The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but it also increased its forecast for 2026 GDP, from 1.9% to 2.1%, hardly a rate that would necessitate a long string of further cuts. Multiple forces are pulling the economy in different directions, so the 10-year treasury yield will likely continue to move in the same wide band it’s been in since 2023. Recent local elections have tilted strongly in favour of Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. It is possible next year’s mid-term elections go strongly in the Democrats’ favour, and the administration has less power than it does now. With economically-sensitive stock market indices like mid and small caps, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index all breaking to new highs, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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Chinese equities are entering 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year’s broad-based rally in materials.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

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As 2025 draws to a close, investors are reflecting on a year that tested their emotional discipline – from Liberation Day tariffs to geopolitical events that sent markets into turmoil. What separated those who thrived from those who struggled? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Helen Freer sits down with Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory at Julius Baer, to discuss what worked well and what worked less well this year, why resisting the urge to react emotionally was crucial, and what lies ahead for 2026. They explore the ongoing AI story and how to diversify exposure along the value chain, the case for reducing USD concentration, and why currencies like the Australian dollar and structured products deserve a closer look as investors position for the year ahead.

• (00:11) - Introduction
• (01:22) - The role of Client Coverage and Advisory
• (02:06) - What worked well in 2025
• (03:57) - What didn't go according to plan
• (05:11) - Why 2025 was so tough to navigate
• (06:55) - Can the AI story continue in 2026?
• (09:25) - Reducing USD exposure without sacrificing yield
• (11:48) - Three levels of diversification
• (13:25) - How to deploy fresh capital now
• (15:18) - Closing remarks

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ADP’s tally of 120,000 small firm job losses in November, and a decline in September Core PCE inflation, both help the case for a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this Wednesday. On the markets front, Wall Street strategists are forecasting an average of 9% return for the S&P 500 index next year. Two technical indicators suggest an even larger return is probable.
Meanwhile, it’s almost impossible to keep up with all that’s going on in the world of Artificial Intelligence, but what’s clear is the stock market favours AI adopters. Interestingly, the share prices of companies citing AI on Q3 conference calls have returned 14% on average year-to-date, vs. an average return of 6% for those that didn’t cite it.

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Signs of a slowing economy, and speculation of a very dovish new Federal Reserve chairman in May 2026, are behind the futures market pricing in substantial rate cuts over the next year. Historically, substantially lower rates weaken the dollar and boost precious metals. Silver has made a new high and has formed what is arguably the most bullish technical pattern, William O’Neil’s “cup and handle” formation.

On the technology front, Alphabet's low-cost semiconductors present unexpected competition for Nvidia. Things like that will determine the performance of technology companies’ share prices for the foreseeable future. Longer term, the “Holy Grail” that technology companies seek is Artificial General Intelligence - AI that thinks like a human. Its impact to humanity could be very beneficial, or deeply detrimental.

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Japan is undergoing a profound economic transformation under its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, whose growth-focused "Sanaenomics" policy drives investment in critical areas such as infrastructure, tech and energy. After decades of deflation, inflation has reached 2.9%, supported by a robust 5% wage growth, boosting consumption and corporate earnings.

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann speaks with Louis Chua, Asia equity research analyst at Julius Baer, about the investment landscape for Japan, against a backdrop of structural corporate reforms, strengthening earnings, and rising shareholder returns, and explores the opportunities and risks to watch ahead.

• (01:25) - What can we expect from Sanae Takaichi’s agenda?
• (02:54) - Japan’s shifting economic landscape
• (04:09) - Green shoots in Japan corporate reform
• (05:50) - Growing influence of activist investors
• (07:19) - Takeaways from Q3 earnings
• (09:08) - Diverging paths between small and large caps
• (10:46) - How does the weakening Yen impact Japanese businesses?
• (12:00) - Risks to watch
• (14:02) - Rising Japanese bond yields – a cause for concern?
• (15:36) - Are Japanese bonds finally attractive for international investors?

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Just weeks after hawkish Federal Reserve commentary dimmed December rate cut hopes, new dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams have boosted rate cut odds back to 63%. With policymakers seemingly divided, a tied vote on the December 10 FOMC meeting – unprecedented in its history – remains possible.
Markets remain uneasy in the meantime, with concerns on high AI spending and a Bitcoin bear market weighing on sentiment. Technical signals add to the unease with the S&P 500 and tech sector indices showing signs of a “head and shoulders” pattern, a bearish sign. Additionally, a leaked draft of President Trump’s Ukraine peace plan indicates the unfreezing of some Russian financial assets confiscated by the west, potentially implicating gold demand.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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As markets evolve and the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces new challenges, are hedge funds becoming the next core allocation for resilient investing? In this episode of Beyond Markets, William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists at Julius Baer for Asia and the Middle East, speaks with Joe Dowling, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Blackstone Multi-Asset Investing (BXMA), about how the endowment model is reshaping portfolio construction.

Joe shares insights on why institutions have leaned heavily into alternatives, how multi-strategy hedge funds are delivering uncorrelated returns, and what private investors can learn from the playbook of elite endowments. From risk management to the “democratisation of alternatives”, this episode explores how hedge funds may just be part of the new 60/40 for long-term investors seeking durability and diversification.

This episode was recorded on 28 October 2025.

• (00:10) - – The endowment model
• (03:53) - – Is it limited to institutional investors?
• (05:31) - – A typical allocation split
• (06:57) - – The importance of a long-term approach
• (07:45) - – Recent criticisms of the endowment model
• (09:32) - – Hedge funds: a bond substitute?
• (11:52) - – The rise of multi-strategy funds
• (13:53) - – How multi-strategy funds have performed throughout volatility
• (15:42) - – What to look for in a good multi-strategy fund
• (17:02) - – Absolute return vs index investing
• (19:02) - – Are multi-strategy funds getting too big?
• (20:46) - – Are single-manager, single-strategy funds still relevant?
• (22:01) - – Rebalancing – a critical element
• (23:13) - – Fund manager expertise, and the art of portfolio construction
• (27:30) - – Thoughts on private equity and infrastructure
• (32:02) - – An ivy league education? Or an alternatives portfolio?

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Following hawkish commentary from six Federal Reserve presidents and promising indicators of October labour and consumer data, the market no longer expects a December rate cut. Meanwhile, recent technology stock performance suggests the market increasingly distinguishes between sustainable and speculative growth, and leverage. Over in Asia, China's stock market is supported by the country’s leadership in electrification, more exports of high-technology products and services, a slowly appreciating Renminbi, and governmental efforts to promote equity investment and corporate governance reforms. 

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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Gold has been on a wild ride lately — surging past USD 4,000 an ounce before tumbling in one of its biggest corrections in years. What’s really driving this volatility, and how are the narratives around gold evolving?

Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, discuss the changing forces behind gold’s rally — from questions over the Fed’s independence and fears of dollar debasement to the role of central bank buying and China’s strategic accumulation. The conversation also touches on the outlook and trends for silver and the broader precious metals market.

This episode was recorded on Nov 10, 2025.

• (00:22) - Narratives driving the gold market
• (02:54) - Dollar resilience or temporary pause?
• (04:24) - Mixed signals from the Fed
• (06:04) - Do geopolitics really matter for gold?
• (07:18) - Central bank buying and structural trends
• (10:24) - China’s gold strategy
• (13:24) - ETF flows: Conviction or speculation?
• (15:54) - Chinese regulatory changes, and impact on precious metals landscape
• (17:56) - Section 232 and silver
• (21:14) - Is the mythical $50 level in silver still in play?
• (21:54) - Outlook and key takeaways

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The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment survey, and October private sector job cuts tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, have raised concerns the US economy may be entering a recession. But data from ADP, state-level initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed’s unemployment estimate, all paint a picture of a healthy economy. A closer look at the Challenger data, however, suggests the reason for job cuts is Artificial Intelligence. While AI might be able to displace humans in technology companies, it is unlikely to replace workers in many other sectors anytime soon. Still, it is clear labour is a primary worry in the market.

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The recent conclusion of China’s Fourth Plenum has shed light on the strategic direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting key priorities such as boosting domestic consumption, advancing technological self-reliance, and expanding into new export markets. Following the Plenum, Chinese President Xi also met with US President Trump in South Korea, reaching a mutual agreement to pause key trade escalations for a year.

What do these developments mean for the future of US-China relations, and can Chinese markets continue its bull run in 2026?

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

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Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins. 
However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks. 
Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP. 
Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.

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October was a busy month for those involved in FX transactions and the vagaries of the precious metals markets. With the US Federal Reserve having started to lower rates and continuing expectations of a weakening dollar, how are investors positioning themselves as they head towards year end? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Sales at Julius Baer Geneva to discuss the challenges involved in reducing dollar exposure, what alternatives look interesting and of course, the explosive performance of gold in 2025 and how volatility is providing investors with interesting opportunities.

• (00:11) - Introduction
• (01:51) - Adjusting to further dollar weakness
• (03:00) - Is anyone actually selling the dollar?
• (03:56) - USD alternatives being investigated
• (04:59) - Emerging market currencies
• (06:25) - The situation in silver and gold
• (08:07) - What’s the key takeaway?
• (08:49) - Closing remarks

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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87% of the S&P 500 index companies that have reported their Q3 earnings thus far have beaten consensus forecasts - significantly higher than the 10-year average beat rate of 75%. Earnings growth is running at 9.2% year/year, vs. 7.9% that analysts had estimated prior to the start of the reporting season. The NASDAQ 100 index is also on track to post 7 consecutive months of gains. In each of the four times this had happened before, returns in the 12 months that followed were double-digit, averaging 17.5%.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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Recent bankruptcies of companies that accessed the private debt market are a reminder that manager selection is of the utmost importance. The real acid test for the private debt market will be the next recession, although there are no signs of one on the horizon. Still, the labour market is changing, and we look for a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on October 29, followed by another three by March. Alibaba claims to have invented a computing pooling solution that reduces the number of Nvidia GPUs needed to serve its AI models by 82%. An index of Hong Kong residential property infers prices are up 6% this month.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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For the first time in five years, emerging market equities are outperforming their developed market peers. But what’s driving this rally? Interestingly enough, this boom is driven by a rather small number of stocks, mainly located in North Asia.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Equity Strategist and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst, discuss with Ayako Lehmann why emerging market equities are having this strong run, to what extent developed markets are highly dependent on AI components coming from Asia and whether the usual commodities and macro factors that used to be the key drivers of EM equities have lost their importance or not and what this all means when it comes to diversifying a global portfolio.

• (00:11) - Introduction
• (01:23) - What drove past emerging markets equity rallies?
• (02:17) - What exactly has changed now?
• (03:31) - Is Asia matching the U.S. AI boom?
• (06:05) - Will Asia soon lead AI markets?
• (08:45) - Where is the U.S. & China story going?
• (11:36) - Will the shift in EM from commodities to tech remain?
• (16:41) - Is portfolio diversification with EM still relevant?
• (22:09) - Do we remain constructive on AI globally?
• (25:09) - Closing remarks

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As the third-quarter equity earnings season begins, we anticipate broadly supportive results, with a strong focus on the ongoing AI investment cycle and commentary from the hyperscalers. While revenue generation will be a key theme heading into 2026, significant execution risks remain despite the expansive opportunity set.

Amid growing policy uncertainties in the United States, investors may find merit in diversifying portions of their equity exposure away from the US toward other markets, such as China, Switzerland, India, and Japan, where policy settings appear more favourable.

In fixed income, listed corporate credit continues to look attractive, supported by tightening spreads and limited new supply.

This episode is presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia and Middle East at Julius Baer.

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Golden Week has just wrapped, offering a timely snapshot of China’s consumer sentiment. Travel volumes surged, but spending data remained subdued, highlighting the limits of short-term stimulus and reinforcing calls for deeper structural reform.
Amidst this backdrop, China’s stock market continues to rally, prompting fresh questions: Can momentum broaden beyond tech? Will long-awaited social reforms finally shift the consumption narrative? And what does a weakening US dollar mean for global asset allocation?
Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., return to unpack the macro forces behind the rally, the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and why gold and silver are stealing the spotlight in 2025.
This episode was recorded on 8 October 2025.

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Despite uncertainty around the US government shutdown and signs of economic weakness, equities have rallied, though tech stocks paused as AI enthusiasm met valuation concerns. With non-farm payroll data delayed, investors are turning to private sector indicators for labour market insights. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s surprise win as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader signals a potential return to expansionary “Sanaenomics”, a policy stance reminiscent of Abenomics, boosting equities and pressuring the yen. Tune in for a deep dive into the macro shifts shaping markets this week.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia, Julius Baer.

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Structured products can provide investors with capital protection, enhanced yield, or targeted exposure to specific market scenarios. While they may appear complex to those less familiar with them, this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast aims to demystify these instruments. Helen Freer is joined by two Julius Baer experts, Conrad Bruggisser and Raffaele Perroncello, to explain how structured products work and how they can add value to a portfolio. They also discuss the key risks to consider, why market volatility is relevant and how the products can be tailored to suit different investor profiles.

• (00:12) - Introduction
• (01:17) - A simple explanation of what structured products are
• (02:45) - How structured products can add value to a portfolio
• (04:32) - Which structured products might be appropriate in the current environment?
• (06:40) - What volatility means for structured products
• (07:57) - How the underlyings are selected
• (09:34) - How structured products can be tailored to different investor profiles
• (10:46) - How investments are monitored and managed once they are in a portfolio
• (11:44) - The common misconceptions about structured products
• (13:05) - Some of the main risks to be aware of
• (14:09) - Factors to consider when investing in a structured product for the first time
• (15:41) - Summary and closing remarks

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The US equity market defied expectations of September seasonal weakness, with the S&P 500 index gaining 4% this month. With the exception of India, many global markets have also seen gains, with US, Hong Kong and Japan up 30% in USD terms since April , Europe up 20%, Korea and Taiwan up 50%.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, considers if we should ride this momentum in the Chinese equity markets. He examines investor flows and positioning, asset re-allocation trends from domestic retail investors, and recent market pullbacks in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors. He also looks ahead at key fourth quarter events and catalysts to watch – such as the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, and the Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party.

Richard also highlights Julius Baer’s latest views on Singapore equities, which we have recently upgraded to Overweight. Please also check out our recent episode on the Singapore dollar and equities at the following links:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/singapore-dollar-small-but-mighty/id1552236298?i=1000728312662

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Io10QxFwEkbNQzJNDUpbM?si=rwR9CLdoQISPC79v8SKAGQ

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When one thinks of safe haven currencies, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar typically come to mind. But with capital flows diversifying away from the US dollar, interest in alternative safe havens is increasing. The Singapore dollar, one of Asia’s most stable and best-performing currencies, stands out as one such potential candidate. In this episode, we explore the unique characteristics of the Singapore dollar, its central role in Singapore’s monetary policy, and how investors can position themselves to benefit from the Singapore dollar’s strength.

This episode is presented by Yaw Shin Wong, Equity Specialist and Jen-Ai Chua, Equity Research Analyst at Julius Baer.

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The US Federal Reserve resumed its rate cut cycle last week with a widely expected 25bp rate cut. Julius Baer expects four further rate cuts through March 2026, pausing at 3.25%, while the markets are pricing in slightly more aggressive easing. Against a backdrop of rapidly falling short-term rates and rising re-investment risk, 5-7 year bonds emerge as the sweet spot – offering a balance of yield and volatility amid a steepening curve.

In credit markets, the tight spreads between corporates and Treasuries aren’t just a sign of strong corporate demand, but also reflect weakening Treasury appeal. When benchmarked against swaps, the implied corporate credit spreads appear more normal, supporting continued inflows into investment-grade corporate bonds.

In equities, the rally in lower-quality and non-profitable tech stocks suggests that the market has been expecting and pricing in looser monetary policy conditions. However, a reversal may be due, and it may be time for quality stocks to outperform again. Notably, despite strong gains, valuations of the Magnificent 7 stocks remain below prior bubble peaks.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

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The 10-year treasury yield is breaking down as it anticipates rate cuts. This is mostly due to a tightening job market, especially for entry-level candidates and young people. We look for a series of rate cuts, starting this week and ending next March. An interesting statistic to note: in the 20 other times since 1980 when the Fed cut at, or near an all-time high in the S&P 500 index, the index was up a year later in every case.

Meanwhile, global fund manager interest in China is high, but it’s been so long they’ve looked at that market, that they need time to do their homework before investing. Additionally, a weighted average basket of emerging market currencies recently broke a 14-year downward resistance channel.

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As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer’s Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.

• (00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers
• (01:41) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day
• (02:39) - Asia’s macroeconomic picture
• (05:34) - Year-end headline research calls
• (06:08) - Developed-market equity preferences
• (06:38) - Breaking away from the ‘US only’ mindset
• (07:11) - Emerging market equity sweet spots
• (08:55) - Where to find value in fixed income
• (09:39) - Commodities outlook
• (11:35) - US dollar set to weaken?
• (12:15) - Dealing with tariff news
• (13:14) - Summary and closing remarks

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In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more. 

Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer.

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The Nikkei 225 recently reached an all-time high of 43,876, driven by better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, ongoing corporate reforms, and a weaker yen. On September 7, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, triggering a leadership race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While political uncertainty may weigh on sentiment in the near term, structural tailwinds continue to support Japan’s long-term investment outlook.

This episode is presented by Louis Chua, equities research analyst at Julius Baer.

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The rapid pace of China's stock market rally in August has sparked concerns of a market bubble forming, with local regulators mulling measures to curb stock speculation. Are these concerns warranted, and is the end of the rally near?

The Renminbi, in the meantime, continues to strengthen against the weakening US dollar, and gold has broken out again, making new all-time highs.

Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., share their perspectives in this month's edition of China Conversations.

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This week’s episode explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting corporate profitability while reshaping the labour market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, S&P 500 revenue per worker has climbed 15% after years of stagnation, but entry-level jobs are increasingly under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s focus has now shifted from inflation towards employment. Our economist expects five rate cuts by March 2026, though policy uncertainty and eroded trust keep our 10-year US Treasury yield forecast steady at 4.25%. History offers many examples of presidential overreach, episodes that typically prove temporary. With the Trump administration set to continue for another three and a half years, however, investors may feel compelled to exercise caution and consider diversifying beyond the US and the traditional financial system, including assets such as gold.

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly signalled at Jackson Hole that a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting is likely. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer talks to Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, about what a resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle would mean for bond markets. They also discuss the current fiscal concerns and the expected impact of tariffs on inflation, both in and outside of the US.

• (00:32) - Introduction
• (01:19) - What would the resumption of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed mean for bond markets?
• (02:56) - What impact will the fiscal concerns have?
• (04:06) - What duration is currently appropriate in a bond portfolio?
• (05:01) - What impact might tariffs have on fixed income markets?
• (07:34) - Is the Fed’s independence really in danger?
• (09:15) - Should investors consider corporate credit exposure?
• (10:06) - Would exposure to European corporate bonds also be appropriate?
• (11:40) - Summary and closing remarks

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Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest potential interest rate cuts, beginning in September. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has returned 30% since its April low, and the Dow Jones Industrials Average made a new high for the first time this year. The Shanghai Composite index has conclusively broken multi-year resistance. On the surface it’s driven by sentiment only, but China’s 10-year government bond yield bottomed in January and has been building a base since then. Government bond yields are often lead indicators. Additionally, a survey also shows a shift in consumer opinions, from very pessimistic to less pessimistic. In other developments, Singapore has replaced Thailand as Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

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Investing in private markets has the potential to create long-term value in portfolios. But how can qualified and professional investors navigate the current marketplace? What does the private equity market look like today? Which factors are driving potential opportunities? And where might the risks lie?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists at Julius Baer talks to Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at the global alternatives firm TPG, to discuss these questions as they evaluate the current landscape and reflect on the potential risks and rewards.

• (00:30) - Introduction
• (01:51) - Private equity market landscape
• (03:07) - Focus on sector frameworks
• (04:36) - The impact of tariffs
• (05:56) - Likely level of deal activity in H2 2025
• (08:15) - Fund liquidity and distributions to limited partners
• (09:44) - What private equity can bring to a portfolio
• (11:50) - The risks investors in private equity should be aware of
• (13:51) - Innovations: Evergreen structures
• (15:58) - The question of liquidity
• (17:24) - Summary and conclusion

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Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes”. Altman compared the widespread interest over Artificial Intelligence today, to the “tech bubble” of the late 1990s. But, the Magnificent 7 companies’ valuations today are less than half what the top five technology companies were, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

With over 90% of S&P 500 index companies having already reported their Q2 results, earnings growth is settling in at 12.0%, and the consensus forecast of 4.8% for Q3 is starting to look too low. Higher-than-expected July producer prices and nominal retail sales may both be signalling that the full impact of tariffs is yet to come. We expect producers to pass on the increased cost to consumers in the months ahead.

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In this episode of Beyond Markets, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, speaks with General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General, about leadership lessons from his distinguished military career and how they translate to the corporate world. Their conversation explores recent conflicts, including the India–Pakistan skirmish, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Russia–Ukraine war, highlighting the critical role of deterrence. They also examine the future of US energy policy amid shifting dynamics in the Middle East and global oil markets, consider China’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere and its implications, and explore regions with strong potential for development.

• (00:52) - Lessons from the General Petraeus’ military career
• (03:53) - Parallels with the corporate world
• (06:21) - Takeaways from the India-Pakistan and Russia-Ukraine conflicts
• (12:07) - Energy independence, and the future of US policy in the Middle East
• (20:16) - The effectiveness of US sanctions
• (25:59) - China’s growing influence in the Western hemisphere
• (29:30) - Growing interest in the Arctic
• (31:14) - Singapore and Dubai’s success story
• (34:29) - Countries with great potential and opportunities

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The S&P 500 index made new highs last week, and results​ from the Q2 US earnings season have been amazing. With 90% of companies having reported, the blended earnings growth (actuals for reported and estimates for companies yet to report) is 11.8%, versus the consensus of 4.9% y/y earnings growth estimated in June. Yet strangely, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day averages has fallen from 80% in early July to 56%. That means a smaller number of stocks are taking the index up today than was the case then. 

​We should never take averages​ as guaranteed outcomes for future performance. But for what it’s worth, August has historically been a “neutral” month on average, with a return since 1950 of zero. And September is the only month since 1950 with a negative average return.

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Despite a lacklustre Chinese economy, the Hong Kong stock market has remained very popular, with the Hang Seng Index up 24% year-to-date. Concurrently, the Chinese Mainland A-share market has significantly underperformed the Hong Kong H-share market. What are the reasons behind these disparities in the Chinese stock markets? Does the Hong Kong market have further to run, and what are the sectors that are driving the market?

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

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The US imposed an unexpected 39% tariff on Switzerland, sparking market concern. Although there are some caveats to the tariff terms, this development will have a material impact on the Swiss economy. However, there are still a few days to the tariff’s effective date of August 7th, so a deal is still possible. Meanwhile in the US, last Friday’s poor non-farm payroll numbers sent rate cut expectations for September up to 90%, and caused a 2% pullback in the US market. The Chinese market also suffered a week of correction. Despite these macroeconomic challenges, we remain constructive on China.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

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So far this month, the S&P 500 index has returned more than twice its long-term average return for July. Notably, the S&P 500 Equal Weight index, which gives equal importance to small and large companies alike, reached two all-time highs last week from none for this year. The index’s two largest sectors are industrials and financials, sectors that follow the ups and downs of the overall economy. When many stocks are participating in an uptrend, it usually means the uptrend is stronger.

Meanwhile, the recent US-EU trade deal, which includes a 15% tariff on European goods, should put pressure on Mexico and Canada to get deals done by the Friday deadline. However, negotiations may not be as straightforward: Canadian Prime Minister Carney said last week that Canada "will not accept a bad deal", and Trump said, “We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation."

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This week’s episode covers the S&P 500’s new record highs as US fiscal policy proves stimulative, despite ongoing tariff headlines and persistent inflation concerns. We examine the fresh trade deal with Indonesia, rising political uncertainty in Japan, and what August’s looming tariff deadline could mean for global trade. Q2 earnings season is underway, with strong results from US banks and tech stocks. We explore what these developments could mean for portfolio positioning amid shifting market dynamics.

This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

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This week's episode explores how markets are moving beyond tariff fatigue, with attention shifting to the surge in copper prices and renewed interest in European assets. We also touch on the latest US tariff announcements and their implications for trade partners. 

Meanwhile, diverging views within the Federal Reserve and strong technicals continue to shape sentiment in Asian credit. We discuss what these developments could mean for portfolio positioning.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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President Trump’s 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs was meant to come to an end on 8 July, but this has now been extended to 1 August. So, what is the latest with regard to the tariff dispute and how does it impact inflation, recession risk and interest rate policy in the US? And what is the impact on both financial markets and other economies?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Julius Baer’s Chief Economist, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his current thinking and why the impact of tariffs has still not fed through to the key data that the US Federal Reserve is monitoring when it comes to making monetary policy decisions. They discuss the implications of the tariff dispute on financial markets as well as looking at its potential impact on the trajectory of the US dollar. They also examine the impact on other regions and reflect on what this means for investors going forwards.

• (00:31) - Introduction
• (01:27) - The impact of trade disputes & tariffs
• (05:16) - Tariffs’ July 9th rollover impact
• (07:04) - Likelihood of US recession?
• (08:33) - Impact on US monetary policy
• (12:13) - Will Trump be satisfied with 3.5% Fed Funds rate?
• (13:07) - Impact of a ‘shadow’ Fed chair
• (14:47) - Where the US dollar goes from here
• (18:43) - A look at Europe
• (22:00) - The China situation
• (25:22) - Summary

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Historical trends suggest that S&P 500 index tends to rebound strongly after periods of sell-off and recovery, with the index always higher a year later. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said countries that haven’t signed trade deals by August 1 will face the tariffs detailed on April 2. The market, however, is unfazed, and seems to think intimidation followed by negotiation is the modus operandi of this administration. In other news, Thailand is the worst-performing emerging market stock market in the world this year, down 20% The country has had 17 prime ministers in the past 20 years, and the politics could be eventful in the months ahead.

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With President Trump set to announce Jerome Powell’s replacement as Fed Chair “very soon”, policy is likely to turn more dovish. The Trump administration also received a boost with a Supreme Court ruling that federal district courts can no longer issue nationwide injunctions. Meanwhile, a trade deal with China has been signed.

In the treasury market, two key developments signal more demand ahead. Firstly, changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio could free up $5.5 trillion for low-risk assets, mainly treasuries. Additionally, the passing of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate introduces stablecoin regulations that could increase mainstream usage, which could in turn drive demand for treasuries. With these changes in pace, the worries about central banks selling treasuries seem less pressing – after all, as the old saying goes, “If you owe money to yourself, it’s not really a problem.”

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Recent headlines about price wars and intense competition in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market have sparked investor concerns about the industry’s future, with many worrying about a race to the bottom. But what’s really going on behind the scenes?

In this episode, Louis Chua, investment analyst at Julius Baer, examines the key dynamics, opportunities, and challenges in the Chinese EV sector, and what they mean for the market’s long-term growth prospects.

• (00:00) - Chapter 1
• (00:29) - Chapter 2
• (00:29) - Chapter 3
• (00:29) - Chapter 4
• (00:29) - Chapter 5
• (00:29) - Chapter 6
• (01:29) - : The “price war” – a race to the bottom?
• (04:14) - : Chinese automakers making waves internationally
• (05:14) - : Is the Chinese domestic EV market slowing?
• (06:29) - : Innovation in Chinese EVs
• (08:22) - : The “zero-mileage used cars” problem
• (10:24) - : Supplier payment reforms
• (10:59) - : Key risks and catalysts to watch

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US President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, which prioritised limiting military involvement overseas and avoiding “endless wars,” now appears to have given way to a revival of neo-conservatism, an ideology that holds the US should actively use its power to intervene abroad. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed could cut rates as early as July, because of downside risk to the labour market. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers are the most underweight US dollar they have been in the last 20 years. More than half thought international stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next few years.

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With tensions escalating in the Middle East, markets are on edge. Are we seeing a fundamental supply shock in oil —or just a sentiment-driven spike? What are the ripple effects on oil trade routes and prices? And will gold continue to benefit as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk and central bank demand?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong, speaks with Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, to unpack the implications for commodities—and what long-term investors should keep in mind.

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The global economy is navigating a complex landscape of rising oil prices and increasing inflationary pressures. Following last week's conflict between Israel and Iran, oil prices have surged over 12%, and concerns are growing about the potential impact on economic growth and stability. Yet, despite these challenges, certain economies - such as India's - are demonstrating resilience and attracting investor attention due to their strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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The first half of the year has provided investors with ample food for thought, but what’s next and how should investors be positioned for the second half of the year? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, discuss with Helen Freer the impact of the US administration on the global economy, the importance of adopting a global investment approach, and the current opportunities, particularly in the equities and fixed income space.

• (00:33) - Introduction
• (01:22) - US policies and what it means for the global economy
• (04:02) - Risk of a recession
• (05:32) - Expectations for the US Federal Reserve
• (07:00) - Investing in equities - diversify
• (08:13) - Why focus on mid-caps?
• (10:30) - Opportunities in India and China
• (11:57) - Why do we like Japan?
• (13:01) - The importance of stock-picking in the current environment
• (15:09) - Should gold form part of an investor’s allocation?
• (16:16) - Where does the US dollar go from here?
• (17:33) - Is the Swiss franc the ultimate safe-haven currency?
• (18:13) - What does the global trade policy uncertainty mean for credit spreads?
• (19:24) - Opportunities in the fixed income space
• (20:13) - What do we prefer in terms of duration?
• (20:58) - Opportunities in Euro bonds
• (21:21) - What’s in store for emerging market debt?
• (22:03) - Next Generation: a barbell strategy with Extended Longevity and Future of Finance
• (24:10) - Next Generation: Future Cities
• (24:44) - Summary
• (25:58) - Conclusion

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Despite the latest US job data showing resilience, underlying cracks are emerging—highlighted by downward revisions to job growth figures. The stronger-than-expected headline number adds conflicting pressure on the Federal Reserve, complicating the outlook for rate cuts. 
At the same time, rising yields in Japan and growing concerns over the US fiscal trajectory are prompting investors to seek diversification. With emerging markets and Asian bonds showing strength, the case for quality bonds with moderate duration continues to grow.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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The shift in the way the US trades with the world is fundamentally leading to higher inflationary pressures, and in turn causing a weakening US dollar. This has significant implications for investors, and is a risk to the concept of US exceptionalism. In such an environment, we see value in diversifying away from the US in sectors that can be easily replaced. The US, however, remains a leader in the technology sector.

In the fixed income space, elevated rates are likely here to stay, which means going for long duration is possibly not ideal. This episode, presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, explores these themes and provides insights for investors navigating this complex landscape.

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The potential for increased policy support, and ongoing improvements in corporate governance, are factors that support a constructive outlook for Chinese equities. Additionally, the ongoing shift in global investor portfolios away from the US adds further momentum to this outlook. In this episode, our experts explore the investment themes that offer significant opportunities. They also discuss the possible policy directions that China can take in the short and longer terms, the state of the Chinese property market, and if markets are being complacent given the overhang of tariff risks.

Kevin You, Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors, joins Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer in this coversation.

• (00:45) - Constructive on China equities
• (06:19) - Back to pre-Liberation Day levels – are markets being complacent?
• (10:20) - Potential policy direction
• (13:53) - State of the Chinese property market
• (16:49) - Reforms to the pre-sale home model?
• (18:27) - Thoughts on allocations in Chinese equities
• (19:47) - Investing in the AI theme in China
• (21:03) - Self-sufficiency in Chinese technology and semiconductors
• (23:08) - Robotics sector – where’s the potential?

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A large shadow was cast over the Q1 2025 earnings season by President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff bombshells and his administration’s subsequent trade discussions. Investors and traders alike waited with bated breath to see quite what the impact would be on both earnings guidance and companies’ capex plans.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his key takeaways from the earnings releases on both sides of the Atlantic. They discuss which sectors fared better than others, the impact of the tariffs, how to navigate the current market conditions, and much more.

00:32   Introduction
01:02   US Q1 earnings releases       
01:58   Europe’s earnings season
02:48   Share price reactions
03:32   What happened to guidance?
04:42   Tariff impact on capex
05:26   What about hyperscalers?
06:31   Sell in May …
08:17   Navigating recession risk
09:34   Summary and conclusion

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US assets slumped last week, with the US dollar, Treasuries, and stocks selling off following President Trump's warning of fresh tariffs on the European Union. The pessimism on US assets is also reflected in recent data. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 from 52.2 in the month, and surveys show that Americans intend to do fewer road trips this summer despite falling gasoline prices.

Investors are now seeing merit on diversifying out of the US, and gains have been seen in local currency stocks and bond markets. Local currencies have also performed well, with the weaker greenback creating opportunities for Asian central banks, such as Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to cut rates. In Hong Kong, the slump in the US dollar pushed the Hong Kong dollar towards the strong end of the band, prompting intervention from the Hong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to defend the currency peg. We expect more abrupt interventions from the HKMA from here, as investor positioning and flows are likely to weigh on the Hong Kong dollar and HIBOR.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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In this episode of the Week in Markets, equities research analyst Louis Chua explores how the equity and debt markets have reacted to the 90-day truce in the trade war between the US and China, and what are some of the lingering concerns to watch over the next 90 days. Overall, while the financial markets have reacted with relief, we believe that the US fiscal situation remains far from being solved, and we would take advantage of the current opportunity to add diversifying exposure outside the US. In the long term, an end to US exceptionalism and foreign investors’ asset allocation decisions to diversify away from the US can have a significant impact to equity and fixed income markets.

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The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed’s direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on 15 May. 

In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments. 

This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away’ could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.

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US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.

Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile,​​Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

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The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?

Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.

(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)

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US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.

00:31 Introduction
01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?
03:24 What is the expected timeline now?
05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?
06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma
08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US
09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets
10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?
12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now
15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen
16:23 Historic moves in bond markets
18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space
20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment
22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?
23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio
26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China
27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification
29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season
30:29 Oil prices under pressure
31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year
33:31 Outro

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Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House’s attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House’s attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.

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As global markets reel from the fallout of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, gold is once again thrust into the spotlight. Despite a recent pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen by around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.

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In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more. 

Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer. 

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Like in the Star Wars movie “The Phantom Menace”, the taxation of trade routes is leading to turmoil, including market turmoil. Bond and oil prices suggest the economy is about to abruptly slow down, following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements. The hope is the rest of the world will quickly come and negotiate with Trump, and some are. But the largest bilateral trade relationship is between China and the United States. China has called his bluff, raising its tariff on US imports to 52%.

Comparisons of indicators such as volatility ratios, deviations from averages and investor sentiment between today and previous flash crashes, all indicate high chances of the S&P 500 index being higher a year from now. But fundamentally, there’s no way to know what things will look like a year from now. We expect US valuations to compress and valuations to expand, as foreign savings fund domestic growth in Europe and China.

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New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump’s ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

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The second inauguration of Donald Trump has resulted in something of an upheaval for equity markets. The imposition of tariffs, or the threat of them, has led to uncertainty and heightened volatility, prompting a rotation out of US megacap stocks and into European and other global equity markets. It’s not an easy time to pick stocks.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about his team’s approach to stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that may offer the best opportunities in the months ahead.

00:31 – Introduction and background
02:37 – The impact of tariffs
03:25 – Our preferred Regions/Sectors
05:20 – Our stock-picking process
06:46 – Financials and Industrials
09:36 – Information Technology
10:32 – Stand-out subsectors
14:00 – Balancing equity portfolios in the current environment
15:43 - Conclusion
16:20 – Legal disclaimer

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This year, the S&P 500 index has been in what technical analysts call a “broadening formation” of wider swings, that signals increasing volatility and typically precedes large price moves. While the second Trump administration is less chaotic​​ than the first, it is overwhelming any opposition with a blitz of activity. The thinking is there is no time like the present, and it’s better to do the hard things first to get any economic slowdown they might cause out of the way, before mid-term elections are held in November next year. Meanwhile, the uncertainties Trump has created have ignited animal spirits in long-dormant and lazy economies, and by extension their stock markets.

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The world is witnessing a rapid shift towards de-globalisation, accelerated in part by the new US administration. Meanwhile, ongoing disputes over tariffs, trade imbalances, and the widening US fiscal deficit continue to dominate global discussions.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer, is joined by Vance Serchuk, Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute. They discuss the implications of these issues on the global economy, and examine which regions are well-positioned to thrive amid this increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.  

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There has been a significant correction in US markets since mid-February, with the S&P index down around 8%, and the Nasdaq down around 12%. Surprisingly, this has come on the back of reasonably good earnings from the previous quarter and forward-looking guidance. This shift in investor sentiment appears to be driven by rising policy risks, and a decrease in the "Trump put" effect - the market's previous belief that government intervention would support asset prices.

In this episode, Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, shares his expectations for markets, sectors we favour, and insights on the bond markets in this uncertain environment.

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Germany’s surprise €500bn infrastructure plan marks a historic break from fiscal restraint, shaking up markets and boosting European stocks.
Meanwhile, US economic uncertainty under Trump is fueling recession fears, pushing Treasury yields down and challenging USD strength.
We also break down Japan’s bond market surge and what it means for global investors.
This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

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The initial read of the third session of China's 14th National People Congress has been generally in line with economist expectations. Concurrently, ongoing shifts in US policies, especially on tariffs, continue to disrupt the broader macro narrative. Surprisingly, Hong Kong stocks have rallied steadily amidst these developments, whilst US stocks have reacted much more negatively. What is our outlook for these markets, and what does it mean for the US dollar?

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. This episode was recorded on 6 March, 2025.

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An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China’s “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6.

This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

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With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios?
 
In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today.
 
Key topics include:

• (01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets
• (05:01) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening?
• (06:45) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right?
• (08:51) - The US dollar’s strength and its implications for emerging markets
• (10:18) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets
• (12:41) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns
• (13:32) - The evolving role of CDS
• (14:09) - Lessons from past market drawdowns
• (15:07) - Common misconceptions about credit investing
• (16:54) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the implications of two European-centric developments – the freshly concluded German Federal Elections which has returned the conservatives to power, and the growing likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Both developments are positive for risk, with equities – in particular, cyclical stocks – likely to benefit. 
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s Q4 2024 earnings numbers, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, are both scheduled for release in the coming week. Whether they meet, miss or beat will determine if markets can end February on a positive note.

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European stock markets have excelled so far this year but to what extent does this reflect the continent’s economic health and what is the outlook for investing in Europe going forward? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about how he expects inflation in Europe to develop, the European Central Bank’s next steps, and what impact US President Trump’s threat of tariffs might have on the region. They also discuss potential opportunities for investors.

00:37 Introduction
01:01 Europe’s economy – lack of competitiveness has created downward pressure on wages
03:13 Expectations from the ECB
05:12 Underlying inflation pressure is weakening
06:53 Will a bigger interest rate differential lead to a weaker euro?
08:20 Tariff threats and what it means for Europe
10:10 Is the lack of competitiveness in Europe partly due to the euro?
11:46 What factors may lead to an improvement in the European economy?
14:00 Potential opportunities for investors
15:28 The automotive industry
16:59 Will geopolitics create more challenges or opportunities for Europe?
19:15 How significant is the upcoming German election and what could a new government focus on?
20:46 Summary

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Inputs from US inflation indices released last week infer a January core Personal Consumption Expenditure reading of 0.27% month on month, lower than the 0.3% the consensus expects. January retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest decline since March 2023. Together, these data should reverse talk that rates would have to go up again this year. US President Donald Trump is now talking about reciprocal tariffs, which would be much less punitive than the 25% on Canada and Mexico he had been talking about before. US and Russian officials say they will start talks on ending the war in Ukraine in coming days. Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment this week that will be attended by the big technology company founders/CEOs.

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With a mixed set of US jobs data last week, investors are looking to this week’s inflation numbers and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony for clearer guidance on the Fed’s next steps. In China, optimism is rising with DeepSeek’s disruption of the AI sector and better-than-feared impact from Trump’s tariffs. We also discuss the role of Gold and Bitcoin in risk hedging.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

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In addition to the typical seasonal tailwinds from the Chinese New Year, three key factors are also driving the recent rally in Chinese equity markets: the better-than-feared impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, growing domestic optimism following the release of China’s DeepSeek AI, and rising policy expectations ahead of the National People’s Congress in March.

Join Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, as they dive each of these key developments shaping China's market landscape.

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Research Analyst at Julius Baer, highlights how Chinese AI start up DeepSeek has upended traditional assumptions underpinning growth in the AI sector. This spells opportunities and risks for players in different parts of the supply chain. 
In other developments, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at its January Open Market Committee Meeting hints at possible inflation pressures, while President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are classic shock and awe tactics that herald the start of a period of political noise and uncertainty.

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Every day we read new statistics about how much investment is needed to maintain ageing infrastructure and to build new infrastructure that will keep pace with modern economies.  Governments can only provide a portion of the trillions of US dollars needed every year, making private investment essential.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Introduction to Private Infrastructure’, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors, Julius Baer talks to Tara Courtney Davies, Partner and Co-Head of KKR EMEA and Co-Head European Infrastructure, about private infrastructure: what it is, as well as its relevance to investors. In their conversation they discuss the important dynamics and developments investors should know about, and the role it can play in a sophisticated portfolio.

00:41 Introduction to speakers and topic
01:42 What is infrastructure?
02:27 What characterises infrastructure assets?
03:43 Global infrastructure needs
04:24 Tailwinds fuelling infrastructure investment
06:02 The role of private investment
06:34 Private infrastructure investment in a portfolio context
08:43 Risks to consider when investing in infrastructure 
10:34 Incorporating infrastructure assets into appropriate portfolios
11:43 Considerations regarding semi-liquid investment products
12:46 Conclusion

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Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

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There was a clear relief rally in both the stock and rates market, following softer-than-expected US CPI numbers last week. In the grand scheme of things however, asset pricings have swung between growth and inflation or policy shocks over the past year. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, discusses the significant treasury moves over the past year, the implications of the latest CPI print, and what to watch out in rates and equities markets.

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Cracks in market sentiment have begun to surface in the first three weeks of 2025. A slew of negative headlines and rumours include the outgoing Biden administration placing several Chinese tech giants on the “Chinese Military Companies” list, and the tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration continue to be an overhang on markets. How do we see the US-China trade relationship in 2025, and how should investors position accordingly? Our experts also discuss the key US inflationary drivers to watch out for in 2025, and the path for the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities given the recent policy announcements from the People’s Bank of China.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

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In this episode of the week in markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger-than-​expected non-farm payrolls data for December has pushed up Treasury yields, resulting in a yawning gap in US and Chinese government bond yields. This has put downward pressure on the Chinese Yuan – although it is not the only currency in Asian expected to soften. The Singapore Dollar, hitherto one of the stronger currencies in Asia, is also likely to weaken this year as inflation ebbs. US consumer and producer price inflation data out this week, and Q4 2024 earnings releases by financial heavyweights will likely determine if the US equity market can trek higher. 

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In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate and Intelligence, to discuss the latest developments in real estate and how investing in the ‘living’ sector can also be an investment in your quality of life. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership.

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The S&P 500 index’s internal indicators signal a top may be in the making. After two years of returns in excess of 20%, the index trades at a pricey forward price/earnings ratio of 22x. Renewed inflation concerns could be a catalyst for a serious correction. We remain fully invested but contemplate reducing risk at some point in the year. While the consensus among Wall Street strategists is that the S&P will rise 12% this year, studies show their accuracy as a group is less than 50%. As a group, they’ve also never predicted a down year, while in fact one in four years has historically had a negative return.

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In its December 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation is going to be higher than it expected. If the Fed has to raise rates again at some point next year, the market would not like that at all. The S&P 500 index has returned 60% in the last 2 years, and is trading at valuations seen only in the dot-com and pandemic stimulus booms.
But the final phase of a bull market can last a painfully long time for those who try to be contrarian. We remain invested, but contemplate reducing risk at some point in 2025. It will be a year of capital preservation, after 2 years of capital growth.

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A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world’s largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns.

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In 2024, we witnessed the normalisation of many economic variables, notably inflation and growth, clearing the path for monetary policy easing in the US and Europe. Looking to 2025, with a new Republican administration in place in the US there will be plenty of changes to digest. Our analysts believe that the key to success will be closing significant fiscal, geopolitical, and corporate deals whilst also achieving economic growth. What does this mean for financial markets and those who invest in them?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2025 – The art of the real deal’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the market environment, why they expect broadening equity returns, and which sectors are set to benefit from likely growth and policy shifts in 2025.

00:37 Introduction to topic and speakers
01:06 Broad expectations for 2025
02:08 Monetary policy oulook
02:43 Trump tariff implications for Europe
03:18 Trump tariff implications for Asia
04:45 Equity preferences in Asia
06:19 Developed market equity stance
06:57 Preferred cyclical sectors
07:35 The impact of the Republican sweep
10:02 USD bond opportunities
10:27 EUR bond opportunities
11:02 The duration sweet spot
11:29 Emerging market bonds
11:49 Our view on gold’s outlook
12:44 Next Generation: Cloud computing & AI; Extended longevity
14:39 Next Generation: Future cities
15:14 Summary of our outlook for 2025
15:50 Closing comments

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As our world continues to be riven by instability and conflict, global wealth inequality is becoming one of the most pressing matters of our time. With the divide between the haves and the have nots continuing to grow, increasing numbers of people are dedicating their time and resources to tackling this societal imbalance as generational attitudes to creating impact and having social purpose are changing. This episode of Beyond Markets features CEO of the Julius Baer Foundation Laura Hemrika discussing the state of modern philanthropy and how people can get involved and is hosted by John Franklin, Marketing Specialist at Julius Baer.

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President-elect Trump has threatened steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS economies. Are these bold threats a negotiating tactic, or could they reshape global trade? Our experts discuss the potential impact on China, its domestic policies, stock market, and the Yuan.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

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​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index’s total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it’s not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​

Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng index

Past performance and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance. Returns reflect all ongoing charges excluding transaction fees. All investments have inherent risks, and investors may not recover their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

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The growing demand for solar power is fueling concern about a looming shortage of silver. But how much of this is fact, and how much is speculation? What does the future hold for this essential metal?
Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they dive into the data and uncover the realities of silver’s supply, demand, and its role in energy transition.

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The Economist magazine ran a story recently, titled “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?”. It epitomizes the view that many have taken; although the US economy is only 25% of the world economy, its stock market is 75% of world stock market capitalization.

Yet the reasons for this are not without merit. Companies would rather list on the US stock market than those of their home countries. Further tax cuts are likely to happen in the US. And its economy has emerged from the pandemic more powerful than any other. As a case in point, a decade ago the GDP per capita of the United States and Canada were almost the same. This year, that of the US is expected to be $86,000, and Canada’s just $54,000.

US economy, stock market, tax cuts, December, strategist S&P 500 index forecasts, Canada, Mexico, BRICs, tariffs, sanctions

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The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus.

00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker

01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season

02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season

03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings

04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally?

06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks

08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight

09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps

10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral

12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 7

12:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors

14:28 What to take away from the conversation

15:18 Closing comments

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Following the shift in the political landscape, Julius Baer experts expect higher nominal growth driven by both real growth and inflation in the US. Given less room for rate cuts, they anticipate yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral next year. Although it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade and fiscal policy, investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets. 

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near-term outlook and strategy for fixed income going into 2025.

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In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

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The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital.

On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. 
In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

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US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?

In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.

• (00:00) - Intro
• (00:48) - A strong mandate for Trump
• (01:52) - US equities surge post-results
• (02:49) - Does the equity bull market have legs?
• (03:39) - Antitrust on Big Tech - What now?
• (04:49) - Strong outlook for equities
• (06:40) - Sharp moves in Treasury yields
• (09:04) - Will the Fed continue on its interest rate path?
• (10:09) - The future of an independent Fed and Powell
• (12:22) - What's driving the Dollar?
• (13:35) - Impact of tariffs vs. potential bigger fiscal deficit
• (14:32) - Quick thoughts - Gold, crypto, large/mid-caps, oil & gas, renewable energy,  EVs, healthcare, banks, defence, China, Japan, Germany
• (20:41) - Summary

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In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week’s US Presidential election. 
We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up.

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US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China’s NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan’s general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead?

This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

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In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year.

00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic
01:00 – What is technical analysis?
03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?
04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?
06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?
07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?
08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?
09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?
10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?
11:30 – Closing remarks

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, we provide a review of the latest press conference of China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), how investors see it and the outlook of the Chinese equity market going forward.  We also briefly discuss the latest outlook of the Fed interest rate, the implications of the US Presidential election and the ongoing reporting season. 

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of​ Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.  

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As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next?

Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil.

00:19 Introduction

00:41 Our gold and oil forecast

01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices?

2:52 Asia and Western demand

3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings

5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases

6:02 Speculative gold positioning

7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs

8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle?

9:25 Recession risks

10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil

11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go?

12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil?

14:01 The supply and demand picture

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data has spooked US markets, while the much awaited press conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Tuesday disappointed. More economic data releases in upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity as to the likelihood of ‘no landing’ in the US and the slowdown in China. We expect the Asian REITs to continue doing well as expectations of lower rates remain intact.

This episode was recorded on October 8, 2024.

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In this episode we are joined by Damien Ng, one of Julius Baer’s next generation analysts, to discuss the background and economic significance of obesity drugs.

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

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In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

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The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors.

This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.​

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head​ of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

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At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut. 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors.

00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers
01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?
04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?
08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?
13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?
15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?
17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?
20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?
23:07 - Closing remarks

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We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.

00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers
01:16 – Our approach to stock selection
02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 2024
04:13 – Information Technology: our preferences
06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma
09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities
11:22 – Opportunities across sectors
12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks
13:33 – Summary and conclusion

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Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year.

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On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country.

Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape.

1:15     The significance of the US presidential election

3:29    How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy?

6:06   Trump’s energy policy and inflation

8:18    Can the Fed keep its independence?

9:34    Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact

11:53    How can investors position in a Trump sweep?

13:19    Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact

15:37    Do price controls actually work?

18:37    How might a Harris victory impact the economy?

20:20    Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet?

21:38    What the polls are saying

23:07    Predicting the outcome

24:30    A very tight race

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