Confluence Podcasts

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer (3/30/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:52:00 -0500

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – From the Shah to the Strait: The US Gamble to Stabilize the Gulf (3/23/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:48:00 -0500

Investors have already experienced dramatic initial volatility, but it appears that the war in Iran may also have significant long-term impacts on the financial markets. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what these impacts might be.

The Confluence Mailbag – From Iran to AI: Making Sense of Today’s Markets (3/19/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 09:11:13 -0500

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller tackle some pressing market topics, opening with a nuanced look at how the conflict in Iran might unfold and what current market expectations may be overlooking. They discuss the concentration risk embedded in passive investing and how investors can navigate it, before turning to the shifting dynamics and recent headlines in private credit, including their perspective on the implications for BDCs. The episode concludes with a forward‑looking conversation about whether the rise of artificial intelligence could reshape the financial advice industry.

Confluence of Ideas – The Case for Hard Assets: An Update for 2026 (3/17/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 08:37:04 -0500

Now is a great time to revisit the Case for Hard Assets, an investment area that’s drawing considerable interest these days. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O’Grady draws on his deep expertise in commodities to explain the asset class and the firm’s Global Hard Assets strategy. He outlines the investment team’s macro-driven decision‑making process, offers insight into the current portfolio, and shares his outlook for the asset class, highlighting the key factors driving renewed appeal for hard assets in today’s market environment.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Long-Term Treasurys No Longer a Safe Haven? (3/16/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 07:29:18 -0500

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this question has obvious implications for investment strategies.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of US Dollar Stablecoins (3/13/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 14:28:53 -0500

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Dip That Didn’t Bounce (3/6/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 14:23:49 -0600

Younger investors appear to have more influence on the stock market than they used to and there are signs that they are becoming more cautious. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash explores what may be driving this shift and the potential fallout in this week's report. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on March 2, 2026.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great Chinese Purge (2/27/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 16:39:51 -0600

The subject this week is China and how the purge of government officials going on inside that country might eventually impact investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez lends us his perspective, gained from his many years of experience in both the financial and government sectors. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on February 23, 2026.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2026

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:07:24 -0600

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Warsh Doctrine (2/17/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:01:00 -0600

President Trump has made it obvious he wants a Federal Reserve chair who will push for lower interest rates. Does Kevin Warsh fit the bill? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Walsh joins Phil Adler to tell us the answer is complicated.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Foreign Policy: Comparing the New vs the Old (2/9/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 00:28:00 -0600

A close look at changes taking place in US foreign policy can be revealing from an investment standpoint. Recent changes have been sharp, but it's natural to question their staying power. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses this and related issues in his latest report today comparing the new US foreign policy versus the old.

The Confluence Mailbag – Global Shifts and the Next Market Drivers (2/5/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 10:21:50 -0600

Confluence’s first Mailbag Podcast episode of the year is a wide-ranging conversation on geopolitics and evolving market trends. Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller explore whether Latin America could emerge as a key low-cost producer in a deglobalizing world and the resulting investment opportunities. The discussion also covers current US dollar policy and the challenges of currency forecasting, signs of a meaningful market rotation following years of US large cap growth dominance, limitations of LLMs within the broader AI boom, the forces driving the surge in precious metals, and implications of Canada’s new trade deal with China.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege (2/2/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:32:00 -0600

Long-term government debt issued by advanced economies seems like a less attractive investment these days for safety conscious investors. In his latest report, Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash calls this "The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege" for these advanced economies, and Thomas joins Phil Adler to explain why this development has significant implications for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies (1/26/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 14:28:48 -0600

After a year in office, it is becoming a little bit easier to categorize the Trump administration's foreign policy and to build an investment strategy around it. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss his latest report titled "Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies," making the case that America's foreign policy is evolving to a new kind of imperialism.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the New US National Security Strategy (1/12/2026)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 07:59:13 -0600

A new security strategy for the United States delivers a strong message for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to fill investors in.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – America’s AI Buildout and Its Market Risks (1/12/26)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 07:29:58 -0600

The enormous investment in data centers to support AI development has carried the S&P 500 index to record highs. The index rose more than 16% last year, but this same investment surge may have created some market risks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how long this massive investment may continue and what might happen to the broader economy when it ends.

The Confluence Mailbag – Money, Market Risks, and Investing in a Multipolar World (12/29/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 00:05:00 -0600

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller close out the final episode of the year by examining some key factors shaping markets heading into 2026 — from China’s growing gold purchases and efforts to build an alternative to the dollar system, to what a more dovish Fed could mean for the dollar and bonds. They discuss the risk of earnings disappointment next year, the importance of maintaining investment discipline amid market temptations, and their outlook for hard assets in a world shifting toward a multipolar global order.

To have your question answered in a future episode, email: mailbag@confluenceim.com.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2026 Geopolitical Outlook (12/15/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 00:21:00 -0600

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2026. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including stablecoins, spheres of influence, and data centers.

Confluence of Ideas - 2026 Outlook: Implications of the New Techno-Industrial State

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 09:55:29 -0600

Confluence's official 2026 Outlook anticipates a reacceleration of the economy next year and a low risk of recession. Three of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Advisory Director - Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and discuss how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What Catch-Up Economic Reports Say About the AI Boom (12/8/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 00:56:00 -0600

Late arriving economic reports have delivered mixed results on the health of the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss takeaways for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2026 (11/17/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 07:37:58 -0600

Social Security has been, over the years, a slowly expanding support prop for the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact of the Social Security cost of living adjustment for 2026.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Sanae Takaichi (10/27/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 07:32:46 -0600

The policies of the new Japanese prime minister may provide a boost for Japanese stocks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what the election of Sanae Takaichi means for investors.

The Confluence Mailbag – Escalation Dominance and the Costs of a Recession-Free World (11/5/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 05 Nov 2025 13:56:05 -0600

In this episode, Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include the forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and their outlook for gold.

Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q4 2025

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 10:10:00 -0600

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – When the Financial System Finds a Cockroach (11/3/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 07:25:09 -0600

Consumer debt levels are heading higher. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss if this trend threatens to derail the economy and infect the markets.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China's Rising Power and the Implications for US Hegemony (10/27/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 09:37:48 -0500

China's advantage over the United States in key military and economic areas appears to be widening this year. It's possible to see that in the way trade talks have evolved, and that leaves investors with some important choices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to bring investors up to date.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Debasement Hedge: A Tale of Two Safeties (10/20/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 20 Oct 2025 00:03:00 -0500

The surging price of gold and rising stock indices seems to be an unlikely pairing. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this might constitute a pivot point for the markets and for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why the US Is Offering to Bail Out Argentina (10/13/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 Oct 2025 00:48:00 -0500

Why did The US offer a $20 billion bailout to Argentina? Are there clear cut takeaways for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to tackle these questions.

The Confluence Mailbag – Dollar Dynamics and the Future of Fed Independence (10/7/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 07:45:10 -0500

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, delve into the connection between US dollar weakness and the performance of international and domestic equities. They also share their outlook for recession risks, Fed independence, and Trump's call for publicly traded companies to shift to semiannual rather than quarterly reporting.

Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The AI Arms Race: Navigating the Divide Between Promise and Profit (10/6/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 00:07:00 -0500

AI related investments have generated impressive results, but a look at how the big tech firms are channeling their current AI expenditures suggests it might be time for investors to put on the brakes at least a little. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Influence on the Wane: New Evidence (9/29/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 29 Sep 2025 00:04:00 -0500

Recent events offer new evidence that US influence around the world is diminishing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss the evidence and how investment strategy might adjust to acknowledge this new geopolitical reality.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Stopping the Bond Vigilante: How Fiscal Dominance Is Reshaping Global Markets (9/22/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 Sep 2025 00:15:00 -0500

With deficits rising, governments may resort to different strategies to help keep interest rates in check. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash examines the landscape for government bonds and the message markets are sending to investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great AI Race: A Sputnik Moment for the 21st Century (9/15/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:26:24 -0500

The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how the future of the global order is at stake and offers some guidelines for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Cap-Weighted and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (9/8/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 08 Sep 2025 00:23:00 -0500

Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explore the distinctions between investing in cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes and offer considerations for investors to assess if now might be time to adjust their approach.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Tariff Trilemma: The Three Rs Driving US Trade Policy (9/2/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 02 Sep 2025 07:33:40 -0500

Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.

The Confluence Mailbag – Small Caps, Stablecoins, and Strategy Shifts (8/20/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:29:00 -0500

In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline in publicly traded companies, and offer a quick insight on tariffs. Finally, they respond to an intriguing question on mine production and opportunities in hard assets.
To submit a question for a future episode, email mailbag@confluenceim.com

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Navigating the Waves of BLS Revisions (8/18/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:05:00 -0500

Can we rely on government statistics to help guide our investment decisions? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss the recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that raised doubts about the economy and prompted the president to fire a top official.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on US and China Defense Spending (8/11/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Aug 2025 07:43:07 -0500

The race between the United States and China for military superiority might be a lot more complicated and worrisome than the headline numbers suggest. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler with an update on US and Chinese defense spending and why it matters for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – No Country for Recessions (8/8/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 08 Aug 2025 12:32:19 -0500

Are investors right to downplay the risk of recession? It certainly looks like the markets have been acting that way this year. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler on this day in early August to discuss whether we might have less to fear than we traditionally have assumed.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q3 2025

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 28 Jul 2025 09:29:55 -0500

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict (7/28/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 28 Jul 2025 00:10:00 -0500

This year's turmoil in the Middle East appears to strengthen the case for investment strategies that Confluence Investment Management has maintained over recent months. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Stablecoin: Treasury's Next Big Bet? (7/21/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 21 Jul 2025 00:39:00 -0500

The US Treasury is looking for answers as it eyes higher interest rates in an environment of uncertain demand for rising US debt. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why stablecoins, a cryptocurrency, may be a partial solution.

Confluence of Ideas – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook 2025

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 18 Jul 2025 08:35:35 -0500

In this Mid-Year 2025 report subtitled "Searching for the Endgames," Confluence analysts join Phil Adler to take a fresh look at key geopolitical trends and identify potential opportunities for investors.

The Confluence Mailbag – Our Top Issues, Tariffs, and the Changing Policy Landscape (7/15/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 15 Jul 2025 17:38:13 -0500

In this month’s episode, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, share their market outlooks and what they view as the biggest threat to the markets over the next three years. They also address whether shifting government policies influence Confluence’s investment process, what tariffs mean for Wall Street, the economic impact of birth rates and immigration, and the future of Fed independence.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Hidden Battle in the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" (6/30/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 30 Jun 2025 00:15:00 -0500

Tax and spending bills always have the potential to shake up the financial markets. One provision inside this year's bill gets some special attention in this week's report. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist, Thomas Wash, joins Phil Adler to discuss Section 899, also known as the revenge tax.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Introducing Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany (6/23/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:08:00 -0500

It may be logical to assume that economically speaking as Germany goes, so goes Europe. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler with a profile of Germany's new chancellor and what investors can expect from his leadership.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Economy That Won't Die (6/16/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 Jun 2025 07:23:37 -0500

The economy and the stock market have been resilient in the face of soft looking economic data, a troubling bond market, and warnings by economists that a recession is drawing ever closer. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why, so far, this is an economy that won't die.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – NATO's Baltic Vulnerability: Implications for Europe (6/13/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 10:57:24 -0500

Europe's potential as an investment destination appears bright but realizing that potential depends on how the continent responds to the new geopolitics and the military threat from Russia. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a key region where Europe is vulnerable, the Baltics.

The Confluence Mailbag – A Mixed Bag of Bonds, Buffett, Defense, and Crypto (6/10/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 12:50:21 -0500

In our new podcast series, Confluence will address your most frequent, thought-provoking, and insightful questions, drawing on our years of experience and expertise. The inaugural episode features Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, as they discuss a range of timely topics from changes in the 10-year Treasury to global defense spending in the current geopolitical environment, AI implications, and crypto considerations.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Japan Problem (6/2/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:05:00 -0500

The recent sharp sell off in Japanese bonds has worrisome implications for investors across the globe. Confluence Associate Market Analyst Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss where this might be heading.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why Greenland Matters (5/27/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 27 May 2025 00:53:00 -0500

The US attention paid to Greenland, which has created headlines recently, should not be ignored by investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler today to discuss why Greenland matters.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – White House vs. The Fed: The Looming Battle for US Monetary Policy (5/19/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 19 May 2025 13:52:11 -0500

President Trump has withdrawn his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for the time being, but the administration continues to criticize the Fed for postponing interest rate cuts and for its quantitative tightening policy, which increases the amount of bonds available in the market and thus requires higher interest rates to attract buyers. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Fed's independence is truly at risk and what this might mean for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the US-China Military Balance of Power (5/16/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 16 May 2025 07:54:03 -0500

The race between the United States and China for military superiority will continue to have major implications for investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to give us an update on the US-China military balance of power.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q2 2025

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 14 May 2025 07:46:20 -0500

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – US Capital Flight and the Implications for Investors (5/5/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 05 May 2025 17:07:35 -0500

Oh, what a difference one quarter can make! The mood has certainly changed on Wall Street since the beginning of the year as investors seem to be losing confidence in US economic growth. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez reminds us what the market expectations were like back in January, examines the current evidence of what may be ahead for US investments, and discusses the implications for world financial markets going forward.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War (5/2/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 02 May 2025 12:34:56 -0500

Tariffs may be the most noticeable but they're not the only strategy in the economic conflict between the US and China. In this episode, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how export controls are amplifying the conflict and the message for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – From Magnificent 7 to European Revival (4/14/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Apr 2025 00:02:00 -0500

The recent outperformance of European stocks has been noteworthy. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this may only be the beginning.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Growing Fragility in the US Bloc (4/7/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 07 Apr 2025 07:08:05 -0500

Should the current strain in traditional US alliances prompt investors to consider an immediate strategy adjustment? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to answer that question and explain the detailed approach Confluence takes to evaluate this issue.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Managing an Economic Slowdown (3/31/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 31 Mar 2025 07:29:13 -0500

It appears a slowdown now underway may be part of the Trump administration's economic plan. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses why investors should pay close attention to how well any slowdown is managed.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bessent Gambit (3/28/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 28 Mar 2025 08:23:32 -0500

Are Trump tariffs working as the administration expected? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to unpack the Trump strategy and give us some advice about dealing with extreme market volatility and risk.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Equities as an Inflation Hedge? (3/17/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:11:00 -0500

It might be time to take a new look at the relationship between inflation and stock market performance. The old adage is that inflation is bad for stocks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth suggests that it might be wiser today to view equities as an inflation hedge.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – United Arab Emirates: An Overview (3/10/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 13 Mar 2025 13:37:09 -0500

Many stock markets in The Middle East are growing in market cap, and investors are paying attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to take a closer look at one of the recent standouts, United Arab Emirates, and to tackle the question, is it the right time to invest there?

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates (3/3/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Mar 2025 00:04:00 -0600

Mortgage rates in the neighborhood of 7% are dampening housing demand leading into what is normally a busy time of year for sales. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why long-term interest rates have been slow to come down even after the Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sanctions as an Investment Risk (2/24/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 00:05:00 -0600

In an increasingly confrontational world, you can add sanctions to what seems like an expanding field of investment risks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to help investors identify and respond to sanctions risk.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Our Take on the Initial Trump Tariffs (2/18/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 00:47:00 -0600

The initial Trump tariffs did have an impact on financial markets, but the takeaway might not be what many investors expect. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how we might fold what we've learned so far about the Trump tariffs into our investment strategies.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2025

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 12 Feb 2025 09:26:30 -0600

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle Eastern Stock Markets: An Overview (2/10/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Feb 2025 07:45:38 -0600

Listeners might be surprised to learn which foreign stock markets are growing the fastest. Growth is not necessarily a reason to invest in these markets, but they might deserve a second look, and Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to provide just that.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – American Exceptionalism and the Markets (2/3/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Feb 2025 00:02:00 -0600

Investors looking for the next big opportunity might do best by not straying too far afield. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss why the US economy and US stocks still look plenty attractive.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (1/27/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 27 Jan 2025 00:06:00 -0600

American foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on the potential upsides and downsides of these changes and how they might impact investments.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Magnificent 7 to the Rescue! (1/21/25)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 21 Jan 2025 00:05:00 -0600

For years, US Treasury bonds have been viewed as a safe-haven place for investors to hold cash, both to stabilize portfolios and await future opportunities. But perhaps that is no longer the case. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Magnificent 7 stocks have become a legitimate safe haven.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (1/13/2025)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:05:00 -0600

The regime change in Syria has sent shock ways across the Middle East. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to look at what might be going on beneath the surface and help investors understand the potential impact on portfolios.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 Dec 2024 00:05:00 -0600

Confluence's official 2025 Outlook anticipates continued-but-moderating economic growth, sticky inflation, and limited interest rate cuts, which will lay the ground work for the asset class returns in the new year. One of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, joins the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Confluence of Ideas – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 00:02:00 -0600

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Household Cash Levels and the S&P 500 (12/9/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 Dec 2024 00:03:00 -0600

When one looks at the total world of investing, it makes sense that a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But, clearly, that equation has not been working lately. Bill O'Grady, Advisory Director of Market Strategy at Confluence, discusses what this might portend for the stock market.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Bonds and the Post-Election Environment (11/25/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 25 Nov 2024 00:02:00 -0600

How did the decisive November election results impact the bond market? Contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses the post-election environment for bonds.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (11/18/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:03:00 -0600

Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of this week's discussion: North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to explain why investors should take notice.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q4 2024

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 11:00:34 -0600

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Let's Talk About Tariffs! (11/11/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 00:02:00 -0600

There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also have been described as inflation boosters and a tax on the American consumer. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to sort out the arguments and discuss the investment implications of increased tariffs.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (11/4/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:55:25 -0600

We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to take us on a deeper dive into our debt situation with the goal of adding some perspective.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025 (10/28/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 28 Oct 2024 00:05:00 -0500

The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel's Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (10/21/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 00:05:00 -0500

National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explore how this groundbreaking attack will likely lead to costly changes in global supply chains and how investment strategies may face a reckoning as well.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (10/14/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Oct 2024 00:05:00 -0500

Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Elections: Foreign Policy Implications (10/7/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 07 Oct 2024 09:06:12 -0500

As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash discuss those differences and what they could mean for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Presidential Cycles and Stock Performance (9/30/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:02:00 -0500

With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (9/23/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 Sep 2024 10:49:25 -0500

For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Benjamin Button Dividend (9/16/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q3 2024

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 11 Sep 2024 11:20:00 -0500

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings, takes listeners through the investment team's decisions.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Prospects for the Dollar in a Fracturing World (9/9/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 Sep 2024 15:00:00 -0500

Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Activist vs. Accommodative Treasury Issuance (8/26/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 26 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0500

One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and explain the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Price of Central Bank Independence (7/29/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 29 Jul 2024 00:05:00 -0500

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. The bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the executive branch exerted more influence. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses the price we pay for central bank independence and takeaways for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines (7/22/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 Jul 2024 00:03:00 -0500

China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year. In this episode, Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth makes the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcomes.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A New Factor for Gold Prices (7/15/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:02:00 -0500

A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses why investors should take notice.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU Parliamentary Elections: New Strength for the Right (7/1/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 14:31:08 -0500

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins host Phil Adler to give an overview and discuss investment opportunities that may have been created as a result.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Small Caps and the Hope for a Soft Landing (6/24/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:33:40 -0500

Small cap stocks may be poised for a rebound. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to explain why.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (6/17/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Welcome to the Mid-Year Outlook from Confluence Investment Management. Several Confluence macro analysts join the podcast to discuss this report: Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategists Thomas Wash and Daniel Ortwerth. Some of the themes discussed this week will be familiar to regular listeners of our bi-weekly geopolitical episodes, but mid-year is a good time to sharpen our geopolitical focus as a key part of our framework for investment strategy.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Copper, Gold, Treasurys, and the New World (6/10/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Jun 2024 07:31:06 -0500

A comparison between copper and gold prices has in the past been a reasonably reliable predictor of bond yields, but it looks like this indicator no longer works. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why this is so.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Philippines, China & Escalation in the South China Sea (6/3/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 00:01:00 -0500

The South China Sea is yet another geopolitical danger zone in a rapidly dividing world that demands investor attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the history of a territorial dispute that has the potential to erupt.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Importance of the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target (5/28/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 28 May 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Inflation in the United States may be cooling somewhat, but we are still not close to achieving the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the 2% target might change and how markets might react to that.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Immigration Paradox (5/13/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 May 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Immigration is certainly one of the top political issues that Americans are considering this election year. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain how investors might fold this issue, with all its complexities, into their investment strategies.

Confluence of Ideas - Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q2 2024

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 08 May 2024 00:01:00 -0500

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle East: Land of Fault Lines (5/6/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 07 May 2024 07:40:44 -0500

As the conflict in Gaza and the protests command our attention, a better understanding of the deep divisions in the Middle East might increase our confidence as we make key investment decisions. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins host Phil Adler to help us gain perspective.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Changing Face of War (4/22/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 00:02:00 -0500

The changing face of war makes it difficult for investors to identify exactly when war begins, when it ends, and when is the right time to implement a war-time investment strategy. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth offers some guidance.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Incremental Uranium Demand for Weapons (4/15/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 Apr 2024 00:02:00 -0500

The recent rally in the price of uranium appears to be more than just a flash in the pan. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a major reason for this development that may be somewhat overlooked.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Is Japan Back? (4/8/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 08 Apr 2024 08:11:35 -0500

The Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index was among the best performing in the world in 2023 and recently reached an all-time high. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for the surge and whether there is room to grow from here.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela Threatens Guyana (3/25/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan aren't the only hotspots in the world. In South America, oil-rich Venezuela is threatening its much smaller neighbor Guyana, which recently came into major oil reserves of its own. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to unravel the history of this dispute, discuss what's at stake for the US, and why investors should pay attention.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Fed's Other Policy Tool (3/18/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Mar 2024 00:02:00 -0500

Sometimes words can be just as powerful or even more so than actions. Just consider the Federal Reserve. Fed officials can greatly influence investor behavior by the words they speak or write. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how the Federal Reserve may be employing the spoken or written word, specifically with its forward guidance tool, to create a range for 10-year Treasury yields and how investors may profit as a result.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rebirth of US Nuclear Deterrence (3/11/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Mar 2024 07:55:33 -0500

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Uranium Demand, Supply, and Investment Prospects (3/4/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 04 Mar 2024 00:00:00 -0600

In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what drove Confluence to make this new investment and what they expect from it in the future.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Posen vs. Pettis (2/26/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 26 Feb 2024 00:03:00 -0600

China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Who Wants US Treasurys? (2/20/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 00:02:00 -0600

The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navigate this changing environment.

Confluence of Ideas - Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2024

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 13 Feb 2024 11:15:00 -0600

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking About Deterrence (2/12/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 12 Feb 2024 00:02:00 -0600

As the US slowly withdraws from its status as the world's policeman and as countries realign into separate economic and political blocs, both the strategies and the costs of preventing war change. As the task of preventing war becomes more difficult, the risks change as well. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth discuss these important trends and what the implications will be for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - U.S. Oil Production at a Record High (2/5/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 05 Feb 2024 00:01:00 -0600

It may come as a bit of a surprise that oil production in the U.S. has reached a record high. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for this surge in production and the impact on prices and investments.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Introducing the U.S. Space Force (1/29/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 29 Jan 2024 00:02:00 -0600

The creation of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 did not come out of the blue but recognized a new reality. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth asserts that investors should pay attention.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - How Does Powell Define Restrictive Monetary Policy? (1/22/24)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:02:00 -0600

A sometimes overlooked financial report may give us insight about the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What if Russia Wins in Ukraine? (1/16/2024)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 16 Jan 2024 00:05:00 -0600

The war in Ukraine seems to have entered a new phase. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez considers what investors might do to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Dec 2023 10:30:00 -0600

Confluence's official 2024 Outlook anticipates a slowing U.S. economy and continued risk of recession. As the title of the report indicates, economic activity with slowing momentum is more susceptible to a negative shock. The co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of their expectations and how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Dec 2023 10:40:20 -0600

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2024. The first issue discussed is titled “the jungle grows back,” which could also be considered the overall theme of the report. As U.S. hegemony wanes, long-forgotten conflicts are reigniting, thus increasing global turmoil and forcing the U.S. to manage multiple fronts. The discussion also touches on the spate of elections next year, including the U.S. elections in November. Finally, Bill and Patrick examine China-U.S. tensions and the continued evolution of the two major global blocs, and provide commentary on the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - A Pause That Refreshes? (12/4/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 00:00:00 -0600

For stock investors, the initial rally was impressive, but does the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate hikes signal the market's advance has room to grow further? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to tell us the answer is a bit complicated.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Reflections on Earnings (11/20/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 08:00:27 -0600

With the latest quarterly earnings reports now in the books, now might be a good time to step back and look at earnings from a different angle as we try to anticipate future stock market performance. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady has been doing just that and joins us today to discuss a chart that might help us.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise (11/13/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 Nov 2023 00:05:00 -0600

Our government's foreign policy can seriously impact our investment accounts, but because these policy decisions often involve difficult and immediate trade-offs, it can be challenging for us as investors to recognize and take advantage of long-term trends. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to offer a framework that can guide us.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2024 (11/6/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0600

The annual Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 was announced in October and Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to discuss the potential impact of this 3.2% hike on spending, the economy, and the federal deficit.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the Israel-Hamas Conflict (10/30/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 30 Oct 2023 00:05:00 -0500

The conflict in the Middle East has plenty of investment implications. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines how the current fighting might play out and what it means for the markets.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - A Regime Change in Bonds? (10/23/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 00:01:00 -0500

Widely accepted rules that have for many years defined the behavior of long-term bonds might be changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to suggest why savvy investors might want to revisit some of these time-worn formulas.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Shall We Call the New Era? (10/16/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

As investors, we can sometimes be sidetracked by news events that seem huge at the time they happen. Many times we can make wiser decisions by stepping back to survey the bigger picture. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins us today to help us do just that.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The FOMC in 2024 (10/9/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 00:04:00 -0500

Financial markets can be extremely sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Perhaps not so much what the Fed has done, but what it might do. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady examines how the changing composition of the Federal Open Market Committee, which votes on monetary policy, may offer some clues about its future actions.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Oil Weapon Returns (10/2/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 02 Oct 2023 09:14:44 -0500

Once again, oil is being wielded as a weapon, not only to boost revenue for producers, but also to achieve geopolitical goals. Where does it go from here? Can we see an end to this particular cycle of production cuts and rising prices? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady addresses these questions.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Where's the Recession? A Recap (9/2523)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 25 Sep 2023 00:00:00 -0500

When we began the year, there was a general consensus that a recession was near. So far, the economy appears to have avoided a downturn. Over the past few months, several Confluence Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly reports have covered various aspects regarding why that is, and this week Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to recap these reports and discuss any changes that have emerged since they were written. But first, Bill answers the question, "Why is recession forecasting so difficult?"

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye, Prigozhin (9/18/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Sep 2023 14:00:00 -0500

This week's episode examines the apparent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a member of Putin's inner circle and head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary operation. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the rumors surrounding Prigozhin's demise, including the likely culprits and their potential motives, and the broader ramifications of this situation.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Fiscal Tightening Looms (9/11/23)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Sep 2023 00:05:00 -0500

In recent quarters, investors have focused heavily on issues such as consumer price inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Now, however, rising fiscal deficits and congressional bickering over the federal debt have brought the attention back to fiscal policy. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss the government's recent fiscal trends and what that means for the economy and investing going forward.

Confluence of Ideas - The Economics of Defense in Great Power Competition

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 22 Aug 2023 10:06:29 -0500

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sits down with Phil Adler to discuss Great Power competition and the economics of national defense. In the absence of Great Power competition, defense spending is usually concentrated on defense companies. However, under conditions of Great Power competition, a “whole-of-economy” approach to national defense tends to evolve. Civilian companies become more involved in the defense effort, and societies need to make the “guns and butter” tradeoffs. Patrick and Phil discuss how the current iteration of national defense spending will likely be different than what was seen during the Cold War.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (8/14/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Aug 2023 11:10:59 -0500

A U.S. recession due to higher interest rates no longer seems imminent as the rate of inflation has been falling and the unemployment rate is near a 60-year low. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss one of the main reasons we have avoided a recession so far – the tight labor market – and whether we can expect labor conditions to remain tight in the months ahead.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Part-Time Troubles (7/31/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 09:21:49 -0500

Fixation on headline economic numbers can lead to inaccurate conclusions. A recent example is the performance of major stock indexes, which it turns out has been greatly influenced lately by a very small number of stocks. Overreliance on headline numbers can also be costly for investors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to dig deeper into one of our favorite headline numbers: the unemployment rate. What is it really telling us?

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China's Collapsing Population (7/24/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Jul 2023 11:25:24 -0500

In Confluence's Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook, we recognize China's youth unemployment and China's debt problem as two major issues for investors to keep tabs on in the months ahead. But there's one significant negative trend in China which may be an underlying cause of many other problems the country faces and could be beyond its ability to solve. In this episode, Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the causes and impact of China's collapsing population.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Are Higher Interest Rates Bearish for Risk Assets? (7/17/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Jul 2023 09:03:20 -0500

Are higher interest rates bearish for risk assets? This may seem to be an easy question, but perhaps the answer is not so simple. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to broaden our perspective.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2023 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 12:00:00 -0500

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash discuss the firm’s mid-year geopolitical update. This edition’s theme is “Welcome to the Polycrisis.” Confluence’s macro team lays out the large number of geopolitical concerns that could affect markets for the rest of 2023. This podcast accompanies the in-depth Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report also published on July 10, 2023.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Green Shoots of Re-Industrialization (7/3/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Economic data lately can seem unusually confusing. Even though inflation has raised the cost of living significantly compared to two years ago, the economy continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low even as some big companies announce job cuts. And while economic indicators point to a slowdown in the months ahead, the stock market doesn't seem to believe it. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to talk about one data point that appears to be showing very strong numbers: private nonresidential construction.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Distinguishing My Wife From a Hat, an AI Story (6/26/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 14:06:19 -0500

We may be getting a glimpse of what artificial intelligence (AI) can do and the tasks it can perform...but we may be slower to understand exactly HOW it does so. Becoming familiar, at least on a basic level, of the HOW might help us understand AI's potential and limitations and might even guide us toward proper investment decisions.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Great Divergence (6/20/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 20 Jun 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The S&P 500 has performed very well in 2023, but market internals paint a less healthy picture. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us to discuss the stock market's uneven performance so far this year and what this may portend.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Issue of the Terms of Trade (6/16/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 16 Jun 2023 08:25:30 -0500

For many years now, the need for oil has been a primary driver of foreign policy, not just for the U.S. but for nations around the world. For the U.S., a dominant dollar has been a key tool in the past to assure an adequate supply of oil, but today the energy landscape is changing. To accompany the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on June 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss how the U.S. dollar policy seems to be changing as well and possible investment implications.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Weak Capital Investment by State and Local Governments (6/5/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 05 Jun 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Underinvesting can have serious long-term consequences, and in the U.S., government underinvestment in one key area is a worrisome trend. Investors might be surprised by just how much government spending contributes to overall GDP. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the latest numbers.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China's New National Security Law (5/30/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 30 May 2023 10:49:35 -0500

A new national security law in China is fresh evidence that the global investment environment is changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how investors can expect this to play out and the potential winners and losers.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Case for New Home Sales (5/22/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 May 2023 00:00:00 -0500

New home sales have been trending higher lately, even with mortgage rates rising rapidly in recent months. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why and discuss whether it's worthwhile to mine this trend for investment opportunities.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Opportunities and Risks in a Tripolar Nuclear World (5/15/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 May 2023 12:06:40 -0500

For almost eight decades now, investors have faced a risk that the world's great powers could come into conflict and unleash devastating nuclear war. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses China's new efforts to build up its nuclear arsenal and why this will likely produce not only risks but also opportunities.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Why We Are Keeping Duration Short (5/8/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 08 May 2023 08:50:29 -0500

The yield curve is inverted, and recession is in the forecast. Recent history suggests investment managers facing these circumstances nearly always recommend longer-term bonds within the fixed income space, but Confluence Investment Management says this time is different. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente (5/1/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 01 May 2023 00:00:00 -0500

A recent agreement brokered by China represents a warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady says this event is noteworthy on several levels. For one thing, it alters the international diplomacy gameboard, and investors may want to keep a close eye on how oil prices react.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Fed's Employment Surprise (4/24/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Apr 2023 17:56:37 -0500

Gains in the U.S. labor market by Black Americans have easily outdistanced gains by white workers, at least by one measure, and those gains continue even as the Federal Reserve persists in raising interest rates. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the history of minority employment in the U.S., what to make of the latest numbers, and whether they present an accurate reading of the economy that the Fed can bank on as it considers future rate decisions.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Intelligence Sharing as a Tool of International Relations (4/17/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Apr 2023 10:00:00 -0500

Access to information has a lot of benefits: it translates to power in the business world and can give investors a leg up. The same rule applies on a grander scale in the world of international relations. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how access to information is a tool the US is using to influence world events and why this is an important subject for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Increasing Concerns About Commercial Real Estate (4/10/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The next big challenge for the banking sector may be tied to commercial real estate. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this week's podcast to explain why and prepare investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Windsor Framework (4/3/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Apr 2023 09:36:09 -0500

Northern Ireland has been a thorn in the side of relations between Great Britain and the European Union for some time. But a recent agreement creates hope that a breakthrough is within sight, with potentially positive ramifications for the British pound and British stocks. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to give us some background on the long conflict and bring us up-to-date.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Have Policymakers Solved the Tinbergen Problem? (3/27/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Turmoil in the financial sector has complicated life for the Federal Reserve. Already facing the challenge of fine-tuning its rate policy between fighting inflation and over-tightening, the Fed may now be compelled to focus, to a greater extent, on protecting the banking system and the economy. It does seem like a tall order. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explores possible resolutions and the potential impact on investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the US-China Military Balance of Power (3/20/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0500

China appears to be emerging every day as a greater military threat to the US. We may be looking at a deepening arms race that not only elevates US security concerns but also creates new boundaries for investors. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez outlines China's military progress in just the past two years, and the numbers are sobering.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Importance of the Policy Mix (3/13/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 Mar 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Investors, be aware: interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may not be enough, on their own, to subdue inflation. The Fed might need some help. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses other key inflation battlefronts that deserve our attention.

Confluence of Ideas - Reflections on Inflation

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 08 Mar 2023 00:00:00 -0600

Bill O’Grady, Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist, sits down with Phil Adler to discuss the subtleties of inflation, specifically, an examination of inflation as the rate of change in a price index and how investors, consumers, and firms can be “fooled” into accepting modest rises in inflation that still reflect weaker purchasing power. This podcast expands upon a recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on February 13, 2023.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Enter the Petroyuan (3/6/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 06 Mar 2023 10:06:31 -0600

Confluence has been suggesting for some time now that the world is in the process of fracturing into two competing economic and geopolitical blocs, one led by China and the other by the US. If this is true, will the dollar remain the world's reserve currency, and should we be alarmed if it doesn't? Should our long-term investment strategy change as a result? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses these questions along with a recent development that is the catalyst for this conversation on the dollar's future.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Federal Reserve Policymakers in 2023: Hawks or Doves? (2/27/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 27 Feb 2023 00:05:00 -0600

Any decision by the FOMC to pause or reverse its current journey toward higher interest rates could trigger a sharp rally in stocks. The question investors want to know is, when? The answer probably depends on a number of factors, including how the Fed measures inflation and the timing/severity of any recession. Confluence spends a lot of time studying these issues and one conclusion the firm has arrived at is that the Fed may be more dovish than the market realizes. In this episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash explores that idea and weighs possible outcomes for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Chip War (2/21/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 21 Feb 2023 10:54:38 -0600

Computers. Banking. Healthcare. Transportation. These are only a few of the industries and social services which rely these days on semiconductors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses their importance, how the need to secure an adequate supply drives many US foreign policy decisions and can shape geopolitical events, and where investment opportunities might exist.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Secular Trends In Bond Yields (2/3/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 03 Feb 2023 00:00:00 -0600

Believing that the secular downtrend in long-term Treasury yields is ending, Confluence has shortened its recommended duration in its fixed income allocations. To accompany the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on January 30, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss why the firm has reached this conclusion about the fixed income markets.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2023 Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 10:30:00 -0600

Confluence's 2023 economic and market forecast leaves no doubt that this will be a recession year. In our published report from December, we discuss data that support this hypothesis and how investors can navigate what's shaping up to be a volatile period in the market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady, co-author of the report, joins the podcast to examine some of its key points.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (1/27/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 09:19:19 -0600

Germany's recent reluctance to provide military equipment to Ukraine could be another sign that the country is uncomfortable with aligning itself too closely to the U.S. and Western allies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses why maintaining a working relationship with Russia and China seems to be so important to Germany and how this may eventually play out geopolitically and in the investment world.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Master of Surprise (1/20/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 20 Jan 2023 08:45:32 -0600

While many of the world's central banks have been pushing up interest rates to dampen inflation, the Bank of Japan has steadfastly refused to follow the crowd. But, there are signs that this behavior may be changing. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash explains why and how it may impact investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (1/17/2023)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 17 Jan 2023 08:45:37 -0600

As the world divides into two main economic and geopolitical camps, one led by the U.S. and the other by China, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency could eventually be challenged. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the contrasting management styles of these two major economic blocs might impact and perhaps create opportunities for investors. [This week's episode coincides with our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on January 9, 2023.]

Confluence of Ideas - The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 19 Dec 2022 10:15:10 -0600

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss their geopolitical outlook for 2023. Topics include the big picture of the post-Cold War deglobalization, China’s management of its emerging bloc, and the “race for space,” among other issues.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Forecasting Financial Stress (12/12/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 12 Dec 2022 00:00:00 -0600

We can expect another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve coming up soon, and a majority of market analysts agree it wont be the last one in this series as the Fed focuses on reducing inflation. There are already some signs that the economy is beginning to slow because of these rate hikes, but what we don't know is when the slowdown might turn into a recession, how deep that recession might be, and when the Fed might eventually reverse policy –as investors we'd certainly like to know. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses where we can look to try to find answers to these questions.

Confluence of Ideas - The Business Cycle Report

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 01 Dec 2022 13:20:46 -0600

Thomas Wash, Confluence Staff Economist, joins host Phil Adler in discussing the firm’s most recent Business Cycle Report. This report details the Confluence Diffusion Index, an indicator of the business cycle. In this podcast, Phil and Thomas discuss the construction of the index and what it is signaling about the economy.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Impossible Trinity (11/14/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 00:00:00 -0600

The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 20-year high in September and current conditions appear to favor continued strength in the greenback against foreign currencies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses what's behind the dollar's strength and the consequences for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the 20th Party Congress (11/7/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 07 Nov 2022 00:00:00 -0600

The latest Communist Party Congress in China provides fresh evidence that investors can no longer rely on the Chinese marketplace to boost the profits of American companies and bolster the U.S. stock market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to analyze just what happened at this recent event and what it might mean for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2023 (10/31/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 31 Oct 2022 01:00:00 -0500

The Social Security cost of living adjustment for next year is the biggest increase in 40 years, at +8.7%. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss how this announcement affects the economy and investments.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Defining Deglobalization (10/24/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 01:00:00 -0500

A deglobalized world in the months and years ahead will probably equate to increasing impediments to global trade, along with rising international tensions and higher inflation. Regular listeners will know that Confluence expects that deglobalization will be a long-term backdrop for investment strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how he defines deglobalization, why he expects this trend to remain so powerful, and how this expectation demands a changing framework for investments.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - An Update on Bonds (10/17/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 17 Oct 2022 07:57:59 -0500

Where are bond yields headed? And what does this mean for bond investors? The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been rising as the Fed increases rates, but it is not in line with Confluence's current estimates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast this week to help us make sense of the current bond market.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe's New, Right-Wing Leaders (10/10/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:05:33 -0500

The emergence of right-wing leaders in Great Britain and Italy adds a new layer of volatility and uncertainty to financial markets in Europe and around the world. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez offers analysis and advice for investors. While there are notable differences between these separate political events, Patrick identifies the key similarities and discusses where these events fit into Confluence's broader outlook for a more divided world.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Gold Paradox (10/3/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Why is gold performance underwhelming in the face of high inflation? We're hearing this question from investors, so Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady takes a look at gold this week and adds some color to the research discussed in our associated written report.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Updates on Russia-Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan (9/26/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 26 Sep 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Recent dramatic and surprising gains by Ukraine in its war with Russia have brought political and investment implications. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join this week's episode to discuss updates on how the war has progressed along with its impact on the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in light of Russia's weakened position.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Federal Reserve's Big Policy Mistake (9/19/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 19 Sep 2022 07:26:52 -0500

The Federal Reserve has made no secret of its intent to curb inflation by means of interest rate hikes, even if economic pain is the result. The Fed's hope, of course, is that any slowdown or recession will be mild. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss why present Fed policy is more likely to lead to a deeper recession than the stock market currently anticipates.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Storm Warning (9/6/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 06 Sep 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Recession fears can greatly impact investments, so it makes sense that financial markets are focused today on when, and if, a recession might occur. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady offers his thoughts.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (8/29/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 29 Aug 2022 06:38:56 -0500

Might food be weaponized in a deglobalized world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings, one dominated by the U.S. and the other by China? Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the latest in his series of reports on how deglobalization could impact investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Inflation Surprise (8/22/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 22 Aug 2022 01:00:00 -0500

When the July Consumer Price Index was released earlier this month, the stock market rallied on hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might be less inclined to raise interest rates. Was it a case of over-optimism? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady reviews the numbers that were so well-received by financial markets and the arguments on both sides of the theory that inflation has peaked.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (8/15/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 15 Aug 2022 01:00:00 -0500

We return to a theme familiar to anyone who has been listening to us for a while--the decline of globalization and the implications for investors. The vehicle for our discussion today is a book that appeared for a while this year on the New York Times non-fiction bestseller list, titled "The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization" by Peter Zeihan. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses why this particular book strikes a chord at Confluence Investment Management.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2022 Outlook: Update #2

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 09 Aug 2022 12:09:26 -0500

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, joins host Phil Adler in looking at the second update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the impact of the Ukraine war and the financial markets’ discounting of a potential recession next year.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Devil Is in the Details (8/8/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 01:00:00 -0500

What do current levels of household debt portend for the economy and for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us to discuss the path consumer debt followed to arrive at the level where it is today and where it fits in the investment equation.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Crises for Top U.S. Allies (8/1/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 01 Aug 2022 13:00:00 -0500

The investment world seems more unstable these days as COVID and the Ukraine war are causing major shifts in economies and contributing to political crises for some top U.S. allies. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines the recent political events in Japan, the U.K., and Italy and discusses their common features and implications for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Puzzle of the Labor Force (7/25/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 25 Jul 2022 07:32:22 -0500

For most of us, the current state of the economy is a huge factor in our investment decisions, but correctly parsing the economic data can be challenging. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins today's podcast with a warning: don't be fooled by a low unemployment rate. It may not reflect a healthy labor market.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Pandemic's Impact on Inequality (7/18/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Jul 2022 12:59:45 -0500

If one keeps up with the news, they will hear reports of widening income and wealth inequality in the U.S. According to the Census Bureau, in 2020, the top 20% of the U.S. population earned over half of all U.S. income, and the top 5% earned nearly a quarter of all income. This week's geopolitical report looks at how the pandemic has affected inequality in America. Confluence Market Strategy Intern Natalia Fields discusses how one measures income and wealth inequality and how current trends might influence investment strategy.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The ECB Dilemma (7/11/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Jul 2022 08:12:00 -0500

We've heard a lot about the challenges for the U.S. Federal Reserve as it tries to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and battling inflation. The European Central Bank is also engaged in a challenging balancing act, trying to keep sovereign bond yields among its country members in line with each other as the ECB prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade. Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses this challenge for the ECB and the implications for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Selling of Austerity (6/27/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 27 Jun 2022 08:14:12 -0500

Following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed's goal is to bring about 2% inflation while keeping unemployment down. But, achieving the first goal will almost certainly mean a weakening labor market. How do you sell the necessity of a weakening labor market to the public? The Fed appears to have a strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2022 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (6/21/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 20 Jun 2022 22:49:16 -0500

It's time for the Confluence Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: a look at world events likely to drive markets for the rest of the year and how investments might be aligned to accommodate the dominant trends. Confluence's market strategists identify seven major events and list the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of each.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Homebuilders Versus Apartment Builders (6/13/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 13 Jun 2022 04:10:27 -0500

The homebuilder sector is no longer overweight in the Confluence Asset Allocation strategies for stocks. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains the recent downgrade of the sector and the various forces driving the housing industry as a whole.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mineral Commodities in the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (6/6/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 06 Jun 2022 10:32:01 -0500

In Confluence's geopolitical report from May 9, 2022, we projected a world devolving into two major economic and political blocs: U.S.-led and China-led. In many ways, this process has already begun and the Ukraine war is serving as an accelerant. Countries within the China-led bloc are likely to be poor and more populous but they do include many major commodity producers, which is our focus today. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to look at various resources and identify potentially significant problem areas for the U.S.-led bloc and some action steps for investors.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Problem of Financial Conditions (5/31/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 31 May 2022 01:00:00 -0500

As we read various comments from Federal Reserve officials, it appears the Fed is making no bones about it: the drive to bring down inflation by raising interest rates will result in some financial pain. We can't help but wonder how much financial pain for consumers will the Fed tolerate? And if the pain becomes too bad, will the Fed be able to manage it? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses these questions and the challenge for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Going Nuclear with North Korea (5/23/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 23 May 2022 17:17:36 -0500

Because of the Ukraine war, North Korea may have attracted less geopolitical scrutiny lately but its nuclear ambitions remain strong. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why North Korea continues to deserve the attention of investors. What is Kim Jong-un trying to accomplish with his periodic nuclear saber-rattling?

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The FOMC Speaks (5/16/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 16 May 2022 08:25:00 -0500

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier this month may have been widely expected but the financial markets' reaction up to this point has still been highly volatile. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to talk about the longer-term implications for investors.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Parsing the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (5/9/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 May 2022 16:34:47 -0500

A world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings seems more and more likely as globalization retreats in the face of new trade, immigration, and political barriers, and the Ukraine war appears to be accelerating the process. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses what this new world might look like and what investors should watch for, including findings of a study conducted by Confluence that tries to determine the countries that may end up in each group -- either the group dominated by the U.S. or the one dominated by China.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Tale of Two Surveys (5/2/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 02 May 2022 01:00:00 -0500

It makes sense that as consumers our expectations for the economy influence our current spending decisions; that's why investment strategists pay so much attention to measures of consumer sentiment. Lately, two major readings of sentiment have started to diverge. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash helps us make sense of these results.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Russians Respond (4/25/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 25 Apr 2022 17:45:52 -0500

Financial sanctions levied against Russia because of the Ukraine war included freezing Russia's holdings of dollars in foreign banks. This action may have a long-term impact on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the investment implications of the ripple effects from these sanctions.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Bank of Japan Cocks the Trigger (4/18/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 18 Apr 2022 06:40:52 -0500

While the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be in the early stages of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet with the goal of reining in inflation, something quite different is happening in Japan. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the implications of the Bank of Japan's policy and why U.S. investors should take notice.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bosnian Divide (4/11/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 11 Apr 2022 13:51:26 -0500

While the Ukraine war gets the headlines, the next hotspot for confrontation between the West and Russia may be forming relatively unnoticed, at least by many of us. Confluence's analysts have been closely watching recent events in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why he thinks this country might become Russia's next target.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Latin America's Day in the Sun (4/4/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 04 Apr 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Investors looking for suitable investments in emerging markets might want to consider Latin America. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this episode to discuss the LatAm underperformance over the past decade and the investment prospects going forward given the current boost in commodity prices.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New Era of Higher Defense Budgets (3/28/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 28 Mar 2022 17:06:56 -0500

The announcement by various countries that they'll bulk up defense spending in the wake of the Ukraine war has investment implications as well as geopolitical ones. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss the ramifications.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2022 Outlook: Update #1

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 25 Mar 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady delves into the first update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the hawkish adjustment to monetary policy and four scenarios for the path of policy.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - A Commodity Update (3/21/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 21 Mar 2022 01:00:00 -0500

Today, we discuss commodity prices. How does the recent price surge rate in historical terms, and is this time ominously different for consumers because of the Ukraine war? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives some perspective by comparing the recent surge in prices to what we've experienced in the past.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (3/14/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 01:00:00 -0500

How has the Ukraine war changed the investment environment and are these changes likely to be long-lasting or short-lived? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady tackles these questions.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Believe It or Not, Fiscal Policy Is Tightening (3/7/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 07 Mar 2022 08:44:25 -0600

The attention we pay to inflation these days may lead us to overlook other important economic information that builds the framework for successful investment decisions. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins this week's episode to discuss what we're missing by devoting so much attention to inflation.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Experiment (2/28/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 28 Feb 2022 14:54:49 -0600

Confluence's published geopolitical report this week looks at what appears to be an unusual economic experiment going on in Turkey: President Erdogan is refusing to allow the central bank to raise interest rates to contain rapidly rising inflation, meanwhile the Turkish currency, the lira, has been plummeting in value. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives his analysis of Turkey's unorthodox response to inflation.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (2/22/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 21 Feb 2022 22:31:36 -0600

The shape of the U.S. economy is dominated these days by what appear to be pandemic-related distortions. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how we got to where we are, what can be done about it, and where we might find the most bang right now for our investment dollars.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (2/14/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 14 Feb 2022 16:56:42 -0600

The latest geopolitical report from Confluence addressed some of the key questions regarding Ukraine, including the possible impact on investments. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join today's episode to explore possible long-term ramifications stemming from the crisis (understanding that current events are fast-moving and headlines may have changed since the recording of this episode).

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (2/7/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Sun, 06 Feb 2022 23:20:55 -0600

Recent volatility in financial markets and persistent geopolitical risks create an opportunity for a fresh look at gold prices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses gold prices and whether our short-term outlook has changed.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (1/31/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 31 Jan 2022 13:24:20 -0600

While the West has been focused on the Russian threat to invade Ukraine and expand its sphere of influence there, recent developments in another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, have also appeared to increase Russian influence and have important implications for world energy prices. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today with some analysis on the situation.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (1/24/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 24 Jan 2022 08:20:07 -0600

Will consumers keep consuming enough to sustain economic growth if interest rates rise? The answer might begin to emerge as we explore a separate question in today's discussion with Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady: what exactly drives consumption? Is it a rise in real income or is it an increase in the "wealth effect"?

Confluence of Ideas - The 2022 Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 20 Jan 2022 11:32:37 -0600

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady joins host Phil Adler to explore the highlights from Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on policy expectations and potential risks for this year.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Would a U.S.-China War Look Like? (1/18/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 18 Jan 2022 15:57:55 -0600

We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which have already affected investors. In our "2022 Geopolitical Outlook" published in December, we identified China as the #1 geopolitical issue to impact financial markets and investment policy for the foreseeable future. In the inaugural episode of Confluence's new Geopolitical Podcast series, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the challenges and potential outcomes created by the present confrontational relationship between the U.S. and China.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Path of Monetary Policy (1/10/2022)

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 10 Jan 2022 00:56:56 -0600

When will the Federal Reserve begin a much-anticipated series of rate hikes in order to tame inflation? Many, if not most, market analysts are predicting more than one rate hike and perhaps as many as four in 2022, but Confluence goes against the grain on this issue. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explains why the Fed may delay rate hikes until 2023.

Asset Allocation Weekly - What's Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (12/17/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 00:00:00 -0600

What's causing it and should we be worried? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the flattening bond yield curve and explains how inflation and Fed rate hike expectations have affected it.

Confluence of Ideas - The Regional Threats from the Taliban in Afghanistan

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 14 Dec 2021 00:00:00 -0600

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, and Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, discuss the geopolitical problems that could affect regional stability with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Risks to Iran, India, China, Russia, and the “stans” are discussed, including the potential for a refugee crisis that might spread beyond the region.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Omicron Problem (12/10/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 10 Dec 2021 00:00:00 -0600

The emergence of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron, appears to have changed inflation expectations at the Fed and gave financial markets quite a jolt as well when the news came out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what may be the reasoning behind Chair Powell's change of heart and the possible impact on investors.

Asset Allocation Weekly - An Update on Gold (12/3/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 03 Dec 2021 03:45:23 -0600

As inflation heats up, will gold prices do the same? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives an update on the price of gold.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Composition of the FOMC (11/19/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 19 Nov 2021 00:00:00 -0600

President Biden has some open positions to fill on the Federal Reserve Board, and the process bears close watching as the market anticipates future decisions on interest rates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how the policy tilt of the Fed could change based not only on who is chosen, but also the speed at which positions are filled.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and Bond Yields (11/12/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 12 Nov 2021 00:00:00 -0600

Where are bond yields headed? An index that may be little-known among many investors, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, might provide some valuable clues. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains what this index measures and how it's proving to be a fairly accurate predictor of future bond yields.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Is Monetary Policy Affected by Financial Markets? (11/5/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady is here to discuss the market's influence on the Fed. Can we, with any confidence, look to the performance of financial markets for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates? Isn't the Fed supposed to prioritize inflation and employment as factors in its decision-making rather than rescuing the markets?

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Debt Ceiling and the Platinum Coin (10/29/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 28 Oct 2021 22:36:43 -0500

Raising the federal debt limit has reemerged this fall as a political issue with the potential to impact the financial markets. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the current standoff over the debt limit and the investment implications.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2022 (10/22/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 22 Oct 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Social security recipients will be getting a raise next year: cost of living adjustment (COLA) announced by the federal government is 5.9%. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the social security COLA impacts the economy and how it compares to other years.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Globalization Isn’t What It Used to Be (10/15/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 15 Oct 2021 00:25:45 -0500

The pandemic has shown that globalization is ill-suited to deal with global supply shocks. In this week's episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash elaborates on the supply chain breakdown and explores the impact on inflation and the dilemma it poses for the Federal Reserve.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Has Bitcoin Become a Substitute for Gold? (10/8/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 08 Oct 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Has Bitcoin become a substitute for gold, and is there a fit for Bitcoin within a risk-sensitive investment portfolio? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses these questions by taking a statistical approach.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Prices We Don’t See (10/1/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 01 Oct 2021 00:48:20 -0500

We return to the subject of inflation this week. Staff Economist Thomas Wash looks at a more positive recent inflationary trend, month-over-month inflation numbers, and what these figures can tell us about the strength and staying power of inflation that we don't get from the year-over-year numbers.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Supply Side Worry on Inflation (9/24/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 24 Sep 2021 01:00:00 -0500

"Is it transitory?" This is the question we're hearing everywhere about inflation. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses whether we should worry that the inflation we're experiencing today will last even when the pandemic diminishes.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Don’t Call It a Comeback! (9/17/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 22:04:07 -0500

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor force for clues on how quickly the economy is recovering as it considers its timetable for withdrawing stimulus and eventually raising rates. Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the size of the workforce and how quickly workers are reentering the jobs market now that enhanced unemployment benefits have expired.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Powell and Fed Independence (9/10/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 10 Sep 2021 07:22:13 -0500

It appears likely that Jerome Powell will be nominated by President Biden to serve another term as Fed Chair, but that doesn't mean there isn't significant opposition. The nature of this opposition calls into question the fundamental relationship between the Fed and Congress, which could eventually have a significant impact on investors. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the likelihood of his renomination and how the opposition could affect Fed independence.

Asset Allocation Weekly - This Recovery is Different (8/27/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 27 Aug 2021 10:31:18 -0500

When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? The timing of Fed action will depend on how quickly America emerges from the pandemic-induced recession; how fast jobs recover is one way to measure that. To address this issue, we look at the composition of the FOMC and the history of monetary policy in past recoveries.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Impact of Older Americans on the Labor Market (8/20/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 20 Aug 2021 01:00:00 -0500

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses which effects represent a continuation, or acceleration, of previous trends and which are brand new to the labor market as a result of the pandemic.

Asset Allocation Weekly - Intellectual Property Takes Over Fixed Investment (8/13/2021)

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:18:34 -0500

What are the implications of growing intellectual property investment? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez focuses on the growing importance of intellectual property investment by U.S. corporations and the implications for individual investors.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 8/6/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 06 Aug 2021 01:00:00 -0500

How does unified government affect long-duration bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines the statistical evidence.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/30/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 30 Jul 2021 00:14:08 -0500

Where are bond yields likely headed? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at bond yields, focusing on the 10-year Treasury note.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/23/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 23 Jul 2021 00:28:38 -0500

What are the implications for investors and for the world economy of high corporate debt in China? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses this question.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/16/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 16 Jul 2021 00:12:58 -0500

How stable is the labor market? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the current state of the labor market.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/9/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 09 Jul 2021 01:00:00 -0500

What do the Distributional Financial Accounts data tell us about the economy and financial system? As a follow-up to the Flow of Funds data, Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses how this subsequent release offers a deeper dive into the previous numbers.

Confluence of Ideas - The Geopolitics of Taiwan and the Issue of Globalization

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 07 Jul 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss the geopolitics of Taiwan and the risks to globalization presented by the concentration of the semiconductor industry on the island of Taiwan. Topics include the issue of strategic ambiguity, the potential chokepoint that Taiwan’s semiconductor’s industry represents, and the issue of Taiwan/China unification by diplomacy or force.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 6/25/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 25 Jun 2021 01:00:00 -0500

What does the Flow of Funds data tell us about the economy and financial system? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at this latest report from the Federal Reserve for insights on the economy and investment environment.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 6/18/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 18 Jun 2021 01:00:00 -0500

How are "base effects" affecting today's economic and financial data? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, reviews what we mean when we talk about "base effects" and how the year-over-year comparisons change our perceptions.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 6/11/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 11 Jun 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Should we be concerned with the rise in inflation expectations? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 5/28/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 28 May 2021 01:00:00 -0500

What is behind the recent rally in gold? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, reviews the recent performance of gold prices and reasons for the price action.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 5/21/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 21 May 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Why aren't people returning to the labor force? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the labor shortage we're seeing in workplaces as the threat of the pandemic wanes and the economy opens up.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 5/14/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 14 May 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Is the Canadian housing market a bubble ready to pop? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at the housing market in Canada and whether a price bubble is forming there.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 5/7/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 07 May 2021 01:00:00 -0500

How does the Confluence Asset Allocation Committee forecast? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the process the Confluence asset allocation investment team uses to arrive at its economic forecasts, which are the basis for the firm's asset allocation recommendations.

Confluence of Ideas - The US-China Balance of Power: Part II

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 30 Apr 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez authored a five-part series earlier this year on the balance of power between the US and China (published January 11 - February 22). His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In Part I, Patrick and host Phil Adler examined China’s goals and aspirations and discussed China’s growing military power. Part II covers economic power, “soft” or diplomatic power, and overall relations.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 4/23/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 22 Apr 2021 21:56:32 -0500

Will rising rent and home prices impact CPI? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at how increasing housing costs will impact the Consumer Price Index.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 4/16/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Should we be concerned with rising inflation? This week, Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, continues our recent focus on inflation with a discussion of recent market volatility and whether the markets are overreacting.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 4/9/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 08 Apr 2021 20:52:14 -0500

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on the relationship between aging populations and future inflation.

Confluence of Ideas - The US-China Balance of Power: Part I

Confluence Investment Management — Wed, 07 Apr 2021 12:01:12 -0500

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez recently authored a five-part series on the balance of power between the US and China. His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In this first podcast episode, host Phil Adler examines China’s goals and aspirations, and discusses China’s growing military power. The forthcoming Part II will cover the other key areas.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 3/26/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 25 Mar 2021 23:20:24 -0500

Why is gold weak, and do we still hold a favorable view? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the decline in gold prices over the past few months and the underlying fundamentals.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 3/19/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 19 Mar 2021 01:00:00 -0500

Why are 10-year Treasuries rising? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on the recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, an event which the stock market is watching carefully.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 3/12/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 12 Mar 2021 00:00:00 -0600

What are the investment opportunities in Japanese stocks? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses whether Japan is currently an attractive destination for U.S. investors.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 3/5/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 04 Mar 2021 22:53:04 -0600

Where are we in terms of our 2021 Outlook? The S&P 500 is already close to the forecast zone presented in our 2021 Outlook report. Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the stock market's performance so far this year and how asset prices might behave in the coming months.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 2/26/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 25 Feb 2021 21:35:52 -0600

What is the impact of higher bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the latest inflation data.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 2/19/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 19 Feb 2021 00:00:00 -0600

How bad was the jobs report? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the January jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department, which generated lots of worried comments in the media.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 2/12/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 12 Feb 2021 00:00:00 -0600

Is the Fed facing the Tinbergen problem? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at a challenge shaping up for the Federal Reserve known to economists as the Tinbergen problem--whether encouraging employment by keeping interest rates low might contribute to encouraging risky investment that could lead to a stock market bubble.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 09 Feb 2021 00:00:00 -0600

In mid-December, we published our geopolitical outlook for 2021. In this podcast episode, Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they examine the five areas of concern discussed in the report. These issues are the return of the establishment, the anti-China alliance project, the Middle East, North Korea, and the return of inflation. In addition, we talk about the factors that failed to make the cut for the written report, such as Russia, the pandemic, and climate change.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 2/5/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 05 Feb 2021 00:00:00 -0600

What is the situation in housing? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the housing sector & the current state of housing in the U.S.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 1/29/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 28 Jan 2021 21:17:49 -0600

What is the outlook for inflation? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses inflation expectations and what measures Confluence relies on when considering inflation.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 1/22/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 21 Jan 2021 21:51:08 -0600

What will be Joe Biden's focus in his first term? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, examines what economic statistics suggest might, or should, be the focus of an economic recovery plan as the Biden administration takes office.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 1/15/2021

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 22:03:38 -0600

What is the impact of currency debasement? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the rare policy event of currency debasement.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 12/18/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 00:00:00 -0600

What is the relationship between retail money market levels and equities? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the current level of assets held in retail money market funds and what that might mean for the stock market.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 12/11/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 11 Dec 2020 00:00:00 -0600

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, explores the outlook for gold prices.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 11/20/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 20 Nov 2020 00:00:00 -0600

How far will long-term Treasury rates rise? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at interest rates through the prism of long-term Treasury rates.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 11/13/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 00:00:00 -0600

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the short-term impact of the election on equity markets.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 11/6/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 06 Nov 2020 00:00:00 -0600

Should we be concerned about inflation? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the question.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 10/30/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What are the investment implications of the EU's political dynamics? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on potential opportunities in the foreign equity space in the EU and U.K.

Confluence of Ideas - Foreign Policy Under a Biden or Trump Presidency

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 27 Oct 2020 01:00:00 -0500

With the election looming, there is the potential for changes in foreign policy. Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they address the future of American foreign policy. Bill discusses how a President Biden will conduct foreign policy, while Patrick examines what could be different with a second Trump term. This podcast relates to Weekly Geopolitical Reports published in late August on these topics. For Biden, there is a degree of uncertainty since he would be a new president. And, although it is tempting to assume a Trump presidency would be more of the same, there would likely be some differences as well. One possible change is that in a second term the Treasury might rely more on dollar weakness and less on tariffs to conduct trade policy.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 10/23/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 22 Oct 2020 23:32:58 -0500

How has the pandemic affected consumption patterns? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the unusual nature of the current economic recovery, in particular, consumption patterns, and what this portends for U.S. economic policy and your investments.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 10/16/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Thu, 15 Oct 2020 22:37:53 -0500

What do inventory levels portend for the post-pandemic economy? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on current U.S. business inventory/sales ratio data in an attempt to anticipate future economic activity.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 10/9/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 08:30:24 -0500

Who will be the biggest beneficiaries from the European recovery program? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on who might benefit the most from the current program.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 10/2/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 02 Oct 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What impact could the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg have on markets? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the impact of the death of the Supreme Court justice on financial markets.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 9/25/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 25 Sep 2020 12:37:23 -0500

How have U.S. and non-U.S. stock market sectors performed in different periods of dollar strength? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on how U.S. dollar strength affects U.S. stocks compared with foreign market stocks.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 9/18/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Is the dollar on the cusp of a bear market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the possibility that we may be on the verge of a dollar bear market and what that might mean for foreign equities.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 9/4/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 04 Sep 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What is the impact of household debt service on discretionary income? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at how debt levels are impacting consumers' ability to spend and keep the economy afloat.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 8/28/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 28 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Is the additional unemployment insurance reducing employment? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, explores how the federal government's additional weekly benefit has affected unemployment.

Confluence of Ideas - The Dollar and the Eurobond

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 25 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Although the dollar remains the global reserve currency, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the role. On the domestic front, the dollar’s role has been positive for financial services and retailers, but it has been a persistent negative factor for import-competing industries and their workers. Foreign nations are increasingly uncomfortable with the U.S. weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions. The decision by the EU to create a mutualized bond, a debt instrument backed by the full faith and credit of all the member states of the EU, creates a competing instrument for the U.S. Treasury. If debt mutualization continues to expand, the euro will become an attractive reserve currency to foreign reserve managers.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 8/21/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 21 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

How are money market funds acting? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the level of cash in retail money market funds.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 8/14/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 14 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What is behind the historic strength in gold prices? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the issue of strong gold prices.

Confluence of Ideas - The Q3 2020 Asset Allocation Update

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 11 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Join Greg Ellston, Confluence Investment Management’s CIO of Asset Allocation, for a discussion of this quarter’s outlook and changes to the Asset Allocation portfolios. Greg begins with the macro backdrop, discussing the economy and policy. From there, he shows how this macro information leads to concrete adjustments in portfolios. Even in cases where no changes are made, the analysis that holds a portfolio steady is itself “active.”

Asset Allocation Weekly - 8/7/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 07 Aug 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What is the risk if state and local governments have to cut spending? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses how the coronavirus crisis may affect state and local spending.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/31/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 31 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the pandemic's impact on the labor market, focusing primarily on older workers.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/24/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 24 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Is the Federal Reserve tightening policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question and discusses whether there is evidence to indicate that the Fed is now tightening policy.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2020 Election: Part III

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 21 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and decision markets. We examine the geopolitics of the election, focusing on what countries are likely to intervene in our election, their capabilities and their goals. We also touch on what we expect to see in terms of policy if we get a new president or if the incumbent wins, and likely market reaction in either scenario.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/20/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 20 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Where does the extra liquidity flow? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this key inflation question, especially in light of the Fed's recent policy actions.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2020 Election: Part II

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 14 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the second of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the issue of inequality and the rise of populism, the impact of social media, and the current problems of extreme partisanship and political legitimacy.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 7/10/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 10 Jul 2020 01:00:00 -0500

What is the impact of inequality on monetary policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question, primarily regarding racial inequality, in this week's episode.

Asset Allocation Weekly - 6/26/2020

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 26 Jun 2020 01:00:00 -0500

Will the Fed implement negative interest rates? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines whether this event may occur.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2020 Election: Part I

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 01:00:00 -0500

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series, which concludes this week, examines this issue in more detail. This is the first of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the concept of public goods, who benefits from them and who pays, the concept of the identity/class nexus, the fluidity of political party affiliation, and the risks to fixed investment that come from the inability to build a political consensus.

Confluence of Ideas - The Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 02 Jun 2020 01:00:00 -0500

We continue to build on themes discussed in episode #11, “The Lessons of History,” in which we examined the effects of earlier pandemics. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Deglobalization is a key element of that shift. Although we believe the world has been steadily moving toward equality, this pandemic is moving the process forward. The eventual outcome is higher inflation, although it may take several years for higher price levels to become evident.

Confluence of Ideas - The Lessons of History

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 19 May 2020 01:00:00 -0500

This episode examines the economic, market and social effects of earlier pandemics. Although the Black Death is mentioned, we focus on relatively recent events, including the Spanish influenza. One of our themes has been an impending reversal in the equality/efficiency cycle; in this podcast we discuss the potential that the pandemic could accelerate the shift to an equality phase.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2020 Outlook Update

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 08 May 2020 01:00:00 -0500

This episode discusses the two updates to our 2020 Outlook, in which we have moved from “storm watch” to “storm warning.” In the podcast, we note the three factors that have put the U.S. into recession—the pandemic, rising financial stress and the oil crisis. Our current take is that the recession will be deep, the deepest since the Great Depression, but likely short, given the aggressive policy response.

Confluence of Ideas - Our Asset Allocation Process

Confluence Investment Management — Mon, 09 Mar 2020 02:00:00 -0500

This episode discusses Confluence’s asset allocation process. In earlier episodes, Bill O’Grady examined the importance of process when investors are making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, while Mark Keller talked about the process for managing the firm’s value-oriented equity strategies. In this podcast, Greg Ellston, Confluence’s CIO of Asset Allocation, discusses the investment team’s process for managing the asset allocation strategies.

Confluence of Ideas - 2020 Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 25 Feb 2020 00:00:00 -0600

This episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Geopolitical Outlook. We examine the U.S. 2020 elections, the situation in Iran, China’s debt, the impact of demographics and North Korea. We also provide an update on emerging issues since we published the report in mid-December.

Confluence of Ideas - Storm Watch

Confluence Investment Management — Tue, 04 Feb 2020 00:00:00 -0600

This seventh episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Outlook, which is titled “Storm Watch.” We explain the key points of our outlook, including three factors where our forecast could go awry, and also provide an update on developments since the report was published in December.

Confluence of Ideas - Process is King

Confluence Investment Management — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 00:00:00 -0600

This episode takes our discussion of process from the previous episode and shows how it works at Confluence. Financial decisions exist in a milieu of uncertainty, and thus a sound process is critical to successful equity selection. In this episode, Mark Keller, CEO and CIO of Confluence, details the firm’s process for selecting equities.

Confluence of Ideas - Arriving at Decisions

Bill O'Grady — Thu, 19 Dec 2019 00:00:00 -0600

This episode examines the issue of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. There are some situations of pure luck, like lotteries. There are others, like chess, which are pure skill. For most everything else in between, including investing, there is a mix of skill and luck in success. Under such conditions, investors are faced with the following problem: is an investment manager’s success due to skill or luck? In this podcast, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what an investor should focus on when trying to select an investment manager. A hint…it’s all about process.

Confluence of Ideas - Equality & Efficiency

Bill O'Grady — Fri, 06 Dec 2019 00:00:00 -0600

In this episode, we explain the equality/efficiency cycle, which is based on the seminal work of the economist Arthur Okun and the cycle work of Peter Turchin. The cycle explains how societies shift from focusing on equality, which usually includes policies favoring regulation, autarky, and high marginal taxes, to efficiency, where policies of deregulation, globalization, and low marginal tax rates dominate. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses where the U.S. is in this cycle and the impact on American hegemony.

Confluence of Ideas - Hegemonic Stability Theory: Part III

Bill O'Grady — Thu, 14 Nov 2019 00:00:00 -0600

This third episode of the series concludes the overview of Hegemonic Stability Theory and U.S. hegemony with an examination of the financial elements of hegemony. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the evolution of the reserve currency role and the costs and benefits of financial hegemony.

Confluence of Ideas - Hegemonic Stability Theory: Part II

Bill O’Grady — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 01:00:00 -0500

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady continues the discussion on Hegemonic Stability Theory and the unique aspects of American Hegemony.

Confluence of Ideas - Hegemonic Stability Theory: Part I

Bill O’Grady — Wed, 16 Oct 2019 10:00:00 -0500

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady discusses the origins, the roles, and the world affairs of Hegemonic Stability Theory.

Q1 2016 Asset Allocation Rebalancing Recap

Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke — Fri, 22 Jan 2016 11:40:00 -0600

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss the Q1 2016 Asset Allocation rebalancing.

Geopolitical Outlook 2016 Part 2

Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke — Wed, 30 Dec 2015 11:40:00 -0600

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss two of the five topics for our 2016 outlook. (Part 2)

Geopolitical Outlook 2016

Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke — Thu, 24 Dec 2015 10:00:00 -0600

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss two of the five topics for our 2016 outlook.

The State of the Economy

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke — Mon, 08 Jun 2015 14:00:00 -0500

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke host Confluence's inaugural podcast. They discuss the state of the economy and whether there will be a return to trend or a continuation of slow growth.

Inside Baseball at the Fed

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke — Mon, 08 Jun 2015 14:00:00 -0500

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke look at the divergence of opinions among the doves on the FOMC.