Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief Transistor (https://transistor.fm) https://feeds.transistor.fm/adler-am-bitcoin-morning-brief A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice. © Axel Adler Jr. e6f8a04d-6862-588f-82b1-ba66e2ad80d0 yes en Thu, 11 Jun 2026 02:28:03 -0500 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 02:29:03 -0500 https://axeladlerjr.com https://img.transistorcdn.com/e-4Fo_yBo9Sv2z9dnrOi6XZjgKitoP6FSJJYwlBAzbY/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:1400/h:1400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9iYWFl/ZjgzNDQ3NWIxYTli/ZmJhYjRmNmM2YTVj/OTAyMy5wbmc.jpg Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief https://axeladlerjr.com episodic Axel Adler Jr. A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice. A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing Axel Adler Jr. No No The Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone 189 189 The Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone full 6cc2244b-a06f-4194-b62d-067caa23063d https://axeladlerjr.com/the-puell-multiple-is-declining-miners-are-entering-the-stress-zone/ Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

]]> Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2026 02:28:00 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1325 Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No $12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate 188 188 $12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate full 96fdcc84-cf68-4630-b0f7-e3bd0ea64982 https://axeladlerjr.com/12b-left-the-network-loss-taking-sales-dominate/ Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

]]> Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:49:40 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1070 Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No 22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32 187 187 22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32 full 61810abd-05dd-4cbc-9856-ae023b881a2a https://axeladlerjr.com/22-days-of-net-losses-mvrv-z-cooled-to-0-32/ For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

]]> For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:50:47 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1250 For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Price is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage 186 186 Price is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage full 0db0cc8c-abb5-4fb2-a434-47fe246ccc56 https://axeladlerjr.com/price-is-rising-open-interest-is-falling-a-rebound-without-new-leverage/ Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

]]> Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2026 03:28:23 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1081 Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K 185 185 Bitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K full 53bd2d64-ebf6-4c94-9243-517ac4a149d2 https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-tests-the-february-low-7b-in-losses-nearest-support-54k/ Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

]]> Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:48:25 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1240 Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No $62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme 184 184 $62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme full 73881636-a6c7-4644-9f7d-f6cddcfa25a4 https://axeladlerjr.com/62k-under-pressure-again-fear-at-the-extreme/ Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

]]> Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2026 02:32:51 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1330 Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again 183 183 Bearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again full 39a554d0-baa1-4776-8624-01691fb3d71d https://axeladlerjr.com/bearish-impulse-accelerated-to-59-taker-order-pressure-is-moving-negative-again/ Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

]]> Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

]]> Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:11:11 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1214 Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No The May Rally Has Been Erased: Bitcoin Under Pressure From Spot and Futures 182 182 The May Rally Has Been Erased: Bitcoin Under Pressure From Spot and Futures full f6a3de71-2ca0-421a-863b-5d865e6c97e1 https://axeladlerjr.com/the-may-rally-has-been-erased-bitcoin-under-pressure-from-spot-and-futures/ Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

]]> Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

]]> Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:53:47 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1001 Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bitcoin Volatility Fell 56%: The Spring Is Loaded 181 181 Bitcoin Volatility Fell 56%: The Spring Is Loaded full d08bc0d5-f58f-4143-b888-5acec531990a https://axeladlerjr.com/volatility-fell-56-premium-compressed-the-spring-is-loaded/ Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

]]> Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

]]> Mon, 01 Jun 2026 03:30:14 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1196 Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No 7,048 BTC Were Withdrawn From IBIT, Strategy Wallets Sent Coins to Coinbase Prime 180 180 7,048 BTC Were Withdrawn From IBIT, Strategy Wallets Sent Coins to Coinbase Prime full 17fa6902-deba-417f-829b-6ca0a205c23c https://axeladlerjr.com/7-048-btc-were-withdrawn-from-ibit-strategy-wallets-sent-coins-to-coinbase-prime/ BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

]]> BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

]]> Fri, 29 May 2026 03:09:07 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 382 BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Sellers are returning, buyers are leaving 179 179 Sellers are returning, buyers are leaving full 7ac30156-018c-470b-8fb2-44b83668c4ca https://axeladlerjr.com/103k-btc-to-exchanges-over-30-days-sellers-are-returning-buyers-are-leaving/ BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

]]> BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

]]> Thu, 28 May 2026 03:24:35 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1256 BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Sellers Regain Control: Why Bitcoin's Rebound Is Losing Fuel 177 177 Sellers Regain Control: Why Bitcoin's Rebound Is Losing Fuel full fecddfdf-f1b3-4c76-86c6-820a9047fe05 https://axeladlerjr.com/sellers-are-taking-back-control-taker-score-collapsed-from-84-to-31-in-24-hours/ Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.

]]> Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.

]]> Tue, 26 May 2026 03:13:36 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1246 Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Sellers Increase Pressure: +34K BTC in One Week 176 176 Sellers Increase Pressure: +34K BTC in One Week full 27ac808e-f3ef-405b-9883-e6e93121cbeb https://axeladlerjr.com/sellers-increase-pressure-34k-btc-in-one-week/ In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly -16K BTC in outflows.

Together, these flows created around 34K BTC of local supply pressure. The key question is whether ETF demand can return quickly enough to absorb exchange-side selling risk, or whether BTC remains in a short-term risk-off regime.

]]> In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly -16K BTC in outflows.

Together, these flows created around 34K BTC of local supply pressure. The key question is whether ETF demand can return quickly enough to absorb exchange-side selling risk, or whether BTC remains in a short-term risk-off regime.

]]> Mon, 25 May 2026 03:29:19 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 340 In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly -16K BTC in outflows.

Together, these flows created around 34K BTC of local supply pressure. The key question is whether ETF demand can return quickly enough to absorb exchange-side selling risk, or whether BTC remains in a short-term risk-off regime.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Sellers are Pressing: STH Underwater, Network Realizes Losses 175 175 Sellers are Pressing: STH Underwater, Network Realizes Losses full 48861faa-24c1-4a20-be77-2cc9f388cc01 https://axeladlerjr.com/sellers-are-pressing-sth-underwater-network-realizes-losses/ May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative territory for the first time in a month.

]]> May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative territory for the first time in a month.

]]> Fri, 22 May 2026 02:26:44 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 678 May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative territory for the first time in a month.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bitcoin Bounced Toward $77K, but Coinbase Premium Shows No Demand From the U.S. 174 174 Bitcoin Bounced Toward $77K, but Coinbase Premium Shows No Demand From the U.S. full 1a2401a7-7159-4a05-9b44-44f4755c5722 https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-bounced-toward-77k-but-coinbase-premium-shows-no-demand-from-the-u-s/ BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break down why Coinbase Premium remains negative, what range-bound Open Interest says about derivatives participation, and why the current move still looks more like technical relief than a structural reversal. This is an analytical discussion of Bitcoin market structure and macro risk, not financial advice.

]]> BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break down why Coinbase Premium remains negative, what range-bound Open Interest says about derivatives participation, and why the current move still looks more like technical relief than a structural reversal. This is an analytical discussion of Bitcoin market structure and macro risk, not financial advice.

]]> Thu, 21 May 2026 02:24:14 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1179 BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break down why Coinbase Premium remains negative, what range-bound Open Interest says about derivatives participation, and why the current move still looks more like technical relief than a structural reversal. This is an analytical discussion of Bitcoin market structure and macro risk, not financial advice.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bullish Impulse Broken: Macro Pressure Intensifies 173 173 Bullish Impulse Broken: Macro Pressure Intensifies full ff56d5d2-0edb-4c31-9cb2-8605bb6e41c3 https://axeladlerjr.com/bullish-impulse-broken-macro-pressure-intensifies/ In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow Impulse has moved into negative territory for the first time since early April, while the US 30-year Treasury yield has broken higher to 5.20%, tightening conditions for risk assets. The discussion focuses on whether this is a temporary tactical setback or a deeper shift in market structure, and what institutional investors should watch as macro risk rises. This episode is for market analysis only and is not financial advice.

]]> In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow Impulse has moved into negative territory for the first time since early April, while the US 30-year Treasury yield has broken higher to 5.20%, tightening conditions for risk assets. The discussion focuses on whether this is a temporary tactical setback or a deeper shift in market structure, and what institutional investors should watch as macro risk rises. This episode is for market analysis only and is not financial advice.

]]> Wed, 20 May 2026 01:42:53 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1289 In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow Impulse has moved into negative territory for the first time since early April, while the US 30-year Treasury yield has broken higher to 5.20%, tightening conditions for risk assets. The discussion focuses on whether this is a temporary tactical setback or a deeper shift in market structure, and what institutional investors should watch as macro risk rises. This episode is for market analysis only and is not financial advice.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Supply in Profit Recovered to 63%, but STH-SOPR Has Not Held Above 1.0 172 172 Supply in Profit Recovered to 63%, but STH-SOPR Has Not Held Above 1.0 full d1395e4d-ab1a-4523-aae6-3e481c49eab7 https://axeladlerjr.com/supply-in-profit-recovered-to-63-but-sth-sopr-has-not-held-above-1-0/ Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.

]]> Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.

]]> Tue, 19 May 2026 02:14:12 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 380 Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Bears Are Back in Control of the Bitcoin Market Structure 171 171 Bears Are Back in Control of the Bitcoin Market Structure full f9459284-4d6e-49c6-ac4a-36646e03c500 https://axeladlerjr.com/bears-are-back-in-control-of-the-bitcoin-market-structure/ Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

]]> Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

]]> Mon, 18 May 2026 03:00:37 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1391 Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Three attempts - zero breakouts: STH are capping growth near $82K 170 170 Three attempts - zero breakouts: STH are capping growth near $82K full 19127dc7-79a9-4e5b-8955-68517987fdc9 https://axeladlerjr.com/three-attempts-zero-breakouts-sth-are-capping-growth-near-82k/ Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

]]> Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

]]> Fri, 15 May 2026 02:14:01 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1424 Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No The Bulls Are Running Out of Steam: Taker Pressure Is Falling, Funding Remains Negative 169 169 The Bulls Are Running Out of Steam: Taker Pressure Is Falling, Funding Remains Negative full 98ba6217-39dc-400c-99c5-3589ddb3e524 https://axeladlerjr.com/the-bulls-are-running-out-of-steam-taker-pressure-is-falling-funding-remains-negative/ A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

]]> A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

]]> Thu, 14 May 2026 02:37:53 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 351 A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No STH Loss Pressure Hits Zero as Bitcoin Holds Above $80K 168 168 STH Loss Pressure Hits Zero as Bitcoin Holds Above $80K full 84a8370e-dee3-4d0c-991c-b827aabf9fe2 https://axeladlerjr.com/sth-loss-pressure-pressure-has-dropped-to-zero-market-structure-is-changing/ Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

]]> Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

]]> Wed, 13 May 2026 01:49:12 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1203 Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No Retail in Bitcoin Is Back in the Game: Demand Rose from -8.2% to +4.4% in 6 Weeks 167 167 Retail in Bitcoin Is Back in the Game: Demand Rose from -8.2% to +4.4% in 6 Weeks full 73b632ed-21a4-48da-ab77-1e76d53a7ecf https://axeladlerjr.com/retail-in-bitcoin-is-back-in-the-game-demand-rose-from-8-2-to-4-4-in-6-weeks/ Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.

In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.

The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.

Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.

]]> Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.

In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.

The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.

Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.

]]> Tue, 12 May 2026 05:48:44 -0500 Axel Adler Jr. Axel Adler Jr. 1180 Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.

In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.

The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.

Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.

]]> bitcoin, btc, crypto, market analysis, on-chain, macro, ETF flows, derivatives, investing No