Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

New BTC buyers near breakeven, 3-6M cohort underwater

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:44:40 -0500

Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.

MVRV Z-Score Falls to 0.41: Correction Without Capitulation

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 02:39:31 -0500

MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.

LTHs are Realizing Losses, but Their Cost Basis is 30% Below the Market Price

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 04:42:17 -0500

LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so most of the cohort remains in profit. The main stress is now concentrated among STHs, whose cost basis is above the market price.

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64.6K, but Fresh Demand has not Returned

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 02:54:20 -0500

The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain negative. Supply is aging and leaving circulation, supporting the price, but fresh demand has yet to return.

Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2026: Macro & ETF Outlook

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 01:57:40 -0500

Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.

Bitcoin remains in the high-stress zone: the indicator reached 71.5

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:32:08 -0500

This brief shows how the balance of supply in profit and loss has changed over the past year and how stress has evolved during the past month. The picture remains strained, but the indicator is still far from previous extremes, while weekly momentum has only started to turn higher.

Bitcoin sentiment is deteriorating, but the market is not in the Fear zone yet

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 03:44:54 -0500

The market is still in the Neutral zone, but sentiment continues to deteriorate and is approaching the Fear threshold.

Bitcoin is Shifting from Speculators to Long-Term Holders

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:37:54 -0500

The short-term holder share is near multi-year lows, while the long-term holder share has approached historical highs. This points to lower coin turnover and resilience among long-term holders, but it does not yet confirm a return of demand.

The market is boring, but stress is back for the second time in three days

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 02:46:45 -0500

Local stress rose to 16 points. The impulse was driven almost entirely by price movement, while exchange flows and derivatives do not confirm it.

Bitcoin Price Remains Weak While Exchange Flows Stay Neutral

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 02:39:24 -0500

Price weakness has not been accompanied by an increase in supply on exchanges. BTC inflows continue to decline, while Netflow remains neutral. Coins are not accumulating on exchanges in volumes that would point to rising sell-side pressure, but there is also no meaningful reduction in liquid supply that could support the price.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rose to 56%, but the Quarterly Trend Remains Negative

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:14:11 -0500

Around 56% of BTC supply is now in profit, compared with 47% at the June low. Market structure has improved, but the 90-day change remains negative: the profitable supply base is recovering, yet it is still well below where it stood three months ago.

Bitcoin valuation is four times lower than its historical average

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 01:07:22 -0500

Bitcoin is in an undervaluation zone based on the MVRV Z-Score, but full capitulation, marked by the metric falling below zero, has not occurred. Realized P/L points to easing selling pressure, but there is still no confirmation of a cycle bottom through capitulation.

Holders' Realized Losses exceeded the 2022 peak by 19%

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:30:26 -0500

We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.

US Investors are buying Bitcoin again: ETFs have drawn $439M so far this week

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 02:31:00 -0500

The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the return of positive ETF flows confirms that the market structure is improving.

Volatility Has Fallen 31% in July, Leverage Is Declining: Liquidation Cascade Risk Has Decreased

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 03:13:20 -0500

This brief examines what is happening inside the volatility compression. Low volatility is neutral on its own - its meaning depends on the direction of positioning. Leverage is currently declining, so the risk of a sharp move amplified by a liquidation cascade is lower than it was a month ago.

Stablecoins Have Been Leaving Exchanges for 35 Straight Days: Demand Is Absent

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:48:09 -0500

This brief examines the balance between supply and demand through exchange flows. As long as stablecoins continue to leave exchanges and Bitcoin does not enter an accumulation phase, the price lacks the fuel needed for a sustained move higher.

New capital inflows near yearly lows, STHs continue selling at a loss

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 02:51:30 -0500

This brief examines how weak inflows of new capital coincide with short-term holders realizing losses. Young coins account for a minimal share of realized capitalization, STH SOPR remains below 1.0, and both indicators have only just started recovering from their local lows.

Long-Term Holders Accumulated 371,000 BTC Over the Past 30 Days

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 02:11:07 -0500

Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.

Bullish Signal Strengthens as Indicator Agreement Reaches 79%

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 02:47:15 -0500

This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed.

Bitcoin Gains 3% in 24 Hours on Fresh Demand

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:06:38 -0500

We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions.

Market Underwater: Adjusted NUPL Below Zero for Six Weeks

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:09:17 -0500

The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate Adjusted NUPL and LTH readings reached their lows later. All three metrics have now converged near -0.13 and are recovering in sync.

Open Interest Falls 12% in 24 Hours: The Market Is Shedding Leverage

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:51:18 -0500

The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are being closed and excess leverage is being flushed out than a structural move lower. But buying momentum has weakened noticeably.

STHs are buying the dip like in February: seller pressure is easing

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 02:29:03 -0500

Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed selling pressure and price positioning in the lower part of the cohort range point to an accumulation zone.

The rally attempt failed: sellers pushed Bitcoin lower again with $92.7M in sell pressure

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 01:23:39 -0500

This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local weakness in buyer flow.

The Fuel is running out: Stablecoin Market Cap has shrunk by $3 Billion

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 03:00:47 -0500

A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure remains in place.

Strategy Sells 3,588 BTC, but Price holds near $63K

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 03:08:52 -0500

The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a change in strategy. Price held up, but derivatives positioning cooled noticeably.

Leverage demand has recovered: futures are trading above spot for the first time in a month

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 02:35:28 -0500

The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the positioning index has shifted back above zero.

Bitcoin Bottom 2026? First BUY Since Nov 2022, Not Confirmed

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 01:13:56 -0500

This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has already moved into the reversal zone, while the slower one still needs more time to reach the threshold.

Buyers are pushing the price higher, but without open interest growth the bounce is stalling

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 02:44:13 -0500

A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.

Exchange Inflows are 50% above February, SOPR is Holding Below 1.0

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:57:12 -0500

The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.

LTH Hold a Record 16M BTC as MVRV Approaches a Three-Year Low

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 01:24:06 -0500

A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.

135K BTC Has Left US Bitcoin ETFs

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 02:38:53 -0500

A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.

Fifth month of selling at a loss, but holder support still sits below the market

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 02:22:49 -0500

Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below the current price, so for now this looks like a controlled decline rather than a full capitulation.

Strategy (MSTR) is down 78% from its peak

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 01:20:17 -0500

This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer. The logic is simple: the longer this proxy stock trades deeply underwater, the higher the risk that the burden of dividends and debt will eventually reach Bitcoin itself.

Bullish demand has dropped to zero - fuel is now on the side of the shorts

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 03:46:23 -0500

A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.

Short-term holders are losing capital: -56%, while LTH show almost no drawdown

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:37:01 -0500

This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost no drawdown. The logic is simple: the pain is real, but it is concentrated in weak hands. The market structure does not yet look like a full cycle-wide capitulation.

Fresh capital is not entering Bitcoin, support is holding at $58.4K

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 04:07:03 -0500

Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market is being held by old hands, not fresh demand.

Gold was bought back, Bitcoin was not: BTC fell below $64K after the Fed

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 01:36:13 -0500

This brief is about the Fed's hawkish pause and how differently assets reacted: gold was bought after the drop, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The logic of the issue is BTC's relative weakness as a signal of a shift toward risk-off.

The Second Capitulation Wave Is Almost Twice as Weak as February’s Panic

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 02:36:56 -0500

This brief is about the second wave of capitulation and why the fading strength of the selloff matters more than the panic itself. The logic is simple: if the second wave of losses is weaker than the first, it more often points to seller exhaustion.

$60K becomes the new accumulation zone: the cycle's potential bottom is $48K

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:50:49 -0500

This brief is about how holder conditions and fundamental valuation have converged in the same zone. Supply moved deeply underwater around $60K, while CVDD shows where the market's structural bottom level sits.

The rally off $60K: bullish taker demand is back, Funding Rate remains positive

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 01:55:20 -0500

The bounce off $60K is being driven by returning buyers, not a short squeeze. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 days, while Funding Rate stayed positive for 10 straight days from June 6 to June 15. That means the rally is being supported by aggressive demand, but at the same time it shows that long leverage is starting to build up again.

Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges and increasing sell pressure, while stablecoins are leaving

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:50:10 -0500

This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin outflows deprive the market of fuel for a rebound.

The Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 02:28:00 -0500

Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

$12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:49:40 -0500

Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:50:47 -0500

For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

Price is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 03:28:23 -0500

Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

Bitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:48:25 -0500

Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

$62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 02:32:51 -0500

Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

Bearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:11:11 -0500

Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

The May Rally Has Been Erased: Bitcoin Under Pressure From Spot and Futures

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:53:47 -0500

Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

Bitcoin Volatility Fell 56%: The Spring Is Loaded

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 03:30:14 -0500

Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

7,048 BTC Were Withdrawn From IBIT, Strategy Wallets Sent Coins to Coinbase Prime

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 29 May 2026 03:09:07 -0500

BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

Sellers are returning, buyers are leaving

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 28 May 2026 03:24:35 -0500

BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

Sellers Regain Control: Why Bitcoin's Rebound Is Losing Fuel

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 26 May 2026 03:13:36 -0500

Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.

Sellers Increase Pressure: +34K BTC in One Week

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 25 May 2026 03:29:19 -0500

In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly -16K BTC in outflows.

Together, these flows created around 34K BTC of local supply pressure. The key question is whether ETF demand can return quickly enough to absorb exchange-side selling risk, or whether BTC remains in a short-term risk-off regime.

Sellers are Pressing: STH Underwater, Network Realizes Losses

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 22 May 2026 02:26:44 -0500

May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative territory for the first time in a month.

Bitcoin Bounced Toward $77K, but Coinbase Premium Shows No Demand From the U.S.

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 21 May 2026 02:24:14 -0500

BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break down why Coinbase Premium remains negative, what range-bound Open Interest says about derivatives participation, and why the current move still looks more like technical relief than a structural reversal. This is an analytical discussion of Bitcoin market structure and macro risk, not financial advice.

Bullish Impulse Broken: Macro Pressure Intensifies

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 20 May 2026 01:42:53 -0500

In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow Impulse has moved into negative territory for the first time since early April, while the US 30-year Treasury yield has broken higher to 5.20%, tightening conditions for risk assets. The discussion focuses on whether this is a temporary tactical setback or a deeper shift in market structure, and what institutional investors should watch as macro risk rises. This episode is for market analysis only and is not financial advice.

Supply in Profit Recovered to 63%, but STH-SOPR Has Not Held Above 1.0

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 19 May 2026 02:14:12 -0500

Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.

Bears Are Back in Control of the Bitcoin Market Structure

Axel Adler Jr. — Mon, 18 May 2026 03:00:37 -0500

Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

Three attempts - zero breakouts: STH are capping growth near $82K

Axel Adler Jr. — Fri, 15 May 2026 02:14:01 -0500

Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

The Bulls Are Running Out of Steam: Taker Pressure Is Falling, Funding Remains Negative

Axel Adler Jr. — Thu, 14 May 2026 02:37:53 -0500

A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

STH Loss Pressure Hits Zero as Bitcoin Holds Above $80K

Axel Adler Jr. — Wed, 13 May 2026 01:49:12 -0500

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

Retail in Bitcoin Is Back in the Game: Demand Rose from -8.2% to +4.4% in 6 Weeks

Axel Adler Jr. — Tue, 12 May 2026 05:48:44 -0500

Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.

In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.

The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.

Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.