Topics covered: - Saudi East-West pipeline outage and the squeeze on Gulf exports - More than 10M b/d of Gulf production reportedly shut in - U.S. SPR at 285M barrels, inside operational minimum range - Global oil inventories down ~400M barrels in 2026 - Diesel crack spreads near record highs - Fed's 25 bps hike and the demand destruction ceiling - Brent support near $100, resistance near $110, $118 spike scenario - Henry Hub near $2.90 while TTF is near $27 and JKM in high $28s - U.S. LNG export bottleneck and the midstream infrastructure opportunity - Europe's price crisis vs. shortage crisis - OPEC+ quota irrelevance and stranded spare capacity - CRE implications: logistics, data center power, industrial land near LNG and pipeline corridors Data is directional as of mid-September 2026. Fast-moving situation.

We look at why the asset class is working, why you can't build more of it, and what that means for capital allocators in late 2026. Key data points: - Small-bay vacancy around 4% vs. 7.5% for larger industrial - Sub-50K SF buildings trade at a 36% pricing premium - 80% of industrial leasing is for spaces under 50K SF - Only 7% of new construction is under 50K SF - Pipeline down 61% from 2022 peak - 83% of existing small-bay stock built before 2000 - Multifamily: Austin -2.8%, Denver -2%, Tampa -1.8%, Phoenix -1.6% YoY

Strongest year-over-year rent growth is coming from gateway and Midwest markets: San Francisco +6.1%, New York City +5.3%, Kansas City +3.0%, Chicago +2.6%.

Sun Belt markets are still fighting through oversupply: Austin -2.8%, Denver -2.0%, Tampa -1.8%, Houston -1.7%, Phoenix -1.6%.

The key differentiator is lease-up inventory. Nationally, units in lease-up fell from a 1.4M peak in early 2025 to 1.2M. Markets with minimal new supply are tightening fast: Detroit 2.1%, Baltimore 2.4%, Chicago 2.5%, San Francisco 3.0% lease-up share.

High lease-up markets remain under pressure: Charlotte 11.6%, Austin 11%, Phoenix 9.8%.

National occupancy is holding at 94.2%. Austin's lease-up share dropped from 18.3% in mid-2025 to roughly 11% in August 2026 as the supply wave burns off.

The recovery is already happening. It is just not happening evenly.

173 DFW properties have debt maturing this year. Owners who refinanced or bought at 3-4% rates are now facing 7-8% refi rates. The cash flow math breaks for many. Over $2 billion in multifamily debt matures in the second half of 2026 alone. 

Lenders are getting selective about which assets they'll finance. Some owners are selling at 15-20% discounts to 2022 valuations. Some are doing recaps. Some are trying to extend, but the window is closing fast. This is the real test: which operators have the staying power? This is the moment.

Supply and demand just met for the first time since 2021. Supply peaked at 44K units in 2024, dropped to 31K in 2025, projected at 21-23K in 2026. Down 50% from peak. H1 2026, DFW absorbed 25K units. Q2 alone absorbed 12K while only 6K delivered. Why? Population growth. 100K new residents last year. 339 per day. 41-50K jobs annually. At equilibrium around 23K units per year, the dynamic flips. Occupancy hit 93.8%, up 60 bps. Rents still down 2.6% YoY but turned positive quarter-over-quarter. Full-year rent growth projected at 1.8%. Cap rates averaging 5.25%. Class A at 4-5.2%, Class B at 5.5-6.3%, Class C at 6.5-7.5%. Clear bifurcation. Transaction volume recovering. Q2 sales hit 2.27billion.The risk is the maturity wall. 2 billion-plus in multifamily debt due in H2 2026 alone. Owners facing refinancings at 7-8% when they bought at 3-4%. Some won't work. Assets get recapitalized or sold.

The core demand story is sound. DFW adds 100K people per year. Rent versus buy favors renting. The play is bifurcated. Core trophy Class A in Uptown, Oak Lawn, Park Cities attracts capital. Value-add in Class B/C suburbs at 6.5-7.5% cap rates spreads if vacancy tightens and rents climb to 2-3% growth in 2027. DFW is a template for market rebalancing. The maturity wall creates opportunity. Assets in stress get picked up by sponsors with capital. It'll be a repricing, not a bloodbath. Markets that add population and jobs can absorb supply. DFW waited. Now they're on the other side.

That's more electricity than Germany consumes in a year. And 77% of the 66 gigawatt North American construction pipeline is shifting to frontier markets: Texas, Ohio, Louisiana, the Carolinas. Why? Power. Grid interconnection queues in traditional hubs like Northern Virginia stretch 4-6 years. Hyperscalers can't wait. So they're moving to markets where they can generate power themselves. Behind-the-meter gas turbines, solar arrays, small modular reactors. Texas alone is building toward 26 GW of capacity. West Texas especially becomes the center of the AI economy. 95% of the North American pipeline is already pre-leased before delivery. Hyperscalers are locking down capacity for 2028 and 2029 because supply is non-existent. Vacancy is one percent. And they're doing it because capex spending hit $660 billion in 2026, triple what it was a few years ago. The spike is AI. These companies need compute immediately. 

Europe is reordering away from Frankfurt and Amsterdam. Latin America is explosive. Querétaro, Mexico up 450% in a single year. Asia shifting toward Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia. Middle East building 13.8 GW in planned pipeline. The risk: 40% of projects face delays from power approval or permitting issues. You can have the tenant and the site but you're waiting years for grid interconnection or transformer availability. But demand keeps accelerating. Data center power consumption goes from 415 terawatt-hours now to 945 by 2030. Data centers alone could represent 14% of total U.S. power demand by 2030. The investment thesis is simple: frontier markets with power. Land with generation potential in West Texas, Ohio, the Carolinas. That's the real estate goldmine this decade. Power-first site selection wins.

The largest tenant's lease expires before the loan matures. That's a refinancing calculation nobody sees until it's too late. This episode breaks down the Trepp data on 46% of suburban LA office balances sitting on a lease expiration calendar. When Activision leaves 5454 Beethoven Street one month before the $33M loan matures, or when Princess Cruises fully exits Valencia properties, the refinance models that looked solid three months earlier suddenly collapse. Urban office already taught us this lesson. Wilshire Courtyard, One California Plaza, EY Plaza all show what happens when tenant exits precede refinancing deadlines. Suburban office hasn't repriced this risk yet because occupancy metrics still look healthy at 93% median. 46% of the suburban book is on borrowed time. Over the next 24 months, as renewal decisions roll in, watch for a wave of suburban office loans moving into special servicing. Different cause from urban. Same outcome.

What happened: 
• Core retail sales fell 0.2% in July, the first monthly decline of 2026. 
• Online spending dropped 2.3%, the largest monthly decline since January 2025. 
• Apparel sales rose 1.9% and off-price retailers signed 100+ leases totaling roughly 3M SF over the past 12 months. 
• Dollar Tree traffic climbed 4.8% year over year in July. Dollar General traffic rose 1.9%. 
• On-time rent payments for independently owned units hit 83.2% in August, the strongest annual gain since May 2023. 
• The full-payment forecast reached 95.7%. Multifamily led the rebound at 82.5% on-time payments. 

What it means: 
• Renters are paying rent first, then cutting discretionary spending. 
• The consumer is not broke. The consumer is prioritizing. 
• Landlords are not underwriting a payment crisis. They are underwriting a household budget reshuffle. 
• Capital will flow to the assets households protect when budgets tighten: workforce housing, grocery-anchored retail, and discount retail. 

The takeaway: 
• The things households cut get repriced first. The things they protect keep pricing power. 

The question is whether your portfolio is on the right side of the reroute.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro & Why Tait Is Built Different
 01:21 Cam on the Throwback Dynamic
 02:35 Tait Unpacks the Turbine Origin Story
 03:26 The Macro: "Crashing Up," Fed Chaos, and the Tale of Two Economies
 06:37 The Three Pillars: CRE, Private Credit, and Waypoint Energy
 09:16 Why a Diversified Menu Beats a Single Asset Class
 12:02 The Five Core Values That Run the Firm
 16:20 "Keep AI Off the Customer"
 18:22 Natural Gas, Data Centers, and the Next Energy Play
 19:00 The Oil & Gas Tax Hack Most Investors Miss
 20:17 The Colorado Shareholder Event Invite
 20:50 Tait's Final Words & See You in the Room

Resources

• Free Oil & Gas Tax Guide: turbinecap.com/ebook
• Turbine Capital: turbinecap.com
• See Tait speak live at our event

The goal was to push down long-term yields which had hit 5.34% on the 30-year, highest since 2007. For about 24 hours, yields dropped roughly 10 basis points. Then Thursday morning, the entire move reversed. The 30-year climbed back above 5.24%. The bond market looked at the Treasury's announcement, did the math, and decided the structural forces are bigger than the intervention. The national debt just crossed $40 trillion. Interest payments in the first ten months of fiscal year 2026 hit $963 billion, now the second-largest line item in the federal budget, behind only Social Security. The Treasury is not reducing debt with these buybacks. They are buying back old, illiquid long bonds and replacing them with new short-term bills. That is debt management, not debt reduction. 

For CRE borrowers facing the $875 billion maturity wall, the message is clear: do not underwrite to a rate environment that the Treasury Secretary cannot engineer. The 10-year at 4.70% and the 30-year above 5.24% is the environment. Not a temporary headwind. The environment. Cap rate compression is off the table. Anyone underwriting exit assumptions that depend on sustained yield declines is gambling with someone else's money. But assets that generate observable, durable income regardless of where yields settle, those are the assets institutional capital is concentrating into. The Treasury tried to flex. The bond market flexed back within 24 hours. Underwrite to the conditions that exist, not the ones that make your pro forma look pretty.

Meanwhile, Texas Class C multifamily is unraveling due to borrower misconduct, deteriorating conditions, and a looming refinancing wave. Same asset class. Two completely different realities. And both of them are about to punish anyone who thinks there is a national rental trend. When you see Class C distress in Texas, you are not looking at a market cycle bottom. You are looking at a sponsor failure. The opportunity is not buying the note at a discount. The opportunity is replacing the sponsor, injecting the CapEx, and fixing the operations. The asset is probably fine. The operator was the problem. In Manhattan, five thousand dollar rents with listings down 39% is not a rent bubble. It is a supply desert. You cannot build in Manhattan in any meaningful way. So landlords have pricing power that Sun Belt operators can only dream about. The rent growth is not because the economy is booming. It is because the apartment next door does not exist.

Supply-constrained gateway markets are seeing rent reacceleration. Oversupplied Sun Belt markets are seeing distress that looks like a cycle but is actually bad pro formas meeting reality. If you are an investor, you need to underwrite the sponsor harder than the building. In Texas, a beautiful Class C complex at a steep discount might just be a litigation and CapEx trap. In Manhattan, a boring old building with a rent roll might be the best-performing asset in your portfolio. The question is simple. Are you in a market where supply is constrained by dirt and democracy? Or are you in a market where your own spreadsheet was the fraud? The data does not lie. It just requires you to look at the local supply pipeline, not the national headlines. 

Manhattan has no pipeline. Texas has a pipeline that was built on spreadsheets that assumed rainbows and permanent refi markets. The building is innocent. The spreadsheet is guilty.

Brookfield closed $16 billion. Carlyle closed $9 billion. Emerging managers got crumbs. The capital market is barbelling, and operators running 2019 playbooks are invisible. $85B raised by private real estate funds in first 8 months of 2025, on pace for $129B by year end. Top 10 funds captured $68B, roughly 40% of all capital raised. Brookfield closed $16B, Carlyle closed $9B, Blackstone matched largest RE debt fund at $8B. Emerging managers raised only $4.2B through Q3, with 2 firms capturing over half. 

The capital market is barbelling. Mega-platform or niche specialist, no middle ground. Mega-funds scaling through M&A, vertical integration, diversified strategy menus. LPs consolidating manager rosters, writing fewer and larger checks. Capital is flowing to concentrations, not commodities. Mega-funds offer optionality, not just price, in competitive bids. Raising capital is no longer a side activity, it is the core business. Institutional allocators do not unwind consolidated portfolios easily. Operators running 2019 playbooks are invisible in this market.

• Banks captured 34% of Q1 2025 CRE loan closings, up from 22% one year prior
• Private credit originations collapsed from nearly 50% to 19% in the same period
• Banks did not retreat from fear. They retreated to reassess and clean up balance sheets
• Private credit's $500B AUM looks impressive until a bank offers SOFR plus 250 with clean covenants
• $384B in CRE loan maturities coming due this year
• Banks are selectively picking the best refi deals. Private credit gets the rest
• The distinction between preferred provider and lender of last resort is real
• RXR playbook: collaborate with senior lenders, do not replace them
• 75% LTC floating-rate structures from 2023 are obsolete against 65% LTV fixed bank money
• Fewer note sales, fewer fire sales, more workouts. The easy distressed trade is gone
• Operators who modeled permanent private credit availability are already behind
• Capital markets are cyclical. The pendulum swung back to balance sheet lenders
• Rebuild relationships with regional banks and life companies now, or watch your IRR compress

Sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

• The $65B CMBS maturity wall is here. $37 billion has zero extension options. 
• Refinancing pain is real. Borrowers who locked at 3% are now facing 6-7% rates or higher. 
• Equity injections required. Over half of maturing properties need fresh borrower capital just to refinance. 
• Distress is climbing. CMBS distress at 7.86%. Seriously delinquent loans at 7.6%. 
• Office and hotels hit hardest. Lenders are done extending terms and forcing asset-level decisions now. 
• Forced sellers are emerging. Distressed inventory is hitting the market at levels unseen since 2009. 
• The window is opening. Operators with dry powder and clean balance sheets are positioned to move. 

Sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

This is not a joke. It's the most active capital rotation in retail real estate right now. August 2026 data confirms it. Marcus & Millichap closed a Chick-fil-A in Hixson, Tennessee for approximately $2.8 million, all cash, 1031 exchange buyer from Florida, 15-year ground lease, 10% rent bumps. Described as Tennessee's lowest cap rate ever for a single-tenant Chick-fil-A transaction. 

Commercial Search reports private investors are exchanging out of California multifamily into NNN restaurants in Tampa and Austin. Single-tenant net lease retail transactions are up 18% year-over-year. Private buyers account for 71% of activity. The drivers: tax efficiency via 1031 exchanges, cost segregation, and bonus depreciation; management intensity reduction; Sun Belt migration; and credit tenant stability from national brands like Chipotle and Chick-fil-A. This episode breaks down why exhausted multifamily investors from the 2020-2021 vintage are using the 1031 exchange pipeline as an escape hatch, and why the numbers say it's working. 

Episode sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

The fall is mid-NFL season. Any athlete-adjacent attendance would be family members or retired players. The primary focus remains commercial real estate. Active investors, passive investors, operators, deal sponsors, LPs, service providers, brokers. Every guest, invite, and sponsor has been handpicked by Cameron, Adam, and Vanessa. No call to action. If you know, you know.

Episode sponsored by Rise 48 Equity - rise48.com

• 93.6M SF leased in H1 2026 industrial (+26% YoY per CBRE)
• 38 mega industrial leases (≥1M SF) signed in H1 2026, more than double H1 2025
• Industrial demand driven by reshoring, e-commerce saturation, and permanent logistics infrastructure requirements
• Market bifurcation: generic bulk warehouse struggling vs. strategic logistics with rail access, last-mile positioning, and modern specs thriving
• Capital is deploying at scale, not retreating. Tenants optimizing total cost of occupancy (labor, transportation, energy, speed-to-market) over simple rent per square foot
• New supply moderating due to elevated construction costs and financing, creating rent growth setup in right submarkets

• Public Storage closed its 10.5B acquisition of National Storage Affiliates on July22,2026. Combined entity: 4,500+facilities, 330 Mrentable SF,77B enterprise value
• PSA also acquiring Public Storage Canada for $1.2B USD
• SmartStop merging sponsored funds SST VI and SSGT III in $1.2B all-stock deal
• Brookfield and GIC completed A$6.7B take-private of Australia's National Storage REIT (largest ASX REIT take-private ever)
• StorageMart acquired 15 NYC properties for $1B (1.3M SF)
• Transaction volume: ~$6B through Nov 2025 (double 2024's $3B). H1 2026: $2.8B. Pricing up 26% to $123/SF per Yardi Matrix
• Sector values fell ~25% from peak by Q2 2025 per Nuveen Real Estate. Q2 2025 identified as trough
• Yield reset: 18-20% returns post-pandemic → 10-12% expected now
• Development pipeline collapsing: 400 facilities (2025), 650 (2026), 1,000+ (2027-28) per Newmark
• 94.1% of lenders still actively funding self-storage per DXD Capital 2025 survey
• Only 11% of Americans moved in 2024, down from 14.3% a decade prior per Point2Homes

• Treasury working paper: $75B in deferred capital gains outstanding across ~12,800 QOFs and ~41,000 investors as of end of 2024
• Typical OZ investor: $738K adjusted gross income; 85% are individuals
• Hard deadline: all deferred gains recognized by Dec. 31, 2026; tax due April 15, 2027 regardless of whether the fund asset is sold
• Basis step-ups: 15% for investments held 7+ years (in by Dec. 31, 2019); 10% for 5+ years (in by Dec. 31, 2021); post-2021 investments get no step-up
• Recognition formula: lesser of remaining deferred gain or FMV of fund interest on Dec. 31, 2026, minus any basis step-up
• Partnership trap: modified passthrough formula ignores net FMV; investors may recognize full deferred gain even if fund interest is underwater due to debt allocations and prior distributions
• Tax rates: up to 20% federal LTCG + 3.8% NIIT = 23.8%; state non-conformity in CA and NY may create additional liability
• 10-year hold benefit survives: appreciation on QOF investment after 2026 remains tax-free if held 10 years
• One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) made OZs permanent; new framework effective Jan. 1, 2027: 5-year deferral, 10% step-up, rural funds eligible for 30% step-up
• IRS Notice 2026-40 (June 2026): original deferred gains cannot be re-deferred into new QOFs under the 2027 regime

• BlackRock executed roughly $50 billion in data center activity in one week: $40 billion Aligned Data Centers acquisition and $12 billion Meta El Paso campus debt financing
• Meta operates 80/20 JV structure with BlackRock, leasing back compute while BlackRock owns infrastructure
• JLL projects nearly 100 GW of new data center capacity added between 2026 and 2030, a 14% CAGR

Multifamily:

• Q2 2026: first time since fall 2021 that lease-ups outpaced new supply
• Cushman & Wakefield: 124,600 units absorbed, fifth-highest quarterly total in 25 years
• Trailing 4Q: 362K absorbed vs 358K delivered; first time demand exceeded supply since early 2022
• National vacancy fell to 8.9%, down 35 bps, first time below 9% since 2024
• 41.2% of properties still offering concessions, up 9.9 points YoY
• Fort Myers effective rents 11.2% below advertised; Denver 8.2% below
• NYC rent-to-income ratio: 70.6% (median income $71K, average one-bedroom $4,186)

1. Retail Strip Centers & Senior Housing
Green Street Q1 2026: cap rates were frozen across 9 major sectors. Two broke out. Strip centers compressed 15bps, power centers 30-40bps. Senior housing values surged 13% year-over-year, the sharpest rally of any major sector tracked. Demand is strongest in secondary and tertiary markets, not gateway cities.

2. Austin Multifamily
97,000 units delivered since 2020, equal to 40% of total inventory. After three years of declines, Q2 2026 posted +1.3% rent growth, the first increase since fall 2022. Average rent sits at $1,425, only $120 above 2019 levels. Class C properties still down 11.6% year-over-year. The market is finding its floor.

3. San Francisco Office
Transamerica Pyramid signed 113,000 square feet in new leases under new ownership since March. AI companies have leased nearly 2 million square feet citywide. San Francisco posted 10.6% annual rent growth in Q2, the strongest in the nation. Flight-to-quality is real. Trophy assets are leasing. Average buildings are still struggling.

The macro isn't driving returns. Local supply and demand, tenant quality, and demographics are. The operators winning right now are looking where nobody else is.

Defense tech is the new trophy asset. Anduril just raised $5B at a $61B valuation. Revenue over $2B last year. Government-backed, mission-critical tenants are replacing the old office playbook. 

Data centers are printing money but hitting the zoning wall. DataBank raised $1.45B for DFW expansion. Brookfield's Csquare is targeting a $1.35B IPO. But Marietta, Georgia just froze all data center applications for six months after resident pushback.

The macro isn't driving this market. Local supply and demand, tenant credit quality, and regulatory friction are. The operators winning right now aren't waiting for the Fed. They're underwriting to the actual dynamics on the ground.

Construction costs are also climbing from three directions. Labor shortages, tariffs, and data center demand. If your pro formas are using old numbers, your returns are bleeding out before you break ground.

The macro mirage. Everyone stares at the Fed while the real market moves underneath. The smart money is underwriting to fundamentals. Tenant quality. Supply constraints. Actual costs. The operators winning right now stopped waiting for the macro and started moving on the micro.

The market is splitting in two. On one side, trophy net lease assets are compressing hard. McDonald's ground leases in the high 3s to low 4s. Chick-fil-A and Chipotle right behind them. Scarcity of quality expanding tenants is driving the compression, not rate relief. Tractor Supply opened 40 new stores in Q1 2026 alone. When institutional capital, 1031 money, and private equity are all chasing the same limited pool, cap rates compress regardless of where the 10-year sits.

On the other side, dollar stores and drugstores are widening. Dollar stores are a supply problem. Drugstores are a business trajectory problem. CVS and Walgreens are actively shrinking footprints. Pharmacy disruption is real. Buyers are discounting credit ratings based on what the next 10 years look like.

The move? Stop benchmarking against headline cap rates. The rate environment won't bail you out. Underwrite tenant quality and business trajectory separately. Watch the Q3/Q4 maturity wall for forced sellers. And keep your broker relationships tight. The question isn't where the market is. The question is which side of the split your asset sits on.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

First, industrial leasing surged in the first half of 2026. We're talking 491 million square feet of activity. That's 27 percent above the same period last year. The third-strongest first half on record. Big-box leases, spaces over 750,000 square feet, surged 80.7 percent year-over-year. Occupiers are locking in long-term deals. They're committing capital. They're confident. Manufacturing is growing. Defense manufacturing, AI infrastructure, life sciences. These are long-term commitments. These are occupiers betting on the future. 

Second, Microsoft cut 4,800 jobs, 2.1 percent of their workforce. But here's the real story. Xbox is losing 20 percent of its staff. 3,200 people. Four game studios are being spun off. Because the business isn't healthy. Xbox C.E.O. Asha Sharma said it directly. Margins are 3 to 10 times lower than comparable businesses. They've invested 20 billion dollars over five years and revenue declined. Gaming is struggling. But the broader story is A.I. Microsoft is restructuring to prioritize A.I. investments. They're cutting costs to fund data centers and cloud infrastructure. That's where the capital is flowing. 

Third, Bass Pro Shops. 148,000 square feet. Experiential retail. Opening in La Mesa at Grossmont Center in 2028. That's a massive bet on retail. While most retailers are shrinking, Bass Pro is going big. They're betting that experience-driven retail can still move the needle. Aquariums. Displays. Interactive exhibits. They're creating destinations, not just stores. Retail isn't dead. But it's evolved. Experience matters. Location matters. The store has to be a destination. Bass Pro understands that. They're creating a mini-vacation in a shopping center. So what do these three signals tell us? They tell us capital is moving. Industrial is winning because it's essential. Manufacturing, logistics, defense. These are real businesses with real demand. Gaming is losing because it's not delivering returns. And retail is surviving, but only if it's experiential. Only if it's a destination. The lesson is clear. Own assets that deliver. Own assets that create experiences. Own assets that serve real demand. Everything else is getting reset.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

First, builders are hitting pause. Housing construction is slowing down significantly. The pipeline is contracting. They built too much. Supply flooded the market. Now they're waiting for demand to catch up. When that happens, multifamily owners regain pricing power. Fewer new units means existing units become more valuable. Less competition. Rents can move again. Second, Houston. Office buildings are being demolished. Not converted. Demolished. Because land value now exceeds building value. Owners of debt-free properties are looking at the math and saying the land is worth more empty than the building is worth occupied. That's the reset. Office is broken in a lot of markets. Houston is just being honest about it. They're taking the land and starting over. Or holding it for something else. The point is the building has no value. Third, Miami. Office rents just hit an all-time high. Miami now has the highest office rents in the entire country. Houston is demolishing offices and Miami is setting rent records. That's the divergence. That's the market telling you something. It's telling you that office isn't dead. It's telling you that location matters more than ever. Miami has trophy towers. Business relocations. Capital flowing in. Houston has obsolete buildings that nobody wants. It's not about office. It's about which offices. Which markets. Which buildings. Quality matters now more than it ever has. If you own a trophy office in Miami, you're winning. You're setting records. You're attracting capital. If you own a mediocre office in Houston, you're demolishing it. You're taking the land value and moving on. So what does this mean for multifamily? It means the same thing. Builders are pausing. Supply is contracting. Owners of quality multifamily in strong markets are about to regain pricing power. Owners of mediocre multifamily are competing for capital that's increasingly selective. They're fighting for attention in a market that's moved on. The lesson is the same across all asset classes. Own quality. Own location. Own fundamentals. Everything else is getting reset. 

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

After a year and a half of getting crushed, occupancy is stabilizing. The bleeding has stopped. Nationally, we're looking at 0.5 to 2 percent rent growth. That might sound modest, but after near-zero growth, it's a signal. A signal that the supply wave is fading. New deliveries are down significantly. Absorption is picking up. The market is finding equilibrium. But not all multifamily is created equal right now. If you own quality multifamily in a strong market, you're stabilizing. You're seeing rent growth. You're in a good position. If you own mediocre multifamily in a weak market, you're still getting crushed. That divergence is happening because capital is being selective. Investors are rotating. They're holding quality multifamily. They're moving into data centers. They're avoiding weak assets entirely. Because the returns are clearer in data centers right now.

The math is simple. AI is the future. Data centers are essential. The capital flows there. But multifamily still works. It's just not a play for everyone anymore. You need the right asset in the right location. Real occupancy. Real cash flow. Real location. Those are the three things that matter. Everything else is noise. If you have those three things, you're fine. You're stabilizing. You're seeing rent growth. Capital will find you. If you don't, capital is moving past you. It's going into data centers. It's going into assets with clear fundamentals. It's not coming to you. The move is simple. Own good assets. Multifamily in strong markets. Data centers in power-rich regions. Industrial in logistics hubs. Own the stuff that actually works. Avoid everything else. Because capital is moving fast right now. And the people who understand where it's going, who position themselves in the right assets, they're the ones who win. 

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

0:00 - Introduction
Adam introduces the episode with Cameron and Vanessa, diving into how it all came to be.

0:49 - Cameron's Teaser
Cameron hints at a perfect sequence of individual experiences that led to everyone connecting in the private real estate space.

1:18 - Vanessa's Teaser
Vanessa shares her insight: sometimes you feel like something's coming but can't discover what it is. For her, this was the discovery. She emphasizes patience, it took three years.

1:50 - The Orlando Connection (3 Years Ago)
Adam recounts meeting Vanessa at a conference in Orlando about three years ago. It was inexplicable, he knew he needed to know her.

2:48 - The Vancouver Inspiration (January 2026)
Adam and Cameron travel to Vancouver for a conference and are blown away by the event format. They realize there's nothing like it in the commercial real estate space.

3:18 - The Missing Calendar
A month after Vancouver, they attend a CRE event and realize something crucial: there's nothing on the calendar where they can all see each other and connect.

3:34 - The 12:30 AM Call
Adam gets a call from Cameron at 12:30 AM in his kitchen (Adam's a night owl). Cameron says, "Dude, I think we need to do this." The 80/20 rule gets established.

4:14 - The Spider-Man Meme Moment
Within weeks, Cameron coincidentally connects with Vanessa on a deal structuring call. He casually mentions the event happening later in the year. Vanessa texts Adam: "Hey, we need to talk." Everyone connects.

4:55 - Cameron Goes Deeper
Cameron explains the real motivation: four to five years of relationships in the private markets, renewed and reminded of the depth of those friendships. Those relationships are infinitely more valuable than any new opportunity.

5:55 - The Philosophy
Cameron articulates the mission: Foster relationships and connect the right people together so deals get done. It's about making relationships fruitful in every way.

6:50 - Vanessa's Word Choice
Vanessa reframes "lucrative" to "fruitful" because the value extends beyond just money. This encapsulates the philosophy.

7:14 - The Promise
Vanessa expresses excitement about unpacking more of the story in future episodes. Like Christmas, there's a lot to unpack.

7:37 - Work Talk & the Naval Ravikant Close
Adam shares the team culture: they call it "work talk"—it feels like play. He quotes Naval Ravikant: "Continue to pursue the thing that looks like work to others but feels like play to you, because there's something to it."

8:07 - Outro
Thanks for tuning in.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Modern, well-located warehouses are leasing up fast. Location, infrastructure, and quality matter most. Older stock is sitting empty. Q1 2026 saw 40 million square feet of net absorption, the strongest start in years. National vacancy is around 7.5 percent and stabilizing, though some markets are higher. Austin sits at 21.9 percent, Phoenix at 12.7 percent. But the trend is moving in the right direction. Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Indianapolis are leading the recovery. Demand is outpacing supply, which means rents are going to follow. LA is still dealing with COVID-era overbuilding, with West Coast vacancy around 8.3 percent. But inland markets, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest are where the action is. If you're an operator, you're looking at markets where demand outpaces construction, where modern space is scarce, where you can actually charge rent growth. It's specific markets. It's specific product types.

Modern, large-format, automation-ready facilities. That's what tenants want. That's what's leasing. Construction starts are down significantly. Financing is tight. Power and water constraints in some markets. Developers are being disciplined. They're not building unless the rent spread makes sense. We're moving from oversupplied to undersupplied in the right locations. And that's where the money is. For the first time in years, it's a landlord's market. If you own the right asset in the right location, you're in control.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

hat's not a rounding error. That's a completely different market. When you understand that there are 10 million units missing nationwide, the investment opportunity isn't just in the gateway cities everyone's chasing. It's everywhere. Secondary markets. Tertiary markets. Places where people actually need to live and work. The operators winning right now are the ones who see past the Sunbelt narrative and understand the actual supply and demand dynamics. Because when you understand that, you understand where capital flows. And capital flows to where the returns are. 10 million units missing isn't a problem. It's an opportunity for the operators who see it.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

On one side, traditional CRE is facing a forced workout phase with $875B in loans maturing in 2026. Office delinquencies are at record levels. The extend-and-pretend era is over. But on the other side, institutional capital is flooding into AI data center infrastructure. KKR just launched Helix Digital Infrastructure with over $10B in committed capital, partnering with Nvidia, the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Vistra. Long-duration contracts. Creditworthy tenants. Structural demand. These aren't cyclical assets. These are essential infrastructure for the AI economy. The people winning right now are the ones who understand.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Office is dead for most institutional capital sources right now. Industrial has occupancy strength, positive rent growth, and rock-solid tenant credit quality. These aren't mom-and-pop tenants - these are major logistics operators who need the space and can pay for it.

Here's what's driving the shift: 1. E-commerce demand remains steady and structural 2. Supply is tightening across prime logistics markets 3. Lenders are cautious on office but aggressive on industrial because the risk profile is completely different 4. Long-term leases, creditworthy tenants, supply constraints that create pricing power There's a clear bifurcation happening: prime logistics assets near major metros are printing money with strong occupancy and rent growth. Secondary industrial is getting repriced lower because the fundamentals aren't as strong. Operators who understand this capital reallocation early have a massive advantage. As office continues to struggle, more capital gets displaced. Some goes to multifamily, some to data centers, but a significant chunk is landing in industrial because the risk-return tradeoff is just better. The people winning in real estate right now are the ones in the room where these capital allocation calls happen in real time.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

In this episode, we explore what Goldman Sachs' blockchain-native real estate fund actually means for operators, sponsors, and investors. Tokenization is converting real estate into digital tokens that represent fractional ownership stakes—divisible, tradeable, and liquid. The market is bifurcating into two tiers: institutional-grade assets with tokenization infrastructure (liquid, efficient, attractive to blockchain-native funds) and traditional hold-and-sell real estate (harder to raise capital for, longer timelines).

If you're an operator, you need to understand three things: 1. Which asset classes are suited for tokenization (stabilized, income-producing assets with predictable cash flows) 2. How to structure your capital stack for fractional ownership and secondary market liquidity 3. The regulatory environment around tokenization and SEC rules The operators who understand this shift early will have a massive advantage in capital raising. And the people winning in real estate right now aren't thinking about one asset class or one capital source, they're thinking about how capital flows across all structures.
 

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Oil and gas shouldn't be thriving in 2026. ESG mandates, renewable rhetoric, and institutional capital rotation should have killed it. But the sector is attracting serious capital and commanding premium returns. Here's why.

Geopolitical reality is driving the narrative. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to push LNG demand in Europe. Middle East stability concerns are systemic. Energy security is now a non-negotiable strategic asset. Oil prices are holding steady between $75-$85 per barrel—resilient, predictable, profitable.

Private equity is returning despite the ESG noise. Alternative lenders are aggressively financing exploration and production and midstream assets. Pension funds and endowments are quietly re-entering for stable, inflation-protected returns. Capital rotation is real, and it's flowing back into energy.

The supply side tells the story. US shale is maturing. Drilling efficiency is declining. Equipment supply chains are bottlenecked. Less new capacity is coming online, which means existing operators have pricing power. That's structural, not cyclical.

This isn't a growth play. Oil and gas is about cash flow. Disciplined operators are buying reserves, cutting costs, and distributing capital. Predictable. Measurable. That's what institutional capital wants.

This is where serious operators are deploying capital. If you're in the right rooms, you already know what's coming.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Hospitality: The Return of Physical Events

Group travel and conferences are surging as post-COVID conversions wind down. Corporate retreats, trade shows, and conventions are driving higher occupancy and premium rates for hotels with meeting space.

Winning metros: Las Vegas, Orlando, New Orleans, Austin

Who's winning: Operators with group-friendly layouts and scalable meeting infrastructure

Industrial: Escape Velocity

Last-mile logistics and light industrial spaces are seeing 8–12% annual rent growth. E-commerce demand keeps climbing, and 3PLs are consolidating real estate at scale.

Who's deploying capital: PE, debt funds, and REITs rotating in for stable cash flow and downside protection

Where the Money Is Actually Going

Institutional capital is chasing both sectors, but not evenly. Secondary and tertiary metros (San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Inland Empire) are moving fastest due to tight supply and strong e-commerce fundamentals.

The shift: Capital stopped chasing trophy assets alone. It's now hunting playgrounds with real cash flow, occupancy momentum, and demographics that actually work.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Capital splitting into two flows. Operators positioning now are winning.

The Housing Play: Adaptive Reuse

90,300 office-to-residential conversions in pipeline. Conversion costs $250-275k per unit. Office buildings at 40-60% discounts. Downtown residential land costs $500k-$1M per unit—the discount covers conversion.

Incentives: Historic Tax Credit (20%), Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, property tax abatements, TIF, federal 20% conversion credit pending.

The Play: Capital flowing into downtown cores with residential demand and weak office fundamentals.

The Infrastructure Play: AI Data Centers

$600-725B deploying in 2026. Goldman Sachs projects $7.6T through 2031.

The Constraint: Power. 30-50% of planned 2026 US AI data centers delayed/canceled due to grid constraints.

The Economics: 1 gigawatt facility generates $14B annual revenue. 1-2 year payback on 15-year asset.

The Play: Operators who secure power win. Capital flows to markets with power availability.

Your Position

• Downtown + residential demand? Adaptive reuse.
• Power + hyperscaler interest? Data centers.
• Neither? Sidelines.

Operators positioning now are winning.

Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity - Vertically integrated multifamily investing. rise48.com

Alternative lenders captured 37% of non-agency CRE loan closings in 2025, up from historical averages. Banks dropped to 31%. This shift is structural. Non-banks move fast. They structure deals banks won't touch. Higher leverage. Mezzanine options. Transitional assets. Bridge financing. Capital is rotating away from big-box industrial toward flex space. Flex is trading in the mid-to-high 6% range with 4.2% vacancy versus 7-7.5% for broader industrial. Rent growth is stronger. Demand is resilient.

Private credit funds raised about $30 billion in 2025 alone for North American real estate debt. Private credit AUM globally is projected to hit or exceed $2 trillion in 2026. Why? Refinancing wall. About $936 billion in CRE loan maturities in 2026. Banks aren't covering it. Non-bank lenders are filling the gap. First-lien loans in the 8.0 to 8.5% range. These are attractive risk-adjusted returns for institutional capital. Pension funds, insurance companies, family offices are all allocating to private credit. For quality assets with experienced sponsors, capital is available but selective. The market is separating winners from losers.

There's a fourth player emerging: tokenized real estate. Fractional ownership on blockchain. USDC yields. Global access. No traditional refinancing cycle. Platforms like RealT have tokenized 970+ properties. Investors from 125+ countries. Daily rental income distributed in USDC. Entry points as low as $50. Tokenized real estate is currently around $20 billion with projections to reach $1.5 trillion over the next decade. Capital isn't frozen. It's rotating. Away from banks toward non-banks. Away from big-box industrial toward flex. Away from traditional refinancing toward private credit and tokenized alternatives.

Capital is available but selective, disciplined, flowing to quality assets with experienced operators and strong fundamentals. The operators who understand this moment are positioning now. The ones waiting for perfect conditions are getting left behind. This is the conversation happening in the rooms that matter.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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After years of record deliveries, the worst of the oversupply wave is passing. In 2024 and 2025, DFW delivered record apartment units. Vacancy hit 12%, a 20-year high. But construction is collapsing. The pipeline has shrunk for 11 straight quarters. In 2025, DFW delivered about 32,000 units. In 2026, completions are projected to drop to around 25,000. That's a 50% decline from peak. Q1 2026 data shows occupancy at 93.2%. Rents averaging $1,483. By late 2026, occupancy is hitting 93.5% and rents recovering to around $1,517. DFW is moving from an oversupplied market to an operator's market. Now let's talk about policy risk.

Los Angeles passed Measure ULA in 2022. It's called the mansion tax. 4% on real estate sales over $5.3 million. 5.5% over $10.6 million. But it applies to all high-value properties. Not just mansions. Multifamily apartments. Commercial buildings. Mixed-use sites. Everything over the threshold gets hit. Sales of multifamily-zoned properties over $5.3 million fell by nearly two-thirds after the tax passed. UCLA research shows the tax caused a causal reduction of at least 1,910 multifamily units per year. That's an 18% decline relative to pre-tax averages. Multifamily permits fell 27% post-tax.

Federal data shows only 7,363 multifamily units permitted in one recent year. That's a 46% drop from 2022. The lowest since 2013. Developers are leaving. They're shifting to suburbs like Burbank. They're going to other states. The tax raised about $1.19 billion. But revenue is falling short of projections. Fewer sales mean fewer transactions. And because of Prop 13, fewer sales also reduce ongoing property tax revenue. The net effect is a housing deficit, including fewer affordable units. The policy backfired. You try to tax the rich, but you end up destroying the supply you're trying to create. Here's what's really happening. You have two markets moving in opposite directions.

DFW is healing because supply is normalizing. LA is getting worse because policy is destroying supply. Capital is flowing to markets where supply is rational and policy doesn't punish you for building. DFW is getting capital. LA is losing capital. Operators in DFW are about to see rent growth. Operators in LA are about to see continued pressure. This is the moment where the market separates the winners from the losers. DFW operators who understand the supply inflection are positioning now. LA operators who don't understand policy risk are getting left behind. Supply cycles are predictable if you pay attention. Policy risk is avoidable if you're smart about where you deploy capital. DFW gets it. LA doesn't. This is the conversation happening in the rooms that matter.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Law firms are anchoring the premium office market, 21.7% of all leases above $100 PSF in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, San Francisco apartment rents are surging 7.7% year-over-year, with South of Market up 19.2% and Mission Bay up 15.8%. Quality assets are separating from everything else. Capital knows where to go. It's going to quality. It's going to scarcity. It's going to assets with pricing power. If you own mediocre real estate, you're in trouble. If you own quality real estate in a supply-constrained market, you're printing money. This is the conversation happening in the rooms that matter.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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In Q1 2026, alternative lenders captured 53% of non-agency CRE loan closings, up from 19% a year ago. Banks got squeezed out by regulatory constraints and now sit at 22% market share. Non-banks move faster and are more flexible on structure, but charge higher rates and tighter covenants. Quality assets get funded. Mediocre deals struggle. The operators who understand where capital is coming from, how to structure deals for non-bank lenders, and the true cost of that capital are the ones deploying right now. The rest are sitting on the sidelines.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Supply chains are reshuffling. Capital is flooding into industrial real estate in Texas. But construction costs just jumped 6.2%. Energy prices are up. Steel is up. Lumber is up. The economics of building new industrial capacity to support onshoring are getting crushed. Developers trying to build new face margin compression. A project that penciled at 8% returns six months ago is now looking at 4% or 5%. Some deals don't pencil at all anymore. But existing industrial assets? That's where the real play is.

Operators with existing industrial in Houston are capturing onshoring demand without construction risk. They're leasing existing space at premium rates to companies reshoring operations. Existing industrial assets are becoming scarce. Developers trying to build new capacity are facing construction inflation that's eating their returns. Smart money figured this out already. They're buying existing industrial in Houston, not developing new. Existing assets command premium pricing. New development gets delayed or repriced lower. The scarcity of existing industrial is real. And capital knows it. For operators in Houston right now, you need to understand your position.

Do you own existing industrial capturing onshoring demand? Or are you trying to develop new capacity at breakeven economics? Because the market is separating those two positions very clearly right now. Existing industrial in Houston is a goldmine. New development is a trap unless you can absorb construction inflation.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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No office space left. That's huge. But what does that actually mean? It means trophy office is back. And it's not just a New York story. This is a bifurcation signal on steroids. While Hudson Yards is at full occupancy, distressed office investments hit 4.3 billion dollars in 2025. A decade high. So you've got two markets happening at the same time. Trophy assets thriving. Aging stock getting crushed. So capital is consolidating? Exactly. Flight to quality. The best buildings, the best locations, the best experiences—that's where serious money is moving. Everything else is getting repriced hard. What about the operators caught in the middle? They're in trouble. If you own aging office without a trophy positioning, you're facing serious pressure. Tenants are moving to Hudson Yards. They're moving to the best buildings. They're not staying in mediocre space. So what's the play for operators right now? You either own or control trophy assets, or you're repositioning aggressively to become one.

There's no middle ground anymore. The market is separating. Capital is concentrating in the best buildings. Smaller players are getting squeezed out. And this is accelerating? It's accelerating fast. Hudson Yards at full occupancy while distressed office hits a decade high—that's not a coincidence. That's the market telling you exactly where it's going. Trophy or trouble. That's the choice. So for operators watching this, you need to understand your position in this bifurcation. Are you trophy? Are you becoming trophy? Or are you exposed? Because capital knows the difference. And it's moving accordingly. The operators who see this shift clearly, who understand that trophy is the only sustainable play.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Most people see this as fitness brand diversification. But wellness is becoming a capital allocation signal. The best operators in real estate aren't just building apartments or office space. They're building experiences. And capital is following that shift hard. Luxury properties are competing on wellness amenities now. Rooftop recovery centers. Spa amenities. Integrated fitness. These aren't nice-to-haves anymore - they're deal-makers. Properties without a wellness layer are getting repriced lower. It's a different kind of bifurcation. Used to be Class A versus Class B.

Now it's experiences versus dumb boxes. Operators with aging stock, no wellness integration - they're facing serious repricing pressure. The smart money figured this out already. Equinox expanding signals that wellness is reshaping where capital goes. Hotels. Residences. Adaptive reuse. These are the vectors where serious operators are deploying capital right now. If you're not thinking about the wellness layer in your real estate strategy, you're already behind. You need to understand this shift. This is the moment where the market is separating the operators who get it from the ones who don't.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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National multifamily rents remain down 0.2%, with massive oversupply in the Sun Belt creating a bifurcated market. The numbers are stark: - 740,000 units currently in lease-up, mostly in the Sun Belt - Dallas vacancy at 12.2%, Houston at 19.5%, Austin at 16.7% - Austin rents down 4.3% YoY, Denver -3.6%, Tampa -3.4%, Phoenix -2.7% - Meanwhile, New York up 4.8%, San Francisco up 4.1%, Chicago up 3.3% Construction starts have collapsed from 2022 peaks, but the backlog from 2024-2025 is still hitting the market.

Expect 12-18 months of continued pressure in oversupplied markets. The opportunity? Outer-ring submarkets in the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Texas are showing double-digit rent growth. Employment gains are strong (Charlotte +37.6K, Dallas +14.9K, Tampa +15.5K). The smart money is moving to where supply is constrained and employment is strong. The operators winning right now are the ones who understand the moment and move decisively. The ones losing are waiting for perfect conditions that aren't coming.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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RevPAR growth now expected between 2.75 and 5.25 percent. That's luxury performing while the broader market is flat. Here's what's happening. Affluent travelers are spending more. They're staying longer. They're choosing experiences over everything else. And the smart money knows this. Private equity is mobilizing. They backed 46 percent of all travel and hospitality deal value in the second half of 2025. That's 20 billion dollars. But they're not buying midscale hotels. They're buying luxury. They're buying lifestyle properties. Design-led, experience-driven assets that command premium pricing. Trinity Investments and Sculptor just bought the JW Marriott Marco Island Beach Resort for 835 million dollars. 809 rooms. 27 acres. Golf. Event space. That's the playbook.

Meanwhile, what's not working? Midscale hotels are getting crushed. Independent hotels are facing margin pressure. The flight to quality is real and it's accelerating. Supply is the story. Luxury segment hit a record high in Q1. 102 projects, 25,527 rooms. That's up 16 percent in projects and 23 percent in rooms year over year. But here's the thing. That's still constrained. The broader market is adding 77,000 rooms in 2026. Luxury is a fraction of that. Scarcity is driving pricing power. And then there's India. The luxury hospitality market in India is 18 billion dollars right now. By 2030, it's going to be 85 to 90 billion dollars. That's 12 to 20 percent compound annual growth. 100 million affluent consumers. 1.2 million millionaires. Capital is flowing there hard.

So where is the smart money actually going? Luxury resorts in gateway markets. Lifestyle hotels in Asia Pacific. Wellness properties. Properties with spa, with events, with experiences that justify premium pricing. Branded residences. Four Seasons residences. Auberge residences. HNWIs are buying these. They're not just hotels. They're alternative investments. And the capital markets are cooperating. Senior debt is mispriced at 8 to 8.5 percent. That's protection for strong markets. Cap rates are stable. Dry powder is deploying. The bifurcation is complete. Luxury is winning. Everything else is fighting for scraps. The people who understand this moment, who can read the data and know where capital is actually flowing, they're positioning now.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Here's the real story: it's bifurcated. Forty-one of the fifty major markets are showing year-over-year rent improvement. But the Sun Belt is getting absolutely crushed. Austin, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta seeing 15-21% rent cuts. Record vacancies. The post-pandemic construction boom is still delivering into softening demand. Austin alone went from massive permitting in 2024 to basically nothing in 2025. Ninety-seven percent collapse in permits. But developers are already planning 2026 starts for 2027 and 2028 delivery. They're betting that when supply dries up, they'll be positioned. Supply is finally peaking. Deliveries expected to drop to around 450,000 units in 2026, down from 595,000 in 2025. That's a massive shift. But demand is still there. 637,000 units were absorbed in 2025. That's the seventh best year ever. Coastal markets and low-supply markets are seeing rent growth. Sun Belt oversupply is still a problem. Single-family rents are rising while multifamily is flattening. Record rent gap between the two. The pattern is clear: Vacancy stabilizing. Supply peaking. But rent growth is bifurcated. Winners and losers are being determined right now. The operators who understand this moment, who can read the data and know where to actually deploy capital, they're the ones winning.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Q1 apartment deliveries just hit a four-year low. We're talking about the fewest new units hitting the market in years. All those markets that got absolutely hammered with supply over the last couple years are finally getting a breather. The oversupply problem is starting to solve itself. Not because demand exploded. Because builders finally stopped swinging the hammer. Meanwhile, Blackstone just crossed 1.3 trillion in assets under management. You know what carried that entire quarter? Data centers and energy. Not traditional real estate. Not office. Data centers. That's the capital flow right now. That's where the smart money is moving. But here's where it gets interesting. The Sun Belt isn't overbuilt. It's uneven. You look at metro-wide rent data and it looks fine. But zoom in? Sharp divide. Some neighborhoods are crushing it. Others are struggling. The investors who are reading the headline numbers and thinking everything's fine are missing the actual play. And in New York, something wild is happening. Nearly a quarter of all Manhattan office relocations over the past three years landed in one submarket. Penn Station area. And here's the kicker. Most of those companies didn't downsize. They upsized. They moved to bigger footprints. Companies aren't shrinking. They're relocating to places where they can actually operate. Where the infrastructure makes sense. So the pattern is clear. Apartment supply is tightening. Capital is flowing to data centers. Office is consolidating in the right locations. The winners are the ones who understand where the actual demand is.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Blackstone just hit 1.3 trillion in assets under management. Data centers carried the entire quarter. That's not a coincidence. That's a signal. The industry is being forced to rethink operations, strategy, and long-term survival. Technology adoption is accelerating. The Sun Belt isn't overbuilt. It's uneven. Metro-wide rent data is masking a sharp divide, and investors reading only the headline numbers are missing the actual play. Charlotte just climbed to number five in national CRE investment rankings. That's a city that wasn't even on the radar three years ago. Tampa Bay office vacancy just hit a four-year low. The office sector is stabilizing, but not everywhere. Not evenly. Land pipeline is shrinking. 24 percent drop in land listings nationwide. That's reshaping development economics. Headquarters are relocating. Intrametro moves. Cost efficiency. Hybrid work reshaping where companies actually want to be. So what's the pattern? Data centers are booming. Office is stabilizing in the right markets. Land is getting scarce. Capital is getting selective. The operators who understand this moment, who can read the data and move fast, they're going to dominate.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Class A apartments are facing oversupply. Class C renters are getting squeezed. But Class B assets are quietly delivering the most stability. That's where the smart money is sitting. Florida is building more storage than any state in America. 55 million square feet of new storage coming online in 2026. The market is finally building like it actually learned something from the last boom. That's discipline. That's operators who understand cycles. Meanwhile, in New York, pension funds are pouring $4 billion into affordable housing. Development, preservation, office-to-residential conversions. That's institutional capital moving. The market is bifurcating. Class A is struggling. Class C is under pressure. Class B is winning. Storage is disciplined. Affordable housing is getting capital. The operators who understand this moment, who are positioned in the right assets, they're going to dominate.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

In this special promotional episode, Adam explains why ChatGPT and Claude Native just don't cut it for serious operators who need to actually do things, not just talk about them. The speed difference is real. The privacy guarantees are contractual. And the multi-model flexibility means you're never locked into a single vendor.

Key points covered:

• Why Simtheory's web agent reads sites like a human, not through clunky screenshots
• The privacy advantage: your data is contractually protected from AI training
• How Simtheory lets you choose your AI brain (Claude, GPT, Gemini, and more)
• Adam's personal connection to the founders and what that means for attendees

Want to get set up properly? Reach out to Adam directly for the inside track on getting started.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Denver and D.C. assets at prices that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. New York is converting its way through the problem. David Werner is picking up older Manhattan office buildings at steep discounts, his latest Hell's Kitchen deal closing at roughly a third of its 2018 price. One Whitehall Street just went into contract for just over $100 million for a rental conversion. 55 Broad Street saw a $500 million recapitalization with institutional capital stepping in. But not everyone's playing the conversion game. Investors like Igal Namdar just dropped $280 million on 250 West 57th Street with no conversion thesis. Just a bet that today's pricing leaves enough room for upside regardless of use. Two different playbooks. Same market moment.

Chicago and L.A. are the deepest in the hole. South Florida is sitting it out, waiting for better visibility on rates. The market is in a moment of transition. Price discovery is happening. Deals that were frozen for years are finally moving. And if you've been in commercial real estate and capital raising for any amount of time, you know there used to be pivotal events. Industry gatherings where relationships compounded and deals got done. A lot of those events are gone now. Sunsetted. Minimized. There's a vacuum. That's exactly why this matters right now. This is the new anchor event for people who no longer have one. And the people who move first on sponsorships and VIP tickets? They're going to be the ones positioned to capitalize on what's happening.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

And here's the thing nobody's talking about. If you've been in commercial real estate and capital raising for any amount of time, you know there used to be pivotal events. Industry gatherings that everyone circled on their calendar. The rooms where deals got done. Where relationships compounded year after year. A lot of those events? Sunsetted. Minimized. Gone. There's a vacuum right now.

That's exactly why this matters. This isn't just another conference. This is the new anchor event for people who no longer have one. If you know, you know. You show up once, you walk away with contacts. You show up three years in a row? You've got a network. You've got trust. You've got partners. That's where deals actually get done.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Simultaneously, tenants signed 120 million square feet of new leases — a 25% jump over Q1 2025 and the highest single quarter since mid-2018. This episode breaks down the paradox. The leasing surge wasn't driven by blockbuster deals but by an unusually high number of smaller transactions. Average new lease sizes remain 15% below pre-pandemic norms. Tenants are taking less space, committing to shorter terms, and moving into spec suites. This is flight to quality playing out in real time. Financial services firms are propping up stronger markets. Charlotte and New York both posted leasing volumes above pre-2020 averages. San Francisco is getting a lift from AI-driven tech leasing. But the ceiling is coming into view. Return-to-office movement may be approaching its peak. Job growth remains tepid. Rising energy costs are creating demand-side headwinds. For owners of high-quality, amenitized products in the right markets — Charlotte, New York, San Francisco, Orange County, Dallas — the demand signal is real. For everyone else, rising vacancy and expiring leases are still the story.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Cameron Iuvancigh from Thunder Bay, Ontario - working with TribeVest, strategic relationships with fund managers across the country, and his off-grid island project Superior Island. Vanessa Haynes from Tempe, Arizona - founder of Greattly, 15 years of executive marketing management, daughter of Pro Football Hall of Famer Mike Haynes, and founder of Greattly Gives nonprofit. Adam Carswell from Painesville, Ohio - architect of the capital-raising ecosystem, built RaiseMasters from zero to ten million dollars in 31 months, hosted over 1,000 interviews, and the Global Capital Connector. Together, they're creating a goldmine.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com

This deal is part of a massive national trend. At the start of 2026, 90,300 apartments are under construction through office conversions, a 28% increase year-over-year and 291% increase since 2022. Office conversions now represent 47% of all adaptive reuse projects. NYC leads with 16,400 units in pipeline. Washington D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Denver are all converting office to residential. National office vacancy is 17.6%, with eight top-25 markets above 20%. Austin at 24.6%, San Francisco at 24.2%.

Multifamily vacancy is 4.8% vs office at 19%. Multifamily rents up 21.3% since 2020, office rents up only 1.4%. Over 81 million sq ft of office space in conversion pipeline, 75% planned for multifamily. Fewer than 20% of office properties suit residential conversion. Conversions cost 20-30% less than new construction. RXR converting 1.1M sq ft into 1,250 units. Broad Street Development recapped another conversion for $175M. This is where institutional capital is flowing. This is the biggest real estate transition in America.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com

Episode Sponsor: Rise48.com

This episode breaks down what the numbers actually mean:

• On-time payments at 83.7%, up 135 basis points from the September 2025 low
• Full-payment rate at 95.8%, the highest since August 2025
• Late payments still above 10%, but the three-month moving average is trending down
• Year-over-year comparisons still negative (31 consecutive months), but the gap is narrowing
• Western and Mountain states leading: South Dakota (97.2%), New Hampshire (94%), Utah (94%), Alaska (93.5%)
• 2-4 family rentals outperforming single-family and larger multifamily
• Macro tailwinds: GDP at 2.2%, wages outpacing inflation, steady employment

The takeaway: This is stabilization, not a victory lap. The worst of the payment squeeze appears to be behind us, but we're not back to normal. It's a grind, not a snap back.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

This episode breaks down why this deal matters:

• Why institutional capital is shifting away from commoditized markets toward resort and lifestyle destinations
• The Stockman: 9 stories, 59 guest rooms, 95 private residences, ski-in/ski-out access, butler service
• Why hybrid deals with multiple revenue streams (hotel, residential sales, management fees) are attracting serious capital
• Steamboat Springs as a proven destination market with consistent high-net-worth demand
• What this signals for operators still chasing oversupplied Sun Belt multifamily
• Why lifestyle and resort destinations are getting institutional attention right now

The Stockman is not an outlier. It's a signal of where the market is heading.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

National multifamily rent growth slowed to 1.2% year-over-year, down from 1.4% in January. Annualized monthly growth is sitting at 0.2%.

But context is the difference between panicking and positioning.

In this episode, we break down:

• Rents have increased for 32 straight months with zero national declines
• 86.6% of metros still posting positive YoY growth
• Florida and Texas struggling under oversupply: North Port (-5.3%), Cape Coral (-5.0%), Austin still 18.2% below its 2022 peak
• National vacancy hit 7.3% in December
• Virginia Beach (+5.9%), San Francisco (+5.9%), and Chicago (+5.4%) leading the other side of the split
• Northeast projected at 4-5% annual rent growth; Midwest on a 3-4.5% path
• Sun Belt looking at 1-2% at best until supply is absorbed
• Yardi Matrix projecting 450,000 deliveries in 2026, a 24% drop from 595,000 in 2025
• 2027 deliveries dropping further to ~416,000
• New construction starts for rental housing down 70% from peak
• Yardi forecasting national rent growth to hit 2% by 2027
• Why disciplined operators buying now, at the bottom of the rent growth cycle, will look like geniuses 18 months from now

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

In this episode, we break down:

• San Jose: Highest AI talent concentration in the country (6x national average), $216K average AI salary
• New York City: 15,000+ new AI job listings, $151K average salary, Harvey AI expanding in Manhattan
• Seattle: AI roles nearly 3x the national average, $170K average pay, Microsoft/Amazon/startups driving office absorption
• Dallas: The dark horse with $128K average salary, 316 coworking spaces, solid fiber coverage, and a cost of living that makes scaling affordable
• CBRE projecting more high-profile AI leasing deals through 2026
• OpenAI expanding in San Francisco's Mission Bay
• The office market bifurcation: AI-rich metros thriving while traditional markets struggle
• Data centers as the dominant asset class: $600B+ in cloud company capex projected for 2026
• Moody's projecting $3 trillion in global data center spending over five years
• 100 GW of new capacity by 2030 = $1.2 trillion in real estate asset value creation
• Data centers outbidding home builders for land in major U.S. markets

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

This entire episode is dedicated to them. This is how we treat our sponsors.

Founded by Zach Haptonstall out of Phoenix, Arizona, Rise48 Equity is one of the most disciplined multifamily operators in the country. From a lower middle class upbringing to building a vertically integrated real estate company with over 11,000 units, 350 W2 employees, and a track record that speaks for itself.

In this episode, we break down:

• Zach's journey from undersized offensive lineman to healthcare marketing director to full-time real estate operator
• Quitting a $200K+ career with $300K in savings and making zero dollars for three years
• How Rise 48 went from 6 deals ($60M) to 32 deals ($1.3B) in 24 months
• Full vertical integration: Rise 48 Communities (property management) and Rise 48 Construction
• Controlling the entire supply chain with fixed pricing on materials and labor sourced wholesale from overseas manufacturers
• Never missing a debt payment, never defaulting, never losing investor capital
• Playing "grim reaper" by acquiring over a dozen distressed deals at loan amounts, wiping out seller equity
• Expanding from Phoenix to Dallas (2023) and North Carolina (2024)
• Shutting down two profitable businesses (HVAC company with $3.5M revenue/35% margins and third-party management) on January 1, 2026 to maintain laser focus
• Going all in on AI with an internal AI committee, daily standups, and building a proprietary operating system using Claude Code
• Automating 4,000 monthly distribution payments in two days (saving $100K and six months of development)
• Pivoting to operational value-add: bulk cable contracts, carports, valet trash to drive NOI
• Zach's market outlook: 12-month bottom window, new supply absorbed by late 2026/early 2027, significant housing shortage ahead, and tailwinds for operators who bought at 30-50% discounts

Watch the full interview with Zach Haptonstall:
On the Rise Podcast - Zach Haptonstall Interview

Learn more about Rise48 Equity:
rise48.com

Meanwhile, commercial real estate values remain approximately 22% below their 2022 peak, creating a compelling entry point as capital begins rotating back into real assets. Blackstone's BREIT just posted its strongest inflows since 2022. The smart money isn't guessing. It's moving.

In this episode, we break down:

• Why private credit's high-yield appeal is being recalibrated against liquidity and transparency risks
• The Western Alliance vs. Jefferies dispute and what it signals about bank exposure to private credit
• $300B in opaque bank exposure through SPVs and fund financing
• Non-traded REIT inflows rebounding after dropping from $33.2B (2022) to $5.7B (2025)
• Blackstone's BREIT posting its strongest inflows since 2022
• CRE values sitting 22% below 2022 peak as an entry point
• U.S. equity REITs tripling capital raising in February
• Harbor Group International closing a $562M, 11-asset multifamily acquisition
• Freddie Mac's Small Balance Loan program anchoring multifamily financing
• Executive orders targeting housing regulation cuts
• Rent cuts in a quarter of U.S. apartment markets, led by Florida metros
• Bank of America leasing the full office tower at One Bryant Park
• OpenAI expanding with another Mission Bay lease in San Francisco
• Electrified industrial outdoor storage emerging as a niche asset class
• A $200M data center factory coming to Brighton, Colorado

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

In this episode, we break down:

• Why Blackstone is shedding legacy assets and what it signals for the broader CRE market
• Where institutional capital is flowing right now (industrial deal activity is only 11% below pre-pandemic levels)
• Clarion Partners' $412M acquisition of The Brickyard logistics site in LA
• The office market reality: trophy assets move, everything else struggles
• Deals over $100M increasing year over year despite declining total volume
• The federal government buying warehouses (not leasing) for ICE detention centers
• Sale-leaseback resurgence: $14B fueled by M&A activity
• Public Storage acquiring National Storage Affiliates in an all-stock deal
• Jay Parsons' 2026 apartment rent outlook
• Industrial bulk occupancies jumping 25%
• Office traffic posting its strongest February since 2020
• Bank of America strategist drawing pre-2008 parallels
• Rising five-year inflation expectations driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

For twelve episodes, we've been telling you the room is being built. Now it has a home. The vision. The invitation. It's all in one place.

Adam, Cam, and the team are taking an approach nobody has ever seen in commercial real estate. They're not building another conference. They're creating an experience and delivering more value than this niche has ever seen at a single event.

Here's the bold claim: There will be more capital in this room ready to deploy than all of the major events usually on the North American commercial real estate circuit. And in just the last five days, major equity has confirmed it will be in the room.

This isn't an event where you sit in the stands and wave pom poms. This is where deals get done.

500 seats. Spots are limited. Move fast.

The first three episodes laid the foundation for everything that's followed. Today, we walk through all three and explain why they still matter.

Episode 1: The Room Is Being Built
The origin story. The conference circuit is falling apart. Adam Carswell and Cameron Iuvancigh noticed, and instead of complaining, they decided to build the room themselves.

Episode 2: Why 500 Is Just the Beginning
500 isn't a cap. It's year one. The floor, not the ceiling. Modeled after a resource investment conference that started small and became one of the biggest gatherings in its industry. Same playbook. Applied to commercial real estate.

Episode 3: The Factor
Why the city? Because it has become one of the most important commercial real estate markets in the country. $16 billion in CRE sales in 2025. A 35% surge in investment sales. CBRE's #2 target city for CRE investment. Class A rents in the core pushing $73/sq ft. 127 companies relocated since 2020. This wasn't random. It was strategic.

Plus: Breaking News
This weekend, Adam and Cam worked some network magic. Very serious institutional capital is heading to the room. Not angel money. Not friends and family rounds. The kind of capital that moves the needle on real deals. More details coming soon.

Spots are limited. Move fast.

• Kyle Swafford — Swafford Law Firm. Syndication attorney specializing in fund structuring, SEC compliance, and legal infrastructure for operators nationwide.
• Rachel Griffith — Senior Vice President at King Operating (Dallas). 25+ years in leadership, 15 years in Africa, now leading partner relations and capital development for a fourth-generation oil and gas company focused on Texas Permian Basin projects.
• Bryan Escudero — President & CEO of First Gen Foundations (Miami-based). Educating and empowering first-generation investors through multifamily in secondary markets like Columbus, Ohio.

Three lanes. One room. This is what we mean when we say this room is being built differently.

In this episode, we break down Atlanta's surprising multifamily turnaround and what's driving the shift:

• 4.1% projected rent growth in 2026 — ranking #2 among major U.S. metros
• 8,400 fewer units delivering in 2026 vs. 2025
• Vacancy tightening to 5.2% — the lowest since the post-pandemic recovery
• Lowest apartment pricing among major metros last year
• Hot submarkets: Cumberland, Midtown, Gwinnett County, Clayton County
• 19,000 jobs projected to be added in 2026

Plus Quick Hits:

• CRE CLO issuance picking back up
• Institutional investors preparing to deploy capital
• Phoenix ranked #1 for industrial investment in 2025
• Chicago's 2.8M SF Aon Center sent back to special servicing

500 High Achievers. One Room.

This episode breaks down five newly confirmed attendees spanning multifamily operations, self-storage, institutional capital formation, ultra-luxury development, and energy infrastructure.

• Sandhya Seshadri — Founder, Engineered Capital | 3,000+ multifamily doors | $200M in assets | Dallas-Fort Worth
• Paul Bennett — President, Triple A Storage | 90 full-cycle deals | ~20% avg returns | 32 years in CRE
• Jeremy Dyer — VP of Capital Formation, Rise48 Equity | $2.4B in transactions | $750M passive equity | Phoenix
• Samuel Coon — Four Seasons Private Residences Lake Austin | 210 acres | $4.6M–$50M residences
• Courtney Moeller — Fund Manager, Iron Horse Fund I | Navy veteran | $100M fund | 100+ wells drilled

Five different lanes. One room. The RSVP list is getting heavy.

In this episode, we break down why the post is spreading, what it actually says, and why the commercial real estate world can't stop talking about it.

• The Diagnosis — The conference circuit isn't tired. It's dead. Same recycled panels. Same sponsors buying stage time. Adam and Cameron said: "If no one's going to build the room, we will."
• The Paradox — Free general admission. Capped at 500. It's like a Michelin-star restaurant that doesn't charge for dinner but only serves 500 people a year. You don't argue about the menu. You figure out how to be one of the 500.
• The Weight of the Room — Joe Fairless ($2.7B AUM). Michael J. Flight (Godfather of Blockchain Real Estate). Sunrise Capital ($400M AUM, 33 consecutive quarters of distributions). Petr Krovina (Chief of Staff of Liberland). When a sovereign nation's Chief of Staff shows up, it's not another panel about duplexes.
• The Architecture — Problem. Villain. Heroes. Invitation. This post isn't built like a flyer. It's built like a manifesto. And people share missions faster than they share marketing.

Read the LinkedIn post: Adam Carswell on LinkedIn

In this episode, we break down the current state of commercial real estate across six key sectors with real numbers, real pitfalls, and real opportunities:

• Multifamily — Supply wave receding. Austin permits down 97%. Assets trading at 20% discounts. Fannie/Freddie with $176B ready to deploy.
• Self-Storage — REITs up 17% YTD. Climate-controlled units commanding 50-80% premiums. AI pricing tools driving 5-8% revenue boosts.
• Mobile Home Parks — 95%+ occupancy. Only 38% of US households can afford a traditional home. Private equity rent hikes triggering regulatory backlash.
• Single Family Rental — Occupancy above 95% since 2018. 14.6M SFR households. Insurance and tax increases eating real returns.
• Short-Term Rentals — 84,000 new listings. Occupancy down 8.6%. ADRs up 6% YoY. Regulations tightening coast to coast.
• Office — Vacancy 19-23% nationally. CMBS delinquencies past 2008 levels. $875B in CRE loans maturing in 2026. Conversion plays emerging.

Data sourced from Grok, X, CBRE, Deloitte, Principal, MetLife, BiggerPockets, and more. We're AI. Use this as a starting point, not a finish line.

In this episode, we break down five more confirmed names heading to the room:

• Gary Lipsky — CEO, Break of Day Capital. 3,000+ units. $300M+ in transaction value. 90% of his net worth in his own deals.
• Alan Pavlosky — Legacy All Stars Podcast. 30 years with pro athletes, executives, and public figures.
• Jonny Cattani & Sunrise Capital Investors — $400M AUM. 33 consecutive quarters of distributions. 1,000+ accredited investors served.
• Petr Krovina — Chief of Staff, Free Republic of Liberland. Blockchain governance. Bitcoin as legal tender. Represented at Davos.
• Ben Malech — Associate, Quantum Capital Partners. $22.65M permanent loan arranged.

Free general admission. Limited to 500.

Joe Fairless — Co-founder of Ashcroft Capital. $2.7 billion in assets under management. Over 10,000 multifamily units. Left Madison Avenue in 2012, raised $843K from 12 people, and never stopped. Founded the Best Ever CRE Show — 3,700+ episodes and counting.

Mathew Owens — OCG Properties, Manhattan Beach, CA. CPA who started flipping in 2006 and went full-time real estate. Raised over $150 million in private investor capital. 1,500+ units owned. 700+ completed projects over 10+ years. Zero investor losses.

Tait Duryea — Third-generation airline captain. 12,000+ flight hours. Founded Turbine Capital in April 2020 when flights were grounded. Built a real estate PE firm for pilots. First year: raised $2.5M, placed $5.38M with operators.

Wayne Courreges III — U.S. Marine Corps Corporal. Bought his first property at 19 while active duty. 16 years at CBRE. MBA from UNC. Founded CREI Partners. $60M portfolio in multifamily and industrial outdoor storage.

Scott Kidd — 20+ years as a professional yacht captain. Started with $20 and a plane ticket. Now a multifamily syndicator in Florida. Hosts the Yacht Captain Investor podcast.

Spots are filling fast. Once this room is full, it's full.

Before Airbnb had ten listings in the entire city of Miami, Laz was already stacking reservations.

He started selling Bentleys, Rolls-Royces, and Bugattis. Best year? $400K. Then he bet everything on a cigar lounge and lost $2.5 million. House gone. Savings gone.

All he had left was a real estate license and the audacity to knock on doors in Little Haiti when everyone else called it the ghetto.

He rented every house on the block. Put them all on Airbnb. Bought a tiny house for $1,500 off Facebook Marketplace and turned it into a destination. Built systems that became the regulatory blueprint for short-term rentals in the entire state of Florida.

Made $500K in two days selling mentorships. Highest ticket? $22,000. And unlike the gurus who never owned a single listing... Laz had receipts.

Last deal? Turned a $500K property into a $2M exit in seven months.

Spots are limited. When this room is full, it's full.

Senate Eskridge — Twin Falls, Idaho. 847+ units. $15M raised. Runs the Magic Valley Real Estate Investors Meetup and helps organize the Idaho Real Estate Conference.

Fletcher Wheaton — Cabo San Lucas. Co-founder of the Cabo Real Estate Summit. Hosts the "Real Estate Without Borders" podcast.

Marco Pfeiffer — Managing Principal at Opportunistic Capital Group. ~40 doors across Alabama and Florida. Quit his W-2 in 2020.

Michael Roberts — JETVEND (jets.aero), Ocala, FL. Aircraft broker serving real estate developers, construction firms, hospitals, casinos, and sports teams.

Chris Larsen — Founder of Next Level Income, Asheville, NC. $1.5B+ in acquisitions. All-American cyclist. Author of "Next-Level Income."

Logan Freeman — Midwest CRE Advisors, Kansas City. AI-driven analytics. Former Oakland Raiders undrafted free agent. $350M+ in transactions. "Mr. Kansas City."

This is what happens when you build a room the right way. The right people show up.

Spots are limited. When they're gone, they're gone.

Michael J. Flight – 34 years in commercial real estate, $600M+ in transactions, CEO of Liberty Real Estate Fund, and Forbes' "Godfather of Blockchain Real Estate." Legend status.

M.C. Laubscher – The Cash Flow Ninja. 849+ podcast episodes downloaded in 180 countries. His guest list includes Robert Kiyosaki, Grant Cardone, Patrick Bet-David, Jim Rogers, Doug Casey, and Anthony Pompliano. Forbes Finance Council member. Confirmed speaker with exclusive content he's preparing specifically for this room.

This is what happens when you build a room the right way. The right people show up.

Spots are limited. When they're gone, they're gone.

Because nobody in the history of conferences has ever dreaded a trip to Miami.

But this isn't just vibes and palm trees. Miami has quietly become one of the most important commercial real estate markets in the country.

The Numbers

• South Florida posted $16 billion in commercial real estate sales in 2025 — highest since 2017
• Investment sales surged 35% year-over-year
• CBRE ranked Miami the #2 target city for CRE investment, with 70% of investors planning to acquire more
• Office vacancy in Miami-Dade dropped 70 basis points — one of the best improvements in the country
• Class A rents in Brickell pushing $73/sq ft, up over 50% since 2020
• 127 companies relocated to Miami-Dade since 2020, occupying 2.2 million square feet

This isn't a beach town with some office buildings. This is an institutional-grade market that happens to have incredible weather.

The Cardone Effect

Love him or hate him, Grant Cardone put Miami on the map for commercial real estate. $5 billion AUM. 10X Corporate Centre in North Miami. Real Estate Summits drawing thousands. He didn't just invest in Miami — he branded it.

What's Next

The first three episodes were the foundation. Origin. Vision. City. Now the podcast pivots into what's actually moving in commercial real estate — capital raising, fund structures, LP psychology, deal flow, and the trends shaping the market heading into 2026 and beyond.

The room is being built. Tell your wife to start packing.

500 isn't a cap. It's the foundation. Year one. The floor, not the ceiling.

This is modeled after what a good friend has built in a completely different sector - a resource investment conference that started in a room and grew into one of the biggest gatherings in its entire industry. Same playbook, applied to commercial real estate.

The first 500 people set the DNA. Fund managers. Operators. Capital raisers. LPs who actually deploy. When this grows, the people in the room for year one are the ones who shaped the culture.

Limited spots. When they're gone, they're gone.

Get in while the getting in is easy. Because next year, you're going to wish you did.

Two guys noticed it: Adam Carswell and Cameron Iuvancigh. They've been in these rooms for years. They watched the quality nosedive. Instead of complaining about it, they decided to build the room themselves.

That's how this was born.

World-class speakers who've done the thing they're talking about. An exhibition hall designed for real conversations and serious deal flow. Limited spots. When they're gone, they're gone.

If you're going to be in one room this year, make it this one.