocoa stored that do not meet premium standards
  • Around 40% of stocks held over three years, facing issues like moisture damage and fat bloom
  • Resulting in a discount of $1,200–$1,500 per ton relative to New York futures

Regional Demand Dynamics

• North America:
  • 18% annual growth in premium chocolate consumption since 2021
  • Increased demand for dark chocolate and bean-to-bar products drives up premium cocoa prices
• Europe:
  • European chocolate makers prioritize cost efficiency due to higher energy costs and subdued consumer spending
  • Preference for milk chocolate produced with lower-grade cocoa

Oil Prices and Production Costs

• Rising oil prices affect production costs, including fertilizer and diesel expenses
• Impact on cocoa-producing countries:
  • Depreciation of national currencies
  • Reduced farmers’ purchasing power and lower cocoa yields

Key Event Highlight: September 2024 Squeeze

• A “squeeze” on New York cocoa futures forced hedge funds with large short positions to cover
• Surge in demand from Asian chocolate makers triggered a price rally of approximately $2,400 per ton

Summary & Implications for the Industry

• The widening price differential is a result of quality stratification, currency fluctuations, and energy-linked costs
• Producers may need to:
  • Adopt quality certification systems
  • Reform futures market practices
  • Invest in renewable energy to combat rising oil costs
• The evolving global demand for premium chocolate presents ongoing challenges and opportunities for both cocoa producers and manufacturers

These show notes capture the critical factors influencing the current cocoa market landscape and provide insight into how these dynamics reflect broader trends in agricultural commodities.

While volume has plateaued over recent decades, the reputation of Venezuelan cocoa remains unmatched. The cocoa is prized by luxury chocolatiers and specialty markets around the globe — commanding prices double the global averages.

60% of the worlds best cocoa varieties come from Venezuela including Porcelana Criollo, Chuao, and Guasare.

• Examination of why cocoa futures in New York and London are diverging in price
• Analysis of underlying factors: quality differences, currency dynamics, market speculation, and oil-related production costs

Market Differentiation

• New York vs. London Cocoa:
  • New York:
    • Trades premium cocoa sourced from Ghana and Ivory Coast
    • Used for artisanal and luxury chocolate production
    • Futures priced in U.S. dollars
  • London:
    • Predominantly supplied by older, lower-quality beans from Cameroon and Nigeria
    • Suitable for cost-effective milk chocolate production
    • Futures priced in British pounds

Currency Influence

• U.S. dollar strengthened by approximately 14% against the British pound from 2023 to 2025
• Stronger dollar increases international attractiveness of New York’s premium beans
• London’s pound-denominated cocoa becomes less appealing as a result

Speculative Trading and Market Strategies

• Speculators and arbitrageurs contribute to the price divergence
• Arbitrage strategy:
  • Purchase lower-priced cocoa in London
  • Improve quality through re-fermentation
  • Sell in New York for a higher price
• Market speculation intensifies the spread between the two exchanges

Quality and Storage Factors

• High-Quality Deliveries:
  • 85% of cocoa deliveries in New York (2024-2025) meet premium standards
  • Buyers pay an extra premium (up to $800 per ton) for superior quality
• London’s Inventory Challenges:
  • Approximately 340,000 tons of cocoa stored that do not meet premium standards
  • Around 40% of stocks held over three years, facing issues like moisture damage and fat bloom
  • Resulting in a discount of $1,200–$1,500 per ton relative to New York futures

Regional Demand Dynamics

• North America:
  • 18% annual growth in premium chocolate consumption since 2021
  • Increased demand for dark chocolate and bean-to-bar products drives up premium cocoa prices
• Europe:
  • European chocolate makers prioritize cost efficiency due to higher energy costs and subdued consumer spending
  • Preference for milk chocolate produced with lower-grade cocoa

Oil Prices and Production Costs

• Rising oil prices affect production costs, including fertilizer and diesel expenses
• Impact on cocoa-producing countries:
  • Depreciation of national currencies
  • Reduced farmers’ purchasing power and lower cocoa yields

Key Event Highlight: September 2024 Squeeze

• A “squeeze” on New York cocoa futures forced hedge funds with large short positions to cover
• Surge in demand from Asian chocolate makers triggered a price rally of approximately $2,400 per ton

Summary & Implications for the Industry

• The widening price differential is a result of quality stratification, currency fluctuations, and energy-linked costs
• Producers may need to:
  • Adopt quality certification systems
  • Reform futures market practices
  • Invest in renewable energy to combat rising oil costs
• The evolving global demand for premium chocolate presents ongoing challenges and opportunities for both cocoa producers and manufacturers

These show notes capture the critical factors influencing the current cocoa market landscape and pro

·       Regional Integration: A 1,028km highway from Abidjan to Lagos aims to strengthen Ecowas cohesion and reconnect West Africa’s economies.

·       Economic Corridor: Construction begins in 2026, backed by international funding. The multi-lane route will ease trade, reduce costs, and potentially support future rail links.

·       Cocoa Boost: Better transport stands to improve cocoa prices, encourage local processing, and enhance the region’s global influence on cocoa markets.

·       Political Signal: Despite recent withdrawals by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the project underscores Ecowas’ resilience and could help lure estranged states back.

·       Risks and Oversight: Corruption, governance issues, and security threats remain challenges. Effective management and environmental care are crucial.

·       Transformative Potential: If successful, the corridor could catalyse a more integrated, prosperous, and stable West Africa—mirroring the EU’s own market-driven integration.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) is pressing ahead with one of its most significant infrastructure initiatives to date: a 1,028km highway running from the Ivorian commercial centre of Abidjan through Ghana, Togo and Benin, and on to Lagos, Nigeria’s economic powerhouse. Set to begin construction in 2026 and slated for completion by 2030, the corridor could transform the region’s economic fortunes, bolster political stability, and even reshape global cocoa markets.

A Regional Bloc Under Strain

Since its founding in 1975, Ecowas has stood as the principal driver of regional co-operation in West Africa, fostering common trade policies, security frameworks, and social development. The bloc traditionally consisted of 15 member states—ranging from Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, to smaller nations such as Togo and The Gambia—reflecting the rich diversity of West Africa’s political, economic, and cultural landscape.

In recent years, however, Ecowas has faced testing challenges. The departures of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger—spurred by a series of military coups—have eroded the bloc’s longstanding image as Africa’s most cohesive regional grouping. These exits, cutting away swathes of territory and millions of inhabitants, have punctured a once-confident institution. Against this backdrop, the Abidjan-Lagos highway assumes a symbolic as well as an economic importance, offering a tangible demonstration of what deeper integration can achieve, even as political headwinds swirl.

The Case for Connectivity

The corridor aims to link major coastal hubs—Abidjan, Accra, Lomé, Cotonou and Lagos—that collectively serve as vital gateways for trade flows into and out of West Africa. By smoothing cross-border logistics and trimming journey times, the highway is expected to reduce transportation costs and mitigate the bureaucratic red tape that has long hampered efficient commerce in the region.

Its potential impact is considerable. The African Development Bank, which has championed the project and financed key technical studies, expects the corridor to be toll-free, multi-lane, and dotted with modern border facilities intended to expedite the transit of goods and passengers. Along the way, upwards of 70,000 jobs could be created during the construction phase, and if forward-looking plans are realised, the road will serve as the spine of a larger economic corridor, with ancillary projects in logistics, agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing.

Proponents say the improved connectivity will benefit West Africa’s economic anchors, such as Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, while also stimulating growth in smaller states like Togo and Benin. By encouraging greater trade volumes, attracting foreign investment, and fostering the development of regional value chains, the project is envisioned as a lever to transform the region from a collection of fragmented markets into a more integrated economic unit.

Risks and Obstacles

Yet the grand ambition is not without risk. Large-scale infrastructure projects in West Africa have historically contended with persistent governance challenges, ranging from corruption and mismanagement to lack of policy continuity during political transitions. Careful project oversight and clear tender processes will be needed if the venture is to remain on track and on budget.

Further uncertainties stem from security considerations. Even with the focus on relatively stable coastal states, West Africa’s security environment is fluid. Spillover effects from unrest in neighbouring regions, smuggling networks, and cross-border criminality could disrupt construction timelines and operational efficiency. Robust collaboration between governments and international partners will be crucial to maintain a secure environment and to ensure that the road delivers on its economic promise rather than becoming another logistical hurdle.

Ecological stewardship will also demand attention. While improved infrastructure can spur development, it can also exacerbate environmental degradation if not managed responsibly. Conscientious planning and adherence to sustainability standards—particularly crucial for the cocoa sector—are paramount. If properly implemented, the corridor could even aid in better monitoring and enforcement of sustainable agricultural practices.

Cocoa: A Commodity in the Spotlight

Among the industries that stand to gain, cocoa is one of the most notable. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana collectively produce the lion’s share of the world’s cocoa, serving as indispensable suppliers to global chocolate manufacturers. Yet for many West African farmers, poor road conditions, limited market access, and costly transportation have long eroded profit margins and inhibited reinvestment in their farms.

By streamlining the route to ports and processing facilities, the corridor could lower transport costs, reduce post-harvest losses, and enable farmers to secure more competitive prices. Over time, this could translate into higher farm-gate prices and better incomes, prompting improved yields, better-quality beans, and enhanced resilience against pests and diseases. Moreover, facilitating smoother transport of cocoa beans will encourage more local value addition—grinding and processing the commodity domestically rather than exporting it raw. That would allow West African producers to capture a greater share of the chocolate value chain, potentially influencing global cocoa pricing dynamics.

Such changes are not merely economic. By improving traceability and oversight, the corridor could assist in meeting rising consumer demands for ethically sourced and environmentally sustainable chocolate. The result may be a more stable and diversified cocoa industry—one that adapts to shifting market expectations while spreading wealth more evenly across the supply chain.

A Catalyst for Regional Reintegration

In many respects, the Abidjan-Lagos highway is an attempt to recreate, within West Africa, something akin to the economic transformation that Europe experienced after establishing a “Common Market.” As a physical embodiment of Ecowas’ integration agenda, it has the potential to solidify commercial linkages, reduce trade barriers, and reinforce the idea of...

Côte d'Ivoire produces 2 million metric tons of cocoa annually, predominantly grown by smallholder farmers in regions like San Pedro and Abidjan. 

However, this lifeline for the country's economy is facing significant headwinds. Over the past 20 years, the country's cocoa yield has declined from a peak of 700kg per hectare in 2000 to just 500kg per hectare in 2022. Climate change, deforestation, pests, and political instability have all contributed to this decline, creating a vicious cycle of reduced yields leading to further deforestation as farmers seek more fertile land.

Other major cocoa producers, such as Ghana, Indonesia, and Ecuador, face their own challenges, but none on the scale seen in Côte d'Ivoire. Ghana, known for its quality cocoa, produces around 883,652 metric tons annually and benefits from strong governmental support through the Ghana Cocoa Board. Indonesia, producing around 659,776 metric tons, struggles with aging trees and competition from other crops. In contrast, Ecuador, with its famous "fine or flavour" cocoa, produces only about 287,476 metric tons but is gaining recognition for its high-quality beans.

Côte d'Ivoire's recent challenges have reached new heights in 2023 and 2024, with poor weather and the outbreak of the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) drastically reducing output. Production has fallen by over 21%, marking an eight-year low. This shortage has caused a global ripple effect, with cocoa prices soaring by 143%—the highest in 40 years. Despite government efforts to stabilize the situation by raising farmgate prices by 50%, the supply shortage is expected to persist, with a forecasted global deficit of 374,000 metric tons for the 2023-24 season.

We also touch on the environmental toll of cocoa farming in Côte d'Ivoire. Deforestation has rapidly expanded cocoa cultivation from 260,000 hectares in the 1960s to over 4.5 million hectares today. Yet, this expansion comes at a cost: soil degradation, increased pests, and a loss of biodiversity are leading to further declines in productivity.

As we look to the future, sustainability and innovation are key. The Ivorian government, alongside international stakeholders, is working to promote more sustainable farming practices, improve infrastructure, and ensure a brighter future for the millions of farmers who depend on cocoa.

This episode it taken from this article

Segment 1: Roots of the Trade

• Overview of cocoa's introduction to Ivory Coast during the French colonial era in the late 1800s.
• The initial planting by French agronomist Louis Tautain and the subsequent adoption by local farmers.

Segment 2: The Colonial Cash Crop

• Rapid growth of the cocoa sector in the early 20th century driven by European and North American demand.
• Development of infrastructure by the colonial administration to support the burgeoning industry.

Segment 3: Independence and Expansion

• Transition to independence in 1960 and the leadership of President Félix Houphouët-Boigny.
• Policies to promote cocoa as a pillar of economic development and the rise of Ivory Coast as a cocoa powerhouse.

Segment 4: Challenges of a New Century

• Addressing the environmental and social impact of expansive cocoa farming practices post-2000.
• Efforts to combat child labor and promote sustainability in the industry.

Segment 5: Economic Realities and Future Prospects

• The recent decline in production, rising prices, and the influence of global market dynamics.
• Government and international efforts to stabilize the sector and improve farmer livelihoods.

Segment 6: The Threat of CSSVD

• The emergence of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and its devastating impact on cocoa yields.
• Strategies to manage and mitigate the disease's effect on the industry.

This episode explores the complex challenges facing the global cocoa market, from declining processing activity in Asia and South America to ongoing production issues in West Africa. We also discuss the rising impact of global trade tensions and unpredictable supply dynamics.

Key Themes Discussed:

Malaysia and Brazil: Declining Cocoa Processing Signals Weak Demand
Malaysia recorded a 15.3% year-on-year decline in cocoa processing during Q1, with output falling to 84,192 metric tons. Brazil mirrored this trend with a 13% decrease in cocoa grindings to 52,135 metric tons. These reductions reflect weakened global cocoa demand, exacerbated by rising trade tensions and the threat of new tariffs.

West Africa: Production Struggles Amid Weather Volatility
Ivory Coast’s mid-crop harvest is forecasted at 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 metric tons last year. Ghana also revised its 2024–25 production forecast downward to 617,500 metric tons, marking a 5% cut. Climate variability and infrastructural weaknesses continue to threaten output stability across the region.

Nigeria: A Rare Bright Spot in Export Growth
Contrary to global trends, Nigeria posted a 27% year-on-year increase in cocoa exports in January, reaching 46,970 metric tons. This growth suggests improved market positioning and operational efficiency, despite broader demand concerns.

Global Supply Outlook: A Surplus Clouded by Past Deficits
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a 142,000 metric ton global surplus for the 2024–25 season, driven by a 7.8% rise in production to 4,840,000 metric tons. However, this follows a massive deficit of 441,000 metric tons in 2023–24, adding further complexity to market sentiment.

Trade Policy Impacts: Tariff Uncertainty Remains High
Recent US trade actions, including temporary tariff suspensions, have stirred uncertainty across cocoa-exporting nations. Key suppliers like Ivory Coast and Ghana remain vulnerable to shifts in US trade policy, which could reshape cocoa supply chains and price structures in the coming months.

Strategic Implications:

• Volatile Market Dynamics: The coexistence of a prior massive deficit with a forecasted surplus highlights extreme supply-side volatility, complicating strategic planning for traders and producers alike.
• Demand Contraction Risk: Falling grindings in Europe and Asia emphasize the risk of declining industrial demand due to persistently high cocoa prices.
• Geopolitical Sensitivities: Trade tensions, especially involving the US and major cocoa-exporting countries, could trigger sudden shifts in supply routes and global price benchmarks.

This episode covers the ongoing pressures in the global cocoa market, including the potential impacts of US tariffs, fluctuating exports, and a forecasted surplus. Key issues around production, tariffs, and demand shifts are shaping the market.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast: Looming US Tariffs and Slowdown in Exports
As the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast faces a precarious situation with the threat of US tariffs potentially increasing export taxes. This scenario could lead to higher cocoa prices, impacting competitiveness and possibly raising costs for end consumers. From October 1 to April 6, exports reached 1,440,000 metric tons, up 11% but down from a 35% increase in December. Mid-crop estimates have also been reduced to 400,000 metric tons from 440,000 metric tons due to dry weather conditions.

Ghana: Output Declines and Stabilizing Prices
Ghana’s production outlook has been adjusted downward by Cocobod, now forecasting a 2024–25 harvest of 617,500 metric tons, down from 650,000 metric tons. This decline may provide some stabilization to cocoa prices, even as a global cocoa surplus is anticipated for the upcoming cocoa year.

Nigeria: Exports Surge Amidst Expanding Global Production
Nigeria saw a 27% rise in cocoa exports in January, reaching 46,970 metric tons. However, as global production forecasts increase, bearish sentiments are growing in the cocoa market. Despite the surge in Nigerian exports, overall production remains volatile due to global conditions.

Global Cocoa Supply: Surplus and Inventory Increases
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024–25 season, the first surplus in four years. Global cocoa production is expected to rise by 7.8% to 4,840,000 metric tons, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, cocoa inventories in the US have rebounded from a 21-year low to a 5.5-month high, providing some relief to supply concerns.

Demand Concerns: Price Hikes and Geopolitical Tensions
Demand for cocoa remains weak as high prices prompt major chocolate manufacturers, like Hershey and Mondelez, to warn of potential price hikes and consider recipe adjustments. The rising cocoa costs, combined with ongoing trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions, add further uncertainty to the market. In addition, a slowdown in cocoa grinding across European and Asian markets reinforces concerns over declining demand.

Strategic Implications:

• Pricing Pressure: US tariffs and global supply increases are likely to put pressure on cocoa prices, making it harder for producers to remain competitive.
• Market Vulnerabilities: Weakened demand, especially in key consumer markets, could offset the benefits of increased production, leading to price volatility.
• Surplus Dynamics: While the projected cocoa surplus may ease supply issues, it could drive down prices if demand doesn’t pick up in line with production growth.

This episode delivers a strategic overview of major developments in the global cocoa market. Structural challenges, climate impacts, and evolving sustainability initiatives are shaping production trends across key producing regions.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast: Severe Mid-Crop Shortfall and Export Limits
Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa output is forecast to decline by 40%, falling to 580,000 metric tons amid prolonged drought and poor pod development. The Coffee and Cocoa Council plans to limit export sales to 1,300,000 metric tons, down from the usual 1,700,000, to avoid overcommitting amid production instability. While port arrivals rose 12%, aging farms and the spread of swollen shoot disease threaten long-term capacity.

Ghana: Output Hits Two-Decade Low Amid Sector Struggles
Cocobod has lowered its 2024–25 production forecast to 617,500 metric tons—the lowest in 20 years—due to disease outbreaks, erratic rainfall, and deteriorating farm conditions. Financial challenges are mounting, with underperforming yields leading to loan defaults. Policymakers are now under pressure to revise local processing restrictions to revitalize the cocoa economy.

Nigeria: Plans for Doubling Production Face Structural Risks
Nigeria targets a sharp increase in cocoa output to 500,000 metric tons by the 2025–26 season, backed by $40.5 million in agribusiness investments. However, smallholder farming dominance, resource gaps, and concerns over unsustainable monocropping present major hurdles. Advocacy for agroforestry is intensifying as a sustainable path forward.

Indonesia & Brazil: Scaling Agroforestry to Build Resilience
Indonesia is encouraging cocoa farmers to diversify crops by integrating bananas, coffee, and pepper to reduce climate risk. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cahua Fund aims to raise $176 million to support small-scale cocoa growers with sustainable farming practices, strengthening sector resilience.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Conflict-Driven Supply Disruptions
Armed conflict continues to destabilize cocoa production and supply chains in the DRC, adding further strain to the global market.

Costa Rica: Sustainable Cocoa Model Gains Momentum
Costa Rica’s donation of agricultural land to indigenous women for artisanal chocolate production highlights a successful blend of conservation, empowerment, and sustainable agriculture.

Strategic Implications:

• Severe Supply Risks: Output declines in West Africa point to growing vulnerabilities in the global cocoa supply chain.
• Agroforestry Leadership: Brazil and Indonesia are advancing models of sustainable cocoa cultivation that could become industry benchmarks.
• Policy Reforms Needed: Financial restructuring and processing policy changes are critical for key producers to weather ongoing challenges.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast: Production Pressures Mount
Ivory Coast’s mid-crop yield is projected at 400,000 metric tons—a 9% decline year-on-year—amid climate volatility and the spread of swollen shoot disease. Export growth slowed to 12%, sharply down from December’s 35% pace. To mitigate risks, the Coffee and Cocoa Council has capped international cocoa sales at 1,300,000 metric tons, down from 1,700,000 metric tons.

Ghana: Output Revisions Signal Supply Tightening
Ghana’s Cocobod has revised its 2024–25 production forecast downward by 5% to 617,500 metric tons. This adjustment continues the trend of declining output from key producers, adding a bullish element to the global price landscape despite broader surplus projections.

Nigeria: Rising Exports Add Bearish Sentiment
Nigeria's cocoa exports surged by 27% year-on-year in January, reaching 46,970 metric tons. This increase strengthens Nigeria’s position in global supply, contributing to downward price pressure even as West African output declines.

Global Dynamics: Volatile Surplus vs. Weakening Demand
A global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons is forecasted for the 2024–25 period, reversing the sharp 441,000 metric ton deficit reported for 2023–24. However, cocoa grindings—a proxy for industrial demand—fell across Europe (-5.3%), Asia (-0.5%), and North America (-1.2%) amid high cocoa price environments.

Costa Rica: Promoting Cocoa Sustainability
In a positive development, the Center for Biological Diversity donated over 40 acres to the Association Commission of Indigenous Women of Talamanca, fostering artisanal chocolate production and sustainable agricultural practices among indigenous communities.

Strategic Implications:

Fragile Global Supply Chain:
Despite surplus forecasts, production challenges in Ivory Coast and Ghana hint at a fragile supply balance, maintaining upside risks to pricing.

Demand Risks Persist:
Sustained high cocoa prices are impacting grindings, suggesting weakening end-market demand that could dampen prices if production stabilizes.

Focus on Sustainable Growth:
Grassroots initiatives like Costa Rica’s cocoa land donation illustrate rising importance of sustainability and biodiversity preservation in global supply chains.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast: Weather Volatility Threatens Midcrop Recovery
Ivory Coast's cocoa production faces mounting risks from inconsistent rainfall and rising temperatures. The mid-crop output is now forecasted at 400,000 metric tons—a 9% decline from the previous year. Export growth slowed to 12% year-on-year from October to March, well below the 35% pace seen in December. Although recent moisture has provided some relief, additional heavy rainfall is crucial in April to stabilize crop yields.

Nigeria: Rising Exports Add Bearish Pressure
Nigeria reported a 27% year-on-year surge in cocoa exports, reaching 46,970 metric tons. This growth positions Nigeria as an increasingly important player in global supply, adding bearish sentiment to cocoa pricing despite broader market volatility.

Ghana: Further Downgrades to Cocoa Production Forecast
Ghana’s Cocobod revised its 2024–25 cocoa harvest forecast downward by 5% to 617,500 metric tons. This continues the trend of declining output, reinforcing concerns over global supply tightness and offering potential support to international cocoa prices.

Brazil: Revitalization Efforts Underway
The CAWA Fund aims to raise R$1 billion to support smallholder cocoa farmers in Bahia and Pará after a nearly 20% drop in production. Improved financial access and agricultural support are critical to reversing Brazil's production setbacks amid persistent credit challenges.

Indonesia: Cocoa Faces Growing Competition
Indonesian cocoa farmers, facing climate challenges and soaring prices, are increasingly shifting to alternative crops such as palm oil. New farmer support programs, including partnerships like Krakakoa, are seeking to rejuvenate cocoa cultivation with high-yield variants and training initiatives.

Strategic Implications:

Mixed Supply Outlook:
While Nigeria's stronger exports contribute to surplus projections, production shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana could tighten the market later in the year.

Demand and Pricing Dynamics:
The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a surplus for the 2024–25 season, but demand-side risks persist. High cocoa prices are beginning to impact consumer consumption trends and chocolate manufacturing costs globally.

Sustainability and Market Stability:
Investment in smallholder support, improved financing, and climate-resilient farming practices will be essential for stabilizing cocoa supply chains in Brazil, Indonesia, and beyond.

Key Themes Discussed:

Brazil’s Severe Drought Impact
Brazil is grappling with its worst drought in over 40 years, severely impacting both cocoa and Arabica coffee production. Green coffee exports fell 1.6% year-on-year in January, while the 2025–26 coffee crop is projected to decline 4.4% to 51.8 million bags—its lowest in three years. Leading merchant Volcafe slashed its Arabica crop forecast by 11 million bags.

Vietnam’s Coffee Sector Under Strain
Vietnam faces a 20% drop in coffee production for the current crop year, with robusta output expected to slip to 27.9 million bags. Coffee exports plunged 17.1% year-on-year, prompting the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association to revise its 2024–25 production estimate downward to 26.5 million bags.

Colombia’s Fragile Recovery
Colombia, the world's second-largest Arabica producer, is rebounding from El Niño-induced droughts. While export volumes are improving, ending stocks are forecast to fall 6.6%, raising concerns over future supply stability.

Ivory Coast’s Cocoa Outlook
Cocoa exports reached 1.36 million metric tons as of February 2025, up 17% year-on-year but signaling a slowdown from December’s pace. Recent rains are expected to support mid-crop prospects, with 2024–25 output projected around 1.8 million metric tons. Anti-smuggling efforts resulted in the seizure of 2,000 metric tons of cocoa at the border.

Ghana’s Revised Cocoa Forecast
Facing persistent weather challenges and crop diseases, Ghana’s Cocobod lowered its 2024–25 cocoa harvest estimate by 5% to 617,500 metric tons. Although farmgate prices have been increased to encourage local production, illegal mining and limited processing capacity remain major hurdles.

Strategic Implications:

Global Coffee Market Tightness:
Major supply reductions from Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia could sustain upward pressure on coffee prices through the 2025–26 season.

Cocoa Supply Vulnerabilities:
Production risks in Ivory Coast and Ghana, despite some rainfall recovery, continue to pose threats to global cocoa supply stability.

Demand-Side Pressures:
High input costs and tighter inventories are reshaping strategies among key chocolate and coffee manufacturers, influencing pricing, recipe formulations, and procurement plans.

Sustainability Challenges:
Climate volatility is underscoring the urgency for investment in crop resilience, sustainable farming practices, and improved market access for producers.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Export Trends
The world's top cocoa producer recorded a 17% year-on-year increase in exports between October and early March, reaching 1,390,000 metric tons. However, growth momentum is slowing compared to the robust 35% rise noted in December.

Ghana’s Production Challenges
The Ghana Cocoa Board has revised its 2024–25 production forecast downward by 5% to 617,500 metric tons, citing adverse weather and crop issues—tightening global supply and offering price support.

Brazil's Expansion Strategy
Brazil is ramping up its cocoa ambitions, targeting the creation of 300,000 jobs and $2.3 billion in cocoa-related revenues by 2030. Key obstacles include credit access, farm productivity, and pest management.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook
A 142,000 metric ton surplus is projected for the 2024–25 season, alongside a 7.8% rise in production. Yet major manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez warn of shrinking demand due to high chocolate prices, with retail costs expected to surge by up to 50%.

Industry Response to High Costs
Hershey is contemplating recipe reformulations, substituting alternative ingredients to offset cocoa price spikes, while companies brace for margin pressures.

Volatility in Cocoa Futures Markets
New York and London cocoa futures are facing heightened volatility, driven by supply concerns, shifting consumer demand, and U.S. Dollar Index movements. Elevated margin requirements are reducing commercial participation, prompting calls for regulatory adjustments.

Inventory Trends
ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in the U.S. have rebounded from 21-year lows, providing some relief but failing to fully offset broader market tensions.

Strategic Implications:

Price Risk:
Despite surplus projections, supply disruptions from Ghana and Ivory Coast could maintain upward price pressure in 2025.

Consumer Demand Risks:
Elevated retail chocolate prices could dampen consumption, especially in mature markets like North America and Europe.

Market Structure Shifts:
Calls for reforms in futures trading, including reduced margin calls and price oscillation limits, could reshape how cocoa markets operate.

Brazil's Reemergence:
If successful, Brazil’s cocoa expansion could reconfigure the competitive landscape by the end of the decade.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Cocoa Sector Overview

• Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, recorded a 17% year-over-year rise in cocoa exports, reaching 1,360,000 metric tons between October 1, 2024, and February 23, 2025.
• However, export growth is decelerating, and the production forecast for the 2024–25 season remains unchanged from the previous year’s underwhelming output, primarily due to unfavorable weather and crop conditions.
• Recent rains may benefit the upcoming mid-crop, but overall production conditions remain a concern.
• Cocoa smuggling poses additional risks, with 2,000 metric tons of falsely declared cocoa seized recently. Authorities are working to curb this trend as part of broader agricultural diversification initiatives.

Ghana’s Downward Production Revision

• Ghana’s Cocoa Board has lowered its 2024–25 cocoa harvest forecast by 5% to 617,500 metric tons, citing adverse weather and crop yield challenges.
• This revision intensifies upward pressure on global cocoa prices, following a 23-year low production year in 2023–24.

Nigeria’s Cocoa Sector Expansion

• Nigeria’s cocoa sector is experiencing strong growth. Domestic cocoa prices surged by over 700% in 2024, while exports rose by 27% in January 2025, although gains were tempered by a strong U.S. dollar.
• Nigeria is aggressively pushing agricultural diversification, bolstered by a $40.5 million investment from British International Investment and JohnVents Group, aimed at improving production sustainability.
• However, the country continues to export primarily raw beans, missing significant value-add opportunities.

Global Cocoa Supply and Demand Challenges

• Global cocoa grinding activity has declined across Europe, Asia, and North America, reaching multi-year lows due to economic pressures and high cocoa prices.
• Major chocolate manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez are adjusting cocoa usage strategies in response to cost pressures and shifting consumer preferences.

Cocoa Deficit Outlook

• The International Cocoa Organization has substantially increased its deficit projection for the 2023–24 season, marking the largest shortfall in over sixty years.
• Tight supply conditions and limited inventory replenishment continue to fuel cocoa market volatility.

Strategic Implications:

Ongoing Price Volatility

• Currency fluctuations, particularly the strong U.S. dollar, and declining grindings may temper short-term demand but are unlikely to ease underlying supply concerns in 2025.

Focus on Value Addition

• Countries like Nigeria face opportunities to expand into cocoa processing to capture greater economic value.

Corporate Adaptation

• Chocolate manufacturers are adapting recipes and portfolio strategies to maintain profitability amid record-high cocoa costs.

Agricultural Diversification and Investment

• Agricultural investments and initiatives promoting diversification in cocoa-producing nations will be critical for stabilizing future supply.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Cocoa Export Trends

• Ivory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, recording 20% year-over-year growth, a notable decline from the 35% rise reported in December 2024.
• Since October, 1,340,000 metric tons of cocoa have been shipped, while global inventory tightening continues to support prices despite softening demand signals.

Weather Conditions and Yield Prospects

• Central regions in Ivory Coast have benefited from favorable rainfall, improving yield prospects for the upcoming mid-crop season.
• Nevertheless, dry conditions and persistent Harmattan winds remain a threat to cocoa tree health.
• Production forecasts for 2024–25 have been raised to 2.2 million metric tons, but weather-related risks continue to loom.

Ghana’s Cocoa Sector Challenges

• Ghana’s Cocoa Board revised its 2024–25 production estimate downward to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000 metric tons.
• This follows a 23-year low harvest in 2023–24 at just 425,000 metric tons, driven by severe weather and widespread crop disease.

Global Cocoa Market Volatility

• Strengthening of the British pound and persistent high cocoa prices have led manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez to reformulate products and prepare for demand adjustments.
• The International Cocoa Organization has raised the global cocoa deficit forecast for 2023–24 to 478,000 metric tons — the largest supply gap in over six decades.

Cocoa Liquor Market Growth Outlook

• The cocoa liquor market is projected to expand from USD 23.4 billion in 2023 to USD 38.7 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 5.3%.
• North America’s demand surged by 30.2%, fueled by a growing appetite for premium, antioxidant-rich cocoa products across food, bakery, and cosmetics sectors.

Strategic Implications:

Ongoing Supply Tightness

• Adverse weather, crop diseases, and logistical challenges are expected to maintain upward pressure on cocoa prices throughout 2025.

Consumer Demand Shift Toward Premium Products

• Rising interest in premium cocoa applications continues to drive innovation and demand across multiple sectors.

Manufacturer Strategy Shifts

• Recipe modifications, cost management efforts, and cautious demand outlooks are becoming critical strategies for chocolate producers.

Macro-Economic Pressures

• Currency fluctuations, particularly in the British pound and U.S. dollar, are amplifying cocoa market volatility and influencing global trade flows.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Cocoa Export Momentum Slows Amid Weather Stress

• Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments reached 1.32 million metric tons by February 9, signaling a slowdown from the robust early season surge.
• While the national production forecast for 2024–25 was raised to between 2.1 and 2.2 million metric tons, insufficient rainfall and tree regeneration issues present significant downside risks.

Ghana’s Revised Outlook Highlights Persistent Structural Challenges

• Ghana’s Cocoa Board downgraded its 2024–25 production forecast to 650,000 metric tons from an earlier 700,000 estimate, reflecting continued impacts from adverse weather and crop diseases.
• Following a 23-year low in the previous harvest, maintaining cocoa output remains a formidable challenge for Ghana’s agricultural sector.

International Cooperation and Regional Initiatives to Strengthen Cocoa Resilience

• Guyana is partnering with Brazil to leverage advanced agricultural technologies aimed at enhancing cocoa yields and bolstering disease resistance.
• Malaysia has launched government incentives to expand domestic cocoa cultivation and strengthen its competitive positioning in global markets, capitalizing on rising international cocoa prices.

Sharp Surge in Cocoa Prices Reflects Deepening Global Supply Concerns

• Cocoa prices have skyrocketed, reaching $10,716 per metric ton in early 2024, compared to $2,540 in 2022.
• Tightening inventories and erratic production trends in West Africa underline the fragility of the global supply chain.

Emerging Signs of Demand Softening

• Declines in global cocoa grindings hint at emerging demand-side pressures, potentially altering future market balance and influencing price volatility in the second half of 2025.

Strategic Implications:

Structural Supply Risks Remain Elevated

• Persistent climatic stress, inadequate replanting, and weak crop regeneration in key producing regions continue to fuel global supply deficits.

Technology and Policy as Critical Mitigation Tools

• International cooperation initiatives, such as Brazil-Guyana agricultural partnerships, highlight the growing importance of innovation in securing long-term cocoa supplies.

Potential Demand Erosion

• While tight supply supports high prices, slowing grindings suggest that exceptionally elevated costs may gradually curb consumption, especially in price-sensitive markets.

Global Market Rebalancing Efforts

• New entrants like Malaysia are accelerating domestic expansion efforts, but will need time to materially impact the overall global supply picture.

Listen to this episode for:

• A sharp analysis of supply vulnerabilities facing Ivory Coast, Ghana, and global cocoa production
• Insights into how international partnerships and government policies aim to stabilize future cocoa markets
• Strategic outlooks for investors, traders, and chocolate manufacturers navigating the world's tightening cocoa supply chain

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Production Outlook Improves but Export Growth Slows

• Recent rains have stimulated reflowering in Ivory Coast’s cocoa trees, boosting production prospects.
• Exports rose by 22% year-on-year to 1.29 million metric tons, although this marks a slowdown from December’s 35% surge.
• The 2024–25 production forecast has been revised upward to a range of 2.1–2.2 million metric tons, from an earlier estimate of 2.0 million tons.

Mixed Crop Conditions in Ghana Lead to Further Downgrades

• Ghana’s cocoa sector, despite some recent rainfall, continues to struggle with Harmattan-induced crop stress.
• The 2024–25 production forecast has been cut to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000, following a dramatic drop in the 2023–24 harvest to a 23-year low of 425,000 metric tons.

Nigeria’s Export Surge Could Influence Short-Term Pricing

• Nigeria recorded an 87% year-on-year jump in cocoa exports in December, reaching 46,696 metric tons.
• As the world’s sixth-largest cocoa producer, Nigeria’s strengthening export performance may introduce some downward pressure on global prices amid widespread supply tightness.

Severe Global Cocoa Deficit and Tightened Stockpiles

• The International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a 478,000 metric ton global cocoa deficit for 2023–24, a sharper shortfall than previously anticipated.
• ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in the U.S. have fallen to a 21-year low, intensifying supply scarcity concerns.

Chocolate Giants Adjust Strategies Amid Rising Costs

• Hershey is seeking regulatory approval to surpass standard futures trading limits, aiming to procure over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa to secure supply.
• Both Hershey and Mondelez International are experiencing profitability pressures, prompting recipe reformulations and revised earnings forecasts to manage soaring input costs.

Strategic Implications:

Persistent Supply Chain Stress

• Weather disruptions, disease pressures, and declining stockpiles are converging to create sustained volatility in global cocoa markets.

Rising Corporate Adaptation Costs

• Major chocolate manufacturers are actively reshaping products and pricing strategies to navigate the sharp rise in cocoa costs.

Short-Term Relief from Nigeria Insufficient

• While Nigeria’s export surge provides temporary market support, structural deficits in Ivory Coast and Ghana ensure that broader supply concerns remain elevated.

Elevated Market Volatility

• Supply-driven price increases combined with potential demand erosion could create unstable trading conditions well into the second half of 2025

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Export Growth Slows Amid Harsh Harmattan Conditions

• Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports rose 24% year-on-year to 1.24 million metric tons, but the growth rate slowed from last month's 35% surge.
• Severe Harmattan winds—the driest in six years—are stressing trees, with visible signs such as yellowing leaves and withering pods, threatening future harvests.

Mixed Production Signals from Ivory Coast and Ghana

• Le Conseil Café-Cacao revised Ivory Coast’s 2024–25 production forecast upward to 2.1–2.2 million metric tons, up from a prior 2.0 million ton estimate.
• In contrast, Ghana—the world's second-largest cocoa producer—lowered its 2024–25 production forecast to 650,000 metric tons from 700,000, after recording a 23-year low harvest of 425,000 metric tons last season.

Nigeria’s Cocoa Export Surge Offers Temporary Relief

• Nigeria posted an 87% year-on-year increase in cocoa exports in December, reaching 46,696 metric tons.
• While significant, this growth alone is unlikely to offset the structural supply tightness emerging from West Africa's dominant producers.

Demand Side Pressures Emerge as Prices Rise

• European Q4 cocoa grindings fell 5.3% year-on-year to 331,153 metric tons—the lowest in over four years—highlighting demand erosion at elevated price levels.
• North American grindings also declined by 1.2%, signaling weakening global consumption amid sustained price pressures.

Severe Global Cocoa Deficit and Stockpile Collapse

• Global cocoa stockpiles fell 36% year-on-year to 1.041 million metric tons at the end of the 2023–24 season.
• The cocoa deficit widened to a record 478,000 metric tons, according to the International Cocoa Organization.
• Hershey and other major chocolate companies are seeking Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approvals to procure cocoa through ICE futures, highlighting the acute nature of supply shortages.

Strategic Implications:

Tightening Global Supply Chain

• Continued adverse weather, disease outbreaks, and logistical challenges are straining available cocoa supplies and driving sustained price volatility.

Potential for Prolonged Price Spikes

• As inventories collapse and deficits widen, cocoa prices may experience sharp rallies, impacting chocolate manufacturers and consumers globally.

Structural Shifts in Producer Dynamics

• Nigeria’s rising export profile hints at longer-term shifts, but West African dominance remains central to global supply—and currently highly vulnerable.

Demand Erosion Risks

• High cocoa prices are beginning to depress grinding and consumption, which could lead to softer demand growth if price pressures persist throughout 2025.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Surge Despite Weather Challenges

• Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports rose to 1.2 million metric tons, marking a 26% year-on-year increase.
• However, this growth slowed from the prior month’s 35% surge, as trees show signs of severe stress from the driest Harmattan winds in six years.

Ghana's Production Collapse and Financial Crisis

• Ghana’s cocoa board lowered its 2024–25 production forecast to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000, following a 23-year low harvest of 425,000 metric tons.
• The production collapse triggered serious financial repercussions, including a default on an $800 million cocoa purchase loan and delays in deliveries shifting 370,000 metric tons into the next season.

Nigeria's Export Growth Offers Limited Relief

• Nigeria's cocoa exports rose 35% year-on-year to 38,015 metric tons as of November 2024, reinforcing its position as the world’s sixth-largest producer.
• This growth provides some downward pressure on cocoa prices, but remains insufficient to offset broader global supply deficits.

Global Supply Constraints Meet Demand Destruction

• Global cocoa inventories have plummeted to a 21-year low, exacerbated by lower-than-expected exports from major players like Ivory Coast.
• Meanwhile, grindings are falling in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling demand destruction as soaring prices erode consumption levels.

Strategic Implications:

Tightening Supply Outlook

• Severe crop stress, supply shortfalls, and financial instability point to a protracted period of supply-side tightness.

Persistent Price Volatility Ahead

• With supply constrained and demand weakening, cocoa prices are expected to remain highly volatile through 2025.

Stockpiling and Supply Security Measures

• Major chocolate companies, notably Hershey Co., are aggressively securing cocoa futures to manage anticipated shortages.

Emerging Shifts in Market Dynamics

• As traditional producers face deeper structural challenges, emerging players like Nigeria could gradually assume greater relevance in global supply chains.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Production Adjustments and Smuggling Risks

• Ivory Coast has revised its cocoa production forecast upward to between 2.1 and 2.2 million metric tons, responding to shifting environmental and economic pressures.
• However, crop quality is under strain from heavy rainfall, flooding, and heightened disease risk.
• Cocoa smuggling to Guinea and Liberia has surged, with an estimated 50,000–75,000 metric tons illegally exported since the start of the season, distorting local pricing and threatening global supply chain stability.

Ghana’s Production Setbacks

• Ghana’s Cocoa Board has cut its 2024–25 production forecast to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000, citing poor weather and widespread disease.
• The country is expected to record its lowest harvest in 23 years, impacting regional economic stability and global supply balance.

Nigeria’s Export Surge Offers a Stabilizing Influence

• Nigeria’s cocoa exports rose by 35% year-on-year in November, reaching 38,015 metric tons.
• Despite environmental challenges like Harmattan winds, the increase provides a partial counterbalance to broader West African production declines.

Brazil’s Cocoa Processing Decline Reflects Demand Erosion

• Brazil’s cocoa processing dropped 5.5% year-on-year to 59,589 metric tons in the latest quarter, highlighting early signs that elevated cocoa prices are beginning to curb global consumption.

Historic Supply Deficit and Tightening Global Stocks

• The International Cocoa Organization has revised its 2023–24 global cocoa deficit estimate upward to 478,000 metric tons—the largest on record.
• Global cocoa production is projected to fall 13.1% year-on-year, while global stockpiles have plunged to their lowest levels in two decades.
• Export bottlenecks, particularly from Ivory Coast, are compounding supply tightness.

Strategic Implications:

Deepening Supply Chain Risks

• Smuggling, crop disease, and adverse weather continue to strain cocoa supply chains, exacerbating the current global deficit.

Sustained Price Volatility

• With consumption beginning to slow but supply pressures intensifying, cocoa prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile into 2025.

Inventory Management Pressures

• Major chocolate companies, including Hershey, are aggressively securing cocoa through futures contracts to manage supply risk, placing additional stress on already shrinking certified cocoa stocks.

Structural Reforms Needed

• West Africa’s ongoing production and regulatory challenges signal an urgent need for investment in sustainability, traceability, and crop resilience programs

Key Themes Discussed:

Ghana’s Cocoa Sector Under Pressure

• Cocoa prices in Ghana surged by 73.4% in 2024, fueled by tightening global supply and adverse weather conditions, including El Niño impacts.
• Despite higher prices, inefficiencies at the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) and local market challenges have restricted actual income gains for farmers.

Compliance and Traceability Challenges with EUDR

• The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) mandates deforestation-free and fully traceable cocoa, intensifying compliance demands on Ghanaian producers.
• Financial constraints hinder the full implementation of the National Cocoa Management System, while election-related political instability further complicates cocoa marketing and payment systems.

Ivory Coast Faces Similar Struggles

• In Ivory Coast, El Niño has similarly dampened cocoa yields, contributing to global price spikes.
• However, systemic local issues continue to dilute the benefit of high prices for farmers.
• Ivory Coast producers also face mounting pressure to comply with EUDR traceability and environmental conservation standards.

EU Regulation to Reshape Global Cocoa Supply Chains

• The EUDR is set to fundamentally alter cocoa trading dynamics by 2025, restricting non-compliant cocoa from entering Europe and tightening global supply.
• Elevated compliance costs and logistical challenges are expected to sustain higher cocoa prices in the medium term.

Global Cocoa Market Volatility and Stockpiling Trends

• By December 2024, cocoa emerged as the best-performing commodity of the year, driven by tightening supplies and regulatory uncertainty.
• Major chocolate manufacturers like Hershey are actively stockpiling cocoa to secure future supply, fueling concerns about depletion of ICE-certified cocoa stocks and tightening market liquidity.

Strategic Implications:

Supply Chain Reform Acceleration:

• EUDR compliance pressures are pushing cocoa-producing nations to adopt more sustainable, traceable farming practices, reshaping global trade patterns.

Persistent Price Volatility:

• Adverse weather conditions and regulatory shifts suggest cocoa prices will remain volatile well into 2025.

Market Liquidity Risks:

• Strategic stockpiling by large companies may strain certified cocoa inventories, increasing risks of price spikes and delivery challenges on futures markets.

Structural Industry Shifts:

• The intersection of climate, compliance, and corporate strategy is redefining the global cocoa market’s operational framework, with long-term impacts on farmer livelihoods, trade flows, and consumer prices.

Listen to this episode for:

• A focused update on critical supply and regulatory risks in the cocoa market
• Key talking points for chocolate manufacturers, investors, and policy analysts
• Early insights into how environmental compliance and strategic stockpiling are reshaping global cocoa trading

Key Themes Discussed:

Port Arrivals vs. Quality Risk in Ivory Coast

• Cocoa port arrivals in Ivory Coast reached 895,000 metric tons by mid-December, a 32.8% year-on-year increase, though still 15% below 2022 levels.
• The dry Harmattan winds and insufficient rainfall threaten bean quality, particularly in major growing regions like Daloa, Yamoussoukro, and Bongouanou.

Harvest Outlook Divergence

• While areas like Soubré and Agboville are benefiting from better rains, market concerns center on a potentially early end to the main crop, reducing arrivals by February and March.

Grinding Activity and Logistics Bottlenecks

• Cocoa grinding surged 16.1% year-on-year in November, reaching 60,694 metric tons.
• Poor road infrastructure and congestion, especially at San Pedro Port, are raising fears of supply gaps and contractual defaults.

Ghana’s Structural Reforms Amid Financial Pressures

• Under President John Mahama, Cocobod is targeting leaner operations and greater private sector involvement.
• Reliance on multinational exporters like Cargill and Barry Callebaut has intensified, endangering the survival of local buying companies.

Production Risks and Price Surge

• Ghana’s production forecast for 2024–25 has been cut by 5% to 617,500 tons, driven by disease outbreaks and weather adversities.
• Meanwhile, global cocoa futures breached $12,000 per ton, reflecting mounting supply concerns but offering a silver lining for farmer incomes.

Peru’s Expanding Export Footprint

• Peru exported 287,466 kilograms of cocoa husks from January to November 2024, generating $17.11 million in revenue.
• The United States remains Peru’s largest buyer, followed by Chile, Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico, highlighting Peru’s rising stature in specialty cocoa markets.

Strategic Implications:

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities:

• Weather volatility and infrastructure weaknesses are compounding risks across West Africa’s cocoa supply chain.

Price Volatility Outlook:

• Elevated futures prices may persist if crop quality deterioration and logistical challenges deepen into February and March 2025.

Structural Overhauls in Ghana:

• Cocobod’s privatization and cost-cutting efforts, if successful, could reposition Ghana as a more efficient producer in the mid-term.

Export Market Diversification:

• Peru’s steady rise highlights growing opportunities in Latin America, especially as global buyers seek to diversify sourcing beyond West Africa.

Listen to this episode for:

• A sharp, insightful update on key developments affecting cocoa supply and pricing
• Strategic points for traders, chocolate manufacturers, and policymakers
• Early indicators of 2025's potential supply risks and investment opportunities in cocoa